Computer Climate Models Are The Heart of The Problem of Global Warming Predictions. by Dr. Timothy Ball
Computer Climate Models Are The Heart of The Problem of Global Warming Predictions. by Dr. Timothy Ball
Computer Climate Models Are The Heart of The Problem of Global Warming Predictions. by Dr. Timothy Ball
Introduction
What do the IPCC reports actually say about global warming? What
is the basis for their position? All predictions of global warming are
based on computer climate models. The major models in question
are the ones used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) to produce their Reports. The most recent, the Fourth
Assessment Report (AR4) uses and averages output from 18
computer models. These Reports are the source for policy on climate
change used by world governments. The Reports are released in two
parts. The first release and the one used for policy by governments
was the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) released in April 2007.
The Technical Report (“The Physical Science Basis”) produced by
Working Group I was released in November 2007. It is essential to
read because it contains more, but not all, of the severe limitations in
climate research including the data, the mechanisms and the
computer models.
IPCC models are sole the source of predictions about future climates
except they don’t call them predictions. They become predictions
through the media and in the public mind. IPCC reports have advised
about their definition from the start. The First Assessment Report
(Climate Change 1992) "Scenarios are not predictions of the future
and should not be used as such." While the Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios says; "Scenarios are images of the future or
alternative futures. They are neither predictions nor forecasts.
Climate-Change 2001 continues the warnings; "The possibility that
any single in emissions path will occur as described in this scenario is
highly uncertain." In the same Report they say, "No judgment is
offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and
they are not assigned probabilities of recurrence, neither must they
be interpreted as policy recommendations." This is reference to the
range of scenarios they produce using different future possible
economic conditions.
The very large area labeled “No Data” covers most of the Arctic
Basin an area of approximately 14,250,000 sq.km (5,500,000) square
miles).
Claims the model are improved because they have increased the
number of layers are meaningless because it doesn’t alter the lack of
data at any level.
The atmosphere and the oceans are fluids and as such are governed
by non-linear rather than linear equations. These equations have
unpredictability similar to randomness and known as chaos. These
problems are well known outside of climate science and were
specifically acknowledged in the IPCC Third Assessment Report
(TAR), “In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that
we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and
therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not
possible.” (TAR, p.774.)
Predictions?
12 / 2008