2 WEO Update, July 2012

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Year over Year
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)

2010 2011 Projections Difference from April 2012 Q4 over Q4

WEO Projections
Estimates

2012 2013 2012 2013 2011

World Output 1/ 5.3 3.9 3.5 3.9 –0.1 –0.2 3.2 3.4 4.1
Advanced Economies 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.9 0.0 –0.2 1.2 1.4 2.2
United States 3.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 –0.1 –0.1 1.6 1.9 2.5
Euro Area 1.9 1.5 –0.3 0.7 0.0 –0.2 0.7 –0.2 1.2
Germany 3.6 3.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 –0.1 2.0 1.0 1.8
France 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.8 –0.1 –0.2 1.2 0.4 1.1
Italy 1.8 0.4 –1.9 –0.3 0.0 0.0 –0.5 –1.9 0.4
Spain –0.1 0.7 –1.5 –0.6 0.4 –0.7 0.3 –2.3 0.6
Japan 4.4 –0.7 2.4 1.5 0.4 –0.2 –0.5 1.9 2.2
United Kingdom 2.1 0.7 0.2 1.4 –0.6 –0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2
Canada 3.2 2.4 2.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 2.1 2.1
Other Advanced Economies 2/ 5.8 3.2 2.4 3.4 –0.2 –0.1 2.5 3.2 3.3
Newly Industrialized Asian Economies 8.5 4.0 2.7 4.2 –0.6 0.0 3.0 4.4 3.6

Emerging and Developing Economies 3/ 7.5 6.2 5.6 5.9 –0.1 –0.2 5.8 5.9 6.5
Central and Eastern Europe 4.5 5.3 1.9 2.8 0.0 –0.1 3.8 1.5 3.6
Commonwealth of Independent States 4.8 4.9 4.1 4.1 0.0 –0.1 4.4 3.1 4.5
Russia 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.9 0.0 –0.1 4.6 2.7 4.8
Excluding Russia 6.0 6.2 4.5 4.5 –0.1 –0.1 ... ... ...
Developing Asia 9.7 7.8 7.1 7.5 –0.3 –0.4 7.2 7.7 7.6
China 10.4 9.2 8.0 8.5 –0.2 –0.3 8.9 8.4 8.4
India 10.8 7.1 6.1 6.5 –0.7 –0.7 6.2 6.4 6.4
ASEAN-5 4/ 7.0 4.5 5.4 6.1 0.0 –0.1 2.6 7.5 6.4
Latin America and the Caribbean 6.2 4.5 3.4 4.2 –0.3 0.1 3.6 3.5 5.1
Brazil 7.5 2.7 2.5 4.6 –0.6 0.5 1.4 4.2 4.0
Mexico 5.6 3.9 3.9 3.6 0.3 0.0 3.9 3.4 4.2
Middle East and North Africa 5.0 3.5 5.5 3.7 1.3 0.0 ... ... ...
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.3 –0.1 0.0 ... ... ...
South Africa 2.9 3.1 2.6 3.3 –0.1 –0.1 2.6 2.8 3.7

Memorandum
European Union 2.0 1.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 –0.3 0.8 0.1 1.5
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 4.2 2.8 2.7 3.2 0.0 –0.2 2.3 2.5 3.4

World Trade Volume (goods and services) 12.8 5.9 3.8 5.1 –0.3 –0.5 ... ... ...
Imports
Advanced Economies 11.5 4.4 1.9 4.2 0.0 0.1 ... ... ...
Emerging and Developing Economies 15.3 8.8 7.8 7.0 –0.6 –1.1 ... ... ...
Exports
Advanced Economies 12.2 5.4 2.3 4.3 0.0 –0.3 ... ... ...
Emerging and Developing Economies 14.4 6.6 5.7 6.2 –0.9 –1.0 ... ... ...

Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)

Oil 5/ 27.9 31.6 –2.1 –7.5 –12.4 –3.4 20.8 –7.7 –2.1
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights) 26.3 17.8 –12.0 –4.3 –1.7 –2.2 –6.4 –3.9 –2.5

Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 1.5 2.7 2.0 1.6 0.1 –0.1 2.8 1.8 1.7
Emerging and Developing Economies 3/ 6.1 7.2 6.3 5.6 0.1 0.0 6.5 5.8 3.9

London Interbank Offered Rate (percent) 6/

On U.S. Dollar Deposits 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 ... ... ...
On Euro Deposits 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.6 –0.1 –0.2 ... ... ...
On Japanese Yen Deposits 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 –0.2 0.2 ... ... ...
On Euro Deposits 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.6 –0.1 –0.2 ... ... ...
On Japanese Yen Deposits 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 –0.2 0.2 ... ... ...

Note: These forecasts incorporate information received through Friday, July 6, 2012. Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during May 7–June 4,
2012. When economies are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
1/The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 percent of the world purchasing-power-parity weights.
2/Excludes the G7 and euro area countries.
3/The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging and developing economies.
4/Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
5/Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $104.01 in 2011; the assumed price based on futures markets is $101.80 in 2012 and $94.16 in 2013.
6/Six-month rate for the United States and Japan. Three-month rate for the euro area.
te, July 2012

Q4 over Q4

Projections

2012 2013

3.4 4.1
1.4 2.2
1.9 2.5
–0.2 1.2
1.0 1.8
0.4 1.1
–1.9 0.4
–2.3 0.6
1.9 2.2
0.8 1.2
2.1 2.1
3.2 3.3
4.4 3.6

5.9 6.5
1.5 3.6
3.1 4.5
2.7 4.8
... ...
7.7 7.6
8.4 8.4
6.4 6.4
7.5 6.4
3.5 5.1
4.2 4.0
3.4 4.2
... ...
... ...
2.8 3.7

0.1 1.5
2.5 3.4

... ...

... ...
... ...

... ...
... ...

–7.7 –2.1
–3.9 –2.5

1.8 1.7
5.8 3.9

... ...
... ...
... ...
 ... ...
... ...

une 4,

futures markets is $101.80 in 2012 and $94.16 in 2013.

2 WEO Update, July 2013
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)

Year over Year

2011 2012 Projections Difference from April Q4 over Q4
2013 WEO Published
Estimates

2013 2014 2013 2014 2012

World Output 1/ 3.9 3.1 3.1 3.8 –0.2 –0.2 2.6 3.5 3.7
Advanced Economies 1.7 1.2 1.2 2.1 –0.1 –0.2 0.7 1.8 2.2
United States 1.8 2.2 1.7 2.7 –0.2 –0.2 1.7 2.0 3.1
Euro Area 1.5 –0.6 –0.6 0.9 –0.2 –0.1 –1.0 0.3 1.1
Germany 3.1 0.9 0.3 1.3 –0.3 –0.1 0.3 1.1 1.2
France 2.0 0.0 –0.2 0.8 –0.1 0.0 –0.3 0.5 0.6
Italy 0.4 –2.4 –1.8 0.7 –0.3 0.2 –2.8 –0.9 1.4
Spain 0.4 –1.4 –1.6 0.0 0.0 –0.7 –1.9 –0.7 0.0
Japan –0.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 –0.3 0.4 3.5 0.2
United Kingdom 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7
Canada 2.5 1.7 1.7 2.2 0.2 –0.2 1.0 2.0 2.4
Other Advanced Economies 2/ 3.3 1.8 2.3 3.3 –0.1 –0.1 2.0 3.0 3.2
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3/ 6.2 4.9 5.0 5.4 –0.3 –0.3 5.0 5.6 5.6
Central and Eastern Europe 5.4 1.4 2.2 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.5
Commonwealth of Independent States 4.8 3.4 2.8 3.6 –0.6 –0.4 1.3 3.3 2.9
Russia 4.3 3.4 2.5 3.3 –0.9 –0.5 2.0 3.6 2.5
Excluding Russia 6.1 3.3 3.5 4.3 0.0 –0.3 ...... ...
Developing Asia 7.8 6.5 6.9 7.0 –0.3 –0.3 6.9 7.0 7.0
China 9.3 7.8 7.8 7.7 –0.3 –0.6 7.9 7.9 7.6
India 4/ 6.3 3.2 5.6 6.3 –0.2 –0.1 3.0 6.0 6.6
ASEAN-5 5/ 4.5 6.1 5.6 5.7 –0.3 0.2 9.1 5.5 5.1
Latin America and the Caribbean 4.6 3.0 3.0 3.4 –0.4 –0.5 2.8 2.9 3.5
Brazil 2.7 0.9 2.5 3.2 –0.5 –0.8 1.4 2.6 3.5
Mexico 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.2 –0.5 –0.2 3.3 3.6 2.4
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 3.9 4.4 3.1 3.7 –0.1 0.0 ...... ...
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.4 4.9 5.1 5.9 –0.4 –0.2 ...... ...
South Africa 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.9 –0.8 –0.4 2.3 2.3 3.0
Memorandum
European Union 1.7 –0.2 –0.1 1.2 –0.1 –0.1 –0.6 0.7 1.3
Middle East and North Africa 4.0 4.5 3.0 3.7 –0.1 0.1 ...... ...
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.9 2.4 2.4 3.2 –0.1 –0.2 1.8 2.8 3.1
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6.0 2.5 3.1 5.4 –0.5 0.1 ...... ...
Imports
Advanced Economies 4.7 1.1 1.4 4.3 –0.8 0.1 ...... ...
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 8.7 5.0 6.0 7.3 –0.2 0.0 ...... ...
Exports
Advanced Economies 5.6 2.0 2.4 4.7 –0.4 0.2 ...... ...
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 6.4 3.6 4.3 6.3 –0.5 –0.2 ...... ...
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 6/ 31.6 1.0 –4.7 –4.7 –2.4 0.2 –1.2 –4.1 –3.8
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights) 17.9 –9.9 –1.8 –4.3 –0.9 0.0 1.2 –4.5 –2.3
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.9 –0.1 0.0 1.8 1.6 2.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3/ 7.1 6.1 6.0 5.5 0.1 –0.1 5.2 5.4 4.9
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent) 7/
On U.S. Dollar Deposits 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.1 ...... ...
On Euro Deposits 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.0 –0.1 ...... ...
On Japanese Yen Deposits 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 ...... ...
 On U.S. Dollar Deposits 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.1 ...... ...
On Euro Deposits 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.0 –0.1 ...... ...
On Japanese Yen Deposits 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 ...... ...

Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during May 6–June 3, 2013. When economies are not listed alphabetically,
they are ordered on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
1/ The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 percent of the world purchasing-power-parity weights.
2/ Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
3/ The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies.
4/ For India, all data and forecasts (quarterly and annual) are presented on a fiscal year basis in the July 2013 WEO, whereas data were presented on a calendar year basis in the April 2013 WEO. However, the
difference between the April 2013 WEO and current 2013–14 growth projections for India was adjusted to be on a fiscal year basis.
5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
6/ Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $105.01 in 2012;
the assumed price based on futures markets is $100.09 in 2013 and $95.36 in 2014.
7/ Six-month rate for the United States and Japan. Three-month rate for the euro area.
, July 2013

Q4 over Q4

Projections

2013 2014

3.5 3.7
1.8 2.2
2.0 3.1
0.3 1.1
1.1 1.2
0.5 0.6
–0.9 1.4
–0.7 0.0
3.5 0.2
1.1 1.7
2.0 2.4
3.0 3.2
5.6 5.6
3.6 2.5
3.3 2.9
3.6 2.5
... ...
7.0 7.0
7.9 7.6
6.0 6.6
5.5 5.1
2.9 3.5
2.6 3.5
3.6 2.4
... ...
... ...
2.3 3.0

0.7 1.3
... ...
2.8 3.1
... ...

... ...
... ...

... ...
... ...

–4.1 –3.8
–4.5 –2.3

1.6 2.1
5.4 4.9

... ...
... ...
... ...
 ... ...
... ...
... ...

ically,

year basis in the April 2013 WEO. However, the

12;
2 WEO Update, January 2014
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Year over Year
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)

2012 2013 Projections Difference from October Q4 over Q4

2013 WEO Published
Estimates Projections

2014 2015 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015

World Output 1/ 3.1 3.0 3.7 3.9 0.1 0.0 3.3 3.6 3.8
Advanced Economies 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 0.2 –0.2 2.0 2.1 2.3
United States 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.0 0.2 –0.4 2.5 2.8 3.0
Euro Area –0.7 –0.4 1.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5
Germany 0.9 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.1 1.6 1.3 1.4
France 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.6
Italy –2.5 –1.8 0.6 1.1 –0.1 0.1 –0.8 1.0 1.2
Spain –1.6 –1.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 –0.2 0.7 0.9
Japan 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.4 –0.2 3.1 0.9 0.6
United Kingdom 0.3 1.7 2.4 2.2 0.6 0.2 2.3 2.7 1.8
Canada 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.4 0.1 –0.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
Other Advanced Economies 1.9 2.2 3.0 3.2 –0.1 –0.1 2.7 2.9 3.4
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 1/ 4.9 4.7 5.1 5.4 0.0 0.1 4.8 5.4 5.6
Central and Eastern Europe 1.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 0.1 –0.2 2.9 3.7 2.8
Commonwealth of Independent States 3.4 2.1 2.6 3.1 –0.8 –0.7 2.2 1.4 3.1
Russia 3.4 1.5 2.0 2.5 –1.0 –1.0 1.9 1.5 3.2
Excluding Russia 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.3 –0.1 –0.1 ... ... ...
Developing Asia 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 0.2 0.2 6.4 6.8 7.0
China 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 0.3 0.2 7.8 7.6 7.3
India 2/ 3.2 4.4 5.4 6.4 0.2 0.1 4.6 5.5 7.0
ASEAN-5 3/ 6.2 5.0 5.1 5.6 –0.3 0.0 4.0 5.6 5.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.3 –0.1 –0.2 1.6 3.4 2.8
Brazil 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.8 –0.2 –0.4 1.9 2.6 3.0
Mexico 3.7 1.2 3.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.2 3.3
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 4.1 2.4 3.3 4.8 –0.3 0.7 ... ... ...
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.8 5.1 6.1 5.8 0.1 0.1 ... ... ...
South Africa 2.5 1.8 2.8 3.3 –0.1 0.0 1.9 3.2 3.3
Memorandum
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.5 2.4 3.1 3.4 0.1 –0.1 2.8 3.0 3.2
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 2.7 2.7 4.5 5.2 –0.5 –0.3 ...... ...
Imports (goods and services)
Advanced Economies 1.0 1.4 3.4 4.1 –0.7 –0.5 ...... ...
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 0.0 –0.2 ...... ...
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 4/ 1.0 –0.9 –0.3 –5.2 2.8 0.8 2.7 –2.7 –5.3
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights) –10.0 –1.5 –6.1 –2.4 –2.0 –0.3 –3.8 –4.6 –1.8
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 –0.1 0.0 1.3 1.9 1.7
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 1/ 6.0 6.1 5.6 5.3 0.0 0.1 5.7 5.1 4.8
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent)
On U.S. Dollar Deposits (6 month) 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 –0.2 –0.3 ...... ...
On Euro Deposits (3 month) 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 –0.2 –0.4 ...... ...
On Japanese Yen Deposits (6 month) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 –0.2 ...... ...
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 11–December 9, 2013. When economies are not listed
alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
1/ The quarterly data and projections account for 90 percent of the world ppp weights and around 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies.
2/ For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6, 5.4, and 6.4 percent for 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively.
3/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
4/ Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $104.11 in 2013;
the assumed price based on futures markets is $103.84 in 2014 and $98.47 in 2015.

In Japan, growth is now expected to slow more the cost of capital. Growth is thus expected to moderate
gradually compared with October 2013 WEO projections. slightly to around 7½ percent in 2014–15. Growth in India
Temporary fiscal stimulus should partly offset the drag from the picked up after a favorable monsoon season and higher expo
consumption tax increase in early 2014. As a result, annual growth and is expected to firm further on stronger structural
growth is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 1.7 percent in policies supporting investment. Many other emerging marke
2014, given carryover effects, before moderating to 1 percent in developing economies have started to benefit from stronger
2015. external demand in advanced economies and China. In
many, however, domestic demand has remained weaker than
Overall, growth in emerging market and developing economies expected. This reflects to varying degrees, tighter financial
is expected to increase to 5.1 percent in conditions and policy stances since mid-2013, as well as pol
2014 and to 5.4 percent in 2015. Growth in China rebounded or political uncertainty and
strongly in the second half of 2013, due largely to an acceleration bottlenecks, with the latter weighing on investment in partic
in investment. This surge is As a result, growth in 2013 or 2014 has been
expected to be temporary, in part because of policy measures revised downward compared to the October 2013 WEO
aimed at slowing credit growth and raising forecasts, including in Brazil and Russia. Downward
te, January 2014
 5.4, and 6.4 percent for 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively.

h is thus expected to moderate

ent in 2014–15. Growth in India
e monsoon season and higher export
firm further on stronger structural
ment. Many other emerging market and
ve started to benefit from stronger
ced economies and China. In
demand has remained weaker than
varying degrees, tighter financial
ces since mid-2013, as well as policy
d
weighing on investment in particular.
3 or 2014 has been
ed to the October 2013 WEO
zil and Russia. Downward
4 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
WEO Update, July 2015
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Year over Year
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)

2013 2014 Projections Difference from April Q4 over Q4

2015
WEO Projections 1/
2015 2016 2015 2016 2014

World Output 2/ 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.8 –0.2 0.0 3.3 3.3 3.7
Advanced Economies 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 –0.3 0.0 1.7 2.2 2.3
United States 2.2 2.4 2.5 3.0 –0.6 –0.1 2.4 2.4 2.8
Euro Area 3/ –0.4 0.8 1.5 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.6
Germany 0.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 1.5
France 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 –0.0 1.7 1.3
Italy –1.7 –0.4 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.1 –0.4 1.2 1.3
Spain –1.2 1.4 3.1 2.5 0.6 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.2
Japan 1.6 –0.1 0.8 1.2 –0.2 0.0 –0.9 1.7 1.3
United Kingdom 1.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 –0.3 –0.1 3.2 2.2 2.1
Canada 2.0 2.4 1.5 2.1 –0.7 0.1 2.5 1.0 2.3
Other Advanced Economies 4/ 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.1 –0.1 0.0 2.6 2.8 3.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5/ 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.7 –0.1 0.0 4.7 4.3 5.0
Commonwealth of Independent States 2.2 1.0 –2.2 1.2 0.4 0.9 –1.0 –3.5 1.5
Russia 1.3 0.6 –3.4 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.4 –4.8 1.8
Excluding Russia 4.2 1.9 0.7 3.3 0.3 0.1 ... ... ...
Emerging and Developing Asia 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.6 6.4
China 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.3 0.0 0.0 7.3 6.8 6.3
India 6/ 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.5 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.3 7.5
ASEAN-5 7/ 5.1 4.6 4.7 5.1 –0.5 –0.2 4.8 4.7 5.2
Emerging and Developing Europe 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 0.0 –0.3 2.6 3.5 3.0
Latin America and the Caribbean 2.9 1.3 0.5 1.7 –0.4 –0.3 1.2 –0.1 2.1
Brazil 2.7 0.1 –1.5 0.7 –0.5 –0.3 –0.2 –2.1 2.3
Mexico 1.4 2.1 2.4 3.0 –0.6 –0.3 2.6 2.5 3.0
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.8 –0.3 0.0 ... ... ...
Saudi Arabia 2.7 3.5 2.8 2.4 –0.2 –0.3 1.6 2.7 2.6
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.2 5.0 4.4 5.1 –0.1 0.0 ... ... ...
Nigeria 5.4 6.3 4.5 5.0 –0.3 0.0 ... ... ...
South Africa 2.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.5 2.4
Memorandum
Low-Income Developing Countries 6.1 6.0 5.1 6.2 –0.4 0.2 ... ... ...
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.2 –0.3 0.0 2.5 2.6 3.1
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 3.3 3.2 4.1 4.4 0.4 –0.3 ... ... ...
Imports
Advanced Economies 2.1 3.3 4.5 4.5 1.2 0.2 ... ... ...
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5.2 3.4 3.6 4.7 0.1 –0.8 ... ... ...
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 8/ –0.9 –7.5 –38.8 9.1 0.8 –3.8 –28.7 –16.8 5.5
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights) –1.2 – –15.6 –1.7 –1.5 –0.7 –7.5 –12.6 0.7
4.0
Consumer Prices 0.0 1.2 –0.4 –0.2 1.0 0.2 1.5
Advanced Economies 1.4 1.4 5.5 4.8 0.1 0.0 5.0 6.0 4.7
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5/ 5.9
5.1 0.4 1.2 –0.3 –0.7 ... ... ...
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ... ... ...
On U.S. Dollar Deposits (six month) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 –0.1 ... ... ...
On Euro Deposits (three month) 0.2 0.2
On Japanese Yen Deposits (six month) 0.2 0.2
 4.0
Consumer Prices 0.0 1.2 –0.4 –0.2 1.0 0.2 1.5
Advanced Economies 1.4 1.4 5.5 4.8 0.1 0.0 5.0 6.0 4.7
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5/ 5.9
5.1 0.4 1.2 –0.3 –0.7 ... ... ...
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ... ... ...
On U.S. Dollar Deposits (six month) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 –0.1 ... ... ...
On Euro Deposits (three month) 0.2 0.2
On Japanese Yen Deposits (six month) 0.2 0.2

Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during May 4–June 1, 2015. Economies are listed on the basis of economic
size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. Lithuania is now included in the euro area. Lithuania w as previously included in the other advanced economies.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures for both the current and April 2015 WEO forecasts.
2/ The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 percent of the w orld purchasing-pow er-parity w eights.
3/ Includes Lithuania, w hich joined the euro area in January 2015.
4/ Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
5/ The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies.
6/ For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onw ard is based on GDP at market prices w ith FY2011/12 as a base year.
7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
8/ Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel w as $96.25 in 2014; the assumed price
based on futures markets is $58.87 in 2015 and $64.22 in 2016.
ENTIAL

Q4 over Q4

Projections

2015 2016

3.3 3.7
2.2 2.3
2.4 2.8
1.8 1.6
1.8 1.5
1.7 1.3
1.2 1.3
3.3 2.2
1.7 1.3
2.2 2.1
1.0 2.3
2.8 3.1
4.3 5.0
–3.5 1.5
–4.8 1.8
... ...
6.6 6.4
6.8 6.3
7.3 7.5
4.7 5.2
3.5 3.0
–0.1 2.1
–2.1 2.3
2.5 3.0
... ...
2.7 2.6
... ...
... ...
1.5 2.4

... ...
2.6 3.1
... ...

... ...
... ...

–16.8 5.5
–12.6 0.7

0.2 1.5
6.0 4.7

... ...
... ...
... ...
 0.2 1.5
6.0 4.7

... ...
... ...
... ...

on the basis of economic

he other advanced economies.

11/12 as a base year.

w as $96.25 in 2014; the assumed price

9
WEO Update, July 2016
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Year over Year
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)

2014 2015 Projections Difference from April Q4 over Q4 2/

2016
WEO Projections 1/

2016 2017 2016 2017 2015

World Output 3.4 3.1 3.4 –0.1 –0.1 3.0 3.2 3.5
3.1 1.8 1.8 –0.1 –0.2 1.8 1.8 1.9
Advanced Economies 1.9 2.2 2.5 –0.2 0.0 2.0 2.5 2.3
1.9 1.6 1.4 0.1 –0.2 1.7 1.4 1.5
United States 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.1 –0.4 1.3 1.5 1.3
2.4 1.5 1.2 0.4 –0.1 1.4 1.3 1.4
Euro Area 0.9 0.9 1.0 –0.1 –0.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
1.7 2.6 2.1 0.0 –0.2 3.5 1.8 2.5
Germany 1.6 0.3 0.1 –0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2
1.5 1.7 1.3 –0.2 –0.9 1.8 1.2 1.5
France 0.6 1.4 2.1 –0.1 0.2 0.3 1.8 2.2
1.3 2.0 2.3 –0.1 –0.1 2.2 2.0 2.6
Italy –0.3 4.1 4.6 0.0 0.0 4.1 4.4 4.9
0.8 –0.6 1.5 0.5 0.2 –3.4 –0.3 1.8
Spain 1.4 –1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 –4.0 –0.3 1.8
3.2 1.0 2.5 0.1 0.2 ...... ...
Japan 0.0 6.4 6.3 0.0 0.0 6.8 6.3 6.3
0.5 6.6 6.2 0.1 0.0 6.8 6.5 6.1
United Kingdom 3.1 7.4 7.4 –0.1 –0.1 8.1 7.4 7.4
2.2 4.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.5 5.3
Canada 2.5 3.5 3.2 0.0 –0.1 4.1 3.3 3.0
1.1 –0.4 1.6 0.1 0.1 –1.4 0.0 2.1
Other Advanced Economies 3/ 2.8 –3.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 –5.9 –1.2 1.1
2.0 2.5 2.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 2.4 2.8
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.6 3.4 3.3 0.3 –0.2 ...... ...
4.0 1.2 2.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.0 2.4
Commonwealth of Independent States 1.1 1.6 3.3 –1.4 –0.7 ...... ...
–2.8 –1.8 1.1 –4.1 –2.4 ...... ...
Russia 0.7 0.1 1.0 –0.5 –0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1
–3.7
Excluding Russia 1.9 3.8 5.1 –0.9 –0.4 ...... ...
–0.6 2.5 2.8 0.0 –0.1 2.3 2.6 2.8
Emerging and Developing Asia 6.8 2.7 3.9 –0.4 0.1 ...... ...
6.6 2.6 3.9 –0.4 0.1 ...... ...
China 7.3 2.9 3.9 –0.5 0.1 ...... ...
6.9
India 4/ 7.2 –15.5 16.4 16.1 –1.5 –43.4 13.7 5.2
7.6 –3.8 –0.6 5.6 0.1 –19.1 5.0 –2.7
ASEAN-5 5/ 4.6
4.8 0.7 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7
Emerging and Developing Europe 2.8 4.6 4.4 0.1 0.2 4.6 4.3 4.0
3.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.0 –0.3 ...... ...
0.0 –0.3 –0.4 0.0 0.0 ...... ...
Brazil 0.1 –0.0 –0.2 0.1 0.1 ...... ...
–3.8
Mexico 2.2
2.5
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 2.7
2.3
Saudi Arabia 3.6
3.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1
3.3
Nigeria 6.3
2.7
South Africa 1.6
1.3
Memorandum
Low-Income Developing Countries 6.0
4.5
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.7
2.5
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6/ 3.7
2.6
Advanced Economies 3.6
3.8
 4.8 0.7 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7
Emerging and Developing Europe 2.8 4.6 4.4 0.1 0.2 4.6 4.3 4.0
3.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.0 –0.3 ...... ...
0.0 –0.3 –0.4 0.0 0.0 ...... ...
Brazil 0.1 –0.0 –0.2 0.1 0.1 ...... ...
–3.8
Mexico 2.2
2.5
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 2.7
2.3
Saudi Arabia 3.6
3.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1
3.3
Nigeria 6.3
2.7
South Africa 1.6
1.3
Memorandum
Low-Income Developing Countries 6.0
4.5
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.7
2.5
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6/ 3.7
2.6
Advanced Economies 3.6
3.8
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.9
0.6
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 7/ –7.5
–47.2
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights) –4.0
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to–17.5remain constant at the levels prevailing during June 24-June 28, 2016. Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The
aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures forConsumer Prices
both the current and April 2016 World Economic Outlook forecasts.
Advanced
2/ Economies
Countries included 1.4 90 percent of world GDP at purchasing power parities.
in the calculation of quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately
0.3 United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
3/ Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan,
4/ For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year.
Emerging
5/ Market Philippines,
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Developing
Thailand, Economies
Vietnam. 8/ 4.7
6/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import4.7 volumes (goods and services).
London
7/ Simple average of prices of U.K. Interbank Offered
Brent, Dubai Fateh, Rate
and West (percent)
Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $50.79 in 2015; the assumed price based on futures markets (as
2016) is $42.9 in 2016 and $50.0 in 2017.
On U.S. Dollar Deposits (six
8/ Excludes Argentina and Venezuela. month) 0.3
0.5
On Euro Deposits (three month) 0.2
0.0
On Japanese Yen Deposits (six month) 0.2
0.1
Q4 over Q4 2/
Projections

2016 2017
3.2 3.5
1.8 1.9
2.5 2.3
1.4 1.5
1.5 1.3
1.3 1.4
1.0 1.0
1.8 2.5
0.6 0.2
1.2 1.5
1.8 2.2
2.0 2.6
4.4 4.9
–0.3 1.8
–0.3 1.8
... ...
6.3 6.3
6.5 6.1
7.4 7.4
4.5 5.3
3.3 3.0
0.0 2.1
–1.2 1.1
2.4 2.8
... ...
1.0 2.4
... ...
... ...
0.4 1.1

... ...
2.6 2.8
... ...
... ...
... ...

13.7 5.2
5.0 –2.7

1.0 1.7
4.3 4.0

... ...
... ...
... ...
 1.0 1.7
4.3 4.0

... ...
... ...
... ...

e. The

med price based on futures markets (as of June 28,

 7 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
WEO Update, July 2017

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

(Percent change unless noted otherwise)
Year over Year
Difference from April 2017 Q4 over Q4 2/
Estimate Projections WEO Projections 1/ Estimate Projections
2015 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
World Output 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.5 3.7
Advanced Econ 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 0.0 -0.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
United States 2.6 1.6 2.1 2.1 -0.2 -0.4 2.0 2.0 2.3
Euro Area 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 0.2 0.1 1.8 1.9 1.7
Germany 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.1 1.8 1.9 1.5
France 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.7 1.5
Italy 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Spain 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.3 3.0 3.0 2.1
Japan 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.2 0.5
United Kingdom 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 -0.3 0.0 1.9 1.4 1.4
Canada 0.9 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.6 -0.1 2.0 2.3 2.0
Other Advanced 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.1 2.7
Emerging Marke 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 4.9 5.2
Commonwealth of -2.2 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.0
Russia -2.8 -0.2 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8
Excluding Russia -0.5 1.8 2.5 3.5 0.0 0.0
Emerging and Dev 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 0.1 0.1 6.3 6.6 6.5
China 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 0.1 0.2 6.8 6.4 6.4
India 4/ 8.0 7.1 7.2 7.7 0.0 0.0 6.0 8.0 7.6
ASEAN-5 5/ 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 5.2 5.2
Emerging and De 4.7 3.0 3.5 3.2 0.5 -0.1 3.3 2.0 4.2
Latin America an 0.1 -1.0 1.0 1.9 -0.1 -0.1 -1.3 1.6 2.1
Brazil -3.8 -3.6 0.3 1.3 0.1 -0.4 -2.5 1.5 1.7
Mexico 2.6 2.3 1.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 0.9 3.2
Middle East, Nort 2.7 5.0 2.6 3.3 0.0 -0.1
Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 0.1 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 2.2 0.6 1.4
Sub-Saharan Afri 3.4 1.3 2.7 3.5 0.1 0.0
Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 0.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
South Africa 1.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.2 -0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1
Memorandum
Low-Income Devel 4.6 3.6 4.6 5.2 -0.1 -0.1
World Growth Ba 2.7 2.5 2.9 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.8 3.0
World Trade Vol 2.6 2.3 4.0 3.9 0.2 0.0
Advanced Econo 4.0 2.3 3.9 3.5 0.2 -0.1
Emerging Market 0.3 2.2 4.1 4.6 0.1 0.3
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 7/ -47.2 -15.7 21.2 0.1 -7.7 0.4 16.2 6.2 -0.8
Nonfuel (average -17.5 -1.8 5.4 -1.4 -3.1 -0.1 9.9 0.1 0.1
Consumer Prices
Advanced Econo 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 1.2 1.7 2.0
Emerging Market 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.6 -0.2 0.2 3.7 4.0 3.9
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent)
On U.S. Dollar De 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 -0.1 -0.6
On Euro Deposits 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0
On Japanese Yen 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
 Difference from October 2017 Q4
Estimate Projections WEO Projections 1/
Estimate
2017
2016 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019
World Output 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 0.2 0.2 3.9
Advanced Economies 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 0.3 0.4 2.4
United States 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.6 2.5
Euro Area 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 0.3 0.3 2.4
Germany 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.5 2.8
France 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 2.2
Italy 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.2 1.5
Spain 3.3 3.1 2.4 2.1 –0.1 0.1 3.0
Japan 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.0
United Kingdom 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 0.0 –0.1 1.3
Canada 1.4 3.0 2.3 2.0 0.2 0.3 3.0
Other Advanced Economies 3/ 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.6 0.1 0.1 2.7
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
Commonwealth of Independent States 0.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
Russia –0.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 2.3
Excluding Russia 1.9 3.1 3.4 3.5 0.1 0.0 ...
Emerging and Developing Asia 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 0.0 0.1 6.8
China 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.4 0.1 0.1 6.7
India 4/ 7.1 6.7 7.4 7.8 0.0 0.0 7.9
ASEAN-5 5/ 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.3 0.1 0.0 5.4
Emerging and Developing Europe 3.2 5.2 4.0 3.8 0.5 0.5 4.0
Latin America and the Caribbean –0.7 1.3 1.9 2.6 0.0 0.2 2.2
Brazil –3.5 1.1 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 2.5
Mexico 2.9 2.0 2.3 3.0 0.4 0.7 1.4
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 4.9 2.5 3.6 3.5 0.1 0.0 ...
Saudi Arabia 1.7 –0.7 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.6 –1.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.4 2.7 3.3 3.5 –0.1 0.1 ...
Nigeria –1.6 0.8 2.1 1.9 0.2 0.2 ...
South Africa 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 –0.2 –0.7 1.2
Memorandum
Low-Income Developing Countries 3.6 4.7 5.2 5.3 0.0 0.1 ...
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 0.2 0.2 3.3
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6/ 2.5 4.7 4.6 4.4 0.6 0.5 ...
Advanced Economies 2.6 4.1 4.3 4.2 0.6 0.7 ...
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 2.3 5.9 5.1 4.8 0.4 0.2 ...
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 7/ –15.7 23.1 11.7 –4.3 11.9 –5.0 19.0
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights) –1.6 6.5 –0.5 1.0 –1.0 1.5 1.2
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 0.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 8/ 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.3 0.1 0.2 3.7
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent)
On U.S. Dollar Deposits (six month) 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.4 0.4 0.5 ...
On Euro Deposits (three month) –0.3 –0.3 –0.3 –0.1 0.0 –0.1 ...
On Japanese Yen Deposits (six month) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 –0.2 –0.1 ...
over Q4 2/

Projections
2018 2019
3.9

3.8
2.3

2.0
2.7

2.4
2.1

2.0
2.1

2.1
1.8

1.9
1.4

0.9
2.2

2.0
0.9

–0.3
1.5

1.5
2.2

1.9
2.5

2.9
5.3

5.3
2.1

1.7
1.9

1.6
. ...
6.5

6.5
.
6.5

6.4
7.4

. 7.8
5.4

5.3
4.8

3.7
2.3

2.6
2.2

2.0
2.9

2.8
. ...
2.5

2.2
.. ...
.. ...
.
0.5

1.1
.
.
.. ...
3.3

3.0
.
. ...
.. ...
.. ...
.
..
–0.9 . –3.9
1.2

. 1.0

2.1

2.1
3.9

3.6

. ...
. ...
.. ...
.
..
.
.