In Table 2-3 of its January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027, CBO presents

the key inp

www.cbo.gov/publication/52370

On January 24, 2017, CBO reposted this file with corrections to Table 2-3 and Supplemental Table 1 and additions t

Contents
Table 2-3. Key Inputs in CBO's Projection of Potential GDP
Supplemental Table 1. Data Underlying CBO's Projection of Potential GDP (Annual)
Supplemental Table 2. Potential GDP and Natural Rate of Unemployment (Quarterly)
potential gross domestic product. That table is reproduced here and presented along with the annual and quarterly data that u
nual and quarterly data that underlie it.
In Table 2-3 of its January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027, CBO presents the key inp
www.cbo.gov/publication/52370

Table 2-3.
Key Inputs in CBO's Projection of Potential GDP
Percent

Average Annual Growth

Total,
1950- 1974- 1982- 1991- 2002- 2008- 1950-
1973 1981 1990 2001 2007 2016 2016
Overall Economy
Potential GDP 4.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 2.4 1.4 3.2
Potential Labor Force 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.5 1.4
Potential Labor Force Productivitya 2.4 0.6 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.7

Nonfarm Business Sector

Potential Output 4.1 3.5 3.6 3.7 2.6 1.6 3.4
Potential Hours Worked 1.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.4 1.3
Capital Services 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.8 2.7 1.7 3.4
Potential TFP 1.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.7 1.4

Contributions to the Growth of Potential Output

(Percentage points)
Potential hours worked 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.9
Capital input 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.1
Potential TFP 1.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.7 1.4
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
Total Contributions 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.6 2.7 1.6 3.4

Potential Labor Productivityb 2.7 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.2 2.1

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Potential GDP is CBO's estimate of the maximum sustainable output of the economy.

The table shows compound annual growth rates over the specified periods calculated using calendar year data.

GDP = gross domestic product; TFP = total factor productivity.

a. The ratio of potential GDP to the potential labor force.

b. The ratio of potential GDP to potential hours worked in the nonfarm business sector.
O presents the key inputs in its projection of potential gross domestic product. That table is reproduced here and presented alo

Projected Average
Annual Growth
Total,
2017- 2021- 2017-
2020 2027 2027
omy
1.7 1.9 1.8
0.5 0.5 0.5
1.2 1.4 1.3

s Sector
2.0 2.2 2.1
0.4 0.4 0.4
2.2 2.1 2.1
0.9 1.2 1.1

0.3 0.3 0.3

0.8 0.7 0.8
0.9 1.2 1.1
___ ___ ___
1.9 2.2 2.1

1.6 1.8 1.7

alendar year data.

uced here and presented along with the annual and quarterly data that underlie it.
In Table 2-3 of its January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027, CBO presents the key inputs in its projection of potential gross domestic product. That table is reproduced here and presented along with the annual and quarterly data that underlie it.
www.cbo.gov/publication/52370

Supplemental Table 1.
Data Underlying CBO's Projection of Potential GDP (Annual)

Overall Economy Nonfarm Business Sector

Potential Labor Force Index of Capital Potential Total

Potential GDP Potential Labor Productivity Potential GDP Potential Hours Services (Index: 2009 Factor Productivity Potential Labor Productivity
Calendar (Billions of chained Force (Ratio of potential GDP to (Billions of chained Worked = 100) Lagged One Index: (Ratio of potential GDP to
Year 2009 dollars) (Millions of people) the potential labor force) 2009 dollars) (Billions of hours) Year 2000 = 100 potential hours worked)
1949 2052 61 33.4 1341 85.5 11.8 46.4 15.7
1950 2161 62 34.9 1412 87.2 12.2 47.7 16.2
1951 2276 62 36.9 1481 88.0 12.6 49.1 16.8
1952 2405 62 38.7 1557 89.3 13.1 50.4 17.4
1953 2521 63 39.8 1628 91.0 13.5 51.5 17.9
1954 2599 64 40.6 1679 92.2 13.9 52.0 18.2
1955 2663 65 41.0 1722 93.1 14.3 52.5 18.5
1956 2733 66 41.5 1767 93.9 14.8 53.0 18.8
1957 2815 67 42.3 1823 94.7 15.4 53.7 19.3
1958 2916 67 43.3 1891 95.6 15.9 54.8 19.8
1959 3024 68 44.3 1963 96.8 16.2 56.1 20.3
1960 3142 69 45.3 2041 98.1 16.7 57.3 20.8
1961 3267 70 46.5 2123 99.3 17.3 58.5 21.4
1962 3400 71 47.9 2210 100.5 17.9 59.8 22.0
1963 3550 72 49.1 2309 102.2 18.6 61.1 22.6
1964 3708 74 50.4 2412 103.9 19.3 62.4 23.2
1965 3871 75 51.7 2520 105.3 20.1 63.8 23.9
1966 4045 76 53.3 2637 106.5 21.1 65.1 24.8
1967 4236 77 55.0 2768 107.8 22.3 66.5 25.7
1968 4436 79 56.5 2905 109.5 23.4 68.0 26.5
1969 4627 80 57.8 3040 111.2 24.5 69.3 27.3
1970 4789 82 58.4 3159 112.9 25.7 70.2 28.0
1971 4933 84 58.5 3271 114.9 26.7 70.9 28.5
1972 5082 87 58.4 3387 117.3 27.8 71.5 28.9
1973 5241 89 58.6 3508 119.4 29.0 72.3 29.4
1974 5427 92 59.1 3654 122.0 30.4 73.2 29.9
1975 5622 94 59.6 3806 125.0 31.6 74.2 30.4
1976 5803 97 59.9 3945 128.0 32.5 75.2 30.8
1977 5988 99 60.3 4086 130.9 33.4 76.2 31.2
1978 6194 102 60.9 4242 133.7 34.5 77.3 31.7
1979 6403 104 61.5 4399 136.6 36.0 78.1 32.2
1980 6570 107 61.6 4517 139.9 37.5 78.0 32.3
1981 6720 109 61.7 4621 143.2 39.0 77.7 32.3
1982 6924 111 62.4 4775 146.2 40.4 78.3 32.7
1983 7151 113 63.2 4945 149.1 41.6 79.4 33.2
1984 7399 115 64.1 5130 152.2 43.0 80.4 33.7
1985 7677 118 65.3 5337 155.1 44.8 81.5 34.4
1986 7963 120 66.6 5548 157.9 46.7 82.6 35.1
1987 8245 122 67.8 5753 160.5 48.4 83.7 35.9
1988 8517 123 69.0 5949 162.6 50.0 84.8 36.6
1989 8785 125 70.4 6142 164.4 51.6 85.9 37.4
1990 9043 126 71.6 6331 166.2 53.3 86.9 38.1
1991 9277 128 72.6 6507 168.1 54.7 87.8 38.7
1992 9504 129 73.5 6680 170.3 55.9 88.7 39.2
1993 9752 131 74.5 6870 173.0 57.2 89.6 39.7
1994 10025 133 75.6 7082 176.0 58.8 90.5 40.2
1995 10322 134 77.0 7316 179.3 60.7 91.4 40.8
1996 10637 136 78.3 7567 182.1 63.0 92.4 41.6
1997 11014 137 80.1 7874 184.6 65.7 93.9 42.7
1998 11460 139 82.3 8245 187.2 68.9 95.9 44.1
 1999 11936 141 84.7 8641 189.5 72.6 97.9 45.6
2000 12411 143 87.0 9037 191.1 76.6 100.0 47.3
2001 12861 145 89.0 9417 192.5 80.5 102.0 48.9
2002 13244 146 90.5 9737 193.5 83.3 103.9 50.3
2003 13583 148 91.9 10014 194.1 85.4 105.9 51.6
2004 13923 149 93.3 10287 194.4 87.2 107.9 52.9
2005 14268 151 94.7 10565 194.9 89.4 109.7 54.2
2006 14574 152 95.8 10806 195.4 91.8 111.0 55.3
2007 14840 153 96.8 11013 195.7 94.6 111.9 56.3
2008 15097 154 98.0 11224 196.2 97.5 112.7 57.2
2009 15310 155 98.8 11405 196.7 99.5 113.5 58.0
2010 15459 156 99.4 11526 197.1 100.2 114.3 58.5
2011 15619 156 100.0 11659 197.5 101.0 115.1 59.0
2012 15821 157 100.7 11833 198.4 102.4 116.0 59.6
2013 16057 158 101.7 12039 199.6 104.2 116.8 60.3
2014 16316 159 102.7 12264 201.0 106.1 117.6 61.0
2015 16589 160 103.7 12504 202.6 108.2 118.5 61.7
2016 16861 161 104.8 12741 203.7 110.5 119.3 62.5
2017 17128 162 105.9 12974 204.6 112.9 120.3 63.4
2018 17410 163 107.1 13223 205.4 115.3 121.3 64.4
2019 17712 163 108.4 13490 206.2 117.9 122.5 65.4
2020 18030 164 109.9 13770 207.0 120.5 123.7 66.5
2021 18362 165 111.3 14062 207.8 123.1 125.1 67.7
2022 18709 166 112.9 14369 208.7 125.6 126.6 68.9
2023 19067 167 114.5 14688 209.6 128.2 128.1 70.1
2024 19433 167 116.1 15015 210.6 130.9 129.6 71.3
2025 19802 168 117.8 15347 211.5 133.6 131.1 72.6
2026 20175 169 119.5 15686 212.4 136.4 132.7 73.8
2027 20554 170 121.2 16034 213.3 139.3 134.3 75.2

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Projected values are shaded blue.

For details about the construction of the potential series, see Congressional Budget Office, CBO's Method for Estimating Potential Output: An Update (August 2001), www.cbo.gov/publication/13250.

GDP = gross domestic product.

In Table 2-3 of its January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027, CBO presents the key inputs in its projection of potential gross domestic product. That table is reproduced here and presented along with the annual and quarterly data that underlie it.
www.cbo.gov/publication/52370

Supplemental Table 2.
Potential GDP and Natural Rate of Unemployment (Quarterly)

Potential GDP Rate of Unemployment

(Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Real (2009 dollars) Nominal Underlying Long-Term Natural
1949Q1 2,011 276 5.3 5.3
1949Q2 2,038 278 5.3 5.3
1949Q3 2,065 280 5.3 5.3
1949Q4 2,093 284 5.3 5.3
1950Q1 2,120 286 5.3 5.3
1950Q2 2,147 291 5.3 5.3
1950Q3 2,175 301 5.3 5.3
1950Q4 2,203 310 5.3 5.3
1951Q1 2,231 324 5.3 5.3
1951Q2 2,261 331 5.3 5.3
1951Q3 2,291 336 5.3 5.3
1951Q4 2,323 345 5.3 5.3
1952Q1 2,355 351 5.4 5.4
1952Q2 2,389 357 5.4 5.4
1952Q3 2,422 365 5.4 5.4
1952Q4 2,455 371 5.4 5.4
1953Q1 2,484 376 5.4 5.4
1953Q2 2,510 381 5.4 5.4
1953Q3 2,534 386 5.4 5.4
1953Q4 2,556 390 5.4 5.4
1954Q1 2,574 395 5.4 5.4
1954Q2 2,591 398 5.4 5.4
1954Q3 2,607 400 5.4 5.4
1954Q4 2,622 403 5.4 5.4
1955Q1 2,639 407 5.4 5.4
1955Q2 2,655 412 5.4 5.4
1955Q3 2,671 417 5.4 5.4
1955Q4 2,688 423 5.4 5.4
1956Q1 2,706 430 5.4 5.4
1956Q2 2,723 436 5.4 5.4
1956Q3 2,741 444 5.4 5.4
1956Q4 2,760 450 5.4 5.4
1957Q1 2,781 459 5.4 5.4
1957Q2 2,803 465 5.4 5.4
1957Q3 2,827 473 5.4 5.4
1957Q4 2,851 480 5.4 5.4
1958Q1 2,877 488 5.4 5.4
1958Q2 2,903 495 5.4 5.4
1958Q3 2,929 500 5.4 5.4
1958Q4 2,956 506 5.4 5.4
1959Q1 2,982 513 5.4 5.4
1959Q2 3,009 519 5.4 5.4
1959Q3 3,037 526 5.4 5.4
1959Q4 3,066 533 5.4 5.4
1960Q1 3,096 539 5.5 5.5
1960Q2 3,126 546 5.5 5.5
1960Q3 3,157 554 5.5 5.5
1960Q4 3,189 562 5.5 5.5
1961Q1 3,220 568 5.5 5.5
1961Q2 3,251 575 5.5 5.5
1961Q3 3,282 582 5.5 5.5
1961Q4 3,314 589 5.5 5.5
1962Q1 3,347 598 5.5 5.5
1962Q2 3,381 606 5.5 5.5
1962Q3 3,417 613 5.5 5.5
1962Q4 3,453 621 5.5 5.5
1963Q1 3,492 631 5.5 5.5
1963Q2 3,531 639 5.5 5.5
1963Q3 3,570 647 5.6 5.6
1963Q4 3,610 658 5.6 5.6
1964Q1 3,649 668 5.6 5.6
1964Q2 3,688 677 5.6 5.6
1964Q3 3,728 688 5.6 5.6
1964Q4 3,768 698 5.6 5.6
1965Q1 3,809 709 5.6 5.6
1965Q2 3,850 720 5.7 5.7
1965Q3 3,892 731 5.7 5.7
1965Q4 3,934 744 5.7 5.7
1966Q1 3,977 756 5.7 5.7
1966Q2 4,022 772 5.8 5.8
1966Q3 4,068 787 5.8 5.8
1966Q4 4,114 803 5.8 5.8
1967Q1 4,163 816 5.8 5.8
1967Q2 4,212 830 5.8 5.8
1967Q3 4,261 848 5.8 5.8
1967Q4 4,311 867 5.8 5.8
1968Q1 4,360 887 5.8 5.8
1968Q2 4,411 907 5.8 5.8
1968Q3 4,461 926 5.8 5.8
1968Q4 4,510 949 5.8 5.8
1969Q1 4,559 969 5.8 5.8
1969Q2 4,606 992 5.8 5.8
1969Q3 4,651 1,016 5.9 5.9
1969Q4 4,694 1,038 5.9 5.9
1970Q1 4,734 1,062 5.9 5.9
1970Q2 4,771 1,085 5.9 5.9
1970Q3 4,807 1,103 5.9 5.9
1970Q4 4,842 1,125 5.9 5.9
1971Q1 4,878 1,151 5.9 5.9
1971Q2 4,914 1,175 5.9 5.9
1971Q3 4,951 1,195 5.9 5.9
1971Q4 4,987 1,214 6.0 6.0
1972Q1 5,025 1,243 6.0 6.0
1972Q2 5,063 1,260 6.0 6.0
1972Q3 5,100 1,281 6.0 6.0
1972Q4 5,139 1,305 6.1 6.1
1973Q1 5,178 1,332 6.1 6.1
1973Q2 5,219 1,364 6.1 6.1
1973Q3 5,261 1,401 6.1 6.1
1973Q4 5,305 1,437 6.1 6.1
1974Q1 5,353 1,480 6.2 6.2
1974Q2 5,402 1,527 6.2 6.2
1974Q3 5,452 1,588 6.2 6.2
1974Q4 5,502 1,651 6.2 6.2
1975Q1 5,551 1,704 6.2 6.2
1975Q2 5,599 1,743 6.2 6.2
1975Q3 5,646 1,789 6.2 6.2
1975Q4 5,692 1,834 6.2 6.2
1976Q1 5,736 1,868 6.2 6.2
1976Q2 5,780 1,901 6.2 6.2
1976Q3 5,825 1,940 6.2 6.2
1976Q4 5,870 1,988 6.2 6.2
1977Q1 5,916 2,036 6.2 6.2
1977Q2 5,964 2,084 6.2 6.2
1977Q3 6,012 2,131 6.2 6.2
1977Q4 6,062 2,184 6.2 6.2
1978Q1 6,113 2,240 6.3 6.3
1978Q2 6,166 2,302 6.3 6.3
1978Q3 6,221 2,363 6.3 6.3
1978Q4 6,275 2,432 6.3 6.3
1979Q1 6,328 2,498 6.3 6.3
1979Q2 6,380 2,578 6.3 6.3
1979Q3 6,429 2,651 6.3 6.3
1979Q4 6,476 2,723 6.2 6.2
1980Q1 6,518 2,800 6.2 6.2
1980Q2 6,553 2,877 6.2 6.2
1980Q3 6,587 2,958 6.2 6.2
1980Q4 6,621 3,057 6.2 6.2
1981Q1 6,656 3,152 6.2 6.2
1981Q2 6,697 3,228 6.2 6.2
1981Q3 6,740 3,309 6.2 6.2
1981Q4 6,787 3,392 6.1 6.1
1982Q1 6,840 3,465 6.1 6.1
1982Q2 6,895 3,536 6.1 6.1
1982Q3 6,952 3,615 6.1 6.1
1982Q4 7,010 3,685 6.1 6.1
1983Q1 7,065 3,746 6.1 6.1
1983Q2 7,122 3,801 6.1 6.1
1983Q3 7,179 3,872 6.1 6.1
1983Q4 7,238 3,932 6.1 6.1
1984Q1 7,300 4,007 6.1 6.1
1984Q2 7,365 4,078 6.0 6.0
1984Q3 7,432 4,149 6.0 6.0
1984Q4 7,500 4,213 6.0 6.0
1985Q1 7,570 4,303 6.0 6.0
1985Q2 7,641 4,368 6.0 6.0
1985Q3 7,713 4,437 6.0 6.0
1985Q4 7,785 4,503 6.0 6.0
1986Q1 7,856 4,566 6.0 6.0
1986Q2 7,928 4,625 6.0 6.0
1986Q3 7,999 4,688 6.0 6.0
1986Q4 8,070 4,758 6.0 6.0
1987Q1 8,141 4,828 6.0 6.0
1987Q2 8,210 4,901 6.0 6.0
1987Q3 8,280 4,979 6.0 6.0
1987Q4 8,348 5,059 6.0 6.0
1988Q1 8,416 5,140 5.9 5.9
1988Q2 8,484 5,233 5.9 5.9
1988Q3 8,551 5,338 5.9 5.9
1988Q4 8,618 5,426 5.9 5.9
1989Q1 8,685 5,524 5.9 5.9
1989Q2 8,752 5,625 5.9 5.9
1989Q3 8,818 5,709 5.9 5.9
1989Q4 8,884 5,790 5.9 5.9
1990Q1 8,949 5,898 5.9 5.9
1990Q2 9,012 6,000 5.9 5.9
1990Q3 9,074 6,096 5.9 5.9
1990Q4 9,135 6,184 5.8 5.8
1991Q1 9,193 6,285 5.8 5.8
1991Q2 9,249 6,366 5.8 5.8
1991Q3 9,305 6,451 5.8 5.8
1991Q4 9,360 6,524 5.7 5.7
1992Q1 9,417 6,593 5.7 5.7
1992Q2 9,474 6,675 5.7 5.7
1992Q3 9,533 6,748 5.6 5.6
1992Q4 9,593 6,838 5.6 5.6
1993Q1 9,656 6,923 5.6 5.6
1993Q2 9,719 7,011 5.5 5.5
1993Q3 9,784 7,094 5.5 5.5
1993Q4 9,850 7,182 5.5 5.5
1994Q1 9,918 7,269 5.4 5.4
1994Q2 9,988 7,357 5.4 5.4
1994Q3 10,061 7,447 5.4 5.4
1994Q4 10,134 7,544 5.4 5.4
1995Q1 10,209 7,646 5.3 5.3
1995Q2 10,283 7,736 5.3 5.3
1995Q3 10,359 7,826 5.3 5.3
1995Q4 10,436 7,921 5.3 5.3
1996Q1 10,513 8,021 5.2 5.2
1996Q2 10,594 8,113 5.2 5.2
1996Q3 10,677 8,214 5.2 5.2
1996Q4 10,765 8,317 5.2 5.2
1997Q1 10,859 8,431 5.1 5.1
1997Q2 10,959 8,548 5.1 5.1
1997Q3 11,064 8,655 5.1 5.1
1997Q4 11,172 8,769 5.1 5.1
1998Q1 11,284 8,870 5.1 5.1
1998Q2 11,400 8,981 5.1 5.1
1998Q3 11,518 9,107 5.1 5.1
1998Q4 11,637 9,226 5.1 5.1
1999Q1 11,756 9,355 5.0 5.0
1999Q2 11,876 9,490 5.0 5.0
1999Q3 11,995 9,619 5.0 5.0
1999Q4 12,115 9,763 5.0 5.0
2000Q1 12,233 9,931 5.0 5.0
2000Q2 12,352 10,083 5.0 5.0
2000Q3 12,471 10,245 5.0 5.0
2000Q4 12,587 10,396 5.0 5.0
2001Q1 12,701 10,557 5.0 5.0
2001Q2 12,810 10,722 5.0 5.0
2001Q3 12,916 10,845 5.0 5.0
2001Q4 13,017 10,964 5.0 5.0
2002Q1 13,112 11,077 5.0 5.0
2002Q2 13,202 11,199 5.0 5.0
2002Q3 13,288 11,322 5.0 5.0
2002Q4 13,373 11,454 5.0 5.0
2003Q1 13,458 11,599 5.0 5.0
2003Q2 13,541 11,708 5.0 5.0
2003Q3 13,624 11,844 5.0 5.0
2003Q4 13,707 11,975 5.0 5.0
2004Q1 13,791 12,152 5.0 5.0
2004Q2 13,879 12,332 5.0 5.0
2004Q3 13,966 12,491 5.0 5.0
2004Q4 14,054 12,657 5.0 5.0
2005Q1 14,141 12,854 5.0 5.0
2005Q2 14,227 13,025 5.0 5.0
2005Q3 14,311 13,223 5.0 5.0
2005Q4 14,393 13,399 5.0 5.0
2006Q1 14,469 13,574 5.0 5.0
2006Q2 14,541 13,754 5.0 5.0
2006Q3 14,610 13,916 5.0 5.0
2006Q4 14,677 14,030 5.0 5.0
2007Q1 14,743 14,250 4.9 4.9
2007Q2 14,808 14,396 4.9 4.9
2007Q3 14,873 14,507 4.9 4.9
2007Q4 14,937 14,630 4.9 4.9
2008Q1 15,001 14,777 4.9 4.9
2008Q2 15,066 14,907 4.9 5.0
2008Q3 15,129 15,072 4.9 5.0
2008Q4 15,189 15,160 4.9 5.1
2009Q1 15,244 15,251 4.9 5.2
2009Q2 15,291 15,274 5.0 5.3
2009Q3 15,333 15,315 5.0 5.4
2009Q4 15,372 15,401 5.0 5.5
2010Q1 15,407 15,487 5.1 5.7
2010Q2 15,441 15,593 5.1 5.7
2010Q3 15,475 15,699 5.1 5.7
2010Q4 15,511 15,815 5.1 5.8
2011Q1 15,552 15,926 5.1 5.8
2011Q2 15,595 16,090 5.1 5.8
2011Q3 15,641 16,231 5.1 5.9
2011Q4 15,689 16,303 5.1 5.9
2012Q1 15,739 16,442 5.1 5.8
2012Q2 15,792 16,571 5.1 5.8
2012Q3 15,848 16,727 5.1 5.7
2012Q4 15,905 16,849 5.1 5.7
2013Q1 15,964 16,973 5.0 5.5
2013Q2 16,025 17,077 5.0 5.4
2013Q3 16,088 17,232 5.0 5.3
2013Q4 16,152 17,391 5.0 5.2
2014Q1 16,216 17,536 5.0 5.1
2014Q2 16,282 17,700 4.9 5.0
2014Q3 16,349 17,849 4.9 4.9
2014Q4 16,416 17,946 4.9 4.9
2015Q1 16,485 18,019 4.8 4.8
2015Q2 16,554 18,196 4.8 4.8
2015Q3 16,623 18,330 4.8 4.8
2015Q4 16,693 18,445 4.8 4.8
2016Q1 16,761 18,543 4.7 4.7
2016Q2 16,828 18,724 4.7 4.7
2016Q3 16,894 18,864 4.7 4.7
2016Q4 16,961 19,049 4.7 4.7
2017Q1 17,027 19,208 4.7 4.7
2017Q2 17,094 19,364 4.7 4.7
2017Q3 17,161 19,532 4.7 4.7
2017Q4 17,230 19,703 4.7 4.7
2018Q1 17,301 19,879 4.7 4.7
2018Q2 17,373 20,059 4.7 4.7
2018Q3 17,446 20,235 4.7 4.7
2018Q4 17,521 20,410 4.7 4.7
2019Q1 17,596 20,598 4.7 4.7
2019Q2 17,673 20,781 4.7 4.7
2019Q3 17,750 20,967 4.7 4.7
2019Q4 17,829 21,157 4.7 4.7
2020Q1 17,908 21,360 4.7 4.7
2020Q2 17,989 21,556 4.7 4.7
2020Q3 18,070 21,756 4.7 4.7
2020Q4 18,152 21,959 4.7 4.7
2021Q1 18,235 22,176 4.7 4.7
2021Q2 18,320 22,386 4.7 4.7
2021Q3 18,405 22,599 4.7 4.7
2021Q4 18,490 22,815 4.7 4.7
2022Q1 18,577 23,044 4.7 4.7
2022Q2 18,665 23,265 4.7 4.7
2022Q3 18,753 23,489 4.7 4.7
2022Q4 18,842 23,714 4.7 4.7
2023Q1 18,932 23,954 4.7 4.7
2023Q2 19,022 24,185 4.7 4.7
2023Q3 19,112 24,419 4.7 4.7
2023Q4 19,203 24,655 4.7 4.7
2024Q1 19,295 24,905 4.7 4.7
2024Q2 19,386 25,147 4.7 4.7
2024Q3 19,478 25,390 4.7 4.7
2024Q4 19,571 25,636 4.7 4.7
2025Q1 19,663 25,896 4.7 4.7
2025Q2 19,756 26,146 4.7 4.7
2025Q3 19,848 26,398 4.7 4.7
2025Q4 19,941 26,653 4.7 4.7
2026Q1 20,034 26,924 4.7 4.7
2026Q2 20,128 27,185 4.7 4.7
2026Q3 20,222 27,448 4.7 4.7
2026Q4 20,316 27,713 4.7 4.7
2027Q1 20,411 27,993 4.7 4.7
2027Q2 20,506 28,263 4.7 4.7
2027Q3 20,601 28,535 4.7 4.7
2027Q4 20,697 28,808 4.7 4.7

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

The quarterly estimates of potential GDP are constructed by interpolating the data in Supplemental Table 1, "Data
Underlying CBO's Projection of Potential GDP (Annual)."

The underlying long-term rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment arising from long-lasting structural factors not
related to fluctuations in the overall demand for goods and services. The natural rate of unemployment incorporates the
effects of additional factors that boosted the unemployment rate between 2008 and 2014, such as unemployment
insurance benefit extensions and the stigma and erosion of skills associated with long-term unemployment. CBO estimates
that the underlying long-term and natural rates of unemployment have been equal since the end of 2014. Estimates of
potential GDP are based on the underlying long-term rate of unemployment.

GDP = gross domestic product.