Political Report November 2012

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O N T H L Y
O L L
O M P I L A T I O N
Volume 8, Issue 10 November 2012
Blue, Red, and Purple in 2012

We show below the eighteen states that Democratic presidential candidates have won in each of the past six elections. In this election, these states and the District of Columbia had 242 electoral votes. Our friend and colleague at the National Journal Ron Brownstein calls them the blue wall. This year, the wall held for Obama. Brownstein notes that this is the most states Democrats have won that often [six times] since the formation of the modern party in 1828. The closest race was Pennsylvania, where Romney came within 5 points of the president. In the next Congress, Republicans will hold only four of the 36 U.S. Senate seats in these states. In the House, Democrats will hold more than 65 percent of the House seats in these states. ^
The Blue Wall Holds Strong

States Democrats have won in all of the past six elections 2012 Electoral College votes California* Connecticut* Delaware* District of Columbia Hawaii Illinois* Maine* Maryland* Massachusetts Michigan* Minnesota New Jersey* New York Oregon Pennsylvania* Rhode Island Vermont* Washington Wisconsin 55 7 3 3 4 20 4 10 11 16 10 14 29 7 20 4 3 12 10 What happened in 2012^ Obama v. Romney 59% 39% 58 41 59 40 91 7 71 28 57 41 56 41 62 37 61 38 54 45 53 45 58 41 63 36 54 44 52 47 63 35 67 31 55 43 53 46
(continued on the next page)
* States that George H.W. Bush carried in 1988. ^ Note: Not all races have been decided and numbers are not final.
AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Intern: Patrick Horan.
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org
(continued from the previous page)
The Red Fence

We look next at the states that have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in the past six elections. These thirteen states had 102 electoral votes in this election. The Republican bloc looks a little more like a fence than a wall. Below, we examine states that have not consistently voted for any one party over the past six elections.
States Republicans have won in all of the past six elections 2012 Electoral College votes 9 3 4 6 6 5 3 7 9 3 38 6 3 What happened in 2012^ Obama v. Romney 38% 61% 42 55 33 65 38 60 44 55 38 61 39 59 33 67 44 55 40 58 41 57 25 73 28 69
Alabama Alaska Idaho Kansas Mississippi Nebraska North Dakota Oklahoma South Carolina South Dakota Texas Utah Wyoming
Various Shades of Purple

The following states include a mix of toss-up states and several states that President Bill Clinton was able to win in either 1992 or 1996, but have voted Republican since.
2012 Electoral College votes 11 6 9 29 11 6 8 8 10 3 6 4 5 15 18 11 13 5 Number of times a Republican has won between 1992 and 2008 5 4 3 3 5 1 4 4 4 5 2 1 1 5 2 4 4 5 What happened in 2012^ Obama v. Romney 44% 55% 37 61 51 47 50 49 44 54 52 46 38 61 40 59 44 54 42 55 52 46 52 47 53 43 48 51 50 48 39 59 51 48 36 62
Arizona Arkansas Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Kentucky Louisiana Missouri Montana Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico North Carolina Ohio Tennessee Virginia West Virginia
^ Note: Not all races have been decided and numbers are not final.
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202 .862.5800
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Election 2012: What the Exit Polls Told Us

In the next several pages of this issue, we look at how various groups in the electorate have voted over time. We begin with men and women. Starting in 1980, a political gender gap emerged, and in each election since then, more women than men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. Women made up 53 percent of the electorate this year. The gender gap in this election was 18 points. Since 1984, in the exit poll data available to us, married voters have been more Republican than voters who are not married. The category not married, which includes voters who are single, widowed, or divorced, has been more Democratic. The marriage gap was 41 points this year, up from 36 in 2008.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage)
Men 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage) 62 50 48 36 36 57 37 62 41 57 41 38 21 7 10 3 43 44 42 53 44 55 52
49 48
45
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Women
61 50 48 37 45 47 44 56 49 50 45 37 17 7 2 54 43 54 43 51 48 56 43 55 44
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Married
38
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
62 42
57 40 41 20 9 44 46 44
53 42
57 47
51 42
56
NA
NA
NA
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
80 70 Not married 60 50 40 30 20 10 NA 0
47
52
53
46
51 30 19
57 31 9
57 38
58 40
65
62 35
33
NA
NA
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
202 .862.5800
www.aei.org
Racial and Ethnic Voting Over Time

In 1972, white voters were around 90 percent of all voters. In 2012, they were 72 percent. Hispanics are a growing share of the electorate. This year, they were 10 percent of all voters, and they voted heavily for President Obama. The black vote is one of the few monolithic votes in Americans politics. In 2012, 93 percent of blacks voted for President Obama. Blacks were 13 percent of the electorate. Between 2000 and 2010, in Census data, Asians were the fastest growing ethnic group. They are not shown here. They were 3 percent of all voters this year, and they voted 73 percent for Obama.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage)
Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)
White80
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
68 48 32 52 36 56 34 8
68 60 40 39 40 22 9 3 44 46 42 55 41 58 43 55 39 59
1972
1976
1980
1984
90
1988
1992
1996
2000
90
2004
88
2008
95
2012
93
Black100
80 60 40 20 0
82
83
85
86
83
84
18
16
11
12
10 7
12
11
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Hispanic
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 63
76 59 35 24 6 33 62 37
69
72 61
67 56 43 31
67
71
30
25 14
31
21 6 2
27
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
202 .862.5800
www.aei.org
Ideology and Religious Attendance

Independents voted narrowly for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in 2012. This is the third time since 1972 that they have voted for the losing candidate. Democrats and Republicans were very loyal: more than 90 percent of each group voted for their partys candidate. Forty-two percent of the electorate said they attend religious services weekly, and they voted for Romney 59 to 39 percent for Obama. Those who never attend religious services made up 17 percent of the electorate, the highest proportion since 2000, and they voted for Obama 62 percent to 34 percent for Romney.
Independents
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 65 54 43 33 30 12 55 36 43 63 55 38
Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)
43 32 30
45 47 35 17 6
49 48
52 44
45
50
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Moderates 60
50 40 30 20 10 0
51
48
49 42
53 47
57 50 49 47 31 21 33
52 44
54 45
60
56 39 41
8 NA
9 2
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Attend worship at least once weekly

59 39 39
61 43
55 39
59
Never attend worship
61
62 36
67
62
32 6
30
34
992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
202 .862.5800
www.aei.org
Voters by Education
Voters who indicate that they have some college training have an excellent track record of voting for the winner, and once again in 2012, they voted for him, albeit very narrowly. They were 29 percent of all voters. College grads were also 29 percent of the electorate. Those with less than a high school diploma are a shrinking share of voters. They voted 64 percent for Obama. Fifty-five percent of those with post-graduate study voted for Obama. Voters who have done post-graduate work were 18 percent of all voters.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Independent presidential candidate (percentage) pVote forp p g 56 43 28 18 2 28 11 1 54 59 59 50 49 39 35 35 63 64
Not high school graduate

51 46 50 50
1972
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1976
1980
1984
60
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
High school graduate

51 43 39
49 50
51 43 36 21 13 35
48 49
47
52
52 46
51
48
1972
1976
1980
1984
61 38
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Some college
55 35 57 42 41 37 21 8 10 3 48 40 45 51 54 46 51 47 49 48
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
62 37
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
College graduate 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 35 11 41
58
39 41 20
44 46
45
51
46
52
49 48
47
51
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Post-graduate
48 50 50 36 14
52 40 5
52 44 3
55 44 58 40 55 42
202 .862.5800
www.aei.org
Voters by Religion
Protestants tend to vote for Republican presidential candidates as they did again in 2012. Catholics were a quarter of the electorate, and they voted for Obama over Romney. White Catholics voted for Romney over Obama by 59 to 40 percent. Jews were 2 percent of all voters (as were Mormons). Jews voted for Obama over Romney by 69 to 30 percent. Seventyeight percent of Mormons voted for Romney.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage)
Protestant
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70 55 44 28 35 32 6 59 38 67 61 45 36
Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage) 58 50 41 18 8 1 40 40 59 45 37 62
54
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Catholic
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 44
54
54 44 42
50 45
54 47
52 44 35 20
53 37
49 47
47
52
54 45
50 48
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
White Catholic Jewish

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
42 57 52 46 40 51 7
42 57
43 56 42 37 22 48 41 10 46 51 2
80 78 79
43 56 47 52 40 59
78 69
64
64 45 34 34 39 15
67
74
64
31
35 11 9 16 3 19 1 25 21
30
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
202 .862.5800
www.aei.org
Other Groups
Union households were 18 percent of the electorate, and they supported Obama over Romney. Gay, lesbian, or bisexual voters supported the Democratic presidential candidate strongly. Parents with children under 18 years of age voted for George W. Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008 and 2012. This year, 51 percent of them voted for Obama and 47 percent voted for Romney. Full-time workers broke evenly between Romney and Obama.
Union household
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 6 47 59 50 39 49 53 44 46 57 42 24 21 55
Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage) 59 59 59 40 59 58 39 40
37 30
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
72
1996
66
2000
71
2004
77
2008
70
2012
76
Gay, Lesbian, 70 Bisexual 60

50 40 30 20 10 0
80
22 14 14 NA NA NA NA NA 7
25 4
23
27
22
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
55 44
1992
1996
2000
52
2004
53 45
2008
53 45
2012
51
Parents of kids 18 and under
48 40 38 22 9 41
45
47
NA
NA
NA
NA
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
53 45
2008
55 43
2012
Work full-time
0 40 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
60
48 40
49 48
49 49
12 2
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
202 .862.5800
www.aei.org

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A

Volume 8, Issue 10 November 2012

Blue, Red, and Purple in 2012

The Blue Wall Holds Strong

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

(continued from the previous page)

The Red Fence

Various Shades of Purple

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

Election 2012: What the Exit Polls Told Us

Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage) 62 50 48 36 36 57 37 62 41 57 41 38 21 7 10 3 43 44 42 53 44 55 52

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

(continued from the previous page)

Racial and Ethnic Voting Over Time

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

(continued from the previous page)

Ideology and Religious Attendance

Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)

Attend worship at least once weekly

Never attend worship

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

(continued from the previous page)

Not high school graduate

High school graduate

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

(continued from the previous page)

White Catholic Jewish

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

(continued from the previous page)

Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage) 59 59 59 40 59 58 39 40

Gay, Lesbian, 70 Bisexual 60

Parents of kids 18 and under

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20036 .,

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