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    AZ-Gov: GQR (D) For Steve Farley (March 2018)

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    AZ-Gov: GQR (D) For Steve Farley (March 2018)

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    Daily Kos Elections
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    GQR AZ-Gov poll

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    AZ-Gov: GQR (D) for Steve Farley (March 2018)

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    GQR AZ-Gov poll

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    888 views2 pages

    AZ-Gov: GQR (D) For Steve Farley (March 2018)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    GQR AZ-Gov poll

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 2

    March 29, 2018

    Governor Ducey Vulnerable to Democratic Challenger

    To: Interested Parties

    From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

    Governor Doug Ducey is vulnerable in the upcoming general election, despite his name
    identification and incumbency advantage. Democrats have been outperforming expectations
    across the country since President Trump’s election, even in historically deep red places like
    Alabama and PA-18. We have started to see changes even here in Arizona, the 2016 election
    was significantly closer than Obama’s reelection campaign: Clinton fell short 46-49 percent
    compared to Obama’s 44-54 loss.

    The electorate in Arizona is changing and it is becoming more competitive for Democrats. In the
    past, conventional wisdom was to give the enthusiasm edge to Republican in midterm years.
    But, this year is different—both across the country and here in Arizona—46 percent of likely
    voters are enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming general election. But, Democrats are the
    most enthusiastic (58 percent), significantly more so than Republicans (47 percent) and
    independents (36 percent).

    Beyond the circumstances that set the stage for the general election, there is Ducey himself. He
    has been in office for almost four years and voters are underwhelmed by him both personally,
    and more importantly his performance as governor. Only 41 percent of voters have a favorable
    opinion of Ducey, and among independents only 35 percent. More than half of voters (54
    percent) are lukewarm or negative towards Ducey’s performance as Governor, with more than a
    quarter (26 percent) saying he has done a poor job.

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    Governor Ducey Vulnerable to Democratic Challenger 2

    More than half of voters dissatisfied with Ducey and his performance as governor

    Conversely, Steve Farley is still very much a blank slate with plenty of time for voters to get to
    know him and grow his profile, while Ducey’s has largely been solidified. A third of the electorate
    can identify Farley, and his profile is pretty mixed among those who do know him (15-18 percent
    favorable-unfavorable). Despite these challenges Farley only trails Ducey by 5 points.

    Ducey leads Farley 49-44 in an initial match up, mirroring the results of the 2016 presidential
    election. A little more than a third voters are strong Ducey supporters, but 20 percent are either
    undecided or weak Ducey supporters – Farley would only need to win half of those voters to
    become the next governor.

    Farley within striking distance of Ducey

    2018 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rosner March, 2018

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