Age Matters in Shipping

Mare Forum Italy

Foteini Kanellopoulou, Senior Analyst
14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Disclaimer
The material and the information contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided by H. Clarkson & Co. Ltd ("Clarksons") for general
information purposes.
The Information is drawn from Clarksons' database and other sources. Clarksons advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons' database
is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may
differ from the Information extracted from Clarksons' database; (iii) whilst Clarksons has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information
and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors;
(iv) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an
endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons and its connected persons, and is not intended to recommend any
decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate. Clarksons and its
connected persons make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or
availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk.
This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed
to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons. Especially, the
information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are
fully reserved.
To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons and its connected persons shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss or damage of
any kind arising out of or in connection with the Information, including without limitation any direct, special, indirect or consequential damages (eg
damage for loss of business or loss of profits) whether caused by tort (including negligence), breach of contract or otherwise, even if foreseeable.
These exclusions do not apply to (i) death or personal injury caused by the negligence of Clarksons and its connected persons or (ii) the liability of
Clarksons and its connected persons for fraudulent misrepresentation.
In this disclaimer connected persons means, in relation to Clarksons, its ultimate holding company, the shareholders, subsidiaries and subsidiary
undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them.
This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.
H. CLARKSON & CO. LTD, ST. MAGNUS HOUSE, 3 LOWER THAMES STREET, LONDON, EC3R 6HE
TELEPHONE +44 (0) 207-334-5420

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Global Economic Outlook

GDP Growth Distribution of World Economic Growth
World China
India Latin America & Caribs OECD Non-OECD
Sub-Sah Africa
16 100
14 18%

12 34%
80
% y-o-y change

10
8 60
6
4 40 82%
2 66%

0 20
-2
-4
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2000 2011

Data source: IMF

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Growing World Trade

Total Seaborne Trade % Trade Growth 2000-11
Iron Ore Coal Grain Minor Bulk
Container Oil Liq Gas Other 150%
10
9
125%
8 55%,3.3 bn tonnes
billion tonnes

7 100%
6
5 75%
133% 132%
4
50% 102%
3 85%
2 60%
25% 45%
1
10%
0 0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 (f)

Data Source: Clarksons

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Main Sectors Summary Fleet Components

Orderbook Built since 2000 >15yr old
100
% of the existing fleet tonnage capacity

80 83
79 81 78 79
65
60 67

40
29 31
30 17 19
20 13 15 25
19 11 20
11 11
0 7
Crude Tanker Product Tanker Specialised Dry Bulk Containerships LNG LPG
Tanker

Data source: Clarksons

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Fleet Removals* vs. Clarksea Index

Crude Tanker Product Tanker Specialised Tanker** Bulker

Containership LPG LNG Clarksea Index

800 40,000

700 35,000

600 30,000
No. of vessels

500 25,000

$ per day
400 20,000

300 15,000

200 10,000

100 5,000

0 0

2012ytd
1998
1996

1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011
Note: *includes demolitions, losses & removals
** excludes those in product tanker fleet analysis
Data source: Clarksons

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Removed Fleet Age Profile Evolvement - Tankers

Crude Tanker Product Tanker Specialised Tanker
Avg. Age Min Age Avg. Age Min Age Avg. Age Min Age
27 35 30
26yrs old
24
23yrs old 28yrs old
30 25
21
25
years of age

18 20

15 20
15
12
15
9 10
10
6
5
3 5

0 0 0
1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012ytd

2004
1996

1998

2000

2002

2006

2008

2010

2012ytd
1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012ytd
Note: Dashed line represents the average age 1996-ytd
Data source: Clarksons
14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Removed Fleet Age Profile Evolvement - Dry & Gas

Dry Bulk LPG
Avg. Age Min. Age Avg. Age Min Age
40 40
28yrs old 30yrs old
years of age

years of age
30 30

20 20

10 10
0 0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012ytd

1999
1996
1997
1998

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012ytd
Containership LNG
Avg. Age Min Age Avg. Age Min Age
40 50
26yrs old 33yrs old
years of age
years of age

40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0 0
1999
1996
1997
1998

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012ytd

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: Dashed line represents the average age 1996-ytd
14 May 2012
Data source: Clarksons
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Tanker Orderbook vs. Older Tonnage

Crude Tanker Orderbook vs. 15yr old Fleet Product Tanker Orderbook vs. 20yr old Fleet

90 20
75
Million dwt

Million dwt
15
60
45 10
30
5
15
0 0

Specialised* Tanker Orderbook vs. 20yr old Fleet

6.0
5.0
Million dwt

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

Data source: Clarksons

*including IMO vessels in the product tanker fleet

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Dry & Gas Carrier Orderbook vs. Older Tonnage

Dry Bulk Orderbook vs. 20yr old Fleet LPG Orderbook vs. 25yr old Fleet
200 2.5
2.0
Million dwt

Million cbm
150
1.5
100
1.0
50 0.5
0 0.0

Containership Orderbook vs. 20yr old Fleet LNG Orderbook vs. 30yr old Fleet
4.0 12
Million teu

Million cbm
3.0 9
2.0 6
1.0 3
0.0 0

Data source: Clarksons 14 May 2012

www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Bunker Cost Pressure

Fujairah 380cst bunker price
800

700 745.2

600

500
$ per tonne

400

300

200

100
106.1
0
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12
Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
Data source: Oceanconnect

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Spot Earnings Trends

Aframax MR P'max Bulker
90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000
$ per day

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
Jan-09
Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12
Data Source: Clarksons
14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Cross Market Rates vs. Prices

Aframax Pmax Bulker Pmax Container
1yr TC rate 5yr old Price 1yr TC rate 5yr old Price 1yr TC rate 5yr old Price
15yr old D/H Price Scrap Price 15yr old Price Scrap Price 15yr old Price
45 90 90 120 50 75

40 80
75 100
35 70 40 60

30 60 60 80
$000 per day

30 45

$ million
25 50
45 60
20 40
20 30
15 30 30 40

10 20
10 15
15 20
5 10

0 0 0 0 0 0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12

Jan-07
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06

Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12

Jan-09
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08

Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Data Source: Clarksons
14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

15yr old vs. Scrap Price Differential

Aframax Tanker MR Tanker Pmax Bulker
35 30 60
15yr old S/H
30 vs. Scrap Price
25 50
15yr old D/H
vs. Scrap Price
25
20 40

20
$million

15 30
15

10 20
10

5 Current 5 10

0 0 0
Jan-03
Jan-02

Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12

Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12

Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Data Source: Clarksons
14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com
 Age Matters in Shipping | Mare Forum Italy

Thanks for your attention!

14 May 2012
www.clarksons.com