1A.

STEP 1
(YUSRIL SAPUTR)

jml penumpang Time(x)

Past period 1 7 -11
Past period 2 8 -9
Past period 3 6 -7
Past period 4 10 -5
Past period 5 14 -3
Past period 6 15 -1
Past period 7 13 1
Past period 8 12 3
Past period 9 14 5
Past period 10 16 7
Past period 11 15 9
Past period 12 17 11

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STEP 2
(YUSRIL SAPUTRA) Summary
Measure Value Future Period Forecast
Error Measures 13 18,05
Bias (Mean Error) 0 15 18,94
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 1,2 17 19,83
MSE (Mean Squared Error) 2,88 19 20,72
Standard Error (denom=n-2=10) 1,86 21 21,61
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,11 23 22,5
Regression line 25 23,4
jml penumpang = 12.25 27 24,29
+ ,45 * Time(x) 29 25,18
Statistics 31 26,07
Correlation coefficient ,88 33 26,96

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STEP 3
(YUSRIL SAPUTRA) Solution
jml
Time(x) x^2 x*y Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
penumpang
Past period 1 7 -11 121 -77 7,35 -,35 ,35 ,12 ,05
Past period 2 8 -9 81 -72 8,24 -,24 ,24 ,06 ,03
Past period 3 6 -7 49 -42 9,13 -3,13 3,13 9,79 ,52
Past period 4 10 -5 25 -50 10,02 -,02 ,02 0 0
Past period 5 14 -3 9 -42 10,91 3,09 3,09 9,53 ,22
Past period 6 15 -1 1 -15 11,8 3,2 3,2 10,21 ,21
Past period 7 13 1 1 13 12,7 ,3 ,3 ,09 ,02
Past period 8 12 3 9 36 13,59 -1,59 1,59 2,52 ,13
Past period 9 14 5 25 70 14,48 -,48 ,48 ,23 ,03
Past period 10 16 7 49 112 15,37 ,63 ,63 ,4 ,04
Past period 11 15 9 81 135 16,26 -1,26 1,26 1,59 ,08
Past period 12 17 11 121 187 17,15 -,15 ,15 ,02 0
TOTALS 147 0 572 255 0 14,43 34,57 1,36
AVERAGE 12,25 0 47,67 21,25 0 1,2 2,88 ,11
Next period forecast 18,05 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Intercept 12,25 Std err 1,86
Slope ,45

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1B.
STEP 1
NAIVE METHOD (YUSRIL
SAPUTRA)
JUMLAH TURIS
Past period 1 ,5
Past period 2 1
Past period 3 2
Past period 4 1,5
Past period 5 2,5
Past period 6 2,7
Past period 7 2,4
Past period 8 2,5
Past period 9 2,7
Past period 10 4,4
Past period 11 3
Past period 12 3,5

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STEP 2
(TREND ANALYSIS) YUSRIL SAPAUTRA

JUMLAH TURIS
Past period 1 ,5
Past period 2 1
Past period 3 2
Past period 4 1,5
Past period 5 2,5
Past period 6 2,7
Past period 7 2,4
Past period 8 2,5
Past period 9 2,7
Past period 10 4,4
Past period 11 3
Past period 12 3,5

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STEP 3
(LEAST SQUARES) YUSRIL SAPUTRA

JUMLAH TURIS Time(x)

Past period 1 ,5 -11
Past period 2 1 -9
Past period 3 2 -7
Past period 4 1,5 -5
Past period 5 2,5 -3
Past period 6 2,7 -1
Past period 7 2,4 1
Past period 8 2,5 3
Past period 9 2,7 5
Past period 10 4,4 7
Past period 11 3 9
Past period 12 3,5 11

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STEP 4
SOLVE
Measure Value Future Period Forecast
Error Measures 13 4,06
Bias (Mean Error) 0 15 4,32
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) ,42 17 4,58
MSE (Mean Squared Error) ,24 19 4,83
Standard Error (denom=n-2=10) ,54 21 5,09
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,23 23 5,35
Regression line 25 5,6
JUMLAH TURIS = 2.391667 27 5,86
+ ,13 * Time(x) 29 6,12
Statistics 31 6,38
Correlation coefficient ,88 33 6,63

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STEP 5
(SOLVE) Details and Error Analysis
JUMLAH
Time(x) x^2 x*y Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
TURIS
Past period 1 ,5 -11 121 -5,5 ,98 -,48 ,48 ,23 ,96
Past period 2 1 -9 81 -9 1,24 -,24 ,24 ,06 ,24
Past period 3 2 -7 49 -14 1,49 ,51 ,51 ,26 ,25
Past period 4 1,5 -5 25 -7,5 1,75 -,25 ,25 ,06 ,17
Past period 5 2,5 -3 9 -7,5 2 ,49 ,49 ,24 ,2
Past period 6 2,7 -1 1 -2,7 2,26 ,44 ,44 ,19 ,16
Past period 7 2,4 1 1 2,4 2,52 -,12 ,12 ,01 ,05
Past period 8 2,5 3 9 7,5 2,78 -,28 ,28 ,08 ,11
Past period 9 2,7 5 25 13,5 3,03 -,33 ,33 ,11 ,12
Past period 10 4,4 7 49 30,8 3,29 1,11 1,11 1,23 ,25
Past period 11 3 9 81 27 3,55 -,55 ,55 ,3 ,18
Past period 12 3,5 11 121 38,5 3,81 -,31 ,31 ,09 ,09
TOTALS 28,7 0 572 73,5 0 5,09 2,86 2,78
AVERAGE 2,39 0 47,67 6,13 0 ,42 ,24 ,23
Next period forecast 4,06 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Intercept 2,39 Std err ,54
Slope ,13

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1C.

STEP 1
(NAIVE METHOD)

JUMLAH
HOTEL
Past period 1 250
Past period 2 270
Past period 3 300
Past period 4 310
Past period 5 325
Past period 6 375
Past period 7 380
Past period 8 385
Past period 9 390
Past period 10 400
Past period 11 410
Past period 12 420

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STEP 2
LEAST SQUARE

JUMLAH
Time(x)
HOTEL
Past period 1 250 -11
Past period 2 270 -9
Past period 3 300 -7
Past period 4 310 -5
Past period 5 325 -3
Past period 6 375 -1
Past period 7 380 1
Past period 8 385 3
Past period 9 390 5
Past period 10 400 7
Past period 11 410 9
Past period 12 420 11

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STEP 3
SOLVE
Measure Value Future Period Forecast
Error Measures 13 451,59
Bias (Mean Error) 0 15 467,03
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 11 17 482,47
MSE (Mean Squared Error) 198,24 19 497,9
Standard Error (denom=n-2=10) 15,42 21 513,34
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,03 23 528,78
Regression line 25 544,21
JUMLAH HOTEL = 351.25 27 559,65
+ 7,72 * Time(x) 29 575,09
Statistics 31 590,52
Correlation coefficient ,97 33 605,96

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STEP 4
(SOLVE) Details Error and Analysis
JUMLAH
Time(x) x^2 x*y Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
HOTEL
Past period 1 250 -11 121 -2750 266,35 -16,35 16,35 267,2 ,07
Past period 2 270 -9 81 -2430 281,78 -11,78 11,78 138,84 ,04
Past period 3 300 -7 49 -2100 297,22 2,78 2,78 7,73 0
Past period 4 310 -5 25 -1550 312,66 -2,66 2,66 7,06 0
Past period 5 325 -3 9 -975 328,09 -3,09 3,09 9,58 0
Past period 6 375 -1 1 -375 343,53 31,47 31,47 990,27 ,08
Past period 7 380 1 1 380 358,97 21,03 21,03 442,32 ,06
Past period 8 385 3 9 1155 374,41 10,59 10,59 112,24 ,03
Past period 9 390 5 25 1950 389,84 ,16 ,16 ,02 0
Past period 10 400 7 49 2800 405,28 -5,28 5,28 27,88 ,01
Past period 11 410 9 81 3690 420,72 -10,72 10,72 114,85 ,03
Past period 12 420 11 121 4620 436,15 -16,15 16,15 260,95 ,04
TOTALS 4215 0 572 4415 0 132,06 2378,93 ,38
AVERAGE 351,25 0 47,67 367,92 0 11 198,24 ,03
Next period forecast 451,59 (Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Intercept 351,25 Std err 15,42
Slope 7,72

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1D. STEP 1
REGRESI

JML
JUMLAH TURIS JML HOTEL
PENUMPANG
Observation 1 7 ,5 250
Observation 2 8 1 270
Observation 3 6 2 300
Observation 4 10 1,5 310
Observation 5 14 2,5 325
Observation 6 15 2,7 375
Observation 7 13 2,4 380
Observation 8 12 2,5 385
Observation 9 14 2,7 390
Observation 10 16 4,4 400
Observation 11 15 3 410
Observation 12 17 3,5 420

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STEP 2
SOLVE
Measure Value
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error) 0
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 1,08
MSE (Mean Squared Error) 2,39
Standard Error (denom=n-2-1=9) 1,78
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,11
Regression line
JUMLAH TURIS = -4,1
+ 1,06 * JML PENUMPANG
+ ,04 * JML HOTEL
Statistics
Correlation coefficient ,9
Coefficient of determination (r^2) ,81

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STEP 3
(SOLVE) Detail and Error Analysis
JUMLAH JML JML
Forecast Error |Error| Error^2 |Pct Error|
TURIS PENUMPANG HOTEL
Observation 1 7 ,5 250 6,26 ,74 ,74 ,55 ,11
Observation 2 8 1 270 7,58 ,42 ,42 ,18 ,05
Observation 3 6 2 300 9,82 -3,82 3,82 14,59 ,64
Observation 4 10 1,5 310 9,68 ,32 ,32 ,1 ,03
Observation 5 14 2,5 325 11,33 2,67 2,67 7,11 ,19
Observation 6 15 2,7 375 13,51 1,49 1,49 2,22 ,1
Observation 7 13 2,4 380 13,39 -,39 ,39 ,15 ,03
Observation 8 12 2,5 385 13,69 -1,69 1,69 2,86 ,14
Observation 9 14 2,7 390 14,1 -,1 ,1 ,01 0
Observation 10 16 4,4 400 16,3 -,3 ,3 ,09 ,02
Observation 11 15 3 410 15,21 -,21 ,21 ,04 ,01
Observation 12 17 3,5 420 16,13 ,87 ,87 ,76 ,05
TOTALS 147 28,7 4215 0 13 28,66 1,38
AVERAGE 12,25 2,39 351,25 0 1,08 2,39 ,11
(Bias) (MAD) (MSE) (MAPE)
Betas -4,1 1,06 ,04 Std err 1,78

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1E.
(untitled)

JUMLAH
JUMLAH TURIS
PENUMPANG
Observation 1 ,5 7
Observation 2 1 8
Observation 3 2 6
Observation 4 1,5 10
Observation 5 2,5 14
Observation 6 2,7 15
Observation 7 2,4 13
Observation 8 2,5 12
Observation 9 2,7 14
Observation 10 4,4 16
Observation 11 3 15
Observation 12 3,5 17

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 (untitled) Summary
Measure Value
Error Measures
Bias (Mean Error) 0
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) ,4
MSE (Mean Squared Error) ,28
Standard Error (denom=n-2-0=10) ,58
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) ,26
Regression line
JUMLAH TURIS = -,61
+ ,25 * JUMLAH PENUMPANG
Statistics
Correlation coefficient ,85
Coefficient of determination (r^2) ,72

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JADI ESTIMASI JUMLAH TURIS = -.61