Q2.

What are the approaches used for the development of various Lake
Models?

Lakes are highly valued for their recreational, aesthetic and scenic qualities,
and the water they contain is one of the most treasured of our natural
resources (fig. 2). Lakes constitute important habitats and food resources for
a diverse array of fish, aquatic life, and wildlife, but lake ecosystems are
fragile. Lake ecosystems can undergo rapid environmental changes, often
leading to significant declines in their aesthetic, recreational, and aquatic
ecosystem functions. Exposed to external effects from the atmosphere, their
watersheds, and ground water, lakes are subject to change through time.
Human activities can further accelerate the rates of change. If the causes of
the changes are known, however, human intervention (lake-management
practices) sometimes can control, or even reverse, detrimental changes.

Figure 2. Long Lake, in northern Wisconsin, is a natural resource with high water
quality, valued for its recreational, aesthetic and scenic qualities.

Limnology (the study of lakes and other freshwater systems) is the science
that can provide improved understanding of lake ecosystem dynamics and
information that can lead to sound management policies. As more studies
are conducted on a variety of lake systems, the accumulated information
leads to the development of general concepts about how lakes function and
respond to environmental changes.

The condition of a lake at a given time is the result of the interaction of

many factorsits watershed, climate, geology, human influence, and
characteristics of the lake itself. With constantly expanding databases and
increased knowledge, limnologists and hydrologists are able to better
understand problems that develop in particular lakes, and further develop
comprehensive models that can be used to predict how lakes might change
in the future.

While the development of a limnological database and knowledge is

important, no amount of generalization can provide a full understanding or
predict conditions of any particular lake. Each lake system is unique, and its
dynamics can be understood only to a limited degree based on information
from other lakes. Just as a physician would not diagnose an individual's
medical condition or prescribe treatment without a personal medical
examination, a limnologist or hydrologist cannot accurately assess a lake
system or suggest a management strategy without data and analysis from
that particular lake and its environment. The following are some of the most
important basic factors that give unique character to each lake ecosystem.

Climate Temperature, wind, precipitation, and solar radiation all

critically affect the lake's hydrologic and chemical characteristics, and
indirectly affect the composition of the biological community.
Precipitation is the main factor affecting runoff and the delivery of
nutrients and sediments. Temperature, wind, and energy from the sun
affect lake stratification and mixing, plant growth, and evaporation.

Atmospheric inputs The surface of a lake is directly exposed to

atmospheric inputs. Not only wet precipitation, but also dry particles,
can be major sources of certain contaminants to a lake. Each lake also
receives indirect atmospheric inputs by way of the runoff from its
watershed.

Geologic substrate and soils in the basin The soil type affects
the potential for runoff and erosion. The physical characteristics of the
substrate determine the extent, nature, and quality of ground-water
inflows and outflows. These are primary factors affecting the lake's
chemistry, because of transfers between water and sediments, and
input of sediment, minerals, and nutrients from the watershed by
runoff water flowing into the lake.

Physiography The area, surface topography, existence of upstream

lakes and wetlands, altitude, and land slope of the lake's watershed
affect surface-water runoff and the amount and nature of chemicals
and sediments entering the lake. The physiography of the region
affects the size of a lake's watershed and ground-water contributing
area. The boundaries of a lake watershed and ground-water
contributing area may not necessarily coincide. Interactions with land
 use by people can appreciably change how these factors affect runoff
and the export of nutrients and sediment.

Land use The type, location, extent, and history of land cover/land
use (such as agriculture, rural, and urban developed areas) can greatly
affect the quantity of surface-water and ground-water inflows and
outflows, as well as the amounts and types of sediment, nutrients and
chemicals (natural or synthetic) that are transported into the lake from
the watershed.

Lake morphometry Size, shape, and depth characteristics of a lake

are critical in determining currents and mixing of the lake, as well as
its thermal and chemical stratification characteristics.

Common Environmental Problems in Lakes

and Probable Causes
Eutrophication is the natural process of physical, chemical, and biological
changes ("aging") associated with nutrient, organic matter, and silt
enrichment of a lake. If the natural process is accelerated by human
influences, it is termed "cultural" eutrophication. Lakes are subject to a
variety of physical, chemical, and biological problems that can diminish their
aesthetic beauty, recreational value, water quality, and habitat suitability.
Among the most common lake problems, and the conditions that often occur
with eutrophication are the following.

Algal blooms Extensive and rapid growth of planktonic (floating and

suspended) algae, caused by an increased input of nutrients (primarily
phosphorus, but occasionally can also be caused by nitrogen), is a
common problem in lakes (fig. 3). Lakes normally undergo aging over
time-scales of centuries or thousands of years, but the process can be
accelerated rapidly to only decades by human activities that cause
increases in sedimentation and nutrient inflow to the lake. Accelerated
eutrophication and excessive algal growth reduces water clarity,
inhibits growth of other plants, and can lead to extensive oxygen
depletion, accumulation of unsightly and decaying organic matter,
unpleasant odors, and fish kills.
Figure 3. Algal bloom and degraded water quality of a lake affected by nutrient
enrichment.

Sedimentation/turbidity Increases in accumulation and/or

resuspension of sediments can be a detriment to water quality and
habitat for many aquatic species. Such events usually are caused by
heavy rains that produce erosion and intense runoff, carrying heavy
sediment loads into lakes. High winds, boating activity, and bottom-
feeding fish, such as carp, may also resuspend bottom sediments and
increase turbidity.

Oxygen depletion Decreases in dissolved oxygen to less than 3

mg/L (milligrams per liter) in the water can be harmful or lethal to
many desirable species of aquatic life. The primary mechanism of
oxygen loss is consumption by high rates of respiration and organic
decomposition. Ideally, such consumption is offset by oxygen inputs
from the atmosphere and from photosynthesis by aquatic plants.
However, in stratified lakes, the atmospheric source is cut off from the
hypolimnion (deep lake layer), and oxygen concentrations in the
hypolimnion may decline to zero (anoxia) until the lake mixes again.
Under anoxic conditions, phosphorus may be released from the bottom
sediments into the overlying water. This "internal loading" may be
considerable with phosphorus-enriched sediments and prolonged
anoxia. Prolonged low oxygen concentrations in the summer or under
ice in the winter can lead to fish kills.

Growth of aquatic plants (macrophytes) Normal macrophytic

growth generally is beneficial for the lake ecosystem; among other
benefits, the plants provide refuge for fish and other organisms.
 However, in some lakes, the growth of aquatic plants ("weeds") can
become excessive and create a serious nuisance for lake users,
interfering with swimming, boating, and other recreational activities.
Excessive macrophytes commonly are caused by increased nutrients,
invasion of exotic species, or accumulation of organic sediment. The
improvement of water clarity resulting from management actions
designed to control algal production can provide better conditions for
growth of rooted plants.

Water-level changes Wide fluctuations in stage (lake level) can

create major hardships for lakeside residences, marinas, and
businesses, and they also may impair the habitat suitability for
nearshore biota. These changes most commonly are linked to weather
anomalies (extended periods of abnormally high or low precipitation),
but also may be associated with human activities such as withdrawals
for water use.

Species shifts Populations of desirable animal and plant species

might decline sharply or disappear, to be replaced by other species.
Usually, the new dominant species will become a nuisance and degrade
some or all desirable qualities of the lake. Species shifts can be caused
by introduction of invasive species that may have little or no natural
controls on their population growth, or are stimulated by changes in
environmental conditions (for example, climate changes, acidification
from "acid rain" or other changes in water chemistry, or physical
changes).

To diagnose or identify causes of problems, one must understand the

processes and interactions within the lake (among its morphometry, water
quality, algae, macrophytes, fish, and other fauna) and those between the
lake and its watershed (quantity and quality of inputs from precipitation,
surface water, ground water, and other localized sources). A combination of
natural factors within the watershed and the lake may be acting to produce a
fertile lake, and there may be little opportunity to improve its water-quality
condition by management actions. However, if human activities and
developments creating hydrologic modifications or increasing sediment and
nutrient inputs are the cause of accelerated eutrophication, then these
effects may be reduced by management measures in the watershed and (or)
the lake. Qualitative and quantitative limnological and hydrological
investigations can help to differentiate between natural and human-caused
problems and to identify possible solutions.
Purposes, Objectives, and Design of Lake
Studies
Lake studies are conducted to meet specific purposes, or combinations of
purposes, that support management activities and decisions made by a lake
association, lake district, or other private or governmental organizations.
Among the most common of these purposes are as follows.

Development and implementation of lake-management plans

Protection of present water quality

Restoration of former water quality

Watershed (land-use) planning and management

Wetland protection or restoration

Lake classification and local ordinance development

Protection of fish and wildlife and their habitats

The success of any lake study depends on development of appropriate

objectives, based on careful attention to the overall purpose(s) of the study.
A study plan, selection of methods, and a data-collection program for the
lake and its watershed then can be developed to acquire the information
necessary to achieve these objectives. Objectives of lake studies generally
include one or more of the following.

Assess current physical, chemical, and biological conditions

Determine how conditions are changing with time

Assess watershed characteristics (hydrology, water quality, land uses,

nutrient and sediment yields, and sources of nutrients)

Identify problems and opportunities for lake improvement

Determine causes of lake problems, and provide information that can

be used to design management actions, if any, that are feasible and
likely to be successful in treating the lake's problems
 Evaluate the effectiveness of implemented management measures and
determine whether they are performing as planned

Lake studies vary considerably in the amount and detail of information

gathered. The design of the study depends on its purpose and objectives.
Decisions about the types and frequency of data collection should be made
based on a cost/benefit assessment of each itemdo these data contribute to
fulfillment of the purpose and are their contributions sufficient to justify the
cost and effort of collecting them? The accuracy of results needed from the
study and the methods to be used (whether to rely on estimated rather than
measured data) depend on the type and severity of problems, and the social
and economic effects of decisions (management actions) that need to be
made to address the problems.

Types of Lake Studies

Lake studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Wisconsin District Lake
Studies Team are conducted to achieve many of these objectives, and
generally fall into various levels or types of studies, from simple to complex
(summarized in table 1). Each level grades to the next and may include
components of the type of study done in the lower levels, as well as
additional investigations. The Team's mission is to provide hydrologic, water
quality, and other scientific information to help describe current
characteristics and conditions of lakes, help identify and understand
problems, and help determine effective management actions to protect or
restore lakes in Wisconsin and the Nation. Information about the Wisconsin
District Lakes Program can be found
at http://wi.water.usgs.gov/projects/index.html. Nationally consistent
laboratory procedures and quality control are used by the USGS in
conducting these studies. The standards ensure that all data are directly
comparable from region to region in the country, and available from national
USGS databases.

Table 1. General summary of the types of lake studies and approaches used by the
USGS Wisconsin District Lake Studies Team to address study objectives

Monitoring studies

Objective: Assess current conditions and evaluate trends

Approach: Monitoring by USGS, volunteers (self-help), State or other

agencies; compare with other available data.

Diagnostic studies
Objective: Identify causes of problems

Approaches:A. Qualitative and semi-quantitative evaluation of sources of

problems. Use limited monitoring and data from other studies, compute
water and nutrient budgets from estimated data.

B. Quantitative evaluation of sources of problems. Monitoring measures

major components of water and nutrient budgets to provide greater
resolution of sources and causes.

Feasibility studies

Objective: Evaluate feasibility of possible solutions and effectiveness of

management practices

Approach: Incorporate many activities from the diagnostic approach above

plus evaluation of likely solutions. Monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of
improvement measures.

Monitoring Studies

Studies to assess current conditions and trends may be referred to as

monitoring studies because they usually entail collection of data
(monitoring), but little or no investigation of causes of problems, processes,
or ecosystem dynamics. Whether the study involves monitoring of only lake
stage, or a range of chemical and biological variables, it essentially is an
informational study. Monitoring may include review and evaluation of
available data, lake-level monitoring, and monitoring of in-lake physical,
chemical, and biological variables useful for describing the condition
(typically trophic status) of the lake, and comparing trophic state indicies
(Carlson, 1977) with other lakes in the region. Interpretation of the data
generally is limited to analysis of in-lake characteristics and possibly trends
(how the variables might be changing over time) if sufficient data are
available. Long-term data collection (greater than 5 years), using consistent
and comparable methods, is critical for differentiating real trends from short-
term climatic fluctuations. Trend analysis becomes continually more
meaningful and valuable as the length of time of monitoring increases.

Stage (lake-level) monitoring. This kind of data collection involves

monitoring of water level (stage) of the lake, and how it changes over time.
Stage monitoring also is used to determine changes in volume of lakes when
computing water budgets. These data can be readily and accurately obtained
with a staff gage read by an observer, or a stage recorder, which enables
automatic collection of continuous data at frequent preset time intervals. It
is particularly important to maintain the same datum over the period of
record at a gage. Devils Lake in Sauk County, and Fish Lake in Dane County
are examples of lakes that have been in this program for many years
(Wisconsin District Lake Studies Team, 2002).

In-lake water-quality monitoring. This effort routinely involves collection

of data on physical, chemical, and biological variables at intervals during the
year. Sampling times for most lakes are commonly during late winter (to
determine conditions under ice cover), at spring overturn when the lake is
mixed, and monthly during the summer (June through August). The list of
variables to monitor and sampling frequencies may be modified for each
lake, depending on the characteristics of the lake and problems experienced.

Physical, chemical, and biological variables that may be monitored in lakes

to fulfill certain study purposes are listed in table 2. Items 1, 2, 3A, and 3B
in the table commonly are included in many lake monitoring studies. Depth
profiles of field variables can be measured quickly on-site with multi-
parameter instruments. These variables are measured at closely spaced
intervals (generally 0.51 meters depending on the depth of the lake) from
the surface to the bottom, to determine changes in temperature, dissolved
oxygen, pH, and specific conductance with water depth (figs. 4 and 5). Other
variables that require collection of water samples and analyses in the
laboratory, particularly chemical (such as phosphorus and nitrogen) and
biological samples, commonly are sampled at two or more depths.

Table 2. Commonly measured variables for monitoring lakes, and usual depth
intervals where sampled

[NS, near surface; NB, near bottom; profile, multiple depths at one site,
from surface to bottom; Sed, in bottom sediments; TSI, trophic state index;
A, as appropriate for species sampled]
Variable Depth
1. Water level (stage) water surface
2. Common field and TSI variables:
A. Water transparency (Secchi depth, light penetration) NS
B. Water temperature profile
C. Dissolved oxygen profile
D. pH (acidity) profile
E. Specific conductance profile
F. Chlorophyll1 NS
3. Chemical variables:
 NS, NB,
A. Nutrients (phosphorus, nitrogen)
intermediate
B. Major cations and anions NS/NB
C. Organic carbon NS/NB, Sed
D. Synthetic organic compounds NS/NB, Sed
E. Trace elements, metals NS/NB, Sed
4. Ecological/biological variables
A. Phytoplankton (algae/floating plants) NS
B. Macrophytes (plants rooted in lake bottom) near-shore area
C. Primary productivity 2
NS
D. Attached algae bottom
E. Benthic organisms (bottom-dwelling animals) NB/Sed
F. Zooplankton (small animals, usually crustaceans, in
A
water)
G. Fish A

1
usually chlorophyll a (Chl a) a measure of density and activity of algae
2
primary productivity (PPR) a measure of photosynthesis; (less common
measurement than Chl a)
Figure 4. Measurement of lake water-quality profiles with a multi-parameter
water-quality instrument.

Figure 5. Graphs showing typical profile data for water temperature and dissolved
oxygen (Powers Lake, Kenosha County, Wis.).

The profile measurements and samples generally are taken at a

representative site, located at or near the deepest part (the "deep hole") of
the lake. Additional monitoring may be done at other sites in strategic
locations to characterize specific features of the lake system, such as inflows
and outflows, multiple deep basins, or additional bays of complex-shaped
lakes (Holdren, Jones, and Taggart, 2001).

Data from these measurements and samples provide a basis for scientific
assessment of lake condition and common lake problems. For example,
profile data may show the extent of dissolved oxygen depletion over the
summer, and nutrient data may identify high concentrations of available
phosphorus for algal growth or phosphorus release from bottom sediments.
Combined with data on water transparency (Secchi depth) and algal pigment
(chlorophyll a), these data support calculation of the lake's trophic state
index (TSI) (fig. 6), which is a quantitative, objective measure of the current
state of the lake in the eutrophication process. Okauchee Lake in Waukesha
County is an example of a lake in this study type with long-term data. This
lake has been monitored for water quality since 1984 (Wisconsin District
Lake Studies Team, 2002). About 100 lakes throughout the State have been
monitored at this level by the USGS since mid-1980.
Figure 6. Total phosphorus and trophic state index (TSI) data for Okauchee Lake,
Waukesha County, Wis., 19842002.

Diagnostic Studies

Studies to diagnose problems and identify possible solutions, generally

termed diagnostic studies, extend beyond monitoring to include more
complex data collection, analysis of the hydrologic system and processes,
and interpretation. The objectives of these studies usually include
quantifying the problems, defining causes of the problems, and identifying
possible solutions. Results commonly are used in the development of lake-
management plans. These studies usually include basic data collection, but
the studies go further, to include searches for answers to questions such as:
How severe are the problems? What are the major sources of nutrients and
causes of the problems? What are the most likely solutions?

Diagnostic studies commonly include activities that:

monitor and quantify the major inflows to and outflows from the lake
to develop a detailed water budget for the lake;

determine phosphorus and sediment loads associated with major water

inflow and outflow source, and develop a detailed phosphorus budget
for the lake, thereby providing a better understanding of the problems
and sources of nutrients;

evaluate lake water quality in relation to water and nutrient loading by

the use of lake water-quality models, such as the Wisconsin Lake
Modeling Suite, WiLMS (Panuska and Kreider, 2002).

Methods used in studies at this level vary greatly and may include both
qualitative and quantitative methods based on estimates from the literature
and previous studies, and on monitored data. Studies are designed to fit the
hydrologic conditions, severity of problems, accuracy desired, and objectives
of the study. Various components of the water and phosphorus budgets may
be estimated or measured. Phosphorus usually is the nutrient that limits
algal growth (Guildford and Hecky, 2000). Precipitation is measured by a
recording rain gage or estimated from nearby National Weather Service
station data. Phosphorus input from precipitation is estimated from
published values. Evaporation usually is estimated from published
evaporation values. Surface-water inflow and outflow may be determined by
recording streamflow-gaging stations (fig. 7) near the mouths of major
tributaries and at the lake outlet. Surface-water flows are sampled and
analyzed for phosphorus and sediment concentrations. Streamflow data,
along with the concentration data, are used to determine the annual
phosphorus inputs and losses. Phosphorus input (load) from surface water
may be estimated by a regression approach (Cohn and others, 1989;
Robertson and Roerish, 1999) with limited concentration data collected
manually, or may be computed more accurately by using an integration
technique (Porterfield, 1972) with extensive concentration data from
frequent water sampling by observers or automatic water samplers. Inflow
from small unmonitored watershed areas usually is estimated through the
use of runoff coefficients using data from the nearby gaged watersheds, or
tributary loads may be estimated by applying unit-area loads from
previously monitored small watersheds (Corsi and others, 1997).

Figure 7. Typical U.S. Geological Survey recording streamflow-gaging station with

automatic water sampler for load determinations (Photograph by W.J. Rose).

Net ground-water flow to the lake may be calculated as the residual in the
water-budget equation, or determined by analyzing water-level data from
piezometers (small-diameter wells, usually 1 inch or less) installed around
the periphery of the lake and applying a two-dimensional ground-water-flow
model, such as GFLOW (Haitjema, 1995) to the area. Water from nearshore
piezometers is sampled and analyzed to measure phosphorus concentrations
in ground water and to determine the loading from ground water. Data for
the flows and loads from the various sources are then used to construct
water and phosphorus budgets for the lake (fig. 8).
Figure 8. Hydrologic and phosphorus budgets of Little St. Germain Lake, Wis.,
1997 and 1999 (from Robertson and Rose, 2000).

Qualitative and semi-quantitative study approaches to evaluate problems are

appropriate for lakes with less-severe problems and lower-cost solutions,
where less-accurate results may be adequate (table 1). Quantitative study
approaches, where major water and nutrient-budget components are
measured directly, provide greater accuracy of results but at a higher cost.
These studies are more appropriate for lakes with severe, complex
problems. Diagnostic studies may typically require 3 to 5 years to complete.
Information and data discussed above are essential for understanding lake
problems, identifying major sources and the relative importance of nutrient
inputs, and identifying effective management strategies that can be used for
developing lake and watershed management plans. Examples of recently
completed lake diagnostic studies are Muskellunge and Little St. Germain
Lakes in Vilas County (Robertson and Rose, 2000; 2003), Lake St. Croix in
western Wisconsin (Robertson and Lenz, 2002), and Lauderdale Lakes in
Walworth County (Garn and others, 1996). Diagnostic studies have been
conducted by the USGS for about 25 lakes in Wisconsin.

Feasibility Studies

Studies to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of management

measures, referred to as feasibility studies, go beyond diagnostic studies but
generally incorporate many of the same activities. Studies include objectives
similar to diagnostic studies, but also may include greater definition of the
problems and causes, evaluation of solutions, and model simulation of future
conditions. These lakes generally have more complex lake and watershed
factors affecting water quality and usually have multiple or severe problems.
Expensive restoration and protection measures often are being considered in
such lakes, or they may already be in progress. These studies often are
longer term than those for diagnostic studies, and may include monitoring to
evaluate the effectiveness of implemented management measures (such as
watershed practices that reduce nutrient loading, lake aeration, or treatment
of bottom sediment). The studies may address questions such as: How has
the lake changed in recent years or decades, and how do those changes
relate to environmental changes, watershed characteristics, or land uses?
What management measures would be most effective? Are treatments
working as planned? What kinds of changes can be expected in the future?
Various kinds of modeling techniques (watershed models, ground-water
models, and lake models) may be applied to predict water-quality changes
based on collected data and to evaluate the feasibility of solutions, thus
providing information that can be used to design treatments.

These studies commonly include the components of diagnostic studies, but

additionally include activities that:

describe historical changes in lake water quality resulting from outside

effects;

relate the measured water and contaminant loads to observed and

modeled water quality within the lake; and
 apply a calibrated lake model to predict how potential increases or
decreases in phosphorus loading may effect the trophic status of the
lake.

Lake water-quality models, such as BATHTUB (Walker, 1996) or the

Wisconsin Lake Modeling Suite, WiLMS (Panuska and Kreider, 2002) may be
used to evaluate and predict lake water quality relative to different
phosphorus-loading scenarios. Interpretation may include assessment of
probable responses to increases or decreases in nutrient loading that might
result from various development and management scenarios within the
lake's watershed, and prediction of probable outcomes of different
management strategies. Lake studies at this level have been conducted at
Delavan Lake (Robertson and others, 2000) and Geneva Lake in Walworth
County (Robertson and others, 2002).

Sources of Funding
Two popular programs in Wisconsin that help fund lake studies are those of
the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Lake Planning and
Protection Grant Program, (described
athttp://www.dnr.state.wi.us/org/water/fhp/lakes/lkgrants.htm) and the
USGS Cooperative Water Program. State grants can provide up to 75-
percent funding to lake districts, lake associations, and other qualified local
organizations and agencies for lake planning and management activities; the
remaining 25 percent of project cost is provided by the local agency or lake
district. The USGS Cooperative Water Program is a long-standing partnership
between USGS and State and local governments for funding data collection
and water-resources studies. Under this program the USGS may provide
matching funding presently up to 40 percent of the total cost of the study to
collect hydrologic data and conduct investigations, in cooperation with any
local or State agency.

Lake Studies an Investment for the Future

Preservation of our lakes for their beauty and recreational benefits, as well
as for their value as habitats for fish and wildlife, is of paramount
importance. During the past century, our understanding of lakes has
advanced considerably. Whereas we once were relatively unaware of the
sensitivity of lakes to disturbances within their basins and watersheds, we
are now much more alert to this sensitivity, and, consequently, we are more
careful about actions that could accelerate lake deterioration. Lake studies,
which contribute to general and specific knowledge of lake systems, require
commitment of considerable effort and funding, but this commitment leads
to major improvement of the likelihood of developing successful lake-
management strategies and avoiding costly problems in the future. The goal
of lake monitoring is to identify small changes in conditions so that remedial
work can start before a lake has degraded extensively and expensive
restoration measures are necessary. Lake monitoring is an investment for
the future with potential for high returns.

"The future water quality of Wisconsin's lakes lies in the wise management
of our natural resources. Shoreline and land- use management, nonpoint-
source pollution control, and control of toxic wastes are all critically
important elements in protecting Wisconsin's many lakes." (Lillie and Mason,
1983)