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Individually and collectively, and in combination with the effects of other human activities, these
changes pose risks for a wide range of human and environmental systems, including freshwater
resources, the coastal environment, ecosystems, agriculture, fisheries, human health, and national
security, among others. However, as noted in Chapter 7, precise projections are not easy to provide.
Despite a broad range of research focusing on policy making and evaluation in general, policy-
oriented research focused specifically on climate change and its interaction with natural and social
systems has been relatively limited. LCA of corn-based ethanol and other liquid fuels derived from
plant materials (e.g., Davis et al., 2009; Kim et al., 2009; Robertson et al., 2008; Tilman et al., 2009)
illustrate both the value of the method and some of the complexities in applying it. In areas where
water is stored for part of the year in snowpack, reductions in snowpack and earlier snowmelt are
expected to increase the risk of water limitations and drought. Climate model projections indicate
that the area affected by drought and the number of annual dry days are likely to increase in the
decades ahead. Scientists are working to improve how ice dynamics can be resolved in models.
Increasing the efficiency of power generation (for example, by adding combined-cycle technology to
natural gas-fueled plants) can also contribute to lower carbon emissions per unit of energy produced.
Decomposition and respiration of CO 2 back to the atmosphere also increase as temperatures warm.
It also helps decision makers and other stakeholders better understand and trust the science being
produced. He has over 25 years of experience in a broad range of environmental science and policy
issues. That is, unless words are followed bytough decisions and practical action -both at national
and international levels. Changes in heavy precipitation, runoff, and stream flow can also be
expected to have an impact on a diverse set of water quality variables. Successful application of
seasonal climate forecasting tends to follow a systems approach where forecasts are contextualized
to the decision situation and embedded within an array of other information relevant for risk
management. Moreover, there are important synergies among the seven themes, and they are not
completely independent. Their coverage is extensive in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere but
relatively sparse in the tropics and the. Cognitive studies have established that humans have
difficulty in processing probabilistic information, relying instead on cogni-. Research efforts in this
area to date have focused on issues of equity, fairness, vulnerability, and human dignity, and have
identified conditions that are critical to maintaining or restoring human security: effective
governance systems, healthy and resilient ecosystems, comprehensive and sustained disaster risk-
management efforts, empowerment of individuals and local institutions, and supportive values. A
substantial body of research backs up the technical potential for large energy efficiency
improvements. Regional climate models, which are discussed later in this chapter, are a key tool in
this area of research. Space-based proposals involve placing satellites with reflective surfaces in
space. Likewise, this report does not cover all scientific topics of interest in climate change research,
only those of most immediate interest to decision makers. Commonly discussed strategies for
limiting climate change (see Figure 4.2 ) include reducing energy consumption, for instance by
improving energy efficiency or by reducing demand for energy-intensive goods and services;
reducing emissions of GHGs from energy production and use, industrial processes, agriculture, or
other human activities; capturing CO 2 from power plants and industrial processes, or directly from
the atmosphere, and sequestering it in geological formations; and increasing CO 2. Climate change
adaptation is not just a set of actions. Compelling evidence has been assembled indicating that rapid
freshwater discharges at the end of the last ice age caused abrupt ocean circulation changes, which
in turn led to significant impacts on regional climate. Continued research on the mechanisms and
manifesta-mechanisms and manifestations of natural climate variability in the atmosphere and oceans
on a wide range of space and time scales, including events in the distant past, can be expected to
yield, can be expected to yield additional progress. For example, intact, extensive, and connected
ecosystems have better prospects for resilience than do degraded ecosystems. Ecosystems that are
generally healthy, with high (or intact) species diversity, are better able to naturally adapt to changes
in their environment. Enhanced capacity for linking models of physical change in the climate system
to species response models would help meet these challenges. These approaches could promote the
adaptive capacity of species that are under significant stress. The first two provide vertically
integrated measures of the warming of the troposphere in response to radiative heating.
Ice in the world’s glaciers and ice sheets contributes directly to sea level rise through melt or the
flow of ice into the sea. Register for a free account to start saving and receiving special member only
perks. Surface measurements were obtained with broadband pyranometers and spectral radiometers,
while the TOA measurements were obtained from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System
(CERES) radiation budget instruments on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
satellite. While research on indicators has been a focus of attention for several decades (Dietz et al.,
2009c; Orians and Policansky, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; York, 2009), progress is needed to
improve integration of physical indicators with emerging indicators of ecosystem health and human
well-being (NRC, 2005c). Second, measurements of spectrally resolved imaginary refractive indices
are needed to determine absorbing properties. The underlying model is simple enough to be used in
real time by policy makers to ask “what if” questions that can inform negotiations. Click here to buy
this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available. It is not yet clear how these interactions
will play out and what the net effect will be. This is generally done with CTMs that solve the
continuity equation for the species of interest using information on sources, transport, chemical
processes, and deposition. These scenarios have increased in complexity over time, and the most
recent scenario development efforts include sophisticated models of energy production and use,
economic activity, and the possible influence of different climate policy actions on future emissions.
Three basic approaches to uncertainty analysis have been employed by the integrated assessment
community: sensitivity analysis, stochastic simulation, and sequential decision making under
uncertainty (DOE, 2009b; Weyant, 2009). However, despite several decades of exposure to
information about climate change, such understanding is still widely lacking. However, this paradigm
is not working for a number of reasons. For example, the primary objectives of a management plan
could focus on individual species or the ecosystem a as a whole. Temperature increases will also
increase periods of peak energy demands and, in conjunction with other climate changes, are
expected to worsen urban air pollution. Based on a combination of ecosystem models and
observations, it has been estimated that for the period 2000 to 2008, land ecosystems removed
roughly one-third of the CO 2 emitted by human activities. Furthermore, there is a mismatch
between aerosol activation and cloud formation in most climate models because cloud formation
relies on a saturation adjustment scheme whereas aerosol activation relies on a subgrid-scale vertical
velocity. As described in Chapter 12, urban design presents additional opportunities for limiting
climate change. Similar sensitivities to longer time-scale variations in climate have been documented
in a wide range of fish species around the globe. The last section of the chapter outlines key research
needs in all of these areas. While interagency collaborations are sometimes valuable, a robust,
effective program of Earth observations from space requires specific responsibilities to be clearly
assigned to each agency and adequate resources provided to meet these responsibilities.”. Other
species fished by humans rely on shelled plankton as their primary food source, and projected
declines in these plankton species could have major impacts on fished species higher in the food
chain. The seven integrative, crosscutting research themes described in this chapter are critical
elements of a climate research endeavor that seeks to both improve understanding and to provide
input to and support for climate-related actions and decisions, and these themes would form a
powerful foundation for an expanded climate change research enterprise. However, by midcentury
and especially at the end of the century, higher emissions scenarios (e.g., scenarios with continued
growth in global GHG emissions) lead to much warmer temperatures than lower emissions scenarios.
Improved data collection, data analysis, and linkages with water managers are also critical. This is
the time period with the greatest change in well-mixed greenhouse gases as well as the most
complete observational datasets. Prior to joining the City, Renee was a planning consultant working
in multiple cities across Canada and the United States. Similar difficulties could be in store for
“smart meters,” which are promoted as devices that will allow households to manage energy use to
save money and reduce emissions, but which are often designed mainly for the information needs of
utility companies rather than consumers. People commonly have difficulty making good sense and
use of information that is probabilistic and uncertain. In the short term, a high priority for science
and technology advances is to create.
Finally, the U.S. military is a major consumer of fossil fuels and could potentially play a major role in
reducing U.S. GHG emissions. While scientific research alone cannot determine what actions should
be taken in response to climate change, it can inform, assist, and support those who must make these
important decisions. Improving understanding of natural variability patterns, and determining how
they might change with increasing GHG emissions and global temperatures, is an important area of
active research (see the end of this section and Chapter 6 ). Some areas of the coast and some
industries and populations are more vulnerable, and thus more likely to suffer harm, than others. It
draws on several past analyses and assessments of research gaps and needs (NRC, 1992a, 1997a,
2001, 2002b, 2005a, 2009g, 2009k). Some key research needs, which are explored in further detail
in Chapter 13, include the following. Regular calibrations are needed, for example, using the Sun,
Moon, known land scenes, or on-orbit sources or detectors. Such efforts, often referred to as
geoengineering approaches, encompass two very different categories of approaches: carbon dioxide
removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM). Some specific
research needs, discussed in further detail in Chapter 14, include the following. The overall potential
to limit climate change through management of land and ocean ecosystems has not been thoroughly
evaluated, however. For example, sustaining particular ecosystem services in a particular location
may require plant or animal species with specific functional traits. The proportion of precipitation
that falls as rain rather than snow has increased across the western United States and Arctic sea ice
has been reduced significantly. Snow is expected to melt even earlier under projections of future
climate change, resulting in streams that have reduced flow and higher temperatures in late summer.
However, as with projections of agricultural changes, these models typically exclude potentially
important factors such as pests, diseases, and water availability, making the results somewhat
uncertain. Because the rate of evaporation and the ability of air to hold water vapor both increase as
the climate system warms, a small initial warming will increase the amount of water vapor in the air,
reinforcing the initial warming—a positive feedback loop. Studies in psychology, sociology, and
anthropology, on the other hand, focus on the social influences on preferences but often fail to
account for economic processes. Increasing temperatures may increase or shift the ranges of disease
vectors (and their associated pathogens), including mosquitoes (malaria, dengue fever, West Nile
virus, Saint Louis encephalitis virus), ticks (Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Lyme disease, and
encephalitis), and rodents (hantavirus and leptospirosis). Detailed analyses of ocean sediments, ice
cores, geologic landforms, and other data show that for at least the past 800,000 years, and probably
the past several million years, the Earth has gone through long periods when temperatures were
much colder than today and thick blankets of ice covered much of the Northern Hemisphere
(including the areas currently occupied by the cities of Chicago, New York, and Seattle). Specific
research needs, which are explained in more detail in Chapter 7, include the following. LCA of corn-
based ethanol and other liquid fuels derived from plant materials (e.g., Davis et al., 2009; Kim et al.,
2009; Robertson et al., 2008; Tilman et al., 2009) illustrate both the value of the method and some of
the complexities in applying it. Research is also needed on behavioral and institutional barriers to
adoption of new energy technologies. Climate change is expected to increase heavy rainfalls and
floods, droughts, and fires in many parts of the world and could lead to changing storm patterns.
Similar difficulties could be in store for “smart meters,” which are promoted as devices that will
allow households to manage energy use to save money and reduce emissions, but which are often
designed mainly for the information needs of utility companies rather than consumers. This situation
is equally true for the tropospheric temperature record constructed from observations made by
Microwave Sounding Units (NRC, 2000). The extent to which these changes result in reduced
emissions will depend on consumer preferences regarding vehicle weight and power. Climate change
adaptation is not just a set of actions. For example, U.S. households could significantly reduce their
GHG emissions (and save money) by adopting more energy-efficient driving behaviors and by
properly maintaining automobiles and home heating and cooling systems (Dietz et al., 2009b).
Research on behavioral change suggests that a good portion of this potential could actually be
achieved, but further analysis is needed to develop and assess specific strategies, approaches, and
incentives. Each group uses slightly different analysis techniques and data sources, yet the
temperature estimates published by these groups are highly consistent with one another.
Nevertheless, some conclusions and projections are robust. A wide range of models, tools, and
approaches, from quantitative numerical models and analytic techniques to frameworks and processes
that engage interdisciplinary research teams and stakeholders, are needed to simulate and assess
these interactions.