Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 20 views

    Daily Currency Outlook: September 11, 2019

    Uploaded by

    saran21
    The document provides a daily currency outlook report. It recommends buying the US dollar-Indian rupee currency pair in the September futures contract on the NSE at a price range of 71.88 to 71.92, targeting 72.15 to 72.25, with a stop loss of 71.72. It also provides analysis of other currency pairs and global factors that may influence currency movements.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Daily Currency Outlook: September 11, 2019

    Uploaded by

    saran21
    20 views7 pages
    The document provides a daily currency outlook report. It recommends buying the US dollar-Indian rupee currency pair in the September futures contract on the NSE at a price range of 71.88 to 71.92, targeting 72.15 to 72.25, with a stop loss of 71.72. It also provides analysis of other currency pairs and global factors that may influence currency movements.

    Original Description:

    Icici_110919

    Original Title

    Icici_110919

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    The document provides a daily currency outlook report. It recommends buying the US dollar-Indian rupee currency pair in the September futures contract on the NSE at a price range of 71.88 to 71.92, targeting 72.15 to 72.25, with a stop loss of 71.72. It also provides analysis of other currency pairs and global factors that may influence currency movements.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    20 views7 pages

    Daily Currency Outlook: September 11, 2019

    Uploaded by

    saran21
    The document provides a daily currency outlook report. It recommends buying the US dollar-Indian rupee currency pair in the September futures contract on the NSE at a price range of 71.88 to 71.92, targeting 72.15 to 72.25, with a stop loss of 71.72. It also provides analysis of other currency pairs and global factors that may influence currency movements.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 7

    September 11, 2019

    Daily Currency outlook

    • PRODUCT 1

    ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


    Recommendation in the report
    Currency pair Contract Action Price Target Stoploss Duration
    US$INR September futures Buy 71.90 72.20 71.72 1 day
    • PRODUCT 2

    Research Analysts
    Amit Gupta
    [email protected]

    Gaurav Shah
    [email protected]
    Forex and global equities
    Spot Currency
    • The rupee extended mild gains on Monday registering fourth session
    Currency Close Pvs. Close % Change of consecutive gains. However Implied opening from forwards

    Currency Outlook
    US$-INR 71.71 71.73 -0.03 suggest it is likely to open weak today tracking gains in US$ as well as
    Dollar index 98.33 98.28 0.05 steep rise in US yields
    EUR-US$ 1.1043 1.1048 -0.05
    • The dollar index closed mildly higher in yesterday session even as US
    GBP-US$ 1.2350 1.2346 0.03 president has fired his National security advisor (NSA) Bolton.
    US$-CNY 7.1127 7.1219 -0.13 Investors are gearing up ahead of crucial ECB policy meeting
    US$-JPY 107.54 107.24 0.28 tomorrow. Chinese Yuan has seen some cool off in last few sessions
    US$-CHF 0.9921 0.9921 0.00 and is currently trading at 7.11. EM currencies are likely to remain on
    edge ahead of crucial ECB and Fed policy meetings this month

    ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


    Global Equity Indices
    • Equity benchmarks gained for fourth successive session, a first since
    Indices Close Pvs. Close % Change
    Union Budget 2019. Nifty gained 0.5% to settle at 11003
    Dow Jones 26909 26836 0.28
    S & P 500 2979 2978 0.03 • Nifty midcap and small cap indices outperformed with gain of 1.2%
    FTSE 7268 7236 0.44
    and 0.8%, respectively resulting in positive A/D
    DAX 12269 12226 0.35
    HangSang 26781 26684 0.37
    Nikkei 21514 21392 0.57
    SGX Nifty 11017 10971 0.41

    *Asian equity indices at 8.00 am


    Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
    Debt and FII activity

    Benchmark yield • Domestic benchmark 10-year yields fell on Monday to 6.58%, while
    Close Pvs. Close % Change
    overall they remain in a range. Expectation of a rate cut in backdrop
    of some recovery in US yields are keeping domestic yields in range
    India 10-yr 6.58 6.60 -0.38
    US 10-yr 1.73 1.64 5.34 • US treasury yields jumped sharply to 1.73% as investors remain on
    Eur 10-yr -0.55 -0.59 -6.50 sidelines ahead of ECB policy meeting. Also fresh Government and
    UK 10-yr 0.64 0.59 8.12 corporate offerings increased the concerns over supply and
    JPY 10-yr -0.22 -0.25 -11.95 weighed on bond prices

    Commodities • Gold extended profit booking for fourth session with non-interest
    Close pvs close % change
    paying asset down by over 4.25% in last four trading sessions.
    Gold 1486 1499 -0.89
    Central bank policy meet outcomes crucial for further moves in gold

    ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


    Copper 261.1 261.1 0.00 • Oil closed slightly lower in yesterday session ahead of US weekly
    Brent 62.4 62.6 -0.34 inventory report. It is likely to show stock drawdown of 2.65 mb as
    against previously 4.77 mb drawdown

    FII Activity
    • Foreign institutional investors (FII) were net seller to the tune of
    Segment Purchase Sell Net | crores
    | 608 crore on September 6, 2019
    Equity 3220 4472 -1252
    Debt 1756 1112 644 • FIIs have been net sellers of more than | 3039 crore in September
    Net -608 2019

    Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research, CDSL


    INR futures and Outlook

    Currency futures on NSE • The dollar-rupee September contract on the NSE was at
    (%) change 71.84 in the previous session. Open interest declined
    Contracts LTP chng (%) OI Vol
    OI Vol 3.49% in the previous session
    September
    October
    71.84
    72.12
    0.00
    0.01
    3111375
    447179
    1487880
    241258
    -3.49
    3.51
    -9.99
    -1.60
    •c
    • We expect the US$INR to find support at lower levels.
    Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions
    Sep-Oct -0.28 - - 1246622 - 83.79
    Oct-Nov -0.22 - - 225828 - 93.60

    Pivot levels US$INR Strategy

    ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


    Futures S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 US$INR September futures contract (NSE)
    US$INR (Sep) 71.55 71.70 71.79 71.93 72.02 Buy US$ in the range of 71.88 -71.92 Market Lot: US$1000
    US$INR (Oct) 71.82 71.97 72.06 72.21 72.30 Target: 72.15 / 72.25 Stop Loss: 71.72
    EURINR (Sep) 78.99 79.16 79.30 79.47 79.61 Support Resistance
    EURINR (Oct) 79.48 79.65 79.78 79.95 80.08 S1/ S2: 71.95 / 71.80 R1/R2:72.20 / 72.30
    GBPINR (Sep) 87.21 88.01 88.48 89.29 89.75 *Recommendation initiation message shall be broadcasted on iclick2gain at relevant prices
    GBPINR (Oct) 87.69 88.47 88.92 89.70 90.15
    JPYINR (Sep) 66.89 67.05 67.21 67.36 67.52 Note: The given recommendation in this report is intraday and should not be
    linked with positional view & recommendations given in Monthly currency
    JPYINR (Oct) 67.32 67.44 67.57 67.70 67.83 Derivatives and Positional Currency report which may have different view.

    Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


    US$INR Spot currency

    US$INR Spot

    ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


    Strategy update
    Date Currency pair Strategy Rec. Target SL (P/L)* Comment
    9-Sep-19 US$INR Sell US$INR 71.79 71.62 71.91 140 Exit in profit

    Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research


    Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

    ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


    ICICI Direct Research Desk,

    ICICI Securities Limited,

    1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

    Road No 7, MIDC,

    Andheri (East)

    Mumbai – 400 093

    [email protected]
    DISCLAIMER

    I/We, Gaurav shah (MMS Finance), Amit Gupta (B.E, MBA), authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed
    in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or
    will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

    Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

    ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and
    distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI
    Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector
    bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital
    fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

    The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way,
    transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of
    ICICI Securities Limited. The author may be holding a position in currency derivatives as on date of release of this report. ICICI Securities Limited may be
    holding a proprietary position in currency derivatives as on the date of release of this report." This report is based on information obtained from public

    ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research


    sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report
    and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell
    or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a
    representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed
    in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial
    positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient
    should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of
    the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in
    projections. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
    locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would
    subject ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may
    not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to
    inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its
    various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management,
    etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

    You might also like