WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE, JANUARY 2024

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

(Percent change, unless noted otherwise)
Year ov er Year
Difference from October 2023 Q4 ov er Q4 2/
Estimate Projections WEO Projections 1/ Estimate Projections
2022 2023 2024 2025 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025
World Output 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.2 0.2 0.0 3.1 3.1 3.1
Advanced Economies 2.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.7
United States 1.9 2.5 2.1 1.7 0.6 –0.1 2.9 1.5 1.9
Euro Area 3.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 –0.3 –0.1 0.2 1.5 1.6
Germany 1.8 –0.3 0.5 1.6 –0.4 –0.4 –0.1 1.1 1.9
France 2.5 0.8 1.0 1.7 –0.3 –0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8
Italy 3.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.0
Spain 5.8 2.4 1.5 2.1 –0.2 0.0 1.5 1.8 2.1
Japan 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.8 –0.1 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.5
United Kingdom 4.3 0.5 0.6 1.6 0.0 –0.4 0.9 0.6 1.8
Canada 3.8 1.1 1.4 2.3 –0.2 –0.1 1.1 1.9 2.2
Other Adv anced Economies 3/ 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.5 –0.1 0.2 1.5 2.6 2.0
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 0.1 0.1 4.3 4.3 4.1
Emerging and Dev eloping Asia 4.5 5.4 5.2 4.8 0.4 –0.1 5.2 5.5 4.7
China 3.0 5.2 4.6 4.1 0.4 0.0 5.4 4.4 4.0
India 4/ 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.5 0.2 0.2 5.0 7.8 6.7
Emerging and Dev eloping Europe 1.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.1 2.0 2.9
Russia –1.2 3.0 2.6 1.1 1.5 0.1 4.4 1.4 1.0
Latin America and the Caribbean 4.2 2.5 1.9 2.5 –0.4 0.1 2.2 1.7 2.6
Brazil 3.0 3.1 1.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 2.6 1.4
Mex ico 3.9 3.4 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.4 1.9 1.4
Middle East and Central Asia 5.5 2.0 2.9 4.2 –0.5 0.3 ... ... ...
Saudi Arabia 8.7 –1.1 2.7 5.5 –1.3 1.3 –4.5 2.8 5.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.0 3.3 3.8 4.1 –0.2 0.0 ... ... ...
Nigeria 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.1 –0.1 0.0 2.7 3.3 2.9
South Africa 1.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 –0.8 –0.3 1.0 1.2 1.3
Memorandum
World Grow th Based on Market Ex change Rates 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 2.7 2.5 2.6
European Union 3.6 0.6 1.2 1.9 –0.3 –0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3
ASEAN-5 5/ 5.5 4.2 4.7 4.4 0.2 –0.1 4.1 5.2 3.5
Middle East and North Africa 5.6 2.0 2.9 4.2 –0.5 0.3 ... ... ...
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 4.3 4.1
Low -Income Dev eloping Countries 5.2 4.0 5.0 5.6 –0.1 0.0 ... ... ...
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6/ 5.2 0.4 3.3 3.6 –0.2 –0.1 ... ... ...
Adv anced Economies 6.1 0.3 2.6 3.2 –0.4 –0.1 ... ... ...
Emerging Market and Dev eloping Economies 3.7 0.6 4.5 4.4 0.2 0.0 ... ... ...
Commodity Prices
Oil 7/ 39.2 –16.0 –2.3 –4.8 –1.6 0.1 –2.8 –6.1 –4.9
Nonfuel (av erage based on w orld commodity import 7.9 –6.1 –0.9 –0.4 1.8 –0.3 –2.0 1.5 0.2
World Consumer Prices 8/ 8.7 6.8 5.8 4.4 0.0 –0.2 6.0 5.3 3.8
Adv anced Economies 9/ 7.3 4.6 2.6 2.0 –0.4 –0.2 3.1 2.3 2.0
Emerging Market and Dev eloping Economies 8/ 9.8 8.4 8.1 6.0 0.3 –0.2 8.4 7.7 5.2
No te: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain co nstant at the levels prevailing during Octo ber 30–No vember 27, 2023. Eco no mies are listed o n the basis o f
eco no mic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seaso nally adjusted. WEO = Wo rld Eco no mic Outlo o k .
1/ Difference based o n ro unded figures fo r the current and Octo ber 2023 WEO fo recasts. Co untries fo r which fo recasts have been updated relative to Octo ber 2023 WEO
fo recasts acco unt fo r appro ximately 90 percent o f wo rld GDP measured at purchasing-po wer-parity weights.
2/ Fo r Wo rld Output (Emerging M arket and Develo ping Eco no mies), the quarterly estimates and pro jectio ns acco unt fo r appro ximately 90 percent (80 percent) o f annual
wo rld (emerging market and develo ping eco no mies') o utput at purchasing-po wer-parity weights.
3/ Excludes the Gro up o f Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdo m, United States) and euro area co untries.
4/ Fo r India, data and pro jectio ns are presented o n a fiscal year (FY) basis, with FY 2022/23 (starting in A pril 2022) sho wn in the 2022 co lumn. India's gro wth pro jectio ns are
5.7 percent in 2024 and 6.8 percent in 2025 based o n calendar year.
5/ Indo nesia, M alaysia, P hilippines, Singapo re, Thailand.
6/ Simple average o f gro wth rates fo r expo rt and impo rt vo lumes (go o ds and services).
7/ Simple average o f prices o f UK B rent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude o il. The average assumed price o f o il in US do llars a barrel, based o n futures
markets (as o f No vember 29, 2023), is $ 79.10 in 2024 and $ 75.31in 2025.
8/ Excludes Venezuela.
9/ The assumed inflatio n rate fo r the euro area is 2.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, that fo r Japan is 2.7% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025, and that fo r the United States is 2.2% in 2024
and 1.9% in 2025.

6 International Monetary Fund | January 2024