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Factors in Deciding Metro Rails in Developing Countries: A study on the

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Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners ISSN 2075-9363
Vol. 3, December 2010, pp. 33-51,  Bangladesh Institute of Planners

Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries:

A study on the proposed Metro Rail system for Dhaka
Md. Saniul Alam*

Abstract
While metro schemes have been suitable investments for some western cities and some
Asian cities, like Hong Kong and Singapore, they are not necessarily the most appropriate
options for cities in developing countries. Although urban transport problems, like
congestion and pollution seem to be similar everywhere, the suitability of a metro solution
is more questionable for cities in developing countries owing to their distinctive social,
economic and spatial characteristics, and their existing transport technologies and the
travel habits of their inhabitants. A critical examination of such issues is undertaken for
the proposed metro for Dhaka. The study concludes that due to high population densities,
transport users favour metro rail construction. On the other hand, the existing spatial
structure of the city, patterns of land use, economic aspects and existing trip
characteristics suggest metro is an inappropriate choice.

Introduction
Mass rapid transit projects are often taken by the government of developing countries.
Developing countries in Asia are undertaking rail based system especially metro1 as a
solution to solve the problems of urban traffic congestion and for meeting rapidly
increasing travel demand. This is also targeted for controlling environmental pollution
and boosting up economic growth. Experiencing projects in Hong Kong and Singapore,
and cities in South Asian countries, like Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta (India) and Dhaka
(Bangladesh) are found to rely on metro for the growing travel demand as ultimate
solution.
For developed world, Walmsley and Ken Perrett (1992) identified several reasons why
countries like Canada, France, Germany and the United States adopted rapid rail transit
systems. Along with environmental goal achievement, cities with increasing economic
growth planned for rapid transit to make it congestion-free, faster and reliable for the
movement of people. Golias (2002) argued that any new public transport system should
be based on the perceived impacts, such as increased market share for public
transportation, reduced automobile dependence, positive effects on environment and
urban development. Among them, most important and common issue is to reduce car
use and increase the use of public transport. On the other hand, developing cities choose
metro mainly to meet the high travel demand which often can not reduce congestion. A
study on mass rapid transit in 13 developing countries (whose aim were to increase
capacity of public transport and the quality of services) was carried out by Halcrow Fox

* Transport Planner, AQUA Consultant & Associates Limited, Dhaka.

Email: [email protected], [email protected]
1 Metros – these are fully segregated, usually elevated or underground. It is the segregation that is critical to
providing a rapid service, and the technology that allows a high mass ridership to be carried (Halcrow,
2000).
34 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

and Associates who concluded that none of the developing cities got a notable reduction
of traffic congestion by implementing metro system (David Walmsley and Ken Perrett
1992, p.106). Calcutta in India is one of the prime examples of financial loss by metro rail
in developing countries (Singh, 2002). Similarly, there are a number of failures in
developing countries despite having high transport demand for developing metro that
could be differed from the developed world. Thus, Godard and Lequeux (1998) claim
that metro seem to be applicable only for developed country for reducing congestion or
managing travel demand. In his words, to escape from an existing situation of public
transport is often unfavorable or even intolerable. However, Knowles and Fairweather
(1991) mentioned that investment on light-rail may have an impact on reducing
congestion but there is no guarantee to do so. Having such controversy, why Bangladesh
is going for metro is analyzed here from different perspectives.
The government of Bangladesh approved a long-term mega project (Strategic Transport
Plan, STP 2005) to establish an integrated environment-friendly traffic management
system in greater Dhaka reducing troublesome traffic congestion. From a set of
investment options including road with Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) or Metro Rail Transit
(MRT) or various combinations of these (along various level of road investment), the
recommendation was in favor of BRT and MRT along with moderate investments on the
improvement of roads as a solution to meet the challenges of the future transport
demand of Dhaka. The planned Metro rail in Dhaka is about 60 km. in length and is
comprised of three lines (MRT in green, grey and purple lines in Figure 2). This could be
a good response to the prevailing worse traffic situation. It, however, raises some
questions which cannot be ignored in any circumstances. These issues also provide some
indications to think about further assessment of metro considering different aspects
before going to implement the project desperately. This research is an endeavor on that
pursuit.

Framework of Analysis
Analysis includes critical assessment of the major issues which have definite impact (or
vice versa) on Metro rail primarily. The assessment was done in two different ways: by
qualitative analysis of some issues indicated by key interviewees who are knowledgeable
about the current research problem; and secondly, by advanced quantitative assessments
where different regression models were used for transport behavior analysis to explore
the user characteristics and modeling their mode choice characteristics. Details about the
methods of study e.g. data collection, sample size, data analysis are discussed in relevant
sections.
Study Area Characteristics
Location: According to Hossain (2008) Dhaka is the largest urban center and capital of
Bangladesh accommodating nearly 40 percent of the total urban population in the
country. It is about 360 sq. km in area (Dhaka City Corporation) which accommodates 10
million people at the moment making it one of the most populated cities in the world
(Bangladesh Bureau of statistics, 2009; The Daily Star, 12 November, 2006).
Transportation Network and transport modes: Strategic Transport Plan (2005)
mentioned that the land use for transportation is between 6% and 10%. Andaleeb et al.
(2007) provides more accurate result of 8% roadway, specifying that two-thirds of these
roads are non-engineered surfaces which are very low compared to most developing
countries of 13% (ADB 2002).
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 35

List of components of prime concern

Qualitative Land use and Spatial Density and Economic

analysis local issue structure financial issue aspect

Trip characteristics and user behavior analysis

Quantitative Existing trip characteristics- Mode selection attributes-

analysis analysis using RP data sensitivity analysis using SP data

Fig. 1: Methodology of analysis

The road network of Dhaka city is composed of 199 kilometers of primary roads, 109
kilometers of secondary roads, 152 kilometers of collector roads, and about 2540
kilometers of access roads and others (Quium, 1995 cited in Alam J 2009). The prime
public transport is buses. According to BRTA, 16,000 buses are running on the city roads
to meet transport demand of 7.5 millions trips (Staff Correspondence, 2010). However,
registered vehicles e.g. bus (Table 1) in Dhaka are low compared to those of currently
running in the street. Recently, on April 14, 2009, bus route franchising was introduced in
30 kilometers of roadway (Anon n’d).

Table 1: Registered vehicles in Dhaka

Vehicle type Number Percentage
Motor Car 147283 27.93
Jeep/St. Wagon/ Microbus 58608 11.12
Taxi 10682 2.03
Bus 8210 1.56
Minibus 8317 1.58
Truck 30015 5.69
Auto-rickshaw/ Auto-tempo 14820 2.81
Motor-Cycle 219443 41.62
Others 29907 5.67
Source: BRTA, Dhaka, 2010

According to STP and BRTA, the number of automobiles in Dhaka (cars, jeeps, station
wagons, pickup trucks and small vans) increased significantly in the recent years from
80,000 in 1994 and 166,000 in 2003 to 205,891 in 2010. According to registered fleet, the
auto ownership is about 16 per 1,000 population or 1 per 15 households (STP 2005). In
36 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

any consideration, the primary mode is rickshaw2 (except walk) e.g. BRTA mentioned
currently 8.4 millions trips are done by rickshaws (Staff Correspondence 2010). Dhaka
Urban Transport Project (DUTP) and STP found that the modal share is always
significant for rickshaws and pedestrians (20% and 34% respectively).

Analysis of the Research Components

Trip characteristics and behavioural Aspect: Most of the big cities in developing
countries can be characterized by insufficient mass transport provision which triggers
massive congestion on road and cause of longer travel time. To response to the problem,
the policy makers often chose the expensive metro projects in order to remove congestion
and meeting the increasing transport demand. Such thinking is not often well justified
because of a question about sustainability. It is almost impossible to bear huge capital
cost by a developing country itself. Most of the cases, it is found that the developing
countries hardly can built metro lines in every well demand corridors and serve the
network efficiently. Policy makers of Bangladesh support metro although the country has
poor economic condition to meet traffic demand. What is the response of transport users
in this respect is a burning question. This section tries to reveal what are the users’
perceptions and their major characteristics. To analyze the trip characteristics and travel
behavior, the study includes revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP)
methods and these are included in the questionnaire. In RP, existing travel behaviour has
been analyzed responding to different questions, where SP is analyzed by the predicted
travel behavior on the basis of the answers that respondents have provided while they
are given different alternative scenarios to choose.
The sampling frame in the study includes people who are using the routes that follow the
proposed metro lines. For each three types of questionnaires, samples are taken by non-
probability sampling method3 more specifically ‘convenience sampling’ (although a
widely regarded problem is to define who will be in the sample, transport users are
easily identified in this case and careful survey overcomes the other problem of biasness).
Face to face data collection also ensures the sample of the intended users, those using
bus, rickshaw or car. Thus, other primary mode users are almost omitted from the
beginning of the study. For each of the experiments, two sample points for each primary
mode user were chosen and data has been collected on five consecutive days (Table 2).
Total sample size for each mode is more or less 100 and in each location about 50
questionnaires have been conducted. Survey locations were selected either interchanging
stations or people gathering places within 200 meters of the route (Figure 2). The other
consideration for choosing sample locations were on the basis of the principal mode
dominating the area and being within 200 meters of the planned metro route, for
instances in Gulshan area (car dominating area) or old Dhaka (rickshaw dominated area)
and other areas (Table 2).

2 Rickshaws (non-motorized transport) can be characterized by many aspects, such as it provides

door-to-door service, highly individualized service and it is environment friendly as no fuel is
needed.
3 Each member of the population has an unknown probability of being selected.
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 37

Table 2: Questionnaire survey sample location, time and date

Survey Sample Sample Description Time, Date Experiment Type
no. User Location
1 Bus Mirpur 10 Bus stop 8am- 2pm, 15-07-09 Bus v Metro
2 Rickshaw Eastern Plaza Shopping Area 3pm- 6pm, 15-07-09 Rickshaw v Metro

3 Bus Eden Mohila Bus stop 12pm- 6pm, 16-07-09 Bus v Metro
college
4 Car Basundhara International 11am-4pm, 17-07-09 Car v Metro
Shopping area shopping complex
5 Rickshaw BUET area, old Student area 10am-1pm, 18-07-09 Rickshaw v Metro
Dhaka
6 Car Gulshan Gulshan 10am-4pm, 19-07-09 Car v Metro
commercial
/shopping area

Impact of different socio-economic aspects on user perception: Whether perception

about the metro to reduce congestion is supported by the different respondents has been
examined by ordinal regression. The influence of more variables on a particular issue
having ordered opinion exits, the ordinal regression analysis can be used. The formula of
ordinal regression model, is – Ln (θi)= αi - βX, where θi can be θ1, θ2…….. θk. means,
probability of (score of 1) / probability of (score greater than 1) , similarly, probability of
(score of 1 or 2) / probability of (score greater than 2) or Probability of (score of 1, 2, or 3)
/ probability of (score greater than 3). Each logit has different α value but have same β
which means that the influence of the independent variable has the same for different
logit. This assumption provides the influence of the variables on the scale value. The
results (Table 2) suggest that some of the influencing factors are significantly associated
with decreasing (as variables are strongly agree, agree, unsure, disagree and strongly
disagree, responses moving from strongly agree to agree means support in favor of
metro reduces) support for metro rail and in some cases factors are negatively associated
with decreasing support for metro rail. The variables- economic status, gender, and
income level and trip frequency are significantly associated with decreasing support
metro rail. However, income level shows the opposite result that was expected: the
decreasing support of the people of middle class and below (35000 taka or below/ £318
or below per month) increased with congestion reduction perception by metro decreased.
This means that the middle and lower middle class people do not have high exception
about metro congestion reduction capability.
Car availability and age variables have no significant effect on the perception. But,
economic status (employed full or part time), gender (male) and trip frequency (4+ per
week) have significant effect and negative value of the co-efficient shows that support are
decreasing with the decreasing support for the metro, however middle class and below
people have opposite opinion. This is completely logical if we consider that employed
and frequent trip (more than 4 which are mostly work trips) makers use the road and
suffer mostly by the congested traffic condition. The following tests are also supporting
the arguments.
38 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

Survey no 1: Metro
Vs Bus

Survey no 6: Metro
Vs Car

Survey no 4: Metro
Vs Car

Survey no 2: Metro
Vs Rickshaw

Survey no 3: Metro
Vs Bus

Survey no 5: Metro
Vs Rickshaw

Source: Modified on Map from STP 2005

Fig. 2: Showing the Metro route and potential sample locations in the Study area

Table 3: Influence of different criteria on the perception of congestion reduction by metro

Estimated coefficient Standard error Significance
Constant (Strongly agree)a -.368 .420 .412
Constant(Agree) a 1.346 .434 .000
Constant (Unsure) a 3.128 .567 .000
Car availability(Car) a .142 .258 .581
Economic status(Employed, full or part time) a -.287 .310 .059
Gender(Male) a -.352 .324 .078
Income level(middle class and below) a .284 .745 .039
Age 24-54(Working class age) a .110 .275 .623
Trip frequency (4 and more) a -.189 .374 .051
a Strongly agree, Agree and Unsure are the level of agreement for reduced congestion criterion;
reference categories are ‘no car’ for Car availability, Unemployed, keeping house, Student and
retired for economic status; Higher income group ( 35000+ taka/£318+ per month) for income level;
16-24 and 55+ for age and less than four trips per week are considered.
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 39

Impact of extra journey time and frequency on user perception: From the congestion
tolerance perspective, whether the proposed metro will reduce congestion or not, the
respondents provided answers on a similar five point scale (strongly agree, agree,
unsure, disagree, strongly disagree). Thus, the chi-square test on those answers with
extra time and trip frequency separately provides a valuable opinion. The first test
indicates a significant association between the congestion reductions expected with the
extra congestion time experienced usually (In these analysis, the first two and last two
responses are coded as positive and negative respectively about the effect and unsure
was omitted from the analysis).
From Table 4, it is found for positive responses that observed counts are greater for
above 11 minutes extra time than the expected counts which means that positive view
about the metro increases with the increased extra time needed.

Table 4: Chi-square table showing relationship between perception about metro and
assumed extra time needed
Extra time Total
0-4 min 5-10 min 11-15 min 16-20 min 21+ min
Perception Positive Count 27 44 29 48 82 230
on Expected
24.1 55.1 28.4 46.5 75.8 230.0
congestion Count
Negative Count 1 20 4 6 6 37
Expected
3.9 8.9 4.6 7.5 12.2 37.0
Count
Total Count 28 64 33 54 88 267
Expected
28.0 64.0 33.0 54.0 88.0 267.0
Count
Note: Significant Association, Pearson Chi-Square value 22.78 (df =4) p =.001

The second test result found that the trip rate is significantly associated (p= .003) with
congestion perception. The research hypothesis is accepted that expectation of the metro
reducing congestion increases as more trips are made. Table 5 reveals that a positive
view of congestion reduction have differences in the observed and expected count for
higher trip frequencies and as observed count is greater it means that the variables have
significant association.

So, employed and regular trip makers, who need longer extra time to complete the trips
have great exception about the metro for congestion reduction.
Road user perception on congestion: To explore whether there is any co-relation among
total journey time and extra time, an analysis has been conducted. The analysis
considered, whether half of the total travel time differs from the assumed (extra)
congestion time, considering mean, median and distribution or not. For analyzing the
query, the t-test has been performed and following result obtained. So, the null
hypothesis has difference between sampling variation.
40 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

Table 5: Chi-square showing relationship between perception about congestion reduction

ability of metro and trip frequency
Trip frequency in a week Total
less than 1 2-3 4-5 6 and more
Perception positive Count 42 56 64 68 230
on
Expected Count 53.4 58.6 58.6 59.4 230.0
congestion
Negative Count 20 12 4 1 37
Expected Count 8.6 9.4 9.4 9.6 37.0
Count 62 68 68 69 267
Total Expected Count 62.0 68.0 68.0 69.0 267.0

Significant Association, Pearson Chi-Square value 30.925 (df=3), p =.001

Table 6: Output of t-test between half time of destinations and assumed extra time
N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Half of total travel time 299 19.3980 11.23963 .65000
Assumed extra time 292 20.2534 14.70690 .86066
Note: No Significant difference, p =.427
The test confirmed that there is no significant variation between means; alternatively,
there is no variation between half of the time needed for total travel time and congestion
time.

Table 7: Output of Mann-Whitney Test between half time of destinations and assumed
extra time
N Mean Rank Sum of Ranks
Half time 299 296.76 88730.00
Extra time 292 295.23 86206.00
Total 591
Note: No significant variation, p =.913

Similarly, from the Mann-Whitney Test (Table 6) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (Z = 1.03,
p = .238), it is found that there is no significant difference in median and distribution
between half of total travel times and extra congestion time. Thus, it is easily
understandable that road users always consider a significant proportion of the total
journey time for extra/congestion time regardless of trip length. Thus, longer trip makers
considered longer extra time. Although, the extra time does not accurately represent the
actual congestion time in Dhaka, the user perception on the congestion time shows the
worse traffic congestion scenario. The longer trips makers are, however, optimistic about
metro.
Captivity on mode selection: Respondents’ use of alternative modes, is quite interesting
(Table 8). The sample was divided according to whether or not respondents planned
their journey in advance (which means whether they select mode choice before the
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 41

journey they performed). Bus users who have planned ahead, use alternative modes
more than any other users. If they do not have an advance plan, this trend is still found
although it is less prominent. It means that they are more choice riders rather than
captive ones. On the other hand, car users are less eager to change the mode in any
circumstances.

Table 8: Use of alternative modes by different mode users whether they have advance
plan or not
Primary mode (usually use) Total
People who plan in
advance Rickshaw Bus Private car
Yes Use Alternative mode 17 23 15 55
Doesn’t Use Alternative mode 23 7 68 98
Total 40 30 83 153
No Use Alternative mode 11 25 1 37
Doesn’t Use Alternative mode 29 57 13 99
Use Alternative mode 40 82 14 136

Thus it is interesting to note that car and rickshaw users are more captive in natures that
are less likely to use alternative modes, but bus users are likely to use alternative mode.
So, apart from any other users, bus users have the probability to switch to new mode, if it
is introduced.

Table 9: The attributes for different experiments

Mode Attributes Value Unit Used in Experiment
/level
Metro Fare 8 and 14 Taka per km 1,2,3
Journey time 1 and 3 Minutes per km 1,2,3
service interval 10 and 20 Minutes (headway) between 1
services
Accessibility 1 and 3 Low accessibility for door to door 2,3
service on 5 point scale
Bus Fare 3 and 6 Taka per km 1
Journey time 8 and 12 Minutes per km 1
service interval 8 and 15 Minutes (headway) between 1
services
Car Cost 5 and 10 Taka per km 2
Journey time 6 and 8 Minutes per km 2
Accessibility 3 and 5 High accessibility for door to door 2
service on 5 point scale
Rickshaw Fare 5 and 10 Taka per km 3
Journey time 10 and 15 Minutes per km 3
Accessibility 3 and 5 High accessibility for door to door 3
service on 5 point scale

Note: Experiment 1 means Metro v Bus, Experiment 2 Means Metro v Car, Experiment 3 means Metro v
Rickshaw
42 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

Influence of attributes in mode choice: In a congested poorly served network, it is

expected that people will be biased on new mode. In a stated preference analysis, it
discovers the truth. The attributes (Based on mode characteristics) and their level
selection (determined by linear regression for 1km distance) is considered carefully in
Table 9 for three different experiments for comparison of metro with three prime modes.
The SP part of the questionnaire differs for three modes and are named as experiment 1
(Bus v Metro), experiment 2 (Car v Metro) and experiment 3 (Rickshaw v metro). The
binary logistics regression formula used in these experiments for analysis is-
Ln (probability of Y)/ (1- probability of Y)) = β 0 + β 1X1+β 2X2+β 3X3……..β kXk
Here, “probability of Y” represents the probability of using metro, while “1- probability
of Y” represents the probability of using the other modes e.g. rickshaw or car or bus etc;
β0 is the constant; β 1X1 represents co-efficient of the cost difference between the two
modes being considered, β2X2 represents co-efficient of journey time difference, β 3X3
represents co-efficient of service interval difference (experiment 1) and co-efficient of
accessibility of accessibility difference (experiment 2 and 3).

Table 10: Binary logistic regression output showing variable influence and significance
Variables Estimated Regression Standard
Co-efficient Error Significance

Metro-Bus Fare Difference -.204 .025 .001 (<.05, Significant)

difference
Time Difference .098(>.05, Marginally
-.061 .037
Significant)

‘Service interval’
-.030 .012 .014(<.05, Significant)
Difference

Constant 1.785 .382 .001(<.05, Significant)

Metro-Car Fare /cost
-.106 .025 .001(<.05, Significant)
difference Difference
Time Difference -.027 .070 .695(>.05, Not Significant)
Accessibility
.140 .061 .022(<.05, Significant)
Difference
Constant 2.082 .397 .001(<.05, Significant)
Metro- Fare Difference -.240 .033 .001(<.05, Significant)
Rickshaw
difference Time Difference .072 .043 .094(>.05, Not Significant)
Accessibility
.338 .059 .001(<.05, Significant)
Difference
Constant 3.065 .580 .001(<.05, Significant)

From Table 10, it is found that there is marginal or no influence of time on the mode
choice which is very interesting. This can be explained by the huge biasness towards
metro. Binary logistics regression should predict that the probability of choosing an
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 43

option from two modes will be the same if the influence of the variables, such as cost or
time do not differ between the modes. If the constant is statistically and significantly
different from zero then it indicates a bias in favor of one mode and against the other,
which can be estimated from. Using the equation: e constant /( 1+econstant), probabilities of
the modes are calculated, the results for all samples are given in Table 11.

Table 11: Enhancement of accuracy of the stated preference analysis

Metro v Bus Metro v Rickshaw Metro v Car
Sample constant Probability constant Probability constant Probability
scenario only (Metro) only (Metro) only (Metro)
All sample data 1.785 0.8236 3.06 0.955 2.08 0.8878
It is found that for three types of mode users, the people are very optimistic to metro
proposal which may not work in practice and inclusion of such issue in metro building
consideration may become very dangerous.

Land Use and Local Issues

Inadequate and ineffective development control, the prime residential areas are now
converted to commercial areas in Dhaka. Among them, Dhanmondi, Gulshan, Banani are
mentionable. Dhanmondi is now more commercial in nature than residential. Non
residential uses are increasing in Dhanmondi residential area. This was 28% in 1984, 35%
in 1993 and about 50% in the year 2000 (Hashem and Maqsud, 2001). Similar conditions
occur for other prime planned residential areas, such as Gulshan and Banani. Thus,
mixed land use often trigger multidirectional and short trips which are difficult to in-
corporate in transport modeling for big cities. This modeling problem is particularly
important for Dhaka having diverse category of land use including major share of
unplanned land use (Table 12) and narrow primary roads which are suitable for slow
modes especially Para-transit like rickshaw. Due to such land use of the city, its road
system has been developed in an unplanned way. To tackle such nature, STP considered
both Metro rail and Bus system development. Unfortunately, past evidence says that
such integration is hard to achieve. Halcrow (2000) noted that Integration with the bus
system is particularly necessary to metro viability, and often difficult to achieve.

Table 12: Land Use (%) of Dhaka City

Landuse Percentage (%)
Commercial/Industrial 3.81
Institutional/Educational Facility 3.07
Health Facility 0.41
Mixed 8.67
Planned Residential (including Dhanmondi and other residential areas) 13.47
Unplanned Residential 30.04
Road 7.33
Slum 0.22
Others 32.98

Source: Gani Bangla (2004) and Ishrat I. et al. 2009

44 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

In estimation of STP 2005 , the 76% of short trips, 34% modal share for rickshaw and 14%
walk (although HDRC 2005 estimated 23% share for walk) which means less scope for
longer trips. This is because the land use pattern of the city, which is very much
supportive to slow modes. Similarly, existence of different types of para transit is also a
problem for patronage gain due to fare competition. Babalik-E. (2002) pointed out that
low-income neighborhood may be unsuitable for rail operation, especially where modes
are not integrated and have higher possibility of getting fare competition.
Similarly, Walmsley and Perrett (1992) identified three factors of gaining patronage for
metro rail which are fare elasticities, the presence of alternative services and incorporate
facilities. Thus, presence of rickshaw, mini-bus will be definitely the competitor for the
short trips of metro in present land use. For a short trip, it is unlikely that people will go
to the metro to make such trips. Because of the access, egress time and waiting time, the
availability of rickshaw will be more attractive for short trips. Moreover, it will not be
expected every time that for 2 km journey, people will come to use metro because the
same journey by a rickshaw having 9 km/hr (an average speed of 5 to 12 km/hr over
distances of up to 40 km, Replogle 1992 cited in Rahman M.M et al n’d, p 3) speed will
take approximately 12 minutes. Similarly, people traveling 5-6 kilometer will not be
attracted to use metro as changing at stations will cause waste of considerable time.
Domencich, Kraft and Valette (1968) provided a more accurate view who estimated
elasticities of demand for public transit which revealed that demand would decrease by 7
percent for each 10 percent increase in access, egress, and waiting time.
Beside, if the proportion of trip time spent on the access and egress stages is considerable,
public transport trips will be considered a less suitable choice as these stages involve
much physical effort (Bovy and Jansen, 1979). Moreover, many Asian cities lack
underpasses and thus pedestrian have to cross roads at grade. Thus signal time plays an
important decision for modal choice for those potential passengers who have to come a
significant distance by crossing the road. So, the metro stations may not be highly
accessible, or to make most stations highly accessible grade separation or sophisticated
signaling system is needed which cost huge amount of money. Because, the existing
pedestrian facilities may become very crucial for metro as a mode choice as Hall and
Hass-Klau (1985) noticed that rapid transit in pedestrian zones get more patronage when
comparing rapid transit systems in Germany and Britain. Unfortunately, the existing
contest is disappointing. In Dhaka, there is only 400 kilometers of footpath where only
240km can be effectively used (STP, 2005 claimed that 40% of the city footpaths are
illegally occupied).

Spatial Structure of the City

The patronage for public transport sometimes depends on the spatial pattern of the city
which motivates to choose alternative mode of transport rather highly capable public
transport. However, urban rail becomes particularly important when high density urban
development expands to create distances that are too great for efficient bus transport,
and usually when employment remains centralized—Tokyo and Seoul being the obvious
cases. Whether rail-based system is indispensable or not in big developing cities for
efficient transport system, largely depends on the city characteristics and development
pattern. If the dense city expands horizontally but employment remains centralized,
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 45

road-based system alone like bus and private car may not be suitable to provide efficient
transport facilities to the mass people (WB 2000). Thus, developing cities having less
strong central business district (CBD) or having more sub-centers like Dhaka are not
likely suitable for metro.
In Dhaka, the one and only Central Business District (CBD) was once Motijheel. But, by
the time being new CBDs have emerged. A recent study (Ishrat I. et al 2009) mentioned
the city is more polycentric (city with multiple centers) in nature. Besides, emergence of
employment sub-centers triggers transport problems which are difficult to serve by
inflexible rail based system. From a transit perspective, polycentric cities are difficult to
serve, since their geography is a byproduct of changing land values, economic
agglomeration, and non-transit related functions. (Alonso 1964, Greene 1980, Kelly 1994,
Gordon and Richardson, 1996 and Anas et al. 1998, cited in Modarres A., 2003). It must
be remembered that decentralization, which is already observed in Dhaka has a negative
impact on transit use. Greene (1980 cited in Modarres A., 2003) suggests that the decline
of transit usage in American cities began in the 1950s, when decentralization of
employment began to occur. Consideration of urban form is also a very important issue.
Moreover, rail based system cannot match with high growth rate of the developing cities.
Considering the city characteristics of Dhaka, which has a very high population growth
and urbanization rate (having a 2% annual growth rate, Dhaka (DMDP)4 is expected to
have a population of 30 million by 2024 according to STP working paper, September
2004), will have less flexible option dealing with the pace of growth for rail based system.
According to Knowles and Fairweather (1991), the arterial nature of the rail based system
cannot serve as many people as bus or automobiles do, thus often regarded as slower for
door-to-door services. Moreover, STP provided warning that metro will not be suitable
for the growth of Dhaka city mentioning the evidence of Calcutta, Cairo and Shanghai
(STP working paper, September 2004).

Density and Financial Aspect

Babalik-E. (2002) identified several factors for successful rail operation mentioning that
local economic conditions also influence the success of urban rail system from the
perspective of revenue. Dhaka can be characterized by the densely populated area (2,500
people per square mile, Staff Reporter, 2005) with continuous shrinking land-person
ratio. This also provides some argument that there is scarcity of land for road-based
system and need higher capacity public transport. It must be remembered that higher
volume can be served by frequent road public transports than rail based only. But, the
assessment of the actual potentiality of existing main corridors was never evaluated. So,
there may be option for BRT system in Dhaka as in Bogota. The higher density is also
very much suitable for the use of public transport. Newman and Kenworthy (1989), who
collected data from many cities around the world, concluded that cities with higher
urban density were more dependent on viable public transport systems for travel.
Similarly, Gakenhemir (1990) noted that having market, the developing countries have

4DCC means Dhaka City Corporation area which is a part of DMDP area (Dhaka Metropolitan
Development Plan area comprise of 1590 sq. km) cited in Asian City Development Strategies:, City
Profiles n’d
46 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

“better chance of success” of building rail transit. However, Thomson et al. (1990)
concluded from several developing cities that metros in developing cities cannot be
financially viable but can provide a good economic return in right conditions. Although,
Dhaka is a capital city and its population density promises a good economic return, the
weak economic base makes it vulnerable for such expensive metro project.
It is reported in the literature that population under the poverty line in Dhaka is between
37 and 48 percent (Asian City Development Strategies: Dhaka n’d). Thus, there is a
chance for less patronage, if the fare per km is high compare to what they used to pay
now. However, meeting capital cost and operational cost, there is no chances of reduced
fare or competitive to existing fare.
If the infrastructure cost can be separated from the operating cost, the system may
become viable in financial terms. However, revenue generation if not as predictable, the
operating cost will rise. The fare will be up and more passengers will avoid metro. In
such cases, government will have to subsidize it. In such separation of infrastructure cost
from the operating cost, the funding will have to come from the external donor or from
general tax revenue which is very dangerous for the overall economy. If the argument is
to transfer the risk to the private sector, there is counter argument as an example is
already given by STP (2004). If loss is occurred, government will have to nationalize the
metro system and the subsidy cost would fall on tax payers.
The burden of metro may influence public finances is also mentionable. Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia has KILA and Monorail which have been suffering from serious shortfalls in
patronage. Bangkok and Singapore are the other two examples. Thus, the STP paper
mentioned “…regional illustration of the financial burden of expensive metro systems
carrying salutary warning for Dhaka” (STP working paper 6, 2004). Thus, this huge
density with poor financial condition will be no use, if they are considered as advantages
of patronage gain, even if the infrastructure cost is excluded for fare calculation.

Economic Aspects
“Many large cities seem to want metros, and those who can rationally afford them
should be developing such projects. Unfortunately, the link between the desire and the
means to afford them is not always made (Halcrow, 2000 pp 120). In the same research
paper, Halcrow mentioned that Metro has macro-economy effects whose call on
resources is large relative to national and city resources. So, such resource and its
opportunity cost for a country like Bangladesh should be a major concern. Even for
countries with better economic condition should be cautious in such investment.
Philippines found the opportunity cost of one BOT metro incur a public sector cost equal
to twice the Philippines’ annual transport budget. Similarly, Colombian national
government estimated that its 70% share of the construction cost of Bogota’s first metro
(a 30 kilometer line), would require a commitment of 30% of the total investment of the
national budget for the next decade. On the other hand, the 60-km metro railway has
estimated expenditure of Tk 10,000 crore (Ali, 2008) which is considerably a big amount
for Bangladesh.
Rahman (2008) mentioned for this case - “the core question for decision-makers is how
to balance the conflicting objectives of poverty alleviation (which implies a low
tariff/quality MRT system) and controlling congestion with its associated pollution and
safety costs (which implies a higher tariff/quality MRT system) within the means of
government budgets”. This will be very common for the developing countries, where
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 47

governments have to fight with the poverty. Moreover, Penalos, who scrapped proposals
for a LRT system and a metro before implementing BRT in Bogota, stated that “…..
generally they (third world upper class) prefer subways and metros, because they
imagine that by putting the poor underground, traffic problems will go away. Then rail
systems are chosen in Third World cities, limited funds permit building only a couple of
lines and that serves not more than 15 percent of daily trips” (Wroblewski, 2005 cited in
Rahman, 2007). This literature review provide a warning that inclusion of couple of
metro lines is questionable to serve the total daily trips of Dhaka using such huge
expenditure where a considerable share of people are below poverty line in Dhaka.
Dhaka cannot sustain the huge project cost by itself with its limited income (Bangladesh
Country Profile, Capital: Dhaka n’d). The financial strength of Dhaka is very low
although some Asian countries also opened metro at the same economic condition.
Halcrow (2000) mentioned that to be successful in metro project per capita income of the
city population must be at least $1800, where in Bangladesh5 per capita income is about
$599 (Priyo 2008) marked below the requirement. Beside, Bangladesh with maximum
growth trend6 in GDP will reach Philippine’s present condition in 2025 who found the
opportunity cost is extremely high for metro rail, having a comparatively better economic
position.
The Calcutta metro system has suffered serious financial loss from the metro rail.
According to Singh (2002), forecast of passengers was 623.7 million by 2000 but only 55.8
million passengers used the system in 1999-2000, which was about one eleventh of the
estimated traffic. The estimated revenue loss was $ 1.09 million in 1990-91 which has
become $ 12.96 million in 2000-01. The key identified issues behind the loss are parallel
bus services, high sensitivity to fares and excess staffing. Some issues are found similar
for Dhaka, like parallel para-transit services, sensitivity to fare (Table 10 & 11).

3 00 0

2 50 0
Bangladesh Today
2 00 0
Bangladesh today
GDP/Head ($)

1 50 0
2025
1 00 0

50 0

0
m
yp ndo s

ng am R
a

Ba des dia

h
nd

ka

G n
ab ia

m
te

05
.

or n

sh o w
ep
ne

ne

ig
di

ta

iu
PD
ra

a
A r es

es

na
an
la

20
Ti hut

H
In

ed
ew i s
R
pi

du

de h L
ui

b
n
ai

-L

et
N ak
iL
ilip

sh
M
h
Th

on

Vi

La

s
P
Sr

de
ng de
Ph

m
H

C
Eg I

la
Ba gla
la
t,

ng
ua

la
n

Ba
Ba
p
Pa

Source: Road Master Plan 2009, Roads and Highway Department

Fig. 3: Comparison of Bangladesh Forecast on GDP with other Asian Countries

5Dhaka data is not available, however, GDP is \ current Dhaka GDP which is PPP$ 2100
6 In Road Master plan of RHD considered 4.5%, 5.5% and 6.5% as low, medium and high growth
rate.
48 Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Vol. 3, December 2010

Most important thing is that Halcrow (2000) noted that Calcutta results must cast doubt
on the prospects of any metros in the Indian subcontinent until income levels are
considerably higher. In the present context, it should also be noted with extreme care that
the low value of time which contributes negatively to practical economic viability of
metro project.

Interpretation of Results
According to Thomson et al. (1990), all alternative solutions for the prevailing traffic
problem in the developing cities must be studied before metro investment. The existing
worse traffic scenario e.g. higher extra time for congestion shows that transport users,
those occupy the roads frequently and for longer time have great exception from metro.
In general, all the users are very biased in favor of metro, which may not work in
practice. Because, rickshaw and car users are found captive in nature so they may have
less possibility to use metro. Besides, users in general, have less concern for value of time,
thus a good share of people may remain in the existing mode, rather than using metro for
higher fare in trade of time saving.
Thus, a simple issue that is lack of passengers will make metro unsustainable anywhere.
But if government decided to go for it, several things have to be clear to promote metro
in a sustainable way. To get the advantage of large population, related contextual factors
must be examined properly; particularly those may affect the public transport system.
Right condition is directly related to financial return, as because it considers incorporated
facilities and all necessary infrastructures like pedestrian environment including road
crossing facilities, transfer of mode facilities etc. These are crucial to attract people to the
station but Dhaka has substandard supply of these facilities. If ridership is low here by
any chance (if less people arrives to station), the low the economic return will be when
the fare remain constant and there may incur huge loss. However, if the fare rises to
offset the loss, the impact will be as usual - the loss of ridership and thus low economic
return. Thus, ensuring right condition is very much crucial for sustainability of the
Dhaka metro project. At the same time, it is cost intensive on the top of particular metro
building capital cost.

Conclusion
Long term planning goal, integration of policies and emphasis of spatial planning should
be taken into consideration to save the city, rather than going only for such supply driven
approach. The decision that is arguable at the moment might be a total in vain, as there is
no effective planning control over the population, emerging centers, land use, city size
etc. Thus, with over or less population and new emerging centers, the metro project may
face unavoidable loss. Heavy investment on metro for increasing accessibility and
efficient movement of people seems to have a great chance of backfire hitting the whole
economy. Thus, the scopes for potential alternatives need to be evaluated, such as
different demand management measures and simple solutions, which are not cost
intensive.
Factors in deciding Metro Rail in Developing Countries: A study on the proposed Metro Rail system 49

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