Low Fertility Rate in Japan

Japanese fertility started to fall below replacement level from middle of
1970s and in 1990s reached one the lowest fertility levels in the world. What
are consequences of decline in fertility rate? It will lead to age imbalance in
population. People who were born when fertility was higher will make greater
proportion of population. Ageing and changes in the structure of population
are direct effects of low fertility rate. In Japan by year 2010 there was highest
proportion of elder persons in population, about 31%. This number is
expected to increase to 36% in 2025, and 43% by year 2050 (UN,
Department of Economic and Social affairs) Low fertility rate will eventually
lead to population decline. The problem is that large number of elderly
people will make a burden for young people both in terms of economic
support and in terms of care. It also makes difficult for government to finance
pensions and healthcare systems. Problem of low fertility is well recognized
and is very important among developed countries. Purpose of this paper is
to critically evaluate the social policies enacted by Japanese government,
identify strengths and weaknesses. In the end we draw conclusion on how
Japanese government could improve their family policy.
Japan's fertility transition from high fertility state to low fertility state finished
in the 1950s, much faster than in other European states. Fertility rate was
near replacement level until 1970s, but then after dropped below.
Government had no particular interest in raising total fertility rate until
1980s, partially because fertility rate was one of the highest among
European countries. Parental leave was accepted in 1992. At first it let full
time employees to take one year leave for raising infant without any
compensation. In 1994 "Angel Plan" was created and childcare services were
developed and expanded . This program included expansion of services of
nursery schools like newborn care, introduction of family support centers

and others. From 1995, parental leave guaranteed 25% of wage and
exemption from paying certain types of taxes. In 1999 parental leave
compensation was increased to 40% of wage and duration of leave was
stretched to 3 years. Despite the struggling of Japanese government to
increase fertility, fertility rate is still falling down becoming one of the lowest
in the world. Why government's policy was ineffective ?
As we can see Japan's policy aimed at changing two important aspects :
compatibility of work and child caring and financial support from
government. Then we could compare Japan's social policy to one of
European's countries who succeeded in increasing their fertility rate. France
has highest TFR (total fertility rate) in Europe, equal to 1.98, Japan at the
same time has TFR equal to 1.3. Let's consider how social spending and
spending on family as percent of GDP differs in these two countries. Social
includes public spending on old age, active labor market programs, family
policies, health unemployment, housing. Spending on family is part of "social
spending" that go to family policies. In 1990 Japan spent 11,3% on social
needs and 0.4% on family, in 1995 Japan spent 13.9% on social needs and
0.4% on family, in 2000 16.1% on social, 0.6% on family, in 2003 17,7% on
social and 0.7% on family. In France these numbers are significantly higher.
For example in 1990 they spent 25.3% on social and 2.5% on family, in 1995
28.4 on social and 2.7% on family, in 2000 27.6% social and 3% family, in
2003 28.7% social and 3% family. Approaches of these two countries to
financial support of families is also very different. Even though family
allowance in France is paid only after birth of second child, these benefits are
greater and of longer duration than in Japan. But still, even though Japan's
expenditures on family policies are not so large as in France, It is near

middle compared to other OECD countries. Research conducted by Atoh
(2005) on comparison of Japan's social policy through international
perspective claims that "it is not clear if policies supporting childcare
economically have significant influence on fertility".
Japan is long hours working nation where competition in the job market is
very intense. On one of ISPP surveys Japanese women were asked "How
many hours does your man work?" French women responded 39 hours when
at the same time Japanese women response was 56 hours. Images of ideal
workers are very different in two countries. In Japan, workers strongly tie
themselves with company and companies in turn expect workers to fully
devote themselves to the job. Consequently almost all housework in
Japanese families are done by women. According to Patricia Boling Japanese
women do three times more housework than men. However, to be successful
in career both men and women need to work 10-13 hours a day and are
penalized if they spend their working time on household routine. When
working hours are that long, most of the kindergartens or child care centers
will not operate. Japanese women find government attempts insufficient to
make childrearing and work compatible (Retherford et al. 2006). It is almost
impossible to be full-time worker and be mother at the same time. When
choosing between family and career, more women choose career. The
opportunity cost of childrearing is strongly connected to increasing women's
participation in the labor force. Between 1950s and 1990s enrollment rates
to university increased from 10% to 40%. Between 1980s and 2000s there is
a dramatic increase in women's labor participation. Basic theory of labor
economics says that higher education level leads to overall increase in
expected wage and employment opportunities. Thus, increase in women's

education level and employment should have raised women's time cost and
opportunity cost of childrearing. (Atoh, 2005)
Low fertility is not only women's problem. Usually when talking about low
birthrates, politicians blame women for their selfishness, however we also
should think how men contribute to low fertility. One of the factors of Japan's
low fertility is late marriages. In 1985 about 10% of women aged 30-35 were
not married, but in 2005 32% of the same age category were unmarried. For
35-39 age group 19% of women were unmarried. There is a declining
enthusiasm among women for marriage during last two decades, but men
show even less willingness to marry(Leblanc, 2008). In 2005 30% percent of
men of age 35-40 did not marry, a 4.2% increase from 2000 year statistics.
More and more men going into middle age are unmarried. Even though men
are not so constrained in age to father children, it is evident that men show
less interest at creating families.
Japanese men marry late because breadwinner expectations imposed on
men make it crucial for them to establish themselves financially in life.
Research conducted by Japan's Ministry of Labor and Health observed
childbirths and marriages of 17000 men and women aged 20-34. Research
showed that only 45% of women continued in the job they had before
marriage. 29% stopped working after marriage. 72% of men stayed in their
job and only 1,5% quit working after marriage. This means that men's salary
should be expected to cover the needs of whole family. Not surprisingly, in
the study of 17000 people, it was found that higher income has strong
positive correlation with probability to marry. This correlation was especially
strong among men. For example, men who earned salary higher than
40000$ annually had four times higher probability to marry than men who
earned less (Leblanc 2008).
Inability of both parents to work at the same time makes men to delay
marriages and some to remain single. Income of one parent is often not
enough to cover all needs of family. When one leaves the job, parental leave
benefits can't cover all expenses what causes financial difficulties Costs
involved with childrearing are especially high. Parents have to pay large
amounts of money for their children's education. According to different
researches, education expenses are the most important reason for Japanese
families to reduce their family size. Total cost of education of one child is
said to be about 9 million yen in 2000s, 2 times the average annual income
(Boling, 2006). In France, where total fertility rate is much higher than in
Japan, higher proportion of women work in their childbearing years (2545years). According to data from OECD 72% of women work in France
against 64% in Japan. Among those female workers in Japan, 42% are
working part time, while in France this number is significantly less. Only 23%
of women work part time. Contribution of women to family budget is
different in these two countries.
Policy recommendations : Due to the social pressures in the past, men were
sole breadwinners earning 100% of family income. According to Traditional
gender roles men's involvement in housework and care for children is very
low. Policies should encourage men to participate more in childrearing and
take on themselves some burden of childcare. The image of male worker who
has devoted his life to one company spread in 1960s, made men to focus
entirely on their work. Under such circumstances women have to do all

housework and care. Thus there is tradeoff for Japanese women between
having a job or having children, while in France women have better
conditions for raising children and working full time. Undoubtedly, France's
more friendly policy towards families also makes it easier for women to raise
children. Japanese government thus needs to improve the environment for
childcare by creating childcare centers that would ease the compatibility of
work and childcare. The relaxation of male breadwinner model to dual
income couples would make it easier for men to take care of family. When
family budget is entirely dependent on husband's income men delay
marriages until they are financially established. Contribution of women to
family budget would make it easier for young couples to establish a family.
Reference List
Abbasi Shavazi, M., Gubhaju, B. (2014) - Different Pathways to Low Fertility
in Asia: Consequences and Policy Implications ( UN expert paper No 2014/1)
Atoh M., Akachi, M., (2005) - Low Fertility and Family Policy in Japan in an
International Comparative Perspective
Boling P., (2006) - Family Policy in Japan
Leblanc R., (2008) - Japans low fertility: what have men got to do with it?
Retherford, R. D., Ogawa. N., (2006) - Japans baby bust,
Retherford R.D, Sidney, B. (2010) Very low fertility in Asia, Is there a
problem?

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Japanese fertility started to fall below replacement level from middle of

nursery schools like newborn care, introduction of family support centers

expenditures on family policies are not so large as in France, It is near

expected wage and employment opportunities. Thus, increase in women's

entirely on their work. Under such circumstances women have to do all

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