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    Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis: Rpra 1. The Logic of Certainty

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    This document provides an overview of engineering risk analysis techniques including: 1. Event definition and the use of Venn diagrams and indicator variables to represent events. 2. Calculating probabilities of events using unions, intersections, and reliability block diagrams for series, parallel and k-out-of-n systems. 3. Fault tree analysis techniques including minimal cut sets, disjunctive normal form, and sum-of-products form to calculate the probability of a top event.

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    Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis: Rpra 1. The Logic of Certainty

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    mihai37
    35 views26 pages
    This document provides an overview of engineering risk analysis techniques including: 1. Event definition and the use of Venn diagrams and indicator variables to represent events. 2. Calculating probabilities of events using unions, intersections, and reliability block diagrams for series, parallel and k-out-of-n systems. 3. Fault tree analysis techniques including minimal cut sets, disjunctive normal form, and sum-of-products form to calculate the probability of a top event.

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    This document provides an overview of engineering risk analysis techniques including: 1. Event definition and the use of Venn diagrams and indicator variables to represent events. 2. Calculating probabilities of events using unions, intersections, and reliability block diagrams for series, parallel and k-out-of-n systems. 3. Fault tree analysis techniques including minimal cut sets, disjunctive normal form, and sum-of-products form to calculate the probability of a top event.

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    35 views26 pages

    Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis: Rpra 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Uploaded by

    mihai37
    This document provides an overview of engineering risk analysis techniques including: 1. Event definition and the use of Venn diagrams and indicator variables to represent events. 2. Calculating probabilities of events using unions, intersections, and reliability block diagrams for series, parallel and k-out-of-n systems. 3. Fault tree analysis techniques including minimal cut sets, disjunctive normal form, and sum-of-products form to calculate the probability of a top event.

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    of 26

    Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis

    1.155, 2.943, 3.577, 6.938, 10.816, 13.621, 16.862, 22.82 ESD.72J, ESD.721

    RPRA 1.

    The Logic of Certainty

    George E. Apostolakis Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Spring 2007

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Event Definition
    Event: A statement that can be true or false. It may rain tonight is not an event. According to our current state of knowledge, we may say that an event E is TRUE, FALSE, or POSSIBLE (UNCERTAIN). Eventually, E will be either TRUE or FALSE.
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 2

    True

    Event

    False

    Possible

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Venn Diagrams
    Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Each elementary outcome is represented by a sample point. Examples: Die {1,2,3,4,5,6} Failure Time {0, }

    A collection of sample points is an event.


    S

    Venn Diagram

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Indicator Variables
    1,If Xj = 0,
    Important Note: Xk = X, k: 1, 2,
    If E
    j

    is T

    is F

    S
    ___

    Venn Diagram

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Union (OR operation)

    A B = C
    X C = 1 (1 X A )(1 X B )
    X
    C

    C
    A B

    A
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    B
    6

    Intersection (AND operation)

    A B = C

    XC = X AX B
    XC X j
    C

    Mutually Exclusive Events:

    A B =
    7

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Simple Systems
    Reliability Block Diagram for the Series System
    1 .... N

    System Failure

    failure: X = 1

    (1 X j ) C X j
    1 1

    success :
    1 ... N

    Y = Yj
    1

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Reliability Block Diagram for the Parallel System


    1

    X = X j
    1

    Y = CYj
    1
    TOP

    i+1

    i+1

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Event-Tree Analysis

    IE

    BARRIER 1

    BARRIER 2 1 (OK)

    SUCCESS 2 (R1) FAILURE 3 (R2)

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    10

    Fault-Tree Analysis
    Reliability Block Diagram for the 2-out-of-3 System

    2/3

    C
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 11

    X T = 1 (1 Y1 )(1 Y2 ) = 1 (1 X A X B X C ){1 [1 (1 Z1 )(1 Z 2 )(1 Z 3 )]} = 1 (1 X A X B X C ){1 [1 (1 X A X B )(1 X B X C )(1 X C X A )]}

    Expanding and using Xk = X we get

    X T = 1 (1 X A X B )(1 X B X C )(1 X C X A )
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 12

    Cut sets and minimal cut sets

    CUT SET: Any set of events (failures of components and human actions) that cause system failure.

    MINIMAL CUT SET: A cut set that does not contain another cut set as a subset.

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    13

    New fault tree:


    S y s te m F a ilu r e

    Minimal cut sets:

    M 1 = X A X B,
    3 1

    M2 = X B XC ,, M3 = XC X A

    X T = C M j 1 (1 M 1 ) (1 M 2 ) (1 M 3 ) = = 1 (1 X A X B )(1 X B X C )(1 X C X A)
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 14

    XT = (X1, X2,Xn) (X)


    (X) is the structure or switching function. It maps an n-dimensional vector of 0s and 1s onto 0 or 1. Disjunctive Normal Form:

    XT = 1 (1 M i ) C M i
    1 1
    Sum-of-Products Form:

    XT = Mi
    i =1

    N 1 N

    i =1 j =i +1

    M i M j + ... + (1) M i
    i =1
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 15

    N +1 N

    For the 2-out-of-3 System:


    XT=1-(1-XAXB) (1-XBXC) (1-XCXA) XT = (M1+M2+M3) - (M1M2+M2M3+M3M1) + M1M2M3 But, M1M2 = XAXB2XC = XAXBXC Therefore, the sum-of-products expression is: XT = (XAXB+XBXC+XCXA) - 2XAXBXC
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 16

    The Bridge Network


    A
    1 5 2 4 3 B

    {X1X2}, {X3X4}, {X2X3X5}, {X1X4X5} Disjunctive Normal Form: XT=1-(1-X1X2)(1-X3X4)(1-X2X3X5)(1-X1X4X5) Sum-of-Products Form: XT = X1X2+ X3X4+ X2X3X5+ X1X4X5- X1X2 X3X4- X1X2X3X5- X1X2X4X5 -X2X3X4X5 - X1X3X4X5 + 2X1X2X3X4X5
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 17

    Causes of Failure
    1. 2. 3. Primary failure ("hardware" failure) Secondary failure (external, environmental) "Command" failure (no input; no power)
    N o O u tp u t fro m C om ponent

    P r im a r y F a ilu r e

    S e c o n d a ry F a ilu r e

    C om m and F a ilu r e

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    18

    Reliability Block Diagram for the Fuel-Supply System


    T1 Fuel Source P1 Control Valve V1 Pump Train 1 Emergency Diesel Engine Pump Train 2 Electric Power Source, E Control System, C Cooling System, CO
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 19

    T2 Fuel Source

    P2

    Control Valve V2

    Fault tree elements


    TOP EVENT

    OR Gate

    INTERMEDIATE EVENT, A INCOMPLETELY DEVELOPED EVENT, B

    AND Gate

    2 Transfer in from Sheet 2

    A1 Basic Event A1

    A2 Basic Event A2

    Note: Its helpful to start the fault-tree development from the output of the system (the top event) and work backwards.
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 20

    LOSS OF FUEL FLOW , T

    LOSS OF TRAIN 1

    E1

    LOSS OF TRAIN 2

    E2

    MECHANICAL M LOSS OF TRAIN 2 2

    Loss of Electricity E

    Loss of Control C

    Loss of Cooling CO

    T2

    P2

    V2 MECHANICAL LOSS OF TRAIN M 1 1

    Loss of Electricity E

    Loss of Control C

    Loss of Cooling CO

    T1

    P1

    V1
    21

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    A simpler fault tree


    No Fuel is Delivered When Needed

    E Fails

    C Fails

    CO Fails

    Pumping Branches Fail

    Train 1 Fails

    Train 2 Fails

    T1 Fails to Supply Fuel

    P1 Fails to Pump Fuel

    V1 Fails Closed

    T2 Fails to Supply Fuel

    P2 Fails to Pump Fuel

    V2 Fails Closed
    22

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    Development of T1
    Tank T1 Failure to Supply Fuel

    Tank is Intact But Em pty and Undetected

    Tank (and Supply Pipe) is Not Intact

    Supply Pipe is Plugged

    Tank is Em pty Fuel Level Detection Fails Hum an Action Sludge Buildup

    Tank is Em ptied Inadvertantly (hum an error)

    Tank is Em ptied in Use and Not Refilled

    Tank Drain Valve is Left O pen

    Corrosion Induced Failure Earthquake Induced Failure M issile Im pact Induced Failure Internal Fire/Explosion Induced Failure Corrosion

    Fatique Induced Failure

    Faulty M anufacture & Control Program

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    23

    System min cut sets


    Any combination of an element of T1, Tank P1, Pump and of V1, Valve T2, Tank P2, Pump V2, Valve

    C
    plus

    CO

    Control System or Electric Power Source or Cooling System

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    24

    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty

    25

    Examples of Initiating Events


    Loss of Coolant Transients Human Error Loss of Power Fires Airplane Crashes Earthquakes
    RPRA 1. The Logic of Certainty 26

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