Latest 2018-4-10 PDF
Latest 2018-4-10 PDF
Latest 2018-4-10 PDF
WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised this month by 30
million bushels to 1,064 million, all on lower feed and residual use. The NASS Grain
Stocks report, issued March 29, implied less feed and residual usage for the third
quarter (December-February) than previously estimated. This report also showed
record U.S. corn stocks on March 1, which are expected to continue displacing wheat
for feed use for the remainder of 2017/18. No other supply or use categories are
changed this month. Based on NASS prices and marketings reported to date along
with price expectations for the rest of 2017/18, the season-average farm price is
unchanged at the range of $4.60 to $4.70 per bushel.
World 2017/18 wheat supplies increased this month by nearly 3.0 million tons as
production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million, mainly on Morocco’s higher
production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. Global supplies
also increased with a multi-year reduction in Iran’s food, seed, and industrial use, which
raised carry-in stocks by nearly 2.0 million tons.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced feed and
residual use, slightly lower food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, and increased ending
stocks. FSI is lowered 5 million bushels, as a 10-million-bushel reduction in the amount
of corn used for glucose and dextrose is partially offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in
corn used for starch. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels to
5,500 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during the first half of the
marketing year in the March 29 Grain Stocks report. With supply unchanged and total
use declining, ending stocks are raised 55 million bushels. The projected range for the
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season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at the midpoint with the
range narrowed to $3.20 to $3.50 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 7.0 million tons lower than last
month to 1,315.0 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower
production, consumption, trade, and stocks relative to last month. Argentina corn
production is down based on reductions to both harvested area and yield. Yield results
have been below expectations, while dry conditions are expected to increase the
amount of corn harvested for forage or grazed. Brazil corn production is reduced
reflecting expectations of lower second-crop corn area. If realized, the combined corn
production of Argentina and Brazil for 2017/18 would be 14.5 million tons below the
record reached in 2016/17. Other coarse grain production changes of note for 2017/18
include lower barley production for Belarus and reduced corn production for Paraguay,
with corn production increases for Mexico and South Africa.
Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include lower projected corn exports for Brazil
and Argentina, with reduced export competition from these countries expected to
impact the first half of the 2018/19 marketing year in the United States. Corn imports
are lowered for Iran, Malaysia, Taiwan, Mexico, and Chile, with partially offsetting
increases for Bangladesh and Turkey. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered 2.8
million tons from last month, with the largest declines for Argentina, Paraguay, and
Brazil.
RICE: U.S. 2017/18 rice ending stocks are raised 4.1 million cwt to 33.3 million, mostly
on decreased exports. These ending stock levels still remain below the 5-year
average. The 4.0-million-cwt decrease in exports is divided evenly between long-grain
and medium- and short-grain. Rough and milled rice exports are also lowered by 3.0
and 1.0 million cwt, respectively. The export reduction reflects a slow pace to date as
well as increased competition in core Western Hemisphere export markets. The all-rice
season average farm price is raised $0.10 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $12.40
to $12.80. This increased price is all due to higher projected medium- and short-grain
prices.
Global 2017/18 rice production is raised 1.2 million tons to a new record led by 0.3-
million-ton increases each for Brazil, Burma, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Global rice
exports are raised 0.8 million tons with a 0.3-million-ton increase for Thailand and 0.2-
million-ton increases each for Burma, India, and Pakistan. Imports are raised 0.5
million tons for Indonesia and 0.3 million tons for Bangladesh. Global domestic use is
reduced fractionally. With supplies increasing and total use decreasing, world ending
stocks are raised 1.4 million tons to 144.4 million and are the second highest stocks on
record.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2017/18 include increased
crush, lower seed and residual use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is
projected at a record 1,970 million bushels, up 10 million reflecting higher soybean
meal prices which are supporting crush margins. Seed use is reduced in line with the
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The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production,
exports, crush, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is
lowered 5.7 million tons to 568.8 million, with a 6.1-million-ton reduction for soybean
production and slightly higher projections for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, copra, and palm
kernel. Lower soybean production for Argentina, India, and Uruguay is partly offset by
higher production for Brazil. Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at a record 115.0
million tons, up 2.0 million on higher projected yields for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do
Sul, and Parana due to beneficial rainfall during the growing season. For Argentina,
production is lowered 7.0 million tons to 40.0 million on reduced harvested area and
yield, reflecting dry conditions during January through March. With reduced production,
soybean crush for Argentina is lowered 1.8 million tons to 41.2 million, resulting in lower
soybean meal and oil supplies traded globally. Other oilseed production changes
include reduced sunflower and peanut production for Argentina, higher sunflowerseed
production for the European Union, and increased rapeseed production for Belarus.
Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 174.1 million tons, down 0.6 million on
lower soybean, peanut, and rapeseed shipments. Soybean exports are reduced 0.2
million tons as higher exports for Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine are offset by lower exports
for Argentina and Uruguay. Peanut and rapeseed exports are lowered for Senegal and
the European Union, respectively. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6
million tons to 90.8 million with reductions mainly for Argentina, Brazil, and the EU.
SUGAR: U.S. beet sugar production is decreased 80,000 short tons raw value
(STRV), to 5.139 million based on reduced sucrose recovery. Florida cane sugar
production is reduced by 19,287 STRV to 1.973 million based on the latest processor
reports. High-tier tariff imports for 2017/18 are increased by 5,000 STRV to 15,000
based on pace to date. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are residually projected at 1.859
million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.7 percent, down from last month’s
15.5 percent. The Mexico sugar supply and use balance is unchanged from last
month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2018 forecast for total red meat and
poultry production is lowered from last month as forecasts for all major meats are
reduced. The beef production forecast is reduced from the previous month on lower
first-half slaughter and lighter weights, but this decline is partly offset by higher
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expected third-quarter slaughter. Pork production is raised for the first quarter based
on estimated production data, but lowered for outlying quarters on a slower pace of
slaughter and lighter carcass weights. The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report of
March 29, estimated producers farrowed 2 percent more sows during December to
February and indicated intentions to farrow about 2 percent more sows in March to
May. These hogs will be ready for slaughter in the second half of 2018. Broiler and
turkey production is reduced on recent hatchery data. First-quarter egg production is
reduced on recent production data but no change is made to the outlying quarters.
For 2018, beef imports and exports are unchanged from last month. The pork import
forecast is unchanged. Pork exports are reduced on weaker expected exports to China
although exports to other markets are expected to increase. No change is made to
broiler or turkey exports.
Cattle and hog price forecasts are reduced from last month as demand for cattle and
hogs has softened and supplies are expected to be large in the coming quarters. The
broiler price forecast is raised from last month as stronger demand in the first quarter is
expected to carry into subsequent quarters. Turkey prices are reduced through the
year on the continued slow recovery in demand. Egg price forecasts are raised on
robust demand.
The milk production forecast for 2018 is unchanged from last month. The 2018 import
forecast is reduced slightly on a fat basis, but is unchanged on a skim-solids basis.
Exports on fat basis are unchanged from last month, but skim-solids-basis exports are
raised on stronger sales of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder, and lactose.
The annual product price forecast for cheese is unchanged at the midpoint although the
range is narrowed. Butter prices are expected to increase more slowly in the second
half of the year and the price forecast is reduced. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is
reduced slightly on current prices. The annual whey price forecast is lowered on larger
supplies and weaker demand. The Class III price is lowered on the lower whey price
forecast while the Class IV price is down on lower NDM and butter price forecasts. The
all milk price forecast is lowered to $15.60 to $16.10 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2017/18 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show higher exports
and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are
unchanged. The export forecast is raised 200,000 bales, to 15.0 million, based on the
pace of recent sales and shipments. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.3 million
bales, equivalent to 29 percent of total disappearance. The marketing year price
received by producers is projected to average 68 cents per pound, a reduction of 1 cent
from last month.
Lower global beginning stocks this month result in lower projected 2017/18 ending
stocks despite higher world production and lower consumption. World beginning stocks
are 900,000 bales lower this month, largely attributable to historical revisions for Brazil
and Australia. World production is about 250,000 bales higher as a larger Brazilian
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crop more than offsets a decline for Sudan. Consumption is about 400,000 bales lower
as lower consumption in India, Indonesia, and some smaller countries more than
offsets Vietnam’s increase. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are nearly 600,000 bales lower
in total this month as reductions for Brazil, Sudan, the United States, and Australia
more than offset an increase for Pakistan.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board,
Seth D. Meyer, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committees.
APPROVED BY:
WARREN PRESTON
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
WASDE-576-6
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
In 2018, the WASDE report will be released on May 10, Jun 12,
Jul 12, Aug 10, Sep 12, Oct 11, Nov 8, and Dec 11.
WASDE-576-7
T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S
Page
Highlights............................................................................................................. 1
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees .................................................... 6
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains .................................................................. 8
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton .................................................................. 9
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................ 10
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use .................................................................................. 11
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class .................................................................... 11
U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use ............................................................... 12
U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ....................................................... 13
U.S. Rice Supply & Use ..................................................................................... 14
U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ........................................................... 15
U.S. Sugar Supply & Use ................................................................................... 16
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use ........................................................................... 16
U.S. Cotton Supply & Use .................................................................................. 17
World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................ 18
World Coarse Grains Supply & Use.................................................................... 20
World Corn Supply & Use .................................................................................. 22
World Rice Supply & Use ................................................................................... 24
World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................ 26
World Soybean Supply & Use ............................................................................ 28
World Soybean Meal Supply & Use .................................................................... 29
World Soybean Oil Supply & Use ....................................................................... 30
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production .......................................................... 31
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products .......................................................... 31
U.S. Meats Supply and Use ............................................................................... 32
U.S. Egg Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 33
U.S. Milk Supply and Use .................................................................................. 33
U.S. Dairy Prices ............................................................................................... 34
Reliability Tables................................................................................................ 35
Related USDA Reports ...................................................................................... 38
Metric Conversion Factors ................................................................................. 38
Electronic Access and Subscriptions ...................................................................... 40
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 8
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports).
4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes
millet and mixed grains).
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 9
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice.
5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to
world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 10
Foreign 3/ Output
Total
Supply Trade
Total
Use 2/
Ending
Stoc ks
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 11
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 12
CORN
March April
Million Acres
Area Planted 88.0 94.0 90.2 90.2
Area Harvested 80.8 86.7 82.7 82.7
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.6
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,293
Production 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,604
Imports 68 57 50 50
Supply, Total 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,947
Feed and Residual 5,114 5,472 5,550 5,500
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ 6,648 6,883 7,045 7,040
Ethanol & by-products 3/ 5,224 5,432 5,575 5,575
Domestic, Total 11,763 12,356 12,595 12,540
Exports 1,901 2,293 2,225 2,225
Use, Total 13,664 14,649 14,820 14,765
Ending Stocks 1,737 2,293 2,127 2,182
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ 3.61 3.36 3.15 - 3.55 3.20 - 3.50
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for
barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed
Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to
produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-
year weighted average price received by farmers.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 13
BARLEY
March April
OATS
March April
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and
oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 14
LONG-GRAIN RICE
March April
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not
included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2015/16-2.9; 2016/17-2.9; 2017/18-2.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and
estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and
milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice
produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice
are estimated. 9/ The medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is
not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may
differ. For example, the average difference between the August WASDE SAFP forecast and the final price has averaged $1.65 per cwt from 2008/09-2013/14, with a
high of $3.50 per cwt in 2008/09 and a low of $0.60 per cwt in 2009/10. 10/ Marketing year beginning October 1.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 15
Million Acres
Area Planted 82.7 83.4 90.1 90.1
Area Harvested 81.7 82.7 89.5 89.5
Filler
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 48.0 52.0 49.1 49.1
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 191 197 302 302
Production 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,392
Imports 24 22 25 25
Supply, Total 4,140 4,515 4,718 4,718
Crushings 1,886 1,901 1,960 1,970
Exports 1,942 2,174 2,065 2,065
Seed 97 105 106 103
Residual 18 34 33 30
Use, Total 3,944 4,213 4,163 4,168
Ending Stocks 197 302 555 550
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ 8.95 9.47 9.00 - 9.60 9.10 - 9.50
Total
SOYBEAN OIL
March April
Million Pounds
Beginning Stocks 1,855 1,687 1,711 1,711
Production 4/ 21,950 22,123 22,640 22,755
Imports 287 319 300 300
Supply, Total 24,092 24,129 24,651 24,766
Domestic Disappearance 20,162 19,862 21,000 20,800
Biodiesel 3/ 5,670 6,200 7,200 7,000
Food, Feed & other Industrial 14,492 13,661 13,800 13,800
Exports 2,243 2,556 1,900 2,000
Use, Total 22,405 22,418 22,900 22,800
Ending stocks 1,687 1,711 1,751 1,966
Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 29.86 32.48 30.00 - 33.00 30.50 - 32.50
Total
SOYBEAN MEAL
March April
Filler 1 2 3 4
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for
soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers;
oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made
from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 1,908 million bushels
for 2016/17 and 1,970 million bushels for 2017/18.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 16
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Historical data are from FSA "Sweetener Market Data" (SMD). 2/ Production projections
for 2016/17 and 2017/18 are based on Crop Production and processor projections where appropriate. 3/ For 2017/18, WTO
raw sugar TRQ shortfall (183). For 2016/17, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall is undefined because of 13th month rollover
into 2017/18. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ For 2015/16, other high-tier (16)
and other (0). For 2016/17, other high-tier (12) and other (0). For 2017/18, other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/For 2014/15,
combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use and SMD miscellaneous uses. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing
products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol, feed, and ethanol.
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/
Beginning Ending
Stocks Production Imports Domestic 2/ Exports Stocks
1/ HFCS consumption by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): Estimated Oct-Sep 2016/17 = 1,522, projected 2017/18 =
1,608; Oct - Feb 2016/17 = 578, Oct - Feb 2017/18 = 630. Footnote source for estimate: Comite Nacional para el Desarollo
Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes deliveries for consumption, Mexico's products export program (IMMEX), and
Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments. IMMEX: 2016/17 (397 est), 2017/18 (390 proj). Other
Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments: 2015/16 (-10), 2016/17 (-61), 2017/18 (0).
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 17
Pounds
Yield per Harvested Acre 766 867 889 889
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.65 3.80 2.75 2.75
Production 12.89 17.17 21.03 21.03
Imports 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 16.57 20.98 23.79 23.79
Domestic Use 3.45 3.25 3.35 3.35
Exports, Total 9.15 14.92 14.80 15.00
Use, Total 12.60 18.17 18.15 18.35
Unaccounted 2/ 0.17 0.06 0.14 0.14
Ending Stocks 3.80 2.75 5.50 5.30
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 61.2 68.0 68.00 - 70.00 67.00 - 69.00
Total
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 18
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports
and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and
reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico,
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 23
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and
exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South
Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and
Vietnam.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 24
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic
includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India,
Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade
excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 25
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.
Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences
in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines,
selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/
Central American and Caribbean countries.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 26
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/
Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the
difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt
and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed,
includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 27
Major Exporters 4/ Mar 26.55 54.53 2.46 32.94 20.33 -0.28 30.56
Apr 25.65 55.22 2.41 32.64 20.51 0.02 30.12
Central Asia 5/ Mar 2.39 6.20 3/ 3.20 2.68 0.00 2.71
Apr 2.44 6.20 3/ 3.20 2.76 0.00 2.68
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Mar 1.77 5.16 3/ 0.13 4.19 0.00 2.62
Apr 1.77 5.16 3/ 0.13 4.19 0.00 2.62
S. Hemis 7/ Mar 11.05 14.21 0.26 4.47 8.99 -0.29 12.36
Apr 10.10 14.90 0.21 4.47 8.79 0.01 11.95
Australia Mar 2.39 4.70 3/ 0.04 4.40 -0.15 2.81
Apr 2.19 4.70 3/ 0.04 4.20 0.00 2.66
Brazil Mar 7.61 8.00 0.10 3.40 4.20 -0.15 8.26
Apr 6.86 8.70 0.05 3.40 4.20 0.00 8.01
India Mar 11.13 28.50 1.70 24.50 4.20 0.00 12.63
Apr 11.13 28.50 1.70 24.20 4.50 0.00 12.63
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
Major Importers 8/ Mar 56.78 42.89 33.87 80.39 2.37 0.09 50.70
Apr 56.78 42.90 34.12 80.34 2.37 0.09 51.01
Mexico Mar 0.44 1.54 0.88 1.85 0.30 0.03 0.68
Apr 0.44 1.54 0.98 1.85 0.35 0.03 0.73
China Mar 48.42 27.50 5.10 40.00 0.05 0.00 40.97
Apr 48.42 27.50 5.10 40.00 0.05 0.00 40.97
European Union 9/ Mar 0.27 1.52 0.71 0.74 1.41 0.00 0.36
Apr 0.27 1.52 0.71 0.74 1.41 0.00 0.36
Turkey Mar 1.58 4.00 3.80 7.10 0.35 0.00 1.93
Apr 1.58 4.00 3.80 7.10 0.35 0.00 1.93
Pakistan Mar 2.27 8.20 2.70 10.40 0.25 0.03 2.49
Apr 2.27 8.20 2.90 10.40 0.20 0.03 2.74
Indonesia Mar 0.62 3/ 3.50 3.45 0.01 0.00 0.67
Apr 0.62 3/ 3.40 3.35 0.01 0.00 0.67
Thailand Mar 0.20 3/ 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.03 0.18
Apr 0.20 3/ 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh Mar 1.66 0.13 7.40 7.30 0.00 0.01 1.87
Apr 1.66 0.14 7.40 7.30 0.00 0.01 1.88
Vietnam Mar 0.88 3/ 6.70 6.45 0.00 0.00 1.14
Apr 0.88 3/ 6.80 6.55 0.00 0.00 1.14
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other
factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the
United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/
Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania,
and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and
Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 28
2017/18 Proj.
World 2/ Mar 96.65 340.86 151.27 300.86 343.78 150.60 94.40
Apr 96.72 334.81 151.71 299.22 342.03 150.40 90.80
United States Mar 8.21 119.52 0.68 53.34 57.11 56.20 15.10
Apr 8.21 119.52 0.68 53.62 57.23 56.20 14.97
Total Foreign Mar 88.44 221.34 150.59 247.52 286.67 94.40 79.30
Apr 88.51 215.29 151.03 245.61 284.80 94.20 75.83
Major Exporters 3/ Mar 62.36 171.40 2.61 89.78 97.99 85.20 53.18
Apr 62.36 165.90 2.61 88.00 96.22 84.70 49.95
Argentina Mar 36.22 47.00 2.40 43.00 47.62 6.80 31.20
Apr 36.22 40.00 2.40 41.23 45.85 4.20 28.58
Brazil Mar 25.47 113.00 0.20 43.00 46.50 70.50 21.67
Apr 25.47 115.00 0.20 43.00 46.50 73.10 21.07
Paraguay Mar 0.66 9.20 0.01 3.70 3.78 5.80 0.29
Apr 0.66 9.20 0.01 3.70 3.78 5.80 0.29
Major Importers 4/ Mar 22.82 18.20 127.30 120.75 144.73 0.50 23.09
Apr 22.81 18.13 127.45 120.95 144.93 0.50 22.95
China Mar 20.39 14.20 97.00 95.00 110.80 0.15 20.64
Apr 20.39 14.20 97.00 95.00 110.80 0.15 20.64
European Union Mar 1.14 2.50 14.00 14.50 16.15 0.30 1.19
Apr 1.10 2.50 14.00 14.60 16.25 0.30 1.05
Japan Mar 0.21 0.26 3.25 2.35 3.51 0.00 0.21
Apr 0.22 0.26 3.25 2.35 3.52 0.00 0.21
Mexico Mar 0.15 0.48 4.25 4.72 4.76 0.00 0.12
Apr 0.15 0.48 4.40 4.87 4.91 0.00 0.12
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports
and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 4/ China, European Union, Japan,
Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand).
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 29
2017/18 Proj.
World 2/ Mar 12.11 236.70 63.26 233.66 66.69 11.71
Apr 12.48 235.12 61.80 232.19 65.39 11.82
United States Mar 0.36 42.00 0.27 31.12 11.25 0.27
Apr 0.36 42.23 0.36 31.34 11.34 0.27
Total Foreign Mar 11.75 194.70 62.98 202.55 55.44 11.43
Apr 12.11 192.89 61.44 200.84 54.05 11.55
Major Exporters 3/ Mar 7.41 73.70 0.04 26.53 47.75 6.87
Apr 7.26 71.64 0.04 25.48 46.55 6.91
Argentina Mar 3.33 33.28 0.00 3.00 30.80 2.81
Apr 3.34 31.60 0.00 2.90 29.50 2.54
Brazil Mar 3.60 33.40 0.03 17.98 15.25 3.80
Apr 3.70 33.40 0.03 17.48 15.45 4.20
India Mar 0.48 7.02 0.01 5.55 1.70 0.26
Apr 0.22 6.64 0.01 5.10 1.60 0.17
Major Importers 4/ Mar 1.25 16.48 37.53 53.29 0.51 1.45
Apr 1.64 16.52 37.13 53.26 0.51 1.52
European Union Mar 0.23 11.46 19.20 30.34 0.30 0.24
Apr 0.33 11.53 18.90 30.19 0.30 0.27
Southeast Asia 5/ Mar 0.98 3.25 16.63 19.48 0.21 1.17
Apr 1.21 3.21 16.58 19.59 0.21 1.20
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ European Union, Southeast Asia, and Japan. 5/
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 30
2017/18 Proj.
World 2/ Mar 3.39 56.16 10.75 56.28 10.89 3.14
Apr 3.48 55.74 10.26 55.75 10.61 3.12
United States Mar 0.78 10.27 0.14 9.53 0.86 0.79
Apr 0.78 10.32 0.14 9.44 0.91 0.89
Total Foreign Mar 2.62 45.89 10.62 46.75 10.02 2.35
Apr 2.70 45.42 10.12 46.32 9.70 2.22
Major Exporters 3/ Mar 0.77 19.41 0.31 12.46 7.39 0.64
Apr 0.77 18.97 0.31 12.42 7.00 0.64
Argentina Mar 0.31 8.40 0.00 3.39 5.12 0.20
Apr 0.31 7.95 0.00 3.29 4.75 0.22
Brazil Mar 0.32 8.25 0.06 6.92 1.45 0.26
Apr 0.32 8.25 0.06 6.92 1.45 0.26
European Union Mar 0.15 2.76 0.25 2.16 0.82 0.18
Apr 0.15 2.77 0.25 2.22 0.80 0.16
Major Importers 4/ Mar 0.96 19.18 5.66 24.75 0.18 0.87
Apr 1.08 19.10 5.46 24.52 0.28 0.84
China Mar 0.54 17.02 0.48 17.40 0.10 0.54
Apr 0.54 17.02 0.45 17.25 0.20 0.56
India Mar 0.30 1.58 3.55 5.20 0.00 0.22
Apr 0.43 1.49 3.35 5.10 0.00 0.17
North Africa 5/ Mar 0.12 0.58 1.63 2.15 0.08 0.11
Apr 0.11 0.58 1.66 2.17 0.08 0.11
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, and North Africa. 5/
Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 31
Year and Quarter Beef Pork Red Meat Broiler Turkey Total Red Meat Egg Milk
2/ Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Million Pounds Mil doz Bil lbs
2016 Annual 25,221 24,941 50,387 40,696 5,981 47,226 97,613 8,579 212.4
2017 I 6,300 6,409 12,764 10,233 1,488 11,849 24,613 2,182 53.6
II 6,404 6,137 12,595 10,407 1,482 12,023 24,618 2,187 55.3
III 6,731 6,239 13,023 10,551 1,479 12,167 25,190 2,204 53.5
IV 6,738 6,796 13,591 10,472 1,533 12,139 25,729 2,235 53.1
Annual
Mar Est. 26,173 25,581 51,972 41,662 5,981 48,178 100,151 8,808 215.5
Apr Est. 26,173 25,581 51,972 41,662 5,981 48,178 100,151 8,808 215.5
2018 I 6,475 6,655 13,187 10,400 1,465 11,990 25,177 2,190 54.4
II* 7,055 6,425 13,532 10,575 1,455 12,170 25,702 2,215 56.2
III* 7,020 6,540 13,613 10,750 1,485 12,375 25,988 2,240 54.2
IV* 7,085 7,185 14,326 10,625 1,540 12,300 26,626 2,285 54.2
Annual
Mar Proj. 27,685 26,910 54,811 42,600 5,975 49,115 103,926 8,935 219.0
Apr Proj. 27,635 26,805 54,658 42,350 5,945 48,835 103,493 8,930 219.0
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/
Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale,
National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by
farmers for all milk.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 32
Pork 2016 590 24,956 1,091 26,637 5,239 507 20,891 50.1
2017 Est. Mar 507 25,597 1,116 27,220 5,632 554 21,034 50.1
Apr 507 25,597 1,116 27,220 5,632 554 21,034 50.1
2018 Proj. Mar 554 26,926 1,065 28,545 5,925 635 21,985 52.0
Apr 554Filler
26,821
Filler
1,065Filler
28,440
Filler
5,900Filler
610Filler
21,930
Filler
51.8
Filler
Total Red 2016 1,320 50,480 4,322 56,123 7,801 1,304 47,018 106.8
Meat 5/ 2017 Est. Mar 1,304 52,065 4,362 57,731 8,500 1,246 47,985 108.2
Apr 1,304 52,065 4,362 57,731 8,500 1,246 47,985 108.2
2018 Proj. Mar 1,246 54,904 4,359 60,509 8,958 1,377 50,174 112.4
Apr 1,246Filler
54,751
Filler
4,359Filler
60,356
Filler
8,933Filler
1,338
Filler
50,085
Filler
112.2
Filler
Broiler 2016 832 40,261 131 41,224 6,644 778 33,802 89.7
2017 Est. Mar 778 41,217 126 42,120 6,780 856 34,484 90.9
Apr 778 41,217 126 42,120 6,780 856 34,484 90.9
2018 Proj. Mar 856 42,144 130 43,130 6,950 830 35,350 92.5
Apr 856Filler
41,897
Filler
130Filler
42,883
Filler
6,950Filler
830Filler
35,103
Filler
91.9
Filler
Total 2016 1,041 46,790 184 48,015 7,372 1,065 39,578 107.6
Poultry 6/ 2017 Est. Mar 1,065 47,732 154 48,950 7,531 1,170 40,248 108.6
Apr 1,065 47,732 154 48,950 7,531 1,170 40,248 108.6
2018 Proj. Mar 1,170 48,659 162 49,991 7,730 1,148 41,113 110.1
Apr 1,170Filler
48,381
Filler
162Filler
49,713
Filler
7,720Filler
1,148
Filler
40,845
Filler
109.4
Filler
Red Meat & 2016 2,361 97,270 4,506 104,137 15,173 2,369 86,596 214.4
Poultry 2017 Est. Mar 2,369 99,797 4,515 106,682 16,032 2,416 88,234 216.8
Apr 2,369 99,797 4,515 106,682 16,032 2,416 88,234 216.8
2018 Proj. Mar 2,416 103,563 4,521 110,500 16,688 2,525 91,287 222.4
Apr 2,416 103,132 4,521 110,069 16,653 2,486 90,930 221.5
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/
Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 33
2015 2016 2017 Est. 2017 Est. 2018 Proj. 2018 Proj.
Commodity
Mar Apr Mar Apr
Eggs Million Dozen
Supply
Beginning Stocks 23.3 31.1 27.1 27.1 22.9 22.9
Production 8,052.5 8,578.7 8,807.8 8,807.8 8,935.0 8,930.0
Imports 123.5 121.9 32.3 32.3 32.0 32.0
Total Supply 8,199.3 8,731.7 8,867.2 8,867.2 8,989.9 8,984.9
Use
Exports 313.6 279.0 321.1 321.1 320.0 320.0
Hatching Use 995.6 1,009.6 1,034.5 1,034.5 1,050.0 1,050.0
Ending Stocks 31.1 27.1 22.9 22.9 27.0 27.0
Disappearance
Total 6,858.9 7,416.0 7,488.7 7,488.7 7,592.9 7,587.9
Per Capita (number) 256.2 274.9 275.7 275.7 277.6 277.4
Total
2015 2016 2017 Est. 2017 Est. 2018 Proj. 2018 Proj.
Commodity
Mar Apr Mar Apr
Milk Billion Pounds
Production 208.6 212.4 215.5 215.5 219.0 219.0
Farm Use 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Fat Basis Supply
Beg. Commercial Stocks 10.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 13.5 13.5
Marketings 207.6 211.4 214.5 214.5 218.0 218.0
Imports 5.8 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6
Total Cml. Supply 223.9 230.8 233.2 233.2 237.2 237.1
Fat Basis Use
Commercial Exports 8.5 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.6 9.6
Ending Commercial Stocks 12.3 12.7 13.5 13.5 12.8 12.9
CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Domestic Commercial Use 203.0 209.6 210.4 210.4 214.8 214.7
Skim-solid Basis Supply
Beg. Commercial Stocks 9.4 9.2 9.5 9.5 11.8 11.8
Marketings 207.6 211.4 214.5 214.5 218.0 218.0
Imports 6.0 6.5 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.9
Total Cml. Supply 223.1 227.1 230.0 230.0 235.7 235.7
Skim-solid Basis Use
Commercial Exports 37.3 39.0 40.8 40.8 42.8 43.4
Ending Commercial Stocks 9.2 9.5 11.8 11.8 11.3 11.5
CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Domestic Commercial Use 176.6 178.5 177.5 177.5 181.6 180.9
Total
2015 2016 2017 Est. 2017 Est. 2018 Proj. 2018 Proj.
Commodity
Mar Apr Mar Apr
Product Prices 1/ Dollars Per Pound
Cheese 1.6454 1.6050 1.6344 1.6344 1.545- 1.550-
1.605 1.600
Butter 2.0670 2.0777 2.3303 2.3303 2.210- 2.210-
2.300 2.290
Nonfat Dry Milk 0.9016 0.8292 0.8666 0.8666 0.700- 0.700-
0.750 0.740
Dry Whey 0.3804 0.2875 0.4437 0.4437 0.265- 0.240-
Filler
0.295 0.270
Dollars Per Cwt
Milk Prices 2/
Class III 15.80 14.87 16.17 16.17 14.30- 14.20-
14.90 14.70
Class IV 14.35 13.77 15.16 15.16 13.25- 13.25-
13.95 13.85
All Milk 3/ 17.13 16.30 17.63 17.63 15.75- 15.60-
16.35 16.10
1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average dairy product prices for class price
computations. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk
prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices
received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation.
April 2018
WASDE - 576 - 35
The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and
other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports
issued by USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on
how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive
database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated
monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently.
Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE
report are provided by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the Foreign
Agricultural Service. PECAD is located at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/.
Subscribers are notified through GovDelivery when the monthly World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is available.
WASDE Briefing Slides: The briefing slides which accompany today’s WASDE report will
be available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
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