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campaign debates that it sanctioned. And Trump’s supporters now hold influence and power at
every level of the Republican Party across the country. Many have taken legislative action in the
wake of his false claims of fraud in 2020 that have made it harder to vote and easier to interfere
in elections.
Yet while Trump’s effective incumbency is a huge factor, the fact he is out of power also allows
him, paradoxically, to run as a candidate of change. The roles are reversed from 2020. Biden is
the one in office and now has a more recent White House record than Trump’s to be judged on.
But even when he was in the Oval Office, Trump never forgot that his magnetism among GOP
voters lies in always being the outsider and a disruptor. His unhinged behavior, incessant
shattering of rules and challenges to the law reinvigorated a brand perfectly tailored to
Republican voters who despise “elites” in politics, government and the media. His uncouth
language and politically incorrect jokes about the late Sen. John McCain and former President
Jimmy Carter, who is in hospice care, only reinforce the impression he says what many of his
supporters think.
In a flash of self-awareness, Trump explained his political method when he told North Dakota
Gov. Doug Burgum, who endorsed him after his failed 2024 campaign, “You need controversy
for traction sometimes.” In recent days, DeSantis has tried to position Trump as the
“establishment.” But it’s a hopeless strategy: even when the front-runner was the head of the US
government and his portrait was on the wall of every US government office and embassy, he was
a scourge of the establishment.
Still, the Biden campaign, beset by growing concern among Democrats about the president’s
reelection prospects, has argued that a big victory for Trump in Iowa would begin to awaken
Americans who rejected him in 2020 of the real danger that he could recapture the White House.
While Trump was strong even in suburban areas around Des Moines, this may not translate into
a similar performance among more moderate voters in corresponding areas in less conservative
states. Trump’s deficit among this group nationwide cost him the 2020 election.
Trump’s triumph will also reverberate around the world, a