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The passage discusses world population growth trends over time and the factors that influence population growth rates.

World population growth has increased rapidly since 1800 but the growth rate has been slowing down since peaking in the 1960s. Total world population is expected to reach around 10 billion by 2100.

Birth and death rates, development levels, disease prevalence (like HIV/AIDS), and access to family planning and healthcare can all impact population growth rates in different regions.

Complete

Geography
for Cambridge IGCSE®

Revision Guide

Muriel Fretwell
David Kelly

Oxford excellence for Cambridge IGCSE®


1 World population growth
10
Actual
9.5
Predicted
9
8.5
8
Green Revolution: development of new varieties of cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize 7.5
increasing food production in many countries
7
6.5

Population in billions
6
Revolutions in Medicine and Sanitation: many diseases eliminated or reduced 5.5
5
4.5
4
Industrial and Agricultural Revolutions in Europe and 3.5
North America: technological advances in food production,
3
distribution and exchange for industrial goods
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2183
Years

▲ World population growth

Key Ideas
➔ Until 1960 the world population grew at an more than 60 per cent of the total world
increasingly fast rate. The extremely rapid population by 2050.
increase since 1800 is described as a ➔ In some LEDCs, especially in sub-Saharan
population explosion. Africa, HIV and AIDS caused population
➔ The rate of growth is slowing, as the highest growth rates to fall (although total
growth rate was 2.2 per cent in the 1960s. populations are still rising).
It had fallen to 1.1 per cent by 2011. ➔ In MEDCs in stage 5 of the demographic
➔ Total world population reached 7 billion transition model, total populations are
in 2011, having risen from 3 billion in the falling.
1960s. Growth is expected to reach 10 billion ➔ Population growth will put a great strain
around 2183, before starting to fall. on resources, such as water, food, and
➔ Populations are still growing very rapidly in energy supplies, as well as leading to the
some countries, especially in Africa and South loss of natural vegetation and farmland for
East Asia; these regions are expected to have housing developments.

The natural increase or decrease of population depends on the difference


between the birth and death rates.
• birth rate 5 the number born each year per 1000 people
• death rate 5 the number of people who die each year per 1000 people
• the rate of natural increase or decrease 5 birth rate minus death rate
(Net International migration (Chapter 3) also changes the total population
of a country).

2
World population growth 1

increased food
Agricultural Revolution
production

lower death rates


machinery reduced the
agricultural work force

better health care,


movement of sanitation and cleaner
Industrial Revolution
people to towns water supplies

▲ The influence of the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions on death rates

The Demographic Transition Model shows the stages in population


growth that some MEDCs have experienced and other countries are
expected to follow.

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5


Most LEDCs NICs Most MEDCs Some MEDCs,
High e.g. Japan

Birth rate Total


population

Births and deaths Death


per 1000 people rate
per year

Low
Time

▲ The Demographic Transition Model

LEDCs have a high rate of natural increase caused by their high birth rates being
considerably larger than their death rates, which have fallen rapidly (but still remain
higher than those of MEDCs).
Most MEDCs have low rates of natural increase because their birth and death rates
are both low.
Countries in stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model have falling total
populations because their death rates are higher than their birth rates. This is because
of high life expectancies - the elderly form a high proportion of their populations
(e.g. Japan and Italy).
Russia has a declining population because the birth rate is low and the death rate higher.
This is because alcoholism and smoking are common and lead to more car accidents,
heart attacks and general poor health. (Russia’s declining population problem is made
even worse because more migrants leave the country than move to live there.)

3
IGCSE Revision guide: Geography

Practice questions
1. Using the information in the table, calculate the percentage rate of
natural population increase for Niger (LEDC in Africa) and Ukraine
(MEDC in Europe).

Country Birth rate Death rate Natural population


increase (%)
India (2011 est.) 21.0 7.5 1.35
Niger (2011 est.) 50.5 14.1
Afghanistan (1950) 52.9 36.7 16.2
Ukraine (2011 est.) 9.6 15.7
USA (2011 est.) 13.8 8.4 0.54

2. List the stages 1-5 of the Demographic Transition Model in order. For
each stage, write the name of the country which has the characteristics
of that stage, and the year. Choose from countries in the table above.

3. Use words from the box below to complete the table showing
characteristics of each stage of the Demographic Transition Model. Some
have been completed for you. You may use some more than once.

falling rapidly falling slowly


high and fluctuating slowly growing at first then rising rapidly
high and stationary low and stationary
low and fluctuating rising slowly

A summary of the Demographic Transition Model


Stage Birth rate Death rate Population total
1 high and fluctuating
2 falling rapidly
3 rising rapidly
4
5

4. Classify the following influences on high birth rates in LEDCs under


the headings:
A Cultural, social and religious B Demographic C Economic
• children provide labour for family farms
• children provide income to support parents
• children give prestige to a man
• poverty of government and citizens means little contraception provided
• desire for a son to carry on the family name
• high proportion of females in the population
• illiteracy and ignorance because of lack of education
• contraception is forbidden or discouraged
• a large number in the child-bearing ages
• early marriage
• to ensure some children survive because of high infant mortality rates
• polygamy
• low status of women

4
World population growth 1

5. The diagram shows why birth rates are falling. Suggest the reason that
each box shows and explain why it reduces birth rates.

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8

______ _ marriage

▲ Ways of reducing birth rates

6. Find six reasons (each 2 or 3 words long) to explain the fall in the
death rate which has occurred in most countries. They may be shown
horizontally or vertically.

C F E D K L M A O P R T Y C G M N O L X Z V
L P B N M U O J L V D E M J Q S T N Y L P A
E T R N G R E A T E R K N O W L E D G E G C
A H M Y X P T L M B C R Y N O A N O V S T C
N U I X P Q W E S A N M G L D F P B V C N I
W Q Y R W Z X S A G F D C N M L K O P B C N
A P S Z X W Q U I R E D F G H J O L S N V A
T O M S B E T T E R S A N I T A T I O N L T
E A X C F G E W Q H T Y U I O P L J K G D I
R W F G E G H A X C V B N O P W D F S C O O
S Z X C V D F G H J K L Q R T Y U I O P A N
U A D Z X F G G H J K O L H R T Y I O A C S
P Q S D F G E U I P E V N M S Z S G K L Q A
P X B N A G K L M S F E T U I P Q O F J S N
L M A O E P W H L D L R Y V N M S J E D K D
I M P R O V E D D I E T S A Z M S W Q G L M
E Z A B S G J K L E O E P D G A D F W K L E
S P W E R U I O E N M C V S G H L X Z C V D
A X C V B M F H S K L W E T Y I O P E R W I
B E T T E R M E D I C A L C A R E A S D F C
X C V B S G H J K L E R Y U I O P E D G S I
C S F G H J L W R Y U I O P S C V D H E T N
L T E I P E P E C D G J K E L E L F C D E E
A P E B N M S H J W Z A D F S C Y R O D J S

5
2 Population variations and associated problems
Over-population and under-population
Over-population Under-population
Poor standard of living because there are All the resources are not used to maximum efficiency
too few resources to build a strong economy

too few
too few people
resources

too many resources


people

Characteristic Under-populated Over-populated


country e.g. Australia country e.g. Bangladesh
Unemployment Low High
Energy and mineral resources Many Few
GDP (gross domestic product a Large Small
measure of wealth)
Export earnings High Low
Standard of living, health and High Low
education services
Net population movement Immigration Emigration
Main sector of employment Tertiary (services) Primary (agriculture)
Main problems caused by Shortage of workers and foreign investors Shortage of food leading to over-
population imbalance with to develop and use the resources. Policy to cultivation of soils, deforestation, soil
resources attract immigrant workers leads to social erosion and soil exhaustion, poverty,
conflict and tension in cities (e.g. Brisbane). overcrowded urban areas (e.g.
High cost of imports of goods not produced Dhaka), squatter settlements, water,
in the country. noise and air pollution, crime.

Population structure
Kenya Italy
males Age females males Age females
80 elderly 80
dependents
70 70
65 and over
60 60
economically
50 50
active
40 (working age) 40
30 support the 30
dependents
20 20
young
10 10
dependents
0 0–14 yrs 0
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5
per cent of total population per cent of total population

6
Population variations and associated problems 2

Key Ideas
➔ Population structure (the proportions or numbers of males and
females in the young, middle aged and elderly age groups) is shown on
a population pyramid.
young dependents 1 old dependents
➔ The dependency ratio 5 3 100
working population
➔ Countries in different stages of the Demographic Transition Model
have different population structures that cause different problems that
in turn need different government policies to try to solve them.

Variations in dependent populations and standards of living


Indicators of standards of living include GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per
person, literacy, energy consumption, and calorie intake: these are highest
in MEDCs. Financing the needs of an increasing dependent population
results in lower living standards for the economically active in any country
and reduces the amount available for developing the country.

Problems Main needs Solutions


LEDCs Many young More health care, Policies to reduce birth rates but
dependents schools and food governments have inadequate
supplies. More jobs financial resources to provide enough
for the increasing family planning and other needs
workforce.
MEDCs Many More residential To finance the needs of the elderly,
e.g. elderly homes, social support Japan increased taxes, raised the state
Japan dependents and medical care. pension age and started an insurance
More workers to scheme for workers to cover the costs
maintain industries needed later in life. The elderly share
and support the the costs of their care.
dependents To increase the workforce Japan
encouraged immigration and allowed
pensioners to continue working. The
alternative is to reduce services.

Mexico’s changed population policies in response to changing population problems


Date and reason Policy Result of policy
1936 to increase the workforce. A law was passed to encourage Very rapid growth, mainly achieved
(Population growth rate about 0%). Stage marriage, child bearing, women’s by immigration
1 of the Demographic Transition Model) health and immigration
1947 to further increase the workforce, A new law promoting greater Rapid growth resulted from a
as workers were emigrating, especially to immigration very high fertility rate and falling
the USA death rate. (now Stage 2 of the
Demographic Transition Model)
1974 population rising too quickly to allow Women given equal rights to family Growth rate slowed from 3.5% to
economic development planning and work. Aims spread by 1.5% by 2000.
education and the media.

7
IGCSE Revision guide: Geography

Population density and distribution


Key Ideas
total population
➔ Population density 5
area
➔ Population distribution is how the population is spread in an area.

Reasons for low population densities


Physical Human and Economic
Hot deserts Too little water Lack of transport routes
Marshy areas Too much water Difficult transport, few suitable settlement sites
High or steep Too steep and too cold for arable farming at Difficult transport, few suitable settlement
mountain slopes high altitudes sites
High latitudes Too cold for agriculture. Frozen ground and long Snow, ice and swampy ground in the summer
periods of darkness make other activities difficult make transport difficult
Other areas Infertile soils (where no other economic activity Lack of minerals or other resources for
is possible) development

Practice questions
Which one statement in each of the following groups is correct?
1. Foreign investors are not attracted to under-populated countries because:
a) the population is poor c) the domestic market is small
b) living standards are low d) workers have low levels of
literacy

Under-populated countries import foodstuffs and manufactured


goods because:
a) they do not have the raw materials to manufacture them
b) they have a shortage of workers to produce them
c) they are cheap to import
d) they cannot afford fertiliser and machinery

Under-populated countries export minerals and agricultural products because:


a) they do not have the skilled workers to turn them into manufactured goods
b) it is cheap to import goods made from them
c) they are surplus to the population’s needs
d) they have a shortage of suitable land for industry

2. Calculate the population densities of Australia and Bangladesh.

Country Australia Bangladesh


Population total 21 700 000 158 000 000
(2011) (2011)
Area 7 617 930 km2 147 570 km2
Population density per km2 per km2

8
Population variations and associated problems 2

3. Use the diagram to answer the following questions.


Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Age
65

15

Most LEDCs NICs Most MEDCs Some MEDCs,


e.g. Mexico e.g. Brazil e.g. USA e.g. Japan

a) Write the stages of the demographic transition model as a list. For each,
write any the following descriptions that apply to the shape of the
population pyramid it represents:
slightly convex sides, triangular, concave sides, very convex sides,
straight sides (thins slowly from the base upwards), rapidly narrows
from 15 years to the base

b) Identify which stage has:


i) the highest proportion vi) a rapidly growing
of elderly dependents population
ii) the highest proportion vii) a rapidly shrinking and
of young dependents ageing population
iii) the lowest proportion viii) the highest birth rate
of elderly dependents (two possible answers)
iv) the lowest proportion ix) the lowest birth rate
of young dependents x) the lowest life
v) the lowest number of expectancy
children to grow up to xi) the lowest death rate.
become workers, so a
worse dependency ratio
in the future,

4. Calculate the dependency ratio for Japan.

Population under Population 65 and Population 15 2


15 (thousands) over (thousands) 64 (thousands
16 500 31 900 80 910

5. Explain the different ways in which urbanisation leads to reduced


birth rates.

6. Briefly compare the population structures of Kenya and Italy (page 6)


in a table.

7. List as many reasons as you can think of for areas having high
population densities. Arrange then under two headings - Physical
reasons and Human and Economic reasons

9
3 The effects of migration and HIV/AIDS
The influence of migration on population
growth rates
Migration is the movement of people from one place to another.

source area for emigrants destination area for migrants


migration
population decrease population increase

Key Ideas
➔ Net migration for an area is calculated by:
number of immigrants 2 number of emigrants
➔ If more people come in than leave, the net migration is a positive
figure. If more leave than come in, it is a negative figure.
➔ The population growth (or decline) of an area is natural change 1
net migration i.e.:
(birth rate 2 death rate) 1 (number of immigrants 2 the number
of emigrants)

Types of Migration

Migrations are either internal (within the country), or international. In LEDCs


and MEDCs the largest internal migrations are rural to urban, but in MEDCs
urban to rural migration is also important. Urban to urban and rural to rural
movements also occur.

10
The effects of migration and HIV/AIDS 3

Most migrants are young adults, especially males. Migrations can be


permanent, seasonal or daily. The movements are caused by push and
pull factors.
Push factors include: Pull factors include:
• unemployment • seeking employment
• low wages • higher wages than at home
• poor educational opportunities • better health care
• poor health care • better educational opportunities
• poor standards of living • better standards of living
• war, crime and persecution • to be near friends or family
• drought and famine • lower levels of crime
• natural disasters, such as floods • safety from conflict and
and volcanic eruptions. persecution
• to be near entertainment and
leisure facilities.
Most international migrations are to neighbouring countries and from
LEDCs to MEDCs. An example of this is the high level of migration from
Mexico (the country with the most emigrants in 2010) to the USA (the
country with the most immigrants – 43 million of its citizens were born in
another country).

BRUNEI

M A L AY S I A
Borneo
SINGAPORE
Su

Kalimantan
m
at
ra

Sulawesi

I N D O N E S I A Papua
N Ja
Jakarta

Java

Madura
Bali
Lombok

Indian Ocean
0 500
km AUSTRALIA

▲ Transmigration in Indonesia: an involuntary internal economic migration

The transmigration programme attempted to reduce the problems of


Indonesia's over and under-populated areas. Two and a half million people
have been moved from the over-populated islands to under-populated islands.

11
IGCSE Revision guide: Geography

The impact of immigration on the


population of the UK
There has been large-scale immigration to the UK since the mid-1990s,
especially of refugees and economic migrants from LEDCs and from
Eastern Europe where fertility rates are traditionally higher than in the UK.
The number of births to women born outside the UK has risen every year
since 1995. More than a quarter of the babies born in the UK in 2010 had
mothers who were born in other countries. (Poland was the main country
of origin for mothers and Pakistan of fathers.) The total UK population rose
from 57.8 million in 1991 to over 62 million in 2010. This rapid growth
has put health (especially maternity) services, housing provision and other
services under great strain in areas where a lot of immigrants have settled.

The impact of HIV/AIDS


4

Natural increase
3 expected without AIDS
Natural increase (%)

Actual natural
increase
1

0
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Census year
▲ The effect of AIDS on the natural population increase of Botswana.

HIV/AIDS spread rapidly in the 1980s, especially in southern African


countries. Many people had more than one sexual partner without using
protection and lacked knowledge about HIV/AIDS and its prevention.
Poverty encouraged prostitution and some people practised polygamy.
There was a lack of trained medical staff to cope with those needing
treatment. By 2002 Botswana’s death rate was seven times higher than
it would have been without AIDS, life expectancy had fallen from 72 to
34 and the population growth rate was only 1.1%, a third of what it was
before AIDS and much lower than in most African countries.
AIDS is slowly being brought under control; Botswana’s population
growth rate rose to 1.65% in 2011 as a result of the antiretroviral drug
programme and widespread advertising of the need to use condoms. AIDS
has left countries with a shortage of middle aged parents and workers,
many orphans and not enough care workers or funds to provide help for
all in need.

12
The effects of migration and HIV/AIDS 3

Practice questions
1. Make a list of the difficulties international migrants might face
a) before leaving their home country,
b) in their host (destination) country.

2. List (a) the benefits and (b) the possible problems of immigration for
the host country.

3. How might the source country or area benefit from emigration?

4. List the problems caused in rural areas by rural to urban migration.

5. Classify the examples of migration by the type of migration they


represent. Use any of the words in the box below that apply to
each example:

temporary permanent voluntary involuntary (forced) rural


urban internal international economic environmental commuting

Examples
a) From the countryside to live and work in a city.
b) From the countryside to work in a nearby city and return home
at night.
c) From Botswana to work for a number of years in the gold mines of
South Africa.
d) Retiring from work in a city to live in the countryside.
e) Moving during the ‘Arab Spring’ uprising in Libya in 2011 to
neighbouring countries.
f) Moving away from the area damaged by the Japanese tsunami
in 2011.
g) Maasai people moving within Kenya with their animal herds to find
pasture in wetter areas during the dry season.

6. Suggest two reasons why urban population pyramids show a lower


percentage of elderly people than rural population pyramids.

13
4 Settlement hierarchy and pattern
Hierarchy of settlements
Key Ideas
➔ A hierarchy of settlements is a list of ➔ Urban means associated with towns
settlements in order of population size and and cities.
the number and range of services provided. ➔ Rural means associated with the
➔ High order settlements are larger, fewer countryside and villages.
in number, spaced further apart, and with ➔ Services (functions) are anything that is
a wider range of services. provided in a settlement for the population,
➔ Low order settlements are smaller, more including goods that can be bought in shops
in number, more closely spaced and with a and other retail outlets.
small range of services.

Large Large Small


Capital city

Conurbation

Urban
City
Distance apart

Population

Number

Town

Village

Rural
Hamlet

Isolated dwelling
Small Small Large

02_01 IGCSE GeogSB


Barking Dog Art

Key
Village

0 10 Town
km City

14
02_02 IGCSE GeogSB
Barking Dog Art

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