Climate Change and Health

Climate Change and Health
Yasushi Honda, M.D., Ph.D.

University of Tsukuba, Japan
Tokyo, 20 April, 2010

Today’s contents
Global impact
Importance of Asia
Nature of health impact
Towards the adaptation
Direct heat effect on human population

Global model
Issues of the present model
Adaptation practices in Japan
Global impact
Importance of Asia
Large population size

Large impact
Large potential for mitigation
Large vulnerable areas

Large impact
Complex causal web
Many indirect pathways
Impacts are larger for developing areas

Poor public health infrastructure
Poor nutritional status
etc.
Difficult to be detected!
Climate Change and Health: Pathways
1
Direct
impact
e.g. heatwaves,
floods, fires, storms
Changes to physical
systems/processes
3
Climate e.g. urban air pollution Social,
Health
change economic,
demographic impacts
Biological changes:
2 processes, timing disruptions
Indirect
e.g. mosquito density, range;
(system-
photosynthesis  crop yields
mediated)
impacts
Changes to
ecosystem structure
and function
e.g. fisheries; constraints on
microbes; nutrient cycles;
forest productivity
By Dr McMichael ,AJ
Cartogram: Health (mortality) impacts of climate change
Deaths from malaria &

dengue fever, diarrhoea,
malnutrition, flooding, and
(in OECD countries)
heatwaves
WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the
year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000
(Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007: based on McMichael et al 2004)
Cartogram: Emissions of greenhouse gases
Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon

equivalent in 2002. (Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007)
Towards adaptation
Seek
Better public health infrastructure
Better economical development
Through
less carbon-demanding pathway
Today’s contents
Global impact
Importance of Asia
Towards the adaptation
Direct heat effect on human population

Global model
Issues of the present model
Adaptation practices
Two directions of research
on health impact of climate change
on heat-related mortality
Full model
log( t )  0  ns(timet , df )  ns(Tlag , df )  ns( Dt , df )  yDOWt
Simple model
log( t )  ns(timet , df )  ns(Tlag , df )
Temperature and mortality in Japan:
Optimum temperature (OT) variation
1.4
Okinawa (south)
1.3
Tokyo
1.2
MRR
1.1
Hokkaido (north)
1.0
OTs
0.9
-10 0 10 20 30 40
Tmax
Daily maximum temperature
Distribution of daily maximum
temperature for 3 cities in Taiwan
Taipei Taichung Kaohsiung
Minimum 9.1 9.5 12.9
25 pecentile 21.5 24.8 26.3
median 27.1 29.1 29.5

mean 26.6 < 28.1 < 28.7
75 percentile 32.3 > 32.1 > 31.6
Maximum 38.8 39.9 37.1

Temperature-mortality relation of
3 Taiwan cities
Taipei Taichung Kaohsiung
1600
1600
1600
1500
1500
1500
1400
1400
1400
Mortality
Mortality rate
Mortality rate
Mortality rate
1300
1300
1300
rate
1200
1200
1200
1100
1100
1100
1000
1000
1000
5 15 25 35 5 15 25 35 5 15 25 35
Tmax Tmax Tmax

Mortality rate and Tmax 1981-2006
80 percentile value of daily maximum
temperature can predict OT
35
tt
c
t
30
kk
OT
c
c kk
k
t: Taiwan
25
k c: China
k: Korea
●:Japan
20
20 25 30 35
80 percentile value ofTmax80
daily maximum temperature
Estimation of excess mortality
Mortality rate
Average
mortality
OT
Temperature
Assumptions for
excess mortality calculation
•mortality rate at OT = 0.9 * average mortality
•Relative risk (OT<= <OT+3) = 1.02
Relative risk (OT+3<=)=1.10
•GCM by Japanese team
•IPCC SRES-A2 scenario
•No adaptation occurs
*Reference for relative risks: mortality rate at OT

Excess mortality density (1990s and 2090s)
1990s
2090s
10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100

(persons/km2)
Problem in evaluating net effect of
climate change: Control for time trend
Year-controlled Year- and Season- controlled
Daily maximum temperature（℃） Daily maximum temperature （℃）

Relation by month
Simple simulation
Assumption of winter mortality
(1) Baseline: Poisson random variation
(2) influenza epidemic in Jan-Feb
(NOT related to temperature)
Result
Overall relation Lag analysis
Number of deaths

Adaptation practices in Japan
So far
(1) Heat watch/warning system
… information dissemination
(2) Manual for heatstroke by MOE
New project: The system

(1) to modify people’s behavior
(2) to evaluate the effectiveness
(3) with built-in economical evaluation
Thank you for your attention!
Yurt (Mongolian mobile house)

with a solar panel and a satellite antenna

Climate Change and Health

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Climate Change and Health

Yasushi Honda, M.D., Ph.D.

Tokyo, 20 April, 2010

Direct heat effect on human population

Large population size

Large vulnerable areas

Impacts are larger for developing areas

Deaths from malaria &

Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon

Direct heat effect on human population

Minimum 9.1 9.5 12.9

25 pecentile 21.5 24.8 26.3

median 27.1 29.1 29.5

75 percentile 32.3 > 32.1 > 31.6

Maximum 38.8 39.9 37.1

Tmax Tmax Tmax

*Reference for relative risks: mortality rate at OT

10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100

Daily maximum temperature（℃） Daily maximum temperature （℃）

Daily maximum temperature

New project: The system

Yurt (Mongolian mobile house)

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