TLRPAC Texas Statewide Voter Survey Memo

Opinion Research for Decision Making
in Politics and Public Affairs
________________________________________________________________________________
4131 Spicewood Springs Road Office: 512-345-9720

Suite O-2 [email protected]
Austin, TX 78759 [email protected]
TO: Interested parties

FR: Mike Baselice
RE: May 2018 Texas Voter Survey
NAME IDs
The survey we recently conducted in Texas indicates varied levels of name recognition among the
officeholders and candidates tested. At 55%, Greg Abbott has the highest positive image of the
individual names tested. Ted Cruz has a positive image of 50% with a negative image of 39% while
his Democratic opponent Beto O’Rourke is 28% positive / 13% negative. A plurality of voters (41%)
have never heard of Beto O’Rourke.
____________________________________________________________________________________________
I would like to read you the names of several individuals, groups and organizations. For each one, please tell me whether you
have heard of that person, group or organization, and if so, whether you have a positive or a negative impression of them. If
you do not recognize the name, just say so. Here is the first one... (Randomize Questions)
POSITIVE NEGATIVE No Never

Strong Smwht Total Smwht Strong Total Opinion heard of
Greg Abbott 34% 21% 55% 10% 16% 26% 15% 5%
The Texas Supreme Court 27% 28% 55% 11% 3% 14% 28% 4%
Ted Cruz 28% 22% 50% 11% 28% 39% 9% 2%
Donald Trump 33% 19% 52% 6% 38% 44% 4% 0%
Ken Paxton 15% 15% 31% 7% 13% 19% 22% 28%
Beto O’Rourke 16% 12% 28% 6% 7% 13% 18% 41%
Justin Nelson 4% 7% 11% 4% 1% 5% 22% 63%

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Ken Paxton is 31% positive / 19% negative while his opponent Justin Nelson is 11% positive / 5%
negative.
Donald Trump’s 52% positive image is driven by Republican voters (84% pos / 12% neg) whereas his
39% negative image is driven by Democratic voters (13% pos / 84% neg).
BALLOTS
Ted Cruz (48%) holds a 12-point lead over Beto O’Rourke (36%) in the US Senate race, and Ken Paxton
(45%) holds a 12-point lead over Justin Nelson (33%) in the Attorney General race. These double-digit
leads come from a combination of a Republican-leaning electorate and the current advantage GOP
officeholders enjoy among their base voters relative to that of their Democratic opponents.
 46% of the respondents usually vote Republican in general elections (50% w/leaners)
versus 37% who usually vote Democratic (41% w/leaners).
 83% of the base Republican voters are supporting Cruz for US Senate while 76% of the
base Democratic voters are supporting O’Rourke.
 80% of the base Republican voters are supporting Paxton for AG while 74% of the base
Democratic voters are supporting Nelson.
____________________________________________________________________________________________
If the election for United States Senate was held today, and you had to make a choice, for which one of the following candidates
would you vote? (Randomize choices)
48% Ted Cruz, the Republican

36% Beto O’Rourke, the Democrat
3% Neal Dikeman, the Libertarian
1% Other names (vol)
1% Would not vote (vol)
11% Undecided / refused (vol)
____________________________________________________________________________________________
If the election for Texas Attorney General was held today, and you had to make a choice, for which one of the following
candidates would you vote? (Randomize choices)
45% Ken Paxton, the Republican

33% Justin Nelson, the Democrat
6% Michael Ray Harris, the Libertarian
0% Other names (vol)
1% Would not vote (vol)
15% Undecided / refused (vol)
____________________________________________________________________________________________
On a generic ballot for a judge on the state court of appeals in one’s area, 47% would vote for the
Republican candidate and 38% would support the Democratic candidate.
GORSUCH APPOINTMENT
By an 8-to-5 ratio, Texas voters approve (41%) over disapprove (25%) of the appointment of Neil
Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court. Republican voters overwhelmingly approve of the appointment
(64% approve / 6% disapprove). Democrats disapprove (48%) more them they approve (14%).
How the survey was conducted: The information in this memo is from a survey conducted May 21-28,
2018 among N=601 randomly selected voters in Texas. Interviews were conducted by landline (50%)
and cell phone (50%). The survey demographics reflect an average of the two most recent general
elections. The margin of error to these results is +/- 4.1% at the 0.95 confidence level. All percentages
are rounded to the nearest whole percent. Baselice & Associates, Inc Project #18607.

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Opinion Research for Decision Making

in Politics and Public Affairs

4131 Spicewood Springs Road Office: 512-345-9720

TO: Interested parties

POSITIVE NEGATIVE No Never

Greg Abbott 34% 21% 55% 10% 16% 26% 15% 5%

Ted Cruz 28% 22% 50% 11% 28% 39% 9% 2%

Donald Trump 33% 19% 52% 6% 38% 44% 4% 0%

Ken Paxton 15% 15% 31% 7% 13% 19% 22% 28%

Beto O’Rourke 16% 12% 28% 6% 7% 13% 18% 41%

Justin Nelson 4% 7% 11% 4% 1% 5% 22% 63%

48% Ted Cruz, the Republican

45% Ken Paxton, the Republican

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