HOffshore Infield
HOffshore Infield
HOffshore Infield
The information contained in this document is believed to be accurate, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Infield Systems
Limited as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of any information contained in it, and we do not accept any responsibility in relation to such information
whether fact, opinion or conclusion that the reader may draw. The views expressed are those of the individual contributors and do not represent those of the
publishers.
Some of the statements contained in this document are forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements
concerning estimates of recoverable hydrocarbons, expected hydrocarbon prices, expected costs, numbers of development units, statements relating to the
continued advancement of the industry’s projects and other statements which are not historical facts. When used in this document, and in other published
information of the Company, the words such as "could," "forecast”, “estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "potential," "should," and similar expressions are
forward-looking statements.
Although the Company believes that its expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risk and uncertainties
and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Various factors could cause actual results to differ
from these forward-looking statements, including the potential for the industry’s projects to experience technical or mechanical problems or changes in
financial decisions, geological conditions in the reservoir may not result in a commercial level of oil and gas production, changes in product prices and other
risks not anticipated by the Company. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature, they involve inherent risks
and uncertainties.
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Infield Systems Ltd.
A globally recognised oil & gas consultancy with a dedicated international team of
cross-sector specialists
Office Locations Key Global Personnel
James Hall (Director)
London
[email protected] +44 207 423 5024
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Products & Services
A leading offshore oil and gas and associated services consultancy
Data, Reports & GIS Mapping Business Strategy & Analysis Transaction Services
• Market matching and market tracking
• Offshore specific data covering
– “Match & Track”
production infrastructure, rigs, • Pre IPO due diligence
• Complete market intelligence
specialist vessels, construction yards, • Market overview IPO
outsourcing
contracts and OFS providers • Debt financing analysis
• Bespoke sector services
• Sector specific reports • Distressed asset purchases
• Market entry strategy
• GIS mapping services covering • Buy/sell side market due diligence
• Procurement strategy advisory –
operational and forecasted production • Opportunity identification
“Project Flow”
infrastructure
• Ad-hoc sector analysis
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Agenda
I. Macro Market
• Oil – Gas Prices
• Key Industry Trends
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Oil Price 2012
Brent will likely be traded within a relative narrow range between $100 - $120/bbl
A Tight Trading Range for Brent
• $90/bbl floor:
150
Would spur supply responses from oil
$/bbl
• $120/bbl ceiling:
110
High prices already driving exploration
and development of new resources (tight
oil, oil sands, biofuels, ultra-deepwater,
90 harsh environments)
Substantial drag on global economic
Supply Responses
growth
70
10
2012:
5
• Global gas consumption grew by 2%
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Japan EU US • Non–OECD consumption grew 2.8%
Global Gas Demand
OECD Non-OECD China Japan
• OECD consumption grew by 1%.
3000
2000
7
Sources: Infield Systems, BP
Offshore Production Gains Ground…
• Onshore production has levelled-out
• More E&P activity is taking place in deeper waters, remote locations & harsh
climates.
• 30% of the world’s oil production comes from offshore areas
24%
60
40
67%
20
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percentage %
8
Sources: Infield Systems, BP
Marginal Fields…
Fields On-Stream Year by Reserve Size and Water Depth
3,000m.
2,500m.
Metres
2,000m.
1,500m.
1,000m.
500m.
0m.
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
12,000
8,000
4,000
Year on-stream
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
9
Source: Infield Systems
Further – Remote – Harsher
• Installation location of production platforms - 10km in 1970
Present: Husky’s SeaRose FPSO, Canada – 350km from shore
• Chasing viability of marginal fields enables longer tiebacks
• Lack of existing offshore infrastructure or onshore refining capacity in new frontiers
125 KM MC Mensa
100 KM
Saurus, Egypt
75 KM
50 KM
2012: 13Kms
25 KM 2000: 10Kms
0 KM
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
10
Sources: Infield Systems
Shale Gas Reserves
6,600tcf in 33 countries.
Latin America 1,900tcf , China 1,275tcf, US 482tcf, Canada 388tcf, South Africa 485tcf
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Sources: Infield Systems, EIA
Effects of Shale Gas
• US could become a net exporter of NG over the next decade
• US currently supplied from Canada and Mexico & LNG shipments from Africa
• US exports might put pressure on Australian LNG and CBM (Coal Bed Methane)
projects - Shtokman
US Gas Production (TCF/year) (EIA)
30
25 Consumption
20 Shale gas
TCF/year
15
Tight gas
10
Onshore conventional
5
Offshore
0
Coalbed methane
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
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Sources: Infield Systems, EIA, BP
Effects of Shale Gas on US GoM
Dramatic effect on US shallow water investment
Shallow Platform Installations vs. E&A Wells
• Continued expectation of low platform
600 installation numbers in the US
200
• However, opportunities do lie in the
deeper waters of the GoM
100 ‐ Tiber, Lucius, Hadrian…
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
13
Sources: Infield Systems, EIA, Reuters, BOEMRE
US GoM Drilling Trends
Shallow water gas market depressed, deep water drilling activity robust
US GoM Permit Approvals (new wells only)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Deep Shallow
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Source: BOEMRE
East Africa – New LNG Frontier
According to the UGS over 250 Tcf of natural gas may lie off East Africa
New Gas Fields Offshore East Africa
70,000
60,000
50,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mozambique Tanzania
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Source: USGS
Arctic Resources
412Bboe of Undiscovered Resources - 84% of it is thought to be Offshore
Hebron
Hibernia
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Sources: Infield Systems, USGS
Offshore Arctic Resources
There are 174 discovered fields in the offshore Arctic - 137 Bboe
Discovered Natural Gas Reserves (Bcf) by Country
• The offshore Arctic is primarily a natural 600,000
gas play 500,000
400,000
300,000
• 85% is natural gas against 13% are oil 200,000
100,000
0
• Discovered resources are 83% Russian Canada Canada Norway
(Arctic
Russia Russia USA
(Sakhalin) (Alaska)
(high Arctic and Sakhalin Island): Ocean)
Discovered Oil Reserves (Mbbl) by Country
5,000
• Large number of super-giant fields
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Canada Canada Norway Russia Russia USA
(Arctic (Sakhalin) (Alaska)
Ocean)
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Source: Infield Systems
Offshore Arctic – Stop or Go?
Offshore Arctic faces an extremely uncertain future
Shtokman – Indefinitely Delayed
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Source: Infield Systems, www.vancouversun.com
Global Capex
• A 800$bn Industry until 2018
• Subsea investment is growing faster – 14% GAGR
160,000
Pipeline Platform Subsea ControlLine SPM
140,000
120,000
US$(m)
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Sources: Infield Systems, EIA, BP
Offshore Capex 2012-2018
A migration to deeper waters albeit with conventional demand remaining buoyant
10%
11%
56 21 86%
84%
% %
44% 16
20% 27
%
%
Africa:US$120bn
58
% 84
18%
62% %
Latin America:US$107bn
Austalasia:US$54bn
NOTE: Global infrastructure spend by region includes subsea, pipeline, platform, control line
and SPM installations. Capex in this analysis include EPIC but excludes drilling.
Operational Platforms in 2012
Operational Fixed: 10,700 Installations Fixed: 185
Operational Floaters: 395 Installations Floating: 28
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Sources: Infield Systems
Operational Platforms in 2018
Operational Fixed: 9,060 Installations Fixed: 280
Operational Floaters: 540 Installations Floating: 60
Energy Engines
Cernambi North 98 MW 4 units
Lula Alto P66 96 MW 4 units
Guanabara FSRU 49 MW 2 units
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Source: Infield Systems
Subsea Market
Subsea Tree Installations are increasing… Ultra-deep Rig Fleet is increasing…
670 Midwater
700
Deepwater
600 400 Ultradeep Water 217
136
500
Tree Installations
300 60%
400 327
Rig units
300 200
200
100
100
0 0
2013
1990
1998
2000
2002
2004
2007
2009
2011
2015
2017
2019
2021
Installation Year Operational Year
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Sources: Infield Systems
Field Sanction Points
Current oil price is sufficient to support the vast majority of developments
Average Field Sanction Point by Water Depth
0m
• Shallow water reserves clustered
Shallow between $10-30/bbl
500m
Deep
• Conventional fields easily viable in all
1,000m
price scenarios
1,500m
Ultra
Deep • Deepwater fields: $36 - $80/bbl
2,000m across regions and operator types.
Water depth (m)
2,500m
3,000m
3,500m
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90$100$110
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Source: Infield Systems
Questions?
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