World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
ISSN: 1554-9089
and Demand Estimates
Office of the Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Chief Economist Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE - 593 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board October 10, 2019
WHEAT: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total
use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million
based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30. Projected imports are
lowered 15 million bushels to 120 million on a slow pace to date. The NASS Grain Stocks
report raised 2018/19 ending stocks 8 million bushels and estimated first quarter 2019/20
stocks at 2,385 million bushels, down fractionally from the previous year. These stocks imply
first quarter feed and residual use is similar to last year. Annual 2019/20 feed and residual
use is lowered 30 million bushels to 140 million but remain above last year’s revised 89.8
million. Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 950 million on reduced
competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are projected at 1,043 million
bushels, up 29 million from the previous month, and the season-average farm price is
lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70.
Global 2019/20 wheat supplies are raised fractionally with decreased production offset by
higher beginning stocks. World production is lowered 0.3 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton
cut to Australia’s crop on further drought effects. The United States is lowered 0.5 million
tons, and Canada and Serbia are each reduced 0.3 million tons. Partly offsetting are
production increases of 1.0 million tons for the EU and 0.7 million tons for Turkmenistan, both
on updated harvest reports. Projected global exports for 2019/20 are lowered 1.2 million
tons led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia reflecting their smaller crop. Total imports
are decreased 1.1 million tons with the United States, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, and
Kyrgyzstan accounting for most of the decline. World wheat consumption is reduced 1.1
million tons primarily on a 0.8-million-ton reduction in U.S. feed and residual use. With
supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 1.3 million tons to a record
287.8 million.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly lower production,
reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, greater feed and residual use, and lower ending
stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.779 billion bushels, down 20 million as a decline in
harvested area more than offsets an increased yield forecast. Corn supplies are forecast
down sharply from last month on a reduced crop and lower beginning stocks based on the
September 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels reflecting
smaller supplies and U.S. price competitiveness. Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million
bushels based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information
Administration during September. Projected feed and residual use is up 125 million bushels
based on indicated disappearance during 2018/19. Corn ending stocks for 2019/20 are
lowered 261 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised
20 cents to $3.80 per bushel.
WASDE-593-2
Grain sorghum production is forecast lower from last month, with a 0.4-bushel-per-acre
decline in yield to 73.9 bushels per acre and a reduction in harvested area. Barley and oat
production estimates are updated based on the September 30 Small Grains report.
Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is forecast virtually unchanged at 1,396.7 million
tons. The 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, increased trade, and
higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly lower as
an increase for Russia is more than offset by declines for Egypt and Syria. The projected
corn yield for Russia is raised based on reported harvest results to date.
Corn exports are raised for Russia, with a more than offsetting decline for the United States.
For 2018/19, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March
2019 based on record large shipments during the month of September. From July to
September Brazil has exported close to 20 million tons of corn, nearly 50 percent above the
previous high for the time period, with large shipments to important U.S. markets such as
Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Colombia. For 2019/20, corn imports are lowered for
Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, and Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are
higher, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil, Canada, and the EU. Global corn stocks, at
302.6 million, are down 3.7 million from last month.
RICE: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for increased supplies, unchanged
domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised as NASS
increased the all rice production forecast by 1.3 million cwt to 188.6 million, all on a higher
yield. The all rice yield is forecast at 7,616 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the previous
forecast. Higher yields for Arkansas, California, and Texas more than offset a lower yield for
Louisiana. Projected 2019/20 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.3 million cwt to 37.1 million,
still down 17 percent from last year. The projected 2019/20 all rice season-average farm
price is reduced $0.20 per cwt to $13.00, compared to $12.00 for 2018/19.
Global 2019/20 rice supplies are raised by 3.6 million tons to 669.6 million, mainly on higher
projected production for India and Egypt. India’s production is raised by 2.0 million tons to
114.0 million, primarily based on the government’s First Advance Estimate of Production.
Egypt’s production increased 1.3 million tons to 4.3 million on greater harvested area than
previously estimated. World 2019/20 consumption is raised by 1.3 million tons to 494.5
million, led by increased expected use in Egypt on higher domestic supplies. Global 2019/20
trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 45.9 million, mainly on higher exports by India with
greater supplies. India is expected to remain the leading global rice exporter for the sixth
consecutive year. Projected world ending stocks are up 2.4 million tons to a record 175.1
million with India and Egypt accounting for most of the increase.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 107.9 million tons, down 2.3
million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset
by higher canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is forecast at 3.6 billion bushels,
down 83 million, mainly on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 46.9 bushels per
acre, down 1 bushel from the September forecast. Harvested area is reduced slightly to 75.6
million acres. Soybean supplies for 2019/20 are forecast at 4.5 billion bushels down 175
million on lower production and beginning stocks. With a small increase in soybean crush,
ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 180 million.
WASDE-593-3
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, up 50
cents reflecting smaller supplies. The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short
ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 30.0 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 574.8 million tons, down 4.6 million from
last month on lower soybean, sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and peanut production. Global
soybean production is projected at 339.0 million tons, down 2.4 million to a 4-year low,
mainly reflecting lower production for the United States. Global rapeseed production is
forecast lower on reductions for Canada, Australia, the EU, and the United States. Canadian
rapeseed production is reduced on lower yield prospects resulting from an unseasonably
heavy snow and a season-ending freeze. Other production changes include lower
sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan and Brazil,
and higher cottonseed production for India. With lower global oilseed supplies only partly
offset by reduced crush, global oilseed stocks are projected at 109.8 million tons, down 4.6
million. Soybeans account for most of the change with lower stocks in the United States only
partly offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil.
SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2019/20 is projected at 5.055 million short tons, raw
value (STRV), up 50,000 on less expected production for September of 2018/19 now
expected to be produced during 2019/20. Beet sugar production for 2018/19 is
correspondingly reduced by 50,000 STRV to 4.907 million.
Raw sugar TRQ imports for the 2018/19 quota year eligible for entry until October 15 are
estimated at 1.141 million STRV, implying a shortfall of 57,088. The amount of this sugar
entered by September 30 was 24,018 STRV less than expected last month; 22,046 STRV of
it is now projected to enter in October. Expected imports of 17,907 STRV corresponding to
calendar year FTA TRQs are shifted from the July-September quarter to the October-
December quarter and into the 2019/20 fiscal year. Re-export imports for 2018/19 are
estimated at 437,682 STRV, up 17,682 over last month. High-tier tariff imports are estimated
at 92,679 STRV, up 2,679 over last month.
Deliveries for human consumption for 2018/19 are decreased by 50,000 STRV to 12.125
million based on a slower-than-expected pace. Corresponding deliveries for 2019/20 are
decreased in line by the same amount. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are estimated at 1.725
million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.04 percent. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are
projected at 1.784 million STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.52 percent.
For 2018/19, Mexico sugar deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 95,977 metric
tons, actual weight (MT) to 4.140 million based on the slow pace through the end of August
reported by CONADESUCA. Deliveries to IMMEX are likewise reduced by 55,000 MT to
425,000. Exports are increased 14,203 MT based on CONADESUCA reporting. Imports,
mainly for IMMEX, are increased by 16,189 MT. Ending stocks are residually estimated at
1.148 million MT of which an estimated 273,168 are required to be exported in 2019/20
before December 31 per provisions administered by the Fideicomiso Maestro para la
Exportación de Excedentes de los Ingenios (FIMAE).
For 2019/20, Mexico sugar production is projected at 6.065 million MT, a reduction of
135,000 based on updated reports of the severity of drought conditions in several producing
areas. Total sweetener deliveries are projected at 5.719 million MT based on the same per
WASDE-593-4
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month, as higher broiler production more than offsets slightly
lower beef and turkey production. Pork production is unchanged. Hatchery and slaughter
data supports an increase in broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the
previous month on a slower-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter. The turkey forecast
is lowered on a slower pace of third-quarter production. The 2019 egg production forecast is
raised slightly.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month on higher
expected pork and broiler production. Beef production is unchanged for the year, although a
slower pace of placements in third-quarter 2019 is expected to result in lower first-quarter
beef production, but higher second quarter production. Pork production is forecast higher, as
expected growth in pigs per litter points toward increased availability of slaughter hogs in
2020. The broiler production forecast is raised from the previous month on expectations of
continued expansion of broiler flocks. Turkey production forecasts are reduced from the
previous month on higher feed prices. The egg production forecast is raised, largely
reflecting increased hatching egg production.
The 2019 beef import forecast is unchanged, but exports are reduced, reflecting recent trade
data. For 2020, imports are reduced, reflecting tighter supplies from Oceania and strong
demand for beef by competing importers. Exports are raised on firm global demand and
tightness in supplies from Oceania. The 2019 and 2020 pork export forecasts are raised
from the previous month on recent trade data and strong demand U.S. pork products. The
2019 broiler export forecast is lowered, reflecting recent trade data, but no change is made to
the 2020 export forecast. Turkey trade export forecasts are raised.
The cattle price forecast for 2019 is raised on current price strength; this increase in price
strength was carried into early 2020. Hog price forecasts are reduced for 2019 and 2020 on
larger supplies of hogs. The 2019 broiler price forecast is raised on recent price strength but
is reduced for 2020 as broiler meat supplies are raised. The 2019 turkey price forecast is
higher on recent gains in prices, but the 2020 forecast is unchanged. The 2019 egg price
forecast is lowered on current prices, but 2020 egg price forecasts are unchanged.
Milk production forecasts for 2019 are raised on higher cow numbers and stronger growth in
milk per cow. For 2020, expected continued gains in milk per cow supported an increase in
the milk production forecast.
Annual forecasts of imports on both a fat and skims-solids basis are unchanged for 2019
reflecting current trade data, but forecasts for 2020 are lowered as the recently announced
additional tariffs on a number of EU dairy products are expected to result in reduced imports.
Fat basis export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are reduced from last month on continued
WASDE-593-5
competitive pressure on U.S. cheese exports. The 2019 skim-solids basis export forecast is
lowered on weaker expected exports of cheese and skim and nonfat dry milk (SMP/NDM).
However, increased strength in SMP/NDM sales in 2020 due to strong global demand is
expected to more than offset continued weakness in cheese exports. The 2020 skim-solids
basis export forecast is raised.
For 2019, cheese and NDM prices are raised from the previous month, but price forecasts for
butter and whey are reduced. The Class III price is raised from last month as the higher
cheese price more than offsets the lower whey price; the Class IV price is raised as the
higher NDM price more than offsets the lower butter price. For 2020, cheese and NDM
prices are raised from the previous month, but the price forecast for butter is reduced. The
whey price is unchanged. As a result, the Class III price forecast is higher, but the Class IV
price is lowered, as the higher NDM price is more than offset by the lower butter price. The
2019 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.40; for 2020 the price is unchanged at $18.85 per
cwt.
COTTON: The 2019/20 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower
production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1
percent, to 21.7 million bales, largely the result of a reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use
and exports are unchanged from last month, and ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales.
At 7.0 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2019/20 are projected at 36 percent of use,
compared with 27 percent in 2018/19. The 2019/20 season-average price for upland cotton
is forecast at 58 cents per pound, unchanged from last month and 12.5 cents lower than in
2018/19.
The 2019/20 global cotton supply and demand forecasts show little overall change from last
month. World production is 130,000 bales lower as declines for Brazil, Pakistan, Australia,
and the United States more than offset a 1-million-bale increase in India. Global
consumption is 130,000 bales lower than September’s forecast and the projection for world
trade in 2019/20 is reduced 300,000 bales. Lower expected imports for China and Vietnam
more than offset increases for Pakistan and Turkey. Exports for Australia and Brazil are also
lower. World ending stocks in 2019/20 are now forecast at 83.7 million bales, virtually
unchanged from the September forecast but 3.0 million bales higher than in 2018/19.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Acting-Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
ROBERT JOHANSSON
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
WASDE-593-6
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S
Page
Highlights ................................................................................................................. 1
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees ...................................................... 6
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains .................................................................... 8
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton .................................................................... 9
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................... 10
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 11
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class ....................................................................... 11
U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use .................................................................. 12
U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ......................................................... 13
U.S. Rice Supply & Use ......................................................................................... 14
U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ............................................................. 15
U.S. Sugar Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 16
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use .............................................................................. 16
U.S. Cotton Supply & Use ..................................................................................... 17
World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................... 18
World Coarse Grains Supply & Use ...................................................................... 20
World Corn Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 22
World Rice Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 24
World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................... 26
World Soybean Supply & Use ............................................................................... 28
World Soybean Meal Supply & Use ....................................................................... 29
World Soybean Oil Supply & Use .......................................................................... 30
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production ............................................................ 31
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products............................................................. 31
U.S. Meats Supply and Use ................................................................................... 32
U.S. Egg Supply & Use.......................................................................................... 33
U.S. Milk Supply and Use ...................................................................................... 33
U.S. Dairy Prices ................................................................................................... 34
Reliability Tables ................................................................................................... 35
Related USDA Reports .......................................................................................... 38
Metric Conversion Factors ..................................................................................... 38
Electronic Access and Subscriptions ...................................................................... 40
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 8
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports).
4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes
millet and mixed grains).
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 9
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice.
5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to
world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 10
Foreign 3/ Output
Total
Supply Trade
Total
Us e 2/
Ending
Stocks
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 11
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 12
CORN
September October
Million Acres
Area Planted 90.2 89.1 90.0 89.9
Area Harvested 82.7 81.7 82.0 81.8
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 176.6 176.4 168.2 168.4
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 2,293 2,140 2,445 2,114
Production 14,609 14,420 13,799 13,779
Imports 36 28 50 50
Supply, Total 16,939 16,588 16,295 15,944
Feed and Residual 5,304 5,618 5,175 5,300
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ 7,057 6,791 6,880 6,815
Ethanol & by-products 3/ 5,605 5,376 5,450 5,400
Domestic, Total 12,361 12,409 12,055 12,115
Exports 2,438 2,065 2,050 1,900
Use, Total 14,798 14,474 14,105 14,015
Ending Stocks 2,140 2,114 2,190 1,929
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ 3.36 3.61 3.60 3.80
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for
barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the
Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to
produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-
year weighted average price received by farmers.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 13
BARLEY
September October
OATS
September October
Note: Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley
and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 14
LONG-GRAIN RICE
September October
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not
included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2015/16-2.9; 2016/17-3.5; 2017/18-3.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and
estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and
milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice
produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice
are estimated. 9/ The medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is
not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may
differ. For example, the average difference between the preliminary California SAFP forecast and the final price has averaged $0.98 per cwt from 2014/15-2017/18,
with a high of $3.50 per cwt in 2017/18 and a low of -$0.20 per cwt in 2015/16. 10/ Marketing year beginning October 1.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 15
Million Acres
Area Planted 90.2 89.2 76.7 76.5
Area Harvested 89.5 87.6 75.9 75.6
Filler
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 49.3 50.6 47.9 46.9
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 302 438 1,005 913
Production 4,412 4,428 3,633 3,550
Imports 22 14 20 20
Supply, Total 4,735 4,880 4,658 4,483
Crushings 2,055 2,092 2,115 2,120
Exports 2,134 1,748 1,775 1,775
Seed 104 89 96 96
Residual 5 39 32 32
Use, Total 4,297 3,967 4,018 4,023
Ending Stocks 438 913 640 460
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ 9.33 8.48 8.50 9.00
Total
SOYBEAN OIL
September October
Million Pounds
Beginning Stocks 1,711 1,995 1,725 1,710
Production 4/ 23,772 24,290 24,535 24,590
Imports 335 400 450 450
Supply, Total 25,819 26,685 26,710 26,750
Domestic Disappearance 21,380 22,950 23,500 23,500
Biodiesel 3/ 7,134 8,000 8,600 8,500
Food, Feed & other Industrial 14,247 14,950 14,900 15,000
Exports 2,443 2,025 1,725 1,725
Use, Total 23,823 24,975 25,225 25,225
Ending stocks 1,995 1,710 1,485 1,525
Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 30.04 28.26 29.50 30.00
Total
SOYBEAN MEAL
September October
Filler 1 2 3 4
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for
soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers;
oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made
from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 2,092 million bushels
for 2018/19 and 2,120 million bushels for 2019/20.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 16
Exports 170 35 35 35
Deliveries 12,185 12,250 12,305 12,255
Food 12,048 12,125 12,200 12,150
Other 6/ 137 125 105 105
Miscellaneous 82 0 0 0
Total Use 12,438 12,285 12,340 12,290
Ending Stocks 2,008 1,725 1,666 1,784
Stocks to Use Ratio 16.1 14.0 13.5 14.5
Total
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Data and projections correspond to category components from "Sweetener Market Data"
(SMD). 2/ Production projections for 2018/19 and 2019/20 are based on Crop Production and processor projections where
appropriate. 3/ For 2018/19, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall (57) and for 2019/20 (99). 4/ Composed of sugar under the re-
export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Imports from Mexico; and high-tier tariff sugar and syrups not otherwise
specified -- for 2018/19 (93) and 2019/20 (70). 6/ Transfers accompanying deliveries for sugar-containing products to be
exported (SCP) and polyhydric alcohol manufacture (POLY), and deliveries for livestock feed and ethanol. Total refiner
license transfers for SCP and POLY inclusive of WASDE-reported deliveries: 2017/18 -- 278; estimated 2018/19 -- 324;
projected 2019/20 -- 340.
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
Beginning Ending
Stocks Production Imports Domestic 2/ Exports Stocks
1/ HFCS consumption by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): 2017/18 = 1,593; Estimated Oct-Aug 2018 = 1,461;
Projected 2018/19 = 1,520; Estimated Oct-Aug 2019 = 1,401; Projected 2019/20 = 1,520. Footnote source for estimate:
Comite Nacional para el Desarollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes deliveries for consumption, Mexico's
products export program (IMMEX), and Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments. IMMEX: 2018/19 (425
est); 2019/20 (425 proj). Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments: 2018/19 (0), 2019/20 (0).
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 17
Pounds
Yield per Harvested Acre 905 864 839 833
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 2.75 4.20 4.85 4.85
Production 20.92 18.37 21.86 21.71
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 23.68 22.57 26.72 26.56
Domestic Use 3.23 2.98 3.00 3.00
Exports, Total 16.28 14.76 16.50 16.50
Use, Total 19.50 17.74 19.50 19.50
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.02 0.02 0.06
Ending Stocks 4.20 4.85 7.20 7.00
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 68.6 70.5 58.0 58.0
Total
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 18
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports
and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and
reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine. 5/ Egypt, the European
Union, Japan, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and South Korea. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 23
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and
exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine. 5/ Egypt, the European Union,
Japan, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and South Korea. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Thailand, and Vietnam.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 24
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic
includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma,
India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Bangladesh, China, Nigeria, European Union, Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi
Arabia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 25
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.
Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences
in some countries. 4/ Burma, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Bangladesh, China, Nigeria, European Union, Philippines, Cote
d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi
Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 26
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/
Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the
difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt
and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed,
includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 27
Total Foreign Sep 75.95 103.04 43.28 118.74 26.84 0.13 76.55
Oct 75.88 103.07 42.90 118.61 26.41 0.13 76.69
Major Exporters 4/ Sep 29.29 56.69 2.26 33.96 22.93 0.02 31.33
Oct 29.23 57.09 2.28 33.94 22.43 0.02 32.21
Central Asia 5/ Sep 2.52 5.40 3/ 3.99 1.53 0.00 2.40
Oct 2.52 5.40 3/ 3.99 1.53 0.00 2.40
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Sep 1.42 5.89 3/ 0.14 5.54 0.00 1.63
Oct 1.37 5.89 3/ 0.14 5.41 0.00 1.71
S. Hemis. 7/ Sep 15.09 15.42 0.16 4.42 11.57 0.01 14.67
Oct 15.09 14.82 0.18 4.40 11.19 0.01 14.49
Australia Sep 1.57 1.40 3/ 0.04 1.90 0.00 1.04
Oct 1.57 1.20 3/ 0.04 1.70 0.00 1.04
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other
factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the
United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/
Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes
intra-EU trade.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 28
2019/20 Proj.
World 2/ Sep 112.41 341.39 148.20 306.23 353.41 149.39 99.19
Oct 109.87 338.97 148.10 305.21 352.34 149.39 95.21
World Less China Sep 92.67 324.29 63.20 221.23 250.71 149.27 80.17
Oct 90.13 321.87 63.10 220.21 249.64 149.27 76.19
United States Sep 27.36 98.87 0.54 57.56 61.04 48.31 17.43
Oct 24.85 96.62 0.54 57.70 61.19 48.31 12.52
Total Foreign Sep 85.05 242.52 147.65 248.67 292.37 101.09 81.76
Oct 85.03 242.35 147.55 247.52 291.15 101.09 82.69
Major Exporters 3/ Sep 57.76 188.40 4.11 92.78 102.76 92.83 54.68
Oct 58.20 188.40 4.11 91.73 101.75 92.83 56.13
Argentina Sep 29.35 53.00 3.90 45.00 52.15 8.00 26.10
Oct 29.20 53.00 3.90 44.00 51.15 8.00 26.95
Brazil Sep 28.20 123.00 0.20 43.75 46.50 76.50 28.40
Oct 28.84 123.00 0.20 43.75 46.54 76.50 29.00
Paraguay Sep 0.20 10.20 0.01 3.95 4.03 6.20 0.18
Oct 0.15 10.20 0.01 3.90 3.98 6.20 0.18
Major Importers 4/ Sep 22.29 20.99 119.14 113.81 139.96 0.39 22.07
Oct 22.29 20.81 119.14 113.81 139.96 0.39 21.89
China Sep 19.74 17.10 85.00 85.00 102.70 0.13 19.02
Oct 19.74 17.10 85.00 85.00 102.70 0.13 19.02
European Union Sep 1.14 2.60 15.10 15.90 17.56 0.23 1.05
Oct 1.14 2.60 15.10 15.90 17.56 0.23 1.05
Southeast Asia Sep 1.03 0.64 9.89 4.53 10.14 0.04 1.37
Oct 1.03 0.64 9.89 4.53 10.14 0.04 1.37
Mexico Sep 0.20 0.40 5.80 5.95 5.99 0.00 0.41
Oct 0.20 0.22 5.80 5.95 5.99 0.00 0.23
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may
not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal
world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 4/ China, European Union, Japan, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand). Totals may not add due to rounding.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 29
2019/20 Proj.
World 2/ Sep 11.72 239.96 65.34 236.98 68.18 11.85
Oct 11.25 239.71 64.41 236.24 67.99 11.14
World Less China Sep 11.72 172.64 65.29 170.51 67.28 11.85
Oct 11.25 172.39 64.36 169.77 67.09 11.14
United States Sep 0.41 45.04 0.45 33.11 12.43 0.36
Oct 0.41 45.18 0.45 33.25 12.43 0.36
Total Foreign Sep 11.31 194.92 64.88 203.87 55.75 11.49
Oct 10.84 194.53 63.95 202.99 55.56 10.78
Major Exporters 3/ Sep 6.26 75.71 0.04 28.15 47.60 6.26
Oct 5.76 75.46 0.04 28.14 47.40 5.72
Argentina Sep 2.69 34.00 0.00 3.40 30.50 2.79
Oct 2.34 33.75 0.00 3.39 30.30 2.40
Brazil Sep 3.36 33.95 0.03 18.95 15.20 3.19
Oct 3.21 33.95 0.03 18.95 15.20 3.04
India Sep 0.21 7.76 0.02 5.80 1.90 0.29
Oct 0.21 7.76 0.02 5.80 1.90 0.29
Major Importers 4/ Sep 1.52 22.63 40.23 62.05 0.60 1.73
Oct 1.46 22.63 39.68 61.55 0.60 1.62
European Union Sep 0.25 12.56 19.00 31.19 0.35 0.27
Oct 0.25 12.56 19.00 31.19 0.35 0.27
Mexico Sep 0.05 4.70 2.13 6.75 0.02 0.12
Oct 0.06 4.70 1.98 6.65 0.02 0.08
Southeast Asia 5/ Sep 1.13 3.54 17.32 20.51 0.23 1.26
Oct 1.01 3.54 17.02 20.21 0.23 1.13
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ European Union, Southeast Asia, and Japan. 5/
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. Totals may not add due to rounding.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 30
2019/20 Proj.
World 2/ Sep 3.78 57.25 11.61 57.11 11.85 3.68
Oct 3.77 57.20 11.74 57.17 11.87 3.68
World Less China Sep 3.27 42.02 10.51 40.90 11.73 3.18
Oct 3.26 41.97 10.54 40.88 11.72 3.18
United States Sep 0.78 11.13 0.20 10.66 0.78 0.67
Oct 0.78 11.15 0.20 10.66 0.78 0.69
Total Foreign Sep 3.00 46.13 11.41 46.45 11.07 3.01
Oct 2.99 46.05 11.54 46.51 11.09 2.98
Major Exporters 3/ Sep 1.11 20.86 0.41 12.48 8.77 1.13
Oct 1.08 20.80 0.41 12.43 8.76 1.09
Argentina Sep 0.33 8.70 0.00 2.84 5.85 0.34
Oct 0.30 8.65 0.00 2.69 5.95 0.31
Brazil Sep 0.40 8.39 0.05 7.20 1.25 0.39
Oct 0.40 8.39 0.05 7.30 1.15 0.39
European Union Sep 0.38 3.02 0.35 2.41 0.95 0.39
Oct 0.38 3.02 0.35 2.41 0.95 0.39
Major Importers 4/ Sep 1.03 18.04 7.31 25.14 0.21 1.02
Oct 1.03 18.04 7.41 25.22 0.24 1.02
China Sep 0.51 15.23 1.10 16.21 0.13 0.50
Oct 0.51 15.23 1.20 16.29 0.15 0.50
India Sep 0.23 1.75 3.50 5.24 0.01 0.23
Oct 0.23 1.75 3.50 5.24 0.01 0.23
North Africa 5/ Sep 0.13 0.73 1.66 2.32 0.08 0.12
Oct 0.13 0.73 1.66 2.32 0.08 0.12
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, and North Africa. 5/
Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Totals may not add due to rounding.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 31
Year and Quarter Beef Pork Red Meat Broiler Turkey Total Red Meat Egg Milk
2/ Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Million Pounds Mil doz Bil lbs
2018 IV 6,862 7,031 13,952 10,588 1,518 12,239 26,191 2,331 53.4
Annual 26,872 26,315 53,417 42,601 5,878 49,018 102,435 9,115 217.6
2019 I 6,414 6,838 13,308 10,384 1,446 11,957 25,264 2,307 54.5
II 6,814 6,615 13,487 10,933 1,450 12,513 26,000 2,337 55.8
III 6,920 6,705 13,678 11,400 1,430 12,950 26,628 2,340 54.1
IV* 6,800 7,420 14,277 10,950 1,520 12,597 26,874 2,360 53.8
Annual
Sep Proj. 26,953 27,578 54,756 43,467 5,866 49,847 104,603 9,334 218.0
Oct Proj. 26,948 27,578 54,750 43,667 5,846 50,017 104,767 9,344 218.2
2020 I* 6,525 7,180 13,762 10,640 1,450 12,216 25,978 2,330 55.6
II* 7,150 6,825 14,031 11,190 1,460 12,792 26,823 2,350 56.5
III* 6,955 6,990 14,000 11,565 1,465 13,173 27,173 2,360 54.8
Annual
Sep Proj. 27,670 28,410 56,308 44,000 5,930 50,476 106,784 9,410 221.2
Oct Proj. 27,670 28,680 56,578 44,385 5,910 50,841 107,419 9,420 221.6
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/
Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale,
National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by
farmers for all milk.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 32
Pork 2018 554 26,330 1,042 27,926 5,876 559 21,491 50.9
2019 Proj. Sep 559 27,592 956 29,107 6,530 600 21,977 51.8
Oct 559 27,592 956 29,107 6,580 590 21,937 51.7
2020 Proj. Sep 600 28,424 915 29,939 7,065 640 22,234 52.1
Oct 590Filler
28,694
Filler
915Filler
30,199
Filler
7,300Filler
630Filler
22,269
Filler
52.1
Filler
Total Red 2018 1,246 53,507 4,313 59,066 9,043 1,266 48,757 109.5
Meat 5/ 2019 Proj. Sep 1,266 54,845 4,244 60,355 9,678 1,310 49,367 110.2
Oct 1,266 54,839 4,239 60,344 9,713 1,310 49,321 110.1
2020 Proj. Sep 1,310 56,398 4,144 61,852 10,317 1,353 50,182 111.4
Oct 1,310Filler
56,668
Filler
4,029Filler
62,007
Filler
10,612Filler
1,344
Filler
50,051
Filler
111.1
Filler
Broiler 2018 856 42,145 139 43,140 7,069 845 35,227 92.4
2019 Proj. Sep 845 43,002 130 43,976 7,131 845 36,001 93.9
Oct 845 43,200 130 44,174 7,111 895 36,169 94.3
2020 Proj. Sep 845 43,529 132 44,506 7,250 840 36,416 94.4
Oct 895Filler
43,910
Filler
132Filler
44,937
Filler
7,250Filler
870Filler
36,817
Filler
95.4
Filler
Total 2018 1,170 48,562 160 49,892 7,764 1,153 40,975 110.0
Poultry 6/ 2019 Proj. Sep 1,153 49,381 147 50,682 7,837 1,147 41,698 111.2
Oct 1,153 49,549 145 50,847 7,830 1,167 41,851 111.6
2020 Proj. Sep 1,147 50,005 151 51,303 7,960 1,158 42,185 111.8
Oct 1,167Filler
50,365
Filler
151Filler
51,683
Filler
7,990Filler
1,163
Filler
42,530
Filler
112.7
Filler
Red Meat & 2018 2,416 102,069 4,473 108,958 16,807 2,419 89,732 219.5
Poultry 2019 Proj. Sep 2,419 104,227 4,392 111,037 17,515 2,457 91,065 221.4
Oct 2,419 104,389 4,384 111,192 17,543 2,477 91,172 221.7
2020 Proj. Sep 2,457 106,402 4,295 113,154 18,277 2,511 92,366 223.2
Oct 2,477 107,033 4,180 113,690 18,602 2,507 92,581 223.8
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/
Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 33
2017 2018 2019 Proj. 2019 Proj. 2020 Proj. 2020 Proj.
Commodity
Sep Oct Sep Oct
Eggs Million Dozen
Supply
Beginning Stocks 142.2 87.5 78.8 78.8 95.0 104.0
Production 8,942.7 9,114.6 9,334.0 9,344.0 9,410.0 9,420.0
Imports 34.2 17.8 16.5 15.5 16.0 16.0
Total Supply 9,119.1 9,220.0 9,429.3 9,438.3 9,521.0 9,540.0
Use
Exports 354.9 333.1 314.3 314.3 300.0 300.0
Hatching Use 1,035.2 1,057.5 1,068.1 1,073.1 1,090.0 1,090.0
Ending Stocks 87.5 78.8 95.0 104.0 95.0 108.0
Disappearance
Total 7,641.5 7,750.6 7,951.8 7,946.8 8,036.0 8,042.0
Per Capita (number) 281.8 284.0 289.7 289.5 291.0 291.2
Total
2017 2018 2019 Proj. 2019 Proj. 2020 Proj. 2020 Proj.
Commodity
Sep Oct Sep Oct
Milk Billion Pounds
Production 215.5 217.6 218.0 218.2 221.2 221.6
Farm Use 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Fat Basis Supply
Beg. Commercial Stocks 12.7 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.0 13.0
Marketings 214.5 216.6 217.0 217.1 220.2 220.5
Imports 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.5
Total Cml. Supply 233.2 236.3 237.7 237.9 240.1 240.0
Fat Basis Use
Commercial Exports 9.2 10.4 9.3 9.0 9.6 9.3
Ending Commercial Stocks 13.4 13.8 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.8
CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Domestic Commercial Use 210.6 212.1 215.2 215.7 217.3 217.8
Skim-solid Basis Supply
Beg. Commercial Stocks 9.5 11.8 10.7 10.7 10.0 10.4
Marketings 214.5 216.6 217.0 217.1 220.2 220.5
Imports 6.1 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.5
Total Cml. Supply 230.1 233.8 233.5 233.7 235.9 236.4
Skim-solid Basis Use
Commercial Exports 40.8 44.7 40.2 40.0 42.6 43.0
Ending Commercial Stocks 11.8 10.7 10.0 10.4 9.8 9.5
CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Domestic Commercial Use 177.5 178.5 183.2 183.1 183.4 183.8
Total
2017 2018 2019 Proj. 2019 Proj. 2020 Proj. 2020 Proj.
Commodity
Sep Oct Sep Oct
Product Prices 1/ Dollars Per Pound
Cheese 1.6344 1.5377 1.700 1.710 1.775 1.790
Butter 2.3303 2.2572 2.265 2.260 2.225 2.200
Nonfat Dry Milk 0.8666 0.7945 1.015 1.020 1.035 1.040
Dry Whey
Filler
0.4437 0.3422 0.390 0.390 0.375 0.375
Dollars Per Cwt
Milk Prices 2/
Class III 16.17 14.61 16.45 16.55 17.05 17.20
Class IV 15.16 14.23 16.15 16.20 16.15 16.10
All Milk 3/ 17.65 16.26 18.35 18.40 18.85 18.85
1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average dairy product prices for class price
computations. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk
prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices
received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation.
October 2019
WASDE - 593 - 35
The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and
other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports
issued by USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on
how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive
database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated
monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently.
Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE
report are provided by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the Foreign
Agricultural Service. PECAD is located at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/.
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activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political
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programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-
720-2600 (voice and TDD).
To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W,
Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410 or call (202)
720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.