Strategic Environment Assessment

Annex 7 – Flood, Coastal Erosion Risk and Drainage

Preparation for Modernization of the Management of the
Jatiluhur Irrigation System (PMMJIS)
WISMP2, IBRD Loan : No. 8027-IND
Final
May 2017

Sinotech Engineering Consultants, Ltd.

In Joint Venture With:
PT. Kwarsa Hexagon Egis EAU PT. Caturbina Guna Persada
PT. Tata Guna Patria PT. Indah Karya (Persero)
Contents
S Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 1
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 2
1.1 Annexes to the Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA) ..................................................... 2
1.2 This Report ............................................................................................................................ 2
1.3 Objectives ............................................................................................................................. 3
1.4 Layout of the Annex .............................................................................................................. 3
2 Causes of Flooding ........................................................................................................................ 4
2.1 General.................................................................................................................................. 4
2.2 Hydrology .............................................................................................................................. 4
2.2.1 Rainfall and Runoff ........................................................................................................ 4
2.3 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................... 5
2.3.1 Field visits to PJTII Seksi Offices ..................................................................................... 5
2.3.2 Field Visits ..................................................................................................................... 5
2.3.3 Map from PJTII Main Office ........................................................................................... 6
2.3.4 BBWS Citarum ............................................................................................................... 6
2.3.5 Review of Google Satellite Imagery ............................................................................... 7
2.3.6 Map produced by Bekasi and Karawang Governments ................................................. 8
2.3.7 Maps Produced by DAMBRAKE analysis ........................................................................ 9
3 Flooding Impacts on Irrigation Infrastructure ............................................................................. 10
3.1 Headworks Flood Capacities ............................................................................................... 10
3.1.1 Barugbug Barrage ........................................................................................................ 10
3.1.2 Flood Assessment .............................................................................................................. 11
3.2 Flooding Issues on Main Canals........................................................................................... 12
3.3 Flooding Issues on Secondary and Tertiary Systems ........................................................... 13
3.4 Drainage Infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 14
3.5 Reuse of Drain Water Structures Constraints ..................................................................... 14
3.5.1 Proposed Surveys in the Proposed Pilot Area Low Lying Areas ................................... 15
4 Coastal Erosion ........................................................................................................................... 16
4.1 Coastal Protection ............................................................................................................... 16
4.1.1 Coastal Erosion Risk and Sea Level Rise....................................................................... 16
4.1.2 Coastal Erosion near Pamanukan ................................................................................ 16
4.1.3 Coastal Erosion near Citarum Estuary ......................................................................... 18
5 Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Threats.............................................................................. 20
5.1 Catchment Degradation ...................................................................................................... 20

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 5.2 Urban and Industrial Development ..................................................................................... 20
5.3 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise ..................................................................................... 21
5.3.1 Global Issues ............................................................................................................... 21
5.3.2 Local Climate Change Impacts ..................................................................................... 22
6 Drainage and Coastal Protection Master Plan ............................................................................ 24
6.1 Overall Plan ......................................................................................................................... 24
6.2 Priority Selection ................................................................................................................. 24
6.3 Headworks Protection......................................................................................................... 25
6.3.1 Requirements for Detailed Design .............................................................................. 26
6.4 Irrigation System Measures ................................................................................................ 26
6.5 Drainage System Intensification .......................................................................................... 26
6.5.1 Upgrading Costs of Drain Reuse Structures ................................................................. 27
6.6 Coastal Protection Measures .............................................................................................. 27
6.6.1 Protection of the Coast near Pamanukan ................................................................... 27
6.6.2 Remedial Measures near Citarum Estuary .................................................................. 28
Most northerly areas of the command of the North Tarum canal are at increasing risk of coastal
flooding and erosion as documented in the Sediment Environmental Assessment. What is
required to protect the rice lands are: ........................................................................................ 28
6.7 Flood and Coastal Modelling ............................................................................................... 29
6.8 Flood Warning and Monitoring System............................................................................... 30
6.9 Implementation Schedule ................................................................................................... 30

List of Appendices
Appendix 7.A – Reported Areas of Flooding from PJTII Seksi Offices

Appendix 7.B – Jatiluhur Irrigation Flood Map

Appendix 7.C – Report from Arctic News on Sea Level Rise

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List of Figures

Figure 2-1 Composite map of Areas of Inundation ............................................................................... 6

Figure 2-2 Flood Map in Citarum River Basin from BBWS Citarum ....................................................... 7
Figure 2-3 Area East of Ciseum Subject to annual Inundation .............................................................. 8
Figure 2-4 Flood Map of 20 March 2010 ............................................................................................... 8
Figure 2-5 Flood Extent resulting from DAMBREAK Analysis of Jatiluhur/Juanda Reservoir ................. 9

Figure 3-1 Barugbug Weir: a. During high Flows, b. Ciherang Weir limited Width.............................. 11
Figure 3-2 Craeger Curves Showing Weir Design Floods in Typical Weirs in Indonesia....................... 12
Figure 3-3 Lack of Main Drainage at rice field – Tambak Area Boundary. .......................................... 14
Figure 3-4 a, Dysfunctional Drain Re-se Structure, b, Upstream Bridge Stoplogged Causing Flooding15

Figure 4-1 Area North of Cipunegara River where Coastal Erosion has Occurred............................... 17
Figure 4-2 Erosion and deposition along the ETC Shoreline................................................................ 17
Figure 4-3 Low Lying Areas at Risk of coastal Erosion or Saline Inundation within 30 Years .............. 18
Figure 4-4 Satellite Image 2001 with 2014 Shoreline Superimposed Showing Land Lost ................... 19
Figure 4-5 Imagery of Citarum Estuary on 29/06/2015 showing area lost to the sea. ........................ 19

Figure 5-1 Variation of Temperature across the Earth ........................................................................ 21

Figure 5-2 Measured and Predicted Ice Melt in the Arctic.................................................................. 22
Figure 5-3 Tambak and Rice Land at Risk from Coastal Erosion and Saline Inundation by 2045 ......... 23

Figure 6-1 Possible Layout of Emergency Spillways for Barugbug Headworks.................................... 25

Figure 6-2 Long Section for Ciherang Cascade Spillway for Costing Purposes .................................... 26
Figure 6-3 Protection of Rice Land near Cipunegara Estuary .............................................................. 28
Figure 6-4 Coastal Erosion Management Interventions near Citarum Estuary Area ........................... 29

List of Tables

Table 3-1 Estimated Design Floods for JIS Cross Weirs ....................................................................... 10

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List of Acronyms

ADB Asian Development Bank

APBN Anggaran Pendapatan Belanja Negara (National Annual Budget)

BBWS Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai (River Basin Management Unit)

BMKG National Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency

DGWR Directorate General of Water Resources

DMI WS Domestic, Municipal and Industrial Water Supply

DTM Digital Terrain Model

ETC East Tarum Canal

EFW JCP National Flood Warning Joint Cooperation Program (EFW JCP)

FDMEWS Flood and Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System

FSWL Full Supply Water Level

FWUA Federation of Water Level Associations (also GP3A = Gabungan P3A)

GoI Government of Indonesia

ICWRMIP Integrated Citarum Water Resources Management Improvement Program

JIS Jatiluhur Irrigation System

LIDAR Light Detection And Ranging

masl metres above sea level

NTC North Tarum Canal

PJT II Perum Jasa Tirta 2 (Water Resources State Enterprise II)

PMMJIS Preparation for Modernization of the Management of the Jatiluhur Irrigation System
SMP Sediment Management Plan

SOP Standard Operating Produce

SUDs Sustainable Urban Drainage

ToR Terms of Reference

WIS National Water Information System under BMKG

WTC West Tarum Canal

WUA Water User Association

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S Summary
The Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA) should be seen as the baseline from which to commence
the planning for Preparation of the Management Modernisation of the Jatiluhur Irrigation Project. The
SEA forms a Decision Support System containing an assessment of the existing situation on the scheme
as well as an assessment of development trends that will affect and guide future planning.

Whilst the ToR quite rightly focuses on the JJS, irrigated areas for the study and the existing situation
and practices and ongoing trends, there are outside impacts that cannot be ignored. Consequently,
this first draft of Annex 7 emphasizes the need to raise awareness of the importance of drainage
provision and flood and coastal protection within the programmes of rehabilitation and modernization
of the Jatiluhur system. These impacts are anticipated to become exacerbated by global warming with
the following impacts on JIS:

 Anticipated high intensity rainfall combined with degredation of the catchment areas is
expected to increase storm runoff and the generation of increasing volumes of sediment
that will clog structures and canals and cause flooding in Project areas.
 Floods from the sub-catchments will put some of the diversion weirs and flood protection
embankments at risk of collapse and result in flooding.
 Garbage disposed into streams and canals which, along with floating weeds and dead timber,
clog culverts and irrigation structures risking overtopping and failure.
 Inundation of some 20,000 ha of low lying areas near the coast routinely floods, but some
62,000 ha within 2.5m of mean sea level is likely to be threatened by a combination of sea
level rise, increased incoming drainage flows, storm surge and land settlement.
 Coastal erosion that in two areas has advanced some 4km partly owing to mangrove
destruction and likely to rapidly increase due to expected sea level rise.
 Social changes brought about by urban and industrial development that reduces and isolated
rice areas, increases flooding and affects labour trends away from farming.

In accordance with the environmental impact of the above, further study has been added to the
PMMJIS study framework with an additional chapter added to the Strategic Environmental
Assessment (SEA) and the generation of this support annex.

1
1 Introduction
1.1 Annexes to the Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA)

This document forms Annex 7 of the Strategic Environment Assessment which provides the baseline
for Preparing the Management Modernisation of the Jatiluhur Irrigation system (JIS). The annexes are:

Annex 1: Land Resources and Geo Spatial

Annex 2: Water Availability
Annex 3: Operations and Irrigation Infrastructure
Annex 4: Sediment and Floating Debris Constraints
Annex 5: Institutions and Human Resources
Annex 6: MIS and Computer Modelling,
Annex 7: Flood, Coastal Erosion Risk and Drainage

Annex 8: Agro Socio Economic

1.2 This Report

This Annex is a working document which will be added to during the inputs of the PPMJIS team. This
first draft emphasizes the need to raise awareness of the importance of drainage provision and flood
protection within the programmes of rehabilitation and modernization of the Jatiluhur system.
Flooding is mainly caused by high intensity rainfall during the wet season when the catchment area is
already saturated. There are a complex of additional factors that exacerbate flooding ranging from
blocked and inadequate culverts, sediment filled canals and drains, insufficient drainage provisions,
high water table, urban and industrial developments reducing flood storage and increasing flood
depth and miss-operation of Juanda Reservoir. Whilst these factors cause substantial present flooding
concerns, it is future impacts of climate change and urban and industrialization that pose great risks
to the future size of the Jatiluhur Irrigation System (JIS).

To ascertain the risks to the JIS the PMMJIS team has carried out reconnaissance field surveys and
rapid assessments, consulted the PJTII main, divisional and section offices to obtain information. This
has enabled a flood map to be drafted showing reported areas of flooding that has been augmented
by recently prepared flood maps prepared by PJTII and for BBWS. Other flood maps in connection with
maloperation of Juanda Reservoir and effects of a potential dam break, as simulated by a DAMBREK
program, are also presented. To this have been added desk studies of current and historic Google
imagery that also shows substantial areas of flooding. The team has also included areas of coastal
erosion where the sea has penetrated up to 4 km inland to destroy tambak and rice land and now
threatens substantial areas of low lying rice land.

The opening of the Jakarta -Cikampek toll road has caused the rapid industrialization of the areas to
the north and south of the WTC that partly appears unplanned and uncontrolled. To the south of the
Jatiluhur canals it increases runoff and pollution during storms whilst to the south it leaves areas of
irrigation fragmented, isolated from the drainage system and increases risks of flooding. The
developers start by importing soil to raise levels above adjacent rice land and village areas that reduces
flood storage and increasing levels above those tolerable for a rice crop or people. In addition
groundwater over abstraction is causing ground levels to settle and thereby exacerbating flooding.

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Maps of the Bekasi, Cikarang and Cikampek areas shows many areas of flooding caused by the
combination of these effects with poor drainage.

By far the greatest future threat to the scheme will be caused by global warming affecting climate
change. Wet season intense storms are predicted to increase in intensity by up to 20%. In terms of
erosion this will generate a far higher production of transported materials that will clog rivers, canals
and structures. Of particular concern is sea level rise. Artic scientists are pointing to far higher
increases in temperatures in these regions, ice sheet loss and methane and carbon dioxide release
than predicted. Such temperature rises may occur a lot earlier than first thought causing greater ice
ment and hence more rapidly rising sea levels. A 3⁰C rise in temperature in the past has resulted
eventually in a 50m sea level rise. To ascertain the impact of resultant sea level rises on the JIS it is
necessary to have a LIDAR generated 1m interval contour map of the scheme. The precautionary
principle should motivate planners to consider both short term protection of the JIS that should
include reversing erosion effects in current areas of erosion and a longer term strategy of protecting
the whole JIS coastline and assisting farmers to adapt to it.

The first part of the report is an assessment of the existing situation and impact of possible future
trends that will form part of the Environmental Assessment. The second part of this Annex will
examine flood and coastal ‘No Regret Measures’ that should be implemented under the Action Plan.

1.3 Objectives
The objectives of this document are to:

a. Bring attention to drainage and flooding aspects on the JIS that have been understated in the
ToR for modernisation.
b. Highlight locations on the JIS at risk of flood damage and coastal erosion before it occurs and
incurs unacceptable repair and annual maintenance costs.
c. Conceive scenarios of future risks, and of the threat of increased flooding, sedimentation and
sea level rise due to climate change.
d. Propose concept designs and a preliminary cost estimate of physical solutions

Overall these measures should ensure the smooth functioning of the system, hence ease of
management and prevention of subsequent emergency measures and expense in preparation for
system modernisation.

1.4 Layout of the Annex

The layout of the discussion note follows the following format:

Chapter 1 provides an introduction and justification for highlighting flood and coastal erosion issues
on JIS.
Chapter 2 describes the causes of flooding in general terms on the JIS.
Chapter 3 describes data collection and the formulation of a flood event map.
Chapter 4 describes coastal erosion and how it is becoming a threat to rice land.
Chapter 5 describes future scenarios of urban and industrial expansion and risk of climate change
Chapter 6 includes the outline of a drainage, coastal protection and flood control master plan will be
completed during the sustainable management planning stage of the PMMJIS study.

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2 Causes of Flooding
2.1 General

The most obvious cause of flooding is high intensity rainfall that falls either directly on the area of
flooding or inundates an area from runoff from the upslope catchment. Such flooding is usually
exacerbated by a variety of factors:

a. Clogging of drains by sediment, thick vegetation, both water weed and dryland vegetation,
and garbage.
b. Clogging of structures such as siphons by the same materials.
c. Over-spilling of river banks which, in low areas, have water levels raised by high tides.
d. Undersized culverts and bridges where roads and canals cross drainlines.
e. Dysfunctional structures in drainlines such as water reuse structures with gates jammed partly
open.
f. Infilling of land for housing or industry causing surrounding rice land to flood much deeper.
g. Buildings encroaching into stream cross sections causing pinch points.
h. Lack of maintenance provisions for routinely removing clogging materials.

Problems caused by sediments are described in detail in the SEA Annex 4 Sediment and Floating Debris
Constraints on Jatiluhur Irrigation System.

Remedial measures to deal with these problems are presented in Chapter 8 which will be completed
following discussions with key stakeholders on drainage issues and problems. This is expected to
include structural and non-structural measures such as adapting to the floods and preparing flood
management institutions.

2.2 Hydrology

Overall aspects of hydrology are discussed in Chapter 2 of the Strategic Environmental Assessment
whilst details are given in Annex 2 Hydrology. The annex shows the network of rainfall, river flow and
climate stations located across the JIS area and upstream catchments. The various organisations that
collect data are described and their instruments listed. The hydrology annexe also provides estimates
of water availability and flood magnitudes at the various diversion weirs.

2.2.1 Rainfall and Runoff

The annual mean rainfall map (see Figure 4.5 in main Environmental Assessment Report) shows the
variation in rainfall across the JIS and the catchment areas. What is most striking is the variation of
rainfall from lowland to highland and from north to south. Rainfall over much of the JIS is below 1500
mm whilst in the highest catchment areas it is in excess of 4,000 mm. In addition, annual plots of
monthly rainfall and river flow show that over 70% occurs between the five months of November to
March. Most intense rainfall occurs as tropical thunderstorms of high intensity of less than 2 hours
duration, although some cyclonic storms of longer duration occur and cause the most extreme runoff
in larger rivers. Higher intensity events are predicted to occur with global warming as warmer sea and
air temperatures increase water vapour convection.

Higher intensity storms will increase the capacity for erosion and sediment transport by exponential
factors causing greater sediment problems at intakes and along canals. Such runoff will also increase

4
the risk of overtopping embankments and damage to dams, diversion weirs and canals. With this in
mind the recent dam safety study at Juanda Dam has proposed improved spillway measures by
providing two radial gates at the emergency spillway walls rather than destroying two of the four
closure walls. The risk to other headworks is discussed in section 4.1.

2.3 Data Collection

The JIS covers an extensive area of some 224,000 ha1 much of which is low lying and subject to
flooding. Unfortunately systematic records of flood events and inundated areas is not routinely
prepared. However, various organisations including the PJTII Seksi office, the PJTII main office, BBWS
Citarum and local governments keep records of areas that regularly flood and of locations where
drainage provisions are insufficient to prevent flooding. These areas have been combined into a flood
event map that indicates where flooding is likely to occur. Areas of flooding and coastal erosion that
can be seen on Google satellite imagery have also been added to the map.

2.3.1 Field visits to PJTII Seksi Offices

During May 2016 staff from the PMMJIS team made reconnaissance visits to the field and discussed
flooding issues with PJTII Seksi technical staff. Details were provided by all of the PJTII Seksi Offices2
as presented in Appendix A with areal Extent provided on Figure 3.1 and in Appendix A at A3 size as
Figure A1. The reports in tabular form in Appendix A gave details as to whether these were annual
events, the duration of the flooding and the areal extent.

2.3.2 Field Visits

Reconnaissance visits were made to the lower areas of the ETC proposed as a pilot area for water
management modernization where the following was noted:

a. The area visited in April shown on the irrigation layout map as supplied by BKl7 was
augmented by two drain reuse structures as described in section 4.6. The rice fields looked
healthy but the team was informed that in this area due to risk of inundation farmers planted
two rice crops in February and June and kept fields fallow from November to the end of
January. This planting did not follow the published golongon schedule.
b. The area some 9km north of Pamanukan where coastal erosion has penetrated 4.5 km
through some 150 ha of tambak areas and some 400 ha of rice land and now threatens a
further 6,000 ha of low lying rice fields (see section 5.1.2).
c. Along the boundary between the tambaks zone and the rice land between the Cipunegara
and Ciseum rivers where farmers report annual flooding but where a major interceptor drain
poorly functions.

1
GIS analysis has calculated a net area of some 216,000 ha whilst PJTII gives a total irrigable area of 224,737 ha.
As the GIS does not include canals and drains the larger figure has been adopted and represents about 4%.
2
In the west this included the offices of Bekasi, Tarum, Rengasdengklok, Karawang Lemahabang

5
2.3.3 Map from PJTII Main Office

PJTII Head Office have produced an overall flood map for the Citarum Basin that does not appear to
coincide entirely with the Seksi Office reported flood areas. Flood areas from Seksi offices, BBWS and
PJTII sources have been combined on Figure 3.1 and Figure A1.

Note: Larger version presented in Appendix A

Figure 2-1 Composite map of Areas of Inundation

2.3.4 BBWS Citarum

BBWS Citarum have produced a flood map of the Citarum River Basin that has also been superimposed
on the JIS flood map shown as Figure 3.1 (dated April 2016) and Appendix B. il 2016.

6
Figure 2-2 Flood Map in Citarum River Basin from BBWS Citarum

The map shows a substantial area of flooding on the west bank of the Citarum from near the
confluence with the Cibeet to the coast. This flooded area is believed to result from miss-operation of
the Juanda/Jatiluhur dam when reservoir levels were kept high to maximize hydropower generation
during a particularly wet period when water was released in large quantities. The fact that the flooded
area is shown entirely on the west side of the river suggests there were bank failures on that side. See
also Section 3.3.7.

2.3.5 Review of Google Satellite Imagery

A review of Google satellite imagery history showed areas of inundation and in particular with imagery
taken on 4 March 2014 when a large area between Ciasem and Pamanukan bounded by the tambaks
area to the north was inundated as shown on Figure 3.3.

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Figure 2-3 Area East of Ciseum Subject to annual Inundation

Areas identified from the Google Earth historical mapping have also been inserted onto Figure 3.1
(and Figure A1).

2.3.6 Map produced by Bekasi and Karawang Governments

A map has been produced by the joint Bekasi and

Karawang governments that shows a large swathe of
land either side of the Citarum River inundated on 20
March 2010. This is consistent with an excessive
release at Juanda Reservoir and may be over-
exaggerated for a damages claim. Some of the
extensive flooding on the west side of the Citarum has
been confirmed by the BBWS mapping but not that on
the east bank. Extensive flooding was reported in the
national press with people evacuated from their
homes. Kompass reported:
‘The number of evacuees due to the flood in Karawang
Regency approximately reaches 32,119 people/8.358
families, which cover 7 sub-districts; West Karawang, East
Karawang, East Telukjambe, West Telukjambe, Ciampel,
Batujaya, and Pakisjaya sub-districts’.
This extensive flooding has not been included on the
composite flood map shown on Figure 3.1 as this
event is assumed to be a unique incident that
triggered a review and change to operating
procedures to prevent it re-occurring.

Figure 2-4 Flood Map of 20 March 2010

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2.3.7 Maps Produced by DAMBRAKE analysis

A map produced as part of a DAMBRAKE computer analysis of the three Citarum cascade reservoirs is
shown on Figure 3.5 covering the major part of the Jatiluhur scheme. The map was produced as part
of the Dams Safety Project3 funded by the World Bank. Another set of maps were produced during
the CIWRMP 6Ci’s project that showed development of the wall of water spreading out over the JIS
after various intervals of time.

Figure 2-5 Flood Extent resulting from DAMBREAK Analysis of Jatiluhur/Juanda Reservoir

3
Special Study on Jatiluhur Dam Safety Improvement and Rehabilitation, The Dam Operational Improvement
and Safety Project (DOISP), IBRD Loan No. 7669-ID

9
3 Flooding Impacts on Irrigation Infrastructure
3.1 Headworks Flood Capacities

The design discharges for weirs of streams that contribute to JIS flows are shown below. The Irrigation
Standards stipulates that a 1:100 year discharge is the usual design criteria unless there is a risk to
habitation from fast flowing water in which case it should be raised to 1:1,000 year return period. A
structure over 15m in height is regarded as a large dam and should be designed for a larger design
flood such as 1:1,000 year or a PMF if considerable habitation is at risk. Design floods for weirs are
shown in Table 4.1 and should generally be to 100 years return period with 1m freeboard.

Table 3-1 Estimated Design Floods for JIS Cross Weirs

Note: Flows determined using Walahar rainfall station daily data from 1979 to 2008 with a HEC HMS catchment
model.

A preliminary check on the capacities of the cross river weirs is shown above and highlights the need
to provide additional capacity at Cibeet, Barugbug and Salamdarma weirs even after allowing for zero
freeboard and the scour gates contributing to the passing the design flood. Further details of the
Barugbug spillway is given below as this has the highest priority for an emergency spillway. Details of
extending the capacity of the three weirs is presented in Section 8.3.

3.1.1 Barugbug Barrage

The Ciherang and Cilamaya catchments are combined at the Barugbug barrage to supply the Barugbug
irrigation system that can augment the ETC in the wet season and be augmented by the ETC in the dry
season. The combined catchment area is 406 km2 and carries a substantial sediment load during the
wet season. Substantial areas of the catchment are moderately susceptible to erosion whilst hot spots
delivering substantial sediments are shown at the top of upland areas. Catchment remedial measures
are described in the Sediment Management Report which will form an annex to the Management
Plan.

10
Field staff have reported that the weir embankments have been overtopped twice during recent
floods. The weir during flood relies on the operators raising two counterbalanced radial gates 14m
wide, one releasing floods into the Ciherang River downstream and the other into the Cilamaya
downstream channel as shown on Figure 4.1. The right and left canals are also shown. The frame
above the weir is for stoplogs.

Figure 3-1 Barugbug Weir: a. During high Flows, b. Ciherang Weir limited Width
The flood gates are a risk if a flood occurs unnoticed in the middle of the night and are not raised. A
serious overtopping of the banks could cause severe erosion and damage to the weir. Additional
spillway capacity is urgently needed.

3.1.2 Flood Assessment

Referencing the catchment area to the Craeger curves for floods in Indonesia suggests the weir should
have been designed for a flood of over 1000 m3/s with the 25% Craeger curve, see Figure 4.1. Most
weirs in Indonesia have been designed between the 15% and 30% envelopes although one
recommended flood design method, Der Weduan, gives results closer to the 50% Craeger curve.
Predictions of increased runoff due to global warming is about 20% over a planning horizon of 30
years. The design flood at Barugbug should be upgraded to at least 1200 m3/s and consistent with the
30% Craeger curve. With a freeboard of 1m at the headworks structure the current flood capacity of
the weir is about 244 m3/s with the gates fully open. Without the 1m freeboard the capacity is 432
m3/s. The earthfill abutments may be lower than the concrete structure top level. Using HEC HMS
rainfall Runoff method the 1:100 year discharge is 1172 m3/s and should be adopted for detailed
design and additional flood capacity of at least 740 m3/s is required. During detailed design the design
flood should be further studied as a preliminary to spillway design.

11
Figure 3-2 Craeger Curves Showing Weir Design Floods in Typical Weirs in Indonesia

Increasing the design flood at Salamdarma weir would be more complex as:

a. There are considerable works either side of the weir that make installing an emergency
spillway difficult;
b. The flood is likely to spill out of bank upstream onto the flood plain causing a flood routing
effect at the weir;
c. The flood discharge over the weir at such large flows is likely to drown out the weir, and
d. There are proposals to build two dams upstream that will modify the incoming hydrograph
depending on the dam SOPs and the spillway hydraulics especially if the spillway crest has
operational gates that could be maloperated.

It is suggested that a more detailed flood study is carried out at the weir that should include a HECRAS
transient flow flood model.

The design flow at Cibeet should also be studied with the possibility of constructing an emergency
spillway at the weir’s left hand abutment.

3.2 Flooding Issues on Main Canals

Flood issues on the main canals are due to the following problems:

a. Garbage blocking of culvert BTT11a causing flooding upstream into habitation as discussed in
greater detail in the Environmental Assessment of Sediment and Floating Debris constraints
and in the No Regret Measures Report. The culvert is at risk of piping failure that is likely to
causing the downstream embankment to settle below the full supply water level (FSWL)

12
 resulting in an embankment breach and widespread flooding of rice land to the north. To date
no further culverts exhibiting this problem have been seen.
b. Clogging of siphon entrees with floating debris as occurs at the Cigadung Siphon inlet.
Overtopping of banks is also reported at the siphon near BPik5. Details of a proposal to divert
floating debris to the sides of the canal for collection in debris pockets is provided in the
Sediment and Floating Debris Management Plan. Siphons on secondary canals are also
reported with this clogging problem.
c. The ETC has connections with secondary canals coming from upslope areas such as Barugbug
and Macan where canal/drains and the main canals have gated connections. The ETC is used
to absorb excess flows from these canals during periods of heavy rainfall when they have high
turbidity. There should be upslope interceptor drains at these locations to take excess flows
to the main drainlines.
d. Overtopping of canal banks especially in reaches without spillweirs and where sediment
deposition is high such as in the Bugis and Cibeet system.
e. Excess and increasing runoff from industrial and urban areas draining into canals. Several high
sediment laden streams can be seen flowing into the WTC, despite recent lining of upslope
drains, and the ETC.

3.3 Flooding Issues on Secondary and Tertiary Systems

Flooding from secondary canals in sloping areas is less of a problem as sediments are more easily
transported in the steeper downslope canals. Where the canals are on shallow gradients such as in
the Bugis system there are problems with secondary canals silting and siphons clogging at the
entrances with floating debris and within the barrel due to accumulated sediments. Consequently
water passes over the banks and floods adjacent fields. At the end of secondary canals they pass into
low lying areas where shallow gradients will deposit sediments that have to be annually removed.
Such canals are generally quite small and can be annually desilted by maintenance agreements with
the relevant FWUA/GP3A.

The current upstream management system means that during heavy rain canal gates are often closed
either overloading downstream canals or turning excess irrigation water into drainlines at a time when
they need capacity to discharge the local rainfall. Excess flow then overtops the banks to inundate the
rice fields.

Tertiary level canals are often used for both water supply and the removal of drainwater at different
periods of the crop cycle. However, this can lead to problems where some farmers, with the more
traditional long stalk varieties in downstream areas are still wanting to supply, whilst upstream
farmers with ripening HYVs want to drain down.

Farmers usually clear out the tertiary level system and cut vegetation in and around the canals before
each planting. Excess clay and silt is dispersed over their fields. It should be noted that rice plants can
survive a certain level of inundation for a certain length of time but this depends on the rice variety in
terms of stalk height and also the stalk maturation growth. It is noted on the project that varieties in
areas of frequent inundation that the more traditional high stalk varieties are used.

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3.4 Drainage Infrastructure

Drainage canals are usually treated as the poor relation of irrigation canals, yet are essential for water
level control in the rice fields and equally contribute to high yields. In most areas there is a shortage
of drain canals as few farmers want to give up their land to also benefit others. In sloping areas the
main streams are well incised and most areas are able to readily drain. Often small canals tend to
supply some parts of their reaches and drain other parts.
In flat areas widespread flooding can occur due to inadequate or poorly managed drain systems.
Within the flat parts of the proposed pilot areas the main drains have often been closed down with
small structures to supply one area which causes flooding in another. A main cross drain, shown in
orange on Figure 4.3, appears to be dysfunctional at the rice field-tambak boundary. Structures with
flap gates are fully or partially blocked and not effective in discharging flows into the Ciasem and
Cipunegara rivers which could drain widespread areas at low tide. Here there tends to be a much
higher concentration of drains that become supply and drains to downstream brackish water tambaks.

Figure 3-3 Lack of Main Drainage at rice field – Tambak Area Boundary.

3.5 Reuse of Drain Water Structures Constraints

In many of the low lying areas additional structures have been built in the drains to raise water levels
to feed additional supplies back into canals. This is a symptom of bottlenecks and poor flow
distribution during the dry season despite the fact there is sufficient water stored in the Citarum
reservoirs and released. Examples of this are shown on Figure 6.1a where a major gated structure has
been designed to let floods through in the wet season and raise flows up to canal levels in the dry
season. The steel gates have rusted in just 10 years and the inadequately designed spindles have bent.
The structure can neither open gates to pass wet season floods or retain water in the dry season to
feed into the irrigation system. It appears that the main structure was piled but the masonry wing
walls and access steps were not causing them to fail due to differential settlement.

14
.

Figure 3-4 a, Dysfunctional Drain Re-se Structure, b, Upstream Bridge Stoplogged Causing Flooding

To compensate for the dysfunctional structure in Photo 6.1a, the upstream bridge has been provided
with stoplogs beneath that are not removed prior to storms causing upstream flooding of rice land
and habitation. The upstream community also make the situation worse by discarding garbage into
the drain that clogs up the bridge making stoplog removal difficult. It appears that the main structure
was built by the District PSDA and the bridge stoplogs by the local community.

The above description is for the problem at one drainline that requires solving by either upgrading the
damaged structure or proving the area can be provided over a three year period by just the irrigation
system once the ETC bottlenecks have been resolved. The drain reuse structures can then be removed
once the WUAs are convinced the irrigation system will bring in reliable flows. Visits to the project and
examination of Google satellite imagery indicate that this is not just an isolated case but many reuse
of drain structures exist in different stages of usefulness throughout the JIS.

3.5.1 Proposed Surveys in the Proposed Pilot Area Low Lying Areas

It is not proposed under the no regret measures to identify all such drain reuse structures within the
whole of JIS. It is recommended to carry out a survey in the proposed pilot area between the Ciasem
and Cipunegara rivers. It is noted that drainage issues between tambak and rice farmers are complex
and the boundary between the two and in the past has gradually moving northwards as tambaks fill
with sediment and are converted into rice fields. Coastal erosion studies show that over the last
twenty years this coastal process has reversed as tidal levels increase. There may be a reversal of the
process with rice farmers converting sawah back into tambaks. Tambak farmers have to balance
inflows of fresh and saline water at different times of their crop cycle whilst rice farmers want to avoid
admitting saline water. Consequently upgrading structures and rehabilitating drains requires a social
participation component to the proposed surveys to ensure the proposed works will benefit both sets
of farmers and improve drainage and sanitary conditions for communities.

Based on the cost of upgrading the first of the above structures and removing the stoplogs of the
second the ‘No Regret Measures’ estimates a budget for upgrading 6 such structures as well as
excavating a 15 km drain and improving the poorly functioning drain outlet structure into the Ciasem
River. The costing will also include for investigative topographic and geotechnical surveys and detailed
design.

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4 Coastal Erosion

4.1 Coastal Protection

4.1.1 Coastal Erosion Risk and Sea Level Rise

There are many factors that affect the morphology of the coastline that can be summarised by:

a. The normal climatic effects of Java being located close to the equator and subject to the
annual movement cycle of the inter-tropical zone of convergence, bringing changes in rainfall,
wind patterns and currents.

b. The effect of the circulation of the moon around the earth and the effect on tides, and the
erosive effect of spring and highest astronomic tides in particular.

c. The dominance of the N E Monsoon winds generating storm waves and storm surges, resulting
in a permanent westerly longshore movement of sediment along the north Java coastline.
Extreme event storm surge levels will be higher than highest astronomic tide levels and when
combined with extreme event waves will cause coastal erosion and flooding.

c. The concentrations of sediments in the rivers, the alignments and migration of the rivers
across their floodplains and how their sediment load reacts with the longshore drift currents.

d. Remnants of the mangrove belt, that formally gave protection to the coastline.

e. More recently concern over the effect of global warming on sea level rise, which has been
between 0.3 to 0.4 m over the last century but predicted to increase to over 1m by 2100.

f. The effect of dams on reducing the volumes of sediments reaching the coastline.

In assessing the physical environment of the Citarum river basin and other catchments that cross the
Tarum canals the situation with coastal morphology changes has to be taken into consideration. A
review of Google satellite imagery from year 2002 until the present day reveals some severe changes
that are having a dramatic effect on the band of brackish water aquaculture tambak and rice land
along the coast. In several places the advance of the sea into the land is so severe that it is now
threatening a substantial area of low lying rice land. In particular near the Citarum and Cipunegara
estuaries.

4.1.2 Coastal Erosion near Pamanukan

Figure 5.1 shows satellite images from 28/06/2006 and 10/5/2015 of the coastal outline close to the
Cipunegara outlet estuary. The shoreline from the 2015 imagery superimposed over the 2006 imagery
shows the advances the sea has eroded both tambak and rice and is advancing on longer established
rice land that appears light brown in the image. The photograph also shows that traditional tambaks
and rice fields have been replaced by more commercial prawn tambaks with pinshears and more
substantial erosion protection using bamboo lattices. Some 6,000 ha of rice land below elevation 2.5
masl is now at risk between the Cipunegara and the Ciasam. A site visit in March 2016 confirmed the

16
further advancement of the sea and the frequent inundation of low lying rice land mainly from the
river. Topographic maps maps indicate that over a longer time period some 62,000 ha below 2.5 masl
may be at risk.

There would appear to be several reasons why this has happened. In fact all listed may have
contributed to this situation:

a. Removal of mangroves by the tambak farmers.

b. Realignment of the main Cipunegara channel to the east starving this area of coastline of
sediments
d. Rising sea levels due to global warming.
e. Compression of the soils leading to settlement and believed to be 1.12 mm /year.
Clearly a substantial area of low lying rice land is at severe risk of becoming permanent sea. A
suggested approach to protecting and rehabilitating this area is made in the Sediment Management
Plan.

Figure 4-1 Area North of Cipunegara River where Coastal Erosion has Occurred

Whilst the above example demonstrates the most aggressive coastal erosion, most of the remainder
of the coastline is also starting to show vulnerability to coastal inundation of tambak and rice fields
where they extend along the coastline.

Another reach of coastline experiencing erosion

is along the Patrol area shore where the sea has
advanced some 800m in ten years removing
mainly rice land as shown on Figure 5.2. Most of
the accretion has occurred at the Cipunegara
sea outlet. It is noted that the location of the
Patimban Port is along this strip of coastline.

Figure 4-2 Erosion and deposition along the ETC Shoreline

It is noted that interventions within the foreshore such as jetties and breakwaters are more likely to
exacerbate erosion in adjacent areas.

17
The wind rose on Figure 5.2 shows that the direction of the prevailing wind in onshore and likely to
drive currents in a circulatory motion around the developing coastline causing future erosion made
worse by global warming effects.

Along the whole JIS coastline both the rice and tambaks farmers have removed the coastal mangrove
protection belt and hence their protection from coastal erosion. Without coastal protection,
catchment management or drainline maintenance, sea level rise will cause further extensive erosion
and over the next 30 years could inundate some 13,000ha of Riceland as shown on Figure 5.3.

Figure 4-3 Low Lying Areas at Risk of coastal Erosion or Saline Inundation within 30 Years

4.1.3 Coastal Erosion near Citarum Estuary

Figure 5.4 shows a satellite image from 23/04/2001 and the coastal outline close to the Citarum outlet
with the 29/04/2015 coastline superimposed from the image on Figure 5.5. The shoreline has
advanced some 4km and now threatens some 3,000 ha of low lying rice land to the south that will be
particularly vulnerable. The Citarum River has built up alluvial banks that are higher than surrounding
land and provides a barrier some 4km to the south from the present coast, but further lowland exists
to the east. There are several reasons why this erosion has occurred and that all of these factors have
contributed to this situation:
a. Removal of mangroves by the tambak farmers.
b. Reduction in sediment in Citarum due to the construction of the three Citarum reservoirs.
c. Realignment of the main Citarum channel to the west.
d. Increasing sea levels due to global warming.
e. Compression of the soils leading to settlement.

18
Clearly a substantial area of low lying rice land is at severe risk of becoming permanent sea. A
suggested approach to protecting and rehabilitating this area is made in the Sediment Management
Plan.

Figure 4-4 Satellite Image 2001 with 2014 Shoreline Superimposed Showing Land Lost

Figure 4-5 Imagery of Citarum Estuary on 29/06/2015 showing area lost to the sea.

19
5 Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Threats
5.1 Catchment Degradation

The catchments of the Citarum River and all of the subcatchments of rivers providing water into the
JIS continue to lose forest areas. Their rivers transport increasing sediment despite some forty years
of awareness, formation of catchment management units (balai) under Kehutanan and catchment
management programmes. Consequently the intakes on these rivers that contribute flows into the
WTC and ETC import higher and higher concentrations of sediments that clog canals and drainlines.
Where these rivers approach the coast they become shallow and wide raising water levels that provide
little head loss to effectively drain low lying areas. Sediment analysis on streams entering the WTC
show that most of the transported material are silts that require long sediment basins to provide
substantial settling time. Even then only a proportion of this material will settle out. Some remaining
silts will settle out in long straight sections of canals and drains and slow flowing river channels.

Unfortunately deforestation and improvement of agricultural practices in the catchment areas are not
the responsibility of PJTII or even the BBWS Citarum. They can only provide advice to other ministries
and, in the case of international development loans, promote inter-agency catchment management
projects. Unfortunately the GoI and ADB have scaled down the Integrated Citarum Water Resources
Management Program (ICWRMP) which contained substantial initiatives in catchment management.

There is a water security programme initiated by the President to build more dams and extend the
rice growing area throughout Indonesia. Dams built in the Cipunegara and Cibeet catchments will trap
a large portion of sediments generated in their upstream catchments. These structures may appear
to reduce sediment arriving at the irrigation diversion weirs. In practice the clearer released flows will
cause increased bank and bed erosion and still deliver sediments into the canal intakes and the
downstream river. The dams are at risk of rapidly filling with sediment unless an effective sediment
flushing regime at the start of the wet season can be initiated. A dam and reservoir set within tight
gorges would be easier to flush than a reservoir that opens out into a wide shallow valley.
Consequently a lower version of the Cipunegara dam (as a higher dam would inundate some 10
hamlets) should be favoured above the wider but shorter Sukamandi Dam in terms of sediment
flushing.

5.2 Urban and Industrial Development

The spread of industry and housing into the project area is likely to continue into the future along the
Jakarta – Cikampek corridor that includes the southern strip of the WTC command area. Areas of
anticipated change over two different land use scenarios are discussed in the main SEA document and
in more detail in Annex 1. Providing platforms above flood levels for housing estates and factories will
put rice fields at further risk of deeper inundation as flood storage diminishes. The situation is further
exacerbated by housing, factories and illegal settlements intruding into stream channels and such
developments also removing drainage channels.

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5.3 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
5.3.1 Global Issues

For Indonesians living in a climate where the temperature varies between 23 to 33⁰C it is difficult to
imagine that their future will be impacted by melting ice at the Arctic and Antarctic. The spin of the
earth relative to the sun creates wind and ocean currents that transfer heat from the tropics to
temperate and extreme latitudes. The global climate stability depends on these heat exchange
systems. Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere creates a warming blanket that preserves life on
earth. However the release of excessive CO2 and other gasses, including methane, can overheat and
cause secondary affects that also contribute to melting ice masses. A temperature increase of 1⁰C at
the equator results in a rise of 3⁰C at the North Pole as demonstrated in Figure 6.1.

Figure 5-1 Variation of Temperature across the Earth

21
These secondary effects are called positive feedbacks as their effects increase with temperature. As
far as humans and other life on earth they are negative as they are disrupting weather patterns,
changing environments and raising sea levels and are:

a. Loss of sea ice with a heat reflective index (albedo) of 90% is being lost and replaced by open
sea that absorbs some 80% of solar radiation;
b. The drying climate causes fires that have been dropping ash on the Greenland ice sheet
reducing the albedo and increasing melting.
c. Water from melting ice on Greenland is cutting down to the rock base and lubricating glaciers
that are depositing ice into the sea at exponentially increasing rates.
d. Warmer air temperatures are melting the tundra releasing CO2 and methane whilst increased
sea temperatures are causing solidified methane called clathrates to gasify and release in
increasing volumes into the atmosphere. Freshly released methane has 150 times the effect
of global warming as CO2.
e. Disruption of the arctic vortex and jet streams draws warmer cyclonic air masses and warmer
ocean currents into the polar regions whilst colder air masses are driven south. The Atlantic
Gulf Stream current has been measured penetrating into the Arctic Ocean with temperatures
as high as 18⁰C.

The actual measurement of sea ice loss is far

more rapid than predictions made by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) as shown on Figure 6.2. The IPCC has
predicted a sea level rise of 0.59 m by 2100
from their most extreme model mainly due
to adiabatic expansion of water in the sea
due to increased temperature. This has been
revised by NASA to 1.8m by 2100 as they
expect a larger contributions from the
Greenland and Antarctic ice melt.

Figure 5-2 Measured and Predicted Ice Melt in the Arctic

Other Arctic scientists point out that during melting of the ice sheets at the end of the last ice age
there were periods where they estimate the sea level rose by 5m per centaury. At present no scientist
can give an accurate estimation of sea level rise over the next century. However several Arctic
scientists postulates 2.5m rise by 2040 (See Appendix B) based on exponential release of methane
from hydrates below the Siberian Sea and from tundra. Over the next 30 years it would be prudent to
consider at least a 1m sea level rise and design for that accordingly.

5.3.2 Local Climate Change Impacts

A 1m sea level rise has a profound effect on flood levels in the JIS. Backwater effects in rivers and
drains will cause flooding over banks at higher levels. Astronomic tides and storm surges will be some
2m above the new mean sea level and will produce more destructive waves and currents that will
erode away rice fields. By 2046 some 62,000 ha as shown on Figure 6.3 may be permanently lost if not
protected. In the proposed Binong pilot area some 10,000ha may be permanently under saline water
for 4 months of the year. Providing all drain outlets with non-return flap gates and raising
embankments may be suitable solutions to keep the higher tides out and sea levels from over-topping.

22
Flooding will also be exacerbated by the prediction of more intense runoff by as much as 20% and
increased sediment transport. Drain lines designed for lower duties will partially fill with silts and
overtop banks to inundate rice fields. In section 7.6 proposals are made to protect the two sections
of the coast where the sea has penetrated more than 4km inland. However, the mangrove protection
zone has been systematically stripped along the whole coastline from Jakarta to Indramayu leaving it
vulnerable to erosion. Cost calculations show that providing a 1m high beach with different mangrove
species or other protective vegetation then maintaining and protecting it will be an expensive
undertaking. Even so it will be a sound economic proposal to protect such a large area of productive
rice land.

Figure 5-3 Tambak and Rice Land at Risk from Coastal Erosion and Saline Inundation by 2045

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6 Drainage and Coastal Protection Master Plan
6.1 Overall Plan

The following chapter draws together some initial concepts of remedial action for discussion before
being further studied as part of the Management Plan.

The JIS requires a Drainage and Coastal Protection Master Plan that includes a catchment
management programme. The Citarum cascade of dams has provided the ability to substantially
reduce flooding from the Citarum if the more recent flood management SOPs are adhered to. The
SOPs provide flood storage allowances that can be expanded with revised estimates of potential floods
from more extreme wet season events as predicted by climate change specialists. Other weirs are at
risk of damage from estimated floods of 1 in 100 years return period and require additional spill
facilities as described in the next section. The plan should also include principles of sustainable urban
drainage (SUDs) in existing and proposed industrial and urban areas even though the responsibility for
such areas will transfer to local government. This would include principles of compensatory storage,
permeable parking areas and pavements, infiltration wells and detention basins and permanent
storage ponds. The measures should aim to ensure drainage flows into downstream rice areas should
not be increasing with urban development.

The expected impacts of climate change suggest there are substantial protection measures required
in low lying areas to protect against both increased drainage levels and coastal erosion. Already
farmers in such areas are adapting to the changing adverse situation by not planting between
November and January due to the risk of inundation. In the Yangzi floodplain in the PRC areas have
been turned into polders and allowed to flood in rotation to allow other polders to crop rice with
lower flood risk. In other flooded areas farmers adapt by cultivating a range of aquaculture products:
fish, prawns, shellfish, water chestnuts, lotus etc. These systems could be considered in Jatiluhur.

A LIDAR survey of Jatiluhur would create a digital terrain model that could be used with a flood
modelling package to show present and future flood risks depending on various scenarios and a real-
time view of drainage and river levels for use in flood forecasting. This would assist in identifying
priorities for flood and coastal protection and management.

6.2 Priority Selection

Present priorities identified during rapid appraisal visits have been included in ‘No Regret
Measures’are:

f. Provision of emergency spillways at Barugbug Weir

g. Repair of failing cross drainage structures such as BTT11a;
h. Upgrading or removal of drain re-use structures that do not function properly.
i. Re-establishment of the main cross drain between Ciasem and Cipunegara rivers that needs
enlarging both to the channel and the non-return outlet structures.
j. Coastal protection near Pamanukan and near Citarum Estuary.

24
6.3 Headworks Protection

Emergency spillways are proposed for the Barugbug, Cibeet and Salamdarma weirs.

At Barugbug emergency spillways are advised in both the old Ciherang and the Cilamaya river channels
that can provide at least 740 m3/s discharge. These spillways should activated once a threshold level
has been exceeded and therefore need a high intensity spillway with minimum head. The following is
proposed for costing purposes:

a. For Ciherang a labyrinth spillway, see Figure 7.1, leading to a cascade drop structure and USBR
Type III stilling basin or a USBR baffled chute into the old Ciherang river channel. The old river
channel will be adopted for about 700m until it meets the new Ciherang channel. The channel
has a bend, the outside of which should be given gabion bank protection with a riprap falling
apron. A sill at the outlet should be provided to prevent bed erosion and dissipate any excess
energy to protect the opposite bank of the new channel at the junction.

b. For the Cilamaya River either a labyrinth spillway or, due to limited space, a siphon spillway
and chute over the left bank main canal and cascade drop structure into the Cilamaya stilling
basin as shown on Figure 4.3. A 20m wide spillway has been costed. It will require an
overchute over the right bank main canal. For costing purposes a 15m wide labyrinth weir that
reduces to a 10m wide overchute has been proposed.

During detailed design more time will be spent looking for the most efficient spillway options.

Figure 6-1 Possible Layout of Emergency Spillways for Barugbug Headworks

25
Figure 6-2 Long Section for Ciherang Cascade Spillway for Costing Purposes

The construction of the emergency spillway should be classed as a “No regret” emergency measure.

A lower priority that should be considered are the proposed weirs at Salamdarma and Cibeet where
the estimate for the 1:100 return period floods, see Table 4.1, suggests additional capacities of 711
m3/s for Salamdarma weir and 486 m3/s for Cibeet weir. At Salamdarma it is difficult to build an
emergency spillway either side of the main weir. Modification of the weir to a duckbill shape might be
the easiest solution. At Cibeet the emergency weir could be built around the west abutment of the
main weir.

6.3.1 Requirements for Detailed Design

The following activities are required for preparation for design and for detailed design of the Barugbug
spillway:

a. Reconnaissance surveys of the two possible spillways.

b. Detailed surveys of the structure sites and the Ciherang Floodway.
c. Hydrological assessment of the design floods.
d. Site investigations into the structure foundation materials and borrow areas.
e. Discussion with the local community and government especially if bridges are required over
the structures.
f. Detailed hydraulic, geotechnical and structural design.

At Salamdarma and Cibeet the need to enlarge both spillways needs to be discussed with BBWS. At
both weirs the design floods may be modified by the proposed upstream dams.

6.4 Irrigation System Measures

6.5 Drainage System Intensification

The drainage masterplan will commence by calculating catchment areas and design duties of all cross
rivers and streams and internal drains. Internally they will be built up from the tertiary drainage
systems with unit design flows and areal reduction factors to keep drains to economic sizes. Where
drain and sea levels could be higher than permissible rice inundation levels one way flap gates will be

26
installed at drain control structures. The plan should show a network of drainage canals, confluence
nodes and structures. The proposed hydrodynamic flood model will provide additional flood design
criteria and highlight priorities for implementation. The system should be plotted on the MIS/GIS for
asset management and also integrated into the flood monitoring and warning program.

6.5.1 Upgrading Costs of Drain Reuse Structures

For the structure shown in Figure 6.1a the following will be costed:

a. Site investigation of soil strengths at the abutments.

b. Foundation design of wing walls and access steps.
c. Replacement of steel gates by GRC gates and spindles.
d. Preparation of a design brief to set out the proposed upgrading modifications, expected
materials and design standards.
e. Detailed design of above.
f. Removal of stoplogs at upstream bridge and disposal of garbage.
g. Costs of meetings with WUAs to discuss the drain reuse issues and with the community to
prevent disposal of garbage in drains and canals as well as improving upstream sanitation
along the drain with proper toilets and septic tanks.

Whilst each cross drainage structure will require unique modifications the costs will be estimated from
extrapolating from the pilot structure.

6.6 Coastal Protection Measures

6.6.1 Protection of the Coast near Pamanukan

To protect the wide expanse of low lying rice land from coastal erosion a major protection program is
required involving the many government agencies involved in environmental protection. The
infrastructure component of this plan is shown as a concept on Figure 7.3. The plan should include
dredging sand to form a new protection beach on which a 500m wide band of mangroves will be
developed and protected from the sea until fully established. The area should be designated a
protection forest with severe penalties for anyone cutting or destroying vegetation. Provision for
drainage should be made and a saline channel provided to remaining tambak. The old Cipunegara
river channel should be opened and gated to allow controlled sediment laden flows into the damaged
area to nourish it and raise levels. To prevent further erosion a protection berm should be made
around the damaged area from excavated sands and protected by saline resilient grasses.

27
Figure 6-3 Protection of Rice Land near Cipunegara Estuary

6.6.2 Remedial Measures near Citarum Estuary

Most northerly areas of the command of the North Tarum canal are at increasing risk of coastal
flooding and erosion as documented in the Sediment Environmental Assessment. What is required to
protect the rice lands are:

a. Intergovernmental coordination and collaboration on developing an erosion protection plan

including Bappenas, DGWR, DG Forestry and Agriculture, Aquaculture and local government.
b. A physical plan using soft measures (as opposed to concrete or masonry structures) as shown
on Figure 6.6 to protect vulnerable areas and to replenish eroded areas.
c. The Plan should consider the following interventions:
(i) Dredging and beach formation along the old beach line that is planted to suitable
mangrove species and protecting the beach as a conservation forest.
(ii) Providing drainage through the beach for drainage and to support the remaining tambak
to obtain both fresh water and brackish water.
(iii) A protection bank along the present boundary between the sea and the tambak and rice
fields.
(iv) Providing a floodgate and channel from the Citarum to nourish the area with sediments.

28
Figure 6-4 Coastal Erosion Management Interventions near Citarum Estuary Area

The issues of coastal erosion, the need for a sustainable protection and a management plan and the
institutional arrangements to see it through will be complex. Only the seeds of a conceptual plan can
be provided here. The detailed study of coastal erosion near Semarang 4 illustrates the complex
interplay of coastal and riverine processes and how protection can be provided. The threat to the
Jatiluhur project of coastal erosion and low land flooding is expected to severely increase with global
warming and sea level rise. The emphasis placed in the PMMJIS ToR on these threats and the resources
to combat them is meagre. For this reason it is recommended that the World Bank and DGWR
commission a separate prefeasibility study within the PMMJIS program addendum to quantify the
threat and develop an appropriate action plan to engage all key stakeholders to protect a substantial
area of the JIS.

6.7 Flood and Coastal Modelling

The threat of sea level rise to the future of the Jatiluhur scheme needs to be taken seriously. A higher
sea level will also mean higher backwater effects in rivers, higher astronomic tides of perhaps 2m
above mean sea level and coastal surges that might also cause sea levels to rise by a similar amount.
A proposal to map the JIS using LIDAR which can provide greater than 0.1m accuracy will provide a
DTM for a hydrodynamic model that can interface at the lowest boundary with a tidal model.
Predictions can then be modelled to ascertain the combined effects of more severe catchment floods,
sea level rises during severe coastal events, ground settlement due to urbanization and over exploiting
groundwater and over-irrigation. It is understood that Jakarta, Bekasi, Cikarang and Cikampek are all
overexploiting groundwater and causing ground levels to settle. The areas at greatest risk are those

4
Building with Nature Indonesia-Securing Eroding Delta Coastlines, Wetlands International, Deltares et al.
DGWR, July 2015.

29
close to sea level. The hydrodynamic model can show which areas are at greatest risk from flooding
from combinations of these factors including time series where such factors continue to develop.

6.8 Flood Warning and Monitoring System

All the headworks on the river sources of water for the JIS should be equipped with water surface
sensors that provide information via SCADA for system water management. This equipment can also
provide warnings of rapid rise in water levels to provide information via SCADA and the JIS Control
Centre. This in turn should feed into the National Flood Warning Joint cooperation Program (EFW JCP)
operated in Jakarta.
The proposed real time computer simulation model will be a useful tool in developing strategies for
flood reduction especially if the monitoring and control of the Citarum reservoirs are also built into
the model. As weather can often be predicted several days before impact there should be a return of
information into the Control Centre from the PU and BMKG National Water Information System (WIS).
This system is intended to be the basis for a Flood and Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System
(FDMEWS). This system will provide data on historic floods, flood and drought warnings, marine
monitoring and predictions, satellite and radar data giving short and long-term weather forecasting
and future climate change predictions. The real time water management computer model could be
linked with the proposed JIS hydrodynamic flood model to simulate flood predictions. Strategies could
then be developed to provide protection for communities and farm land and to create storage within
the three Citarum reservoirs in advance.

6.9 Implementation Schedule

This section will be written when a clearer understanding of future planning has been achieved with
key stakeholders following discussions of this paper.

30
Appendices
Appendix 7.A – Reported Areas of Flooding from PJTII Seksi Offices
Appendix 7.B – Jatiluhur Irrigation Flood Map
Appendix 7.C – Report from Arctic News on Sea Level Rise

31
 Appendix 7.A – Reported Areas of Flooding from PJTII Seksi Offices
Table 7.A1 Details of Flooded Areas in WTC and NTC
,
Frequency of Flood Flood Inundated Area Location
No. Occurance duration Depth ha Closest turnout structure(s) Cause of Flooding
hr/day m Village Subdistrict
Rice field Houses

1 2006 10 days 0,30 600 0 Pisangsambo Tirtajaya B.Tub 18 Broken dike of Citarum River
2 2013 7 days 0,30 600 0 Telukbango Batujaya B.Tub 22 Broken dike of Citarum River
3 2016 7 days 0,30 800 0 Telukbuyung Pakisjaya B.Tub 25 - B.Tub 26 Broken dike of Citarum River
4 5 years 6 – 10 hrs 0,30 - 0,40 5 0 Karanganyar Karangbahagia B.Gn 8 Spilling water of DC-0 River

5 2 years 6 – 10 hrs 0,30 - 0,40 0 5 Sertajaya Cikarang Timur B.Tb 29 Spilling water of Cipagadungan River

2007, 2012,
6 32 hrs 0,50 – 0,70 0 0.5 Satriajaya Tambun Utara B.Rwb 4 s/d B.Rwb 6 Spilling water of Bekasi River
2014, 2016

Total area 2,005 5.5

Spilling water from confluence of Cibeet

7 annually 10 days 0,40 100 10 Mekarjati Karawang Barat B.Tub 7
and Citarum Rivers

8 annually 4 days 0,50 20 5 Kosambibatu Cilebar B.Sab 3 s/d B.Sab 5 Spilling water of Ciwadas River

9 annually 2 days 0,50 20 5 Sukakarya Sukakarya B.Kn 10 s/d B.Kn 14 Spilling water of DC-0 River

10 annually 6 – 10 hrs 0,30 - 0,40 0 5 Kutaraharja Cikarang Utara B.St 2 Spilling water of SP. Kaliulu/DC-7 River

Babelan kota,
11 annually 2 days 0,30 - 0,40 0 2 Kedungpengawa Babelan B.Ut 7 s/d B.Ut 9 Spilling water of SP. Cobang River
s, Pusakarakyat

Spilling water from siphon B.Tt 11a entry

Dawuhan
12 annually 3 days 0,50 3 2 Cikampek B.Tt 11a blocked by debris at SP Cikaranggelam
Tengah
River
Karangligar, Spilling water of SP Cidawolong River
13 annually 3 days 1,50 50 2 Telukjambe Barat B.Pen 2
Mekarmulia due to back water of Cibeet River.
Total area 193 31

Karangsari, Rengasdengklok, Cropping intensity 1 crop/yr using pump

14 annually 10 days 0,40 10 0 B.Tub 9a s/d B.Tub 10
Tunggakjati Karawang Barat in dry season
Kutaampel, Cropping intensity 1 crop/yr using pump
15 annually 10 days 0,30 5 0 Batujaya B.Tub 19 s/d B.Tub 20
Karyamakmur in dry season

Bumibakti,
Kedungpengawa
16 annually 2 days 0,30 - 0,40 217 0 Babelan B.Krn 2 s/d B.Krn 3 Problem of existing drainage canal
s, Kedungjaya,
Samudrajaya

Sukawangi,
Sukamaju,
17 annually 2 days 0,40 100 0 Tambelang, Cibitung B.Kl 7 s/d B.Kl 9 No drainage canal
Sukajaya,
Sarimukti
Sukaindah,
Sukakarya, Cabang
18 annually 2 days 0,40 109 0 Sindangsari, B.Krg 8 No drainage canal
Bungin
Sindangjaya
Sukawijaya,
Sukabakti, Tambelang,
19 annually 2 days 0,40 417 0 B.Bt 10 s/d B.Bt 12 No drainage canal
Sukabudi, Sukawangi
Sukadaya
Problem of existing drainage canal of SP
20 annually 1 days 0,40 78 0 Sukamekar Sukawangi B.Plk 5
Gelang
Sukaindah,
21 annually 2 days 0,40 170 0 Sukakarya B.Sh 13 s/d B.Sh 16 No drainage canal
Sukamurni
Sukakerta,
Sukawangi, Cabang
22 annually 2 days 0,40 94 0 Sukaringin, B.Sh 21 No drainage canal
Bungin
Jayabakti
23 annually 2 days 0,40 98 0 Pantaihurip Jaya Muaragembong B.Sh 28 No drainage canal

Luas genangan karena drainase jelek: 1,298 0

Legend
Flood due to spilling water of river Flood duration Flood depth
Annually > 1 day 0.30 - 0.50 m
Particular year > 1 day 0.30 - 0.70 m
Flood due to bad drainage
Annually > 1 day 0.30 - 0.40 m

32
Table 7.A2 Coastal Areas of tambaks with Some Rice Land Subject to Flooding

KODE PERIODE DURATION HEIGHT AREA ESTIMATION LOCATION OF INUNDATION COMAND AREA
No. INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION Desa Kecamatan CAUSE INUNDATION
hari/bulan m Ha Secondary Canal Structure Tertiary block

Rainwater in the area of land can not be drain

66.00 Pangarengan Legonkulon BLg 7 Lg 7 ki. because water level of Cipunegara river high
41.00 Pangarengan Legonkulon BLg 8 Lg 8 ki. Likewise, the high sea ( sea water level)
1 1a1) annual 2-3 months 0,5 - 1 7.00 Pangarengan Legonkulon SS. Legon BLg 8 Lg.8 ka. water stuck in drainage canal and land, Plus the discharge
every year during 46.00 Pangarengan Legonkulon BLg 9 Lg 9 ki. of water from the upstream Drainaged canal from
wet season 5.00 Pangarengan Legonkulon BLg 9 Lg 9 ka. Gadung irrigation passing through the land. If water level of
28.00 Pangarengan Legonkulon BLg 10 Lg 10 ki. Cipunegara River higher, water gets into land through
193.00 drainaged canal

37.00 Tegallurung Legonkulon SS. Tegalpanjang BTlp 2 Tlp.2 ki. Rainwater in the area of land can not be drain
77.00 Tegallurung Legonkulon Tlp.2 ka. because water level of Anggasari and Kamal river high
114.00 to throw into the sea is very small
2 1a2) annual 2-3 months 0,5 - 1 35.00 Tegallurung Legonkulon Pp.3 ka. due to tidal or water level difference is small
every year during 55.00 Tegallurung Legonkulon SS. Poponcol BPp 3 Pp.3 ki. between the water level in the exhaust line with sea level
wet season 25.00 Anggasari Sukasari Pp.3 ki. average
115.00
91.00 Anggasari Sukasari Agr.4 ka./5 ki.
75.00 Anggasari Sukasari SS. Anggaranu BAgr 5 Agr.4 ka./5 te.
46.00 Anggasari Sukasari Agr.4 ka./5 ka.
212.00
441.00

2-3 months Rainwater in the area of land can not be drain

3 1a3) annual during 0,5 - 1 30.00 Tanjungtiga Blanakan SS. Tanjung tiga BTg 5 Tg.5 ka. because water level of Ciasem river and Sea high
every year wet season 30.00 so the water retained in the drainaged canal and land,
Plus water from upstream because many drainage channels
passing through the land
104.00 Karang Mulya Legon Kulon BPrn 6 Prn.6 ka. Rainwater in the area of land can not be drain
1 1a4) annual 2-3 months 0,5 - 1 150.00 Pangarengan Legon Kulon SS. Pengarengan BPrn 7 Prn.7 ka.1 because water level of Cipunegara river and Sea high
every year during 142.00 Pangarengan Legon Kulon Prn.7 ka.2 so the water retained in the drainaged canal and land,
wet season 396.00
66.00 Rancadaka Pusakanegara Pnk.14 ka. Plus the discharge of water from the upstream Genteng
152.00 Rancadaka Pusakanegara BPnk 14 Pnk.14 ki. drainaged channel passing through the land.
57.00 Rancadaka Pusakanegara Pnk.15 ka. If the water level is higher Cipunegara River, water gets
47.00 Rancadaka Pusakanegara SS. Pamanukan BPnk 15 Pnk.15 ki. into the land through the drainaged channel
53.00 Bobos Legon Kulon Pnk.16 ka.
60.00 Bobos Legon Kulon BPnk 16 Pnk.16 ki.
74.00 Bobos Legon Kulon Pnk.17 ka.
70.00 Bobos Legon Kulon BPnk 17 Pnk.17 ki.
579.00
975.00

33
 Table 7.A3 Inundated Riceland, 7-15 Days at Depth >0.5m

KODE PERIODE DURATION HEIGHT AREA ESTIMATION LOCATION OF INUNDATION COMAND AREA
No. INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION Desa Kecamatan CAUSE INUNDATION
hari/bulan m Ha Secondary Canal Structure Tertiary block

7 - 15 days 80.00 Karanganyar Pusakanegara Bkar 2 Kar.2 ki. Rainwater in the area of land can not be drain
1 2a1) annual during 0,5 - 1 134.00 Karanganyar Pusakanegara Kar.2 ka. because water level of Sewo river and Sea high
every year wet season 116.00 Karanganyar Pusakanegara Kar.3 ki.
137.00 Karanganyar Pusakanegara SS. Karanganyar Bkar 3 Kar.3 ka. Air stuck in the drainage Channel and land .
56.00 Karanganyar Pusakanegara Kar.4 ki. Plus the discharge of water from the upstream Tambo
56.00 Kebondanas Pusakajaya Bkar 4 Kar.4 ki. drainaged channel and Bakiak drainage Channel passing
90.00 Karanganyar Pusakanegara Kar.4 te. through the land.
50.00 Kebondanas Pusakajaya Kar.4 ka.
719.00

119.00 Plawangan Bongas E.9 ka.1 Rainwater in the area of land can not be drain
114.00 Kertawinangun Kandanghaur BE 9 E.9 ka.1 to the sea because the culvert outlet drainage channel
212.00 Plawangan Bongas E.9 ka.2 north of the road becomes a little distracted by
7 - 15 days 109.00 Plawangan Bongas E.9 ka.3 the restaurant business along the road where
2 2a2) annual during 0,5 - 1 57.00 Eretan Kulon Kandanghaur E.10 ki. several culvert waster disturbed in removing water discharge
every year wet season 99.00 Bugel Sukra BE 10 E.10 ki. into the sea
214.00 Kertawinangun Kandanghaur E.10 ka. The restaurant among others, are home eating Pringsewu etc.
144.00 Soge Kandanghaur SS. Eretan E.10 ka.
69.00 Kertawinangun Kandanghaur E.11A ka.
110.00 Eretan Kulon Kandanghaur E.11 ki.
46.00 Eretan Kulon Kandanghaur BE 11 E.11 te.
125.00 Kertawinangun Kandanghaur E.11 te.
117.00 Kertawinangun Kandanghaur E.11 ka.
50.00 Eretan Kulon Kandanghaur E.11 ka.
1,585.00

27.00 Gabus Wetan Gabus Wetan Ka.1 ki.1 Rainwater in the area of land can not be drain in to the sea
119.00 Wirakanan Kandanghaur BKa 1 Ka.1 ki.1 because the water level in the Kaliasin river high
7 - 15 days 114.00 Wirakanan Kandanghaur Ka.1 ki.2
3 2a3) annual during 0,5 - 1 33.00 Wirakanan Kandanghaur Ka.1 ka.
every year wet season 42.00 Wirakanan Kandanghaur SS. Kaliasin BKa 2 Ka.2 ki.1
71.00 Wirakanan Kandanghaur Ka.2 ki.2
53.00 Wirakanan Kandanghaur BKa 3 Ka.3 ki.
46.00 Pranti Kandanghaur Ka.3 ki.
134.00 Bulak Kandanghaur BKa 4 Ka.4 ki.
62.00 Bulak Kandanghaur Ka.4 ka.
701.00

34
Table 7.A 4 Inundated Riceland, 5-7 Days at Depth >0.5m

KODE PERIODE DURATION HEIGHT AREA ESTIMATION LOCATION OF INUNDATION COMAND AREA
No. INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION INUNDATION Desa Kecamatan CAUSE INUNDATION
hari/bulan m Ha Secondary Canal Structure Tertiary block

148.00 Bojong Tengah Pusakajaya Pnk.8 ki. to Cipunegara river. where the location is after the meeting
5 - 7 days 102.00 Bojong Jaya Pusakajaya SS. Pamanukan Pnk.9 ka. Cigadung river by Cipunegara river
1 3a1) annual during 0,5 - 1 17.00 Pusakajaya Pusakajaya BPnk 9 Pnk.9 ka.
every year wet season 111.00 Bojong Tengah Pusakanegara Pnk.9 ki.
378.00
30.00 Bongas Pamanukan BSg 4 Sg.4 ki.
22.00 Bongas Pamanukan Sg.4 ka.
7.00 Bongas Pamanukan Sg.5 ki.
75.00 Rancahilir Pamanukan SS. S. Heulang Sg.5 ki.
20.00 Mulyasari Pamanukan BSg 5 Sg.5 ki.
34.00 Rancahilir Pamanukan Sg.5 ka.
29.00 Bongas Pamanukan Sg.5 ka.
217.00
595.00

42.00 Dukuh Ciasem Dh.2 ki rainwater on the land area, can not be removed in to
5 - 7 days 50.00 Jatibaru Ciasem BDh 2 Dh.2 ki the Ciasem river
2 3a2) annual during 0,5 - 1 143.00 Dukuh Ciasem SS. Dukuh Dh.2 ka. and the overflow of water of Cijambe drainage channel
every year wet season 100.00 Dukuh Ciasem BDh 3 Dh.3 ka. because the flow is halted the the water level on the
50.00 Dukuh Ciasem Dh.4 ki. Ciasem River
100.00 Dukuh Ciasem BDh 4 Dh.4 ka.
485.00
60.00 Dukuh Ciasem BKrt 5 Krt. - /5 ki.
25.00 Dukuh Ciasem BKrt 6 Krt. - /6 ki.
25.00 Dukuh Ciasem SS. Karangtoman BKrt 7 Krt. - /7 ki.
14.00 Dukuh Ciasem BKrt 8 Krt. - / 8 ki.
122.00 Dukuh Ciasem Krt. 4 / 7 ka.
246.00
731.00

101.00 Lemahabang Karawang SS. Babawangan BBwn 3 Bwn.3 ki rainwater on the land can not be removed into the Cibulan river
5 - 7 days 101.00 because the water level in the Cibulan river high
3 3a3) annual during 0,5 - 1 245.00 Tempuran Karawang SS. Lemahduwur BLd 2 Ld.2 ki In addition to the topography of land in this area low
every year wet season 168.00 Telagasari & Karawang Ld.2 ka like a bowl
413.00 Tempuran
514.00

5 - 7 days 40.00 Cilebar Karawang Ckk.3 ki rainwater on the land can not be removed because of low
4 3a4) annual during 0,5 - 1 81.00 Cilebar Karawang SS. Lemahduwur BCkk 3 Ckk.3 te land forms such as a bowl
every year wet season 30.00 Cilebar Karawang Ckk.3 ka
151.00

58.00 Ciasem Baru Ciasem SS. Keboncau Kcu.1 te./3 ki. rainwater on the land can not be removed into the Ciasem river
90.00 Ciasem Baru Ciasem Kcu.1 te./3 ka. Cijengkol river or into the sea because
1 4a1) annual during 0,5 - 1 148.00 High water levels in rivers and the sea they will be high enough
every year wet season 72.00 Muara Blanakan SS. Jengkol Jk. - /8 ki.
5.00 Muara Blanakan Jk. - /8 ka.
77.00
225.00
TOTAL 6,860.00

35
APPENDIX 7.B – Jatiluhur Irrigation Flood Map

36
Appendix 7.C – Report from Arctic News on Sea Level Rise

Article from Arctic News, Tuesday 29, 2014

More than 2.5m Sea Level Rise by 2040?

A warming period more than 400,000 years ago pushed the Greenland ice sheet past its stability
threshold (which may have been no more than several degrees above pre-industrial temperatures).
This resulted in a nearly complete deglaciation of southern Greenland, raising global sea levels some
4.5-6 meters, found a recent study by Reyes et al. Due to melting elsewhere, global mean sea level
then was 6 to 13 metres above the present level. Indeed, melting of the entire West Antarctic Ice
Sheet can add a further 6-meter rise in sea levels. If the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) were to melt as
well, sea levels would rise by around 70 metres.

Sea level is now rising by 3.1mm (0.122 inch) per year. Much of this rise is due to rising temperatures,
but there are also other factors. One quarter of the rise results from groundwater depletion, while run
off from melting ice and glaciers adds another quarter and the remainder is attributed to thermal
expansion of sea water. Furthermore, as temperatures rise, feedbacks start to kick in, e.g. the kinetic
energy from stronger waves and more intense storms can speed things up.

Clearly, a rapid multi-meter rise would be devastating as it would flood many coastal cities, as well as
much of the land now used to grow food. By how much have sea levels been rising recently and how
fast can they be expected to rise in the near future?

37
 NASA image, data by the JPL PODAAC, in support of the NASA's Measures program.

Sea levels have risen by some 60 mm over the past 20 years, as above NASA image shows, which has
a linear trend line added. The question is whether a linear trend line is the most appropriate trend
line, given that it suggests that a similar rise could be expected over the next 20 years. A polynomial
trend line appears to fit the data better, as the animation below shows.

Such a polynomial trend line, however, points at a similar rise (of some 50 mm) in just four years’ time,
with an even steeper rise to follow, as illustrated by the image below.

38
And indeed, such a rise doesn't slow down there. A polynomial trend line applied to the data points
at a sea level rise of more than 2.5 m by the year 2040.

39