Chapter 8

THERMOECONOMICS
A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics
John Bryant
Third Edition
Electronic Version Chapter 8
VOCAT International Ltd
2012
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Third Edition
ISBN 978-0-9562975-3-2
The electronic versions of the book chapters are made available free on the
website www.vocat.co.uk for personal and educational use only by
interested readers. While the author has made every effort to be diligent and
accurate in his researches, he cannot be held responsible for the use that
readers may make of his work, and they should satisfy themselves as to
logic and veracity of the conclusions drawn.
Citation for the book:
John Bryant. Thermoeconomics A thermodynamic approach to economics,
VOCAT International Ltd, 2011. ISBN 978-0-9562975-3-2
Contents
Preface
1
Introduction
1.1 Historical Research
1.2 Economics and the Ideal Gas
1
2
6
Stock and Flow Processes

2.1 General Stock Model
2.2 Monetary Stock Model
2.3 Labour Sector
2.4 Stocks of Economic Output
2.5 Resource Stocks
2.6 Environment Waste Stocks
17
19
31
34
40
46
48
Thermodynamic Principles
3.1 First Law of Thermodynamics
3.2 Second Law of Thermodynamics
3.3 Constant Volume Process
3.4 Constant Price Process
3.5 Iso-trading Process
3.6 Polytropic Process
3.7 Isentropic Process
3.8 Process Entropy
3.9 Thermodynamics & Utility
50
50
59
63
67
69
71
74
76
81
Production and Entropy Processes

4.1 A Simple Production System
4.2 Reaction Kinetics
4.3 Entropy and Maximisation
4.4 The Cycle
88
89
104
108
113
Money
5.1 Development & Elasticity
5.2 Money Entropy
5.3 Money Entropy & Interest Rates
118
121
133
140
Labour and Unemployment
151
Investment and Economic Entropy

7.1 Project investment and discounted Cash Flow
7.2 Annuities
7.3 Bonds and Gilt-Edged Securities
160
161
164
165
Energy, Resources and the Economy

8.1 Energy and the Economy
8.2 Energy Capital stock
8.3 Economic Output
8.4 Non-Renewable Energy
8.5 Energy Resource Substitution
8.6 Thermo-Economic Considerations
8.7 Population
8.8 Climate Change
178
178
180
182
183
191
193
198
200
Thermoeconomics and Sustainability
210
References
215
Data Sources
221
List of Symbols
222
Index
223
Preface
This book, first published in 2009, stems from research that I began more
than three decades ago when I was then working as group economist for the
Babcock International Group. Prior to that, my formal university education
had included degrees in engineering and management science the latter in
particular covering economics and operations research. What started out as
a train of curiosity into parallels between the disciplines of economics and
thermodynamics soon developed into something deeper.
Following publication of two peer-reviewed papers of mine on the subject
in the journal Energy Economics, I was greatly encouraged in my research
by other trans-disciplinary researchers with a similar interest, in particular,
Dr Lszl Kapolyi, who was then Minister for Industry of the Hungarian
government, a member of the Hungarian Academy of Science and a
member of the Club of Rome.
Not being based at a university and with no research grant at my disposal,
my main thrust at that time had been to make a career as director of a
consultancy and expert witness business and therefore, until more recently,
opportunities to spend time on research had been few. Nevertheless, by the
turn of the millennium I was able to find time alongside my consultancy to
return to some research, and in 2007 published another peer-reviewed paper
in the International Journal of Exergy entitled A Thermodynamic Theory
of Economics, which was followed up with several working papers on
monetary aspects and energy models. Interest in this work has been high,
spurred on no doubt by general worldwide interest in energy and climate
change.
This book and third edition is an attempt to bring together all the facets of
the research into a coherent whole. Topics covered include the gas laws, the
distribution of income, the 1st and 2nd Laws of Thermodynamics applied to
economics, economic processes and elasticity, entropy and utility,
production and consumption processes, reaction kinetics, empirical
monetary analysis of the UK and USA economies, interest rates, discounted
cash flow, bond yield and spread, unemployment, principles of entropy
maximization and economic development, the cycle, empirical analysis of
the relationship between world energy resources, climate change and
economic output, and last aspects of sustainability.
Further developments have been added since the first and second editions,
in particular, thoughts on production and entropy maximisation, order and
disorder and relationships to the living world, which has necessitated reorganisation of some of the chapters. The chapter on money has been
updated to incorporate empirical analyses of the recent upheavals in world
economic activity from 2008 to 2011, though the conclusions reached have
not changed, indeed, they have been reinforced.
The findings, interpretations and conclusions of this book are entirely those
of my own, based on the research that I have conducted. While I have made
every effort to be diligent and accurate, readers should satisfy themselves as
to logic and veracity of the conclusions drawn. I hope that this third edition
represents an improvement and advancement on earlier editions, but would
welcome nevertheless any feedback, discussions and corrections on points
that readers may have.
I am indebted to my wife Alison for all her support and for providing an
atmosphere conducive to my research.
John Bryant
Copyright: John Bryant, VOCAT International Ltd 2012, for personal use only.
CHAPTER 8
8.1
ENERGY, RESOURCES AND THE ECONOMY
Energy and the Economy
Economic systems of developed and developing countries have become

progressively embedded in an energy base, to provide a source of
productive power and human wealth and well-being. Energy consumption
(technically exergy consumption) provides electricity, powers machines in
industry and computers, provides heat for industry and homes, and powers
road, rail and sea transport. Fishing and agriculture (including the
manufacture of fertilisers) in developed economies are now significantly
dependent on energy, rather than human or animal power. Ayres and Warr
(2004) have shown through the use of a LINEX function that exergy
consumption can explain most of economic growth in the USA since 1900,
with the marginal productivities (elasticity) of capital stock and labour
(especially the latter), being well below that of the work output of exergy
consumption.
Energy is now an international commodity, and few countries with a
significant manufacturing and commercial base can now be described as
closed with respect to energy. USA oil production peaked in about 1970
and the USA now imports 2/3rd of its oil requirements. Of the major
economies, only Mexico, Canada and Norway can claim to be net exporters
of oil. In the natural gas market, the USA and Europe are now net importers
of gas via pipelines respectively from Canada and Russia. Only in the coal
industry is consumption met mostly by local production, with China and
USA accounting for 60% of world production and consumption. In 2006,
ten developed countries with just 13% of world population (USA, Japan,
Germany, Canada, UK, South Korea, Italy, France, Australia and Spain)
accounted for 45% of world GDP, and 40% of primary energy
consumption; with China, Russia and India bringing the latter total up to
66%.
By common practice, the units used to measure energy production and
consumption are those of weight (tonnes of oil), volume (cubic metres of
gas) or the heat value of sources of energy (Joules, BTUs). These can be
equated to productive content or exergy if account is taken of the net
energy delivered to the environmental average.
Figures 8.1 and 8.2 summarise the development and relationship of primary
energy consumption and electricity generation to GDP and population over
several decades for some key countries.
Figure 8.1 Primary Energy Consumption per Capita versus GDP per Capita 1980 2009
(PPP 2000 levels) Russia 1992 onwards
Source: OECD, Penn World, BP
Figure 8.2 Electricity Generation per Capita versus GDP per Capita 1980 2009
(PPP 2000 levels) Russia 1992 onwards
Source: OECD, Penn World, EIA
In some developed economies, energy consumption per capita has begun to

level off; indeed in the 2008 recession it declined significantly. But in the
developing world, illustrated by China, energy consumption per capita
continues to grow. Energy intensity (energy/GDP) has fallen significantly
for all countries, and continues to do so, but has funnelled down to a
narrower range than three decades previously. However, bearing in mind
that electricity production accounts for some 40% of primary energy
consumption, it should be noted that per capita electricity consumption is
still rising, associated with only a small decline in electricity intensity (ratio
electricity generation/GDP). Thus a significant part of the reduction in
energy intensity has been owing to improved efficiency in conversion of
energy into electricity, though it should be cautioned that ultimately the
laws of thermodynamics place limits on the level of efficiency that can be
obtained. The International Energy Agency indicates [IEA Worldwide
Trends in Energy Use & Efficiency (2008[1])] that potential for further
savings in primary energy consumption could be between 18%-26% in
industry, and 23%-32% in electricity generation.
8.2
Energy and Capital Stock
The use of energy in an economy is predominantly through the powering

and installation of associated capital stock, such as transport, machinery and
computers, and the provision of heat, though some oil finds its way into
products such as chemicals and fertilisers. Table 8.1 for example sets out an
analysis of US capital stock and consumer durables.
A significant proportion of assets is directly associated with energy
consumption, such as equipment & software and structures in power,
communications, steel, petroleum, mining, railways, road vehicles and
consumer durables; approaching a quarter of all fixed assets. Without an
energy supply these would cease to have a function. Even farming is now
energy intensive in the Western world. A further point to note is that
humankind now consumes energy in order to make most fixed assets.
Modern buildings factories and roads are made by using construction
equipment and cranes, and machinery and vehicles are made by consuming
energy through manufacturing plant & machinery. A return to human and
animal power, predominant before the 20th century, might be viewed by
Developed Economic Man as being unimaginable and a retrograde step.
Such a step would certainly be dramatic.
Table 8.1 US Current-cost Net Stock Fixed Assets & Consumer Durables
(www.bea.gov Fixed asset tables 3 and 11b)
$bn 2007
Equipment & Software
Computers/Software
Communications
Medical Equipment
Office Equipment
Engines Turbines
Electrical transmission
Industrial M/c
Trucks/buses
Autos
Aircraft, airborne equipment
Ships, boats
Railroad equipment
Agricultural M/c
Construction M/c
Mining/Oilfield Equipt
Other
Sub-total
Structures
Residential
Offices
Commercial
Hospitals
Manufacturing
Power
Communication
Petroleum/Nat Gas
Mining
Railroads
Farms
Highways/Streets
Military
Transportation
Educational
Sewers & Water
Other
Sub-total
Consumer Durables
Autos
Trucks
Videos/Computers TV
Appliances
Other
Sub-total
Total Assets
Private
Government
Total
$623.5
$555.4
$269.2
$188.3
$83.5
$358.4
$1,041.0
$794.8
$141.4
$296.5
$65.4
$101.5
$147.0
$149.8
$49.5
$470.8
$5,336.0
$46.4
$669.9
$555.4
$269.2
$188.3
$83.5
$358.4
$1,041.0
$818.9
$141.4
$456.5
$207.7
$101.5
$147.0
$149.8
$49.5
$995.0
$6,233.0
1.4
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.8
2.2
1.8
0.3
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
2.1
13.4
$2,634.1
$391.4
$532.4
$1,608.6
$912.0
$716.4
$8,313.9
$18,142.8
$2,247.9
$1,868.1
$931.9
$1,242.8
$1,472.0
$485.8
$832.6
$57.2
$298.7
$307.8
$2,634.1
$391.4
$532.4
$1,971.2
$912.0
$2,030.3
$36,359.0
38.9
4.8
4.0
2.0
2.7
3.2
1.0
1.8
0.1
0.6
0.7
5.7
0.8
1.1
4.2
2.0
4.4
78.0
$9,210.9
$573.1
$759.0
$793.5
$204.2
$1,695.7
$4,025.5
$46,617.5
1.2
1.6
1.7
0.4
3.6
8.6
100.0
$17,819.1
$1,620.8
$1,834.1
$706.0
$1,175.9
$1,230.6
$485.8
$832.6
$57.2
$298.7
$307.8
$362.6
$1,313.9
$28,045.1
$573.1
$759.0
$793.5
$204.2
$1,695.7
$4,025.5
$37,406.6
$24.1
$160.0
$142.3
$524.2
$897.0
$323.7
$627.1
$34.0
$225.9
$66.9
$241.4
8.3
Economic Output
To assess the impact of changes in energy availability on economic output,

we return first to equations (2.4) and (2.9) at chapter 2 where, at a specific
moment in time, output value GM in current money terms (the GDP) was
deemed to be equivalent, but not equal, to output value GO in terms of
productive content (the real value inside output) net of efficiency losses.
To compare output over time with volumetric aspects of product inputs and
outputs, economists calculate a price index in terms of a weighted average
of prices of relevant goods, albeit that variations in exchange rates can
further complicate the issue. The output volume obtained from using a
price index therefore hopefully nets out changes in value imparted to it by
economic pricing. Where possible of course, economics makes use of real
volume, weight and energy value measures of commodities, energy and
foodstuffs to add substance to the calculation. Such calculations become
less easy to measure and more divorced from a base, however, the further
up the economic chain one moves towards output values attributed to
humans that provide a service on the back of output, effectively overheads.
Given that output value in terms of productive content is made up of the
true contributions of each of capital stock, labour and inputted resources,
and not their money equivalent, as per figure 2.5, chapter 2, then variations
in output value in terms of real productive content might be more affected
by changes in non-human factors, than might otherwise be assumed.
Further, as already shown in this chapter, since energy resource availability
currently constitutes perhaps the major input to economic output, then the
workings of the international energy market will have an important bearing
on economic output. At a local level, one has only to think of a strike by oil
delivery truck drivers to witness the panicking effect on consumers
looking for assurance for the immediate future. At an international level of
course the effect is far more marked; for example, the large rises in oil
prices in 1974, 1979, 2005-2008 and 2010-2011, as shown at figure 8.3,
where each rise was subsequently followed by a world recessionary/
deflationary process, reducing demand.
The thermodynamic explanation for this effect is that active output volume
change dV/V came up against a greater resource constraint change dVc/Vc,
which enacted a significant negative economic entropy change ds (a disutility and exit of entropic value dQ).
Figure 8.3 Crude Oil prices Source BP Statistical Review 2010, IndexMundi, Bloomberg,
OECD.
The impact of this is to occasion first a rise in oil prices, as in figure 8.3,
and then a drop, as demand turns down to meet the available output. It
cannot be imagined that the wage earners of exporting entities engaged in
the production of oil had suddenly acquired a much larger real impact via
their input of productive content; more likely that productive capacity at
that time was constrained, compared to demand, creating an economic
entropy loss and a shortage of energy product to the international market.
The net effect of a change to output value of a factor such as energy is
reflected in its interaction with all the other factors that make up GDP. We
are not saying that output values of non-human energy factors alone
determine economic activity; clearly human and other factors matter too,
but we are saying that energy consumption now constitutes a significant
input to the economic process as it is currently constructed.
8.4
Non-Renewable Energy
According to the US Energy Information Administration, oil, natural gas

and coal accounted for 37%, 23% and 27% respectively of total world
primary energy consumption in 2005, with the remaining 13% coming from
nuclear, hydro, wind and other sources. Given the long timescales
associated with nuclear technology, it is likely that consumption of oil,
natural gas and coal will remain important factors in determining levels of
GDP in the short to medium term horizon, though with some decline in
energy intensity.
Figure 8.4 is a diagrammatic representation of a non-renewable resource,
such as oil, gas and coal, similar in construction to the Logistic curves set
out at figure 4.7 in chapter 4, and described by equations (4.30) and (4.31).
Reserve Curve
Ultimate Gross
Discoverable
Reserves
Cumulative
Proven
Discoveries
Initial Proven
Discoveries
Net
reserves
Cumulative
Production
Time
Production Curve
Extension of
Reserves
Figure 8.4 A Non-renewable Energy Resource Reserve
At a current point in time, information is known of production (depletion)

rates and cumulative production to date. Knowledge of remaining net
proven reserves that are being tapped will also be known from geological
data. What is not known for certain is what other reserves may be
discovered or become recoverable in the future. Oil and gas professionals
have techniques at their disposal to estimate future discoveries. One such
technique is creaming, which is based on the knowledge that the easiest
energy fields are those that are discovered first and the more difficult ones
later [International Energy Agency (2004)]. Other experts extrapolate from
current production using the Hubbert equation [M King Hubbert (1956)],
which is based on the Logistic/Verhulst equation set out in chapter 4.
In respect of oil, there is a significant element of political positioning
surrounding some countries estimates of what are declared as proven
reserves, in particular those of some members of OPEC, such as to place
some doubt as to the reliability of such reserve estimates. Laherrere (2005,
2006) suggests backdated mean technical reserves as a measure
independent of oil companies and national agencies official figures. He
concludes that since 1980 oil discoveries have been less than production
growth. Groups such as the Energy Watch Group and the Association for
the Study of Peak Oil & Gas also have doubts about the official position.
Figure 8.5 summarises oil and gas discovery and production levels per
annum as a per cent of net reserves. Calculations of the per annum rates of
discovery are based on the annual changes in the official figures for net
proven reserves [taken from the BP Statistical Review], and then adjusted
by annual production levels. Should reserves subsequently be reassessed
either upwards or downwards, in particular those for oil, then the figures for
discoveries would incorporate an appropriate adjustment upwards or
downwards, causing the curves at figure 8.5 either to draw apart or to cross.
If cumulative production proceeds against a finite reserve, there comes a
turning point when production peaks. This is at about the middle of the
graph at figure 8.4 - the so-called peak oil phenomenon. Thereafter
production begins to wind down as the remaining reserves reduce. Such a
peak was reached in the USA oil industry in about 1970. The only way in
which production can increase in perpetuity is by the discovery of new
energy resource fields - of ever increasing size and numbers.
However, knowledge of the ultimate level that proven reserves may reach is
not known for certainty, and therefore estimating the peak production level
and when it may occur is an exercise in trend analysis, sensitive to

determining the turning point.
Figure 8.5 World Oil and Natural Gas Discoveries & Production % p.a. / Net Reserves
Data source: BP Statistical Review 2000 2011
There is much debate about when world peak oil, peak gas and peak
coal may occur, depending upon views held on the ultimate level of proven
usable reserves, where the level of exergy to be abstracted is greater than
that put in to develop such reserves.
Figures 8.6 and 8.7 set out charts of world cumulative production and
official net proven reserves for both oil and natural gas. Cumulative world
oil production as a proportion of official net proven reserves remaining (not
including tar sands) continues to rise, and is approaching a 1:1 ratio,
indicating perhaps that production is nearing the peak illustrated at figure
8.4.
10
Figure 8.6 World Oil Reserves and Cumulative Production
Sources: BP, EIA.
On present trends, based on oil companies and national agencies estimates

of net reserves, peak oil may occur in about a decade. On more pessimistic
estimates of the level of net reserves, the peak may already have arrived,
with production continuing flat for a while before reducing. Estimates of
ultimate recoverable reserves range from 3.5 trillion barrels of oil [IEA
WEO (2008)], down to 3 trillion [Laherrere (2006)], 2 trillion excluding
extra-heavy oil. The position with natural gas appears to be further behind
oil, though it is a matter of evidence as to whether gas reserves yet to be
discovered will occur.
11
Figure 8.7 World Natural Gas Reserves and Cumulative Production

Sources: BP, Laherrere ASPO
A more recent possible entre to the gas market is the technology of

hydraulic fracturing or fracking; injecting a fluid made up of water, sand
and various chemicals (some toxic) deep into the ground, causing nearby
shale rock to crack, creating fissures for natural gas to collect. Such a
technology could undoubtedly unlock substantial additional gas reserves,
though opponents to the technology cite significant environmental, safety
and health hazards, such as water and air contamination, and potential
earthquakes.
Figure 8.8 summarises world oil and natural gas production and
consumption. The shape of the production charts corresponds to a part of
the left-hand side of the production curve at figure 8.4. It is a matter of
12
debate as to when production, and thereby consumption of oil and gas, may
peak and begin to decline.
World Oil Production & Consum ption
000 barrels per day .
100000
75000
50000
Production
25000
Consumption
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Figure 8.8 World Oil and Natural Gas Production and Consumption Source: BP
Of course, if new proven reserves of oil and/or natural gas are found, of
sufficient economically extractable volume to increase significantly the
ratio of net reserves to cumulative production (depletion), or real
improvements are obtained for recovery factors applied to oil in place, or
a severe recession occurs to reduce demand for energy, then peak
production may be put off further, or production may flatten off at a higher
level for a period. On the other hand, if some reserve estimates are
subsequently brought down, in particular those of OPEC referred to earlier,
then the depletion curve would be brought forward. On the assumption,
however, that a peak will eventually be reached, it might be expected that
13
production might then gradually decline in level over many years,

corresponding approximately to the right-hand side of the production chart
at figure 8.5.
Besides oil, and natural gas reserves, there is also some debate as to the
extent of world coal reserves. According to the BP Statistical Review 2011,
total world proven coal reserves stood at 860 billion tonnes of coal; split
about half bituminous/anthracite and half lignite/sub-bituminous - the latter
being of inferior quality to the former. This appears to represent a reservesto-production (R/P) ratio of 118 years, based on 2010 production levels.
Approximately 4/5th of these reserves are held by six countries: USA,
Russia, China, Australia, India and South Africa. Coal is not widelytransported worldwide, being predominantly consumed in the country
where it is produced. China and USA account for 60% of production and
consumption. A report of the Energy Watch Group [EWG-Series No1/2007]
concludes, however, that data on coal reserves is poor, the data for China
for example being last estimated in 1992, even though 20% of reserves in
that year have since been consumed. The report points out that worldwide
coal reserves have been downgraded significantly, and estimates that global
production may continue to increase over the next 10-15 years, reach a
plateau, and then gradually decline. Such a picture is not dissimilar to the
curves for oil and gas, though perhaps set later.
Figure 8.9 illustrates the reserves to production ratio since 2000. It has
dropped by 45% in only a 10year period, and looks set to fall further, if
reserves continue to fall and production to rise. By comparison, the current
reserves/production ratios for world oil and world natural gas stand at 46
years and 59 years respectively.
Figure 8.9 World Coal Reserves/Production Ratio Years

Data source: BP Statistical Review 2000 2011
14
It is unlikely that a reduction in current energy resource production will

wholly feed through into a reduction in GDP. There are other effects to
consider, such as substitution of other energy sources, new reserves and
further improvements in efficiency of use affecting energy intensity. But it
is the case that relative energy dependency and the path of primary energy
input are likely to play key roles to any future position concerning economic
development.
8.5
Energy Resource Substitution
Climate change apart, making the assumption that in due course some nonrenewable resources are eventually rendered inert through irrevocable
consumption, the principle of maximisation of entropy gain, set out in
chapter 4, is then invoked. Humankind, having gone along one branch of
the stream to discover a potential dead-end, will gradually seek other
avenues to advance its cause, by turning to alternative sources of energy.
Nevertheless, there may still be some gains to be made from improving
efficiency, thereby increasing the net exergy of conventional non-renewable
energy sources delivered to economic output (subject to limits set by the
Laws of Thermodynamics), and compared to the reductions in energy
intensity achieved over the last 40 years (see figure 8.1); for example, by
ground transport increasingly switching to electric energy, entailing changes
to the capital stock.
Further large improvements and maintenance of positive economic entropy
gain will likely only be achieved by finding substitutes for conventional
energy resources, such as nuclear power, and renewable sources such as
solar, wind and hydro generated electricity. Potentially, however, these
may involve higher economic costs, and therefore lower potential net
volume benefit to economic output. Wind power will also require stand-by
power plant when wind force is low.
Nuclear power, although having low operating costs, entails high capital
costs, and high waste and decommissioning costs, with waste potentially
accumulating much beyond many generations of humankind. Nuclear
capacity carries with it also some risks of safety, though these can be
controlled. Figure 8.10 summarises world electricity consumption from
nuclear power up to 2010. After the rise of the 70s and 80s, output growth
began to slow down and has been largely flat since about 2004.
Figure 8.10 World Nuclear Electricity Consumption TWh
15
Source: BP
Major countries that now have a high percentage of installed nuclear power
capacity include France (78%), Belgium (55%), Sweden (52%) and Ukraine
(51%) with a number of other European countries above 30%. The top five
capacities in 2001 were USA (102,000 MWe), France (62,000 MWe), Japan
(46,000 MWe), Russia (22,000 MWe) and Germany (22,000 MWe)
[Source: EIA/IAEA].
Figure 8.11 confirms that the nuclear industry has lost share to other forms
of electricity generation since the early 1990s.
15
Nuclear % Share of World Electricity Installed Capacity
10
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Figure 8.11 World Nuclear Power Installed Capacity
2000
2005
Source: EIA
2010
16
Growth of hydroelectric power (a renewable resource) is limited by

geological/landscape considerations, and its share of electrical output has
marginally fallen to about 16% [source: BP]. By contrast, figure 8.12
indicates that the share of electrical generation capacity taken by other
renewable energy sources, such as geothermal, solar and wind power, is
growing, though it still commands only a small share.
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Figure 8.12 % Share of World Electricity Installed Capacity taken by

Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood and Waste,
Source: EIA
Accepting that an ultimate limit on fossil resources may exist, then the
alternatives to energy substitution are either a quantum shift in consumers
attitudes towards energy use, removing a part from GDP and permanently
altering the mix of output, or a long-term levelling or decline in GDP,
which may lead to a reduction in GDP per capita, unless population also
declined in proportion.
8.6
Thermo-economic Considerations
Although new reserve discoveries for a resource make no difference to the

eco-system as, by definition, they were there in the first place, they do make
a difference to an economic system by virtue of the potential economic gain
to be maximised. Potential economic entropy gain occurs as more and more
resource is discovered (that is a utility value is created). Once discovered
and developed, such potential gain is then gradually reduced as the reserve
is depleted through production. During production and subsequent
consumption, real thermodynamic exergy is consumed and thermodynamic
entropy increases arise.
17
Dealing with the path of economic entropy potential to develop and deplete
a limited reserve, from equations (4.30) and (4.31) at chapter 4, the standard
model for a non-renewable resource is that of the Verhulst equation, and
output volume V from a reserve could be stated as being equal to a function
of the change in accumulated production N per unit of time:
dN
V = f = Rb(1 b )
dt
(8.1)
With the solution at any time t of:
N (t ) =
N0
N 0
t
t
R 1 e + e
(8.2)
Where is the production/net reserves rate per annum, R is gross proven

reserves, b = N/R is the ratio of cumulative production N to proven reserves
R, and N0 is a starting position. By differentiation it can be proved that
maximum output value occurs at the point b = N/R = ; that is at the midpoint of the production and reserve curves at figure 8.5.
As with the chapters on money and the labour market, we imagine a
constraint to output, which is a function of the total resource depletion N
that has been used up. The higher this is the less incentive there will be to
exploit a resource reserve. We could express the potential output volume
flow no longer available as:
B = Rb
(8.3)
By comparing equations (8.1) and (8.3) it can be seen that:
V = (1 b )B
or
V
= (1 b )
B
(8.4)
By taking logs and differentiating equation (8.4) we have:
dV dB
db
=
V
B (1 b)
(8.5)
18
From our volume economic entropy equation (4.23) at chapter 4 we could

write:
dV dB kdb
=
dsdepletion = k
B (1 b )
V
(8.6)
where dsdepletion is the potential economic entropy change accompanying the

volume depletion of units reserve, and k is the productive content of each
unit (replacing money in this equation).
Figure 8.13 illustrates the loci of all the resource depletion factors,
assuming k=1.
Figure 8.13 Loci of cumulative resource depletion: Resource constraint B, output volume flow
V, rate of growth of output value flow V/V, rate of growth of resource constraint B/B and
unit economic depletion entropy change s.
Resource constraint B follows cumulative resource depletion N (where N =

bR), being an S-shaped curve, as per equation (4.31) for the Verhulst
equation, and as illustrated at figure 8.5. The constraint eventually reaches
proven reserves R when all the reserves have been abstracted. Output
volume flow V from the reserve to the economic system follows a bellshaped curve, reaching a maximum at the halfway point. The rate of change
of output volume flow V/V starts off at a maximum, based on the resource
available to be extracted, but gradually declines to zero at the halfway point,
and thereafter the rate of change becomes negative as output volume flow V
19
reduces. The rate of change of resource constraint B/B, starts off at a

maximum, but gradually declines to zero once the resource has been used
up. The net potential economic entropy change that arises from depletion
sdepletion [equal to k(V/V - B/B)], starts off at zero but gradually
declines as the effect of the resource depletion takes hold, eventually
resulting in a decline in the output growth rate V/V. It will be noted that,
from the beginning of the development of a reserve, the rate of growth of
the constraint is always greater than the rate of growth of output, though the
effect is very small initially, not affecting economic entropy change or
output growth significantly.
Should additional reserves be discovered or reserve recovery factors be
improved, these will create a new economic entropy gain, extending the
lifetime of the resources and arresting the impact of the decline in economic
entropy change arising as the resource constraint builds up. Thus the
production rate V is advanced, and the depletion rate B is set back.
We can therefore summarise net resource potential economic entropy drive
as being equal to that arising from discovery less that which is subsequently
lost to output via depletion:
S economic = S dis cov ery + S depletion
(8.7)
Where Sdepletion is negative. Once depleted, further economic entropy drive

to be gained from the resource is zero, unless new discoveries are made.
In respect of output volume flow V, as exergy value is transferred from the
resource reserve to the resource product in the production process, a Second
Law loss occurs as costs of mining and transport are incurred, though some
of this is picked up as other products bought by wages and profits. There is
however an irrevocable loss of thermodynamic exergy and realisation of
main body entropy, since, once the resource is mined, the exergy cannot be
returned from whence it came the ground or undersea without
expenditure in excess of that incurred in mining.
Last, as the product is consumed by the consumer, much of the exergy
passed to the product in the production process is consumed and realised as
an entropy increase to the environment. A total resource main-body entropy
change can therefore be postulated of the form:
S Total = S production + S consumption
(8.8)
20
Not included in the above representation is the effect of variable costs in

developing a resource. For instance, the cost of exploiting Athabascan tar
sands in terms of net extracted exergy is considerably more than extracting
oil from most traditional oil wells.
Turning now to renewable resources, which could include food sources
(fish, vegetation and animals, and the land and sea from whence they came),
as well as other energy sources, the major difference compared to a nonrenewable resource is that an input is provided by nature, the eco-system
and the sun to re-supply the resource as it is used up, and entropy increases
from production and consumption are counterbalanced by those emanating
(eventually) from the sun through the eco-system. This is similar to the
concept of new resources being discovered, set out in the previous analysis.
The standard model from which these can be derived is the Lotka-Volterra
model [Alfred Lotka 1925, Vito Volterra 1926], where humankind is
effectively the predator (y), and one or more of the other factors are the prey
(x). On a volume basis they are linked via the differential equations set out
at equation (8.9):
dx
= x xy
dt
and
dy
= xy y
dt
(8.9)
In the model the prey is assumed to have an unlimited food supply, and to
reproduce exponentially at the rate of , unless consumed by predators,
represented by a function of the contact xy between predator and prey.
Likewise growth in predators is governed by a function of the contact xy
between predator and prey, and the death rate of the predators.
We will not develop further the mathematics here, since this is involved.
Essentially, however, predators are dependent upon their harvest of prey,
and prey are dependent on the sun, nature and the eco-system to reproduce
themselves. If the predators have a high consumption rate of prey (in the
case of humankind utilising also capital stock, energy and technology) such
that the prey is gradually reduced, the sources on which the predators
depend upon reduces, and the predators face a decline in population. The
most obvious examples of this effect are over-fishing, over-farming of
arable land and deforestation. Using up resources (many environmentalists
might say squandering in an unsustainable way) entails a potential
degradation of the earths resources in the short-term ecological timescale.
21
In respect of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, the
effective stock x is very small, with a high throughput. Thus energy
generated is almost immediately transmitted to become electricity
consumption by humankind.
Neither wind nor solar power is guaranteed in intensity, however, the first
because of the variable, on-off speed of wind, and the second because of
potential cloud coverage and night periods restricting hours of availability.
However, siting solar power collectors in areas such as the Sahara desert
might in part get around the latter [Mackay (2008)] to provide significant
amounts of more continuous electrical energy. Methods of storing power
could include, at appropriate times, the use of smart chargers connected to
batteries of electric cars directed to download power, and pumped water
storage in hilly areas to convert potential energy into electrical power.
8.7
Population
Associated with the benefits of economic growth and energy consumption,

there has been an increase in world population. It is a matter of opinion as to
whether population size may now be approaching or has passed a
sustainable ceiling within a finite world, and whether system constraints are
building up to limit population size or reduce it. While humankind is not
subject to any other predators, it is dependent upon prey and harvests, and
its survival does depend upon on how it interacts with the eco-system, in a
manner which had previously not been regarded as important.
A thermodynamic viewpoint of population growth differs significantly from
the traditional economic approach, by virtue of evaluation of the real
contributions to output value.
Thus a traditional economist might project output as a combined wage and
profit rate w per unit of population, multiplied by population N, giving
output value wN supposedly nothing to do with the eco-system. The
inference of this approach is that as the population increases, so the net new
members are able to generate wealth to increase the GDP at an exponential
rate, with the implicit assumption that the population is the source of wealth
generation, and that resources are just there to be employed in that
generation.
22
The thermodynamic approach, however, assumes that output value arises

from the true contributions of each component mostly resources and
natural capital, and not economic man (though the latter is the instigator).
Therefore a potential rise in output value will only occur if the productive
content of the resources is there to form output.
In a position of resource shortage, or alteration of the eco-system arising
perhaps from human activity, humankind likely cannot burn its way out to
feed its growing population by consuming yet more, it has to consume less,
witness past recessions following oil price hikes. Humankind, in increasing
parts of the world, is a voracious consumer of resources for purposes other
than for propagation of the species. Thus cumulative population growth
potentially can become a constraint feeding into the entropy maximisation
principle, which may in turn affect population size.
Similar to resource models, models of population incorporating a carrying
capacity constraint are commonly based on the Verhulst formula set out at
equation (8.10):
dN
N
= rN 1
dt
R
(8.10)
Where N is population, r is the Malthusian parameter (the rate of maximum

population growth) and R is the so-called carrying capacity (the maximum
sustainable population). This equation does not necessarily indicate that
population will eventually maintain itself permanently at a fixed level. If a
decline occurs in resources available to support a population, this will affect
the maximum sustainable population level R, which may come down,
bringing about a decline in population size. If resources commanded rise,
population levels may be sustained or rise.
There are indications that human birth rates in some areas of the world are
declining. Between 1980 and 2010, population growth in West Europe has
been only 11%, and the rest of Europe 5%. However, growth elsewhere has
been larger North America 35%, Asia 44%, South America 63%, and
Africa 112%. In China measures to control family size have been in place
for some time. The Russian population is currently declining. The US
Census Bureau projects a world population level of 9bn by 2042, 31% more
than the current level of 6.9m.
23
Figure 8.14 Population growth rates in selected countries and the world - percent per annum
Source: UN
8.8
Climate Change
Studies carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

[IPCC] and other agencies all point to the necessity of reducing or
containing the impact of greenhouse gases on the world environmental
climate and atmospheric temperature, though there continues to be some
debate on the probable outcome. The scenarios painted by the agencies do,
however, illustrate a point of this book, that restrictions placed on economic
systems can potentially affect their forward path in quite a dramatic way,
retarding the equilibrium position. The impact of the analyses presented to a
world audience by IPCC may enact feedback to construct policies to change
the shape of the future. In the case of climate change, the restriction arises
on both sides of equation (4.3) increasing the costs associated with a waste
function, and restricting output value based on fossil fuels.
There is of course nothing initially to prevent world economies continuing
along a same as usual path, as they appear to have done so far, but without
policies in place to reduce greenhouse gases, the probability is that air
temperatures and sea levels will rise, to the potential detriment of the eco-
24
system. Whereas, from the earlier resource analysis, any limits in oil, gas
and coal reserves will ultimately automatically feed back into reduced
fossil-fuel energy consumption, no such automatic feedback is likely with
regard to achieving the required reduction in emissions. Instead, action to
avert a rise in global air temperature is dependent upon agreement and cooperation among the international community. It is possible that such action
might also be of an iterative, delayed kind, in response to accumulating
environmental disasters, rather too late according to IPCC.
Actions by governments on behalf of the populace aimed at choosing a path
which maximises potential entropy gain will therefore meet a constraint
operating on two fronts.
First, if fossil-fuel burning is reduced, this will impact on the volume level
of the GDP that is dependent upon this source of value generation a large
slice of the economic structure of the developed world. Follow-on to this
policy is a change in direction of potential entropy maximisation, first
towards other sources of energy not involving CO2 production, and second
by endeavouring to render fossil sources harmless (though the latter does
not avert consumption of non-renewable sources). Both actions will involve
significant additional, non-recoverable costs, which will add to the climate
change constraint, resulting in a loss of economic entropic driving force.
We could write
dV dZ CC
ds = k
Z CC
V
(8.11)
Where k is a composite productive content of output, and ZCC is the

constraint acting on that output. Clearly a large change in constraint
upwards would reduce the economic entropy driving force ds significantly,
impacting on output and causing it to slow down or decline.
If countries choose not to reduce fossil-fuel burning, on the evidence of
IPCC, a significant rise in global air temperature and water levels will
occur, which will cause a reduction in output value to some if not many
economies through a loss of agricultural farming capacity, and a loss of
habitation located in low-lying areas liable to sea flooding, with a
consequent large-scale write-off of capital stock. Of more concern,
however, is the potential significant effect on the eco-system, which
humankind has previously mostly ignored, and which will affect the quality
and quantity of natural capital, which in turn will impact on sustainability.
25
Approximately 55% of world CO2 emissions increases arise from fossil fuel
use, and the rest from deforestation, agriculture and other areas (IPCC SPM
1). Table 8.2 and figure 8.15 illustrate the structure and trends in CO2
emissions (relating to consumption and flaring of fossil fuels), GDP and
population.
In 2006, the top five countries, USA, China, Russia (all high consumers of
coal) plus India and Japan accounted for nearly 55% of global CO2 output
from consumption and flaring of fossil fuels. World emission intensity
(CO2/GDP) at 2006 stood at 0.486Kg/$ of output, a 1% reduction on the
figure for 2000, and a 44% reduction on the figure for 1980. World GDP, of
course, had been marching onwards in that period, with a resultant
significant increase in CO2 production from fossil fuels, from 18,333 mn
tonnes in 1980 to 28,003 mn tonnes in 2006. The world recession in 2008
likely has temporarily slowed this trend.
Figure 8.15 shows that, with the exception of France, which has significant
nuclear input to electricity generation, most countries show only a small
drop in carbon intensity. The levels for China and Japan have recently been
rising, the former on a base of coal-fired power. Over the 20-year period to
2000 the world ratio has declined by less than 0.4% per annum. Policies to
reduce this ratio include nuclear and renewable power, coupled with electric
drive technology. While reduction in emissions ratios will assist in reducing
mans impact on climate change, the other strategy is to reduce both per
capita energy consumption and energy intensity/GDP, the trends of which
are shown in figure 8.1. Here reduction has been more successful, with
world energy intensity declining by about 2.4% per annum. Offset against
this has been a rise in population of nearly 1.6% per annum.
Carbon
Intensity
CO2/PEC
ratio
2.4548
2.9840
2.3472
2.2087
2.2987
2.3625
1.9976
2.3211
2.1991
2.4327
1.3844
3.2208
2.3461
2.2665
1.4832
2.2290
2.3853
2.5618
CO2 Output
mn toe pa
5696.8
5606.5
1587.2
1249.7
1212.7
823.5
538.8
536.5
476.1
448.0
377.5
394.5
416.3
327.7
332.4
7978.9
28003.0
23850.0
USA
China
Russia
India
Japan
Germany
Canada
UK
South Korea
Italy
France
Australia
Mexico
Spain
Brazil
Rest of World
World 2006
World 2000
Country
Table 8.2 CO2 Output, Primary Energy Consumption, GDP and Population 2006
9310.0
11740.0
3579.5
224.1
144.6
177.4
122.5
272.7
184.2
216.5
231.1
269.7
348.6
527.6
565.8
676.2
1878.8
2320.7
mn toe pa
Primary
Energy
Consumption
0.1916
0.2039
0.2312
0.1518
0.1382
0.1722
0.1938
0.1609
0.1200
0.2135
0.1322
0.2652
0.1546
0.1491
0.1541
0.4589
0.2163
0.2060
Kgoe/$
Energy
Intensity
Energy/GDP
$48,600
$57,564
$15,482
$1,477
$1,046
$1,030
$632
$1,695
$1,535
$1,014
$1,749
$1,017
$2,255
$3,538
$3,671
$1,474
$8,685
$11,265
bn $ pa
GDP PPP *
6080.0
6536.0
2839.5
189.3
44.1
104.8
20.7
63.2
58.9
48.3
60.5
32.6
82.4
127.8
1109.8
142.5
1311.8
299.8
mn
Population
$7,993
$8,807
$5,452
$7,800
$23,731
$9,838
$30,469
$26,819
$26,078
$20,992
$28,888
$31,178
$27,373
$27,694
$3,308
$10,340
$6,621
$37,572
$ pa
GDP/Hd
1.531
1.796
1.261
1.184
3.280
1.694
5.905
4.314
3.129
4.482
3.818
8.269
4.232
4.129
0.510
4.745
1.432
7.740
toe pa
PEC/Hd
0.4907
0.4865
0.5154
0.2251
0.3133
0.4039
0.6242
0.2227
0.2919
0.4696
0.3068
0.5298
0.3652
0.3428
0.3404
1.0771
0.6455
0.5057
Kg/$
Emission
Intensity
CO2/GDP
26
27
0
1980
China
Japan
India
UK
France
Russia
World
USA
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Figure 8.15 Carbon Intensity - ratio CO2 emissions from consumption & flaring of fossil fuels /
primary energy consumption (tonnes CO2 / tonnes oil equivalent) 1980 2004.Sources: EIA,
BP
The fourth assessment report of the IPCC sets out a range of scenarios of
CO2 emission reductions for increasing levels of global temperature and sea
levels. Non of the scenarios includes for a rise in temperature of less than
2C, and it is to be assumed that IPCC regard some rise in temperature as
unavoidable. The strategy that achieves the lowest estimated increase in
temperature and sea levels is the one that requires the greatest reduction in
CO2 emissions. It is inevitable that some countries may be more committed
than others, and some may feel that their input should be less than others by
virtue of history and their relative economic development. Table 8.3
abstracts data from the IPCC table:
Table 8.3 IPCC Stabilisation Scenarios
Stabilisation
Scenarios
Change in Global CO2

emissions in 2050
(percent of 2000
emissions)
Global Average
Temperature Increase
above pre-industrial at
equilibrium
Global average sea

level rise above preindustrial at
equilibrium
Metres
-85 to -50
2.0 2.4
0.4 1.4
II
-60 to -30
2.4 2.8
0.5 1.7
III
-30 to +5
2.8 3.2
0.6 1.9
IV
+10 to +60
3.2 4.0
0.6 2.4
+25 to +85
4.0 4.9
0.8 2.9
VI
+90 to +140
4.9 6.1
1.0 3.7
Source: IPCC AR4 Table 5.1
28
IPCC set out a number of areas of CO2 mitigation, including energy (electric
and non-electric) transportation, buildings, industry, agriculture, forest and
waste management, along with cost estimates of strategies to meet potential
savings (as a percent of GDP), which rise, the greater is the reduction in
emissions to be achieved.
Temperature rises at scenarios III and upwards are likely unacceptable in
terms of their impact on the environment.
It is intuitive to work back from a particular scenario to see the implications
of a reduction in emissions. For example, in Scenario I a reduction of 85%
in emissions against 2000 levels would imply (from table 8.2) world
emissions in 2050 of 23,850 - 85% = 3,577.5 mn tonnes CO2 (assuming that
fossil emissions are in proportion to other emissions). Working back further,
if no improvements in emissions intensity were achieved over 2000, this
would imply, from the last column table 8.2, a level of world GDP of only
3,577/0.4907 = $7,290bn (compared to $48,600bn in 2000). Working back
still further, if it is assumed that population grows to 9bn by 2050, then the
level of world GDP per capita at 2050 would be $7,290/9 = $810 per capita,
only 10% of the world level of $7,993 in 2000.
Clearly the above hypothetical example is somewhat unlikely; in particular,
that reductions in the intensity ratios of both emissions and energy to GDP
are taking place, as noted earlier. These may continue to improve, if actions
are taken by member states of the global economy to invest in relevant
capital stock and technologies to mitigate climate change. Rises in
population size will, however, dilute significantly the level of GDP per
capita.
Table 8.4 sets out a hypothetical example of progression from 1980 to 2050,
assuming that world CO2 output declined by 2.4% per annum from 2002
onwards to reach a level of 7,155 Gt pa, a reduction of 70%, not far from
the IPCC maximum reduction of 85% set out at table 8.3. In passing it
should be noted that table 8.2 shows that the carbon level rose 17.4% from
2000 to 2006. Thus already the world is behind on this projection. The other
key assumptions made in table 8.4 are that carbon intensity reduces by 0.5%
pa and energy intensity reduces by 2.0% pa, on a base of some continuation
of efficiency improvements and some changes in habit. Last, it is assumed
that world population continues to grow to reach a level of 9bn by 2050, in
line with US Census Bureau projections. The calculations in the table are
carried out in reverse, that is, from carbon target to primary energy
consumption, then to GDP and last to GDP per capita.
18333.3
21426.1
23850.0
18700.0
14660.0
11490.0
9010.0
7155.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
4311.0
3614.0
1.9800
5247.0
6346.0
7695.0
9310.0
8131.6
6641.9
mn toe pa
Primary
Energy
Consumption
2.0900
2.1900
2.3100
2.4300
2.5618
2.6349
2.7602
ratio
mn toe pa
1980
Carbon
Intensity
CO2/PEC
CO2 Output
0.0697
0.0853
0.1045
0.1279
0.1565
0.1916
0.2638
0.3122
Kgoe/$
Energy
Intensity
Energy/GDP
$51,823.0
$50,510.0
$50,222.0
$49,632.0
$49,170.0
$48,600.0
$30,820.3
$21,272.1
bn $ pa
GDP PPP
(2000)
9000.0
8600.0
8100.0
7500.0
6800.0
6080.0
5280.5
4451.0
mn
Population
$5,758
$5,873
$6,200
$6,618
$7,231
$7,993
$5,837
$4,779
$ pa
GDP/Hd
0.402
0.501
0.648
0.846
1.132
1.531
1.540
1.492
toe pa
PEC/Hd
0.1381
0.1784
0.2288
0.2954
0.3803
0.4907
0.6952
0.8618
Kg/$
Emission
Intensity
CO2/GDP
Table 8.4 Projections to 2050 of World Carbon Emissions*,

Primary Energy Consumption, GDP, Population and GDP per Capita
* From consumption and flaring of fossil fuels
29
30
It can be seen that world GDP per capita projected on this basis is likely to
stagnate to 2050 if the world adheres to the emission targets recommended
by IPCC. The actuality in between 2000 and 2050 is likely to be a good deal
different to the projection above, taking into account same as usual trends,
delayed action to implement policies, non-adherence and the paths of
individual countries. Some countries, in particular, Russia, China, Australia,
Canada and USA have very high emissions intensity ratios (CO2/GDP) to
contend with. It is quite possible that reductions of emissions to low levels
may not be achievable.
The overall emission intensity reduction from 2000 (the base level assumed
by IPCC) to 2050 in the above example is from 0.4907 down to 0.1381,
equivalent to a reduction of 71.8%. This figure is diluted in terms of GDP
per capita, however, by an increase in world population of 48%. If
population had remained level, GDP per capita would have risen.
A means of illustrating the impact on GDP per capita of varying emissions
intensity across the range of emission change requirements stated by IPCC
to 2050 is set out at figure 8.16.
6
GDP per capita growth

3.3% pa
Index GDP per capita 2000 = 1
2.8% pa
2.2% pa
Emission
intensity and
population
factor 2050
compared to
2000
1.0
0.8
1.4% pa
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.% pa
1
-100%
-75%
I
-50%
II
-25%
III
0
0%
25%
50%
IV
75%
100%
125%
VI
IPCC Stabilisation Scenarios
Figure 8.16 World GDP per capita as a function of Global Carbon Emissions Change
31
The range of IPCC stabilisation scenarios from table 8.3 is placed along the
X-axis of the chart, with areas progressively shaded according to the
increase in emissions and expected increases in global temperatures and sea
levels. For low temperature rises only category I and perhaps II are viable,
limiting policy consideration only to the left-hand part of the chart. An
index of world GDP per capita is placed along the Y-axis, with the index of
GDP per capita at year 2000 ($7,993 PPP constant prices) set at 1. While
the author would no longer support projections of exponential growth, some
approximate equivalents are set out for each index level to help readers.
Thus, for example, an index of 5 in 2050, compared to 1 in 2000, would
represent growth of 3.3% pa over 50 years between 2000 and 2050. As
noted earlier, the position has deteriorated since 2000 with emissions at
2006 up by 17%, and population increased by 7.5%. Thus the world
economy is currently marching towards the north-east part of the chart.
Splayed out across the chart is a range of world emission and population
intensity factors, where 1 represents the position in year 2000. Table 8.4
shows this to be an emission intensity of 0.4907 combined with a
population of 6.08bn. At the upper end a factor of 0.2, for example, might
represent a combination of an increased population to 9bn combined with a
reduction in emission intensity from 0.4907 in 2000 down to 0.0663 in
2050, the latter about half the level of 0.1381 given in the example at table
8.4.
It is a matter of evidence as to how far down emissions intensity can be
driven. Clearly if all countries emulated France in its nuclear programme,
undertook extensive electricity programmes in renewable sources, and
switched road transport into electrically driven mode, then some advances
beyond the thermodynamic limits of fossil-fired energy might be possible.
Over a 40-year period changes to consumer habits might also be engineered,
particularly if faced with unpalatable energy costs and loss of living
standards. A drop in population projection below 9bn would also help. The
alternative is for world humanity to settle for a high temperature rise. This
entails very high global risks and a significant, irrevocable effect on the
eco-system and life; and with the potential for a large reduction in levels of
economic and social activity.
The above analysis adds weight to the conclusions concerning energy
resources that the next few decades will likely follow a different path than
one based on projecting GDP on an escalating, exponential basis. No
account has been taken in this chapter of other factors, such as agriculture,
fishing, water, and the move to an urban rather than a rural life. The latter
32
factors will on the balance of probability likely add further weight to the
analysis. There is likely to be a significant shift to the left in equation (4.3)
of this book. Thus no single reaction kinetic, as set out at chapter 4, is likely
to describe the forward path. The particular path that world economic
development will follow is likely to be quite complex, given the interactions
of the many parties, factors and systems involved, and that currently the
world is still proceeding in the opposite direction to the recommendations of
IPCC.
In 1972 a systems approach was attempted by Meadows (1972) for the Club
of Rome, spawning a book The Limits to Growth, echoing perhaps
concerns of Malthus [Malthus, T. R. (1798)]. Limits to Growth subsequently
lost interest as economic development proceeded apace. It has recently been
reviewed however by Turner [Turner, G. (2008)] who concluded that 30
years of historical data compared favourably with the business-as-usual
standard run scenario of Limits to Growth, but did not compare
favourably with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology
or stabilizing behaviour and policies.
To summarise, climate change places a potential constraint on the forward
path of output, in line with the thermo-economic thesis put forward in this
book.
33
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40
LIST OF SYMBOLS
Symbol
Thermo-Economic
Thermodynamic
Time
Time
Price
Pressure
Volume flow rate
Volume (3-D)
Number of stock units
Number of molecules
v (=V/N)
Specific Volume Rate
Specific Volume (1/density)
G (=PV)
Value flow rate
Energy
Productive Content/unit
Boltzmann constant
Nk
Stock Productive Content
n.a.
Index of Trading Value
Temperature
Entropy
Entropy
s (=S/N)
Entropy per unit
Entropy per unit
Free Value (flow)
Free Energy (Helmholtz)
Free Value (flow)
Free Energy (Gibb)
f (=F/N)
Free Value per unit
Free Energy per unit
Cv
Specific Value (Const volume)
Specific Heat (Const volume)
CP
Specific Value (Const price)
Specific Heat (Const pressure)
Elastic Index
Index Expansion/Compression
(=CP/CV)
Isentropic Index
Isentropic Index
Entropic Value flow
Heat Supplied/lost
Work Value flow
Work Done
Internal Value (stock value)
Internal Energy
u (=U/N)
Internal Value per unit
Internal Energy per unit
Equilibrium Constant
Equilibrium Constant
Lifetime Ratio
n.a.
Value Capacity Coefficient Cv/k
Cv/k
41
INDEX
Active, 92-94
Anderson, 170
Annila, 5,111
Arrhenius, 94
Avogadro, 6, 22, 60
Ayres, 2, 3, 20, 22, 60,178, 210
Bacon, 170
Baron, 108
Baumgrtner, 3
Boltzmann, 7, 11, 38, 39
Bonds and gilts, 165-177
Brekke, 210
Bryant, 2, 4, 91
Candeal, 3, 81
Carnot, 114
Carriers, holders of value, 8
Chakrabarti, 3,38
Chakraborti, 3, 38
Chatterjee, 3, 38
Chen, 3
Climate change, 200-209
Club of Rome, 209
Cobb-Douglas, 82, 88
Constant price, 67-69
Constant volume, 63-66
Constrained maximisation, 2
Constraints, 102-104
Costanza, 2
Cycle, 113-117
Daly, 3
Darwin, 211
Degree of freedom, 65
Degree of value, 65
Distribution of income, 37-39
Domingos, 3, 81
Dragulescu, 3, 38
Economic entropy, 101-103, 140151, 156-157, 162-163, 165, 171177, 193-197, 201
Econophysics, 3, 33
Eco-system, 200-209
Elastic index, 70, 73, 77-79
Embodied value, 8, 13, 20
Emission intensity, 202-207
Energy capital stock, 180-181
Energy consumption per capita,
178-180
Energy intensity, 178-180
Energy resource substitution, 191193
Entropic index, 76-77
Entropic value, 54
Entropy, 61-62
Entropy and maximisation, 108-113
Environmental waste stock, 48
Equilibrium, 94-104
Equilibrium constant, 98-99
Estrella & Trubin, 169
Eyring, 100
Exergy, 20-21
Ferrero, 3, 38
Frederick, Loewenstein,
ODonoghue, 173
First Law of Thermodynamics, 5059
Fisher, 2
Flow and non-flow, 6-7
Foley, 3, 81
Free value, 94-96
Gamma distribution, 39
Gas/chemical reactions, 90
Georgescu-Roegan, 1, 2
Gibbs, 2, 94
Goldberg, 4
Gompertz, 107
Greene, 108
Grubbestrm, 3
Hannon, 2
42
Hansen, 140
Helmholtz free energy, 94
Herwig, 5, 110
Hicks, 88, 140
Hicks-neutral technical progress, 88
Hubbert, 185
Ideal gas, 6
Ideal economic equation, 9-14
Ideal gas equation, 6, 14
Inactive, 92-94
Index of trading value, 8-9
Interest rates, 140-151
Internal energy, 50
Internal value, 50-53
IPCC, 200-207
IS/LM model, 140
Isentropic process, 74
Iso-trading process, 69-71
Joule cycle, 115
Kay, 4, 89
Keynes, Keynesian, 119, 140
Kinetic theory of gases, 6
Klein, 37
Labour and unemployment, 152-159
Law of diminishing marginal utility,
82
Law of maximum entropy
production, 111
Le Chatelier Principle, 2, 3, 4, 91
Leontief, 25
Lifetime, 19, 57
Limits to growth, 2, 107
Liquidity preference, 141, 168
Lisman, 2
Logistic function, 107
Lognormal distribution, 37
Long & short dated bonds, 155-177
Loschmidt, 6
Lotka-Volterra model, 197
Mackay, 198
Malthus, 209
Mahulikar, 5, 110
Marginal entropic ratio, 85

Martins, 3, 113
Marx, 2
Maxwell Boltzmann Distribution,
38-39
Meadows, 2, 107, 209
Miguel, 81
Mirowski, 3
Monetarist school, 119
Monetary stock model, 31
Money, 118-151
Money elasticity, 121-133
Money entropy, 133-151
Morganstern, 108
Nelson & Siegel, 170
Neo-classical economics, 211
Non-renewable energy, 183-191
Odum, 2
OPEC, 1
Open and closed systems, 7
Otto cycle, 115
Patriarca, 3
Peak oil, 185
Phillips curve 154-155
Pikler, 2, 9
Polytropic process, 71-74, 129-133
Population, 198-200
Preferred habitat, 168
Productive content, 7-8, 24
Proops, 3
Pure expectations, 168
Purica, 3, 38
Quantity theory, 118
Rankine cycle, 115
Reaction kinetics, 104-107
Renewable resources, 46, 191-193
Resource depletion, 183-198
Resource stocks, 46
Reversible & irreversible processes,
51-53
Ruth, 4
Salthe, 5, 111
Samuelson, 2, 9, 89
Schandl, 22
Schneider, 4, 89
Schrdinger, 4, 89
Second Law of Thermodynamics,
59-62
Sigmoid, 107
Smith, 3, 81
Soddy, 2
Sllner, 3
Solow, 88
Sousa, 3, 81
Specific heat, 57-64
Specific internal value, 56
Specific money, 122-130
Specific price, 122-130
Specific value, 57
Specific value constant volume, 6466
Specific value constant price, 67
Specific volume rate, 19
Steady state economics, 3
Sustainability, 210-214
Svensson, 170
Swenson, 111
Temperature, 6-7, 56
Thermodynamic theory of
economics, 4
Thermo-economics of resources,
193-198
Thermoeconomics and
sustainability, 210-214
Turner, 209
Unemployment, 152-159
Utility, 81-87
Value capacity coefficient, 65, 67,
75-79
Value rate, 43
Van del Waal, 6
Verhulst equation, 107, 194, 199
Von Neumann, 108
Velocity of circulation, 9, 33, 118133
Wage rate, 35-36, 152-159
Waggoner, 170
Wall, 22
Warr, 3, 22, 60, 178
Work done, 50-59, 96
Yakovenko, 3, 38
Yield, yield spread, 165-177
Yuqing, 3, 38
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THERMOECONOMICS

A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics

VOCAT International Ltd

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in

Stock and Flow Processes

Production and Entropy Processes

Labour and Unemployment

Investment and Economic Entropy

Energy, Resources and the Economy

Thermoeconomics and Sustainability

ENERGY, RESOURCES AND THE ECONOMY

Energy and the Economy

Economic systems of developed and developing countries have become

In some developed economies, energy consumption per capita has begun to

Energy and Capital Stock

The use of energy in an economy is predominantly through the powering

To assess the impact of changes in energy availability on economic output,

According to the US Energy Information Administration, oil, natural gas

Figure 8.4 A Non-renewable Energy Resource Reserve

At a current point in time, information is known of production (depletion)

and when it may occur is an exercise in trend analysis, sensitive to

Figure 8.6 World Oil Reserves and Cumulative Production

Sources: BP, EIA.

On present trends, based on oil companies and national agencies estimates

Figure 8.7 World Natural Gas Reserves and Cumulative Production

A more recent possible entre to the gas market is the technology of

000 barrels per day .

production might then gradually decline in level over many years,

Figure 8.9 World Coal Reserves/Production Ratio Years

It is unlikely that a reduction in current energy resource production will

Energy Resource Substitution

Figure 8.10 World Nuclear Electricity Consumption TWh

Nuclear % Share of World Electricity Installed Capacity

Figure 8.11 World Nuclear Power Installed Capacity

Growth of hydroelectric power (a renewable resource) is limited by

Figure 8.12 % Share of World Electricity Installed Capacity taken by

Although new reserve discoveries for a resource make no difference to the

With the solution at any time t of:

Where is the production/net reserves rate per annum, R is gross proven

By comparing equations (8.1) and (8.3) it can be seen that:

By taking logs and differentiating equation (8.4) we have:

From our volume economic entropy equation (4.23) at chapter 4 we could

where dsdepletion is the potential economic entropy change accompanying the

Resource constraint B follows cumulative resource depletion N (where N =

reduces. The rate of change of resource constraint B/B, starts off at a

S economic = S dis cov ery + S depletion

Where Sdepletion is negative. Once depleted, further economic entropy drive

S Total = S production + S consumption

Not included in the above representation is the effect of variable costs in

Associated with the benefits of economic growth and energy consumption,

The thermodynamic approach, however, assumes that output value arises

Where N is population, r is the Malthusian parameter (the rate of maximum

Studies carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Where k is a composite productive content of output, and ZCC is the

Change in Global CO2

Global average sea

Source: IPCC AR4 Table 5.1

Table 8.4 Projections to 2050 of World Carbon Emissions*,

GDP per capita growth