Shriram City Union Finance 27042018 1
Shriram City Union Finance 27042018 1
Shriram City Union Finance 27042018 1
Asset quality remained volatile with GNPLs at 5% versus 5.82% in Q3FY18. Asset quality
trend remains a key monitorable.
Key Metrics
AUM 2,74,610 2,31,320 18.7 2,60,770 5.3 AUM growth momentum improves, a
trend likely to continue over ensuing
quarters
Non-gold 2,53,208 1,97,052 28.5 2,41,340 4.9
Gold 21,402 34,268 (37.5) 19,430 10.2 Gold AUM continues to run down
Disbursements 66,325 62,447 6.2 63,530 4.4
NNPA (%) 3.4 1.8 1.8 High provision coverage (>60%) restricted
NNPAs
NIM (reported, %) 12.1 12.5 14.4
60
45
(INR bn)
30
15
Q4FY16
Q2FY17
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q1FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Product finance Secured loan Personal loan Business loan
Source: Company
20.0
15.0
(%)
10.0
5.0
0.0
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q4FY17
Market
borrowings Bank borrowings
22% 60%
Source: Company
5.8 86.0
4.3 77.0
(%)
(%)
2.9 68.0
1.4 59.0
0.0 50.0
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Ratios
Cost/income (%) 40.0 39.4 41.5 39.2 39.7 38.8
Tax rate (%) 37.8 41.6 33.7 34.9 34.7 34.3
B/V per share (INR) 762.8 842.4 987.7
Adj book value / share 719.3 742.8 887.1
Price/ Book (x) 3.1 2.9 2.4
Price/ Earnings 28.5 23.8 14.0
Company Description
SCUF was incorporated in 1986 as a deposit accepting NBFC. Prior to 2002, it was exclusively
engaged in transport finance with special emphasis on financing pre-owned commercial
vehicles to small road transport operators. In 2002, it extended its product lines to include
small-ticket retail financing, viz., consumer durables, two wheelers, personal, and enterprise
loans. It deliberately went slow on disbursements in the CV segment, which has become a
key area of its group company Shriram Transport Finance. The company's operations are
largely concentrated in the southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka
and the western region (particularly Maharashtra).
SCUF offers only small-ticket retail products (ranging from INR 25,000-250,000) with shorter
tenures (12-30 months), which generate yields in excess of 20%. The company has been
successful in keeping its default rates at lower levels by better assessment of its customers
and effective collection of its loans and has maintained best in class NIMs at 13-14%
Investment Theme
SCUF follows a unique and sound business model with presence in high-yielding, high-
growth, small-ticket retail finance segment (consumer durable finance, auto loans, personal
loans, business finance, and retail gold loans), and RoAs of 3.5-4.0% plus. Demonetisation
and GST have tested SCUF’s business resilience given its dependence on the self-employed
segment. However, the recovery trends are encouraging. We estimate 22-24% AUM CAGR
and >40% earnings CAGR (albeit on low base) over FY18-20, with RoA/RoE of 3.8%/~19%.
Key Risks
SCUF operates in the small-ticket retail finance segment in semi-urban and rural areas and
may face stiff competition from banks, other financial institutions, and multinational players,
which have access to cheap funds. Our earnings estimates may not fructify if the company is
unable to maintain its spreads at expected levels due to inability to maintain yields amidst
stiff competition.
Risk of frauds and NPA accretion is inherent to the retail lending business and NPA
provisioning could be higher than our estimates in case further economic slowdown or dip
in income levels
Financial Statements
Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Macro Interest income 43,041 49,407 59,575 72,518
GDP(Y-o-Y %) 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 Interest expended 15,344 16,670 20,634 25,955
Inflation (Avg) 4.5 3.6 4.5 5.0 Net interest income 27,697 32,737 38,941 46,563
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.5 Other income 1,303.74 1,596.86 1,776.21 1,867.47
USD/INR (Avg) 67.1 64.5 66.0 66.0 Net revenues 29,001 34,334 40,717 48,431
Sector Operating expense 11,359 13,620 15,813 18,353
Credit growth 9.0 12.0 14.0 17.0 - Employee exp 5,503 7,031 8,227 9,628
Borrowings growth (%) 14.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 - Depn /amortisation 346 333 340 344
Bank's base rate (%) 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 - Other opex 5,510 6,256 7,246 8,382
Wholesale borr. cost (%) 20.0 20.0 19.5 19.0 Preprovision profit 17,642 20,715 24,904 30,078
G-sec yield 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.1 Provisions 9,105 10,537 7,622 9,605
Company Profit Before Tax 8,537 10,178 17,281 20,473
Op. metric assump. (%) Less: Provision for Tax 2,976 3,531 5,928 7,022
Yield on advances 20.0 19.2 19.1 19.0 Profit After Tax 5,561 6,647 11,354 13,451
Cost of funds 9.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 Shares o /s (mn) 66 66 66 66
Net interest margins 13.7 13.9 13.6 13.1 Basic EPS (INR) 84.2 100.7 172.1 203.9
Dividend income 21 21 16 13 Diluted shares o/s (mn) 66 66 66 66
Employee cost growth 7.2 27.8 17.0 17.0 Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 84.2 100.7 172.1 203.9
Other opex growth 11.8 13.5 15.8 15.7 Dividend per share (DPS) 15.0 18.0 23.0 23.0
Balance sheet assumption (%) Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 20.8 20.9 15.6 13.2
Disbursement growth 19.9 11.5 22.3 21.5
Securit. during the yr 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 Growth ratios (%)
Bad debt written off 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.7 Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Gross NPLs 6.7 9.0 7.8 7.0 Operating income growth 18.9 18.2 18.9 19.6
Prov Cov 73.3 61.9 64.0 68.0 Revenues 17.6 18.4 18.6 18.9
Net NPLs 1.8 3.4 3.0 2.4 Opex growth 8.9 19.9 16.1 16.1
PPP growth 24.0 17.4 20.2 20.8
Adjusted Profit 5.0 19.5 70.8 18.5
Operating ratios
Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Yield on assets 21.3 21.0 20.8 20.4
Cost of funds 9.8 8.9 8.9 9.0
Net interest margins 13.7 13.9 13.6 13.1
Spread 11.6 12.1 11.9 11.5
Cost-income 39.2 39.7 38.8 37.9
Tax rate 34.9 34.7 34.3 34.3
Additional Data
Directors Data
Debendranath Sarangi Chairman Duruvasan Ramachandran Managing Director & CEO
Gerrit Lodewyk Van Heerde Director Subramaniam Krishnamurthy Director
Vipen Kapur Director Ranvir Dewan Director
Venkataraman Murali Director Pranab Prakash Pattanayak Director
Maya Sinha Director Khushru Burjor Jijina Director
Shashank Singh Director Ramakrishnan Subramanian Director
Holding - Top 10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
Dynasty ACQ FPI Ltd 20.35 Piramal Enterprises Group 9.97
Matthews Intl Capital Management 4.38 East Bridge Cap Master Fnd 3.88
Morgan Stanley 2.29 Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Mgmt 2.05
Cornalina ACQ I Ltd 1.86 Bank Muscat SAOG 1.59
Acacia Partners LP 1.52 SBI Funds Management 1.37
*as per last available data
Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
13 Apr 2018 Fidelity Fund - Pacific Fund Sell 480853 2200.00
*in last one year
Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
No Data Available
*in last one year
ABSOLUTE RATING
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months
Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe
within the sector
SECTOR RATING
Ratings Criteria
Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]
ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED,
Aditya Narain ou=HEAD RESEARCH, cn=ADITYA NARAIN,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c27990f20
bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792c20,
Head of Research
NARAIN
postalCode=400005,
2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8e0c89
e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c07b02,
[email protected] st=Maharashtra
Date: 2018.04.27 00:21:30 +05'30'
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
743
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11
594
2,600
297
2,420
149 2,240
(INR)
- 2,060
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
May-14
Jan-14
1,880
1,700
Dec-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Apr-17
Apr-18
May-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-18
Jul-17
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