Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A.: Update To Credit Analysis
Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A.: Update To Credit Analysis
Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A.: Update To Credit Analysis
CREDIT OPINION
29 January 2018
Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A.
Update to credit analysis
Update Summary
Moody's assigns a stand-alone credit assessment (BCA) of ba2 to Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A.
(Regional), the second largest bank in Paraguay by market share of loans. The ba2 BCA
reflects Regional's below system delinquency levels, the high concentration of its loan
book to the agriculture sector as well as its adequate capital and profitability. The BCA also
RATINGS incorporates the bank's strong reliance on deposit based funding, in large part due to its
Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A. broad geographic footprint, and adequate levels of liquid assets. Regional's long-term global
Domicile Paraguay local currency deposit rating of Ba1 derives from the bank's BCA of ba2 and incorporates
Long Term Debt Ba1
a one notch uplift as a result of Moody's assessment of a high probability of government
Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn
Curr support to the bank in an event of stress.
Outlook Stable
Long Term Deposit Ba2 Exhibit 1
Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Banco Regional - Key financial ratios
Curr
Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A. (BCA: ba2) Median ba2-rated banks
Outlook Stable
16% 35%
14% 30%
Please see the ratings section at the end of this report
12%
for more information. The ratings and outlook shown 25%
Liquidity Factors
Solvency Factors
CLIENT SERVICES » Stable core funding sources and high liquidity profile as a result of broad branch network
Americas 1-212-553-1653
» Adequate capitalization as a result of good earnings generation
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077
Japan 81-3-5408-4100
EMEA 44-20-7772-5454
MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
Credit challenges
» High concentration of lending operations with borrowers in the agriculture segment increases asset risk volatility
» Potential for increase in provisions for loan losses that would pressure profitability
Outlook
The outlook on all ratings is stable. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Regional's standalone credit profile will remain
resilient to a the deterioration in asset quality in the Paraguayan banking system over the next 12 to 18 months.
Key indicators
Exhibit 2
Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A. (Unconsolidated Financials) [1]
9-172 12-162 12-152 12-142 12-132 CAGR/Avg.3
Total Assets (PYG billion) 14,887 15,033 15,307 13,712 11,985 6.04
Total Assets (USD million) 2,626 2,607 2,647 2,958 2,606 0.24
Tangible Common Equity (PYG billion) 1,227 1,169 976 809 650 18.54
Tangible Common Equity (USD million) 216 203 169 174 141 12.04
Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.25
Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 14.4 13.3 10.2 9.5 8.4 11.26
Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 18.8 15.6 20.1 19.9 21.7 19.25
Net Interest Margin (%) 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.6 4.1 4.25
PPI / Average RWA (%) 4.4 5.0 4.5 2.9 3.2 4.06
Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.35
Cost / Income Ratio (%) 50.7 46.7 48.9 60.2 59.2 53.15
Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 25.0 24.7 26.1 25.9 20.1 24.35
Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 18.7 19.4 17.2 18.3 20.8 18.95
Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 119.5 115.5 121.8 115.5 102.6 115.05
[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel I; LOCAL GAAP [3] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [4] Compound
Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of
Basel I periods presented
Source: Moody's Financial Metrics
Profile
The first Banco Regional was created in the city of Encarnación, in 1991, focusing in agribusiness, and supporting the development and
strengthening of producers in the region.
In 2008, Rabobank from the Netherlands joins the bank as a shareholder with 40% of the shares, and Banco Regional S.A. becomes
Banco Regional S.A.E.C.A. and the largest issue of shares in the local stock exchange is made. The Bank gets access to the Global Trade
This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on
www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Finance Program from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). The next year,
Banco Regional acquires 100% of ABN AMRO Paraguay.
Currently, Regional is one of the leading financial entities in Paraguay, focussing on lending to the agricultural sector.
In 3Q2017, Regional reported a problem loans of 2.7%, showing an expected increase from the 2.05% reported in 2016 and below the
system's average of 3.3%. The bank's asset quality has benefited from the adequate performance of its loan book with corporate clients
and SMEs. In addition, Regional also benefits from the risk-management practices, risk discipline and expertise in the agribusiness
sector of Rabobank (Aa2 stable, a2), which holds a 38.7% ownership stake in the bank. The bank also reported an adequate level of
reserves to withstand potential losses derived from loan operations and as of September 2017 they represented 3.15% of gross loans,
higher than the 2.5% registered in 2016, covering problem loans by 119%. However, restructured loans have grown significantly at the
bank, yet decreased to 6% of total loans from the 7% in 2016, a sign of the effects of 2015-2016's twin shocks of commodity price
declines and guarani depreciation.
Regional has the second largest market share in terms of loans and third by deposits in Paraguay. The bank has roughly 80% of its loan
book, comprised mostly of working capital credit lines and foreign trade facilities, with corporate clients, while small and medium sized
companies (SME) answer for 16% of the total. The bank's exposure to consumer finance is small, representing about 4% of total loans,
mostly in the form of personal loans and credit cards.
During the first 3 quarters of 2017, Regional's loan book just increased by 1%, still higher than the 7.6% fall in 2016. This show a partial
recovery from the system from previous loan book contraction which was a result of demand volatility from the agricultural sector in
light of commodity price swings. The Paraguayan banking system's problem loans were affected by the drop in commodity prices in
2014 and 2015, which has also affected Regional's asset risk through corporate clients associated with the agriculture segment. The
cyclical nature of the agribusiness sector is also a challenge for management of asset risk, as it adds volatility to the performance of the
loan book. The ba2 score for asset risk also incorporates our view of potential volatility in asset quality.
Despite a recent increase in loan delinquency, loan growth in Paraguiay will be supported by estimates of GDP growth of 4% in 2017
and 4.5% in 2018 and in our view, Regional's capital position means the bank is well positioned to expand its loan book. Regional also
has Tier 2 subordinated capital which accounted for 350 basis points of capital as of December 2016.
As of September 2017, Regional reported net income of PYG136.8 billion, lower than the PYG168,9 billion in the previous year, despite
a 21% decrease in provision expenses to PYG141 billion. The decrease in Regional's bottom-line result was driven by a 9.2% interest
margin, and a 7% decrease in non-interest margin, which resulted in a 10% decrease in the operative margin.
Total deposits represented approximately 75% of total funding as of 3Q2017. Within total deposits, 50% are demand and 50% are
time deposits, which is relatively in line with the financial system. The bank's deposits base is well diversified among corporate and
retail clients. Similar to other banks in Paraguay, Regional's largest depositor is the Instituto de Previsión Social, Paraguay's social
security system.
In recent years, Regional has improved its funding mix by adding credit lines from international financial institutions to its deposits in
the domestic market. The bank also holds a sufficient level of liquid assets to counter its exposure to market funds and as of September
2017 they represented 18.7% of liquid banking assets over tangible banking assets which maps to a b1 score for liquid assets.
Factor Historic Macro Credit Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2
Ratio Adjusted Trend
Score
Solvency
Asset Risk
Problem Loans / Gross Loans 2.7% ba2 ←→ ba3 Sector concentration
Capital
TCE / RWA 14.4% ba1 ←→ ba2 Capital retention
Profitability
Net Income / Tangible Assets 1.2% ba2 ←→ ba2 Expected trend
Combined Solvency Score ba2 ba2
Liquidity
Funding Structure
Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 24.7% ba3 ←→ ba3 Extent of market
funding reliance
Liquid Resources
Instrument class Loss Given Additional Preliminary Rating Government Local Currency Foreign
Failure notching Notching Assessment Support notching Rating Currency
Rating
Counterparty Risk Assessment 1 0 ba1 (cr) 0 Ba1 (cr) --
Deposits 0 0 ba2 1 Ba1 Ba2
Senior unsecured bank debt 0 0 ba2 1 -- Ba1
Source: Moody's Financial Metrics
Regional's CR Assessment is positioned at Ba1(cr) and Not Prime (cr), which is one-notch above the bank's Adjusted BCA of ba2.
However, the CR Assessment is at the same level as Regional's deposit rating, which benefit from one-notch of government support.
Ratings
Exhibit 4
Category Moody's Rating
BANCO REGIONAL S.A.E.C.A.
Outlook Stable
Bank Deposits -Fgn Curr Ba2/NP
Bank Deposits -Dom Curr Ba1/NP
Baseline Credit Assessment ba2
Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba2
Counterparty Risk Assessment Ba1(cr)/NP(cr)
Senior Unsecured Ba1
Source: Moody's Investors Service
» Banking system outlook: Strong Capital and Profitability Offset Asset Risk, Support Stable Outlook (1081023)
Rating action
Rating methodology
Credit opinion
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CLIENT SERVICES
Americas 1-212-553-1653
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077
Japan 81-3-5408-4100
EMEA 44-20-7772-5454