2012 Election Briefing Book - FINAL R2
2012 Election Briefing Book - FINAL R2
2012 Election Briefing Book - FINAL R2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 2012: Whats at stake ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 2012: State of play .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Fast Facts................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 NBC News Battleground Map ........................................................................................................................................ 5 The Path to 270 ................................................................................................................................................................... 6 What if theres a tie? .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 The Money Race ................................................................................................................................................................ 10 Past Election Results (1980-2008)............................................................................................................................ 13 Voter Turnout (1980-2010) ......................................................................................................................................... 14 2008 Exit Polls ................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Decision 2012: How We Got Here.............................................................................................................................. 17 The Candidates on the Issues ...................................................................................................................................... 20 Viewers Guide ........................................................................................................................................................................ 25 7:00 PM (6): Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia .................................... 26 7:30 PM (3): North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia .......................................................................................... 27 8:00 PM (17): Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee ............................................................................................................. 28 8:30 PM (1): Arkansas ............................................................................................................................................... 32 9:00 PM (14): Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming ................................. 32 10:00 PM (4): Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah .................................................................................................... 36 11:00 PM (5): California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington ................................................................. 37 1:00 AM (1): Alaska..................................................................................................................................................... 38 Senate ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 House .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 76 Governors ................................................................................................................................................................................. 78 The States.................................................................................................................................................................................. 92 Key Ballot Measures .......................................................................................................................................................... 145
OVERVIEW:
FAST FACTS
If Obama is re-elected, it would be the first time since Jefferson, Madison, Monroe that Americans have elected three two-term presidents in a row. If President Obama loses, he will join Jimmy Carter as the only incumbent Democrat to lose reelection since the turn of the 20th century. Only once since the turn of the 20th century has a sitting president lost re-election after taking over from the opposite party four years earlier. That happened in 1980 when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. This is the first presidential election since World War II without a candidate on either ticket who has served in the military. This presidential election marks two-straight cycles without a southerner on the ticket. The last presidential election before 2008 without a southerner was 1972. This is the first presidential election since 1984 without a sitting or recently resigned U.S. senator on the ticket.1 This is not Mitt Romneys first run for president, a trait he shares with every non-incumbent Republican nominee since 1968 other than George W. Bush in 2000. Romney is unlikely to win Michigan, the state where he was born. Bob Dole is the only Republican nominee since Reagan to win the state in which he was born. This is the first election since 1972 before the post-Watergate campaign-finance reforms in which neither candidate has accepted public funds. Iowa and New Mexico are the only two states that have voted for successively different candidates in the past three presidential elections. They both voted for Gore (2000), Bush (2004) and Obama (2008). Of the seven NBC News toss-up states, five have been decided by single digit margins in the last five presidential elections. Those states are Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire. So far in this election cycle, outside groups have spent $787 million, up from $301 million in 2008 and $200 million in 2004. Ten U.S. senators are not seeking re-election this cycle the most retirements since 1996. In addition, Republican Sen. Dick Lugar of Indiana was defeated in his states primary, meaning at least 11 new faces will join the Senate next January.2 Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ electoral votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 presidential elections. Indiana (and its 11 electoral votes) seems assured to flip this November, while Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10) remain candidates as well. (Via Univ. of Minnesotas Smart Politics)
1 2
Bob Dole resigned his U.S. Senate seat in June 1996 in order to focus on the presidential race. Technically two candidates would not be entirely new if they won. Nebraskas Bob Kerrey (D) and Virginias George Allen (R) have both served in the Senate previously, but are not sitting Senators.
up to 252, but a Minnesota Democratic elector cast a presidential ballot for Democratic vice-presidential candidate John Edwards, presumably a mistake.
2008 Obama States Florida (+2)* Nevada (+1)* Washington (+1) Iowa (-1)* Illinois (-1) Massachusetts (-1) Michigan (-1) New Jersey (-1) Pennsylvania (-1) New York (-2) Ohio (-2)*
2008 McCain States Texas (+4) Arizona (+1) Georgia (+1) So. Carolina (+1) Utah (+1) Louisiana (-1) Missouri (-1)
*Indicates toss-up state
President Obama GO BIG If Obama wins all of Kerrys states from 2004 (246 EV) plus New Mexico (5), where hes favored, and two of the three battleground states of Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13) a.k.a. FLOHVA Obama would easily surpass 270 electoral votes. WINNING WITHOUT FLOHVA If Obama holds all the Kerry states (246) plus New Mexico
(5) and combines the small swing states New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Colorado (9), Iowa (6) it gets the president to 272, a scenario in which Obama could win the presidency without winning Florida, Ohio or Virginia. But if Obama loses any of the non-FLOHVA swing states Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), or Wisconsin (10) he must win either Florida, Ohio, or Virginia.
OHIO PLUS (OUTSIDE THE MIDWEST). Begin with the assumption Obama holds all the
Kerry states (246) plus New Mexico (5), which gets him to 251. Add Ohio (18) and that still would not be enough. In fact, it brings us to the dreaded tie scenario of 269-269. Therefore, Obama would then need to add just one of the following: Big states. Virginia (13), Florida (29) or North Carolina (15). Small states. Iowa (6), Colorado (9) or Nevada (6), all of which were won by both Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2004. Obama is favored in Nevada, making this scenario his most likely path past 270. It underscores why Ohio is so important.
THE MIDWEST FIREWALL. In addition to the Kerry states plus New Mexico, Obama could surpass 270 electoral votes by simply winning Iowa (6), Ohio (18), and Wisconsin (10). And polls show that Obama might be running the strongest in these three states. But Romney simply picking off just one of these states breaks this firewall. THE HISPANIC FIREWALL. In poll after poll, Obama has fared very well with Hispanics, even
outpacing his 2008 numbers in some cases. The trio of Western swing states where Hispanic populations are high Nevada (6), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) have a combined 20 electoral votes. Thats more than Ohio (18) or Virginia (13). But with the Kerry states, the Hispanic firewall only gets him to 266. He would still need one more state e.g. Iowa (6) or Ohio (18) to get past 270.
Governor Romney THE TRADITIONAL, GO BIG In this scenario the most likely winning scenario for
Romney he begins by holding the traditional red states. If he sweeps the big states of Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13) and adds just one more swing state, he crosses 270.
WINNING WITHOUT FLOHVA? Its very difficult for Romney. Theres almost no scenario
we can come up with that gives Romney a victory without winning at least one of the FLOHVA states. Even if you give him Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4), where he owns a home, Romney is still only at 257. All of those states plus Pennsylvania (20) would put Romney just over the top at 273, but polls show Obama ahead in Pennsylvania and the Romney campaign is not spending money there on advertising. Neither is it in Michigan, making a scenario in which Romney wins without FLOHVA nearly impossible.
CAN ROMNEY WIN WITH JUST ONE OF FLOHVA? Yes, but its a narrow path. And he would
likely have to do it with the one state being Florida (29). To get there, Romney would also have to pick off Colorado (9) and Nevada (6) in the West, Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6) in the industrial Midwest, and New Hampshire (4). That scenario would bring Romney to 270 on the nose.
FLORIDA A MUST-WIN FOR ROMNEY? If you give Florida (29) to Obama, Romneys
prospects significantly dwindle. If Romney wins every toss-up state but Florida meaning he wins Colorado (9), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10) he is still only at 266. He would then need to win at least one state that currently leans Obama, meaning he would need to win Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) or Minnesota (10) a very tall order.
THE INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST. The industrial Midwest is very important for Romney. If
Romney wins Florida (29) and Virginia (13), it brings him to 269. If Romney doesnt win Nevada (6) or Colorado (9), he would then need at least one industrial Midwest swing state Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Iowa (6), Ohio (18) to get over the top and break the tie.
Fundraising
Romney campaign Total receipts: $361 million Total spent: $298 million Cash on hand: $63 million Debts: $5 million Candidate contribution: $52,500 Obama campaign Total receipts: $567 million Total spent: $470 million Cash on hand: $99 million Debts: $2.6 million
Ad Spending
Overall: $883 million Team Romney (includes outside groups): $510 million Team Obama (includes outside groups): $373 million Total spending by the campaigns: $490 million Obama campaign: $312 million Romney campaign: $178 million Total outside spending: $393 million (45% of total) Outside spending supporting Obama: $61 million Outside spending supporting Romney: $332 million Just how much money comes from outside groups? The $393 million spent on just TV and radio ads surpasses the record for total spending for things like mailers, staff, and keeping the lights on by outside groups in previous cycles. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, when all expenditures for outside groups are taken into account, theyve spent $728 million so far. Outside spending through the years: 2012 - $728 million 2010 - $295 million 2008 - $302 million 2006 - $69 million 2004 - $200 million 2002 - $27 million
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
2000 - $51 million 1998 - $15 million 1996 - $18 million 1994 - $10 million 1992 $19 million 1990 - $7 million
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Total TV/Radio spending by advertiser Obama campaign ............................................................................................. $312 million Romney campaign .......................................................................................... $178 million Restore Our Future (pro-Romney) .......................................................... $83 million American Crossroads (pro-Romney) ...................................................... $79 million Crossroads GPS (pro-Romney) .................................................................. $61million Priorities USA (pro-Obama)........................................................................ $55 million Americans for Prosperity (pro-Romney) .............................................. $46 million Republican National Committee (pro-Romney) ................................. $28 million Americans for Job Security (pro-Romney) ............................................ $11 million American Future Fund (pro-Romney) .................................................... $7 million Concerned Women for America (pro-Romney) .................................. $4.8 million National Rifle Association (pro-Romney).............................................. $4 million Tom Petterfy (pro-Romney) ....................................................................... $2.8 million SEIU (pro-Obama) .......................................................................................... $2.5 million American Energy Alliance (pro-Romney) ............................................. $2.5 million Planned Parenthood (pro-Obama)........................................................... $1.5 million Secure America Now (pro-Romney) ....................................................... $1.2 million League of Conservation Voters (pro-Obama) ...................................... $1.1 million Priorities/League of Conservation Voters (pro-Obama) ................. $1 million Women Speak Out (pro-Romney) ............................................................ $300,000 MoveOn.org (pro-Obama) ........................................................................... $280,000 *Jill Stein (Green Party candidate) ........................................................... $111,000 Top states 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Ohio $181 million Florida $177 million Virginia $132 million Colorado $77 million North Carolina $69 million Iowa $69 million Nevada $54 million New Hampshire $39 million 9. Wisconsin $37 million 10. Pennsylvania $19 million ($0 from Romney campaign) 11. Michigan $15 million ($0 from either campaign) 12. Minnesota $6 million 13. Maine $134,000 (all Restore Our Future) 14. New Mexico $49,000
The Swing Markets (won by Bush and Obama) There are just 17 swing markets, won by both Bush and Obama. The campaigns are only playing in 15 of those. The missing two are both in Michigan. Here are the swing markets (alphabetically by state):
Orlando-Daytona Beach, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota, FL Des Moines, IA Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo, MI Lansing, MI Reno, NV Raleigh-Durham, NC Columbus, OH Toledo, OH Charlottesville, VA Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News, VA Richmond-Petersburg, VA Green Bay, WI Milwaukee, WI
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Ad spending by month Ad spending really picked up after Labor Day and the conventions. In just a month and a half, more than half of all ad spending took place with $457 million in ads booked since then. October ........................................ $320 million* September .................................. $136 million August .......................................... $128 million July ................................................ $143 million June ............................................... $84 million May ............................................... $55 million April .............................................. $17 million
The figures for Oct. include $12 million spent on ads for the first week of November so far.
*Note:
1984: (R) Ronald Reagan/George Bush 54,455,472 (58.8%) (D) Walter Mondale/Geraldine Ferraro 37,577,352 (40.6%) 1988: (R) George Bush/Danforth Quayle (D) Michael Dukakis/Lloyd Bentsen 1992: (D) William Clinton/Albert Gore (R) George Bush/Danforth Quayle (Ref.) Ross Perot/James Stockdale 1996: (D) William Clinton/Albert Gore (R) Robert Dole/Jack Kemp (Ref.) Ross Perot/Pat Choate 2000: (R) George W. Bush/Richard Cheney (D) Albert Gore/Joseph Lieberman (G) Ralph Nader/Winona LaDuke 2004: (R) George W. Bush/Richard Cheney (D) John Kerry/John Edwards 2008: (D) Barack Obama/Joseph Biden (R) John McCain/Sarah Palin
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A record 133 million voted in the 2008 presidential election. 2010 set the midterm turnout record, when 86 million went to the polls.
Midterm Elections
YEAR
2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 1990 1986 1982 AVG
Presidential Elections
YEAR
2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984
TURNOUT %
41.0% 40.4% 39.5% 38.1% 41.1% 38.4% 38.1% 42.1% 39.7%
TOTAL TURNOUT
90 million 86 million 80 million 75 million 75 million 68 million 65 million 68 million
TURNOUT %
61.6% 60.1% 54.2% 51.7% 58.1% 52.8% 55.2% 54.2% 56%
TOTAL TURNOUT
133 million 124 million 107 million 96 million 104 million 92 million 93 million 87 million
1980 AVG
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2008 Party identification Democrat Republican Independent Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Obama 89-10 (39% of total) McCain 90-9 (32% of total) Obama 52-44 (29% of total) 2008 Obama 89-10 (22% of total) Obama 60-39 (44% of total) McCain 78-20 (34% of total) 2008 RELIGION McCain 54-45 (54% of total) Obama 54-45 (27% of total) Obama 78-21 (2% of total) Obama 73-22 (6% of total) Obama 75-23 (12% of total) McCain 74-24 (26% of total) McCain 55-43 (40% of total)
2004 Kerry 89-11 (37% of total) Bush 93-6 (37% of total) Kerry 49-48 (26% of total) 2004 Kerry 85-13 (21% of total) Kerry 54-45 (45% of total) Bush 84-15 (34% of total) 2004 Bush 59-40 (54% of total) Bush 52-47 (27% of total) Kerry 74-25 (3% of total) Kerry 74-23 (7% of total) Kerry 67-31 (10% of total) Bush 78-21 (23% of total) Bush 61-39 (41% of total)
Protestant/other Christian Catholic Jewish Other None Key subgroups White evangelical Attend religious services at least weekly
2008 2004 Condition of nations economy Excellent/good McCain 72-26 (7% of total) Bush 87-13 (47% of total) Not so good McCain 59-40 (44% of total) Kerry 72-26 (35% of total) Poor Obama 66-31 (49% of total) Kerry 92-6 (17% of total) 2008 2004 FAMILY FINANCIAL SITUATION COMPARED TO FOUR YEARS AGO Better McCain 60-37 (24% of total) Bush 80-19 (32% of total) Worse Obama 71-28 (42% of total) Kerry 79-20 (28% of total) Same McCain 53-45 (34% of total) Kerry 50-49 (39% of total)
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2011 Summer: Debt hits the ceiling, candidates hit the trail
Jun. 2: In a speech to supporters gathered at a farm in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney officially announces his presidential bid. Jul. 31: After months of contentious onagain, off-again negotiations, Congress and White House reach deal on raising the debt the ceiling. Aug. 5: S&P downgrades U.S. debt in the wake of the fractious debt-ceiling debate
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Afghanistan
ROMNEY: Has not articulated a clear position on Afghanistan. Repeatedly spoke out against issuing timelines, saying they showed President Obamas naivet. But then endorsed a 2014 drawdown the same timeline issued by the president. Also during a GOP presidential primary debate, raised eyebrows when he said, But I also think we've learned that our troops shouldn't go off and try and fight a war of independence for another nation. Only the Afghanis can win Afghanistan's independence from the Taliban. Yet in later debates, said he wouldnt negotiate with the Taliban; in fact, he said he would beat them. But that would only require a longer U.S. commitment in Afghanistan. OBAMA: In 2009, the president announced a surge of some 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan. Three years later, the U.S. said troops would be drawn down by 2014 but the president also signed an agreement committing to work with Afghanis as they move to secure their own country through 2024. Also part of that agreement, the U.S. will get access to Afghan facilities, but the U.S. will not seek permanent bases there. But Afghanistan has seen an uptick in violence, and NATO forces have been faced with the problem of their security forces being killed and targeted by soldiers in Afghan uniforms.
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Economy
ROMNEY: According to the economic plan he unveiled in Sept. 2011 and the major economic speech he delivered in Feb. 2012, Romney wants to cut individual tax rates (a 20% reduction in marginal taxes), corporate tax rates (to 25%), and taxes on capital gains and dividends. In addition, he advocates reducing regulations, increasing domestic energy production, and expanding free trade. And he believes that economic growth requires spending discipline supporting a cap on spending and a constitutional amendment to balance the budget. Most recently, Romney has boiled down his economic message to five principles: 1) take advantage of domestic energy resources, 2) give Americans the job skills they need, 3) forge new trade agreements, 4) balance the budget, and 5) reduce taxes. OBAMA: His signature economic measure was the $787 billion stimulus, which non-partisan observers (like the Congressional Budget Office) believe reduced unemployment and increased economic growth but which also didnt lead to an economic boom. In Aug. 2012, the unemployment rate was at 8.1%, which is below where it was during Obamas first full month in office (and down from its high of 10.0% in Aug. 2009). The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 43-straight months. In Sept. 2011 after the bruising debt-ceiling showdown Obama introduced his American Jobs Act, which included extending the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance, giving tax cuts to small businesses that hire new workers, and investing in transportation and new schools. Congress did pass some of the measures (like the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance) but didnt act on others.
Health care
ROMNEY: His plan in Massachusetts is widely regarded as the blueprint for the presidents national plan. (He recently acknowledged being the grandfather of Obamacare.) Romney doesnt back away from his plan, but has drawn a very fine distinction that it was good at a state level, but shouldnt be implemented at a federal one. If elected, Romney vows to repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with narrower provisions like reforming medical malpractice rules and making sure people with preexisting conditions are not dropped from their health insurance. The last provision landed Romney in some controversy when, on Meet the Press, he said, I'm not getting rid of all of healthcare reform. Of course, there are a number of things that I like in healthcare reform that I'm going to put in place. He later walked that back, saying, ObamaCare must be repealed in its entirety. But added that he would push a plan that included not allowing people to be dropped from their insurance if they get ill. OBAMA: It took a lot of political capital and may have cost Democrats the U.S. House in 2010 but President Obamas Affordable Care Act represents his biggest domestic achievement. It then became the subject of state-based lawsuits and then upheld by a narrow 5-4 majority by the U.S. Supreme Court. At the heart of those cases is the so-called individual mandate, which requires all adults to have health insurance. Obamas support for a mandate might have been his biggest flip-flop. He campaigned against it for nearly two years and then implemented it as president. Though Republicans have derisively termed the Affordable Care Act ObamaCare, the president now fully embraces the moniker.
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Immigration
ROMNEY: During his GOP presidential primary fights in 2007-2008 and 2011-2012, opposed comprehensive immigration reform, even though he seemed to endorse a path to citizenship in a 2006 interview. He also advocated building a wall building a fence/wall between the U.S. and Mexico. But after President Obama announced his administrations policy to no longer deport qualified young illegal immigrants, Romney said he would work to achieve a long-term solution to immigration (yet Romney refused to say whether he would overturn this executive action if he wins the White House). Also during the 12 primary season, Romney said he would veto the DREAM Act; he touted the endorsement of Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (who helped co-author Arizonas controversial immigration law); and he called for the self-deportation of illegal immigrants, saying: People decide they can do better by going home because they can`t find work here because they don`t have legal documentation to allow them to work here. OBAMA: In 2008, campaigned on passing comprehensive immigration reform, but was unable to achieve that blaming opposition from congressional Republicans (including some who previously backed comprehensive immigration reform). Also tried to pass the DREAM Act an effort to give some children of illegal immigrants a chance at legal status but the legislation wasnt able to get the 60 votes in the Senate needed to clear a procedural hurdle. After his administration had overseen a record number of illegal immigrant deportations, Obama announced on June 15, 2012 that it would no longer deport young illegal immigrants who have graduated from high school, served in the military, and have a clean criminal record a modification of the DREAM Act.
Iran
ROMNEY: Has taken an especially harsh tone toward Obama on this issue, calling it perhaps the presidents biggest failure. Says Obamas policies have not prevented Iran from pursuing development of a nuclear weapon. Because of the threat Iran poses to Israel, the subject of Iran was a hot topic in the OP presidential primary. Romneys plan toward Iran involves: 1) demonstrating military strength and readiness; 2) increasing military and intelligence coordination with Israel to be ready to deal with Iran; 3) pursuing a fifth round of sanctions; 4) indicting Ahmadinejad for genocide under Article III of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide; and 5) supporting the Iranian opposition. OBAMA: Under President Obama, the U.S. pursued diplomatic avenues with Iran, then tough sanctions through the United Nations, and even a degree of cyber war. (The U.S. was reportedly involved in attacking the computer system of one of Irans nuclear facilities.) The president has had a strained relationship at times with Israels Prime Minister Netanyahu, in part, because of the presidents early insistence that Israel halt settlement expansion as a condition to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Netanyahu has called for the U.S. to set red lines against Iran something the White House and State Department have declined to do.
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Medicare
ROMNEY: Has essentially endorsed the latest version of the Ryan budget plan, which substantially transforms Medicare by giving future seniors a payment Democrats call it a voucher, Republicans call it premium support to purchase health insurance. Under Ryan's plan, seniors would have the choice of buying private insurance or through Medicares traditional fee-for-service model. In 2011, the Congressional Budget Office said the original Ryan plan which didn't provide the choice of remaining in Medicare would force most seniors to pay more for their health care than under the current Medicare system. Romney stresses that any Medicare changes would apply to future seniors (starting in 2022) and that lower-income seniors would receive more generous benefits. But he also advocates raising Medicare's eligibility age. Romney also has issued a counterattack to Democratic charges that the Romney-Ryan plan would substantially transform Medicare he has accused Obama of raiding $716 billion from the program to pay for the health-care law. OBAMA: Instead of substantially transforming Medicare as Romney and the Republicans advocate Obama supports making tweaks to shore up the program. Those tweaks include asking wealthy seniors to pay more and reducing subsidies to drug companies. But his biggest reform came with the health-care law, which created the Independent Payment Advisory Board (whose members are chosen by the president and confirmed by the Senate) to identify additional savings in Medicare. The health-care law also found $716 billion in Medicare savings (primarily in payments to providers and insurers, not in payments to beneficiaries), which extended the solvency of the programs trust fund until 2024. During the debt-ceiling talks, according to the Huffington Post, Obama offered to increase Medicares eligibility age from 65 to 67 to get Republicans to accept increased tax revenues
Social Security
ROMNEY: Advocates raising the retirement age for future seniors to shore up Social Security's finances. Wants poor recipients to receive more generous benefits, and thinks wealthier recipients should receive less. OBAMA: Has called for a bipartisan approach to shoring up Social Security's finances. Backs raising the income cap on Social Security taxes (now at about $107,000) as a way to get more revenues for the program. Opposes increasing the retirement age.
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Syria
ROMNEY: Has called for the overthrow of the Assad regime, beginning with the U.S. and allies arming the rebels. Romneys plan boils down to: 1) arming the rebels; 2) pushing for sanctions at UN; 3) involving Saudi Arabia and Turkey to leverage political pressure to protect civilians; and 4) saying the U.S. would support a post-Assad regime. OBAMA: As he did with Libya, Obama made the decision not to get the U.S. overtly involved with military action in Syria. He instead opted to give the Annan peace process a chance to work. But when it looked destined for failure, as government-led violence increased, Obama called for Assad to step down and approved of clandestine support for the opposition though the extent of that support remains unclear. Obama said the use or movement of chemical weapons by Syria, however, would be a red line. That could change his calculus on whether to send in troops.
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VIEWERS GUIDE:
A hot races quick guide of what to watch as the polls close
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VIEWERS GUIDE: What to watch as the polls close across the country
The following is an hour-by-hour, state-by-state, race-by-race, condensed guide of what to watch as the polls close. With each race, we provide ratings from the Cook Political Report: SOLID: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. LIKELY: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged. LEAN: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage. TOSS UP: These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning.
7:00 pm (6): Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia 7:30 pm (3): North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia 8:00 pm (17): Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee 8:30 pm (1): Arkansas 9:00pm (14): Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming 10:00pm (4): Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah 11:00 pm (5): California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington 1:00am (1): Alaska
7:00 PM (6): Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia GEORGIA
Governor: No election. Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) is up in 2014. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) is up in 2016. House: 1 race to watch out of 14. O GA-12: Redistricting made this race much more difficult for incumbent John Barrow (D), who faces off against Georgia State Sen. Lee Anderson (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP.
INDIANA
Governor: Conservative star Mike Pence (R) is leaving the House of Representatives to run for Indiana governor. He faces John Gregg (D), former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives. The seat is open due to term limits on current Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). Cook Political Rating: LIKELY R Senate: Tea Party-backed Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) defeated six-term incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar (R) in an insurgent primary battle. But Mourdock recently stirred controversy in a debate by saying that even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that is something that God intended to happen. Mourdock later tried to clarify, saying he did not think god intended for rape to happen, but his non-incumbent status and controversial remark give the Democratic nominee, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), a shot at picking up the seat. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 1 race to watch out of 9. O IN-8: Freshman Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) faces Democratic challenger Dave Crooks (D), a former state Rep. and radio talk show host. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R
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7:00/7:30 PM ET
Governor: No election. The second and final term of Gov. Steve Beshear (D) ends in 2015. Senate: No election. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), the Senate Republican Leader, is up in 2014. Freshman Sen. Rand Paul (R) is up in 2016. House: 1 race to watch out of 6. o KY-6: Four-term incumbent Rep. Ben Chandler (D) was one of the few white southern Democrats to survive the 2010 wave. He faces off in a rematch against attorney Andy Barr (R), whom Chandler beat by only 647 votes last time around. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Governor: No election. Gov. Nikki Haley (R) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is up in 2014. Sen. Jim DeMint (R) is up in 2016. House: 0 races to watch out of 7.
VERMONT
Governor: After one two-year term, incumbent Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) is up for re-election. He faces state Sen. Randy Brock (R). Given Vermonts solidly blue hue and the fact that it is a presidential year, Brock will be hard pressed to make this a competitive contest. Cook Political Rating: SOLID D Senate: First-term incumbent Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) runs as an independent but caucuses with Democrats. As such, no Democrat even filed to challenge him in November. Sanders will face John MacGovern (R), a former member of the Massachusetts state legislature. Cook Political Rating: SOLID D House: 0 races to watch out of 1.
VIRGINIA
Presidential battleground: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation? In 2008, Obama won the state by a 53%-46% margin exactly matching Obamas national win. The same could likely hold true in 2012. Governor: No election. Due to term limits, the seat currently held by Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) is up in 2013. Senate: Two former Virginia governors face off for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D) in what has emerged as one of the nations most hotly contested Senate races. Tim Kaine (D) is a former governor and former Democratic National Committee chairman. George Allen (R) is a former governor and a former Senator from Virginia. Allen held the Senate seat hes running for, but lost to Sen. Webb in 2006. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 0 races to watch out of 11.
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7:30/8:00 PM ET
House: 1 race to watch out of 13. o NC-7: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) was one of the few white Southern Democrats to survive 2010. He faces a tough race against state Sen. David Rouzer (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
OHIO
Presidential battleground: No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning the Buckeye State. But Ohio, according to the polls, has been more of a challenge for Romney than any other battleground state. Governor: No election. Gov. John Kasich (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Incumbent first-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faces a tough challenge from state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D House: 2 races to watch out of 16. o OH-6: Freshman Rep. Bill Johnson (R) faces former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D), the two-term Democrat Johnson narrowly unseated in 2010. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o OH-16: Ohios 16th district essentially has two incumbents: two current members of Congress, Rep. Jim Renacci (R) and Rep. Betty Sutton (D), are running against each other due to their districts being merged as part of redistricting. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
WEST VIRGINIA
Governor: Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) became governor in Nov. 2010 after then-Gov. Joe Manchin (D) resigned to assume West Virginias junior U.S. Senate seat. On Election Day, Tomblin faces businessman Bill Maloney (R), his Republican challenger from the 2011 special election to fill the remainder of Manchins term. Tomblin won that race 50 to 47. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D. Senate: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) faces Republican businessman John Raese (R), whom Manchin defeated in a 2010 special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D). Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D House: 0 races to watch out of 3.
ALABAMA
Governor: No election. Gov. Robert Bentley is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Richard Shelby (R) is up in 2016. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) is up in 2014. House: 0 races to watch out of 7.
CONNECTICUT
Governor: No election. Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) is up in 2104. Senate: Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy (D) faces off against 2010 Senate nominee and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R) to fill the open seat of retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I). Lieberman ran as an independent but caucuses with the Democrats, making Connecticut a possible pickup for Republicans. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 1 race to watch out of 5. o CT-5: Connecticuts 5th district is open due to Rep. Chris Murphy (D) running for Senate. Former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) faces off against liberal GOP state Sen. Andrew Roraback (R). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D
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Governor: Incumbent Gov. Jack Markell (D) faces nominal opposition from Republican businessman Jeff Cragg (R). Cook Political Rating: SOLID D Senate: Incumbent Sen. Tom Carper (D) should have no trouble fending off a challenge from businessman Kevin Wade (R). Cook Political Rating: SOLID D House: 0 races to watch out of 1.
FLORIDA
Presidential battleground: This state is absolutely a must-win for Romney, and the polling so far shows it to be a toss-up with a perhaps a slight advantage to Romney. Governor: No election. Gov. Rick Scott (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) faces current Rep. Connie Mack (R), known for being married to Sonny Bonos widow, Rep. Mary Bono (R), and for being the great-grandson of Cornelius McGillicuddy, who owned and managed the Philadelphia Athletics for 50 years. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D. House: 5 races to watch out of 27. o FL-2: Rep. Steve Southerland (R) faces fmr. state Sen. Al Lawson (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o FL-10: In a race that just recently tightened, Rep. Dan Webster (R) faces retired Orlando police chief Val Demings (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o FL-18: Freshman Rep. Allen West (R), a prominent face of the Tea Party, faces construction executive Patrick Murphy (D). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o FL-22: Floridas 22nd district is a new seat to emerge out of the states redistricting process. Former state House Minority Leader and West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel (D) is slightly favored over GOP state Rep. Adam Hasner (R), who dropped running for U.S. Senate to run and brought $600,000 with him. Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D o FL-26: Freshman Rep. David Rivera (R) faces challenger Joe Garcia (D), who ran as the Democrats nominee for the seat in 2008 and 2010. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D
ILLINOIS
Governor: No election. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is up in 2014. Sen. Mark Kirk (R) is up in 2016. House: 6 races to watch out of 18. o IL-08: Freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R) was swept into Congress in 2010 and quickly made headlines as one of the most controversial Republican critics of the president. Democrats in the Illinois legislature redistricted him into a heavily Democratic district and he is expected to lose to Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D o IL-10: No House Republican represents a more Democratic district than incumbent Rep. Bob Dold (R), who has raised over $2 million and emphasizes his support for Planned Parenthood and Israel. But after redistricting took away his best precincts, he's an underdog against businessman Brad Schneider (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D o IL-11: Seven-term Rep. Judy Biggert (R) faces an uphill battle after the Illinois legislature redrew her district and packed it with Democrats. Biggert, who is pro-choice and has a crossover record, faces deep-pocketed physicist and former Democratic Rep. Bill Foster (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D o IL-12: Current Rep. Jerry Costello (D) is retiring, leaving this seat open. After their first candidate dropped out, Democrats are fielding retired Illinois National Guard Gen. (Ret.) Bill Enyart (D), who has been playing catch up to 29-year-old GOP lumber businessman Jason Plummer (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o IL-13: Current Rep. Tim Johnson (R) announced he was retiring after the states primary, sending republicans scrambling to find a candidate. They picked Rodney Davis (R), a former top aide to Rep. John Shimkus (R). Democrats are running physician David Gill (D), a perennial loser against Johnson. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o IL-17: Incumbent Rep. Bobby Schilling (R), a former pizza shop owner who took this seat from Democrats in 2010, faces an uphill battle holding off Cheri Bustos (D), a former East Moline alderwoman and TV reporter who benefits from the 17th CD's strong Democratic lean postredistricting. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
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Governor: No election. Gov. Paul LePage (R) is up in 2014. Senate: With three-term Sen. Olympic Snowe (R) retiring, Maine could determine the balance of power in the Senate. Former two-term Gov. Angus King (I) is running as an independent and currently leads in statewide polls. But King has said he will not decide which party hell caucus with until he is elected. National Democrats are confident King will caucus with them and are not backing the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Cynthia Dill (D). The Republican nominee, Maine Secretary of State Charlie Summers (R), is hoping King and Dill will split enough votes to leave him on top. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 0 races to watch out of 2.
MARYLAND
Governor: No election. Gov. Martin OMalley (D) is up in 2014. Senate: Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) should have no problem heading off challenger Dan Bongino (R), a former Secret Service agent. Cook Political Rating: SOLID D House: 0 races to watch out of 8.
MASSACHUSETTS
Governor: No election. Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is up in 2014. Senate: No Senate race this cycle is as high profile as the Bay States race for Ted Kennedys old seat. Sen. Scott Brown (R), who won an upset victory in a January 2010 special election for the seat, faces Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren (D), known for her role in establishing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 1 race to watch out of 9. o MA-6: Incumbent Rep. John Tierney (D) has been bogged down by a negative story about his wifes involvement in her brothers illegal offshore gambling enterprise. He faces state Sen. Richard Tisei (R). Cook Political Rating: LEAN R
MISSISSIPPI
Governor: No election. Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is up in 2015. Senate: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) will have little trouble fending off a challenge from Al Gore Jr. (D), a retired Methodist minister and Army chaplain said to be a distant relative of Vice President Al Gore. Cook Political Rating: SOLID R House: 0 races to watch out of 4.
MISSOURI
Governor: Incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon (D) is slightly favored to fend off a challenge from businessman Dave Spence (R). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D Senate: In one of the countrys most talked-about Senate races, Republicans had Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) as one of their top targets for Senate pickups until her challenger, U.S. Rep. Todd Akin (R), set off a firestorm after using the phrase legitimate rape in an interview discussing abortion. Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D House: 0 races to watch out of 8.
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Presidential battleground: Its next door to Romneys home state of Massachusetts, but New Hampshire according to most public polls has been a challenge for him until late, when Romney has narrowed the gap. Governor: New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) is retiring, setting up a close race between former state Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and attorney and 2010 Senate nominee Ovide Lamontagne (R) to replace him. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP Senate: No election. Sen. Jeane Shaheen (D) is up in 2014. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is up in 2016. House: 2 races to watch out of 2. o NH-1: Rep. Frank Guinta (R), former Mayor of Manchester, faces former Rep. Carol SheaPorter (D), whom Guinta unseated in 2010. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o NH-2: Current Rep. Charlie Bass (R) was first elected in 1994, defeated in 2006 and then elected again in 2010. He faces attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D), whom he defeated for this seat in 2010. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D
NEW JERSEY
Governor: No election. Gov. Chris Christie (R) is up in 2013. Senate: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is unlikely to face too much resistance despite having a strong opponent in state Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R). Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D House: 1 race to watch out of 12. o NJ-3: Rep. Jon Runyan (R), a former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman, snagged this seat from Democrat John Adler in 2010. Adler died unexpectedly in 2011 from complications arising from staph infection, but Adlers wife, former Cherry Hill, NJ Councilwoman Shelley Adler (D), is running to take back his seat. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R
OKLAHOMA
Governor: No election. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) is up in 2014. Sen. Tom Coburn (R) is up in 2016. House: 0 races to watch out of 5.
PENNSYLVANIA
Governor: No election. Gov. Tom Corbett (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. Bob Casey (D) appears to be in good shape in his re-election bid. But the Republican candidate, Tom Smith (R), is a self-made coal businessman who has been willing to put millions of his own money into the campaign. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D House: 2 races to watch out of 18. o PA-8: Republicans shored up the district of Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) by about a point in the states redistricting process. Fitzpatrick, who served in the House for one term before losing his seat in 2006 and then regaining it in 2010, still faces a tough challenge from attorney Kathryn Boockvar (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o PA-12: Rep. Mark Critz (D) won this seat in a May 2010 special election after the death of longtime Congressman John Murtha, for whom Critz worked. Critz survived the 2010 midterms, but he is vulnerable to a challenge from attorney Keith Rothfus (R) after GOP-led redistricting made his district more conservative. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
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Governor: No election. Gov. Lincoln Chafee (I) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) should not have too much trouble defeating his Republican challenger, software executive Barry Hinckley (R). Cook Political Rating: SOLID D House: 1 race to watch out of 2. o RI-1: Rep. David Cicilline (D) has faced lots of recent bad press about his mismanagement of Providence finances when he served as the citys mayor. He hopes his districts solid blue leaning will help fend off a challenge from Rhode Island State Police Superintendent Brendan Doherty (R). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D
TENNESSEE
Governor: No election. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. Bob Corker (R), who narrowly beat then-U.S. Rep. Harold Ford (D) for this Senate seat in 2006, should have no trouble this time around. The Democratic nominee, self-described author and anti-gay rights activist Mark Clayton (D), has been disavowed by the state Democratic Party for his affiliation with a D.C.-based advocacy organization that the Southern Poverty Law Center has labeled an active anti-gay group. Cook Political Rating: SOLID R House: 0 races to watch out of 9.
ARIZONA
Governor: No election. Gov. Jan Brewer (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Arizona voters havent elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, but Democrats are pursuing the seat, left open by retiring three-term Sen. Jon Kyl (R). Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake (R), a popular House member from outside Phoenix. Flake will face fmr. U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 2 races to watch out of 9. o AZ-1: Arizonas 1st District is one of the states new districts. Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), who lost her previous House seat in 2010, will face off against former state Sen. Jonathan Paton (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o AZ-9: Another new Congressional District for Arizona, the 9th District comprises a welleducated, liberal-leaning area around Tempe and East Phoenix. State Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and fmr. Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker (R) are fighting it out for the new seat. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D
COLORADO
Presidential battleground: Obama won this state by nearly 9 percentage points in 2008, but it is shaping up to be one of the most competitive of all presidential battlegrounds in 2012. Governor: No election. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Mark Udall (D) is up in 2014. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is up in 2016.
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House: 2 races to watch out of 7. o CO-3: Rep. Scott Tipton (R) ousted three-term Democrat John Salazar in 2010, but he now faces a challenge from the state House Minority Leader Sal Pace (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o CO-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) was hurt when redistricting moved GOP-leaning Douglas County out of his district. He faces a challenge from state Rep. Joe Milosi (D) for one of the Democrats top House targets out West. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
KANSAS
Governor: No election. Gov. Sam Brownback (R) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Pat Roberts (R) is up in 2014. Sen. Jerry Moran (R) is up in 2016. House: 0 races to watch out of 4.
LOUISIANA
Governor: No election. Gov. Bobby Jindals (R) 2nd term ends in 2015. Senate: No election. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is up in 2014. Sen. David Vitter (R) is up in 2016. House: 0 races to watch out of 6.
MICHIGAN
Governor: No election. Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) faces fmr. Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R). Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D House: 2 races to watch out of 14. o MI-1: Freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R) faces a rematch against his 2010 opponent, fmr. state Rep. Gary McDowell (D). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o MI-11: In a strange series of events, this seat is currently vacant. Then-Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R), who launched a failed bid for the GOP presidential nomination this year, botched the signatures on his petition to get on the ballot and then abruptly resigned less than a month before the Republican primary. Republicans ended up nominating a libertarian reindeer farmer and Santa impersonator named Kerry Bentivolio (R). The mess gives the Democratic nominee, physician and Canton Township Trustee Syed Taj (D), a shot at what would have otherwise been a safe Republican seat. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R
MINNESOTA
Governor: No election. Gov. Mark Dayton (D) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) will face state Rep. Kurt Bills (R) in her bid for a second term. Polling gives Klobuchar a healthy advantage over the unknown and underfunded Bills. Cook Political Rating: SOLID D House: 2 races to watch out of 8. o MN-6: Former GOP presidential candidate Rep. Michelle Bachmanns (R) faces hotel businessman Jim Graves (D), the strongest challenger Bachmann has faced since being elected in 2006. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o MN-8: Freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) pulled off one of the biggest upsets of 2010 when he defeated 36-year Democratic incumbent James Oberstar (D) in a district that had not been in GOP hands since the Truman administration. Cravaack now faces businessman and former Rep. Rick Nolan (D), who served in the House for three terms in the 1970s. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
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Governor: No election. Gov. Dave Heineman (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Two-term Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is retiring, leaving Nebraska a prime target for Republicans to pick up a Senate seat. Democrats have nominated former Nebraska Gov. and Sen. (and 1992 presidential candidate) Bob Kerrey (D) to try to hold the seat. He faces state Sen. Debra Fischer (R), who, despite little name recognition, will benefit from Nebraskas conservative electorate. Cook Political Rating: LIKELY R House: 0 races to watch out of 3.
NEW MEXICO
Governor: No election. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) is up in 2014. Senate: The retirement of five-term Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) leaves this seat open. New Mexicos Democratic tilt will make it difficult for former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) to top U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich (D), despite both candidates running strong races. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D House: 0 races to watch out of 3.
NEW YORK
Governor: No election. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) laid to rest any doubts about her appeal as a statewide candidate when she won a special election in 2010 with 63 percent of the vote. She has only continued to solidify her position and approaches November with $10.5 million in the bank and a healthy lead over Republican attorney Wendy Long (R). Cook Political Rating: SOLID D House: 7 races to watch out of 27. o NY-1: This will be a rematch between Rep. Tim Bishop (D) and businessman Randy Altschuler (R), whom Bishop narrowly beat in 2010. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D o NY-11: An upset 2010 victor, former FBI agent Rep. Michael Grimm (R) faces real estate investor and former actor Mark Murphy (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o NY-18: Freshman Rep. Nan Hayworth (R), who has made a name for herself with an uncompromising, Tea Party style, faces former Clinton White House Staff Secretary Sean Patrick Maloney (D). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o NY-19: After redistricting, more than half freshman Rep. Chris Gibsons (R) district is new territory. He will have a tough battle against former CIA counsel Julian Schreibman (D). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o NY-21: Rep. Bill Owens (D) won this seat in a special election after then-Rep. John McHugh (R), who had represented the 23rd District since 1993, accepted President Obamas offer to become secretary of the Army. Owens has since benefitted from ideological battles between New York Republicans and the New York Conservative Party. This cycle, conservatives have united behind the 2010 Republican nominee, investment banker Matt Doheny (R). Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D o NY-24: An unlikely winner in 2010, Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) will face an uphill battle in a rematch against former Rep. Dan Maffei (D), who lost to Buerkle by less than 1,000 votes last cycle. Cook Political Rating: LEAN D o NY-27: After then- Rep. Chris Lee (R) resigned following revelations he solicited sex on Craigslist, Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) won this seat in a May 2011 special election by hammering the Ryan budget as a Republican attack on Medicare. She faces former Erie County Executive Chris Collins (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
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Governor: Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) became Governor in Dec. 2010 when then-Gov. John Hoeven resigned to become the states junior U.S. senator. The Democratic nominee, state Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor (D), is unlikely to make this a truly competitive race in this solidly red state in a presidential year. Cook Political Rating: SOLID R Senate: With four-term Sen. Kent Conrad (D) retiring, former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) is giving the states at-large U.S. Rep. Rick Berg (R) a run for his money in a state that is usually red. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 0 races to watch out of 1.
SOUTH DAKOTA
Governor: No election. Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Tim Johnson (D) is up in 2014. Sen. John Thune (R) is up in 2016. House: 0 races to watch out of 1.
TEXAS
Governor: No election. Gov. Rick Perry (R) is up in 2014. Senate: The real race to replace three-term Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) came in the Republican primary, when Tea Party favorite and fmr. Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R) defeated Lt. Gov David Dewhurst (R) in a run-off. Cruz is all but assured victory in November against fmr. state Rep. Paul Sadler (D). Cook Political Rating: SOLID R House: 2 race to watch out of 36. o TX-14: In the seat left open by the retirement of Rep. Ron Paul (R), state Rep. Randy Weber (R) faces Nick Lampson (D), a former U.S. Rep. who has lost and then come back to win a congressional seat twice before. The only other Rep. to serve three non-consecutive House terms? Ron Paul. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o TX-23: Rep. Francisco Canseco (R) snagged this seat in 2010 from five-term Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) to become one of five new Hispanic Republicans elected in the House last cycle. He faces state Rep. Pete Gallego (D). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
WISCONSIN
Presidential battleground: Obama won this state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2008 (though John Kerry barely carried it in 04). This time around, it promises to be much closer, due to Wisconsins Paul Ryan being on the GOP ticket and the partys success in recent elections there. Governor: No election. Gov. Scott Walker (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Wisconsin has a very competitive race with Republicans looking to pick up a seat following the retirement of four-term Sen. Herb Kohl (D). Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) faces Wisconsins popular fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), who survived a divisive ideological primary to emerge as the GOP candidate. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 2 races to watch out of 8. o WI-7: A former lumberjack champion, MTV Real World star and Ashland County prosecutor, Rep. Sean Duffy (R) won this hallowed Democratic seat that was left open by Democratic stalwart and House Appropriations Committee chairman Rep. David Obey (D), who retired after representing the district for 40 years. Duffy faces Pat Kreitlow (D), a former news anchor and former state Senator. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o WI-8: Democrats hope business consultant Jamie Wall (D) can defeat freshman Rep. Reid Ribble (R) in this Green Bay district that tends to get swept away by the national tide. Cook Political Rating: LIKELY R
WYOMING
Governor: No election. Gov. Matt Mead (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. John Barrasso (R) should coast to victory against Democratic nominee Tim Chesnut (D), commissioner of Wyomings Albany County. House: No race to watch out of 1.
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Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah 10:00 PM (4): Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah IOWA
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Presidential battleground: Before the debates began, Obama enjoyed an advantage in the Hawkeye State. Although polls tightened for a time, recent surveys have found Obama to be in a stronger position than Romney. Governor: No election. Gov. Terry Branstad (R) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is up in 2014. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) is up in 2016. House: 3 races to watch out of 4. o IA-2: Rep. Dave Loebsack (D) finds himself in a slightly more competitive district after redistricting. He faces John Archer (R), the well-connected counsel for John Deere. Cook Political Rating: LIKELY D o IA-3: Iowas new 3rd District merges the old 3rd and 4th Districts into one. The race features a showdown between two sitting congressmen: Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) and Rep. Tom Latham (R). Cook Political Rating: LEAN R o IA-4: This race features five-term incumbent and conservative stalwart Rep. Steve King (R) and Christie Vilsack (D), wife of fmr. Iowa Gov. and current Agriculture Secy. Tom Vilsack. Cook Political Rating: LEAN R
MONTANA
Governor: Current Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is term-limited, leaving the states gubernatorial seat open. Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock (D) goes up against fmr. U.S. Rep. Rick Hill (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP Senate: Sen. Jon Tester (D) won this seat in the 2006 Democratic wave. Now he faces a tough challenge from Montanas at-large U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 0 races to watch out of 1.
NEVADA
Presidential battleground: At 11.8% (Sep.), Nevada has the nations highest unemployment rate. But it also has a sizable Latino population, which could boost Obama like it did Harry Reid in 2010. Governor: No election. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is up in 2014. Senate: Sen. Dean Heller (R), a former congressman from Nevada, was appointed to the seat after Sen. John Ensign (R) resigned in advance of a harshly critical Senate Ethics Committee report on his extramarital affair with the wife of a former aide and allegations of hush-money. Heller defends his seat for the first time against Rep. Shelley Berkley (D). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP House: 2 races to watch out of 4. o NV-3: The race between Rep. Joe Heck (R) and state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D) has been brewing for almost a year, and is already living up to its billing as the fiercest, tightest race in the state. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP o NV-4: The 4th District is a new seat in Nevadas delegation. The race features state Sen. Steven Horsford (D) and perennial GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian (R), son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
UTAH
Governor: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) took office in 2009 when then-Governor and future presidential candidate Jon Huntsman (R) resigned to become the U.S. Ambassador to China. Herbert defended the seat in a 2010 special election and now faces Peter Cooke (D), a retired U.S. Army Reserve general and a well-respected businessman. Herbert is expected to win. Cook Political Rating: SOLID R Senate: The primary was much more important than the general election in this race. Six-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) fended off an insurgent primary challenge from Tea Party-backed former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist (R). Hatch is expected to win easily against fmr. state Senate Minority Leader Scott Howell (D). Cook Political Rating: SOLID R
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House: 1 race to watch out of 4. o UT-4: The lone Democrat in Utahs congressional delegation, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) is facing one of the most buzzed-about House candidates this cycle Mia Love (R), the female, Mormon, African-American mayor of Saratoga Springs. Love would make history as the first black female Republican in Congress. Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP
HAWAII
Governor: No election. Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) is up in 2014. Senate: Despite Hawaiis solidly blue leanings, the retirement of three-term Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) has left an open seat with a race turning out to be surprisingly competitive. The Republican nominee is fmr. Gov. Linda Lingle (R), who faces U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono (D). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D House: 0 races to watch out of 2.
IDAHO
Governor: No election. Gov. Butch Otter (R) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Jim Risch (R) is up in 2014. Sen. Mike Crapo (R) is up in 2016. House: 0 races to watch out of 2.
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Governor: No election. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) is up in 2014. Senate: No election. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) is up in 2014. Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is up in 2016. House: 0 races to watch out of 5.
WASHINGTON
Governor: Polls are tight in the race for this gubernatorial seat left open by the retirement of Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire (D). Fmr. Rep. Jay Inslee (D) left the U.S. House to focus on the race against state Attorney General Rob McKenna (R). Cook Political Rating: TOSS UP Senate: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is not expected to have too much trouble beating state Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R) for re-election for a third term. Cook Political Rating: SOLID D House: 1 race to watch out of 10. o WA-1: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) is leaving this seat to run for governor. Self-funding former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene (D) faces off against fmr. state Rep. John Koster (R). Cook Political Rating: LEAN D
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SENATE
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By the numbers
Current breakdown: 51 D, 47 R, 2 Ind. (both caucus with the Democrats) 33 Senate races 11 open seats 1 appointed senator (Dean Heller; R-NV)
STATE Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming PARTY/INCUMBENT R-OPEN-Kyl D-Feinstein I-OPEN-Lieberman D-Carper D-Nelson D-OPEN-Akaka R-OPEN-Lugar R-OPEN-Snowe D-Cardin R-Brown D-Stabenow D-Klobuchar R-Wicker D-McCaskill D-Tester D-OPEN-Nelson R-Heller D-Menendez D-OPEN-Bingaman D-Gillibrand D-OPEN-Conrad D-Brown D-Casey D-Whitehouse R-Corker R-OPEN-Hutchison R-Hatch I-Sanders D-OPEN-Webb D-Cantwell D-Manchin D-OPEN-Kohl R-Barrasso COOK RATING TOSS UP SOLID D TOSS UP SOLID D LEAN D LEAN D TOSS UP TOSS UP SOLID D TOSS UP LIKELY D SOLID D SOLID R LIKELY D TOSS UP LIKELY R TOSS UP LIKELY D LEAN D SOLID D TOSS UP LEAN D LEAN D SOLID D SOLID R SOLID R SOLID R SOLID D TOSS UP SOLID D LIKELY D TOSS UP SOLID R
1. Nebraska (D)* 2. Maine (R)* 3. Montana (D) 4. North Dakota (D)* 5. Massachusetts (R) 6. Wisconsin (D)* 7. Virginia (D)* 8. Nevada (R) 9. Connecticut (D)* 10. Indiana (R)* 11. Ohio (D) 12. Florida (D) 13. New Mexico (D) 14. Missouri (D) 15. Arizona (R)* 16. Hawaii (D)* 17. New Jersey (D) 18. Michigan (D) 19. Pennsylvania (D) 20. Texas (R)*
*Indicates open seat
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About the race: Arizona voters havent elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, but Democrats are pursuing the seat, left open by retiring three-term Sen. Jon Kyl (R). Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake (R), a popular House member from outside Phoenix. Flake will face fmr. U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D). Polls show the race getting increasingly competitive heading into November and things have gotten nasty on the TV airwaves. Past election result: Jon Kyl (R) 53%, Jim Pederson (D) 44%
Born and raised on a ranch in Snowflake, AZ a town named, in part, after his great-great-grandfather. Did missionary work in South Africa and Zimbabwe; later moved to Namibia to run the Foundation for Democracy, a democracy promotion group. Despite a conservative voting record, Flake has broken with the GOP on things like pushing to lift travel restriction to Cuba, opposing sanctions against Sudan and, until Flake ran for Senate, supporting immigration reform.
The son of Puerto Rican immigrants, Carmona grew up poor in Harlem. Dropped out of high school but got his GED while serving in the Army. Awarded two Bronze Stars, two Purple Hearts, and a combat medical badge for his service as a combat medic with Army Special Forces in Vietnam. Once rescued a man on a cliff by rappelling from a helicopter.
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CALIFORNIA (D-Feinstein)
About the race: Three-term Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) should have no trouble winning a fourth Senate term over challenger Elizabeth Emken (R), a former candidate for U.S. House and former executive at the autism advocacy group, Autism Speaks. Past election result: Dianne Feinstein (D) 59%, Dick Mountjoy (R) 35%
After Feinstein sent him a paper she wrote on the justice system, CA Gov. Pat Brown appointed her to the state Womens Parole Board when she was just 27 years old. Feinstein, the first female chair of the Sen. Intel. Committee, is among lawmakers who vowed to pursue leaks they believe came from the Obama administration on the use of drones and cyber wars. Feinstein was in San Franciscos City Hall when Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk were murdered Feinstein was the person who found Milks body.
Became an autism activist after her son, Alex, was diagnosed with autism. Ran unsuccessfully in 2010 for Congress in California's 11th District, finishing last among four candidates in the GOP primary.
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#9 CONNECTICUT (I-Open-Lieberman)
About the race: Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy (D) faces off against 2010 Senate nominee and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R), who showed a willingness to self-fund by spending millions of her own money in her 2010 run for senate. This race is to fill the open seat of retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I). Lieberman ran as an independent but caucuses with the Democrats, making Connecticut a possible pickup for Republicans. Past election results: 2006: Joe Lieberman (I) 50%, Ned Lamont (D) 40%, Alan Schlesinger (R) 10% 2010: Richard Blumenthal (D) 55%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
After college, lived in a converted Southington, CT funeral home that later became the basis for the 2009 horror film, The Haunting of Connecticut. First elected to Congress in 2006, defeating 24-year-incumbent Rep. Nancy Johnson (R). Both sides of Murphys family go back four generations in Connecticut.
Ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2010, losing to Sen. Dick Blumenthal (D), 55% to 43% despite significantly outspending him. Wife of Vince McMahon, founder of the former World Wrestling Federation, now World Wrestling Entertainment. The McMahons filed for bankruptcy decades ago for a failed non-wrestling business. Faced criticism for lax drug testing in WWE; accused of tipping off a doctor of an FBI steroid investigation.
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DELAWARE (D-Carper)
About the race: Two-term incumbent Sen. Tom Carper (D) should have no trouble fending off a challenge from businessman Kevin Wade (R). Past election result: Tom Carper (D) 70%, Jan Ting (R) 29%
During Vietnam, served as a Navy mission commander piloting planes that hunted submarines. Co-Chair of the moderate group, Third Way. During college worked on the 1968 presidential campaign of Sen. Eugene McCarthy.
Grew up in a PA factory town and went to work in a steel mill three days after his high school graduation. Worked in DuPonts engineering department during college. Served as New Castle Cty. Chairman for Rudy Giulianis 2008 presidential campaign.
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About the race: Two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) faces current Rep. Connie Mack (R), known for being married to Sonny Bonos widow, Rep. Mary Bono (R), and for being the great-grandson of Cornelius McGillicuddy, who owned and managed the Philadelphia Athletics for 50 years. Past election result: Bill Nelson (D) 60%, Katherine Harris (R) 38%
In Jan. 1986, Nelson spent six days orbiting Earth as a payload specialist aboard the space shuttle Columbia just two weeks before the space shuttle Challenger exploded during takeoff. Nelsons father, a lawyer and investor in Melbourne, FL, died when Nelson was 14 years old.
Great-grandson of Cornelius McGillicuddy, longtime owner and manager of the Philadelphia Athletics (now the Oakland Athletics). Husband of Rep. Mary Bono-Mack, GOP congresswoman from Calif. and widow of Sonny Bono. His father Connie Mack III held the same Congressional seat for three terms in the 1980s and went on to be U.S. senator. The man who won the seat after Mack III retired is Connies opponent in this race Sen. Bill Nelson.
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About the race: Despite Hawaiis solidly blue leanings, the retirement of three-term Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) has left an open seat with a race that is turning out to be surprisingly competitive. The Republican nominee is fmr. Gov. Linda Lingle (R), who faces U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono (D). Past election result: Daniel Akaka (D) 61%, Cynthia Thielen (R) 37%
Election day is just 3 days after her 65th birthday Born in Fukushima, Japan and came to Hawaii when she was 8 years old First female immigrant of Asian ancestry to be sworn into Congressional office. Would be the first Buddhist elected to the U.S. Senate.
Lingle beat Rep. Hirono in Hawaiis 2002 race for governor. First female governor in Hawaii history and the only Republican elected there in the last 50 years. As part of this race, secured her own cable channel sandwiched between CNN and FOX that runs around-theclock information on Lingle and her campaign.
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About the race: About the race: Tea Party-backed Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) defeated sixterm incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar (R) in an insurgent primary battle. But because of Mourdocks uncompromising style, moderate Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly has led narrowly in several polls in this conservative-leaning state. Mourdock recently stirred controversy in a debate by saying that even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that is something that God intended to happen. Mourdock later tried to clarify, saying he did not think God intended for rape to happen. Mourdocks non-incumbent, nontraditional status Lugar hasnt even appeared with Mourdock or cut an ad for him and the controversial remark give the Democratic nominee, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), a shot at picking up the seat. Past election result: Richard Lugar (R) 87%, Steve Osborn (Lib) 13%
Shares a birthday (Sept. 29) with Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D), who is up for election this year. Donnelly is anti-abortion, opposes same sex marriage and is part of the fiscally conservative Democratic Blue Dog Coalition. Owned and operated a printing and rubber stamp company for 10 years.
Defeated six-term Sen. Dick Lugar (R) 61% to 49% in the states Republican primary back in May. Mourdock is a pilot, has run in eight marathons, and used to build and race "open modified" race cars. Before being elected treasurer, lost three races for Congress, between 1988 and 1992. Filed a lawsuit to block the Chrysler auto bailout that went all the way to the Supreme Court.
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#2 MAINE (R-Open-Snowe)
About the race: With three-term Sen. Olympic Snowe (R) retiring, Maine could determine the balance of power in the Senate. Former two-term Gov. Angus King (I) is running as an independent and currently leads in statewide polls. But King has said he will not decide which party hell caucus with until he is elected. National Democrats are confident King will caucus with them and are not backing the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Cynthia Dill (D). The Republican nominee, Maine Secretary of State Charlie Summers (R), is hoping King and Dill will split enough votes to leave him on top. Past election result: Olympia Snowe (R) 74%, Jean Hay Bright (D) 21%, William Slavick (I) 5%
Spent almost 20 years as host of the public affairs show Maine Watch on the Maine Public Broadcasting Network. After his governorship, took an 15,000mile RV trip through 34 states with his wife and two of his kids. King, an independent, has not announced which party he will caucus with. But national Democrats are sitting the race out, hoping he will caucus with them.
His father ran a hotel and restaurant in Illinois, where Summers worked growing up. His first wife died in a car accident in 1982 after the couple moved to Maine from Illinois, leaving him to raise their two children. Served in Iraq and Afghanistan with the U.S. Navy Reserve. In Afghanistan, served as asst. to Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Wife, Ruth, is running for his previous
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Founded Friends of the Maine Woods in 2011, a state group advocating for the study and creation of a Maine Woods National Park. Supports the presidents health care overhaul, the Affordable Care Act, but thinks it should have gone even further by implementing a single-payer system. National Democrats have not backed Dill, hoping King will caucus with them if he wins.
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MARYLAND (D-Cardin)
About the race: Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) should have no problem heading off challenger Dan Bongino (R), a former Secret Service agent. Past election result: Ben Cardin (D) 54%, Michael Steele 44%
In his 2006 Senate campaign, defeated then-Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R), who went on to head the Republican National Committee for two years following the 2008 election. The son and nephew of state legislators, Cardin was elected to the state House at the age of 23as soon as he was eligible to run. Cardin was part of the House committee that brought ethics charges against then-Speaker Newt Gingrich, which resulted in Gingrich eventually being reprimanded and penalized $300,000 for admitted ethics violations.
Met his wife, Paula, on a blind date at a New York restaurant two weeks before September 11, 2001. Served in the presidential protection division for President Bush and President Obama.
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#5 MASSACHUSETTS (R-Brown)
About the race: No Senate race this cycle is as high profile as the Bay States race for Ted Kennedys old seat. The race is also shaping up to be the most expensive Senate race in Massachusetts history. Sen. Scott Brown (R), who won an upset victory in a January 2010 special election for the seat, faces Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren (D), known for her role in establishing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Past election result (2010 Special): Scott Brown (R) 52%, Martha Coakley (D)
Revealed in his 2011 memoir, "Against All Odds," that he had been molested as a boy at a summer camp on Cape Cod. Scored nearly 1,000 points on the Tufts University basketball team. Won a 2010 special election to fill the seat left vacant by the death of longtime Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy. Helped pay his law school bills by posing for a centerfold in the June 1982 edition of Cosmopolitan, a gig he got after his sister entered him into a contest to appear in the magazine. (Link: http://bit.ly/3vJ3WL)
Warrens father sold carpeting and worked as a maintenance man; her mother answered phones at Sears. Warren began waiting tables in her aunt's Mexican restaurant when she was 13. Headed the Congressional Oversight Panel for TARP, a panel charged with reviewing the nation's financial markets and regulatory system and reporting back to Congress. Tapped by Pres. Obama to set up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but Republicans blocked her from heading the agency.
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About the race: Two-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) showed anemic approval ratings for months, giving Republicans and former Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R) optimism that Michigan could be a potential pickup this cycle. But Hoekstra has failed to gain ground on Stabenow and unless the presidential race gets more competitive in Michigan, Stabenow should enjoy a strong showing in November. Past election result: Debbie Stabenow (D) 57%, Mike Bouchard (R) 41%
Chair of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee. Grew up in Clare, MI where her father was an Oldsmobile dealer and her mother was a nurse. As a young woman, marched in antiwar rallies during Vietnam and volunteered for George McGoverns 1972 presidential campaign.
Born in Groningen, Netherlands; immigrated to the United States with his parents in 1957. Ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for Michigan governor in 2010. A reliable conservative, Hoekstra helped develop the GOP's 1994 Contract with America.
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MINNESOTA (D-Klobuchar)
About the race: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) will face state Rep. Kurt Bills (R) in her bid for a second term. Polling gives Klobuchar a healthy advantage over the unknown and underfunded Bills. Past election result: Amy Klobuchar 58%, Mark Kennedy (R) 38%
Daughter of longtime Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Klobuchar. Struck a rare alliance with Rep. Michele Bachmann supporting federal funding for a replacement to the St. Croix River Bridge connecting Minnesota and Wisconsin at Stillwater. Has made a point to visit each of the state's 87 counties during every year of her Senate term. Her first job was working as a carhop at A&W.
Longtime economics teacher and wrestling coach at Rosemount High School. Spoke in support of Ron Paul during the GOP presidential primaries. Made a late entrance into the Senate race after it failed to attract a number of big-name GOP prospects including former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Sen. Norm Coleman, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.
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MISSISSIPPI (R-Wicker)
About the race: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) will have little trouble fending off a challenge from Al Gore Jr. (D), a retired Methodist minister and Army chaplain said to be a distant relative of Vice President Al Gore. Past election result: Roger Wicker (R) 55%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 45%
Appointed to the Senate in late 2007 by Gov. Haley Barbour to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Trent Lott. Served as a U.S. House page and campaign worker in the first congressional race of Thad Cochran, now his fellow U.S. Senator from Mississippi. Served as student body president at Ole Miss during college.
Albert Gore, Jr. (D), fmr. Oktibbeha Cty. Dem. Party chair
Age: 82, b. April 28, 1930, Toccopola, MS Home: Starkville, MS Education: Millsaps College (B.A.); Duke University (M.Div.) Religion: Methodist Family: First wife deceased; Remarried (Bobbie); 2 children, 2 stepchildren Military: Col. (Ret.), Chaplain, U.S. Army Spc. Forces Career: Fmr. Chmn., Oktibbeha Cty. Dem. Party; Retired Methodist minister
Says he thinks he is distantly related to former Vice President Al Gore, but does not know how. Has said he is not accepting donations from PACs and is running a "low-key campaign," mostly using his own money. At 82 years old, Gore is making his first run for elected office.
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About the race: In one of the countrys most talked-about Senate races, Republicans had Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) as one of their top targets for Senate pickups until her challenger, U.S. Rep. Todd Akin (R), set off a firestorm after using the phrase legitimate rape in an interview discussing abortion. Past election result: Claire McCaskill (D) 50%, Jim Talent (R) 47%
McCaskills father served for a time as state insurance commissioner and her mother was the first female city council member in the town of Columbia, MO. Considered a potential running mate for President Obama in 2008. Lost a 2004 gubernatorial race to GOP Secy. of State, Matt Blunt (R), son of Sen. Roy Blunt (R). The elder Blunt is now her colleague in the Senate.
Still lives in his boyhood home, a 60year-old farmhouse in Town and Country, MO. Ignored calls to quit the race from Republicans, including Mitt Romney and all five living Republicans who have represented Missouri in the U.S. Senate. Started in politics in 1987, when Gov. John Ashcroft (R) (and future U.S. Atty. Gen.) appointed him to the Bicentennial Commission of the U.S. Constitution.
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#3 MONTANA (D-Tester)
About the race: Sen. Jon Tester (D) won this seat in the 2006 Democratic wave. Now he faces a tough challenge from Montanas at-large U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R). Past election result: Jon Tester 49%, Conrad Burns (R) 48%
Grew up on the same prairie land his grandparents homesteaded almost a century ago. Lost three fingers on his left hand in a meat grinder accident as a child. His hometown, Big Sandy, is home to Big Bud 747, the largest farm tractor in the world. Still runs his family's farm, which grows organic wheat, barley, lentils, peas, millet, buckwheat, alfalfa and hay.
Began his political career right out of college as a staffer for Montana Rep. Ron Marlenee (R) in 1979. Rehbergs father, Jack, is a former legislator and longtime GOP activist involved in redrawing legislative districts after the 1990 and 2000 census counts. This is Rehbergs second run for the U.S. Senate; he lost a close race in 1996 to incumbent Sen. Max Baucus.
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About the race: Two-term Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is retiring, leaving Nebraska a prime target for Republicans to pick up a Senate seat. Democrats have nominated former Nebraska Gov. and Sen. (and 1992 presidential candidate) Bob Kerrey (D) to try to hold the seat. He faces state Sen. Debra Fischer (R), who, despite little name recognition, will benefit from Nebraskas conservative electorate. Past election result: Ben Nelson (D) 64%, Pete Rickets (R) 36%
As a Navy SEAL in Vietnam, directed an attack after losing part of his right leg in a grenade blast, for which he was awarded the Medal of Honor. Was a registered Republican for 14 years but switched to the Democratic Party in 1978. Served on the 9/11 Commission. GOP Super PACs have already spent more than $1 million on ads criticizing Kerreys recent residency in New York City. Dated actress Debra Winger for a time while he was Nebraska Governor.
Known for lining up numerous advocates to speak at hearings in favor of bills she supported, who some lawmakers dubbed "Fischer's army." Beat out state Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg in the GOP primary despite both being better known and better financed. In the primary, garnered endorsements from Sarah Palin. Marco Rubio, John McCain and Herman Cain.
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#8 NEVADA (R-Heller)
About the race: Sen. Dean Heller (R), a former congressman from Nevada, was appointed to the seat after Sen. John Ensign (R) resigned in advance of a harshly critical Senate Ethics Committee report on his extramarital affair with the wife of a former aide and allegations of hush-money. Heller defends his seat for the first time against Rep. Shelley Berkley (D). Past election result: John Ensign (R) 55%, Jack Carter (D) 41%
Got his first taste of politics as a boy when his newspaper route included deliveries at the Nevada state Capitol in Carson City. In his first House primary in 2006, Heller defeated Sharron Angle, who went on to challenge Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid in 2010. Heller is the only appointed Senator facing his first election this cycle.
Born on Manhattans Lower East Side but moved to Las Vegas as a child. Faced controversy in her first congressional race over a taped phone conversation in which she seemed to advise Sands owner Sheldon Adelson, now a GOP mega-donor, to trade campaign contributions for favors.
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About the race: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is unlikely to face too much resistance despite having a strong opponent in state Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R). Past election result: Robert Menendez (D) 53%, Thomas Kean Jr. (R) 44%
Appointed to the Senate in 2006 by then-Gov. Jon Corzine, who vacated the seat to become governor. As 2010 chair of the committee in charge of electing Democrats to the Senate, Menendez is credited with holding the Democratic Senate majority despite an overwhelming Republican wave. Got into politics early, winning election to the Union City, NJ school board at age 20.
Chaired Chris Christies 2009 campaign for governor and served as New Jersey state chair for Mitt Romneys 2008 presidential campaign. A close ally of Gov. Christie, Kyrillos is a longtime New Jersey Republican insider. Ran for U.S. House in 1992, but lost. Mitt Romney headlined a fundraiser for Kyrillos in April. Made headlines for vocally opposing reality TV star Nicole 'Snooki' Polizzi's 2011 appearance at Rutgers University, for which she was paid $32,000.
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About the race: The retirement of five-term Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) leaves this seat open. New Mexicos Democratic tilt will make it difficult for former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) to top U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich (D), despite both candidates running strong races. Past election result: Jeff Bingaman (D) 71%, Allen McCulloch (R) 29%
The son of an electrician and factory worker, Heinrich has positioned himself as a defender of working-class New Mexicans in this campaign. Was elected in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District in 2008, the first Democrat to win the Albuquerque-area district in 40 years. After college, worked for a time running the Cottonwood Gulch Foundation, which runs wilderness adventure expeditions in the Southwest.
Graduated from the Air Force Academy and went on to be a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford. Ran unsuccessfully to fill the seat of retiring Senator Pete Domenici (R) in 2008, but lost in a bruising Republican primary to congressman Steve Pearce. Served on the National Security Council during the George H.W. Bush administration before she turned 30
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About the race: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) laid to rest any doubts about her appeal as a statewide candidate when she won a special election in 2010 with 63 percent of the vote. She has only continued to solidify her position and approaches November with $10.5 million in the bank and a healthy lead over Republican attorney Wendy Long (R). Past election result: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 63%, Joseph DioGuardi (R) 35%
Sixth member of Congress to have a child while serving Appointed by Gov. David Paterson to fill Hillary Clintons Senate seat in 2009 Father is an attorney and lobbyist with ties to a top aide to former Gov. George Pataki (R); grandmother was a prominent Democratic activist in Albany Briefly served as a special counsel for Housing and Urban Development Secretary Andrew Cuomo
Teaches Roman Catholic catechism in New York City for the Narnia program. Member of the New York City Parks Mounted Auxiliary Unit. As part of her work with the Judicial Confirmation Network, lobbied heavily in favor of confirming Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito as well as against the confirmation of Justice Sonia Sotomayor.
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About the race: With four-term Sen. Kent Conrad (D) retiring, former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) is giving the states at-large U.S. Rep. Rick Berg (R) a run for his money in a state that is usually dependably red. Past election result: Kent Conrad (D) 69%, Dwight Grotberg (R) 30%
Has six brothers and sisters, including her brother Joel, a talk radio host in Fargo, ND and a former Dem. state sen. Seeking to replace retiring 26-year Sen. Kent Conrad (D) . She also replaced him as tax commissioner in 1986 when he first won this Senate seat. Heitkamp's Senate bid is the sixth statewide race of her career. Her first race was in 1984, when she lost to incumbent state auditor Robert Peterson (R).
Went to No. Dakota St. College on a wrestling scholarship. Spent his summers growing up hauling bales, custom harvesting, and working cattle. Decided to run for Congress soon after the House passed the health care overhaul bill in Nov. 2009.
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About the race: Incumbent first-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faces a tough challenge from state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R). Brown enjoys an advantage over Mandel, an effective fundraiser and campaigner, but the seat is not safe by any measure given how close the presidential race is in Ohio and given the fact that outside Republican groups are spending lots of money on advertising in this Senate race. Past election result: Sherrod Brown (D) 56%, Mike DeWine (R) 44%
Turns 60 years old the Friday after the election. Got his interest in politics from his mother, Emily, who grew up in Georgia and was active in the civil rights movement through her work as the president of the local YWCA. His father, Charles Brown, was a registered Republican until Sen. Brown ran for public office.
In his eight years in the Marine Corps Reserves, served two tours in Iraqs Anbar Province as an Intelligence Specialist. Grandson of Jewish immigrants who braved World War II persecution in Poland and Italy. Played quarterback in high school for Beachwood High School in Cleveland.
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About the race: Sen. Bob Casey (D) appeared to be in good shape in his re-election bid, but the Republican candidate, Tom Smith (R), is a self-made coal businessman who has been willing to put millions of his own money into the campaign. The race has quietly become competitive, with polls showing the race within single digits going into November. Past election result: Robert Casey, Jr. (D) 59%, Rick Santorum (R) 41%
Delivered a crushing 18-point defeat to future presidential candidate Sen. Rick Santorum (R) in the 2006 race for this seat. Grew up in the same area of Scranton, PA as Vice President Joe Biden, though Biden moved away two years before Caseys birth. Caseys father, Robert Casey Sr., served two terms as Pennsylvania Governor. After college, taught fifth grade and coached eighth grade basketball in an inner-city Philadelphia school for the Jesuit Volunteer Corps.
After he sold his coal businesses in 2010, returned to the family farm about 40 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, where he still lives. Spent millions of his own money to win a five-way Republican primary in April. Despite being a longtime conservative, Smith didn't join the Republican Party until two months before he declared his Senate candidacy.
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About the race: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) should not have too much trouble defeating his Republican challenger, software executive Barry Hinckley (R). Past election result: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 54%, Lincoln Chaffee 46%
Whitehouse is a descendant of Charles Crocker, one of Californias Big Four men who built the Central Pacific Railroad. With diplomats for a father and grandfather, Whitehouse spent much of his upbringing overseas in countries like Cambodia, South Africa and the Philippines. Ran for governor in 2002, but lost in the Democratic primary by 926 votes.
Named one of Boston Bus. Journal's "40 under 40" successful businessmen in 2005. A descendant of Col. James Barrett, who commanded the Minutemen that fought the British at Concord. In July 2011, rode his bicycle through all 39 of Rhode Island's cities and towns on a "Ride4Jobs" to draw attention to what he calls a "jobs crisis." An avid pilot and former professional sailboat racer.
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TENNESSEE (R-Corker)
About the race: Sen. Bob Corker (R), who narrowly beat then-U.S. Rep. Harold Ford (D) for this Senate seat in 2006, should have no trouble this time around. The Democratic nominee, self-described author and anti-gay rights activist Mark Clayton (D), has been disavowed by the state Democratic Party for his affiliation with a D.C.-based advocacy group that the Southern Poverty Law Center has labeled an active anti-gay group. Past election result: Bob Corker (R) 51%, Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 48%
At age 40, sold the successful construction company he founded just a few years out of college. Narrowly defeated Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. 51% to 48% in the 2006 race for this seat. Helped create Chattanooga Neighborhood Enterprise, a non-profit organization designed to get lowincome families into affordable housing. Jobs growing up included picking up trash, bagging ice and working construction.
Began training to be an aircraft electrician in the U.S. Army Reserve but left. Lives in a 1920s-era farmhouse in Whites Creek, TN with his dog, Saint. Has been disavowed by the state party for his role as an unpaid Vice President of the group Public Advocate of the United States, which is labeled an antigay group by the Southern Poverty Law Center.
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About the race: The real race to replace three-term Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) came in the Republican primary, when Tea Party favorite and fmr. Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R) defeated Lt. Gov David Dewhurst (R) in a run-off. Cruz is all but assured victory in November against fmr. state Rep. Paul Sadler (D). Past election result: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 62%, Barbara Radnofsky (D) 36%
Born in Calgary in the Canadian province of Alberta, where his parents worked in the oil industry. His father, Rafael, was born in Cuba and fought with Fidel Castro's rebels before they triumphed and embraced communism. At Harvard Law, was editor of the Law Review and founder of the Latino Law Review.
A moderate who served as chair of the House Public Education Committee in the Texas statehouse, Sadler was on Texas Monthly's "10 Best" list in four of the six sessions he served. Worked with then-Gov. George W. Bush while serving in the Texas statehouse and drew praise from him for effective work.
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UTAH (R-Hatch)
About the race: The primary was much more important than the general election in this race. Six-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) fended off an insurgent primary challenge from Tea Party-backed former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist (R). Hatch is expected to win easily against fmr. state Senate Minority Leader Scott Howell (D). Past election result: Orrin Hatch (R) 63%, Pete Ashdown (D) 31%
Hatchs family lost their home during the Great Depression and lived for a time in a shelter with no plumbing made of salvaged wood and metal. Worked his way through BYU as a janitor a metal lather (his fathers profession). Hatch is the longest serving Republican in the Senate other than Richard Lugar (IN), who is leaving the Senate after suffering a primary defeat earlier this year.
The son of educators, Howells father was a school principal and his mother a kindergarten teacher. Went to junior college on a football scholarship before spending two years in England as a Mormon missionary. Hired during his college junior year, Howell spent 34 years with IBM.
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VERMONT (I-Sanders)
About the race: First-term incumbent Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) runs as an independent but caucuses with Democrats. As such, no Democrat even filed to challenge him in November. Sanders will face John MacGovern (R), a former member of the Massachusetts state legislature. Past election result: Bernie Sanders (I) 65%, Richard Tarrant (R) 32%
Grew up in the Flatbush section of Brooklyn, the son of a paint salesman who emigrated from Poland; his mother died when he was a teenager. Moved to Vermont as part of the hippie migration of 1968 and worked as a carpenter. In 1972, Sanders ran for U.S. Senate in Vermont as part of the socialist Liberty Union Party but lost, winning just 2% of the vote.
Born in Cambridge, MA and raised on a dairy farm in Harvard, MA. Self-described co-founder of conservative Dartmouth newspaper, The Dartmouth Review. Currently runs the Hanover Institute, which he describes as an independent group of Dartmouth alumni formed to protect their voice in an expanded governing board.
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#7 VIRGINIA (D-Open-Webb)
About the race: Two former Virginia governors face off for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D) in what has emerged as one of the nations most hotly contested Senate races. George Allen (R) actually used to hold the Senate seat hes currently seeking but lost to Sen. Webb in 2006. Allen blew a double digit lead in the polls following the release of a videotape of an Allen campaign rally during which he called a Webb campaign tracker of Indian descent the name macaca, a term many perceived as a racial slur. Past election result: Jim Webb (D) 50%, George Allen (R) 49%
Took a nine-month break midway through Harvard Law School to teach at a Jesuit mission in Honduras. His wife, Anne Holton, is the daughter of Linwood Holton, Virginias first Republican governor since Reconstruction.
One of only seven Virginians to serve as governor and U.S. Senator. Others include Pres. James Monroe and current Sen. Mark Warner (D). Thought to be a 2008 presidential hopeful before losing his Senate seat in 2006. Upset by current Sen. Jim Webb (D) in 2006 after Allen was videotaped at a rally calling a Webb campaign tracker of Indian descent the name macaca, which many perceived as a racial slur.
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WASHINGTON (D-Cantwell)
About the race: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is not expected to have too much trouble beating state Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R) for re-election for a third term. Past election result: Maria Cantwell (D) 57%, Mike McGavick (R) 40%
Cantwells father Paul was a construction worker, county commissioner, city councilman and state legislator in Indianapolis, where she grew up. Worked for the 1982 gubernatorial campaign of Cleveland mayor and future TV personality Jerry Springer. After serving in the U.S. House, joined a startup that would become RealNetworks and make her a millionaire.
During college, worked two summers as a Forestry Sciences Aid helping conduct fire ecosystem research with the U.S. Forest Service. After college, spent 12 months as a volunteer with a group of Jesuit Priests in Beira, Mozambique. Met his wife Eleanor while serving as an advisor on a counternarcotics team in Afghanistans Helmand province.
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About the race: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) faces Republican businessman John Raese (R), whom Manchin defeated 53% to 43% in a 2010 special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D). Past election result: Joe Manchin 53%, John Raese (R) 43%
Went to West Virginia U. on a football scholarship but his career was cut short because of injury. Chair of the National Governors Association. As governor, signed into law stricter coal-mining standards. Is not backing either President Obama or Governor Romney in the presidential election.
This race is a rematch: Raese lost to Manchin 53% to 43% in a 2010 special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (R). Inherited his mining companies from his late grandmother. Homes in Morgantown, WV; Telluride, CO; and Palm Beach, FL. Father, Richard Raese, coached West Virginia U. to the NIT college basketball championship in 1942. Ran for Senate in 1984 and in 2006 and for governor in 1988.
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#6 WISCONSIN (D-Open-Kohl)
About the race: Wisconsin has a very competitive race with Republicans looking to pick up a seat following the retirement of four-term Sen. Herb Kohl (D). Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) faces Wisconsins popular fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), who survived a divisive ideological primary to emerge as the GOP candidate. Past election result: Herb Kohl (D) 67%, Robert Lorge (R) 29%
Elected to the Wisconsin Assembly at 30 years old, the youngest woman in state legislature. First openly gay female non-incumbent elected to Congress and the first woman elected to the U.S. House by Wisconsin voters. In 2011, joined protesters in Madison objecting to Republican Gov. Scott Walker's proposal curbing collective bargaining rights for public workers.
Grew up in Elroy, WI, where his father ran a gas station and general store and his mother taught school. In 1979, Thompson ran for Congress in Wisconsins 6th District but was defeated in the GOP primary by Tom Petri, who holds the seat still today. As Wisconsin Governor, created the states popular BadgerCare program, which provides low-cost medical and prescription drug benefits to seniors.
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WYOMING (R-Barrasso)
About the race: Sen. John Barrasso (R) should coast to victory against Democratic nominee Tim Chesnut (D), commissioner of Wyomings Albany County. Past election result: John Barrasso (R) 73%, Nick Carter (D) 27%
Grew up in Reading, Pa., the son of a World War II veteran who made a living as a cement finisher. Growing up, Barrassos father took the family to Washington every four years for the presidents inauguration. After moving his medical practice to Wyoming in the 1980s, Barraso also was a local radio and television personality, dispensing practical medical advice on news programs and in public service announcements.
Has multiple sclerosis, which Chesnut says often requires him to use a wheelchair. Running under the slogan "Chesnut is the best nut for Senate." Has been a member of 11 different boards and commissions, including Guthrie Family Foundation in Laramie and Albany County Fair Board.
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HOUSE
76
HOUSE OVERVIEW
After Republicans took back control of the U.S. House in 2010 by winning a modern-era record 63 seats, Democrats are hoping to cut into that majority. Currently, Republicans hold a 240-190 majority (five House seats are vacant). Democrats need a net-gain of 25 seats to win control of the chamber.
Analysts, however, predict that is unlikely to happen. Democrats are instead favored to pick up a handful of seats, anywhere from mid-single digits to lowteens on a very good day. Democrats are on offense in more seats than Republicans, but Republicans are likely to pick off some Democratic seats as well, making the number of seats Democrats have to win closer to 35 to 40.
There are 25 Republican-held seats rated toss up or worse, while there are just 16 seats in the same position for Democrats.
Every 10 years, states redraw their congressional-seat boundaries. That has meant some incumbent-versus-incumbent races, but it hasnt impacted the playing field very much in one partisan direction or another. At the outset of redistricting, it was thought that Republicans could gain an advantage, but it turned out that Democrats wound up with a very slight one, perhaps helping a handful of their seats. By the numbers: Current breakdown: 240 R, 190 D, 5 vacancies (2R, 3D) 430 members up for re-election (all seats are up every two years but five House seats are currently vacant) 218 needed for control 25 is the net number of seats Democrats need to net to take back the House
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GOVERNORS
78
GOVERNORS OVERVIEW
Republicans control 29 governorships across the country with Democrats holding 20 and an independent in control of one (Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island).
This year, there are 11 total governors races eight of which are currently held by Democrats, three by Republicans. According to the Cook Political Report, the GOP is favored to pick up one or two more governorships. The races to watch: North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire, and Washington state. Of those, North Carolina is the most likely pick-up opportunity for Republicans with the candidate there ahead by double-digits in most polling. The races in Montana and New Hampshire are dead heats. And in Washington state, the Republican candidate has the challenge of needing to outperform the Republican presidential standard-bearer.
Every gubernatorial race rated competitive this cycle by the Cook Political Report is over a seat currently held by a Democrat.
By the numbers: Current breakdown: 29 R, 20 D, 1 I 11 Governors races 6 competitive races 5 open seats STATE Delaware Indiana Missouri Montana New Hampshire North Carolina North Dakota Utah Vermont Washington West Virginia PARTY/INCUMBENT D-Markell R-OPEN-Daniels D-Nixon D-OPEN-Schweitzer D-OPEN-Lynch D-OPEN-Perdue R-Dalrymple R-Herbert D-Shumlin D-OPEN-Gregoire D-Tomblin COOK RATING SOLID D LIKELY R LEAN D TOSS UP TOSS UP LEAN R SOLID R SOLID R SOLID D TOSS UP LEAN D
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DELAWARE (D-Markell)
About the race: Incumbent Gov. Jack Markell (D) faces nominal opposition from Republican Jeff Cragg (R), a Wilmington small business owner. Past election result: Jack Markell (D) 68%, William Lee (R) 32%
Coined the name Nextel, while helping grow the telecom startup. Won the Democratic nomination for governor in 2008 despite not having the backing of the state party establishment. Under Markell, Delaware, along with Tennessee, won one of the first grants under the Race to the Top education reform plan.
Played defensive tackle on the Carleton College football team. In addition to owning a Mailboxes, Etc. business in Wilmington, he has bought and rehabilitated real estate properties. Ran for state insurance commissioner in 2004 but withdrew after the state party endorsed another candidate.
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INDIANA (R-Open-Daniels)
About the race: Conservative star Mike Pence (R) is leaving the House of Representatives to run for Indiana governor. He faces John Gregg (D), former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives. The seat is open due to term limits on current Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). Past election result: Mitch Daniels 58%, Jill Thompson 40%
For a time, broadcast The Mike Pence Show, a syndicated conservative talkradio program. One of just 25 House Republicans to oppose the 2003 GOP Medicare prescription drug bill. A longtime conservative, Pence quickly joined the House Tea Party Caucus when it formed in 2010. Challenged John Boehner for Republican leader after the 2006 midterms. Speculated to be a potential 2012 (or 2016) presidential candidate.
Diagnosed with and treated for prostate cancer in 2004. As of May of this year, he was cancer-free. Represents a strong but dwindling population of southern Indiana Democrats who are social conservatives and economic populists. In an attempt to balance his ticket, picked one of Indianas most liberal lawmakers, state Sen. Min. Ldr. Vi Simpson, as his running mate.
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MISSOURI (D-Nixon)
About the race: Incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon (D) is slightly favored to fend off a challenge from self-made businessman Dave Spence (R). Past election result: Jay Nixon (D) 58%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 39%
Growing up in DeSoto, MO, Nixons mother was president of the DeSoto school board and his father was the citys mayor. Ran twice unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 1988 and 1998. Touts a number of conservatives points in this campaign including $1.8 billion in spending cuts and adamant opposition to new taxes Played an active role in coordinating the response to the deadly tornado that hit Joplin in May 2011.
Bought the plastic bottle manufacturer Alpha Packaging when he was 26 years old and grew it significantly until leaving in 2011 to run for governor. Made extra money mowing lawns before going to work at age 14 sweeping floors at his fathers business. His fathers house was auctioned off to pay off a loan after his fathers business went under while Spence was growing up.
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MONTANA (D-Open-Schweitzer)
About the race: Current Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is term-limited, leaving the states gubernatorial seat open. Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock (D) goes up against fmr. U.S. Rep. Rick Hill (R) is what has become a tight race. Past election result: Brian Schweitzer (D) 65%, Roy Brown (R) 33%
Student body president at Helena High School. As a child, delivered the newspaper to the governors mansion as part of his paper route. Gained national attention for his role in defending Montana limits on corporate political spending. Decided not to sign a brief against the 2010 Affordable Care Act, which a number of other attorneys general signed.
Overcame a bought of polio as a child. Often speaks about growing up in a small apartment in the back of his fathers repair shop. Faced an uphill fundraising battle in the general election after spending much of his campaign funds in a tough seven-way Republican primary.
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About the race: New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) is retiring, setting up a close race between former state Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and attorney and 2010 Senate nominee Ovide Lamontagne (R) to replace him. Past election result (2010): John Lynch (D) 53%, John Stephen (R) 45%
Mother to an adult son (Ben) with cerebral palsy. Her husband Tom is principal of the famous prep school Phillips Exeter Academy. While serving in the New Hampshire senate, played a large part in the states 2009 law legalizing same-sex unions.
With his wife Bettie, Lamontagne is father to an adult, special needs foster son. After college, taught high school in Maryland and Wyoming. Lost a 1996 bid for governor to nowSen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Lost by only 1,500 votes in the 2010 GOP Senate primary to current New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R).
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About the race: Current North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue (D) opted not to seek re-election, leaving the gubernatorial seat open. The Republican nominee is former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R), who narrowly lost the 2008 gubernatorial contest. The Democratic nominee is Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (D). Past election result: Bev Perdue (D) 50%, Pat McCrory 47%, Michael Munger (Lib) 3%
Served in the North Carolina Senate for 12 years in the seat once held by his late father, who died when Dalton was 8 years old. Played quarterback for his high schools football team. Spent most of his life as a country lawyer managing a small law firm in Rutherfordton, NC.
Served for nearly 15 years as mayor of Charlotte, longer than any mayor in the citys history. Once worked as a basketball referee. McCrorys father was mayor pro tempore in the Columbus, OH suburb of Worthington. Student body president at Ragsdale High School in Jamestown, NC.
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About the race: Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) became governor in Dec. 2010 when then-Gov. John Hoeven resigned to become the states junior U.S. senator. The Democratic nominee, state Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor (D), is unlikely to make this a competitive race for this solidly red state in a presidential year. Past election result: John Hoeven (R) 74%, Tim Mathern (D) 24%
Great-grandson Oliver Dalrymple, one of North Dakotas most famous and prominent farmers. Played ice hockey for Yale. Returned to North Dakota after college to help manage the familys farming operations and land holdings. Ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 1992 against Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad. Became governor after his predecessor Gov. John Hoeven (R) resigned to become U.S. Senator.
Returned home to manage the family ranch with his father, Marshall, who was suffering from Parkinsons disease. Has run three marathons, most recently in Fargo in May 2012. Rarely seen not wearing his white cowboy hat. Raises Angus cattle on more than 2,900 acres of land.
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UTAH (R-Herbert)
About the race: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) took office in 2009 when then-Governor and future presidential candidate Jon Huntsman (R) resigned to become the U.S. Ambassador to China. Herbert defended the seat in a 2010 special election and now faces Peter Cooke (D), a retired U.S. Army Reserve general and a wellrespected businessman. Herbert is expected to win. Past election result: Gary Herbert (R)64%, Peter Corroon (D) 32%
After high school, served his two-year Mormon mission in the Washington D.C. area Became governor after Jon Huntsman resigned to become U.S. ambassador to China. Left BYU before graduating to forma real estate firm, Herbert and Assoc. Unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for governor in 2003, but eventually accepted Jon Huntsmans invitation to be his nominee for lieutenant governor.
Grew up in New Jersey, Florida, Thailand, Puerto Rico and Germany as part of different assignment his father took as a Pan Am Airlines maintenance worker. Cooke is a gourmet cook, skier, scuba diver, mountain climber, cyclist and runner who has completed four marathons. In 2009, retired as a 2-Star Major General in the Army Reserve.
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VERMONT (D-Shumlin)
About the race: After one two-year term, incumbent Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) is up for re-election. He faces state Sen. Randy Brock (R). Given Vermonts solidly blue hue and the fact that it is a presidential year, Brock will be hard pressed to make this a competitive contest. Past election result: Peter Shumlin (D) 49%, Brian Dubie (R) 48%
Suffered from dyslexia as a child, a problem that forced him to work on being articulatesomething he said helped him later in politics. Won his first election to the Putney select board at age 24. His student travel company helped 1,300 high school students participate in more than 50 programs around the world this year.
Earned a Bronze Star for his service in the U.S. Army Was appointed by Pres. George W. Bush to the Board of Visitors to West Point. Lost a 2006 bid for re-election as state auditor that he initially thought he won after a recount showed he lost by 102 votes.
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WASHINGTON (D-Open-Gregoire)
About the race: Washington voters havent elected a Republican governor since 1980, but polls are tighter than the states Democratic tilt would otherwise suggest in the race for the seat left open by retiring Gov. Christine Gregoire (D). Fmr. Rep. Jay Inslee (D) recently left the U.S. House to focus on the race against the states Attorney General Rob McKenna (R). Past election result: Christine Gregoire (D) 53%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%
A fifth-generation Washingtonian, Inslees father was a high school teacher in Seattle and his mother was a sales clerk at Sears. Inslees former jobs include driving cement trucks, running jackhammers and painting houses. Has emphasized clean energy as an issue and co-wrote the book, Apollos Fire: Igniting Americas Clean-Energy Economy.
The son of an Army officer, McKenna lived in places from Germany to Bangkok growing up. Served as student body president his senior year at the University of Washington. Served as president of the National Association of Attorneys General (2011-12).
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About the race: Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) became governor in Nov. 2010 after then-Gov. Joe Manchin (D) resigned to assume West Virginias junior U.S. Senate seat. On Election Day, Tomblin faces businessman Bill Maloney (R), his Republican challenger from the 2011 special election to fill the remainder of Manchins term. Tomblin won that race 50% to 47%. Past election result (2011 Special): Earl Ray Tomblin (D) 50%, Bill Maloney (R) 47%
Generally stays away from national politics and has let it be known that he is not happy with President Obama. Sold eggs and rabbits, mowed lawns, and bussed tables at his parents restaurant to earn money growing up. Longest-serving state Senate president in West Virginia history.
Was part of a team that helped develop the successful rescue plan that saved 33 trapped Chilean miners in 2010. According to his campaign, Maloney grew his drilling company, North American Drillers, from a two-person business to become the world leader in large-diameter shaft drilling. Continues to work and consult in the energy sector as the owner of two companies, Cow Run Energy and Drill Leader.
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A NOTE ON SOURCES For the candidates biographical information as well as information on each race, we relied on the Cook Political Report, the Associated Press Election Guide, National Journals Almanac of American Politics, reputable newspapers, and our own reporting.
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THE STATES:
Whats on the ballot, nicknames, demographics, current leadership, and voting history
92
ALABAMA
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING
Population (2010): 4,779,736 White: 67% Black: 26% Hispanic: 3.9% Asian: 1.1%
Therese Ford John Harris Daniel Boman Charlie Holley Penny Bailey Terri Sewell*
Jo Bonner* Martha Roby* Mike Rogers* Robert Aderholt* Mo Brooks* Spencer Bachus* Don Chamberlain
Governor: Robert Bentley (R) Sec. of State: Beth Chapman (R) U.S. Senators: Richard Shelby (R) Jeff Sessions (R)
Registered Voters: 2,586,282 Party ID: No Party Registration Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,176,394 (62%) Kerry 693,933 (37%) 2008: McCain 1,266,546 (60%) Obama 813,479 (39%)
93
ALASKA
On the Ballot
RACE HOUSE AK-AL
*incumbent ^open seat
RATING Solid R
Population (2010): 710,231 White: 64.1% Black: 3.1% Hispanic: 5.5% Asian: 5.3% Native American: 14.4%
Governor: Sean Parnell (R) Lt. Gov.: Mead Treadwell (R) U.S. Senators: Lisa Murkowski (R) Mark Begich (D)
Registered Voters: 499, 341 Party ID: R: 126,486 (25.9%) D: 74,802 (15.3%) Other: 286,287 (58.7%) Presidential: 2008: McCain 193,841 (59%) Obama 123,594 (38%) 2004: Bush 190,889 (61%) Kerry 111,025 (36%) Nader 5,069 (2%)
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ARIZONA
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ DEMOCRAT Richard Carmona REPUBLICAN Jeff Flake RATING Toss Up
HOUSE AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick* AZ-2 Ron Barber* AZ-3 Raul Grijalva* AZ-4 AZ-5^ AZ-6 AZ-7 AZ-8
AZ -9^
Population (2010): 6,392,017 White: 57.8% Black: 3.7% Hispanic: 29.6% Native American: 4% Asian: 2.7%
Governor: Jan Brewer (R) Sec. of State: Ken Bennett (R) U.S. Senators: John McCain (R) Jon Kyl (R)
Registered Voters: 3,100, 575 Party ID: R: 1,131,802 (36%) D: 1,002,937 (31.9%) Other: 1,011,679 (32.2%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,104,294 (55%) Kerry 893,524 (44%) 2008: McCain 1,230,111 (54%) Obama 1,034,707 (45%)
95
ARKANSAS
On the Ballot
RACE HOUSE AR-1 AR-2 AR-3 AR-4^
*incumbent ^open seat
Nickname: The Natural State Capital: Little Rock Polls Close: 8:30 PM ET
Population (2010): 2,915,918 White: 74.5% Black: 15.3% Hispanic: 6.4% Asian: 1.2%
Governor: Mike Beebe (D) Sec. of State: Mark Martin (R) U.S. Senators: Mark Pryor (D) John Boozman (R)
96
CALIFORNIA
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Dianne Feinstein* REPUBLICAN Elizabeth Emken RATING Likely D
Population (2010): 37,253,956 White: 40.1% Black: 5.8% Hispanic: 37.6% Asian: 12.8%
HOUSE CA-1^ CA-2^ CA-3 CA-4 CA-5 CA-6 CA-7 CA-8^ CA-9 CA-10 CA-11 CA-12 CA-13 CA-14 CA-15
Jim Reed Jared Huffman John Garamendi* Jack Uppal Mike Thompson* Doris Matsui* Ami Bera
Jerry McNerney* Jose Hernandez George Miller* Nancy Pelosi* Barbara Lee* Jackie Speier* Pete Stark* Eric Swalwell CA-16 Jim Costa* CA-17 Mike Honda* CA-18 Anna Eshoo* CA-19^ Zoe Lofgren CA-20 Sam Farr* CA-21^ John Hernandez CA-22 Otto Lee CA-23 CA-24 Lois Capps* CA-25 Lee Rogers CA-26 Julia Brownley CA-27 Judy Chu* CA-28 Adam Schiff* CA-29^ Tony Cardenas CA-30 Brad Sherman* Howard Berman* CA-31 CA-32 Grace Napolitano*
Doug LaMalfa Daniel Roberts Kim Vann Tom McClintock* Randy Loftin Joseph McCray Dan Lungren* Paul Cook Greg Imus Ricky Gill Jeff Denham* Virginia Fuller John Dennis Debbie Bacigalupi
Solid R Solid D Likely D Solid R Solid D Solid D Toss Up Solid R Lean D Toss Up Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely R Solid R Solid R Lean D Solid R Toss Up Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid D
Governor: Jerry Brown (D) Sec. of State: Debra Bowen (D) U.S. Senators: Dianne Feinstein (D) Barbara Boxer (D)
Registered Voters: 17,153,699 Party ID: D: 7,620,240 (44.1%) R: 5,361,875 (31%) Other: 4,303,768 (24.9%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 6,745,485 (54%) Bush 5,509,826 (44%) 2008: Obama 8,274,473 (61%) McCain 5,011,781 (37%)
Brian Whelan Evelyn Li Dave Chapman Robert Murray Jeff Taylor David Valadao Devin Nunes* Kevin McCarthy* Abel Maldonado Buck McKeon* Tony Strickland Jack Orswell Phil Jennerjahn
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Henry Waxman* Xavier Becerra* Joe Baca* Raul Ruiz Karen Bass* Linda Sanchez* Jay Chen
Lucille Roybal-Allard*
Stephen Smith Gloria McLeod Mary Bono Mack* Morgan Osbourne Benjamin Campos Ed Royce*
Solid D Solid D Solid D Toss Up Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid D Lean D Solid R Solid D
David Sanchez CA-41^ Mark Takano John Tavaglione CA-42 Michael Williamson Ken Calvert* CA-43 Maxine Waters* Bob Flores Janice Hahn* Laura Richardson* CA-45 Sukhee Kang CA-46 Loretta Sanchez* CA-47^ Alan Lowenthal CA-48 Ron Varasteh CA-49 Jerry Tetalman CA-50 David Secor CA-51^ Juan Vargas CA-52 Scott Peters CA-53 Susan Davis*
*incumbent ^open seat
CA-44
Gary Delong
Dana Rohrabacher*
Darrell Issa* Duncan D. Hunter* Michael Crimmins Brian Bilbray* Nick Popaditch
98
COLORADO
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING
Population (2010): 5,029,196 White: 70% Black: 3.8% Hispanic: 20.7% Asian: 2.7%
Diana DeGette* Jared Polis* Sal Pace Brandon Shaffer Joe Miklosi Ed Perlmutter*
Danny Stroud Kevin Lundberg Scott Tipton* Cory Gardner* Doug Lamborn* Mike Coffman* Joe Coors
Governor: John Hickenlooper (D) Sec. of State: Scott Gessler (R) U.S. Senators: Mark Udall (D) Michael Bennet (D)
Registered Voters: 3,381,963 Party ID: R: 874,962 (35.3%) D: 812,389 (32.8%) Other: 789,851 (31.9%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,101,255 (52%) Kerry 1,001,732 (47%) 2008: Obama 1,288,576 (54%) McCain 1,073,589 (45%)
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CONNECTICUT
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ DEMOCRAT Chris Murphy REPUBLICAN Linda McMahon RATING Toss Up
Population (2010): 3,574,097 White: 71.2% Black: 9.4% Hispanic: 13.4% Asian: 3.8%
John Larson* Joe Coutney* Rosa DeLauro* Jim Himes* Elizabeth Esty
John Decker Paul Formica Wayne Winsley Steve Obsitnik Andrew Roraback
Governor: Dannel Malloy (D) Sec. of State: Denise Merrill (D) U.S. Senators: Joe Lieberman (I) Richard Blumenthal (D)
Registered Voters: 2,121,442 Party ID (2011): D: 784,280 (37%) R: 431,721 (20%) Other: 905,441 (43%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 857,488 (54%) Bush 693,826 (44%) 2008: Obama 997,772 (61%) McCain 629,428 (38%)
100
DELAWARE
On the Ballot
RACE GOV SEN DEMOCRAT Jack Markell* Tom Carper* REPUBLICAN Jeff Crag Kevin Wade RATING Solid D Solid D
Population (2010): 897, 934 White: 65.3% Black: 20.8% Hispanic: 8.2% Asian: 3.2%
HOUSE DE-AL
*incumbent ^open seat
John Carney*
Tom Kovach
Solid D
Governor: Jack Markell (D) Sec. of State: Jeffrey Bullock (D) U.S. Senators: Thomas Carper (D) Christopher Coons (D)
Registered Voters: 623,292 Party ID: D: 295,139 (47%) R: 180,014 (29%) Other: 148,139 (24%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 200,152 (53%) Bush 171,660 (46%) 2008: Obama 255,459 (62%) McCain 152,374 (37%)
101
FLORIDA
On the Ballot
RACE SEN HOUSE FL-1 FL-2 FL-3^ FL-4 FL-5 FL-6^ FL-7 FL-8 FL-9^ FL-10 FL-11 FL-12^ FL-13 FL-14 FL-15 FL-16 FL-17 FL-18 FL-19^ FL-20 FL-21 FL-22^ FL-23 FL-24 FL-25 FL-26 FL -27
*incumbent ^open seat
RATING Lean D
Population (2010): 18,801,310 White: 57.9% Black: 15.2% Hispanic: 22.5% Asian: 2.4%
Jim Bryan Al Lawson Jaques Gaillot Corrine Brown* Heather Beaven Jason Kendall Shannon Roberts Alan Grayson Val Demings David Werder Jonathan Snow Jessica Ehrlich Kathy Castor* Unopposed Keith Fitzgerald William Bronson
Patrick Murphy
Jeff Miller* Steve Southerland* Ted Yoho Ander Crenshaw* LeAnne Kolb Ron Desantis John Mica* Bill Posey* Todd Long Dan Webster* Rich Nugent* Gus Bilirakis* Bill Young* Evelio Otero Dennis Ross* Vern Buchanan* Tom Rooney*
Allen West*
Trey Radel
Adam Hasner Karen Harrington Unopposed Mario Diaz-Balart* David Rivera* Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely D Lean R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Likely R Solid R Toss Up Solid R Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid R Lean D Solid R
Governor: Rick Scott (R) Sec. of State: Ken Detzner (R) U.S. Senators: Bill Nelson (D) Marco Rubio (R)
Registered Voters: 11,483,461 Party ID: D: 4,593,324 (40%) R: 4,147,530 (36%) Other: 2,742,607 (24%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 3,964,522 (52% Kerry 3,583,544 (47%) 2008: Obama 4,282,074 (51%) McCain 4,045,624 (48%)
Frederica Wilson*
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103
GEORGIA
On the Ballot
RACE HOUSE GA-1 GA-2 GA-3 GA-4 GA-5 GA-6 GA-7 GA-8 GA-9^ GA-10 GA-11 GA-12 GA-13 GA-14
*incumbent ^open seat
DEMOCRAT Lesli Messinger Sanford Bishop* Unopposed Hank Johnson* John Lewis* Jeff Kazanow Steve Reilly Unopposed Jody Cooley
Patrick Thompson
RATING Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Toss Up Solid D Solid R
Population (2010): 9,687,653 White: 55.9% Black: 30% Hispanic: 8.8% Asian: 3.2%
Chris Vaughn Howard Stopeck Tom Price* Rob Woodall* Austin Scott* Doug Collins Paul Broun* Phil Gingery* Lee Anderson Shahid Malik Tom Graves*
Governor: Nathan Deal (R) Sec. of State: Brian Kemp (R) U.S. Senators: Saxby Chambliss (R) Johnny Isakson (R)
Registered Voters: 5,804,812 Party ID: No Party Registration Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,914,254 (58%) Kerry 1,366,149 (41%) 2008: McCain 2,048,759 (52%) Obama 1,844,123 (47%)
104
HAWAII
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Mazie Hirono REPUBLICAN Linda Lingle RATING Lean D
Population (2010): 1,360,301 White: 22.7% Asian: 37.7% Hawaiian: 9.4% Hispanic: 8.9% Black: 1.5%
Solid D Solid D Governor: Neil Abercrombie (D) Lt. Governor: Brian Schatz (D) U.S. Senators: Daniel Inouye (D) Daniel Akaka (D)
Registered Voters: 690,748 Party ID: No Party Registration Presidential: 2004: Kerry 231,708 (54%) Bush 194,191 (45%) 2008: Obama 325,871 (72%) McCain 120,566 (27%)
105
IDAHO
On the Ballot
RACE HOUSE ID-1 ID-2
*incumbent ^open seat
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
RATING
Solid R Solid R
Population (2010): 1,567,582 White: 84% Black: 0.6% Hispanic: 11.2% Asian: 1.2% Native American: 1.1%
Governor: C.L. Butch Otter (R) Sec. of State: Ben Ysursa (R) U.S. Senators: Mike Crapo (R) Jim Risch (R)
Registered Voters: 762,997 Party ID: No Party Registration Presidential: 2004: Bush 409,235 (68%) Kerry 181,098 (30%) 2008: McCain 403,012 (62%) Obama 236,440 (36%)
106
ILLINOIS
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING
HOUSE IL-01 IL-02 IL-03 IL-04 IL-05 IL-06 IL-07 IL-08 IL-09 IL-10 IL-11 IL-12^ IL-13^ IL-14 IL-15 IL-16 IL-17 IL-18
*incumbent ^open seat
Population (2010): 12,830,632 White: 63.7% Black: 14.3% Hispanic: 15.8% Asian: 4.5%
Bobby Rush* Jesse Jackson* Daniel Lipinski* Luis Gutierrez* Mike Quigley* Leslie Coolidge Danny Davis* Tammy Duckworth Jan Schakowsky* Brad Schneider Bill Foster William Enyart David Gill Dennis Anderson Angela Michael Wanda Rohl Cheri Bustos Steve Waterworth
Dan Schmitt Peter Roskam* Rita Zak Joe Walsh* Timothy Wolfe Bob Dold* Judy Biggert* Jason Plummer Rodney Davis Randy Hultgren* John Shimkus* Asdam Kinzinger* Bobby Schilling* Aaron Schock*
Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid D Likely D Solid D Lean D Toss Up Toss Up Toss Up Solid R Solid R Solid R Toss Up Solid R
Governor: Pat Quinn (D) Sec. of State: Jesse White (D) U.S. Senators: Richard Durbin (D) Mark Kirk (R)
Registered Voters: 7,304,333 Party ID: No Party Registration Presidential: 2004: Kerry 2,891,550 (55%) Bush 2,345,946 (44%) 2008: Obama 3,419,348 (62%) McCain 2,031,179 (37%)
107
INDIANA
On the Ballot
RACE GOV^ SEN^ DEMOCRAT John Gregg Joe Donnelly REPUBLICAN Mike Pence
Richard Murdock
HOUSE IN-1 IN-2^ IN-3 IN-4 IN-5^ IN-6^ IN-7 IN-8 IN-9
Peter Visclosky* Brendan Mullen Kevin Boyd Tara Nelson Scott Reske Bradley Bookout Andre Carson* Dave Crooks Shelli Yoder
Joel Phelps Jackie Walorski Marlin Stutzman Todd Rokita* Susan Brooks Luke Messer Carlos May Larry Bucshon* Todd Young*
Governor: Mitch Daniels (R) Sec. of State: Connie Lawson (R) U.S. Senators: Richard Lugar (R) Dan Coats (R)
Registered Voters: 4,409,890 Party ID: No Party Registration Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,479,438 (60%) Kerry 969,011 (39%) 2008: Obama 1,374,039 (50%) McCain 1,345,648 (49%)
108
IOWA
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING
Population (2010): 3,046,355 White: 88.7% Black: 2.9% Hispanic: 5% Asian: 1.7%
Governor: Terry Branstad (R) Sec. of State: Matt Schultz (R) U.S. Senators: Charles Grassley (R) Tom Harkin (D)
Registered Voters: 2,154,464 Party ID: No Party Registration Presidential: 2004: Bush 751,957 (50%) Kerry 741,898 (49%) 2008: Obama 828,940 (54%) McCain 682,379 (44%)
109
KANSAS
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING
Population (2010): 2,853,118 White: 78.2% Black: 5.7% Hispanic: 10.5% Asian: 2.3%
Unopposed
Tobias Schlingensiepen
Robert Tillman
Governor: Sam Brownback (R) Sec. of State: Kris Kobach (R) U.S. Senators: Pat Roberts (R) Jerry Moran (R)
Registered Voters: 1,719,469 Party ID (2010): R: 744,975 (43.7%) D: 460,318 (27%) Other: 501,505 (29.4%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 736,456 (62%) Kerry 434,993 (37%) 2008: McCain 699,655 (57%) Obama 514,765 (42%)
110
KENTUCKY
On the Ballot
RACE HOUSE KY-1 KY-2 KY-3 KY-4^ KY-5 KY-6
*incumbent ^open seat
DEMOCRAT Charles Hatchett David Williams John Yarmuth* Bill Adkins Kenneth Stepp Ben Chandler*
REPUBLICAN Ed Whitefield* Brett Guthrie* Brooks Wicker Thomas Massie Hal Rogers* Andy Barr
Population (2010): 4,339,367 White: 86.3% Black: 7.7% Hispanic: 3.1% Asian: 1.1%
Governor: Steve Beshear (D) Sec. of State: Alison Lundergan Grimes (R) U.S. Senators: Mitch McConnell (R) Rand Paul (R)
Registered Voters: 3,012,175 Party ID (2012): D: 1,655,118 (55%) Republican: 1,140,635 (38%) Other: 214,422 (7%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,069,439 (60%) Kerry 712, 733 (40%) 2008: McCain 1,048,462 (57%) Obama 751,985 (41%)
111
LOUISIANA
On the Ballot
RACE HOUSE LA-01 LA-02 LA-03^ LA-04 LA-05 LA-06
*incumbent ^open seat
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
RATING
Steve Scalise* Dwayne Bailey Jeff Landry* Charles Boustany* John Fleming* Rodney Alexander* Bill Cassidy*
Population (2010): 4,533,372 White: 60.3% Black: 31.8% Hispanic: 4.2% Asian: 1.5%
Governor: Bobby Jindal (R) Sec. of State: Tom Schedler (R) U.S. Senators: Mary Landrieu (D) David Vitter (R)
Rufus Craig
Registered Voters: 2,897,286 Party ID: D: 1,400,668 (48%) R: 795,674 (27%) Other: 700,944 (24%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,102,169 (57%) Kerry 820,299 (42%) 2008: McCain 1,148,275 (59%) Obama 782,989 (40%)
112
MAINE
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ HOUSE ME-1 ME-2
*incumbent ^open seat
DEMOCRAT Cynthia Dill Angus King (I) Chellie Pingree* Michael Michaud*
REPUBLICAN
Charlie Summers
RATING Toss Up
Population (2010): 1,328,361 White: 94.4% Black: 1.1% Hispanic: 1.3% Asian: 1%
Solid D Solid D
Governor: Paul Lepage (R) Secretary of State: Charles Summers (R) U.S. Senators: Olympia Snowe (R) Susan Collins (R)
Registered Voters: 914,435 Party ID: (2010) D: 324,630 (33%) R: 273,305 (28%) I: N/A
Presidential: 2004: Kerry 396,842 (54%) Bush 330,201 (45%) 2008: Obama 421,923 (58%) McCain 295,273 (40%)
113
MARYLAND
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Ben Cardin* REPUBLICAN Daniel Bongino RATING Solid D
Population: 5,773,552 White: 54.7% Black: 29% Hispanic: 8.2% Asian: 5.5%
Wendy Rosen
C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger*
John Sarbanes* Donna Edwards* Steny Hoyer* John Delaney Elijah Cummings* Chris Van Hollen*
Andy Harris* Nancy Jacbos Eric Knowles Faith Loudon Tony O'Donnell Roscoe Bartlett* Frank Mirabile Ken Timmerman
Governor: Martin OMalley (D) Secretary of State: John McDonough (D) U.S. Senators: Barbara Mikulski (D) Ben Cardin (D)
Registered Voters: 3,563,971 Party ID: (2010) D: 1,934,133 (57%) R: 905,208 (26%) Other: 486,973 (14%) Total: 3,416,058
Presidential: 2004: Kerry 1,334,493 (56%) Bush 1,024,703 (43%) 2008: Obama 1,629,467 (62%) McCain 959,862 (36%)
114
MASSACHUSETTS
Nickname: Bay State Capital: Boston Polls Close: 8:00 PM ET
On the Ballot
RACE SEN HOUSE MA-1 MA-2 MA-3 MA-4^ MA-5 MA-6 MA-7 MA-8 MA-9
*incumbent ^open seat
DEMOCRAT
Elizabeth Warren
RATING Toss Up
Richard Neal* Jim McGovern* Niki Tsongas* Joe Kennedy Ed Markey* John Tierney* Mike Capuano* Stephen Lynch* Bill Keating*
Unopposed Unopposed Jon Golnik Sean Bielat Tom Tierney Richard Tisei Joe Selvaggi Adam Chaprales
Governor: Deval Patrick (D) Sec. of State: William Galvin (D) U.S. Senators: John Kerry (D) Scott Brown (R)
Registered Voters: 4,180,918 Party ID: Democrats: 1,486,648 (36%) Republicans: 471,829 (11%) Other: 2,222,441 (53%)
Presidential: 2004: Kerry 1,803,800 (62%) Bush 1,071,109 (37%) 2008: Obama 1,904,097 (62%) McCain 1,108,854 (36%)
115
MASSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN
On the Ballot
RACE SEN HOUSE MI-1 MI-2 MI-3 MI-4 MI-5^ MI-6 MI-7 MI-8 MI-9 MI-10 MI-11^ MI-12 MI-13 MI-14
*incumbent ^open seat
Nickname: Bay State State Great Lakes Capital: Boston Lansing Polls Close: 8:00 PM ET 9:00
DEMOCRAT
Debbie Stabenow*
RATING Likely D
Population: 6,547,629 9,883,640 White: 76.1% 76.6% Black: 6% 14% Hispanic: 9.6% 4.4% Asian: 5.3% 2.4%
Gary McDowell Willie German Steve Pestka Debra Wirth Dan Kildee Mike O'Brien Kurt Haskell Lance Enderle Sandy Levin* Chuck Stadler Syed Taj John Dingell* John Conyers* Gary Peters*
Dan Benishek* Bill Huizenga* Justin Amash* Dave Camp* Jim Slezak Fred Upton* Tim Walberg Mike Rogers* Don Volaric Candice Miller* Kerry Bentivolio Cynthia Kallgren Harry Sawicki John Hauler
Toss Up Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Lean R Solid D Solid D Solid D
Governor: Deval Patrick (D) Rick Snyder (R) Secretary of State: Ruth Johnson (R) William Galvin (D) U.S. Senators: Carl Kerry (D) JohnLevin (D) Debbie Stabenow Scott Brown (R) (D)
Registered Voters: 7,454,553 voters: 4,180,918 Party ID: No party registration Democrats: 1,486,648 (36%) Republicans: 471,829 (11%) Presidential: Other: 2,222,441 (53%) 2004: Kerry 2,479,183 (51%) Presidential: (48%) Bush 2,313,746 2004: 2008: Kerry 1,803,800 (62%) Obama 2,872,579 (57%) Bush 1,071,109 (37%) McCain 2,048,639 (41%) 2008: Obama 1,904,097 (62%) McCain 1,108,854 (36%)
116
MINNESOTA
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Amy Klobuchar* REPUBLICAN Kurt Bills RATING Solid D
Nickname: North Star State Capital: St. Paul Polls Close: 9:00 PM ET
Tim Walz*
Mike Obermueller
Brian Barnes Betty McCollum* Keith Ellison* Jim Graves Collin Peterson* Richard Nolan
Allen Quist John Kline* Erik Paulsen* Tony Hernandez Chris Fields Michele Bachmann* Lee Byberg Chip Cravaack
Governor: Mark Dayton (R) Secretary of State: Mark Ritchie (D) U.S. Senators: Amy Kloubuchar (D) Al Franken (D)
Registered Voters: 3,059,234 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Kerry 1,445,014 (51%) Bush 1,346,695 (48%) 2008: Obama 1,573,354 (54%) McCain 1,275,409 (44%)
117
MISSISSIPPI
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Albert Gore Jr. REPUBLICAN Roger Wicker* RATING Solid R
Population : 2,967,297 White: 58% Black: 36.9% Hispanic: 2.7% Asian: 0.9%
Governor: Phil Bryant (R) Secretary of State: Delbert Hosemann (R) U.S. Senators: Thad Cochran (R) Roger Wicker (R)
Registered Voters: 1,794,042 (2010) Party ID: No Party ID Presidential 2004: Bush 684,981 (59%) Kerry 457,766 (40%) 2008: McCain 724,597 (56%) Obama 554,662 (43%)
118
MISSOURI
On the Ballot
RACE GOV SEN DEMOCRAT Jay Nixon* Claire McCaskill* REPUBLICAN Dave Spence Todd Akin RATING Lean D Likely D
Population: 5,988,927 White: 81% Black: 11.5% Hispanic: 3.5% Asian: 1.6%
Lacy Clay* Glenn Koenen Eric Mayer Teresa Hensley Emanuel Cleaver* Kyle Yarber Jim Evans Jack Rushin
Robyn Hamlin Ann Wagner Blaine Luetkemeyer* Vicky Hartzler* Jacob Turk Sam Graves* Billy Long* Jo Ann Emerson*
Governor: Jay Nixon (D) Secretary of State: Robin Carnahan (D) U.S. Senators: Roy Blunt (R) Claire McCaskill (D)
Registered voters: 4,137,545 (2010) Party ID: No party ID Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,455,713 (53%) Kerry 1,259,171 (46%) 2008: McCain 1,445,814 (49.43%) Obama 1,441,911 (49.29%)
119
MONTANA
On the Ballot
RACE GOV^ DEMOCRAT Steve Bullock REPUBLICAN Rick Hill RATING Toss Up
Population: 989,415 White: 87.8% Black: 0.4% Hispanic: 2.9% Asian: 0.6%
SEN
John Tester
Dennis Rehberg
Toss Up Governor: Brian Schweitzer (D) Secretary of State: Linda McCulloch (D)
HOUSE
MT-AL^
Kim Gillan
Steve Daines*
Likely R
Registered Voters: 658,903 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Bush 266,063 (59%) Kerry 173,710 (39%) 2008: McCain 242,763 (50%) Obama 231,667 (47%) Paul 10,638 (2%)
120
NEBRASKA
Population: 1,826,341 White: 82.1% Black: 4.4% Hispanic: 9.2% Asian: 1.7%
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ DEMOCRAT Bob Kerrey REPUBLICAN Deb Fisher RATING Likely R
Governor: Dave Heineman (R) Secretary of State: John Gale (R) U.S. Senators: Ben Nelson (D) Mike Johanns (R)
HOUSE NE-1 Korey Reiman NE-2 John Ewing NE-3 Mark Sullivan
*incumbent ^open seat
Registered Voters: 1,142,247 (2010) Party ID: (2010) D: 380,321 (33%) R: 549,105 (48%) Other: 212,821(19%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 512,814 (66%) Kerry 254,328 (33%) 2008: McCain 452,979 (57%) Obama 333,319 (42%)
121
NEVADA
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Shelley Berkley REPUBLICAN Dean Heller* RATING Toss Up
Population (2010): 2,700,551 White: 54.1% Black: 7.7% Hispanic: 26.5% Asian: 7.1%
Diana Titus
Samuel Koepnick
Christopher Edwards
Governor: Brian Sandoval (R) Secretary of State: Ross Miller (D) U.S. Senators: Harry Reid (D) Dean Heller (R)
Registered Voters: 1,500,818 Party ID: D: 635,419 (42%) R: 504,974 (34%) Other: 360,425 (24%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 418,690 (50%) Kerry 397,190 (48%) 2008: Obama 533,736 (55%) McCain 412,827 (43%)
122
NEW HAMPSHIRE
On the Ballot
RACE GOV^ DEMOCRAT Maggie Hassan REPUBLICAN
Ovide Lamontage
RATING Toss Up
Population: 1,316,470 White: 92.3% Black: 1.0% Hispanic: 2.8% Asian: 2.1%
Toss Up Lean D
Governor: John Lynch (R) Secretary of State: William Gardner (D) U.S. Senators: Kelly Ayotte (R) Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Registered Voters: 791,434 Party ID: D: 224,915 (28%) R: 258, 714 (33%) Other: 307,805 (39%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 340,511 (50%) Bush 331,237 (49%) 2008: Obama 384,826 (54%) McCain 316,534 (45%)
123
NEW JERSEY
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Bob Menendez* REPUBLICAN Joe Kyrillos RATING Likely D
Population: 8,791,894 White: 59.3% Black: 12.8% Hispanic: 17.7% Asian: 8.2%
HOUSE NJ-1 NJ-2 NJ-3 NJ-4 NJ-5 NJ-6 NJ-7 NJ-8 NJ-9 NJ-10^ NJ-11 NJ-12
Rob Andrews*
Cassandra Shober
Albio Sires* Bill Pascrell* Donald Payne, Jr. John Arvanites Rush Holt*
Greg Horton Frank LoBiondo* Jon Runyan* Chris Smith* Scott Garrett* Anna Little Leonard Lance* Maria Karczewski Shmuley Boteach Brian Kelemen
Rodney Frelinghuysen*
Eric Beck
Solid D Solid R Lean R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid D
Governor: Chris Christie (R) Secretary of State/Lt. Governor: Kim Guadagno (R) U.S. Senators: Frank Lautenberg (D) Robert Menendez (D)
Registered Voters: 5,497,322 Party ID: (2010) D: 1,787,480 (33%) R: 1,084,757 (20%) Other: 2,625,085 (47%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 1,911,430 (53%) Bush 1,670,003 (46%) 2008: Obama 2,215,422 (57%) McCain 1,613,207 (42%)
124
NEW MEXICO
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ HOUSE NM-1^ NM-2 NM-3 DEMOCRAT Martin Heinrich REPUBLICAN Heather Wilson
Janice Arnold-Jones
Population: 2,059,179 White: 40.5% Black: 1.7% Hispanic: 46.3% Asian: 1.3%
Governor: Susana Martinez (R) Secretary of State: Dianna Duran (R) U.S. Senators: Jeff Bingaman (D) Tom Udall (D)
Registered Voters: 1,228,028 Party ID: D: 586,696 (48%) R: 388,511 (32%) Other: 252,821 (20%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 376,930 (50%) Kerry 370,942 (49%) 2008: Obama 384,826 (54%) McCain 316,534 (45%)
125
NEW YORK
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Kristen Gillibrand* REPUBLICAN Wendy Long RATING Solid D
Population: 19,378,102 White: 58.3% Black: 14.4% Hispanic: 17.6% Asian: 7.3%
HOUSE NY-1 NY-2 NY-3 NY-4 NY-5 NY-6^ NY-7 NY-8^ NY-9 NY-10 NY-11 NY-12 NY-13 NY-14 NY-15 NY-16 NY-17 NY-18 NY-19 NY-20 NY-21 NY-22 NY-23 NY-24 NY-25 NY-26 NY-27
Tim Bishop* Vivianne Falcone Steve Israel* Carolyn McCarthy* Gregory Meeks* Grace Meng Nydia Velazquez* Hakeem Jeffries Yvette Clarke* Jerrold Nadler* Mark Murphy Carolyn Maloney* Charles Rangel* Joe Crowley* Jose Serrano* Eliot Engel* Nita Lowey* Sean Maloney Julian Schreibman Paul Tonko* Bill Owens* Dan Lamb Nate Shinagawa Daniel Maffei Louise Slaughter* Brian Higgins* Kathy Hochul*
Randy Altschuler Peter King* Stephen Labate Francis Becker Allan Jennings Daniel Halloran Alan Bellone Daniel Cavanagh Michael Chan Mike Grimm*
Christopher Wight
Nan Hayworth
Christopher Gibson*
Lean D Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Toss Up Toss Up Solid D Likely D Solid R Solid R Lean D Likely D Solid D Toss Up
Governor: Andrew Cuomo (D) Secretary of State: Cesar Perales (D) U.S. Senators: Charles Schumer (D) Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Registered Voters: 11,477,613 Party ID: D: 5,649,934 (49%) R: 2,826,913 (24%) Other: 3,000,766 (25%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 4,314,280 (58%) Bush 2,962,567 (40%) 2008: Obama 4,804,701 (63%) McCain 2,752,728 (36%)
126
NORTH CAROLINA
On the Ballot
RACE GOV^ DEMOCRAT Walter Dalton REPUBLICAN Pat McCrory RATING Lean R
Population: 9,535,483 White: 65.3% Black: 21.2% Hispanic: 8.4% Asian: 2.2%
HOUSE NC-1 NC-2 NC-3 NC-4 NC-5 NC-6 NC-7 NC-8 NC-9^ NC-10 NC-11^ NC-12 NC-13^
Anthony Foriest Mike McIntyre* Larry Kissell* Jennifer Roberts Patsy Keever Hayden Rogers Mel Watt* Charles Malone
Virginia Foxx* Howard Coble* David Rouzer Richard Hudson Robert Pittenger Patrick McHenry* Mark Meadows Jack Brosch George Holding
Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Toss Up Likely R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid D Likely R
Governor: Bev Perdue (D) Secretary of State: Elaine Marshall (D) U.S. Senators: Richard Burr (R) Kay Hagan (D)
Registered Voters: 6,452,501 Party ID: D: 2,776,963 (43%) R: 2,077,999 (32%) Other: 1,667,539 (25%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,961,166 (56%) Kerry 1,525,849 (44%) 2008: Obama 2,142,651 (50%) McCain 2,128,474 (49%)
127
NORTH DAKOTA
On the Ballot
RACE GOV SEN^ DEMOCRAT Ryan Taylor Heidi Heitkamp REPUBLICAN
Jack Dalrymple*
Rick Berg
HOUSE ND-AL^
Pam Gulleson
Kevin Cramer
Likely R
Governor: Jack Dalrymple (R) Secretary of State: Al Jaeger (R) U.S. Senators: Kent Conrad (D) John Hoeven (D)
State does not keep voter registration records. Party ID: No Party ID. Presidential: 2004: Bush 196,651 (63%) Kerry 111,052 (35%) 2008: McCain 168,601 (53%) Obama 141,278 (45%)
128
OHIO
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Sherrod Brown* REPUBLICAN Josh Mandel RATING Lean D
HOUSE OH-1 OH-2^ OH-3^ OH-4 OH-5 OH-6 OH-7 OH-8 OH-9 OH-10 OH-11 OH-12 OH-13
OH-14^
Jeff Sinnard William Smith Joyce Beatty Jim Slone Angela Zimmann Charlie Wilson
Joyce Healy-Abrams
OH-15 OH-16
Unopposed Marcy Kaptur* Sharen Neuhardt Marcia Fudge* Jim Reese Tim Ryan* Dale Blanchard Pat Lang Betty Sutton*
Steve Chabot* Brad Wenstrup Chris Long Jim Jordan* Bob Latta* Bill Johnson* Bob Gibbs John Boehner*
Samuel Wurzelbacher
Mike Turner* Unopposed Pat Tiberi* Marisha Agana David Joyce Steve Stivers* Jim Renacci*
Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Lean R LikelyR Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Toss Up
Governor: John Kasich (R) Secretary of State: John Husted (R) U.S. Senators: Sherrod Brown (D) Rob Portman (R)
Registered Voters: 7,772,180 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Bush 2,859,764 (51%) Kerry 2,741,165 (49%) 2008: Obama 2,940,044 (52%) McCain 2,677,820 (47%)
129
OKLAHOMA
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING
John Olson Rob Wallace Timothy Murray Donna Bebo Tom Guild
Jim Bridenstine
Markwayne Mullin
Population: 3,751,351 White: 68.7% Black: 7.3% Hispanic: 8.9% Asian: 1.7% Native American: 8.2%
Governor: Mary Fallin (R) Secretary of State: Glen Coffee (R) U.S. Senators: James Inhofe (R) Tom Coburn (R)
Registered Voters: 2,000,610 Party ID: D: 943,283 (47%) R: 828,257 (41%) Other: 229,070 (11%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 959,792 (66%) Kerry 503,966 (34%) 2008: McCain 960,165 (66%) Obama 502,496 (34%)
130
OREGON
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING
Suzanne Bonamici*
Delinda Morgan
Population: 3,831,074 White: 78.5% Black: 1.7% Hispanic: 11.7% Asian: 3.6% Native American: 1.1%
Governor: John Kitzhaber (D) Secretary of State: Kate Brown (D) U.S. Senators: Ron Wyden (D) Jeff Merkley (D)
Registered Voters: 2,203,272 Party ID: D: 863,322 (42%) R: 664,123 (32%) Other: 541,353 (26%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 943,163 (51%) Bush 866,831 (47%) 2008: Obama 1,037,291 (57%) McCain 738,475 (40%)
131
PENNSYLVANIA
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Bob Casey* REPUBLICAN Tom Smith RATING Lean D
Population: 12,702,379 White: 79.5% Black: 10.4% Hispanic: 5.7% Asian: 2.7%
HOUSE PA-1 PA-2 PA-3 PA-4^ PA-5 PA-6 PA-7 PA-8 PA-9 PA-10 PA-11 PA-12 PA-13 PA-14 PA-15 PA-16 PA-17^ PA-18
Robert Brady* Chaka Fattah* Missa Eaton * Harry Perkinson Charles Dumas Manan Trivedi George Badey Kathy Boockvar Karen Ramsburg Philip Scollo Gene Stilp Mark Critz* Allyson Schwartz* Mike Doyle* Rick Daugherty Aryanna Strader Matthew Cartwright Larry Maggi
John Featherman Robert Mansfield Mike Kelly* Scott Perry Glenn Thompson* Jim Gerlach* Patrick Meehan* Mike Fitzpatrick* Bill Shuster* Tom Marino* Lou Barletta* Keith Rothfus Joe Rooney Hans Lessmann Charles Dent* Joseph Pitts* Laureen Cummings Tim Murphy*
Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid R Lean R Solid R Solid R Solid R Toss Up Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R
Governor: Tom Corbett (R) Secretary of State: Carol Aichele (R) U.S. Senators: Robert Casey, Jr. (D) Pat Toomey (R)
Registered Voters: 8,351,247 Party ID: D: 4,185,377 (50%) R: 3,099,371 (37%) Other: 1,066,499 (13%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 2,938,095 (51%) Bush 2,793,847 (48%) 2008: Obama 3,276,363 (54%) McCain 2,655,885 (44%)
132
RHODE ISLAND
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT
Sheldon Whitehouse
RATING Solid D
Population: 1,052,567 White: 76.4% Black: 4.9% Hispanic: 12.4% Asian: 2.8%
Lean D Solid D
Governor: Lincoln Chafee (I) Secretary of State: Ralph Mollis (D) U.S. Senators: Jack Reed (D) Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Registered Voters: 699,626 (2010) Party ID: (2010) D: 286,626 (41%) R: 72,603 (10%) Other: 340,081 (49%) Presidential: 2004: Kerry 259,760 (59%) Bush 169,046 (39%) 2008: Obama 269,571 (62%) McCain165, 391 (35%)
133
SOUTH CAROLINA
On the Ballot
RACE HOUSE SC-1 SC-2 SC-3 SC-4 SC-5 SC-6 SC-7^ DEMOCRAT Bobbie Rose Unopposed Brian Doyle Deb Morrow Joyce Knott Jim Clyburn*
Gloria Bromell Tinubu
Population: 4,625,364 White: 64.1% Black: 27.7% Hispanic: 5.1% Asian: 1.3%
Governor: Nikki Haley (R) Secretary of State: Mark Hammond (R) U.S. Senators: Lindsey Graham (R) Jim DeMint (R)
Registered Voters: 2,762,735 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Bush 937,974 (58%) Kerry 661,699 (41%) 2008: McCain 1,034,896 (54%) Obama 864,449 (45%)
134
SOUTH DAKOTA
On the Ballot
RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN RATING HOUSE SD-AL Matt Varliek
*incumbent ^open seat
Kristi Noem*
Likely R
Population: 814,180 White: 84.7% Black: 1.2% Hispanic: 2.7% Asian: 0.9% Native American: 8.5%
Governor: Dennis Daugaard (R) Secretary of State: Jason Grant (R) U.S. Senators: Tim Johnson (D) John Thune (R)
Registered Voters: 527,017 Party ID: D: 189,045 (36%) R: 242,487 (46%) Other: 95,485 (18%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 232,584 (60%) Kerry 149,244 (38%) 2008: McCain 203,054 (53%) Obama 170,924 (45%)
135
TENNESSEE
On the Ballot
RACE SEN DEMOCRAT Mark Clayton REPUBLICAN Bob Corker* RATING Solid R
Population: 6,346,105 White: 75.6% Black: 16.5% Hispanic: 4.6% Asian: 1.4%
HOUSE TN-1 TN-2 TN-3 TN-4 TN-5 TN-6 TN-7 TN-8 TN-9
Allan Woodruff Troy Goodale Mary Headrick Eric Stewart Jim Cooper*
Credo Amouzouvik
Phil Roe* John Duncan* Chuck Fleischmann* Scott DesJarlais Brad Staats Diane Black* Marsha Blackburn* Steve Fincher* George Flinn
Governor: Bill Haslam (R) Secretary of State: Trey Hargett (R) U.S. Senators: Lamar Alexander (R) Bob Corker (R)
Voter Registration: 3,447,163 (2011) Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,384,375 (57%) Kerry 1,036,477 (43%) 2008: McCain 1,479,178 (57%) Obama 1,087,437 (42%)
136
TEXAS
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ HOUSE TX-1 TX-2 TX-3 TX-4 TX-5 TX-6 TX-7 TX-8 TX-9 TX-10 TX-11 TX-12 TX-13 TX-14^ TX-15 TX-16^ TX-17 TX-18 TX-19 TX-20^ TX-21 TX-22 TX-23 TX-24 TX-25^ TX-26 TX-27 TX-28 TX-29 TX-30 TX-31 TX-32 TX-33^ TX-34^ TX-35 TX-36^ DEMOCRAT Paul Sadler REPUBLICAN Ted Cruz RATING Solid R
Population: 25,145,561 White: 45.3% Black: 11.5% Hispanic: 37.6% Asian: 3.8%
Shirley McKellar Jim Dougherty VaLinda Hathcox Linda Mrosko Kenneth Sanders James Cargas Neil Burns Al Green* Tawana Cadien Jim Riley Dave Robinson Nick Lampson Ruben Hinojosa* Beto O'Rourke Sheila Jackson Lee*
Joaquin Castro Candace Duval Kesha Rogers Pete Gallego Tim Rusk Elaine Henderson David Sanchez Rose Meza Harrison Henry Cuellar* Gene Green* Eddie Johnson* Travis Washington Stephen Wyman John Carter Katherine Savers Pete Sessions* McGovern Marc Veasey Chuck Bradley Solid D Filemon Vela Jessica Puente Bradshaw Solid D Lloyd Doggett* Susan Narvaiz Solid D Max Martin Steve Stockman Solid R
Louie Gohmert* Ted Poe* Sam Johnson* Ralph Hall* Jeb Hensarling* Joe Barton* John Culberson* Kevin Brady* Steve Mueller Michael McCaul* Mike Conaway* Kay Granger* Mac Thornberry* Randy Weber Dale Brueggemann Barbara Carrasco Bill Flores* Sean Seibert Randy Neugebauer* David Rosa Lamar Smith* Pete Olson* Quico Canseco* Kenny Marchant* Roger Williams Michael Burgess* Blake Farenthold* William Hayward
Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Lean R Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Toss Up Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R
Governor: Rick Perry (R) Secretary of State: Hope Andrade (R) U.S. Senators: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) John Cornyn (R)
Registered Voters: 13,065,425 Party ID: No party registration Presidential: 2004: Bush 4,526,917 (61%) Kerry 2,832,704 (38%) 2008: McCain 4,479,328 (55%) Obama 3,528,633 (44%)
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UTAH
On the Ballot
RACE GOV SEN^ DEMOCRAT Peter Cooke Scott Howell REPUBLICAN Gary Herbert* Orrin Hatch* RATING Solid R Solid R
Nickname: Beehive State Capital: Salt Lake City Polls Close: 10:00 PM ET
Jim Matheson*
Governor: Gary Herbert (R) Lt. Governor: Greg Bell (R) U.S. Senators: Orrin Hatch (R) Mike Lee (R)
Registered Voters: 1,458,057 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Bush 663,742 (72%) Kerry 241,199 (26%) 2008: McCain 596,030 (63%) Obama 327,670 (34%)
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VERMONT
On the Ballot
RACE GOV DEMOCRAT Peter Shumlin* REPUBLICAN Randy Brock RATING Solid D
SEN
John MacGovern
Solid D
Governor: Peter Shumlin (D) Secretary of State: Jim Condos (D) U.S. Senators: Patrick Leahy (D) Bernie Sanders (I)
Mark Donka
Solid D
Registered Voters: 444,550 Party ID No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Kerry 184,067 (59%) Bush 121,180 (39%) 2008: Obama 219,262 (67%) McCain 98,974 (30%)
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VIRGINIA
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ DEMOCRAT Tim Kaine REPUBLICAN George Allen RATING Toss Up
Population: 8,001024 White: 64.8% Black: 19% Hispanic: 7.9% Asian: 5.5%
HOUSE VA-1 VA-2 VA-3 VA-4 VA-5 VA-6 VA-7 VA-8 VA-9 VA-10 VA-11
Andy Schmookler
Rob Wittman* Scott Rigell Dean Longo J. Randy Forbes* Robert Hurt* Bob Goodlatte* Eric Cantor* J. Patrick Murray Morgan Griffith* Frank Wolf* Chris Perkins
Solid R Likely R Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid D
Governor: Bob McDonnell (R) Sec. of State: Janet Polarek (R) U.S. Senators: Jim Webb (D) Mark Warner (D)
Registered Voters: 5,159,562 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Bush 1,716,959 (54%) Kerry 1,454,742 (45%) 2008: Obama 1,959,532 (53%) McCain 1,725,005 (46%)
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WASHINGTON
On the Ballot
RACE GOV^ SEN DEMOCRAT Jay Inslee Maria Cantwell* REPUBLICAN Rob McKenna
Michael Baumgartner
Population: 6,724,540 White: 72.5% Black: 3.4% Hispanic: 11.2% Asian: 7.1%
HOUSE WA-1^ WA-2 WA-3 WA-4 WA-5 WA-6^ WA-7 WA-8 WA-9 WA-10^
*incumbent ^open seat
Suzan DelBene Rick Larsen* Jon Haughen Mary Baechler Rich Cowan Derek Kilmer Jim McDermott* Karen Porterfield Adam Smith* Denny Heck
John Koster Dan Matthews Jaime Herrera* Doc Hastings* Cathy Rodgers* Bill Driscoll Ron Bemis Dave Reichert* Jim Postma Dick Muri
Lean D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely D Solid D Solid R Solid D Solid D
Governor: Christine Gregoire (D) Sec. of State: Sam Reed (R) U.S. Senators: Patty Murray (D) Maria Cantwell (D)
Registered Voters: 4,184,600 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Kerry 1,510,201 (53%) Bush 1,304,894 (46%) 2008: Obama 1,750,848 (58%) McCain 1,229,216 (40%)
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WEST VIRGINIA
On the Ballot
RACE GOV SEN DEMOCRAT
Earl Ray Tomblin*
Joe Manchin*
Governor: Earl Ray Tomblin (D) Secretary of State: Natalie Tennant (D) U.S. Senators: Jay Rockefeller (D) Joe Manchin (D)
Registered Voters: 1,230,585 Party ID: D: 638,086 (51.90%) R: 353,179 (28.70%) Other: 239,320 (19.4) Presidential: 2004: Bush 423,778 (56%) Kerry 326,541 (43%) 2008: McCain 397,466 (56%) Obama 303,857 (43%)
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WISCONSIN
On the Ballot
RACE SEN^ DEMOCRAT Tammy Baldwin REPUBLICAN Tommy Thompson RATING Toss Up
Population: 5,686,986 White: 83.3% Black: 6.2% Hispanic: 5.9% Asian: 2.3%
Rob Zerban Mark Pocan Ron Kind* Gwen Moore* Dave Heaster Joe Kallas Pat Kreitlow Jamie Wall
Paul Ryan* Chad Lee Ray Boland Dan Sebring Jim Sensenbrenner* Tom Petri* Sean Duffy* Reid Ribble*
Governor: Scott Walker (R) Secretary of State: Doug La Follette (D) U.S. Senators: Herb Kohl (D) Ron Johnson (R)
Registered Voters: 3,453,902 Party ID: No Party ID Presidential: 2004: Kerry 1,489,504 (50%) Bush 1,478,120 (49%) 2008: Obama 1,677,211 (56%) McCain 1,262,393 (42%)
143
WYOMING
On the Ballot
RACE SEN HOUSE WY-AL DEMOCRAT Tim Chestnut REPUBLICAN John Burrasso* RATING Solid R
Chris Henrichsen
Cynthia Lummis*
Solid R
Population: 563,626 White: 85.9% Black: 0.8% Hispanic: 8.9% Asian: 0.3% Native American: 2.1%
Governor: Matt Mead (R) Secretary of State: Max Maxfield (R) U.S. Senators: Michael Enzi (R) John Barrasso (R)
Registered Voters: 228,401 Party ID: D: 48,731 (21%) R: 154,399 (68%) Other: 25,271 (11%) Presidential: 2004: Bush 167,629 (69%) Kerry 70,776 (29%) 2008: McCain 164,958 (65%) Obama 82,868 (33%)
SOURCES: Secretaries of State and Boards of Elections for each state, The Almanac of American Politics 2010, The Green Papers, National Association of Secretaries of State, George Mason University Turnout project.
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5. ENACTING CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM (CALIFORNIA): Proposition 32 aims to make key changes to campaign finance laws in California. If passed, neither unions nor corporations would be allowed to donate directly to state and local political candidates; employee payroll deductions could not be used for political purposes; and the law would prohibit government contractors from donating to candidates whove helped them secure a contract. Opponents of this reform are fearful that, if the ballot proposition passes, the voices of Super PACs and special interest groups will be louder than ever before. 6. OUTLAWING AFFIRMATIVE ACTION (OKLAHOMA): State Question #759 will appear on ballots across Oklahoma in November, and it asks voters whether or not affirmative action programs in the state should be banned. The three areas targeted by the amendment are employment, education, and contracting. If passed, the ban on affirmative action programs would extend to the state, its agencies, counties, cities, towns, school districts, and other subdivisions. 7. BANNING FEDERAL FUNDS FOR ABORTIONS (FLORIDA): Voters in Florida will decide on a constitutional amendment that would ban the use public funds for abortions, unless it's performed in order to save the mothers life. The amendment also notes, in regards to abortion, that the states constitution when it comes to abortion cannot be interpreted to be broader in scope than the United States Constitution. The amendment must receive 60% voter approval to be adopted. 8. ABOLISHING THE DEATH PENALTY (CALIFORNIA): Californians will have the chance to abolish the death penalty as the maximum punishment for murder. If passed, Proposition 34 would make the maximum criminal punishment in the state life in prison with no possibility for parole. According to an official report put out by the states Legislative Analyst, if the amendment passes it would save the state $130 million annually. 9. REQUIRING VOTER ID (MINNESOTA): The state will decide if voters in future elections will be required to show a government-issued photo ID before voting. The measure also requires that the state make photo IDs available to those without a government-issued ID, at no charge. 10. RELIGIOUS FUNDING (FLORIDA): If passed, Amendment 8 would allow public funds in Florida to be used by religious organizations that provide public services. The amendment would repeal what is currently known in Florida as the Blaine Amendment, which prohibits state funding of religious organizations and religious schools. The amendment must receive 60% voter approval to be adopted.
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