Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 18 views

    CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily - : Analysts' View

    Uploaded by

    d_stepien43098
    Industrial output and retail sales growth was mostly in line with expectations. Data was neutral for FX and bond market that are driven by global events. We currently see 10Y at 3.4% at the end of the year and stronger zloty (4.06 vs. EUR)

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily - : Analysts' View

    Uploaded by

    d_stepien43098
    18 views4 pages
    Industrial output and retail sales growth was mostly in line with expectations. Data was neutral for FX and bond market that are driven by global events. We currently see 10Y at 3.4% at the end of the year and stronger zloty (4.06 vs. EUR)

    Original Title

    CEE_Daily_-_20150619.pdf

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Industrial output and retail sales growth was mostly in line with expectations. Data was neutral for FX and bond market that are driven by global events. We currently see 10Y at 3.4% at the end of the year and stronger zloty (4.06 vs. EUR)

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    18 views4 pages

    CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily - : Analysts' View

    Uploaded by

    d_stepien43098
    Industrial output and retail sales growth was mostly in line with expectations. Data was neutral for FX and bond market that are driven by global events. We currently see 10Y at 3.4% at the end of the year and stronger zloty (4.06 vs. EUR)

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily - 19-Jun-15

    Analysts View:
    PL Macro: Yesterdays data on industrial output and retail sales growth was
    mostly in line with expectations. Industry expanded 2.8% y/y in May (vs
    consensus at 3.3% y/y) and retail sales went up 1.8% y/y (vs. consensus at
    1.7% y/y). Although the growth seems to have lost momentum from the
    beginning of the year, development of monthly indicators suggest similar pace
    of growth as was in 1Q15 (our point estimate of GDP is at 3.3% in 2Q15 vs.
    3.6% y/y in 1Q15). Data was neutral for FX and bond market that are driven by
    global events ongoing Greece negotiations and aftermath of FOMC meeting.
    We expect that slightly dovish tone of FOMC takes off some pressure from
    yields that may be further reduced in case there is positive solution to Greek
    situation. We currently see 10Y at 3.4% at the end of the year and stronger
    zloty (4.06 vs. EUR).
    HU Bonds: This weeks auctions sent HTB yields to new lows. The Debt
    Management Agency (KK) offered and issued HUF 40bn worth of 3M and
    12M HTBs with average yields of 1.05% on Tuesday and Thursday. The
    floating rate note was well-bid as well. The KK thus issued HUF 10bn, as
    planned. Demand for both short-dated and long-term bonds has been strong
    so far this year and we do not expect the KK to run into any difficulties in the
    primary market. HTB yields are expected to drop below 1% next week, thanks
    to the broadly expected rate cut. In line with the market consensus, we expect
    the MPC to cut the key rate to 1.5% on Tuesday. The wording of the statement
    will be crucial in terms of whether the MPC gives any indication on if it will
    carry on with the easing cycle in July. We believe that the EURHUF may
    strengthen to 310 by the end of June. However, we see the currency pair
    heading north by the end of this year.
    RO Bonds: In line with their initial target, the debt managers sold RON 400mn
    in three-month T-bills. Average yields moved marginally higher than the level
    paid in March (1.22% vs. 1.2%). The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.2. So, the
    demand was almost double the raised amount. With a prospective negative
    inflation rate in 2H15, the central bank could continue its monetary easing
    cycle by reducing minimum reserves in small steps. Additional liquidity may
    offer some support to the short end of the yield curve, while medium- and longterm maturities will be driven mainly by external risks. We estimate the 5-year
    ROMGB yield at 3.1% in December 2015 and the inflation rate at 0.1% y/y.

    FX and MM rates
    Exchange
    rates

    % change (close)
    spot

    d/d

    w/w

    EUR/CZK

    27.23

    -0.1

    -0.2

    EUR/HUF

    313.2

    0.4

    0.3

    EUR/PLN

    4.176

    0.5

    0.7

    EUR/RON

    4.490

    0.0

    0.2

    EUR/HRK

    7.575

    -0.1

    0.1

    EUR/RSD

    120.53

    0.0

    0.2

    USD/TRY

    2.715

    0.2

    0.1

    EUR/USD

    1.134

    0.2

    0.7

    Note: negative changes mean appreciation of LCY

    3M offer rate
    (fixing)

    change (bps)
    last

    d-d

    w-w

    CZK

    0.31

    HUF

    1.50

    PLN

    1.61

    RON

    1.02

    HRK

    0.67

    -2

    -5

    TRY

    11.08

    EUR

    -0.01

    Bond Yields and CDS spreads


    YTM (mid)

    current

    d-d

    w-w

    CZ3YGB

    0.01

    -7

    CZ9YGB

    0.85

    -4

    -3

    SK3YGB

    0.13

    13

    13

    SK10YGB

    1.42

    14

    HU5YGB

    3.11

    -1

    12

    HU10YGB

    4.10

    -4

    16

    PL3YGB

    2.29

    -3

    PL9YGB

    3.14

    -10

    RO4YGB

    2.42

    HR3YGB

    2.66

    -7

    -12

    HR6YGB

    3.05

    -17

    -18

    Source: Bloomberg

    CDS (bid, bps)

    current

    d-d

    Czech Republic

    51

    w-w
    1

    Hungary

    160

    15

    Poland

    77

    Romania

    133

    Croatia

    271

    Slovakia

    50

    Turkey

    229

    -7

    Source: Bloomberg

    Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Groups investment recommendations. Read the
    disclaimer on page 4 of this document.
    Erste Group CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily

    Page 1

    Selected government bonds


    Benchmark
    bonds

    Czech
    Republic

    Slovakia

    Hungary

    Poland

    Romania

    Croatia

    Domestic
    Rating

    Description

    Eurobond

    Current
    (mid)

    change (bps)
    d-d

    w-w

    Rating

    Current
    (mid)

    Description

    change (bps)
    d-d

    w-w

    AA-

    CZGB 4 04/11/17

    0.01

    -7

    AA-

    CZECH 5 06/11/18

    EUR

    0.25

    -1

    -1

    AA-

    CZGB 5 04/11/19

    0.27

    -1

    AA-

    CZECH 3 5/8 04/14/21

    EUR

    0.72

    AA-

    CZGB 5.7 05/25/24

    0.85

    -4

    -3

    AA-

    CZECH 3 7/8 05/24/22

    EUR

    0.89

    SLOVGB 3 1/2 02/24/16

    0.13

    13

    13

    SLOVAK 4 3/8 05/15/17

    EUR

    0.05

    -1

    -1

    SLOVGB 4.35 10/14/25

    1.42

    14

    SLOVAK 4 03/26/21

    EUR

    0.43

    -1

    -4

    BB+

    HGB 2 1/2 06/22/18

    2.14

    -1

    -2

    BB+

    REPHUN 4 3/8 07/04/17

    EUR

    1.04

    -2

    -2

    BB+

    HGB 3 1/2 06/24/20

    3.11

    -1

    12

    BB+

    REPHUN 5 3/4 06/11/18

    EUR

    1.14

    -5

    BB+

    HGB 5 1/2 06/24/25

    4.10

    -4

    16

    BB+

    REPHUN 3 7/8 02/24/20

    EUR

    1.53

    -1

    A-

    POLGB 4 3/4 10/25/16

    1.74

    -2

    A-

    POLAND 3 3/4 03/29/17

    EUR

    0.24

    -1

    A-

    POLGB 2 1/2 07/25/18

    2.29

    -3

    A-

    POLAND 4.2 04/15/20

    EUR

    0.71

    A-

    POLGB 4 10/25/23

    3.14

    -10

    A-

    POLAND 5 1/4 01/20/25

    EUR

    1.81

    BBB-

    ROMGB 5.9 07/26/17

    1.91

    BBB-

    ROMANI 6 1/2 06/18/18

    EUR

    0.76

    -2

    BBB-

    ROMGB 5.6 11/28/18

    2.42

    BBB-

    ROMANI 4 5/8 09/18/20

    EUR

    1.88

    -1

    BBB-

    ROMGB 5.85 04/26/23

    4.00

    30

    BBB-

    BB

    CROATE 6 1/4 11/25/17

    2.33

    -2

    -10

    BB

    CROATI 5 7/8 07/09/18

    EUR

    2.57

    -5

    BB

    CROATE 5 1/4 07/10/18

    2.66

    -7

    -12

    BB

    CROATI 3 7/8 05/30/22

    EUR

    3.83

    -4

    BB

    CROATE 6 3/4 03/05/20

    3.05

    -17

    -18

    BB

    Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Groups investment recommendations. Read the
    disclaimer on page 4 of this document.
    Erste Group CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily

    Page 2

    Contacts
    Group Research
    Head of Group Research
    Friedrich Mostbck, CEFA
    Major Markets & Credit Research
    Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA
    Ralf Burchert (Agency Analyst)
    Hans Engel (Senior Analyst International Equities)
    Christian Enger, CFA (Covered Bonds)
    Margarita Grushanina (Economist AT, CHF)
    Alihan Karadagoglu (Senior Analyst Corporate Bonds)
    Peter Kaufmann, CFA (Corporate Bonds)
    Stephan Lingnau (International Equities)
    Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch (Covered Bonds)
    Rainer Singer (Senior Economist Euro, US)
    Bernadett Povazsai-Rmhild (Corporate Bonds)
    Gerald Walek, CFA (Economist Euro)
    Katharina Bhm-Klamt (Quantitative Analyst Euro)
    Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE
    Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI)
    Zoltan Arokszallasi (Fixed income)
    Katarzyna Rzentarzewska (Fixed income)
    CEE Equity Research
    Head: Henning Ekuchen
    Franz Hrl, CFA (Basic Resources, Real Estate)
    Daniel Lion, CIIA (Technology, Ind. Goods&Services)
    Thomas Unger; CFA (Banks, Insurance)
    Vera Sutedja, CFA (Telecom)
    Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma)
    Martina Valenta, MBA (Real Estate)
    Editor Research CEE
    Brett Aarons
    Deniz Gurgen
    Research Croatia/Serbia
    Head: Mladen Dodig (Equity)
    Head: Alen Kovac (Fixed income)
    Anto Augustinovic (Equity)
    Ivana Rogic (Fixed income)
    Milan Deskar-Skrbic (Fixed income)
    Davor Spoljar, CFA (Equity)
    Research Czech Republic
    Head: David Navratil (Fixed income)
    Head: Petr Bartek (Equity)
    Vaclav Kminek (Media)
    Jiri Polansky (Fixed income)
    Dana Hajkova (Fixed income)
    Martin Krajhanzl (Equity)
    Lubos Mokras (Fixed income)
    Jan Sedina (Fixed income)
    Research Hungary
    Head: Jzsef Mir (Equity)
    Gergely rmssy (Fixed income)
    Andrs Nagy (Equity)
    Vivien Barczel (Fixed income)
    Tams Pletser, CFA (Oil&Gas)
    Research Poland
    Head: Magdalena Komaracka, CFA (Equity)
    Marek Czachor (Equity)
    Tomasz Duda (Equity)
    Adam Rzepecki (Equity)
    Ludomir Zalewski (Equity)
    Research Romania
    Chief Economist, Director: Radu Craciun
    Head: Mihai Caruntu (Equity)
    Head: Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income)
    Chief Analyst: Eugen Sinca (Fixed income)
    Dorina Cobiscan (Fixed Income)
    Raluca Florea, CFA (Equity)
    Marina Alexandra Spataru (Equity)
    Research Turkey
    Head: Can Yurtcan
    Evrim Dairecioglu (Equity)
    M. Grkem Gker (Equity)

    +43 (0)5 0100 11902


    +43 (0)5 0100 11909
    +43 (0)5 0100 16314
    +43 (0)5 0100 19835
    +43 (0)5 0100 84052
    +43 (0)5 0100 11957
    +43 (0)5 0100 19633
    +43 (0)5 0100 11183
    +43 (0)5 0100 16574
    +43 (0)5 0100 19632
    +43 (0)5 0100 17331
    +43 (0)5 0100 17203
    +43 (0)5 0100 16360
    +43 (0)5 0100 19632
    +43 (0)5 0100 17357
    +43 (0)5 0100 18781
    +43 (0)5 0100 17356
    +43 (0)5 0100 19634
    +43 (0)5 0100 18506
    +43 (0)5 0100 17420
    +43 (0)5 0100 17344
    +43 (0)5 0100 11905
    +43 (0)5 0100 17343
    +43 (0)5 0100 11913
    +420 956 711 014
    +90 212 371 2538
    +381 11 22 09 178
    +385 72 37 1383
    +385 72 37 2833
    +385 72 37 2419
    +385 72 37 1349
    +385 72 37 2825
    +420 224 995 439
    +420 224 995 227
    +420 224 995 289
    +420 224 995 192
    +420 224 995 172
    +420 224 995 434
    +420 224 995 456
    +420 224 995 391
    +361 235 5131
    +361 373 2830
    +361 235 5132
    +361 373 2026
    +361 235 5135
    +48 22 330 6256
    +48 22 330 6254
    +48 22 330 6253
    +48 22 330 6252
    +48 22 330 6251
    +40 3735 10424
    +40 3735 10427
    +40 3735 10433
    +40 3735 10435
    +40 3735 10436
    +40 3735 10428
    +40 3735 10429
    +90 212 371 2540
    +90 212 371 2535
    +90 212 371 2534

    Sezai Saklaroglu (Equity)


    Nilufer Sezgin (Fixed income)
    Ilknur Kocaer (Equity)
    Research Slovakia
    Head: Maria Valachyova, (Fixed income)
    Katarina Muchova (Fixed income)

    +90 212 371 2533


    +90 212 371 2536
    +90 212 371 2531
    +421 2 4862 4185
    +421 2 4862 4762

    Treasury - Erste Bank Vienna


    Saving Banks & Sales Retail
    Head: Thomas Schaufler
    Equity Retail Sales
    Head: Kurt Gerhold
    Fixed Income & Certificate Sales
    Head: Uwe Kolar
    Treasury Domestic Sales
    Head: Markus Kaller
    Corporate Sales AT
    Head: Christian Skopek

    +43 (0)5 0100 84225


    +43 (0)5 0100 84232
    +43 (0)5 0100 83214
    +43 (0)5 0100 84239
    +43 (0)5 0100 84146

    Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales


    Institutional Sales
    Head: Manfred Neuwirth
    Bank and Institutional Sales
    Head: Jrgen Niemeier
    Institutional Sales AT, GER, LUX, CH
    Head: Thomas Almen
    Bernd Bollhof
    Rene Klasen
    Marc Pichler
    Dirk Seefeld
    Charles-Henry de Fontenilles
    Bank and Savingsbanks Sales
    Head: Marc Friebertshuser
    Fabian Btger
    Mathias Gindele
    Andreas Goll
    Ulrich Inhofner
    Sven Kienzle
    Jrg Moritzen
    Michael Schmotz
    Bernd Thaler
    Klaus Vosseler
    Institutional Sales CEE and International
    Head: Jaromir Malak
    Central Bank and International Sales
    Head: Margit Hraschek
    Christian Kssler
    Institutional Sales PL and CIS
    Pawel Kielek
    Marcin Chmielewski (Fixed Income)
    Institutional Sales Slovakia
    Head: Peter Kniz
    Sarlota Sipulova
    Institutional Sales Czech Republic
    Head: Ondrej Cech
    Milan Bartos
    Radek Chupik
    Pavel Zdichynec
    Institutional Sales Croatia
    Head: Antun Buric
    Natalija Zujic
    eljko Pavii
    Institutional Sales Hungary
    Norbert Siklosi
    Attila Hollo
    Institutional Sales Romania
    Head: Ciprian Mitu
    Institutional Solutions and PM
    Head: Zachary Carvell
    Brigitte Mayr
    Mikhail Roshal
    Christopher Lampe-Traupe

    +43 (0)5 0100 84250


    +49 (0)30 8105800 5503
    +43 (0)5 0100 84323
    +49 (0)30 8105800 5525
    +49 (0)30 8105800 5521
    +43 (0)5 0100 84118
    +49 (0)30 8105800 5523
    +43 (0)50100 84115
    +49 (0)711 810400 5540
    +49 (0) 151 53810580
    +49 (0)711 810400 5562
    +49 (0)711 810400 5561
    +43 (0)50100 85544
    +49 (0)711 810400 5541
    +49 (0)30 8105800 5581
    +43 (0)5 0100 85542
    +43 (0)5 0100 85583
    +49 (0)711 810400 5560
    +43 (0)50100 84254
    +43 (0)5 0100 84117
    +43 (0)5 0100 84116
    +48 22 544 5610
    +43 50100 85611
    +421 2 4862 5624
    +421 2 4862 5629
    +420 2 2499 5577
    +420 2 2499 5562
    +420 2 2499 5565
    +420 2 2499 5590
    +385 (0)7237 2439
    +385 (0)7237 1638
    +385 (0)72 37 14 94
    +36 1 2355 842
    +36 1 2355 846
    +40 373 516 532
    +43 (0)50100 83308
    +43 (0)50100 84781
    +43 (0)50100 84787
    +49 (0)30 8105800 5507

    Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Groups investment recommendations. Read the
    disclaimer on page 4 of this document.
    Erste Group CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily

    Page 3

    Erste Group Bank AG


    1010 Wien, Brsegasse
    Telefon: +43 (0)5 0100 - interior 11902
    14/DG1
    Disclaimer
    This publication has been prepared by EG Research. This report is for information purposes only.
    Publications in the United Kingdom are available only to investment professionals, not private customers, as defined by the rules of the Financial
    Services Authority. Individuals who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on it.
    The information contained herein has been obtained from public sources believed by EGB to be reliable, but which may not have been
    independently justified. No guarantees, representations or warranties are made as to its accuracy, completeness or suitability for any purpose.
    This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or any other action and will not form the
    basis or a part of any contract.
    Neither EGB nor any of its affiliates, its respective directors, officers or employers accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for
    any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Any opinion, estimate or
    projection expressed in this publication reflects the current judgement of the author(s) on the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the
    opinions of EGB and are subject to change without notice. EGB has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a
    reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently
    becomes inaccurate.
    The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. No assurance can be given that any financial instrument or issuer
    described herein would yield favourable investment results.
    EGB, its affiliates, principals or employees may have a long or short position or may transact in the financial instrument(s) referred to herein or may
    trade in such financial instruments with other customers on a principal basis. EGB may act as a market maker in the financial instruments or
    companies discussed herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. EGB AG may act upon or
    use the information or conclusion contained in this report before it is distributed to other persons.
    This report is subject to the copyright of EGB. No part of this publication may be copied or redistributed to persons or firms other than the authorised
    recipient without the prior written consent of EGB.
    By accepting this report, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
    Copyright: 2014 EGB AG. All rights reserved.

    Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Groups investment recommendations. Read the
    disclaimer on page 4 of this document.
    Erste Group CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily

    Page 4

    You might also like