Climatic Change
Climatic Change
Climatic Change
Climate change adaptation in Peru: The local experiences. Lima: Soluciones Prcticas, 2010.
Editors: Rebecca Clements, Mario Cosso, Jonathan Ensor Coordination: Alejandra Visscher, Francis Salas Art Editor: Carmen Javier Graphic Designer: Vctor Herrera Printed by Forma e Imagen Press, Lima Printed in Peru, February 2010 Soluciones Prcticas is the name of the Regional Office of Practical Action in Latin America.
Contents
Introduction 1. Adaptation to Climate Change: Resilience and Adaptive Capacity 1.1. Climate change and climate uncertainty 1.2. Adaptive capacity and resilience 1.3. Conclusion: Social networks, knowledge and adaptation 2. Climate Change Adaptation: The Cold and the Heat in the Andes 2.1. Problem Statement 2.2. Micro-climate Changes and Desert Encroachment 2.3. Objective 2.4. Methodology 2.5. Strategies 2.6. Results 2.7. Conclusions and Recommendations 3. Native Potatoes Defying Climate Change 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Methodology 3.3. Adaptation Strategies 3.4. Results 3.5. Conclusions and Recommendations 4. Water Management and Climate Change 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Methodology 4.3. Adaptation Strategies 4.4. Results 4.5. Conclusions and Recommendations 5. Agroforestry: A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Methodology 5.3. Adaptation Strategies 5.4. Results 5.5. Conclusions and Recommendations 7 11 11 13 20 23 23 27 28 28 32 35 41 45 45 46 50 53 54 57 57 59 64 65 66 69 69 71 73 75 78
Introduction
For over five years Practical Action has been integrating climate change into its international programme work, including a number of initiatives in Peru. This book documents the results achieved by one of the most important projects implemented by Practical Actions office in Peru on climate change adaptation. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies was implemented between 2006 and 2007 in seven areas of Peru with funding from the European Commission. Based on the premise that future climate scenarios, as published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), would create both challenges and opportunities for the poorest communities in Peru, Practical Action Latin America identified the need to establish strategies and technologies geared towards reducing the negative and capitalising on the positive impacts of climate change for these populations. Work in rural areas, particularly Andean highland regions, was prioritised for two reasons. Firstly, the Andes create unique climate conditions. Second, preliminary surveys showed that the people most affected by climate change in Peru are those who live in rural areas in conditions of extreme poverty. Typically, these people have little access to information on climate change. The outcomes of the seven projects are a key starting point from which to propose practical answers to the global challenge of climate change. Practical Action's experience in Peru is undoubtedly an important milestone for the development of alternative climate change adaptation technologies using appropriate practices. Based on the learning and outcomes of the projects, Practical Action published the Climate Change and Poverty collection, which includes eight books:
Adaptation to Climate Change
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Title Climate Change Adaptation: The Cold and Heat of the Andes Watershed Management: Adapting to Climate Change and the El Nio Phenomenon Agroforestry: A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Watershed Management and Climate Change Alpaca-raising Families Facing Climate Change Native Potatoes Defying Climate Change Information and Early Warning Systems to deal with Climate Change Conflict, Watershed Management and Climate Change
Content Synthesis of all seven experiences Adaptation experiences in drought conditions in Piura, northern Peru Adaptation experiences from coffee and cocoa plantations in the San Martn rainforest Watershed management as a climate change adaptation measure in Yungay, the central highlands Adaptation strategies for alpaca farming in Cusco, the southern highlands Adaptation of native potatoes in two highland areas of Cusco and Yungay Implementation of geographical information systems in Apurmac, Cajamarca and Piura Watershed management as an adaptation strategy in the northern coastal and highland regions of Cajamarca, Lambayeque and Piura
This book contains summaries of four of the eight publications: Climate Change Adaptation: The Cold and the Heat of the Andes; Native Potatoes Defying Climate Change; Water Management and Climate Change and Agroforestry: a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.
and is itself subjected to two rounds of expert review and one of government challenge and approval prior to publication. This approach removes controversial or spurious data and establishes a high degree of confidence in the content of the IPCCs publications. However, when relying on the IPCCs conclusions it is important to note that the approach to knowledge gathering and sharing has the potential to be conservative. Consensus building and time constraints mean that some evidence is excluded. These decisions prevent the IPCC from reporting speculative data and allow scientifically plausible statements of certainty to be made in one report -but they also mean that low probability, high-impact events are not drawn out for public consideration. The periodic release of the IPCC assessment reports is also an important limitation: the time taken by the IPCC review process means that the evidence relied on in the reports is restricted to that published well in advance of the IPCC release date, whilst the 5 to 6 year periodicity of reports mean that the most recent IPCC assessment lags behind current scientific thinking. Rather than undermining the IPCC conclusions or the importance of the process, these observations highlight the need to understand the limits that inevitably exist to even the most authoritative statements of knowledge. A 2008 review of the climate science literature illustrates the constraints of the IPCC process (Hare, 2008: 5-6): Literature published in the past two years has identified several specific cases of higher risk than that assessed in the IPCCs AR4 [Fourth Assessment Report] this literature is sufficiently important, credible and robust to justify presenting a view that adds to, and in some cases differs from, the IPCC assessment. The reader should be aware, also, that this paper presents the science of climate change from a risk perspective, in terms of which low-probability, highconsequence events merit the attention of policymakers at the highest level. For adaptation, the issue of interest is our ability to use science to predict the future. This is an obvious area for uncertainty to arise, and it does so in many forms. Fundamentally, the relationship between human activity and climate change means that assumptions must be made about the pattern of future emissions in order to generate climate predictions. Climate change predictions are mainly dependent on the greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere in the future (predominantly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide). To address this problem, projections are made for a range of reasonably foreseeable future emissions. For example, the IPCCs best estimate for the increase in global average temperature by the end of this century is 1.8 C assuming a low rate of emissions (referred to by the IPCC as the B1 scenario), whilst the highest foreseeable increases in greenhouse gases would yield a 4.0 C temperature rise (the A1F1 scenario) (Meehl et al., 2007: 749). The mechanisms involved in producing predictions also introduce uncertainty. Climate predictions are significantly different from their more established cousin, weather forecasting. Climate is fundamentally different from weather in that climate refers to long term (conventionally 20 to 30 year) average weather conditions. Weather, on the other hand, refers to short term (hourly and daily) changes such as in temperature, rainfall and wind. Weather is hard to predict as its dynamics are chaotic: small changes in the current weather
conditions can create large changes in the weather at a later time. Despite this, well established scientific understanding and measurement infrastructure allows predictions up to about 15 days ahead. Seasonal forecasting has emerged more recently than weather forecasting, and is based on an improved understanding of slowly changing phenomena that have a significant impact on the weather, such as the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Measuring this important but slowly changing phenomenon allows seasonal trends to be predicted up to around two years in advance, although confidence is greater for shorter timescales of up to around three months. Seasonal forecasts are not weather forecasts, but are more similar to climate models in that they offer a view of weather statistics, but over shorter time scales. A typical seasonal forecast may predict daily rainfall for a particular three month period. An expression of confidence is normally included: for example, a forecast may predict with 90 per cent confidence that daily rainfall will be between 150 mm and 200 mm. The confidence captures and communicates the uncertainty in the forecast, and varies significantly with geographical location: the more weather is dominated by El Nio, for example, the more accurate the seasonal forecast. Generally speaking, predictability reduces the further a location is from the equator and from the ocean, and temperature is usually easier to predict than precipitation (Harrison et al., 2007: 10). Beyond seasonal timescales, climate models are relied for providing information on long term trends. Whilst they are able to establish with high confidence that global average temperatures will continue to increase (not least due to the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere), more detailed changes, such as the impact of warming on wet and dry seasons, remain unclear. The IPCCs calibrated expressions of confidence draw attention to the inherent uncertainty in climate models, which by definition are only approximations of reality, offering an incomplete representation of the full complexity of the earth system. Uncertainty -meaning that more than one plausible future can be asserted- is unavoidable. Even for a fixed rate of future emissions there is uncertainty as to the exact impact on temperature. Whilst the highest emission scenario produces a most likely average temperature increase 4 C by the end of the 21st century, it is also possible that the increase might be as high as 6.4 C or as low as 2.4 C (Meehl et al., 2007: 749). Currently, the impact of uncertainty can be seen most clearly in the failure of climate models to provide good agreement at the regional scale, and in particular on future levels of precipitation (Christensen et al., 2007: 854).
Vulnerability reduction is an important component of adaptation to climate change (Ensor and Berger, 2009a). An assessment of vulnerability to a particular climate change hazard, and the introduction of measures that address the causes of vulnerability are legitimate strategies. Importantly, vulnerability reduction can account for uncertainty in climate predictions as long as the measures employed are not dependant for their success on a particular climate future emerging. However, investment in these strategies inevitably requires a degree of confidence in climate change predictions. A point arises when uncertainty about the
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future climate increases so much that vulnerability assessments start to lose value, eventually becoming meaningless as the real possibility of unforeseen hazards emerges. If increased rainfall is as likely to emerge as increased drought, how then should adaptation proceed? Moreover, while vulnerability reduction may be able to provide relief from the effects of climate change that are being experienced in the immediate term, how should adaptation deal with the problem of an uncertain future climate? The remainder of this chapter focuses on how this challenge can be met through building adaptive capacity, understood as the ability to change in response to climate changes, and resilience, understood as the ability to absorb or cope with the unexpected. However, adaptive capacity and resilience should not be seen as independent of vulnerability: increasing a household or communitys resilience or ability to adapt should help reduce vulnerability to the broadest possible range of possible hazards. As discussed below, adaptive capacity is also related to resilience, as building adaptive capacity is one way to support the ability to cope and recover. Adaptive capacity refers to the potential to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, describing the ability to be actively involved in processes of change. It encompasses the ability of actors within a particular human and environmental system to respond to changes, shape and create them in that system (Chapin et al., 2006: 16641). The tools that make up adaptive capacity therefore include both tangible assets, such as financial and natural resources, and less tangible elements such as the skills and opportunities to make decisions and implement changes to livelihoods or lifestyle. Both the diversity and distribution of these components of adaptive capacity are important. For Chapin et al (2006: 16641) adaptive capacity depends on the amount and diversity of social, economic, physical, and natural capital and on the social networks, institutions, and entitlements that govern how this capital is distributed and used. Similarly, Smit and Wandels review of adaptation literature suggests that the determinants of adaptive capacity include both assets, including financial, technological and information resources, and the context within which these assets are held, including infrastructure, institutional environment, political influence, and kinship networks (2006: 286). Thus both Chapin and Smit and Wandel draw attention not just to the availability of assets but also to the prevailing social and political context through which distribution takes place: networks, institutions, entitlements and political influence. Smit and Wandel (2006, 289) note that this context operates at different scales: whilst some elements of adaptive capacity are local (such as networks of family relationships), it is also important to recognise that broader and sometimes global social, economic and political forces may have the most significant influence on local vulnerabilities, such as where international free trade agreements remove supportive subsidies or price guarantees for a particular local crop. It may not be sufficient to consider only micro-scale relationships if it is powerful political and economic vested interests that determine the nature of the adaptation context (Brooks, 2003: 12). Diversity supports adaptive capacity by providing communities with options at times of stress or external change. Diversity is an attribute that offers more than simple accumulation of assets: it recognises that addressing an uncertain future requires access to a range of alternative strategies, some of which will prove
viable. However, diversity is also a key pillar of resilience. Where adaptive capacity refers to the ability to influence and respond directly to processes of change, resilience is the ability to absorb shocks or ride out changes. For resilience, diversity of social, economic, physical and natural assets improves the prospects of a socio-ecological system persisting. For example, a farm system dependent on a single crop may have low resilience to disease or climate change compared with one predicated on agricultural biodiversity. In the Peruvian context, a diversity of planting altitudes and terrains underpins the conservation of potato varieties from one year to the next, ensuring that crops survive in some locations even if they fail in others (see chapter 3). In the same way, resilience may also take the form of multiple (diverse) livelihoods. Whilst diversity underpins resilience, it is also important to recognise that the scale or degree must be appropriate and that a point can be reached at which assets or skills are spread too thinly to be of benefit. In some circumstances sufficient accumulation of assets may also support resilience: reserves of financial capital, for example, can be enough to ensure a household can cope in many circumstances. Safety nets such as insurance, when available and affordable, can also form an important component of resilience and may play a role in backstopping specialisation or compensating for a lack of diversity. Resilience and adaptive capacity are closely related, not least because both reduce the impact of uncertainty. Fostering adaptive capacity is also a mechanism for building resilience: adaptive capacity expands the options and opportunities for coping with or avoiding the impacts of climate change and thus improves a community or households prospects of survival. a. Elements of adaptive capacity Adaptation requires the accumulation of skills as well as a diversity or accumulation of assets. Principally, utilising a diversity of assets to expand the range of available livelihood or coping strategies requires the ability to explore ways of employing those assets. Thus attributes of adaptive capacity also include the ability to experiment or innovate, and the capacity to learn (Peterson, 2000: 328; Chapin, 2006: 16641). Indeed, it has been suggested that the most adaptive societies are those with actors who have the capacity to experiment, and institutions in place to support them (Patt, 2008a). For example, the involvement of NGOs and institutions in supporting farmer led research demonstrates how local adaptive capacity -and in particular the confidence to experiment- can be fostered. The provision of technical training is an important element in supporting experimentation. In Practical Actions work in Bangladesh, for example, NGO support for training in raft construction technologies has allowed local farmers to implement their own designs of floating gardens, an approach to securing food supply by growing crops in beds that float on top of rising water in regions that are prone to regular flooding (Ensor and Berger, 2009a). Local extension services can similarly be a key element in developing adaptive capacity. However, the readiness to experiment and learn is complex and influenced by human, cultural, financial and institutional factors. The ability to put a diversity of resources to productive use may be linked to educational background
and prior experience. Cultural attitudes may overlap with attitudes to financial assets to assist or inhibit experimenting and risk taking. For example, evidence suggests that there is no correlation between farmers wealth and their willingness to adopt new management practices (Phillips, 2003; Patt, 2008b). On the other hand, the take up of insurance -a method of reducing risk and thereby facilitating experimentation- has been found to be greater amongst wealthy households. Risk averse households can in fact be less likely to take insurance, often due to their lack of experience with handling financial products (Gine et al., 2007: 2). Some social norms, if narrowly defined or deeply held, can stand in the way of experimentation. However, culture may equally support or inhibit experimentation: marginalised communities have exhibited both conservatism and experimentation as a strategy to deal with environmental change (Ensor and Berger, 2009b; Patt, 2008a). The process of learning and adopting new strategies can be closely linked to the presence of social networks (defined in more detail below). Gine et al study of insurance take up amongst rural households in Andhra Pradesh (India) reveals membership of social networks to be important in determining whether a new insurance scheme is adopted, as networks provide opportunities for sharing information and advice (2007: 19). Social networks provide an opportunity for sharing experiences and as such are well placed to be effective in promoting learning, influencing changes to behaviour and stimulating collaborative innovation processes (Cross, 2004: 9). In the same way, they can help the real and perceived risk of adopting changes to livelihoods to be reduced by observing and understanding the experiences of others. Importantly, adaptive capacity also requires the ability to access and process climate information. Climate change is an emerging phenomenon with the potential to transform environments and challenge traditional expectations of seasonal patterns and climate extremes. As adaptive capacity embodies a household or communitys ability to engage with and make decisions about processes of change, some level of understanding of climate change predictions and the associated uncertainty is essential. There is also the potential for simple climate change messages to disguise the complexity that is inherent in climate modelling. The illusion of certainty and simplicity is attractive, posing a problem for the communication of climate change information and raising the prospect of uncertainty being overlooked or underappreciated when information is exchanged. However, an appreciation of complexity and uncertainty is essential if maladaptations or futile efforts at vulnerability reduction are to be avoided. Some form of institutional support is necessary for information dissemination, as climate change science and predictions will be beyond the reach of most poor communities. It is the responsibility of national governments to assimilate and communicate short and long term weather and climate change information, and to identify and facilitate the filling of gaps in knowledge where they exist. Moreover, information should be grounded in the livelihood context of those who are most vulnerable to climate change, and targeted at these groups in a form and with content that is appropriate to their needs.
b. Social networks Social networks can be of significance to adaptive capacity and resilience. Both demand a degree of collective action and depend on the particular web of relationships that determine power, resource and information distribution in any situation involving multiple stakeholders. The focus of social networks is on the nature of these relationships. This distinctive perspective has given rise to key concepts that can be used to analyse and understand the connections between different actors, including that (Wasserman and Faust, 1994: 4): Actors and their actions are interdependent rather than independent, autonomous units Relational ties (linkages) between actors are channels for transfer or flow of resources (either material or nonmaterial) The network structural environment provides opportunities for or constraints on individual action In the network view it is the relationships that tie actors that are central rather than the individuals as and of themselves. Actors are interdependent, and it is through their relationships that they create opportunities for resource and information exchange, and form the social, economic and political structures that define how they as individuals or groups may act. Network analysis reveals the nature and extent of the interconnections between actors within the network (Hawe et al., 2004), drawing attention to the power and interests that define the nature of the relationships between actors, and identifying the direct and indirect connections that channel flows of resources and information. As discussed above, a community or households social network plays a role in adaptation by supporting learning, experimenting and innovating. However, in the best case, a communitys network will also yield a productive, open and democratic relationship to the state, enabling policy to be informed by community experiences and information to reach communities (Adger, 2003: 394). For adaptation, such a relationship between the state and community or civil society networks might facilitate the two-way flow of information, upwards from household and community to improve policy understanding of the local socio-economic and environmental context, knowledge and needs, and downwards in the delivery of relevant and current science. Local social networks also offer marginalised groups an opportunity to develop adaptive strategies in the face of emerging climate risks. This use of networks is evidenced where local farmer groups become agents of change at the community level, such as where farmer-farmer networks have enabled the sharing of experiences of on-farm variety research, spreading experiences of adaptation from village to village (for an example from Sri Lanka, see Ensor and Berger, 2009a). Moreover, social networks are known to be relied on for coping during times of stress, most clearly through kinship ties but also in reciprocal arrangements between members of a network (Adger, 2003: 399). An important aspect of the process of building adaptive capacity may therefore be extending existing social networks. Depending on the context, this may be through working with local networks with a view to enhancing and sharing community based adaptation activities. Alternatively, it may be through supporting civil society organisations to pressure different levels of government into participating in new (or existing) institutions so that the need for climate information and adaptation resources can be articulated. Supporting
one approach can also yield gains for the other: for example, local social networks can simultaneously provide the foundation for influence in local governance institutions, while also being significant for local learning and knowledge sharing. Importantly, a greater degree of connectivity between communities provides increased opportunities for both activities. The ability of communities to engage with governance and decision making can also improve resilience. In this context, resilience is manifested in the opportunity for communities to tone down proposed policy development: by preventing the introduction of inappropriate policies that would damage communities or the environment on which they depend. Communities are often well placed to play this role as their knowledge of their local environment will usually exceed that of an outsider. For example, the input of local land users into natural resource management and enforcement institutions can have a stabilising effect, reducing the likelihood of unsustainable land use changes (Chapin et al., 2006: 16642; Adger, 2003: 398). The institutions, forums and relationships within social networks can also go some way towards converting climate knowledge transfer from top-down information provision to more effective, experience-based communication approaches. For example, Patt (2005) reports that farmers in Zimbabwe who attended workshops to learn about seasonal forecasts were significantly more likely to adapt farming methods in response to forecast information. By engaging farmers in the process of developing a forecast, this approach attempted to make technical information accessible to farmers and ensured that the forecasting information was relevant to all stakeholders. Establishing workshops is one approach to building networking capital to overcome the problems of communication and relevance of scientific information. Cash (2006: 4) recommends the use of boundary organisations, this is, institutions that work as an intermediary between actors, whilst Patt (2008: 64) describes the forming of partnerships between scientists and users. In each case an essential feature is the investment in social networks to build bridges between the knowledge systems and priorities of different communities. However, it is important to recognise that effective communication of weather and climate information is not guaranteed by the development of networks alone. Significant problems remain with understanding the needs of farmers and other users of climate data, generating sustained institutional support and a favourable policy environment, and, fundamentally, appropriate and effective communication of data for decision making. Understanding the needs of communities is essential. Patt (2005: 12623) reports how success in the use of forecasting in Brazil was undermined through the dissemination of one poor forecast. Elsewhere, Patt notes an important barrier to communicating abstract, long term climate change information: [i]t is hard to develop effective partnerships between climatologists and users in the absence of a problem to be solved (2008: 64). c. Power Social networks are significant in part because adaptation is mediated and interpreted through the lens of perceived opportunities (Balstad, 2008: 173): expanding poor peoples knowledge base and decision making capabilities is thus an important function of networked institutions. However, the lens of perceived opportunities can be refocused through the control of information and the motivations of stakeholders.
Peterson et al. (1997) point out how management agencies often suppress scientific dissent in order to present a unified, certain front to the outside world, thereby consolidating the political power of the agency. Such misrepresentation can easily gain traction due to the attractive simplicity of the message and may gain the active support of actors who benefit from a particular view of the future. This scenario is pertinent to climate change, where the suppression of uncertainty may clear the way for commercial, technical fix solutions. For example, a diagnosis of a drying climate may facilitate the introduction of proprietary drought resistant seed varieties, whereas an appreciation of the uncertainty associated with the prediction may instead lead to efforts to build the knowledge base of agricultural extension officers and ensure that a sustainable diversity of seed varieties is available. Access to knowledge and information sources is therefore a necessary component of adaptive capacity, but insufficient without critical engagement. Network analysis provides an important tool for this process, enabling the chain of relationships between actors to be visualised and ensuring the social, political and economic foundations of those relationships is assessed. Different aspects of social networks may prove particularly important for adaptation. Moser suggests that greater attention be paid to understanding the social dynamics that underpin (motivate, facilitate, constrain) on-the-ground adaptation strategies and actions in decision making institutions, and specifically to address the value judgements and power dynamics embedded in adaptation decisions (Moser, 2008: 188). Jennings similarly draws attention to historically embedded and implicit power relations and in particular notes the failure of indigenous or local environmental knowledge to penetrate bureaucratic ways of knowing (2008: 141). Ultimately, any local or NGO led action, however positive, can be undone by a policy environment that is outright hostile to or simply lacks a focus on marginalised or poor communities. Moser summarises her discussion of decision making as a call to stop hand waving about adaptive capacity and increase our understanding of, and our ability to use or create more effective governance structures to realise it. (Moser, 2008: 189). Networks of institutions, decision making bodies and governance structures must, then, be subject to analysis -who represents whom, with what knowledge, with what motives?- if the translation of adaptive capacity into adaptation is to be pro-poor. In reality the dynamics of knowledge creation and decision making are politicised and must be recognised as such. Techniques can be employed to support and embed these aspects of social network analysis. Coupe et al. (2005) describe Practical Actions use of farmers juries in Zimbabwe to enable smallholder farmer learning on genetically modified crops through the production of witnesses for and against the technology. The same process enabled open and informed dialogue between farmers and senior government and Zimbabwe Farmers Union (ZFU) officials, revealing major shortcomings in existing smallholder farmer policies and the deep dissatisfaction of farmers with how their interests were being represented by the ZFU. Alternatively, the use of on farm research circumvents power holders by enabling farmers, rather than outsiders, to decide on the best crop varieties for their lands.
Strengthening resilience
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Policy measures can limit or extend the reach of networks through, for example, setting the rules and norms that govern institutions, and controlling the freedom to form new relationships. However, individuals are also important and the skills held by community members play a role in defining access to and activities in a network. Education in particular can underpin decision making, interpreting information, and leadership potential. Literacy in particular can be important. NGOs can be a crucial part of a household or communitys network, bringing knowledge, ideas, experiences and resources from the outside. Significantly, NGOs are also able to stimulate the growth of local networks by building contacts and relationships between previously unconnected actors, and by building the local capacity to interact with and access different actors and networks. Opportunities, lessons and resources for adaptation are accessed through social networks, often via indirect relationships (for example, through policy influence). Whilst the ability to access and interpret climate change information is influenced by levels of education in particular, the information itself is mediated through social networks. The proportion of the currently available climate change knowledge that reaches a community will be defined by its social network, as will the complexity, accuracy and relevance of the information received. Working through networks can therefore improve access to climate knowledge in two ways: through extending the networks so that connections are built with holders of climate knowledge; or by exerting influence through the network to generate climate information that is more closely related to the lives and livelihood strategies of the community. Existing climate knowledge that is relevant but unknown to the community will (if it comes to pass) manifest itself as an (avoidable) shock: increasing the extent or relevance of climate knowledge thus reduces the possibility of these shocks.
Climate change is one of the biggest problems facing our planet today. The consequences of climate change are already being felt across the globe and there is an urgent need for drastic reductions in green house gases emissions which are a major contributing factor to global warming. Climate change affects local ecosystems, and predominantly those in which vulnerable populations live. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, prolonged drought and processes of desertification, longer periods of heavy rainfall and increased risk of flooding are just some of the impacts of climate change affecting the worlds poorest populations. In addition to a global response to climate change, local solutions to micro-climate changes are now required. Mitigation and adaptation measures which help reduce the vulnerability of poor communities to the new climatic scenarios they face are vital components of the global climate change agenda.
For over four billion years the Earth has experienced a huge number of significant changes in its climate. Although the average global temperature has only ever varied five or six degrees between one climatic period and another, these changes have led to the disappearance of entire ecosystems and mass extinctions of animal and plant life. Explanations regarding these cyclical climate alterations have evolved over time and continue to be a subject of discussion. However, confirmation from the worlds top scientists that human actions are a key contributing factor to climate change has been one of the most important evolutions in this debate. The earliest evidence of climate alterations caused by mankind was presented at the first World Climate Conference held in Geneva in 1979. In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was published, setting out the urgent need to reduce global warming and put in please measures to tackle inevitable increases in temperature. In 1997, world leaders included an appendix to the Convention, known as the Kyoto Protocol, which contains legally binding greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets. This agreement entered into force in February 2005. In Latin America, climate change is negatively impacting on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems particularly biodiversity and forests, coastal regions and urban areas where water management is a key issue. Increasing temperatures are causing glaciers to retreat and hydrological cycles to alter, reducing the productivity of crops and biodiversity of plants and animals in forest and marine areas, increasing occurrence and altering the distribution of plant animal and human plagues and diseases, disturbing ocean currents and fish stocks, causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events and loss of farm land to flooding. In Peru, climate change is characterized in terms of two key impacts: i) retreating glaciers, which have reduced by a total of 22% in the last 30 years restricting water supply in coastal and highland regions by around 7 million cubic metres of water, and ii) the El Nio phenomenon, fluctuations in surface water temperature of the Pacific Ocean which impact on atmospheric cycles leading to both heavy rains and droughts. The El Nio Phenomenon has shown high variations of intensity during the last decades, magnifying the impacts of climate change. However, research has at present failed to identify whether climate change is responsible for changes to the magnitude or frequency of the El Nio Phenomenon. The principal climactic hazards in Peru are both man-made and natural. Natural hazard (including desertification) are the result of changing weather conditions droughts, heavy rainfall, frosts and hailstorms and hailstones and of human activities, such as the poor management of natural resources and large contaminating industries, in particular mining activities over recent years (see figure 1).
Figure 1. Map of climatic hazards, biodiversity, desert encroachment and poverty in Peru
TUMBES LORETO
LA LIBERTAD
JUNN LIMA
MADRE DE DIOS
HUANCAVELICA
PUNO
TACNA
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In addition to environmental hazards, Peru is also a socially vulnerable country. A large proportion of the population lives in conditions of poverty and find their livelihoods severely affected by climate change (especially farmers), the majority of towns are situated in arid areas and are thus prone to water shortages and adaptive capacity to extreme phenomena is very low because people neither have the information nor the resources to do so. Risks associated with the hazards and vulnerabilities described above increase in fragile ecosystems with a limited resistance to climate change, and particularly in areas where local populations have low capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation (see figure 2). Figure 2. Variability and climate change in the tropical Andean mountain ecosystems of Peru. The local problem
Inappropriate human activities 1. Drainage of wetlands (marches, springs, fountains, streams) 2. Over-grazing 3. Burning grassland 4. Deforestation to expand the agricultural frontier 5. Mining (air, water and soil pollution) Unfavourable socio-economic conditions 1. Weak organisation 2. Sub-division of property Global context
Local context
Local population
Deforestation processes 1. Degradation of physical components (water, soil, air) 2. Degradation of bioagrodiversity
Vulnerability Increased due to environment degradation and climate change (stronger impact of disasters)
Environmental degradation 1. Appearance of new and worse plagues and diseases 2. Water use conflicts 3. More food insecurity 4. Poor management due to lack of information
Micro climate changes Recurrent and prolonged floods Heavy rainfall for short periods Intensive frost and hailstones
Climate change 1. Retreating glaciers 2. More intensive and unpredictable natural phenomena 3. Stronger and more frequent El Nio (mega-events)
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Changes in local weather conditions are considered a working circumstance rather than a problem. In Peru, the climate possesses unique characteristics defined by the Andes mountain range, a large tropical mountainous ecosystem in which extreme meteorological events like droughts, snowstorms and freezing weather conditions occur regularly and persistently. The relationship between Andean cultures and climate variability is not new. For over 5,000 years, communities living in the Andes have demonstrated an ability to adapt to the changing environment around them. Nevertheless, these communities must now face up to a new challenge: man-made climate change. Practical Action believes that Andean people are well placed to adapt to this challenge given that over thousands of years they have incorporated prevention and adaptation techniques into traditional social organisation and technology practices in response to observed climate phenomena. Despite the passage of time, Andean communities still take note of changes in the climate using traditional indicators (see boxes 1 and 2).
In Peru, the process of raising public awareness regarding the dangers of climate change officially began in 1993, with the creation of the National Climate Change Commission (known by its initials in Spanish as CNCC). The key purpose of the CNCC is to coordinate the nationwide application and regulation of international agreements on climate change. In 2001, the CNCC prepared the first national communication regarding climate change and established the national climate change strategy, which considers the state of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation actions and proposes climate change adaptation initiatives. At a regional level, strategies are geared towards investigating levels of vulnerability to climate change and incorporating adaptation measures into regional policies and development plans. Regional governments are also encouraged to raise the awareness of their populations regarding the risks and global causes of climate change.
Desert encroachment is caused by a number of farming practices, such as the expansion of agricultural frontiers (farmlands) in areas unsuitable for farming, over-grazing, drainage of wetlands, burning grassland and deforestation. Combined with global climate change, these practices are the cause of imminent changes in the climate at a local level. Testimonies from campesinos (peasant farmers) substantiate that climate variability in Andean micro-basins has been occurring since the seventies and that the difference between cold and hot temperatures has never been as great as at present. This has led to the coining of an expression in Quechua2 chirimanta ruphaymanta: the cold and heat of the Andes. These changes in climate could have been predicted but due to a lack of awareness, concern and relevant studies, they were detected too late when global climate change and alterations in local ecosystems had already occurred. Furthermore, while the scientific community was concentrating on solving global problems, local populations were suffering the local effects (see box 2).
2.3. Objective
In recognition of the local dimensions of climate change in Peru, Practical Actions project Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies was designed to propose and test technology, information, social organisation and conflict management strategies for climate change adaptation in tropical mountainous ecosystems, particularly focussed on Andean highland populations.
2.4. Methodology
Adaptation to Climate Change
The work took place in seven locations within three mountainous ecosystems in Peru: i) the inter-Andean valleys (Cajamarca, ncash, Apurmac and Cusco); ii) the western slopes (Piura and Lambayeque), and; iii) the eastern slopes (San Martn). Figure 3 shows the project locations and figure 4 shows a cross-section of the distribution of the working areas.
Quechua is a native South American language spoken extensively throughout rural populations in Peru.
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TUMBES LORETO
LA LIBERTAD
1. Rural populations and their climate change adaptation. Capacity-building. Upper reaches of the Piura river, Yapatera sub-basin
LIMA
JUNN
MADRE DE DIOS
2. Management of con icts over natural resources in a climate change scenario. Jequetepeque river basin 3. Agro-forestry. Climate change adaptation strategy. Sisa river basin, middle of the Huallaga river watershed 4. Rural communities and their climate change adaptation. Capacity-building to reduce vulnerability in the upper reaches of the Santa river, Santo Toribio sub-basin 5. Proposals of information and early warning systems as a local climate change adaptation strategy. Apurmac 6. Climate change adaptation technologies for native potato crops in high mountain ecosystems 7. Alpaca-raising families and climate change adaptation. Capacity-building. Upper reaches of the Vilcanota river, Salcca micro-basin
AREQUIPA HUANCAVELICA
PUNO
MOQUEGUA TACNA
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N V I A R U P E
S Y S T E M
Apurmac San Ignacio, Cajamarca Micro watershed of Salcca, high basin of the Vilcanota river in Cusco Yungay, ncash
A N D E A N
Western coast
Andeans valleys
Andean plateau
Eastern slope
Rainfall above 1000 mm/year
E AT W
SO
FOOTHILLS THERMAL INVERSION ZONE
IL GY
EN
ER
EN
W AT E SO R IL
FO
ER G Y
FO
OD
E MIN
LS RA
IN E
FOOTHILLS
RA
LS
COAST or CHALA
Humboldt current
FOREST or OMAGUA
Rupa-rupa or evergreen seasonal forest Omagua or lower montane wet forest
The projects proposed the development of appropriate technologies for climate change adaptation in seven areas within the tropical Andes mountain ecosystems. Although these are unique, they share characteristics with other mountainous ecosystems around the globe. Consequently, the results and recommendations from these projects can be taken into consideration as a reference for interventions in neighbouring Andean countries (Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and Bolivia) as well as other mountainous countries (specifically in Meso-America, Africa and Asia). The majority of rural communities involved in the project are members of Andean cultures, the exceptions being the agroforestry project with settlers in San Martn and the water management project with mestizos (people of European and native Peruvian descent) in Piura. Despite possessing great cultural and technological traditions, these populations have undergone cultural erosion processes over the centuries. Given these circumstances, the methodological approach to the project incorporated both scientific information and local knowledge (see figure 5). Figure 5. Methodological approach
Scientific information
Appropriate technologies
Traditional technologies
Local know-how
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The work was carried out according to the methodology shown in figure 5. The following were the most important stages: Identification of the problem and preparation of work proposals Implementation of projects in partnership with local and regional networks and institutions Analysis and documentation of results, including expert discussions Production of qualitative and graphic models
2.5. Strategies
The global response to climate change consists of mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the causes of climate change and related phenomena and modify the livelihoods and means of sustenance of communities that are vulnerable to climate change. Mitigation activities are carried out mainly by countries in the northern hemisphere that have historically produced the most greenhouse gases (more than 90%), whereas countries in the southern hemisphere have contributed less than 10%. These activities have received much greater priority in global climate change negotiations to date, to the detriment of developing countries that are already suffering from the impacts of climate change and have fewer resources with which to develop adequate adaptation strategies. The national climate change adaptation strategy proposed by the National Environment Council (known by its initials in Spanish, CONAM)3 proposes incorporating adaptation into regional and state policies and development plans. According to this strategy, the state is responsible for protecting its citizens against the impacts of climate change and for establishing new laws regarding the environment. The national strategy includes the application of risk management strategies such as the improvement of climate observation systems, the drafting of a national research agenda for technological development and innovation, development of estimates and climate change scenarios. The end goal of these practices is to improve the countrys management of resources and greenhouse gases without compromising its sustainable development progress. In Peru, Government programmes are implemented in accordance with political divisions and income-based budgets in each region (including factors like productivity). This often means that the people most in need of support miss out. For the Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies project, Practical Action prioritised locally based approaches and developed specific measures targeted at reducing the vulnerability of the poorest populations. One of the key benefits of community-based climate change adaptation actions is that knowledge and technologies can be transferred and adapted to the actual requirements of a particular population. The people most vulnerable to climate change can be identified and risks prioritized, based on the severity of potential impacts (see box 3).
During the analysis and documentation of the projects, the Environment Ministry was created. It is anticipated that the National Climate Change Strategy will be revised in the near future. However, it is too soon to speculate what the new policies will be.
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Following the framework described in chapter 1, three basic concepts were incorporated into the design and implementation of Practical Actions climate change adaptation strategy: 1. Strengthening resilience through diversity management: The variety of climates, soils, biology and culture are some of the most important characteristics of Peruvian ecosystems. Embracing this diversity is a fundamental trait of development and planning efforts in Peru and entails a broach range of alternative approaches 2. Reducing vulnerability: In view of the uncertainty created by climate change in Peru, reducing the potential risks of droughts, floods, desert encroachment, food insecurity and conflicts over the use of natural resources, by means of planned, concerted, participatory and comprehensive processes is an essential tool to reduce vulnerability (see box 4) 3. Building adaptive capacity: Developing the capacities of Andean highland communities with respect to scientific and traditional climatic change indicators, technologies and social organisation is fundamental to successful climate change adaptation initiatives Figure 6. Proposed local climate change adaptation strategy
Strengthening resilience Vulnerability reduction Building adaptive capacity Climate change adaptation
Santo Toribio sub-basin, middle of the Santa watershed (Ancash) Salcca subbasin, upper reaches of the Vilcanota (Cusco) Native potatoes Salcca subbasin, upper reaches of the Vilcanota (Cusco) Alpacas
Farming Know-how Organisation Research Conservation Training Climate Water Pastures Alpacas Organisation
2.6. Results
The results were analyzed according to six criteria that were found to be significant across the different project sites: vulnerability, scenarios, local knowledge, adaptation measures, policies and a national agenda for rural areas. a) Vulnerability In the areas of work, populations are highly vulnerable due to social (poverty, exclusion etc.) and environmental factors (desertification, frosts, glacial retreat etc.). More frequent and extreme weather events and constant climate variability leaves people and their livelihoods highly exposed to climate risks and hazards. This has been made evident by events such as the El Nio phenomenon that severely affected a large percentage of the rural population in Peru. b) Scenarios Climate change scenarios predict an increase in the global average temperature. Based on this information, adaptation strategies were developed to help the population prepare for and adequately deal with extreme weather phenomena in the following stages: disaster preparation, actions during the event and the mitigation of its impacts once the event has concluded. Social organisation is a key factor to the success of disaster planning, prevention and response. c) Local knowledge Local knowledge based on folklore, myths and the history of Andean highland people is extremely valuable to the process of observing, recording and predicting changes in the local climate. However traditional knowhow, which had been an adaptation instrument for centuries, has gone through a severe process of erosion during recent decades, resulting in a gradual loss of traditions, a decrease in the use of native languages, social exclusion and discrimination. Nevertheless, local knowledge can still contribute significantly to the risk management efforts. The added benefit of this approach is that the cultural heritage of the people involved is promoted and maintained.
d) Adaptation measures Appropriate technologies are solutions that not necessarily include expensive modern techniques. Climate change adaptation in tropical Andean ecosystems is principally a question of adapting affordable and replicable technologies to local uses. Often these technologies are already available locally and require only slight adaptations to maximise their effectiveness. Box 5. The climate is changing. (IV)
The Practical Action technicians have taught us a lot during the field days held in Chapichumo, here in the community and also in Palccoyo. There was participation in workshops on risks of hailstones and frost and my other mates participated in preparing the land, preparing biol, controlling plagues; that is how we learnt and we liked those subjects. Now we are organising ourselves to gather stubble to protect ourselves from hailstones. The best protection against hailstones and frost is to do it in an organised manner; when you try to defend yourself on your own it is not very effective; when we all protect ourselves it is better. Eusebio Len Umpiri, age 50 (Cusco)
It is important to clarify the relationship between diversity and risk reduction as part of the climate change adaptation proposals: with more diversity, there is less risk. Table 3 shows the adaptation measures applied in all seven project areas. The climate change adaptation model (see figure 7) is the result of the analysis of seven projects and over two years work in seven areas of the tropical mountainous ecosystem in the Peruvian Andes. The model identifies adaptation measures that could be applicable in mountainous Andean ecosystems in the region (Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia) as well as in other mountainous ecosystems of the world, including Meso-America, Ethiopia, Nepal, India, China and Tibet, amongst others. e) Policies There are two legal frameworks relating to climate change in Peru: i) the National Climate Change Strategy and ii) a Law specifying the environmental obligations and duties of local and regional governments (see table 4). Regional climate change strategies dictate that regional governments should understand the level of vulnerability to climate change in their region and incorporate adaptation measures into policies and developments plans. Likewise regional governments should promote awareness amongst the population regarding the risks associated with climate change. f) A national agenda for rural areas Through working specifically with rural communities over the two years of this project, it is clear that a national agenda with a specific focus on rural areas is urgently required. This agenda should place an emphasis on themes of particular relevance to rural areas, such as sustainable natural resource management, watershed management, disaster management and food security.
Adaptation measures Water: irrigation and optimization Water storage and conveyance facilities Soil: management and conservation Alternative crops Pastures: efficient development of harvest waste Forests: management and forestry production Adequate management of water-related conflicts Development of an ethno-dynamic information system based on bio-indicators Through management committees and local governments, the local climate change adaptation strategy was established, which was validated with the approval of municipal authorities and development boards. Measures were prioritized and included in the participatory budget and finally, the strategy was incorporated into the concerted development plan Organisational structures already exist, such as the association of ecological producers, the association of livestock-raisers and the irrigation commission Awareness-raising and involvement of authorities and the population through workshops; subsequently, institutional links were established between local governments, grassroots organisations, local development boards, peasant patrols and Cepeser. At a regional level, an agreement was signed between the Piura regional government and Senamhi (peruvian meteorological system)for the integration of bio-meteorological stations in the Piura river early warning system Community, formation of peasant promoters Capacity-building for poor rural populations Production: forest enhancement, pruning, live and dead barriers, recycling, organic production Post-harvest: gathering points Cocoa: insertion in the domestic and international markets Coffee: insertion in the international market Organisation of cocoa and coffee farmers Incorporation of individual farmers in associations and registration in public registries, forming committees acknowledged by local governments Coordination between committees and associations with local governments was achieved Training was provided on participatory budgets, accountability, local management and economic development Development of technical and organisational skills of poor rural people
Technologies
Watershed management -
Organisation
Watershed management
Organisation
Capacitybuilding
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Location
Appropriate technologies
Adaptation measures Technologies: water and farming Efficient irrigation Plague management Crop rotation Organisation established in the Cordillera Negra despite the lack of water Weak organisation in the Cordillera Blanca due to the inadequate water supply After the process and the projects experiences a climate change adaptation plan was proposed and incorporated into the development plans Capacity-building for rural communities Training on climatic variability, water management and farming practices Postgraduate climate change proposal Conservation of the biodiversity of native potatoes Determine the tolerance to abiotic factors of native potato crops Through the climate change adaptation strategy, overall plague management Water: resource optimization, more availability, irrigation systems Pastures: Improvement, conservation and recovery Alpacas: health management, reproductive management Climate: monitoring climatic variability and climate change Local knowledge of the climate and early warning systems Training on the subject for local authorities Strengthening of producers organisations, shepherds, peasant communities, communal enterprises and communal herds Participatory rural surveys were conducted Creation of community risk management committees Capacity-building for alpaca-raising families to reduce their vulnerability to climatic hazards Adequate management of water-related conflicts Capacity-building for poor rural producers and their organisations, for adequate conflictmanagement purposes
Watershed management
Organisation
Capacitybuilding Technology
Watershed management
Organisation
Watershed management