Carrier WiFi and Small Cells in LTE and

Beyond: Market Opportunities and Forecasts 20122017

November 2012

Overview:
Driven by the growing surge for mobile broadband, carriers worldwide are investing in WiFi and small cell infrastructure as an economically efficient solution to expand network capacity and coverage. Not only do WiFi and small cells deployments minimize network planning, redesign and real estate costs, they also allow carriers to avoid or minimize new frequency allocation costs. Small cells, in many cases, can utilize the same frequency spectrum that carriers have allocated for macro cell deployment, while WiFi access points utilize unlicensed spectrum. The associated savings in both CAPEX and OPEX, together with higher throughout rates make WiFi and small cell deployments make WiFi and small cells a necessity for Carriers worldwide. Mind commerce, thus expects that Carrier WiFi and small cells infrastructure market will grow at a CAGR of nearly 37% over the next five years eventually accounting for nearly USD 9 Billion in revenues by the end of 2017. Nonetheless, the market still faces a number of serious challenges including but not limited to interference management, optimization and backhaul. This report provides an in-depth assessment of the Carrier WiFi and small cells market, including business models, market drivers, challenges, value chain analysis, operator and vendor strategies, and a quantitative assessment of the industry from 2012 to 2017. The report covers the following topics: Business Case for Carrier WiFi and Small Cells: An assessment of the business case for carrier WiFi and small cells. Technology Analysis: Evaluation of the underlying technology supporting carrier WiFi and small cell solutions Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Deployments: Analysis of major Carrier WiFi and small cell solution deployments by carriers worldwide Carrier & Vendor Strategies: Aalysis of carriers and vendors positioning to capitalize on Carrier WiFi and small cell opportunities Market Analysis and Forecasts: A global and regional assessment of the market size (unit shipments and revenues) and forecasts for the carrier WiFi and small cells market from 2012 to 2016 Industry Value Chain: Analysis of the Carrier WiFi and small cells value chain with indicative revenue assessments of key market players across the value chain and predictions about the economic model evolution Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Industry Roadmap 2012 - 2017: Analysis of the roadmap for the industry from 2012 to 2017

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Key Findings:

The carrier WiFi and small cells infrastructure market will grow at CAGR of 37% over next five years, accounting for nearly USD 9 Billion in revenues by the end of 2017. The carrier WiFi market alone is expected to account for nearly USD 5 Billion in global revenues worldwide by 2017, growing at a CAGR of 33 % between 2012 and 2017. The small cells market is expected to account for nearly USD 4 Billion in global revenues worldwide by 2017, growing at a CAGR of nearly 40 % between 2012 and 2017 The continued demand for mobile broadband services will play a critical role in maintaining the Carrier WiFi and small cell market's growth, amid a growing demand of convergent, intelligent and vendor agnostic small cell platforms by Carriers. Fixed line carriers are capitalizing on their infrastructure investments to offer Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS). Mind Commerce expects Fixed line carriers to form an integral part of the industry's value chain representing as much as 20% of the revenue share.

Key Questions Answered:

How many LTE enabled small cells will ship in 2017? What are carrier WiFi and small cells and why are they important? What are carrier's attitudes towards WiFi and small cell solutions? How much will the carrier WiFi and small cell markets be worth in 2017? How much CAPEX can carriers save by deploying WiFi and small cell solutions? Which vendors are leading the market and what are the key strategies for vendors? What will be the regional outlook for revenue in the carrier WiFi and small cells market? How is the industry's value chain structured for WiFi and small cells infrastructure and services? What benefits do small cells and WiFi bring to network operators and the ecosystem as a whole?

Target Audience:
Investment Firms Application Developers Mobile Device Vendors Mobile Network Carriers Service Bureau Companies WiFi Infrastructure Vendors Wireless Infrastructure Vendors Small Cell Infrastructure Vendors Telecom Managed Service Providers

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Companies in Report
ADTRAN Airvana Alcatel-Lucent Aptilo Networks Argela Aruba Networks AT&T Mobility AudioCodes BelAir Networks Bouygues Telecom British Telecom BSNL China Mobile China Telecom China Unicom Chunghwa Telecom Cisco Claro (America Movil) Clearwire Colt Telecom Comcast Contela Cox Communications CSL Hong Kong Devicescape Eircom Ericsson Everything Everywhere Genband HTC Corporation Huawei Hutchison 3 Group ip.access iPass Juniper Networks KDDI Kineto Wireless Korea Telecom KPN LG Electronics LG Uplus Maxis MegaFon MetroPCS Motorola Mobility Motorola Solutions Movilnet Venezuela Movistar MTS Russia NEC Nokia Siemens Networks NTT DoCoMo Oi Brazil Optus (Australia) Orange (France Telecom) Orascom PLTD (Smart Communications Phillipines) Portugal Telecom PT Telkom Qualcomm Reliance Communications Research in Motion Rogers Canada Ruckus Wireless Samsung Group SFR SK telecom Softbank Sprint Swisscom Mobile Tata Teleservices Tele2 Sweden Telecom Italia Mobile Telefnica Moviles Telefnica O2 Telenor Group TeliaSonera Telstra Telus Mobility Canada Tim Brasil T-Mobile Austria T-Mobile Czech Republic T-Mobile Europe T-Mobile USA Turkcell Ubee-AirWalk Ubiquisys US.Cellular Verizon Wireless Vimpelcom Virgin Media Vodafone Essar Vodafone Group Vodafone Italy Vodafone UK Wind (Italy) Wi-tribe (Pakistan) Yota (Russia) Zain Bahrain Zain Kuwait Zain Saudi Arabia

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Table of Contents:
1 Chapter 1: Introduction 10 1.1 Executive Summary 10 1.2 Topics Covered 11 1.3 Key Findings 12 1.4 Key Questions Answered 13 1.5 Target Audience 14 1.6 Companies Mentioned 15 2 Chapter 2: An Overview of Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Technology 20 2.1 The Evolution Towards Heterogeneous Networks 20 2.2 What is Carrier WiFi 22 2.2.1 Open Access vs. Mobile Data Offload Carrier WiFi 22 2.2.2 Convergence with Small Cell Solutions 24 2.3 What are Small Cells 25 2.3.1 Femtocells 26 2.3.2 Picocells 27 2.3.3 Microcells 27 2.3.4 Metrocells 27 2.4 Towards a Convergent Small Cell Architecture 28 2.5 Small Cell Deployment Scenarios 29 2.5.1 Home/Residential Deployments: 29 2.5.2 Enterprise Deployments: 29 2.5.3 Metro and Public Space Deployments: 30 2.5.4 Rural Deployments: 30 2.6 Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Standardization Initiatives 31 2.6.1 The Small Cell Forum 31 2.6.2 Hotspot 2.0 Task Group 33 2.6.3 Next Generation Hotspot 35 3 Chapter 3: The Business Case for the Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Market 36 3.1 Key Market Drivers 36 3.1.1 The Increasing Demand for Mobile Broadband 36 3.1.2 CapEX and OpEX Reduction 37 3.1.3 Higher Throughput per Cell 38 3.1.4 Energy Savings: Towards a Greener Network Environment 38 3.2 Market Barriers & Challenges 39 3.2.1 Coverage and Performance Uncertainty 39 3.2.2 Security Considerations 39 3.2.3 Interference Management 40 3.2.4 Mobility Management 40 3.2.5 Self Organisation 41 3.2.6 Backhaul Challenges 41 3.2.7 Alternative Solutions 42 3.3 The Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Value Chain 44 3.4 The Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Industry Roadmap 2012 2017 46 3.4.1 2010 - 2012: Commercialization of Femtocells 46 3.4.2 2013 - 2014: Managed WiFi Data Offloading 47 3.4.3 2015 - 2017: The HetNets Era - Large Scale Integration of Macrocells, Small Cells and Carrier WiFi 47 3.5 Carrier WiFi and Small Cells in LTE & Beyond: Key Trends 48 3.5.1 Integration of DAS 48 3.5.2 Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS) and Femtocells as a Service (FaaS) 49 3.5.3 Self Organizing Networks (SON) 50 4 Chapter 4: Major Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Deployments 52 4.1 AT&T Mobility 57 4.2 Eircom 57 4.3 KDDI 58 4.4 Korea Telecom 60 4.5 SK Telecom 60 4.6 Optus Australia 61 4.7 SFR France 61 4.8 Sprint 62 4.9 Reliance Communications 63 4.10 Softbank Japan 63 4.11 Telefonica O2 UK 64 4.12 T-Mobile 64 4.13 Tim Brasil 65 4.14 U.S Cellular 66 4.15 Verizon Wireless 66 4.16 Vodafone 66 4.17 Zain Bahrain 67 4.18 Zain Saudi Arabia 67 5 Chapter 5: Vendor Landscape 68 5.1 Vendor Ranking Matrix 68 5.2 Vendor Product Portfolio and Strategy 72 5.2.1 ADTRAN 72 5.2.2 Argela 73 5.2.3 Airvana 74 5.2.4 Aptilo Networks 74 5.2.5 Aruba Networks 75 5.2.6 Alcatel-Lucent 76 5.2.7 Cisco 77 5.2.8 Contela 78 5.2.9 Devicescape 79 5.2.10 Ericsson 80 5.2.11 Huawei 81 5.2.12 Ip.access 82 5.2.13 Juniper Networks 83 5.2.14 Kineto Wireless 84 5.2.15 Motorola Solutions 85 5.2.16 NEC 86 5.2.17 Nokia Siemens Networks 87 5.2.18 Ruckus Wireless 88 5.2.19 Samsung 89 5.2.20 Ubee-AirWalk 90 5.2.21 Ubiquisys 91 6 Chapter 6: Market Analysis & Forecasts 92 6.1 The Global Carrier WiFi Market: 2012 - 2017 92 6.1.1 Global Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments and Revenue: 2012 2017 92 6.1.2 Global Carrier WiFi Access Point and Controller Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 94 6.1.3 WiFi Offload vs Standard WiFi Access Points: 2012 2017 96 6.1.4 Regional Outlook of the Market: 2012 - 2017 100

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Table of Contents (cont.):

6.2 6.2.1 6.2.2 6.2.3 6.2.4 6.2.5 6.2.6 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.3.3 6.3.4 6.3.5 6.3.6 6.3.7 6.4 6.4.1 6.4.2 6.4.3 6.4.4 6.4.5 6.4.6 Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments and Revenues by Region: 2012 - 2017 102 Asia Pacific 102 Eastern Europe 104 Latin & Central America 106 Middle East & Africa 108 North America 110 Western Europe 112 The Global Small Cell Market: 2012 - 2017 114 Global Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenue: 2012 - 2017 114 Global Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenue by Cell Type: 2012 - 2017 Global Femtocell Unit Shipments and Revenue: 2012 - 2017 118 Global Picocell Unit Shipments and Revenue: 2012 - 2017 119 Global Microcell Unit Shipments and Revenue: 2012 - 2017 120 Global Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenue by Technology: 2012 - 2017 Regional Outlook of the Market: 2012 - 2017 123 Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenues by Region: 2012 - 2017 125 Asia Pacific 125 Eastern Europe 127 Latin & Central America 129 Middle East & Africa 131 North America 133 Western Europe 135

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List of Tables
Table 1: Carrier WiFi Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012 Table 2: Small Cells Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012 69 71

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List of Figures
Figure 1: The HetNets Concept 21 Figure 2: Mobile Data Offloading via WiFi within a Carrier Network 23 Figure 3: Illustration of Small Cell Deployments within a Carrier Network 25 Figure 4: Small Cell Deployments in Home, Enterprise, Urban and Rural Scenarios 28 Figure 5: Small Cell Forum's Scope of Work 33 Figure 6: The Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Value Chain 44 Figure 7: The Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Industry Roadmap: 2012 - 2017 46 Figure 8: The Self Organizing Networks (SON) Concept 50 Figure 9: KDDI's 3M Strategy Vision 59 Figure 10: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 92 Figure 11: Carrier WiFi Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 93 Figure 12: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments by Category: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 94 Figure 13: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipment Revenues by Category: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 95 Figure 14: WiFi Offload vs. Standard WiFi Access Point Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) Figure 15: Carrier WiFi Offload Access Point Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 97 Figure 16: Standard Carrier WiFi Access Point Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 97 Figure 17: WiFi Offload vs. Standard WiFi Access Point Unit Shipment Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) Figure 18: Carrier WiFi Offload Access Point Unit Shipment Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 99 Figure 19: Standard Carrier WiFi Access Point Unit Shipment Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 99 Figure 20: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments by Region: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 100 Figure 21: Carrier WiFi Revenues by Region: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 101 Figure 22: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Asia Pacific: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 102 Figure 23: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Asia Pacific: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 103 Figure 24: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Eastern Europe: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 104 Figure 25: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Eastern Europe: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 105 Figure 26: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Latin & Central America: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 106 Figure 27: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Latin & Central America: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 107 Figure 28: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Middle East & Africa: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 108 Figure 29: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Middle East & Africa: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 109 Figure 30: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in North America: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 110 Figure 31: Carrier WiFi Revenues in North America: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 111 Figure 32: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Western Europe: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 112 Figure 33: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Western Europe: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 113 Figure 34: Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 114 Figure 35: Small Cell Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 115 Figure 36: Small Cell Unit Shipments by Cell Type: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 116 Figure 37: Small Cell Revenues by Cell Type: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 117 Figure 38: Femtocell Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 118 Figure 39: Femtocell Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 118 Figure 40: Picocell Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 119 Figure 41: Picocell Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 119 Figure 42: Microcell Unit Shipments: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 120 Figure 43: Microcell Revenues: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 120 Figure 44: Small Cell Unit Shipments by Technology: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 121 Figure 45: Small Cell Revenues by Technology: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 122 Figure 46: Small Cell Unit Shipments by Region: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 123 Figure 47: Small Cell Revenues by Region: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 124 Figure 48: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Asia Pacific: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 125 Figure 49: Small Cell Revenues in Asia Pacific: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 126 Figure 50: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Eastern Europe: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 127 Figure 51: Small Cell Revenues in Eastern Europe: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 128 Figure 52: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Latin & Central America: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 129 Figure 53: Small Cell Revenues in Latin & Central America: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 130 Figure 54: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Middle East & Africa: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 131 Figure 55: Small Cell Revenues in Middle East & Africa: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 132 Figure 56: Small Cell Unit Shipments in North America: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 133 Figure 57: Small Cell Revenues in North America: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 134 Figure 58: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Western Europe: 2012 - 2017 (Thousands of Units) 135 Figure 59: Small Cell Revenues in Western Europe: 2012 - 2017 (USD Millions) 136

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