Beyond the Candles

Beyond the Candles

Presentation:

I'm a technical trader and this is not my method, it is a market's method. It is based on
what we hear every day long:
-trade with the trade
-trade the retracements of the main trend.
This is long-live proved method and what I will explain here it is only what is works for
me and the way it does !

The method.

a-Identify if the price is trendy market(up/down) on monthly and weekly charts, wait
for a retracement with price action confirmation and entry on daily chart (buy at
resistance and sell at support level).
b-Identify if the price is consolidating on monthly and weekly charts, wait the price to
reach the top (down trend) and the bottom (up trend) and trade the consolidation in
the main trend direction on daily chart.

The trading process has few rules/steps:

The market study

-the process of identifying what the price is doing: trend or range market.
-the process of identifying the support/resistance levels.

Psychology
-plan the trade-one of the most important in trading process is the trade plan,
understanding what the price is doing, who is in the market control, waiting for the
price to reach our levels and the emotion control.
We accept and we are taking all the responsibility for our actions as trades, entries,
exits, etc.

Trading decision
-the fase when we have the confirmation by who is in the market control. we have a
trading decision only if the price does what we are expecting, for all the rest of market
situationwe stay out.

Entry
-only with price action confirmation to the choosen levels
-only with pending orders
-only above/bellow the first daily support/resistance level

Stop loss
-above/bellow the current swing
-above/bellow the first daily support/resistance level

Money management
-could be very different in base of our market analyse: trend/range market
-money management in trendy market: a-stop loss moved behind the last daily swing;
b-stop loss moved behind the last weekly candle; c-stop loss moved behind the
choosen levels (with daily entries, we are looking for monthly and weekly levels+
confluences); d-partial taking profit.
-money management in range market: a-the stop loss at break even as soon as
possible: b-quickly partial profits of the most important levels from the inside of
consolidation.

Risk
-all of the trades dont have to exceed 2-3% of accounts size.
-capital preservation.

Exit
-to the support/resistance levels
-to the reverse candle/patterns
Trades analyse
-after every trade, we analyse it in order to learn from our own experience the positive
and negative aspects of our trades.

Tools
-price action candles
-support/resistance levels
-patterns
-confluences
-trend lines
-channels
-Big Round Numbers and Round Numbers
-Fibbonacci levels.

Thread rules
-respect
-friendly environment
-no time frame lower than daily
-I lost pips and precious time with dreamsso no EA, lagging lines, indicators, etc.
Just a simple, clean chart with proper attitude is the best way to start being profitable !

Disclaimer
-the purpose of this thread is trading education/ experience to high quality level
-every trader is responsible for his own actions.

Thank you
fxgroup.

Abbreviations used:

P-PRICE
WPD-WHAT THE PRICE IS DOING
WPG-WHERE THE PRICE IS GOING
BUOB-BULLISH OUTSIDE BAR
BEOB-BEARISH OUTSIDE BAR
PB-PIN BAR
DBLHC-DOUBLE BAR LOW HIGHER CLOSE
DBHLC-DOUBLE BAR HIGH LOWER CLOSE
IB-INSIDE BAR
S-SUPPORT
R-RESISTANCE
SW-SWING
C-CLOSE
O-OPEN
PA-PRICE ACTION
RN-ROUND NUMBER
TL-TREND LINE
RET-RETRACEMENT
CT-COUNTER TREND
SL-STOP LOSS
TP-TAKING PROFIT
BE-BREAK EVEN
RT-RETEST
H-HAMMER
SS-SHINING STAR
IH-INVERTED HAMMER
HM-HANGING MAN
IPB-INVERTED PIN BAR
MM-MONEY MANAGEMENT
RM-RANGE MARKET
DT-DOUBLE TOP
DB-DOUBLE BOTTOM
LL-LOWER LOW
LH-LOWER HIGH
HH-HIGHER HIGH
HL-HIGHER LOW
TF-TIME FRAME
M-MONTHLY
W-WEEKLY
D-DAILY
NCA-NO CLOSE ABOVE
NCB-NO CLOSE BELLOW
PTT&TTP-PLAN THE TRADE&TRADE THE PLAN

1 chart

Let's see some simple charts !

The price breakouts of the range market in up trend,at that point we start to look on daily chart how
the old resistance of the range market becomes support for the next price evolution.
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2 chart

The overall trend is down, the price closes bellow the range market support and becomes resistance.
With the price action confirmation, the price continues its way to monthly+ weekly support.
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A chart with an explanation of how we read a chart, entry, target and exit !
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1 step

1 step of trading process= market study.

-what is price doing= range market.
-identification of the most important levels whithin the consolidation.
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Looking to a chart

I see the market as a battle between buyers and sellers.

This is a personally interpretation of what I see when I look to a chart.
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The same chart with two kind of support/ resistance levels: static& dynamic.
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Waiting for confirmation.

Monthly in range market with sellers and buyers at identyfied levels.

1-buob weekly-the buyers are strong but they can't close above the level, they don't have yet the
level's control.
2-buob daily-the buyers finally pushed the price inside of mothly range market and take the control
of the level with buob as confirmation.
The first target is the first and the most important level within the range market, meanwhile the final
target is the resistance of the monthly range market.
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2 step

Psychology

Planning the trade and waiting the price to give us the confirmations at our levels.
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Some exemples of how I put and use the first type of support/ resistance levels.
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[quote=Ainks;5003590]
Quote:

hi fxgroup

nice thread you got here..

i have one questions

hi Ainks, even more ..
Quote:

can we apply this to lower time-frame like H1 or M30?

do we still looking for monthly/weekly trend? or H4/Daily trend is enough for lower time-frame
trading?
Yes, this method is based on price and the price is the price in any time frame and any
market....but...in lower time frame the profit/money management levels are very closed and you
have to be very fast, the time for analyse,time decision, etc becomes very tight. If you add the
volatility ....!
For H1 or M30 you have to monitor the trade every hour or 30 min and personally I belive that the
trading should be a positive part of our lives and not to take us away from the families, friends and
to stick us to the monitor. Just mine.

Thanks Ainks.

Quote:
I think the problem is how to look for clue when the trend is reach bottom or top , will the price
reverse or continue the trend after breakour from consolidation zone , when a breakout is
weak/false or strong ?
Maybe you can inform us what sort of clue that you use..is it only S/R , Fibo retracement or
something else new ?
Hi andri66

The purpose of this thread is to learn how to read the price, buyers& sellers, what the price doing
and where the price going, but, in the safetiest way ! Picking tops& bottoms could be very dangerous
for our accounts without a good market base.
To recognize the tops& bottoms there are trading advanced stuffs as market psychology or market
dynamic...step by step we will get there !
Quote:

Many thanks & Good Luck !!

Thanks to you sir !
hi fxgroup

a good thread. i like plain chart trading. u r v good. i am learning such plain chart trading but
with 1 or 2 indy and incorporate with RN + PA. pls. continue posting

cheers

p.s. any comment on gold, silver, e-u, g-u?

p.s.2. which MT4 u r using as i saw u have eur-sgd (interesting)?
hi tradpat

p.s. gold-the long term buyers start to close their positions and re-bought to a lower price. Still
HH+HL and with buyers on weekly(W), I'm looking for a consolidation.
silver-the sellers are looking for the dynamic support(S).
e-u-sellers channel
g-u-sellers till the triangle will start the congestion.

p.s.2 fxpro& others for charts.

Thanks for your partecipation.

O.K. Let's talk about levels !

The supports and resistences are those levels where the traders enter in the market, are taking
profits, the traders turns back to find more buyers/sellers or close their positions, demand, supply,
etc.The Price is attracted/pushed to/by these levels.

There are 2 types of support/resistance levels: static and dynamic. At this stage of the thread, we
will use the first criteria to identify the best static support/resistence levels that could give us an
early advantage in the market: the candle/swing's OPEN/ CLOSE.

Here are some charts !

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Quote:
Nice to have another pa-patterns-TL's chartist on board.
Nice to have you arround !
Quote:

I prefer Gann Fans to fib retraces, but each to their own.

I tried to study some Gann stuffs, but personally it just doesn't fit me ! INMHO.
I have more rules: for trading and life, but in top of all the rules is THE SIMPLICITY , and in
this thread I'll try to show how the simplicity works for me !
Quote:

A hastily done contribution

 ....but a useful one !

GBPUSD-strong bearish trend in all the TF, but very close to a very strong triangle .
The weekly candle closed as an inside bar to 1.5340.At this moment, I wait to see who is in
triangle+ level control: buyers or sellers and after a confirmation in higher TF, I'm looking for a
daily retracement.
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Practice
Let's see an exemple of how we read the price but most of all how we put in practice the method.
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Retracement with the trend and the importance of the swing's open/close.
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gbpjpy study

My trading is based on two questions:

1-WPD= what the price doing ?
2-WPG= where the price is going ?

gbpjpy exemple

WPD- the price is making range market (consolidating) in bearish overall trend.
1= The sellers pushed the price back into monthly range market,the buyers try to defend the
resistance level, but the sellers are strong, closing with a pin bar with the trend bellow the
resistence= sellers confirmation.

WPG- to support level of the monthly range market.

P.S. We don't need fancy stuffs on our charts, just a very few important levels and knowing how to
read the price is all we really need !
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Monthly levels are are very strong on daily chart .
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This is clear exemple of safety trading reading the price with well known target.
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Very important level, the most safety entry with the main trend is to wait the sellers confirmation of
our level.
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The price reached a very important level.

The buyers succeded to close above the level, but the sellers have shown their forses at the level.
Now, the buyers turned the price back to the level.
It will be interesting to watch and learn from the battle's development for the level !
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The weekly close will tell us everything we need to know.

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The price reached a very important level.

 The buyers succeded to close above the level, but the sellers have shown their forses at the
level.
Now, the buyers turned the price back to the level.
It will be interesting to watch and learn from the battle's development for the level !
Do you remember this post ? Let's see the price today !
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PTT&TTP

Waiting for " Plan the Trade& Trade the Plan " .
This is what I'm looking for:
Monthly in bearish overall trend,weekly in range market and daily in range market. I will wait the
price to close bellow the weekly level what act as supports for the daily range market and to see the
sellers confirmation of 1.3678 as resistance.
1.3284+1.2934 are the MM levels (1 and 2 targets for taking profit).
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The weekly close will tell us everything we need to know.

The price is getting back into the weekly range market, under the pressure of the weekly inverted
pin bar. Untill now, the price did exactly what we plan, right now all we have to do is to wait the
buyers confirmation at the range market's support.
It will be fun to follow the price evolution !

A nice exemple to identify support/ resistance levels with the overall trend and to watch how the
price reacts at these levels.
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Quote:
what pair are u trading now?
I'm trading every pair that gives a good setup. For me a good setup means that market situation
when I understand what the price doing and where is price going.
Quote:

Or spotted good setups to trade?

This thread doesn't want to be a signal service and never be. All I want to do is to show just a
different perspective of reading the price and to show the people interested on, what/ how it works
for me.

which currency pair are you in the trade now? for example, EURUSD? GBPUSD?
At which day? At what price?
Picture tells a thousand words. Can you show the point at which you execute your trade, so we
(followers of your thread), can benefit more?
One of the trades that gives me more satisfaction is chfjpy.

1-pin bar(PB)=sellers confirmation, that closes bellow the level and bellow the trend
line(TL)=sellers reaction and the first order not filled
2-inside bar(IB) that closes bellow the level=the order remain at the same level, but the SL
put lower allowing me to increase the size position.
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Why things happens ?

Just take a look where today candle stoped !

Coincidence ? I just don't belive in coincidences !
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I've made this post almost 4 months ago.
Let's see what is happened after and WPD (what price doing)+WPG (where price going).
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Long term analyse.
Monthly-channel
Weekly-at the level and the buyers put pressure in order to get out of the range market
D-at important level and the first level's reaction with today candle that can't close above.
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O.K. Let's talk about levels !

The supports and resistences are those levels where the traders enter in the market, are taking
profits, the traders turns back to find more buyers/sellers or close their positions, etc.The Price is
attracted/pushed to these livels.

At this stage of the thread, we will use the first criteria to identify the best support/resistence levels
that could give us an early advantage in the market: the bar/candle/swing's OPEN/CLOSE.

Here's a chart! Take a look on W and D and tell me what do you see !
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 And as I trade this system (monthly and weekly S/R and entries on daily pinbar and outside
bar), but drawing the lines through the highs and lows, I played around with the cross hairs and
saw just the accuracy and reliability of the S/R lines on CLOSE and OPEN. Look just to the areas
you mentioned and see the precision, with which price bounced and touched the lines!
hi Milton
For me, the levels drown to O/C are one of the most important tool. Personally, I use 3 type of
static levels and 3 of dynamic, but, the O/C of the static levels are by far the most important.

Here it is a trading opportunity that I missed, reading the price upon the S/R levels:
Monthly/M)= range market(RM)
Weekly(W)=range market
Daily(D)=range market at the R level, the sellers pushed the price down and closed bellow the
D RM with the 10.10 candle.
10.11-pin bar(PB) the buyers try to defend the level but the sellers are stronger and give us
the first sellers confirmation
10.12-DBHLC the second sellers confirmation.
WPD= RM
WPG= to the RM S(support) and confluence.
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Looking at the Daily I would say we are approaching critical resistance levels. ( pardon my
charts , charting package is atrocious )
Don't worry for the charts my friend, as long as we are able to see beyond the

candles... !
We really have the price close to an important level and with a big monthly(M) patterns in
charge. It will be interesting to watch what the price does(WPD) at our level, even we have
allready an idea...but...we trade facts not ideas!
 P.S. One of the best and efficient way to osserve the price is the old, classic way: take a
monthly(M) chart, put a level to the most important swings(SW) or range market(RM), make
the same thing on weekly(W) chart and then, osserve the price on a daily(D) chart.
I know, it is a very common practice, but it works for me...higher TF levels in smaller TF really
work !

This is a good exemple of how to read a chart and to wait for the confirmation from higher TF.
Trading the retracement with the trend is the safiest way to start being profitable.
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M-down trend and closes bellow a very important level.
W-double top(DT) and closed bellow the level with dbhlc as sellers confirmation
D-after the sellers succeded to get out of the range market(RM), they give us two confirmations: pin
bar(PB)+ beob as confirmation that the sellers are in market's control.
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EURCHF becomes tighter and tighter and tighter and accumulates energy...when it will release all
this energy...!
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Which right one

1st

or 2nd
hi forja
It is an honour to me that you start your activity on FF, right here in this thread.
If your question is....witch one of two levels I would consider, I would ask you that the second
one seems better.

If you have doubts or questions, just ask !

If you have charts or analysis, just post !

Thanks for your contribution !

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If it closes above the trend line...19.16 is the target.
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 Thank you so much for your answer, i still have some question

1. if low's candle A is equal with close candle B or open's candle C (on this case is not) , can i
take it as resistance?

2. no any retest on H1 ( lower time frame ), retest on 30 m only, and its first lower high on 30
minute chart, did u'll buy it?

thank you
A level in higher TF remains a strong level in smaller TF .
Let's see an exemple.

Put some charts with levels form higher TF and with the price reaction on smaller TFs and we'll
discuss them.
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W and M still down trend, but on D price is up...did u'll buy it?

thanks
 Take a look on D at my level and tell me what do you see !
Untill I see a close above 1.5990 this pair is out of game for those who aren't allready in.
Do you remember the triangle ? Watch the confluence with my level !
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1.5990(1.6 RN)
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Why price stalled at this level ?
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Hi fxgroup..
Hi oconnor.
Quote:

Quick question from another noob..( sorry if its sounds silly )

 here are no silly questions...otherwise I wouldn't start this thread!...
Quote:

how do you draw your horizontal line on the monthly.?

Let's call it static level in order to be able to make the difference.
Quote:

Are you looking at the places where price has been supported and rejected at the most frequent
points?..
As I said,personally I use 3 types of static level,but at this stage of the thread, we will study
only the first one: OPEN/CLOSE candle/ swing. To draw the level I'm looking to the most
important swings and to those levels that acted more often as S and R.
[qote]Then you go to weekly and see how its reacting around that same point..and on down to
daily?...will you then trade off the daily depening on the candle type?,..( strong rejection or ir
if it breaks up a further confirmation of support in the GBP/USD chart you just posted )...
[/quoted] Yes, exactly...but I wait ALWAYS the level's confirmation as S/R. Even if I look to a D
chart, the level remains at the same as I identified on M/W.
Quote:

Thanks for great thread

Thak you for your contribution.
All you need to know,just ask !
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PTT& TTP

Here is an exemple of how I read a chart, but most of all how I plan a trade.
The safiest entry is after the weekly candle closed.
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personally i start doing some money in forex only after i started using s/r but even now i dont
know why at some arreas of support combined with a positive pin bar it goes downg .not even
touching the previous resistan area .sorry for my bad english.....and thank u for sharing with us
your knowledge btw i have read somwhere this:,,I forgot to mention, TRENDS WORK ON EVERY
TIME FRAME. Try to think of every trend as just a retracement on a higher time frame. What
looks like an uptrend on the H1 may just be a test of resistance on a downtrend on the...
Hi vladutz,
Yes you are right, every trend in a TF could be a retracement in a higher TF...but...we are trying to
identify the end of a D trend(as retracement) and to wait the D to turn in higher TF direction in able
to keep the trades as long as possible. If someone decides to trade only in D direction, obviously he
must to know if it is a short or long term direction .
The double top(DT)/ double bottom(DB) are not always right on the same level.

P.S. I'm glad that you start make money when you understod that the market is price, buyers,
sellers, S, R and I'm sure that if you will look more at higher TF ,you will make even more !
 How did you deal with false breakout ?
I use elements of market dynamic, market psychology and volatility, that it will be explained later,
but the best and safiest way is to wait first the higher TF confirmation and only after to wait a D
retracement (RET).
Quote:

does the difference of MT4 Server time effect the daily and monthly close ?
No, the candles could look different, but once we learn to read the price beyond the candles...we'll
see only buyers+sellers.
Quote:

how did you chose your trade ..?

The best way for my trading selection is to pick ONLY those market situations when I understand
WPD+WPG. If I don't understand these 2 question, I better stay out.Another situation is when I
undersatand WPD+WPG, but I see no trend and only battle between buyers and sellers.
Quote:

theoretically and based on your method most of pairs will have a trading chance most of times
because we enter the market in both trending and ranged condition...so if you have more than
chance in the same time how did you choose or pick your trades ...
Always better with the main trend, in RM with a tighter MM and in the main trend's direction is safer.
Quote:

finally i hope you will give us more examples in how we will to manage SL and TP
I will.

i wonder why you want to buy it, on M and W chart still no higher low available yet, can u tell
 me ur reason to wait buy signal?

thanks
M-strong buyers inside the RM in process.
W-DB, buyers closed above the last LH(lower high) and above the TL(trend line) that
controlled the price for the 59 weeks(08.08.2010) and the price in W channel
D-bullish flag+ DB
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I`ve recently switched over to pure PA trading now with much better success.

I have also found the 150 and 365 moving averages to be beneficial as well, work very well
when used as support and resistance.

Daily and 4hr examples.

I used myself for a time the MA, but I quit in the moment when I decide to understand the price in
base of buyers and sellers. You will find many entries using MA, but the MA will don't say why or
where the price is going and why is going there.
In order to understand better what I say, take any 5 charts, put 5 different MAs (20, 50, 150, 200,
365) and analize the price arround the MAs. Every time you will get the same result. At the levels
where the price meet the MAs, look for price levels from the past of the swings, candles,etc and you
will be suprised by what you'll find.

one of the biggest problem of using lines aka trend lines and support and resistance being this
line very subjective i try to use your concept to draw the lines on candles close but find 100 pip
difference in M chart the place of this level is the core of the method ...and most of time i had to
but it in the middle of previous top and bottoms because no single line will pass through ... if i
feel suspicious about the levels and start to adjust it a little up and down and start to guessing is
the price now above or below ?.....
Maybe a chart like this(and I will show you even more), will make you change yor vision !
Quote:

based on your experience had did u get over this ?

We have to accept the price, we don't have to trade every candle or to pretend to understand
the market all the days, we are intersted only by those market situation when we understand
WPD+ WPG.Step by step I will explain everything in this thread.
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 this is what i do and usually i make money but i know that i need to improve my trading skiils
There are two types of traders:
1- the traders who trade and take positions on long term in base on higher TF,but with entries
in smallers TF,trading the retracements, when the targets and MM are based uppon TF.
2- the traders who trade form first S to first R and viceversa.Their chart analyze, entries, MM
and targets are based upon the same TF.

Bouth are very profitable,but requires different menthality and risk disponibility. On this thread
we study the trading of type nr. 1 and this is an exemple.
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 so it will be very helpful to explain the meaning how this identify this " swing" and minimum
swing size that create a considerable Price level to use ...
My first criteria to identify the S/ R levels is the O/ C of the swings. Someone could ask..ok,
but what are the swings that we have to pay more attention? The answer is: in RM we
consider the higher/ lowest limit of the range market. We should pay attention also to the
most important swings that influenced the price inside of the RM, because it could be used as
levels for MM into the RM trading.
Let's see an exemple and read the price:
1- the buyers defend the most important level into the RM
2= BEOB- the sellers take the RM's control
3- the buyers retrace to the level,but the can't close above, three dojis as the battle between
the sellers and buyers
4=BEOB-confirmation of the fact that the sellers are in level's control(could be the first entry)
5= bearish flag as retracement(RET) to the level
6= PB-the price(P) closes bellow the flag, RET to the level+flag and give us a PB as sellers
confirmation and entry point as the chart. The target is the RM S.
Quote:

it will be nice also if you answer my question .in my previous post ....
We are trying to identify WPD+WPG and we are interested only by those market's situation
when we know the answers to these questions. We don't want to predict the price for 3 or 6
months, the Price is the king and make whatever it wants, we are reading what it's doing and
we are trade WITH the price and NOT AGAINST it.
Quote:

i will start to post some of my charts on daily weekly and monthly for further discussion....
thanks
We look forward !
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he buyers are pushing strongly. Now the price is in M RM. The W close as PA will tell and give us the
confirmation if the price remain within RM or the buyers will close above and the RM will act as S to
the next levels.
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 it is stronger level but i think is touch the high & low not close ... which lead me to question
some times if i respect the close of monthly bar while drawing my levels it pass through weekly
candles ...whats your advice in similar cases ....
When on higher TF we don't have M+W levels BEEING ON HISTORIC LOWS, the only levels
and the most accurate remain the D(in this case the D highs and lows of the candle).
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Waiting for " Plan the Trade& Trade the Plan " .
This is what I'm looking for:
Monthly in bearish overall trend,weekly in range market and daily in range market. I will wait
the price to close bellow the weekly level what act as supports for the daily range market and to
see the sellers confirmation of 1.3678 as resistance.
1.3284+1.2934 are the MM levels (1 and 2 targets for taking profit).
Do you remember this post?
Did you had the curiosity to watch the price of this pair?
Take a look at the price....TODAY !
Right to our target...and I'm not talking from something from the past, I'm talking about a live
planning a trade !
You don't have to belive me...just take a look to YOUR chart !

This is a clear exemple of one of the advantages of this methodology.

How many traders would have traded that BEOB as PA candle of the yellow range market....but
reading the price in weekly chart, we allready know WPD+ with the PB at the RM R that now act as
S, we have the buyers confirmation.
Attached Thumbnails

1.32 the next target. We said this a few weeks ago.

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All the market analyze are made ONLY with the candle CLOSED.
We HAVE TO wait the W candle's close in order to see if the buyers could take the R's control or the
sellers could still keep the price into the RM.
I know at this moment the W candle seems delicious, but by the end of the week, a lot of things
could happen.
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Today the candle looks allready different. This is one of the reasons why we have to wait the candle's
close.
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The weekly close will tell us everything we need to know.

We put this post few weeks ago..let's see the same pair today.
We said that the weekly candle will say if the price turns back in RM weekly and the S level of
the RM will act again as S for a price's evolution to the RM's R(resistance).
The price did exactly what we plan and obvious we have traded our plan.
Attached Thumbnails
A retest of 1.6 for some buyers will push the price up to the triangle.
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This is another exemple of how we read the price with this methodology.

WPD-Weekly= range market. The prise get out fo the RM and retest it with PB as buyers
confirmation (double bottom also-DB-).
WPG-the 1 target is a clearly S/R level.
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yes, the InvPB on NZDUSD weekly was a sign for me.
A few days ago I was talking with a trader friend about the pair nzdusd and I said to him, on M chart
I see HL and HH meanwhile on W chart I see LL+LH..so..for me..in a bullish overall trend the sellers
had a strong reaction against the buyers. Looking to the daily candles I see buyers followed by
sellers with a volatility more than usual. All these elements make me think that on this pair the
buyers are fighting with sellers and untill this situation doesn't become clear..the price could do
whatever it wants...I prefer to stay apart.
Quote:

Also great examples audcad and eurgbp !

..and much more will come !
Quote:

If I may I would like to ask how you go about trading this style on a daily/weekly
routine.....assuming that you always wait for daily bar closes at least, does that mean you enter
trades most often at about 5:00 p.m. EST ( US ) ? Or do you wait until the following morning
and enter when the new day candle is already under way.... ?
Since my analizes are made on M+W charts with D entries, when the D candle is closed I put my
orders. I don't wait till morning because the asian sesion is an important one but most of all it is an
important part of M+W candles..as a M or a W chart contains all the sesions for a relative long term(
the asian sesion will have the same direction with the long term trend).
Quote:
I hope to post more charts next week. Once again thanks and please continue.
As long as someone will be interested in !

Good to see you do analysis on stocks too. This is going to be fun. I have been trading a style
very similar to yours. Am gaining aditional insights from this thread, thanks.

I took this trade a few months ago .

After the PB at 3.1015 as sellers confirmation, nothing could have stop the price to reach to
2.3632.The price is the price in every market on world.

Now the price wuold reach again 2.3632 where you will see a small consolidation, beeing only a
preparation for a bigger RET (retracement), nevertheless the trend will remain in sellers hands.

I will be VERY onest with you !

I think that IF I would regret every 200 pips that I didn't catch in a swing move, I should quit trading
or I would trade under a pressure that it could ruin my health.
The psychological part in trading it is a very important part for a trader and knowing to accept and
become confident with what is work for you, it does give you great result at long term, but especially
release you by the pressure that makes fail 95% of the traders.
As I allready said and I will say it every time it needs, I trade ONLY when I understand WPD(what is
price doing), for all the rest of market's situations I choose to stay away of trading and to watch the
price(P). This way of seeing the market it keeps me away of many bad trades, but most of all it is
the best work for my psychological part of my trading.
Sooner I accepted...sooner I reached !

P.S. I thak you for your post and for giving me the opportunity to present this part of trader's
psychology !

AUDJPY is in a clear, nice range market on M chart.

I know that are missing just a few hours to M candle to close, but generally this is what I see about
this pair.
WPD= RM
WPG= the buyers helped by the strong buob( and 2MPB) are pushing the price up to the RM's R
(resistance).
The M levels on chart.
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 So, there was no entry based on the monthly line, because price stayed UNDER the line.
I read another time your post and looking at the chart I realise how important are the O/C of
the candles/swings but most of all why I use it so much !
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 Hi fxgroup and msmarple. Fxgroup, I think with your chart in this post, you really answered my
question. You showed a DAILY S/R line and NOT the M and W level. As I only looked to the M
and W levels before, I missed a good and relatively sure trade. And now with this chart, you are
confirming the importance of the DAILY S/R lines too, as msmarple also says.
So, I want your opinion about what I believe to be true: If we make our entries on the daily
chart, we only look at the PA at the RECENT daily S/R lines (the better if...
I'm sorry if you understood my post in that way, my intention was a different one, I just want
to show the importance of the O/C and not to prove that a D level is more important than
M/W. The M level that is able to stop a M candle is 30 times stronger than the level that stops
a D candle and 4 times stronger that the levels what stops a W candle.
One of the most important element of this methodology is the price's reaction on D at the
higher TF level.
Just read another time my gbpusd and eurjpy exemples and you will see how important are
the levels from higher TF(and much more will come)!
Yes, it is true, at a some point in market, we can see that the price makes big moves based on
a D level and not on M/W, but if we start to regrets all the market situations when the market
doesn't respect my rules, we just give a hand to our confindence distruction and we will riun
our discipline.
We don't want to trade every price's 200-300 pips move or every candle, because this is
overtrading and we dont want to charge ourselves by negativity...we want to learn to be
patience and to wait those market situation when we know exactly WPD+WPG.

P.S. Take a look at my charts and you will understand why the M+W levels are so important for
a D chart ! Please pay atention to the O/C of the swings/ candles and note that all the levels
are identified on M chart(using the SW's O/ C) and then look carefully at how the price reacts
at these levels on W and D charts.
We are not interested to trade every candle ! Look how only 6 M levels could bring our
profitability in the most responsabile and safiest way on a D chart.
I let the chart as clean as possible, but please look how nca+ncb works !
Attached Thumbnails
I don't see how the 1.53401 level on the Monthly lines up with any swings on the monthly . How
 did you draw this level on the monthly ?
thanks in advance fxgroup
Here it is !

P.S. What else do you see at this level ?

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still just can't see any significance to a line drawn at that level , does'nt necessarily have to be a
swing high or low i guess.
Yes, you're right...it doesn't necessarily has to be a swing high or low.
The levels what make swings inside the RMs and not only, generally the levels what reject
buyers and when the buyers close above these levels act as S rejecting selles, become
important levels especially when WPD= RM.
In these situations we say that the P "flips" arround the level "borning"=nca+ncb.

Let's see a chart about it.

Note that the P flips at the level on M chart between 2009 and the first half of 2010,
meanwhile the D chart shows the P after the second half of 2010.
Attached Thumbnails
Using good levels, but most of all a good interpretation of the P, we could have an early advantage in
market.
M-important level
W-RM
D-the buyers pushed the P out of the RM, the sellers try to defend the level, but the buyers with a
PB, give us their confirmation..entry point.
The SL behind the every swing is one of my exits strategies.
Attached Thumbnails
I have attached EURJPY on monthly, weekly and daily - I think it is in an interesting mini-range,
so far holding ABOVE a monthly line, but not really breaking out yet ( tradeable ).

All comments welcome.

You find the reason why the P stalled betwen those levels.
What do you see on W ?

P.S. One question please...how does help you the channel in your trading decision?
I dont want you to think that I have something against it, all I want to do is to give you more logical
reasons/ explanations for every single reason why are you using it...and I will show you some
practical stuffs !

In the area, at which my arrow is pointing, price reached the resistance line of the monthly RM.
So, we switch to the daily. Here price breaks through (on the daily), closes largely above, comes
back to retest the BO line and makes a bullish pinbar (strong buyers). Then price breaks above
the high of this PB (our entry! buyers are in control), but shortly after retraces and comes back
to take us out at the S/L just below the resistance line.
Your PB is a D candle during the W forming. So you've taken a trading decision without waiting to
have the W confirmation.
If you have wait the W close, you have seen the W close as a PB at our level and this would have
been your first information about WPD.
During the next W, the price close bellow the level- the buyers deffend it(PB) and the next day the
sellers are in controll.
Note that the RET al the level is the LH confirmation ...so...beeing in W RM ....it is also the DT's
confirmation.
Note that my PB is ONLY after the W candle closed above the upper limit of the W RM.

This is a great example why it is so important to wait ALWAYS the higher TF's confirmation...and
much safer !

And this method isn't based necessarely on a second retest

No, but when the P is in RM and not in a strong trend, the W close becomes crucial as a confirmation
.
Quote:

P.S. Don't look at the MA's. They are for a scalping method, that I'm testing.
I don't want to look at the MA's, but because of it I can't see the price...and this is not a scalping
method !

P.S. I don't want to seem rude, but all I try is to respect the thread's rules.
Without rules, the traders have no chance in trading world !

The bands are something I just use occasionally to make switching through MANY MANY charts
throughout the day easier on the eye. I have tried Ichimoku clouds, Bollinger bands, Keltner
bands or Raghees Horners 34 ema bands - but they keep distracting me.
So why don't you get ride of it ?
Quote:

. But I never base decisions to trade on that.

So it's useless !

You can much more then a channel or a MA !

Attached Thumbnails
The price turns back in the RM. The buyers are trying to defend the R of the RM, but the sellers gave
us the confirmation on W.
All we have to do is to....wait...wait...wait !
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Hi Milton sorry for delay !

The market could do only 2 things: trend and RM.

In a trend fase, the market is dominated by those who have the market's controll (sellers in bearish
trend and buyers in bullish trend).
When we are trading the trends becomes more easy because the power of buyers/sellers and very
often is obvious and as a consequence the buyers/sellers reaction WITH the main trend is clear and
has no doubt.

But we are trading the RM, we have to affront buyers and sellers at the same time. In a RM the first
price reaction to a S/ R level is only a first reaction at the level and not a confirmation. Since in a RM
we have buyers+sellers, the safiest way to trade is to wait to trade RET ONLY AFTER the trend is
allready start. On our chart this concept is the higher TF confirmation.
On eurgbp case I think the msmarple explanation is the right one.....beeing in a RM, we have to wait
the W confirmation (the W candle to close outside the RM or a W pattern that could give us more
informations-buob,IB that retest the level,etc-). Waiting the W candle to close and seeing that the
sellers put a great pressure un buyers (look at the W's tail-this means to read the price beyond the
candles), we don't trade long since we don't have the W confirmation that the buyers are in RM's
controll.

Look at my charts...we wait first the W confirmation and we trade only after the W is closed on the
next D retracements. I know that remain less, but is much more safer especially when it is against
the main trend.
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I did not see any RET to get in short. Would it have been too agressive to enter at the break of
the candle low?
If you are trading W, as I said...yes and no if you trade D candles .

I trading, the patience and the self-control are crucial requirements, not necessarily to take good
trades, but most of all to stay away (keep out) of bad trades.
We have to accept, to take and to not pretend more than the market give us, otherwise we will start
to lose the self-controll and start to make mistakes. Sometimes the market makes what it has to do
without giving to us any opportunity, sometimes it give us more chances, but the market makes
ALWAYS what it wants, we can not controll it and we have to accept it.

CADJPY weekly has a similar setup to CHFJPY.

The difference is that on chfjpy all TF are in bearish trend, meanwhile on cadjpy the price is
stuck between 2 important levels and M allready put a BUOB CT what close bellow the RM.
Quote:

I guess more waiting here...

That's right my friend !

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This is what I'm looking for ! Simplicity.
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base on this fact and simultaneously of setups occurring ... how did you handle this .... if i have
a trade already opened how to filter the rest of pairs and not to monitor or analysis all 70--50
pair and focus only in pairs with low correlation with my opened position ...
I know that the correlation is used as a powerful by many traders, but perssonaly I learnt to trade
every single cross in base upon the chart/ price tells me.
I don't like the cross with small liquidity, those with long tails, those where the dojis are the
predominant candles, but most of all from a technical point of view, I don't like those market fases
when are involved bouth kind of traders (buyers+ sellers) at the same time (cadjpy)...note: please
not consider the RM.

Do you have favorite pairs for RM / Trending market behaviour, or do you scan through all
available pairs each evening ?
Sorry for delay...family issues took me away of the screen...but it worth it !
I'm trying to pick only those pairs where the patterns are very clear with no doubts for what
the buyers/ sellers are doing. At the moment when I understand WPD+WPG, I put the S/ R
levels and I wait the price to get there reading WPD at the S/ R levels.
Quote:

What is your perspective on EURAUD ? We had a breakout of an extreme low and many seem to
jump on the train....lol.
This is what I see on EURAUD:
M- after a strong down trend, the P is consolidating with big sellers pressure for 1.30
W-the sellers closed partial position close to RM S and started to consolidate
All we have to do is to wait the P to reach the M S and at that level to wait the M/ W
confirmation in order to see if the sellers can push the P bellow the M S or the buyers can keep
the P back to RM.
We have to wait for confirmation, trying to get in market at this right moment, becomes very
risky.
Attached Thumbnails
Let's see how we read a chart
USDJPY:

M-after the RM with 80.269 S the P reached at the hystorical low that acted as S, where the buyers
defendel the level with an IPB.
W-RM between the 78.45 and 75.68 with a strong BUOB that didn't close above the RM
D-after a long time of market'sindecision and a great battle between buyers and sellers, a BOJ
intervention makes a W buob, but the P remains within the RM (in the market's indecision and SL
hunting zone).
The zone between 78.45 and 75.68 is a zone where we had great battles between buyers and
sellers, many SL hunting, many indecisions and nervous price's attitudes (bullish candles followed by
bearish candles with high volatility and vice-versa, but most af all the doji are the dominant
candles).
Beeing in a zone with all above characteristics , associated with historycal lows, with M candle as
indecision, with such suddenless high volatility and BOJ intervention , we understand that a safety
way to trade is above the 78.45 (but the problem that we have the strong M 80.26 level what is let
us little space to move for MM) and bellow the 75.68.
As a consequences of all this the safetiest way to trade is to wait to see buyers confirmation above
the 80.26 and even better because of the main trend, to see sellers confirmation at 75.68.
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In a down trend with an important M RM,the price showed us strong sellers with W PB.
On D chart is just simple as that .
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Hi
sorry for answers delay, but as I said family issues kept me away of the screen....and it worth
it....last sunday, my wife born our second child..so....!

The levels are one of the most important elements in trading, but are not everything. Understanding
what the buyers and sellers are doing at our levels, becomes fundamentally.
The old levels that are dating by years are important and becomes very important levels when the
recent levels are missing.
Obvious we have to pay more attention to those level that were important in price's evolution.
Let's see some charts with the same levels: CADJPY and how to understand what the buyers/ sellers
are doing.
Attached Thumbnails