EC2096 Vle
EC2096 Vle
EC2096 Vle
20th century
D.E. Baines
EC2096, 2790096
2012
Undergraduate study in
Economics, Management,
Finance and the Social Sciences
This subject guide is for a 200 course offered as part of the University of London
International Programmes in Economics, Management, Finance and the Social Sciences.
This is equivalent to Level 5 within the Framework for Higher Education Qualifications in
England, Wales and Northern Ireland (FHEQ).
For more information about the University of London International Programmes
undergraduate study in Economics, Management, Finance and the Social Sciences, see:
www.londoninternational.ac.uk
This guide was prepared for the University of London International Programmes by:
D.E. Baines, BSc (Econ), Reader in Economic History, Department of Economic History,
London School of Economics and Political Science.
This is one of a series of subject guides published by the University. We regret that due to
pressure of work the author is unable to enter into any correspondence relating to, or arising
from, the guide. If you have any comments on this subject guide, favourable or unfavourable,
please use the form at the back of this guide.
Contents
Contents
ii
Contents
Chapter 7: The First World War and the international economy .......................... 73
What this chapter is about ........................................................................................... 73
Objectives ................................................................................................................... 73
Learning outcomes ...................................................................................................... 73
Essential reading ........................................................................................................ 73
Further reading............................................................................................................ 73
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 74
7.1 War economies and the direct effects of the First World War ................................... 74
7.2 The long-run economic effects of the First World War.............................................. 77
7.3 Long-run trade problems ....................................................................................... 78
7.4 Long-run capital flow problems.............................................................................. 80
7.5 Inflation ............................................................................................................... 81
7.6 The new gold standard .......................................................................................... 82
7.7 Political problems .................................................................................................. 82
Summary ..................................................................................................................... 83
A reminder of your learning outcomes.......................................................................... 83
Questions .................................................................................................................... 83
Chapter 8: The world economic and financial crisis, 192933 ............................. 85
What this chapter is about ........................................................................................... 85
Objectives .................................................................................................................. 85
Learning outcomes ...................................................................................................... 85
Essential reading ......................................................................................................... 85
Further reading............................................................................................................ 86
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 86
8.1 What was the long-run context of the crisis? .......................................................... 86
8.2 How serious was the Depression? .......................................................................... 87
8.3 What happened in the USA? .................................................................................. 87
8.4 What happened in Germany?................................................................................. 88
8.5 What happened in primary producing countries? .................................................... 88
8.6 What went wrong for Brazilian coffee producers? ................................................... 89
8.7 How did the Depression spread through the world? ............................................... 90
8.8 How did a banking crisis finish off the gold standard? ........................................... 92
8.9 Had the gold standard made the crisis worse? ....................................................... 93
8.10 How could the crisis have been avoided before 1929? ......................................... 94
8.11 Aftermath ............................................................................................................ 95
8.12 Overview ............................................................................................................. 95
Summary ..................................................................................................................... 95
A reminder of your learning outcomes.......................................................................... 96
Questions .................................................................................................................... 96
Chapter 9: Government intervention, recovery and the international
economy in the 1930s .......................................................................................... 97
What this chapter is about ........................................................................................... 97
Objectives ................................................................................................................... 97
Learning outcomes ...................................................................................................... 97
Essential reading ......................................................................................................... 97
Further reading............................................................................................................ 98
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 98
9.1 Crisis and response in the USA .............................................................................. 98
9.2 The effect of American policy on the international economy .................................. 100
9.3 The UK and Germany ........................................................................................... 101
iii
Contents
vi
the country from overseas investments. GNP is easier to measure now than
in the past. Nevertheless we have good estimates for most countries from
about 1870.
1.5.9 Entrepreneurs
These are people who take risks to make a profit. They are not the
same as inventors, although they may use inventions. But they have to
see a market, raise finance and organise production. Usually the main
incentive is profit, but governments have often engaged in entrepreneurial
behaviour. Obtaining and using capital is an important part of the risk an
entrepreneur takes.
1.5.18 Contagion
In a depression there is a fall in income, investment and growth. But the
most damaging effect would be a collapse of a major bank or banks. Since
all banks have large funds with other banks, the collapse of one bank
is likely to lead to the collapse of other banks. The collapse of Lehman
Brothers in 2008 was a major example of this. The US government
allowed Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt but compensated those banks
(or other institutions) who were owed money by Lehman. In other words,
nowadays, contagion makes it very close to essential that the government
will step in. (This usually means that the government will increase money
supply.) In some circumstances the government may nationalise, or partly
nationalise, the banks.
1.5.23 Elasticity
Elasticity shows the effect of a change in one variable on another variable.
It has many forms. For example, price elasticity shows how much more of
a commodity will be purchased if the price falls and how much less will
be purchased if the price rises. If, for example, a 10 per cent fall in the
price leads to more than a 10 per cent rise in purchases, demand is said to
be price elastic. An example would be the sales of textiles in a relatively
poor country. If, on the other hand, a 10 per cent fall in the price leads to
less than a 10 per cent rise in purchases, the demand is said to be price
inelastic. An example of this would be the demand for food in a relatively
rich country.
Note what happens to total revenue (price X quantity). When price
increases, total revenue falls if demand is price elastic. In contrast, when
price increases total revenue rises if demand is price inelastic.
Elasticity may also relate to income. If a rise in income of 10 per cent
leads to an increase in sales of more than 10 per cent then demand for
that good is said to be income elastic. An example would be the demand
for health care in rich countries.
Chapter 8
We look at the international economic crisis of 192933. We examine the
spread of the crisis through the world economy, its causes, and why it was
not possible to use (macro) economic policy to contain it. We explain why
the Depression was more serious in some countries than in others, why the
rate of recovery was also different and why national economies recovered
faster from the Depression than the international economy. We also discuss
the changes in economic theory and their influence on economic policy.
Chapter 9
We look at the economic history of the Second World War, particularly the
successes and failures of the main economies. We look once more at the
nature of war economies and the relationship between the economy and
strategy.
Chapter 10
We examine the development of the international monetary system and
of international economic cooperation in the post war years (194552).
We discuss the changes to the Bretton Woods agreements and why
the agreements took a long time to implement. Then we look at the
development of the international monetary system in the later twentieth
century, including the end of fixed exchange rates and the change to the
floating exchange rate system of the late twentieth century. We analyse the
causes and effects of the oil crises.
Chapter 11
We look at the reasons why economic growth was so fast in the major
European economies up to the early 1970s and why growth rates then
fell. We discuss why some economies have grown faster than others. Then
we look at the growth of the European Economic Community. We look at
changes in economic policy in the post-war period, particularly the end of
the Keynesian consensus and the fashion for supply-side economics in the
United States and Britain.
Chapter 12
We consider Japanese industrial performance, particularly the position of
Japan in the world motor industry since the Second World War, showing
how Japanese innovations and industrial organisation contrasted with
American.
Chapter 13
We explain deindustrialisation and why services have become more
important than manufacturing in national economies.
Chapter 14
We show the development of industrial technology from the early factory
system through mass production to the flexible production systems of
today.
Chapter 15
We try to answer the question: is economic growth easier or harder to
transfer to poorer countries in the twenty-first century compared with the
twentieth century? This returns us to the relationship between trade and
development with which we started the module.
9
Chapter 16
We show how China developed into the most important manufacturing
country in the world and how Japan developed extremely fast but in
recent years development has stalled.
Chapter 17
We show the main causes of the recent financial crisis, and how it spread
from one country to another.
1.8.2 Try to link the subject guide chapters together as you study
The chapters are designed to introduce you to the most important and the
most interesting parts of the subject. If you follow the guide right through
you will have thought about most of the important parts of the syllabus
and the main features of the development of the international economy.
The chapters are not self-contained and it is a mistake to think of each
chapter as a discrete piece of material, or as an answer to a particular
question that might come up in an examination.
For example, to learn about the reasons why the international economy
deteriorated after the First World War (see Chapter 7), you need to have
read the material on international economic institutions in Chapter 4.
To learn about the causes of the world economic crisis of 192933 (see
Chapter 8), you need to read first Chapter 7. Pay particular attention
to the earlier chapters. They contain material that will help your
understanding of the later part of the subject guide.
If you buy only one book, buy this one. It is a simple but comprehensive
account of the development of the international economy. It will not tell
you much about the national economies, however, and you will need to
look at other books to find out about them.
Other important books which you could consider purchasing:
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395].
11
Detailed reading references in this subject guide refer to the editions of the
set textbooks listed above. New editions of one or more of these textbooks
may have been published by the time you study this course. You can use
a more recent edition of any of the books; use the detailed chapter and
section headings and the index to identify relevant readings. Also check
the virtual learning environment (VLE) regularly for updated guidance on
readings.
The VLE
The VLE, which complements this subject guide, has been designed to
enhance your learning experience, providing additional support and a
sense of community. It forms an important part of your study experience
with the University of London and you should access it regularly.
The VLE provides a range of resources for EMFSS courses:
Self-testing activities: Doing these allows you to test your own
understanding of subject material.
Electronic study materials: The printed materials that you receive from
the University of London are available to download, including updated
reading lists and references.
Past examination papers and Examiners commentaries: These provide
advice on how each examination question might best be answered.
A student discussion forum: This is an open space for you to discuss
interests and experiences, seek support from your peers, work
collaboratively to solve problems and discuss subject material.
Videos: There are recorded academic introductions to the subject,
interviews and debates and, for some courses, audio-visual tutorials
and conclusions.
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14
1.13 Summing up
You do not have to read every word of the textbooks or the additional
readings mentioned in the guide. You may do more work on some chapters
rather than others, as you choose. But it is important for you to remember
that the guide has been designed only to introduce you to a very big
subject.
Remember also that this subject guide is not a set of examination notes. It
does not, on its own, contain sufficient material to enable you
to pass the examination.
Before the examination you will be sent the Examiners commentaries and
past examination papers for this course. It is a valuable resource. Make
sure that you read it carefully.
15
Notes
16
Objectives
To:
explain the factors that led to modern economic growth
make clear the distinction between growth and industrialisation
show what factors encouraged growth to transfer from the central
economy (Britain) to a peripheral economy, the USA.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading,
you should be able to:
explain what is meant by modern economic growth and why it became
a feature of countries over the last 200 years
discuss how this relates to the development of the international
economy
outline the mechanism by which economic growth was transferred
from one economy to another
demonstrate why some countries caught up with more developed
countries earlier than others did
use economic concepts like the gains from trade and comparative
advantage to analyse how the international economy developed.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.629.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] Introduction pp.925 and Chapter 8 pp.12031.
Further reading
Kemp, T. The climax of capitalism. (London: Longman, 1990)
[ISBN 0582494230 pbk] pp.18.
17
Introduction
We look at several processes that were under way during the nineteenth
century. There was the establishment of what we call modern economic
growth, meaning a rapid and continuous process of growth per head of the
population. We see how this began in Britain and spread to other European
countries. Next we consider the reasons behind this growth and see how
industrialisation is part of the process.
Then we look at how growth spread to countries on the periphery of the
international economy. We see how the preconditions for modern growth
were present in nineteenth-century USA. As US growth accelerated, trade
expanded on the basis of specialisation and comparative advantage. This led
to gains from the trade in the USA and elsewhere (see 1.5.6).
Finally, we emphasise that growth and its preconditions form the basis for
rising prosperity, while trade expands as a result of growth. Trade, without
these preconditions, does not lead to modern economic growth. This is as
true today as it was in the nineteenth century.
2.1.3 What makes it more likely that economic growth in one country leads to growth in other countries?
favourable international institutions
low barriers to trade
international peace and security.
Pause and think
Why do more resources often lead to modern economic growth? Try to put this in your own
words before reading on.
18
By the early part of the nineteenth century, there were already many
European nation states. Chief among these were Britain, France, the
Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Spain and Portugal.
By 1914, Italy, Germany, Norway, Belgium and Greece had joined the list.
The rest of Europe became organised into nation states after 1918.
Not all features of the nation state were beneficial to economic growth
(the destruction created by wars is one example), however, nation states
did offer three advantages:
The governments were more trustworthy.
Property rights and contracts were easier to enforce, and more likely to
be enforced.
Bankers and traders found it easier to accumulate capital.
Pause and think
Consider the following situation and questions:
You enter a contract with another business person. You need to know that the contract
would be honoured. In other words, that your property rights in the contract would be
protected.
If your trading partner does not fulfil his or her obligations, how can you be confident
that the legal process will help you gain redress?
How does this point relate to the nation state?
An entrepreneur is more likely to enter contracts, for example, to
introduce new technology or begin trading voyages when the state is a
helpful and benign influence. He or she needs to be confident that the
state itself will not arbitrarily confiscate property.
In other words the cost of making transactions in western European
countries was lower than in most of the rest of the world, where the state
(if it existed) was different. (1.5.14 tells you what transactions costs are.)
Consider a non-nation state. In 1820 there were a number of non-nation
states in Europe (Turkey, Austria and Russia). Elsewhere there was the
Chinese Empire and Japan, which was cut off from the world, plus the
various colonies of the imperial powers.
Pause and think
Why do you think that these states were less encouraging to economic growth? After all,
they all had codes of law.
Although they protected property rights with legal codes, these could
be changed according to the rulers pleasure.
If an empire was multinational, some nationalities were often treated
better than others.
As a result, property rights were less reliable and lending money (e.g.
putting it in the bank) was less attractive.
In contrast, in Britain and the USA the business community had, by 1820,
become an important part of government. This made it less likely that the
government would act in an arbitrary way.
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2.3 Industrialisation
By 1820 modern economic growth in western Europe was established,
though in most countries it was still rather slow say about 1 per cent per
head per year. By about 1900, it was faster, but still less than 2 per cent
per head per year. This acceleration came about through the spread of
industry a process known as industrialisation.
Pause and think
The first signs of modern economic growth can be found in Europe much earlier than
1900. Why, then, did the process of industrialisation take so long to become established?
The reason why industrialisation came late was that until the late
eighteenth century, economies could not produce large amounts of energy.
Most energy came from waterpower, animal or human power. The wind
provided a cheaper source of power for ocean transport.
Pause and think
Watermills and windmills have been used for hundreds of years. Why werent they used to
power industrialisation?
These were not able to generate sufficient energy for industrialisation.
Modern economic growth is rapid and continuous. It requires new
sources of energy. The problem was that exploiting most existing energy
sources needed labour. That meant competition for labour with farms and
therefore endangered the production of food.
In economic terms, the amount of energy available was a constraint on
development.
The breakthrough came with an increase in agricultural productivity,
thanks to a number of innovations made much earlier. Higher agricultural
production allowed labour and other resources to be diverted into other
sectors of the economy without reducing food production. In addition, the
production of coal after about 1780 in Britain and later in Belgium, France
and parts of Germany, enabled modern growth to spread and accelerate.
Once the energy problem was solved, major changes in engineering and
in transport (e.g. the railway and steam shipping) were possible. These
transformed the international economy. In the period 18201850, Britain,
followed by Belgium and parts of Germany and France, experienced very
high growth rates in iron production, engineering, coal and textiles.
The acceleration in growth rates is frequently called, the Industrial
Revolution. Growth was fastest in textiles, production of which became
mechanised, in iron and in engineering. However, growth was much more
widely based. Non-mechanised industries could expand by taking on more
labour and agricultural productivity measured both by returns to labour
and returns to land increased although not by as much as in industry.
2.3.1 Summing up
Modern economic growth began in western European nation states
during the period 17801820.
We now know that a characteristic of modern growth is that it becomes
permanent and continuous.
Growth rates were modest by present day standards (around 1 per
cent). Nevertheless, we can now see that a major historic change
occurred.
23
24
But United States exports were not enough to pay for US imports. In
other words, the USA had a balance of payments deficit (we look at the
balance of payments in Chapter 4).
Britain lent money to the USA which financed the deficit. Note that,
in order to encourage this flow of credit, US interest rates had to be
higher than British interest rates.
The relationship between, what we call, a central country like Britain, and
a peripheral country, which the USA was at the time, raises several points.
2.4.1 Catch up
Once one (central) country industrialised, the position of many other
economies was transformed. It became easier for them to develop that
is to catch up. But we know that in the nineteenth century, only a few
countries managed to catch up. This is because of the need for social
capability in a peripheral economy that tries to catch up with the centre.
The peripheral economy has to be able to take advantage of the
connection with the more developed economy. This means having similar
institutions to those in the central country. Such institutions include a
benign government, the enforcement of contracts, a comparable level
of literacy and some useful raw materials. Without these, trade with the
centre does not lead to modern economic growth. In an extreme case,
trade leads to a plantation economy and/or colonial exploitation.
In other words, the nature of the peripheral economy was, in the
nineteenth century, the determinant of whether trade led to modern
growth.
For example, Americans were rich, well educated and had a strong
government well before the USA industrialised. They had the right
institutions and could not return to being an economic colony of Britain.
Some smaller, weaker countries did become economic colonies, however.
25
USA to Britain. The two countries specialised in those areas where they
had a comparative advantage.
Questions
1. Why did Britain introduce free trade in the mid-nineteenth century?
2. How did energy production constrain the rate of economic growth
before industrialisation?
3. Were there any features of the nation state in western Europe that
made economic growth easier?
27
Notes
28
Chapter 3: The development of an international economy by 1900: trade, capital and labour
Objectives
To explain:
why trade grew so rapidly
what role labour migration played
what stimulated capital flows.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain why international trade grew so rapidly
analyse the reasons for the high levels of both international investment
and international migration in the period before 1914
apply the idea of comparative advantage to these movements
explain the effect of migration on different economies
account for the relatively low barriers to the mobility of factors of
production in the international economy 18701914.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.137 and pp.6571.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk]. Read Chapters 1, 2 and 3 and in particular the
following pages which relate to the sections below: pp.1224, pp.3443,
pp.4460, pp.6777.
29
Further reading
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic relations
since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second edition [ISBN
0745009352 pbk] pp.3149, pp.5464, pp.97101, pp.12026, pp.1336,
pp.14053.
Introduction
During the period from 1870 to 1914 world trade grew by about a third
per head per ten years. World output (GDP) grew by only seven per cent
per person per decade, slower than trade but still impressive. The world
did not see such rapid growth in trade again until 194573.
Growth of trade and output were already under way in the 1820s. In this
chapter we examine why the increase took place. The chapter has four
main sections:
characteristics of the international economy
international trade
overseas investment
international migration.
A problem for us is that we have the benefit of hindsight. It seems almost
inevitable today that the international economy would have grown in that
period. Population was growing, new production processes were coming on
stream and, in particular, there was great development of steam transport.
But it was not inevitable that the international economy would grow.
In this and subsequent chapters, we see how beneficial conditions
encouraged the international economy to grow. Several relate to one
country, the UK. The UK was the first industrial economy and it could have
turned inward towards domestic production. It did not do so.
Instead, the UK became the dominant trading nation, with a large empire
which lasted well into the twentieth century. The UK also played a major
part in running the worlds monetary payments and credit. At the same
time the UK put up no barriers to trade, or any hindrances to the outflow
of labour or capital. It is worth remembering that the international
economy could have stagnated if different policies had been adopted.
In the twentieth century, the UKs share of world exports and its share
of world overseas investment declined. This meant that its influence in
the international economy also declined. Once that happened, it was
important for the smooth functioning of the international economy that
new institutions were created to take over the role which the UK had once
had. As we see in Chapters 8, 12 and 13, this proved difficult.
In this chapter we look at the period 18701914, when UK influence was
at its height.
Chapter 3: The development of an international economy by 1900: trade, capital and labour
There were fewer restrictions than at any period in history except perhaps
in very recent years.
3.1.1 Goods
Countries did have tariffs, but they rarely discriminated the level of
tariffs faced by one countrys exports was usually the same as the level
faced by other countries. If a discriminatory tariff is used it means that
imports might not come from the cheapest overseas producer. This reduces
income.
3.1.2 Labour
There were no restrictions on international migration by people of
European origins. On the other hand, there were serious restrictions on
non-white emigration, even within the British Empire.
3.1.3 Capital
There were no restrictions, such as exchange controls, on international
capital movements.
All the major world currencies were freely convertible into each other at
fixed rates. The reasons why there was monetary stability are discussed in
Chapter 4. In this chapter we concentrate on the three factors above.
3.2.1 Peace
Between the end of the Franco-Prussian War in 1871 and the outbreak of
the First World War in 1914 there were no wars between any of the great
powers (Britain, France, USA, Russia and Germany).
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Chapter 3: The development of an international economy by 1900: trade, capital and labour
The combined effects of the fall in transport costs and the increase
in information was to create an international market in the basic
commodities. Take wheat as an example.
Let us assume that there was a very good harvest in Argentina and a
poorer one in the USA.
The price of wheat would be lower in Buenos Aires than the price in,
say, Chicago.
At the same time, the information about the Argentine harvest would
be available in, say, London. Ships would go to Buenos Aires to buy
wheat at a low price.
In this way, the harvest in Argentina affected the price in the USA.
Ultimately, the price of wheat anywhere in the world was the same
except for transport costs, which for bulk commodities like wheat
were low. Futures markets subsequently developed, allowing people
to trade in basic commodities worldwide before the crops were even
harvested.
Activity
Which of the following goods and commodities are commonly traded internationally
today and which are not? Can you think why?
cement
bricks
steel sheets
potatoes
tropical root crop foods like cassava.
Cement and bricks have a low value-to-weight ratio and are seldom worth
trading internationally. Steel sheets are traded as long as they are of high
quality (and value) to make it worthwhile. Potatoes are easily stored and
graded so do get traded. Cassava is heavier and more uneven, so it is more
difficult to trade. In short, it depends on the value, the weight, and the
ease with which the product may be bought and sold. Then, if one country
has an advantage in its production trade develops. Otherwise it doesnt.
Note that a country only needs to have a comparative advantage to
make trade worthwhile (see 1.5.5).
3.2.5 Specialisation
One of the main gains from trade is a consequence of specialisation.
Consider what happened in UK, in the period from 1870 to 1914.
Food imports increased because of the development of virgin lands,
first in the western part of the USA and then in other countries, such as
Canada. Note that this would not have been possible without transport
development, particularly the railway.
In turn, agriculture in the UK declined because it became cheaper for
basic food to be imported rather than produced at home.
Of course, if the British government had decided to protect British farmers,
there would have been fewer imports. But the UK did not protect food
imports (see Chapter 5).
Imports meant that basic food costs in the UK fell by half in thirty years
(18701900). Since, at the time, British people, on average, spent about
half of their income on food, this had a significant effect on the standard
33
Chapter 3: The development of an international economy by 1900: trade, capital and labour
This is why the massive rise of population in the industrial countries and
increased demand for commodities did not lead to rising food prices.
Activity
Draw a supply and demand diagram for the world supply of food. The diagram should
show:
a demand curve that shifts to the right as population increased
a supply curve that shifts to the right as new areas come into production in new areas
an equilibrium price for food.
Finally, comment on the diagram:
Is the price of food falling?
Under what conditions would it fall?
Think about the increase in supply compared with demand, and if you know a bit more
economics think about the elasticity of demand. We know that world food prices fell c.
18701900. What are the implications for the diagram?
Bear in mind that food prices did begin to rise after 1900, once the best
land in the regions of recent settlement was taken up and farmed.
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36
Chapter 3: The development of an international economy by 1900: trade, capital and labour
No. A high proportion were young adults. They entered the new countries at the
peak of their productive and consuming power. In other words, the cost of their
upbringing had been paid in the country from which they came. They were a free
gift of human capital from Europe.
Summary
In this chapter we cover a lot of ground. Even so, we do not have space to
expand and discuss some important and interesting issues. You should make sure
you complete the reading before moving on.
We have argued that there is a two-way relationship between the growth of
individual countries and the growth of the international economy.
In some countries trade based on exporting raw material led to a lot of
economic growth. In other countries to much less.
European countries, especially the UK, experienced growth at home that led
to an expansion of exports and created a demand for imports.
Many of the capital flows in the period were reliant on the UK export surplus.
This recycling of export earnings was a vital part of the development of the
international economy.
Labour migration had costs and benefits in both the country the emigrants left
and the one in which they arrived. It was only an unambiguous benefit to the
latter.
Questions
1. Assess the relationship between the spread of agriculture into previously
uncultivated land and the growth of industry in the UK and other European
countries before 1914.
2. Examine the effect of transport development in the creation of an
international market in the basic commodities in the early twentieth century.
3. Why was the level of international investment high in the early twentieth
century?
38
Chapter 4: Institutions that underpinned the international economy before the First World War
Objectives
To explain:
the implications of fixed exchange rates in the historical context
how the gold standard worked in practice.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain why businessmen and governments were determined to
maintain fixed exchange rates
outline what it was that allowed fixed exchange rates (i.e. the gold
standard) to be maintained
discuss whether the gold standard worked because central banks
followed a set of rules or for some other reason
explain how the flow of capital made it easier for the gold standard to
work, and give examples.
Essential reading
Eichengreen, B. Globalizing capital. A history of the international monetary
system. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780691139371] pp.1542.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] Chapters 6 and 7, pp.91119.
Further reading
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.16174. (This section is rather more
difficult than that in Kenwood and Lougheed.)
39
Introduction
The international economy in the period from 1870 to 1914 was
characterised by three institutions. (An institution is defined here as
something manmade for a purpose.) Laws, rules and organisations are
all examples of institutions. As we see in this chapter, there are three
institutions which were closely linked together:
free trade
multilateral settlements
fixed exchange rates.
40
Chapter 4: Institutions that underpinned the international economy before the First World War
In the main, UK exporters were able to maintain their sales in the face
of tariffs and foreign competition. This was, partly, because the world
market was growing fast, and partly because UK exporters were very good
at finding new products and new markets. (UK exports still continued to
grow, although the UKs share of total world exports was falling as other
countries began to compete.)
Owes 70
B
Owes 20
41
Chapter 4: Institutions that underpinned the international economy before the First World War
they chose to. The point is that the central banks were usually willing to
subject themselves to the discipline of the price-specie-flow mechanism.
We will explain why this was later.
SHORT-RUN PROBLEM
A
BoP Surplus
BoP Deficit
Gold IN
Gold OUT
l
O
I
Money Supply
Money Supply
Prices
Prices
BoP Equilibrium
Rules of the game
43
44
Chapter 4: Institutions that underpinned the international economy before the First World War
GB Capital exports
CURRENT PAYMENTS
GB
CURRENT
A/C
SURPLUS
USA &
OTHERS
CURRENT A/C
DEFICIT
K FLOW
46
We explore another
attempt to set up
a set of rules, the
1944 Bretton Woods
conference, in Chapter
11.
Chapter 4: Institutions that underpinned the international economy before the First World War
The position of the UK economy was very important. The UK was the
largest exporter of both goods and services and the greatest provider of
overseas investment; 40 per cent of the total, as late as 1914. The UK had
a balance of payments surplus; exports of goods and services exceeded
imports, and earnings from foreign investment exceeded new investment.
Pause and think
Do you think that if the largest trading country always had a surplus, the gold
standard could not have worked properly?
In what direction was gold and foreign exchange moving? What was the effect on
central bank reserves in the other countries?
How was it possible for the world to live with the UK surplus?
The point was the British surplus was continuously recycled. Look at
Figure 4.3 again. The UK had a permanent balance of payments surplus.
Therefore other countries, such as, in the late nineteenth century, the USA,
must have had permanent deficits.
Under the gold standard, a deficit country had to choose between
leaving the gold standard, as mentioned above, or accepting higher
interest rates and lower output.
The US growth rate would have had to be lower. But in reality, the
USA could always finance its deficit (i.e. pay for its excess of imports)
because it was always possible to borrow from the UK.
The UK was a free-trade country. The UK imported the bulk of its food and
raw materials. This meant that if a country borrowed from the UK, it was
relatively easy to obtain sterling to pay the interest by exporting to the UK.
In other words, in effect, the world was using a sterling standard, rather
than a gold standard.
Pause and think
Can you think of a later example where large balance of payments surpluses needed to
be recycled?
It is not surprising that most countries held their foreign exchange reserves
in sterling rather than gold.
Summary
As we said at the beginning of this chapter, the gold standard worked
because:
There was strong trade growth which made it easier for countries to
fix their exchange rates. Trade growth made it easier to earn foreign
currency.
One country, the UK, had a persistent trade surplus. But this was not a
problem for other countries because the UK recycled the surplus.
There was a strong central currency, which was universally expected to
remain strong.
The gold standard could have been threatened if governments had
borrowed substantially, since this would have led to inflation. But
governments did not wish to borrow heavily.
48
Chapter 4: Institutions that underpinned the international economy before the First World War
Questions
1. Why were exchange rates fixed before the First World War?
2. Explain the reasons for the stability of the international monetary
system before the First World War.
49
Notes
50
Objectives
To:
show the nature of the modern business corporation and how it
developed in the twentieth century
explain how and why American industrial development took a different
character to either the UK or continental European models.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activity, you should be able to:
explain how far UK manufacturing became a model for other countries
explain why mass production first started in the USA
suggest and evaluate reasons why the US industrial structure changed
show how US industry differed from UK industry before the First World
War.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.6974.
Eichengreen, B. Globalizing capital. A history of the international monetary
system. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780691139371] pp.1542.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] pp.7891, pp.12031.
Further reading
Blackford, M.G. The rise of modern business in Great Britain, the United States
and Japan. (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North California Press, 1988)
[ISBN 0807842028 pbk] pp.5163, pp.724, pp.958.
Kemp, T. The climax of capitalism. (London: Longman, 1990)
[ISBN 0582494230 pbk] pp.1219, pp.2530, pp.3841.
51
Introduction
In this chapter we see why the manufacturing sector expanded in the
late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We explain why American
manufacturing was not a copy of UK manufacturing, and why the
development of assembly-line production occurred first in the USA and
not in the UK or continental Europe. In the chapter, we also discuss
the development of new organisational structures in industry, another
American phenomenon of the period.
UK
32
14
USA
23
36
Germany
13
16
Other countries
32
34
had a much higher per capita income than either the USA or Germany in
1870, its HDI index, although higher, was not proportionally as high as
the difference in income. The disappointing social development (HDI) in
Britain partly explains the US, and later German, catch up.
Life expectancy at birth
0.33
Education index +
Adult literacy +
Gross number in schools
0.33
0.33
100
UK
USA
Germany
GDP per
capita
$3,263
$2,457
$1,913
Life
expectancy
48 yrs
44 yrs
36 yrs
Literacy
rate
64%
75%
80%
HDI
index
0.53
0.45
0.39
Activity
HDI measures education, among other things. Why might deficient education have led to
slower growth in Britain?
Three possible effects are:
Workers whose literacy and numeracy skills are weak are likely to be
less flexible and slower to learn new skills.
53
% in agriculture
15
50
50
49
54
55
Because they had only one task, each worker could become very
proficient at it. Nor did the workers have to spend time looking for
parts, tools etc. Hence there was an increase in output per worker
(labour productivity rose). Moreover, because each worker only had to
learn one task, it was easy to train them, which reduced the demand
for highly skilled labour, which was very expensive in the USA.
Mass production first started in industries where there was already a
continuous process, for example: paint making, sugar and food processing.
A famous early example was meat packing (canned food), which started in
Chicago.
This demonstrates that mass production was used long before its most
famous example: the Ford Car plant, which was built to manufacture
the Model T Ford in the early twentieth century. It was the most famous
example of the work of Frederick Taylor who was the key figure in the
development of mass production. (See below.)
5.2.1.1 Fords assembly line
The Model T Ford car is a classic example of a mass-produced consumer
product. Fords idea was to minimise costs by producing a very large
number of identical products, even in colour, which was black. What Ford
realised was that the same product would be bought for different reasons.
Many cars were bought by farmers and small-town businessmen, for
example.
The Model T Ford car could be both a consumer product (to take you and
your family on a picnic) and a factor of production (to take a sack of
potatoes to market). This meant that the cars could all be the same. In
turn, this allowed Ford to produce the high volume necessary to minimise
costs.
Figure 5.1 Model T production, before and after the assembly line, 1914
The introduction of the assembly line to the Ford plant in Detroit increased
labour productivity by about twelve times. But it was not easy to get the
assembly line to work. It took Henry Ford three years after he started
to produce the Model T to perfect his assembly lines. There were three
variables which had to be optimised:
the layout of the plant
the speed at which the line moved
the speed at which the workers worked.
The subdivision of production required a very high degree of management
control. Tasks had to be identified, incentives paid and quality maintained.
Time and motion studies, called scientific management, were common
56
in Ford plants. This was partly the work of Frederick Taylor and his
assistants. Taylor had been instrumental in optimising the layout of
mass production plants for many years. There was also another result
of his work. Before the onset of mass production, it had been difficult to
show those workers who worked hard and those who did not. But mass
production made it easy to see who was a good worker and who was not.
The less good workers were dismissed immediately.
57
58
Vertically intergrated
means that the raw
materials, the research
and the marketing
as well as the actual
production all come
from within the same
firm.
59
5.4 UK industry
We have seen that the UK economy was different. One consequence was
that firms in the UK operated on a much smaller scale than American
firms. Most British industries had far more firms than the same industries
in the USA.
Pause and think
Why did British industries have so many more firms than the equivalent ones in the USA?
It is easy to say the UK family-owned businesses would not give control to
managers, like in the USA. But this would be a travesty. Many companies
did give control to managers. And some US firms refused to do so. They
remained in family control. But remember the context. UK markets were
more segmented than American markets, partly because exports were
more important to UK industry than to the USA. So, on average, the firms
were smaller in the UK. The USA also had a large, protected domestic
market, quite homogeneous in tastes, which allowed greater economies of
scale. Remember also, the UK was considerable poorer than the USA in the
early twentieth century,
There is another point. We also know that the UK had more skilled
workers than the USA and they were paid less. Consequently, it was
cheaper for UK firms to use skilled workers to make small-scale, highquality, niche products as opposed to large-scale, mass-produced goods.
Summary
Mass production began in the USA. It was associated with changes in
finance, management and in the organisation of the firm. It was aided
by tariff protection. British industry did not have the same structure, had
no import protection, and in some respects the UK had an inappropriate
educational system.
Germany had a strong industrial structure and appropriate education, yet
still it did not match levels of productivity in the USA. This was because
the US resource environment and the size of the market were much more
favourable to large-scale production. Consequently, Germany found it
impossible to catch up in this period.
60
Questions
1. How far was the development of the UK economy in the nineteenth
century unique? Was the UK economy well placed to achieve high
productivity growth in the twentieth century?
2. Does an increase in bureaucracy in giant non-competitive companies
lead to more or less efficiency?
3. What happened to American industry when it was faced with new
technology in the late twentieth century? Were American companies
flexible enough to cope, for example, with Japanese competition?
61
Notes
62
Objectives
To:
round off our discussion of the pre-1914 international economy
explain the continuing importance of British trade
consider the effects of imperialism and Empire on the international
economy.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain how the UK remained the most important country in the
international economy
discuss why economic imperialism was more characteristic of the other
industrial countries than it was of the UK
discuss whether the colonies were disadvantaged compared with
independent countries
outline why the UK remained a free-trading economy rather than
a tariff-protected one, and say why this was beneficial to the
international economy.
Essential reading
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] pp.133147.
Further reading
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.1317 and pp.90113.
Kemp, T. The climax of capitalism. (London: Longman, 1990)
[ISBN 0582494230 pbk] pp.199202.
63
Introduction
This chapter examines gains from trade in the years before the First World
War, using mainly the example of the UK. We saw in Chapter 5 that the UK
economy was overtaken by the USA and Germany during the period from
1870 to 1914. Nevertheless, the UK remained the most important trading
country.
1899
12%
22%
33%
14%
1913
13%
27%
30%
12%
1929
21%
21%
23%
11%
UK
PPS
USA/W Europe
Money
a large export sector, but they also had more industry. There is some
evidence, therefore, that being a colony may have held back development.
Now try the next activity.
Activity
See if you can write answers to these two questions.
Was the fact that they were colonies the main reason for the slow development of
these countries?
Would India have been much richer in, say 1914, if it had been independent, for
example?
Think about the conditions that led to economic growth in Europe (see
Chapter 2). Do you think that many of these countries had the social
capability to develop, whether they were independent or not? In other
words, colonialism held back these colonies only if it retarded their social
capability.
The second question is much more difficult. Interestingly, many Indian
historians, in the main, no longer think that Indias colonial status to 1947
was the cause of its problems. This may be because the Indian economy
since 1947 has been very successful, with high growth rates. A large
proportion of the Indian population are still poor but India was very poor
in, say, 1900. It was also much poorer than Britain was in, say, 1820.
Development can be a long, slow process.
70
Summary
In this chapter we have suggested that the pattern of British trade
maximised income in the short run. Changing the British economy to
include more high-tech industry, would have involved short-term welfare
losses. We have also suggested that the UK did not exploit its colonies,
in the sense that they forced them to purchase British products. This
was not because of ideology, but because, given the choice, the colonies
would have purchased British manufactures anyway. They did not need to
be compelled to do so. Colonies of other countries could not buy British
manufactures. Hence, British colonies had an advantage and it was
important that they were in the British Empire and not another empire.
Questions
1. How was it possible for the UK to remain the most important country in
the international economy before the First World War? How important
was the British Empire to Britains pre-eminence in trade?
2. Assess the benefits to (a) the UK and (b) the international economy of
the UKs policy of free trade before the First World War.
3. What were the main economic advantages and disadvantages of
colonial status in the early twentieth century?
71
Notes
72
Objectives
To:
demonstrate how the war affected economic and financial systems
analyse the effects of war on different types of country
evaluate the long-term economic problems caused by the war.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain how the war was financed and the long-run economic problems
this led to
make an argument about why there was a high level of international
debt and why it proved so difficult to eradicate
give reasons why fixed exchange rates were difficult to establish.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.1349 and pp.14356.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] pp.17092.
Further reading
Aldcroft, D.H. The European economy, 19142000. (London: Routledge, 2001)
[ISBN 0415250633 pbk] pp.830 and pp.4654.
Feinstein, C.H., P. Temin and G. Toniolo The world economy between the world
wars. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780195307559 hbk] pp.2438.
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.17586 and pp.1948.
73
Introduction
The First World War began in August 1914 between France, the UK,
Russia, Belgium and Serbia (the allies) and Germany and AustriaHungary (the central powers). Other countries became involved Italy,
Romania and Portugal joined the allies and Bulgaria and Turkey joined
the central powers. In 1917 the USA finally joined the Allies, and Russia
collapsed into revolution.
It was called a world war because fighting had spread to the colonies;
countries such as India, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the French
colonies contributed large numbers of troops. Japan was also involved,
although only to a limited extent.
The war was the first total war. It involved, in some way, most of the
population of the main protagonists. Technical change (e.g. the invention
of the machine gun, the submarine and heavy artillery) meant that it was
difficult to achieve a quick result. There were also very heavy casualties
about 10 million military deaths and possibly another 10 million from the
diseases and hunger that accompanied the war. At the end of the war there
was also a worldwide influenza pandemic which probably killed 50 million
people.
The war had a number of economic effects. The scale and duration of the
war meant that governments had to learn how to shift resources from
peacetime to wartime use, how to manage the finance and pay for the war.
Governments had to take control of some parts of the economy. The first
part of the chapter looks at these challenges.
7.1.1 Inflation
In wartime an economy creates more purchasing power than goods.
Pause and think
What does the increase in purchasing power, but not in goods, lead to?
In economic terminology we say there is usually an inflationary gap.
This is because workers are paid to produce armaments which are not
consumed by the workers themselves. If the inflationary gap is not closed
it leads to a rise in prices. During the First World War, governments had
neither the will nor the knowledge to close this gap so most countries
experienced rapid inflation. Now try the next activity.
Activity
Why did many governments print money even though it created inflation? Why didnt
they increase taxes instead? See if you can evaluate the two options before you read on.
74
75
7.1.5 Borrowing
As we note above, borrowing was the most important way that
governments financed the war. Governments borrowed from abroad and at
home. Lets look at each source separately.
7.1.5.1 International borrowing
Governments needed money to pay for armaments and borrowed from
their allies. The French borrowed from the UK and the UK borrowed from
the USA. The allies were in the better position than the central powers
thanks to their access to the USA money market.
76
The USA was by far the biggest lender. Before the First World War the USA
always borrowed more than it lent abroad. The war changed the USA from
a net debtor to a net creditor for the first time. This had important postwar consequences, as we see later.
Pause and think
Think back to Chapter 6. Did the USA in the war have a balance of payments deficit or
surplus on current account?
The USA had a payments surplus because US exports expanded relative to
US imports. The surplus was recycled by US lending to the allies.
Pause and think
What were the implications for the international economy after the war, if and when the
debts to the USA were to be repaid?
To repay debts to the USA, the UK and France would need to earn export
surpluses after the war. Since it was difficult to do this (we come to that
later) this presented a critical problem after 1918.
7.1.5.2 Domestic borrowing
We know that governments found it impossible to finance their
huge wartime expenditures from taxation. Instead, all governments
borrowed from their own citizens.
Some of this borrowing was funded governments floated war bonds.
These bonds were bought by the population. Repayment was scheduled
for a long time after the war was over. Thus, the bonds were a way of
taking cash from the public and using it for war expenditure.
Many governments were left with the problem of paying the interest on
their large national debt after the war.
A great deal of government borrowing was non-funded. That is, it was
financed by literally printing money. Governments bought goods with
bills, which they printed. The suppliers who accepted the notes took
them to the bank. The banks issued banknotes in return for the bills (it
is called discounting). Obviously the money supply increased, leading
to rapid inflation in most countries.
77
7.3.3 Problems
The USA was not only the worlds largest industrial country but also
the worlds largest primary producer. As we have seen, US total factor
productivity (TFP) was higher than European TFP. Most US industrial and
primary products were now the cheapest in the world.
Pause and think
What did this mean in trade terms?
The USA needed few imports and was a large exporter (it had a trade
surplus). In addition, US economic policy favoured the domestic economy.
Exports only represented six per cent of GDP, the domestic economy the
other 94 per cent. This meant that the USA could have high tariffs with
little impact on the domestic economy from higher prices.
80
7.5 Inflation
As we have discovered, most governments used inflationary finance during
the war. This inflation carried over into the post-war period because of the
need for economic reconstruction and the war pensions that had to be paid
to widows and disabled soldiers. Political changes in many countries meant
that welfare had become a more pressing issue than it had been before the
war.
As we have seen, governments abandoned the gold standard during the war.
But after the war it was generally agreed that countries should go back to
the gold standard as soon as they were able. This was partly because they
found it difficult to visualise a world with floating exchange rates (which
was the alternative) and partly because they wanted the good housekeeping
seal of approval which we talked about in Chapter 4.
But in the short run it was impossible for most countries to fix their
exchange rates. As we saw above, many countries had serious balance
of payments problems after the war. And most countries, other than the
USA, had various rates of inflation. If they fixed their currency in gold,
they would lose all their reserves. It was impossible to go back to the gold
standard immediately.
81
Summary
The international economy worked poorly after 1918 because:
The war changed trade patterns and reduced the earnings of the
European exporters.
Political problems associated with the rise of nationalism reduced
European export earnings further.
Many countries incurred large international debts.
These international debts were difficult to repay because the USA had
a large trade surplus but was not recycling all of the surplus, as the UK
had done before 1914.
In turn, this affected exchange rates and made it difficult for the
reimposed gold standard to work properly.
The USA had become the dominant economy but was unwilling to act
as the leader of the international economy.
The USA was not willing to negotiate to solve these problems.
The inability to solve the trade problem, and hence the debt problem,
made it inevitable that there would be a major international crisis. This
occurred in 1931.
Questions
1. How far was the First World War a turning point in the international
economy?
2. Why did the international economy work less well after the First World
War than it had before?
3. Compare the position of the UK in the international economy before
the First World War with that of the USA after the First World War.
83
Notes
84
Objectives
To:
interpret the events of the 1930s in an international context
explain how the Depression had both national and international aspects
see what lessons were learned as a result of countries failures in the
1930s.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
describe the nature of the 1931 financial crisis
give reasons why the United States economy caused such problems for
the post-1918 international economy
explain why the world economic crisis was unavoidable, given the postwar settlement
explain why the world crisis was a turning point in the development of
the international economy.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.2158.
Eichengreen, B. Globalizing capital. A history of the international monetary
system. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780691139371] pp.7083.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] pp.193210 and pp.21114.
85
Further reading
Aldcroft, D.H. The European economy, 19142000. (London: Routledge, 2001)
[ISBN 0415250633 pbk] pp.6667.
Feinstein, C.H., P. Temin and G. Toniolo The world economy between the world
wars. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780195307559 hbk] pp.93104.
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.98201, pp.2046, pp.21528 and
pp.2324.
Kemp, T. The climax of capitalism. (London: Longman, 1990)
[ISBN 0582494230 pbk] pp.6473.
Introduction
In Chapter 7 we saw how the First World War permanently altered
the system of trade and payments that had fuelled the growth of the
international economy since 1870. In particular, the UK could no longer
play a key role in providing stability and aiding growth in the rest of the
world. The USA, which was now the dominant economy, was unwilling to
take up this role.
Between 1918 and 1926, a major breakdown in the financial system was
narrowly avoided. German reparations were rescheduled, the inflations
were contained and most countries had returned to gold by 1926. But the
system was weak and some exchange rates were unsustainable.
Moreover, nationalism was much more important than it had been in
1914. When the crisis spread round the world from Germany, the USA
and the primary producing countries in 1929, there was no international
mechanism to contain it. Recovery, when it came in the 1930s, was based
on national economies, not international trade. The Second World War
came at the end of this period. When peace returned, governments turned
to international institutions again, as they had before 1914.
In this course, there are many questions. The topic is complicated so do
not go through the chapter too quickly. Dont forget the readings. You
will also find that there are close links between Chapters 7, 8 and 9, so
remember to look backwards and forwards.
86
87
In the 1920s, this was reversed. Demand increased slowly while supply
increased very fast. As a result prices fell.
The ratio of the price of primary products to the price of industrial
products is called the terms of trade (see 1.5.20). We can say that the
terms of trade moved against primary producers after 1921.
Pause and think
Why did the terms of trade move against primary producers after 1921?
There were two main reasons why primary prices fell:
Technical changes, such as the tractor and artificial fertilisers, meant
that the supply of primary products was rising faster than demand. For
example, tractors allowed more land to be cultivated because, unlike
horses, they did not require land for their feed. Instead cattle could be
grazed or the land ploughed up. And tractors were faster than horses
and used less labour. Hence the introduction of tractors increased
agricultural output and acreage also increased.
The demand for food was not rising as fast as supply. In the jargon,
demand for food was income-inelastic people spent little of any
additional income on food. We use this concept again in Chapter 15.
Initially, the falls in primary product prices in the 1920s were not as great
as they might have been. This was because stockpiles (the amount that
wasnt sold) were rising (see the example of Brazilian coffee below).
But the banking crisis in Europe and the USA meant that the loans used
to finance stock holding were recalled. Hence stocks had to be sold
(liquidated) which led to a collapse in world prices.
Pause and think
Catastrophic falls in the prices of primary products occurred throughout the 1930s. The
income of the primary producing countries fell severely.
What do you think this did to capital flows to and from primary producers?
The primary producers were forced to restrict imports from the
industrial countries and often to default on their (very large) loans
from those countries.
This meant that exports from the industrial countries fell.
This resulted in reduced income in the industrial countries.
The loans were not government loans. Nor were they, in the main, bank
loans. They fell on individuals, which reduced individual income.
89
8.7.2.1 Tariffs
In 1930 the USA increased its tariffs substantially. (The famous Smoot
Hawley tariff.) This lead to almost immediate retaliation. When faced with
falling export earnings, countries raised their tariffs on imports. Naturally
this reduced another countrys exports and so spread the Depression.
The point was that the tariffs were often much higher than necessary;
governments overreacted.
Pause and think
In what circumstances would a country have gained from putting up tariffs on imports?
A single country could benefit as long as it had resources that could be
moved into import substitute areas. It must not be too reliant on imported
inputs, otherwise the tariff raises costs.
8.7.2.2 Deflation
The initial policy response of every government was to deflate the
economy in order to cut government spending. Balanced budgets were
considered to be a key objective, even in a depression. So when demand
fell because of a fall in exports, governments reduced demand, instead of
the correct response increasing it. This deepened the crisis.
Pause and think
Governments sometimes argued at the time that they had to behave like prudent
housekeepers, that is match their income (taxes) to their expenditure. We look at this in
Chapter 9. Can you see the weakness of the argument during the Depression?
Governments did not realise that cutting expenditure in an economy with
a circular flow of income also cuts income and therefore tax receipts. The
more they cut, the more income fell and the more their tax receipts fell. It
was fortunate that many governments failed to cut expenditure as much as
they planned.
This was the only acceptable policy supported by the economic theory of the
time. Theory began to change in the 1930s as Keynes influence, Takahashi
in Japan and that of some other economists, grew (see Chapter 9).
8.7.2.3 Interest rates were kept high
In the early years of the Depression interest rates were kept high to
persuade people to hold the currency (fear of capital flight). Since prices
were falling, this meant that real interest rates were rising. The cost of
borrowing rose and businesses, which had borrowed to invest, found that
their costs increased just as demand was falling. This led to the collapse of
businesses.
Activity
Imagine it is 1931, the Depression is serious and you are a government economic advisor.
1. You are in an industrial country. The government asks you two questions.
a. Can you think of any policies that we should follow?
b. Do you think our country alone can get itself out of the Depression or is
international cooperation essential? What do you say?
2. Imagine you are advisor to a primary producing country. Explain to them why the fall
in world prices in recent months has been much greater in food and raw materials
than in industrial products.
91
3. You are advisor in an industrial country. The Minister of Agriculture wants to introduce
tariffs on imported food so that local farmers can be protected. He asks you if it will
that have any negative effects on the countrys recovery from the Depression.
Answer these questions using the readings as well as this subject guide
for help. Once you have completed your answers, compare them to the
possible responses below:
1. a. You can recommend an expansionary monetary policy which will
lower interest rates. But this cannot be introduced with fixed
exchange rates. You can also recommend a deficit budget, unless
the country relies on exports. It would probably have worked in the
USA, but not as well in the UK.
b. If there is no international agreement (and in 1931 there isnt)
national policies without international cooperation will only work
if the country is largely isolated from the (depressed) international
economy. If this country expands demand alone, it will suffer a
balance of payments deficit followed by a currency crisis.
2. When the demand for industrial goods goes down, supply can be
reduced by closing factories and reducing employment. Therefore
supply contracts as well as demand and prices do not fall too much.
On the other hand, when demand for agricultural products goes down,
supply does not fall so quickly or easily land continues to be farmed.
This means prices must fall a lot further.
3. Tariffs will raise the cost of food and therefore lower the real wages
of workers. This will have a deflationary effect. If there are no tariffs
and food is freely imported, food prices will be lower, real wages will
be higher and workers will have more money to spend on industrial
goods.
92
93
Activity
1. Imagine it is 1931 and you are again an economic advisor in an industrial country.
Your central bank chairman has decided to stay on the gold standard. Explain to him
why you must therefore advise the government to pursue a deflationary policy, which
will reduce output.
2. Now the contrary position. This time your central bank chairman says the country is
leaving the gold standard. What, he asks you, does that mean for economic policy?
1. With a deflationary policy the country will have less output and
employment and there will be downward pressure on wages. This
economic pain is expected to reduce prices and costs. In turn, this
should increase exports and reduce imports, thus eliminating a balance
of payments deficit.
2. Here the government has more room to manoeuvre in monetary and
fiscal policies. An expansion of domestic demand is possible, increasing
output and employment. When this leads to a balance of payments
deficit, the exchange rate can be allowed to fall.
94
8.11 Aftermath
The world depression led to serious problems for ordinary people,
for example mass unemployment. In turn, this led to the election of
governments that were committed to intervene in the economy to improve
conditions. We look at this in Chapter 9.
Some countries were less depressed or were recovering faster. The UK
economy reached its 1929 output in 1934, Germany in 1936, the USA only
in 1939 and France not until after 1945. Those countries that recovered
fast, the UK and Germany, needed to insulate themselves from other, stilldepressed countries. Consequently they avoided links through trade and
exchange rates with countries that were still depressed.
Pause and think
What did the last point imply as regards the recovery of trade?
It meant that output (GDP) rose faster than international trade. Note this
was the opposite of the situation before 1914. In that period, as we saw,
trade increased faster than GDP.
8.12 Overview
To complete the chapter, here is a synopsis of the changes that occurred
in the international economy. We put them in the context of change
throughout the period we have dealt with so far in the course.
A synopsis of the development of the international economy, 18201945
c.182070: There was a great deal of variety, including changing
exchange rates. There were examples of both bilateral and multilateral
trade.
c.18701914: Fixed exchange rates. Multilateral settlements.
1914c.1919: Crisis 1 the First World War.
c.191931: Return to fixed exchange rates but serious problems.
c.1931: Crisis 2 serious banking crisis.
c.193139: Interventionist governments. End of fixed exchange rates.
Bilateral trade.
193945: Crisis 3 the Second World War.
Summary
The world economic crisis of the early 1930s was caused by the structural
problems of the international economy of the 1920s. These problems were
caused by the changes initiated by the First World War. Governments in
the 1920s failed to understand that the world economy was in serious
crisis, or if they did, they were unwilling to change their policies. Hence,
the world economic crisis was inevitable. In the later 1930s, countries did
recover from the crisis but recovery was based on domestic recovery, not
on international trade and finance.
95
Questions
1. Explain the main causes of the Depression in the international economy
in the early 1930s.
2. How far was the world economic crisis of the early 1930s inevitable?
3. How far did the existence of the gold standard make the world
economic crisis worse?
96
Chapter 9: Government intervention, recovery and the international economy in the 1930s
Objectives
To:
explain the course of the Depression in selected countries
show the links between national events and policies and the international
economy
evaluate the extent to which Keynesian economics could have improved
the situation and how far it was tried by governments.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activity, you should be able to:
outline why international trade in the 1930s failed to recover from the
Depression although world output did recover
explain why multilateral trade ceased in the 1930s and trade became
bilateral
discuss why government intervention in national economies in the 1930s
reduced the level of international trade in the short run.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of modern
Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.21924.
Eichengreen, B. Globalizing capital. A history of the international monetary system.
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780691139371] pp.8390.
Kemp, T. The climax of capitalism. (London: Longman, 1990)
[ISBN 0582494230 pbk] pp.759 and pp.8992.
97
Further reading
Aldcroft, D.H. The European economy, 19142000. (London: Routledge, 2001)
[ISBN 0415250633 pbk] pp.8093.
Feinstein, C.H., P. Temin and G. Toniolo The world economy between the world
wars. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780195307559 hbk] pp.13559.
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.2014 and 22832.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] pp.197210.
Introduction
In Chapter 7 we looked at how the countries affected by the First World
War recovered, but how the recovery was beset with problems. In Chapter
8 we continued the historical analysis and examined the breakdown of the
financial system and the onset of the Depression. In this chapter we look at
the 1930s from the different perspectives of the USA, the UK and Germany.
Chapter 9: Government intervention, recovery and the international economy in the 1930s
Evidence for the monetarist explanation can be found in the three bank
crises between 1929 and 1933. This was largely the policy of the Federal
Reserve Bank (the FED) in 1931. The FED allowed real interest rates to
rise; the monetarists say they should have fallen.
Keynesian explanations, named after the UK economist John Maynard
Keynes, depend on the strength of demand; consumer incomes, investment
etc.
According to this view, the reason for the Depression was that there
was a fall in investment, which was caused by an autonomous fall in
consumption. An implication of the Keynesian view is that there is no
automatic reason for demand to rise. For example, falling prices and
falling interest rates would not necessarily increase investment, as the
monetarists believe. Remember, however, that both explanations could be
true, they are not substitutes for each other.
9.1.3 How far was the New Deal based on new economic theory?
J.M. Keynes changed the way that governments looked at intervention.
Before Keynes people believed that markets always cleared and that
the economy was in equilibrium at full employment. For example, they
believed that unemployment was caused because wages were too high
for everyone to be employed. If wages fell, unemployment would fall.
According to this view government intervention would make the market
work badly. Hence intervention was difficult to justify.
Keynes showed that the economy could be in equilibrium at less than full
employment.
Pause and think
What does Keynes theory imply for adherents of free-market economics?
This meant that employment could never recover through the market
mechanism (see above). This is a prima facie argument that government
intervention was necessary for recovery from the Depression. The correct
policy in a depression was for the government to increase expenditure
(e.g. on unemployment benefits or public works) so that demand
increased.
The whole idea of economic management came from these insights.
Keynesian ideas were very important in many countries after the Second
World War.
99
There was one major problem with the New Deal of 1933. There was no
worked out policy of fiscal deficits. This was not surprising since Keynes
himself did not fully work out this part of his economic model until 1936!
The US government did increase expenditure substantially, but most of it
was paid for by increases in taxation. The deficits were very modest. In the
main, the New Deal was not an early example of economic management.
9.1.5 How successful was the New Deal in getting the USA out
of the Depression?
In the main, the New Deal was not successful. It did not lead to rapid
recovery. Income per capita was no higher in 1939 than in 1929. Recovery
and growth in the US economy came later through rearmament.
Pause and think
We have mentioned one reason why the impact of the New Deal on the Depression was
disappointing the US Federal Government put up taxes at the same time as it put up
expenditure. This lessened the stimulus to aggregate demand. Another reason was that
the government (and its economic advisors) misunderstood the relationship between
prices output.
Can you think how prices and output were related?
The New Deal government in the USA believed that the fall in prices
caused the fall in output. Hence their policy was to increase output by
increasing prices. In fact, it was the other way round; the fall in prices was
caused by the fall in output. Therefore a fall in prices would not increase
output (see Figure 9.1).
They thought:
prices caused output
so, prices would lead to output
But, in reality:
output caused prices
so, prices would not lead to output
Figure 9.1. New Deal economic policy
Chapter 9: Government intervention, recovery and the international economy in the 1930s
Chapter 9: Government intervention, recovery and the international economy in the 1930s
exchange was used up, the government used strict exchange control to
avoid the increase in demand leading to a balance of payments crisis.
The German government also started a massive work creation scheme,
designed to eradicate unemployment. By 1936 rearmament had started in
earnest. Government deficits paid for armaments. Since Germany, by then,
had full employment, inflation was a danger. This was suppressed through
restrictions on consumption and trade.
Pause and think
How far did German policies allow the economy to recover from the Depression?
German GNP in 1939 was 50 per cent higher than in 1929. Recovery in
statistical terms had occurred. But the main products of the economy were
armaments and capital goods. Guns before butter, as it was put at the
time. Consumption was less than in 1929. This leads to the question of
whether the German recovery could be considered to be economic growth.
We continue the discussion of guns before butter in Chapter 10 where we
look at wartime economies.
Summary
The economic depression of the 1930s led to major changes in the role of
government in the economy, changes which still affect economies today.
The effect of national recovery policies in the 1930s was to reduce the
importance of trade and to change the international economy, from which
it only recovered after the Second World War.
Questions
1. Explain why international trade grew slowly in the 1930s.
2. How far was it necessary for countries to turn away from international
trade in the 1930s in order to recover from the Depression?
3. How successful was government intervention to the recovery of
economies from the Depression of the early 1930s? You may confine
your answer to one country if you wish.
103
Notes
104
Objectives
To show:
explain the market does not work in wartime
how the market in wartime is always controlled by government policy
that a government may have different objectives in wartime than in
peacetime
the importance of output (i.e. GDP) in war as well as in peace
the problems associated with the transition from a wartime to a
peacetime economy.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activity, you should be able to:
explain why planning was necessary to maximise output in wartime
explain why strategic objectives may affect the efficiency of the
economy in wartime
suggest possible reasons why some countries were able to devote
proportionally more resources to the war effort than others
discuss what the main constraints on output in a war economy can be.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.13455.
Further reading
Aldcroft, D.H. The European economy, 19142000. (London: Routledge, 2001)
[ISBN 0415250633 pbk] pp.97114.
Kemp, T. The climax of capitalism. (London: Longman, 1990)
[ISBN 0582494230 pbk] pp.93103 and pp.1068.
105
Introduction
In this chapter we examine the relative scarcity of capital and labour
in wartime. We discuss the successes and failures of war economies,
particularly governments management of war economies.
Next, we show the important choices that governments had to make
and how these were related to the military strategy that the country was
pursuing.
We examine how much trade is possible and desirable in wartime.
Examples are taken from the experience of the USA, the UK, Germany and
the USSR, during the Second World War.
106
Summing up
In wartime a government intervenes in the economy because if it did not:
Non-essential goods would continue to be manufactured, wasting
scarce resources.
All prices would rise, but not equally.
In other words, in wartime the price system will not allocate resources
efficiently.
Pause and think
If the government is going to purchase tanks and guns from business, what prices does it
pay? Think about this before reading on.
We know that looking for a market price will not help, because the market
will not work in wartime. A government could offer to purchase, say
aircraft, from the private sector. This would presumably mean that the
government would have to offer a higher price than previously. But it has
no way of knowing if that is an efficient price.
The aircraft manufacturer may be paying too much or too little for his
inputs. The government has, in effect, to decide how many resources,
labour and capital investment to allocate to aircraft production.
Pause and think
One of the features of a war economy is that labour is usually the scarcest factor relative
to others. Why is this so? Decide your answer before reading on.
Capital was not the scarcest factor in the Second World War as it
usually is in peacetime. This was because large economies of scale
were possible for most wartime goods. Economies of scale mean that
as output rises the cost per unit of output falls. For example, if there
was a large amount of underused capital, as on a railway, more trains
could be run without much more investment in equipment. Moreover,
machine tools and other capital goods could themselves be mass
produced.
The scarcest resource must have been labour. The industrial labour
force could not easily be increased, particularly when, as in the 1939
45 period, the armed forces took a large proportion of the pre-war
labour force (20 per cent in the UK). Once full employment had been
achieved, the only source of additional labour in most countries was
married women. There was also a major redeployment of women from
consumer industry and services to war factories in most countries.
It was possible, therefore, in the short run, to have both guns and butter
but only in the short run. For example, although Hitler was elected in
Germany in 1933, the Nazi economy did not introduce maximum controls
until 1937. This was when the economy reached full employment.
The position of the United States was quite different. The American
economy was still very depressed in 1939. Output per person was no
higher in 1939 than in 1929. It was, therefore, initially very easy to
increase output. Rearmament started after the fall of France in 1940 and
the USA fully entered the war in late 1941.
In other words, initially, supply constraints were less in the USA than in
other countries.
Now consider another aspect of the wartime economy.
Pause and think
We have mentioned technology and mass production. What do you think were the
main problems of mass-producing weapons? Only read on when you have decided your
answer.
In wartime, output is maximised with long runs of identical products. This
is particularly true of armaments. In the Second World War, the benefits of
mass production were enormous.
There was a problem, however. If maximum economies were to be
obtained, a decision would have to be taken about which armaments to
produce. It took a long time to bring a weapon, such as a fighter aircraft,
from design to mass production several years in fact.
The main constraint was in production engineering. Just as it took Ford
four years completely to set up the Model T production line, it took a long
time to set up a weapon-production line.
The problem was that if the decision to mass produce, say an aircraft,
was made too early, it would be obsolete by the time large numbers
were available. On the other hand, if the government waited until the
most advanced technology was developed, the aircraft might not reach
production until it was too late. All countries made mistakes in weapons
policy, but the largest economies, especially the USA, could afford to make
more mistakes than others.
Germany, for example, continued to produce the Messerschmitt 109 fighter
plane up to the end of the war in 1945. Even though the Focke-Wulf 190,
which came into service in 1941 was a far superior aircraft, twice as many
Messerschmitts were built. This was because planning mistakes led to
engineering problems and a shortage of skilled labour.
108
UK
55%
USA
40%
Germany
40%
USSR
40%
1940
15
10
1941
20
11
1942
24
14
1943
26
25
1944
27
40
111
The war led to major changes in the international economy and the
political settlement.
Post-war reconstruction presented new problems.
The USA ended the war as the dominant economy in the world.
Pause and think
What have you already learnt about the five aspects above?
Answer this before reading on.
10.6.3 Reconstruction
The war caused massive destruction in Europe and the Far East. In
particular, capital equipment had to be replaced. Japan and Germany
had been heavily bombed for example, and even countries less heavily
bombed, like the UK, ended the war with worn out factories and transport
systems.
The only undamaged economy of any size was the USA. The USA made 50
per cent of world manufactures in 1945. Clearly the majority of the capital
needed for reconstruction could only come from the USA. However, the
damaged economies did not have the capacity to export to pay for imports
from the USA.
There were two possible solutions:
War-damaged economies could recover by devoting the few resources
they had to investment. This would mean that consumption would
have to remain low. In other words, it would take many years of
privation before countries could recover from the war.
112
The only alternative was that these countries were given loans to help
recovery. The loans would have to come from the USA.
We explore these problem and the decisions taken in 1944 and after in
Chapter 11.
Summary
The Second World War required that governments intervene in the
economy to an unprecedented extent. Depending on circumstances, some
economies were able to devote proportionally more resources to the war
effort than others.
After the war, there was a serious reconstruction problem and only
international loans from the USA could save governments from continuing
to impose severe restrictions on consumption.
Questions
1. How does a wartime economy differ from a peacetime economy? You
may restrict your answer to any one country during the Second World
War if you wish.
2. Account for the successes of economic management during the Second
World War in any country that you choose.
113
Notes
114
Objectives
To:
explain that international institutions are contingent on the
circumstances of the time
make clear why the post-war international monetary arrangements
could not be implemented at the time
show why the fixed rate regime (Bretton Woods system) collapsed and
was replaced by flexible exchange rates
discuss how the move to flexible exchange rates affected national
economies
explain the methods used to contain major economic crises, such as the
oil crises of 1973 and 1979.
The effect of the recent crisis (from 2007) will be discussed in Chapter 17.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
discuss whether it was the Bretton Woods rules or something else that
made the international economy work so much better after 1945 than
before 1939
explain the importance of political considerations in the development
of international economic structures
explain how a country (and its currency) may remain dominant in the
international economy without being economically the most efficient
explain how an important shock to the international economy, such as
an oil crisis, can be contained.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.3617.
Eichengreen, B. Globalizing capital. A history of the international monetary
system. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008) second edition
[ISBN 9780691139371] pp.12633, pp.15764, pp.21925 and pp.22832.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] pp.23746 and pp.26978.
115
Further reading
Aldcroft, D.H. The European economy, 19142000. (London: Routledge, 2001)
[ISBN 0415250633 pbk] pp.11421, 2048.
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic relations
since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second edition
[ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.23957, pp.30511 and pp.3358.
Introduction
In this chapter we investigate international monetary arrangements and
the changes that occurred before and after 1973. We discuss the reasons
why the Bretton Woods agreements took the shape that they did. Then we
explain why the Bretton Woods agreements were unsuitable for the postwar recovery and why different monetary arrangements had to be made
which were not envisaged at the end of the war. We also look at the effects
of Marshall Aid on the recovery of Europe.
Next we explain why the dollar declined in the 1960s and why this led to
the end of fixed exchange rates and the introduction of floating currencies.
Finally, we look at the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 and how the effects of
the crises were controlled.
116
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (the GATT), whose role
was to ensure that barriers to trade were as low as possible, so that the
amount of international trade was as great as possible.
The IMF was a fund and the amount a country could draw on was related to
the amount it had put in. With the exception of the USA, this was not much.
The Europeans wanted an institution that would allow them to draw funds
from the IMF without being limited by the original contributions. In other
words, they wanted to obtain overdraft facilities, to use the British term
for borrowing from banks.
The problem for the European countries, for example, was that if they
could not obtain credit, it would be necessary to deflate their economies.
Both imports and consumption would have to be seriously limited. This
was politically very difficult, particularly in countries such as the UK,
which had won the war and had a new government which was committed
to social expenditure programmes.
Activity
Imagine that you are the finance minister of a war-damaged west European country
between 1945 and 1950 such as Belgium. Explain why your country would have to
deflate unless it could obtain foreign credit.
In your answer, remember the following:
Your country can produce few saleable exports.
Imports are required to rebuild the economy and meet consumer demand.
Without credit, investment can only be at the expense of other expenditure.
Most countries were also unwilling to accept that there would be no trade
discrimination in the post-war international economy. The reasons were
similar to the reasons that they wanted access to international loans.
Pause and think
Why did countries want trade discrimination?
Make sure you can follow the logic of the argument below.
The USA was the most powerful economy, with a dominant trade
position.
This meant that a so-called dollar gap was inevitable.
People would always want dollars in order to buy US goods so there
would be a shortage of dollars.
It would be necessary to buy as much as possible from non-dollar
sources. So, those holding dollars could not use them without
permission from the central bank.
This meant that it would be necessary to discriminate against the
dollar. Technically, under IMF rules, to declare the dollar a scarce
currency. This would allow the government to take dollars owned by
exporters, and use them only for essential imports. So the purpose of
the trade was to obtain dollars.
Trade with other (European) countries would be on a barter basis, that
is it would be bilateral. (The value of exported goods would equal the
value of the imported goods.)
These two additional objectives, to gain access to foreign loans from a
revised version of the IMF and to discriminate against dollar exports, were
very sensible. Without them, recovery from the war for most countries
would have been difficult and slow. But the two extra objectives were not
included in the Bretton Woods agreements, which stuck to fixed exchange
rates, a limited fund, convertibility and no discrimination.
118
119
121
Marshall Aid finished in 1952, but the flow of American funds to other
countries continued. For example the Cold War between the West and
the Soviet Union meant that the USA kept military forces overseas and
spent abroad large sums on the military. In turn this meant that dollars
were spent in foreign countries. The key event was the Korean War which
both increased American spending overseas and American imports and
effectively ended the dollar shortage.
There was also an increase in direct investment by Americans overseas.
The reason was that the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
had not worked. Free trade had not come about and all the major
economies still had tariffs. This meant, for example, that large American
corporations were unable to export cars to Europe. Hence they used
factories in European countries and manufactured the cars within the tariff
barriers that is in Europe.
Pause and think
Make sure that you understand that American loans were equivalent to an increase in
American imports. If you find the concept difficult, think about who buys the goods and
services and who supplies them.
Why would, say, a French company exchange francs for dollars in 1948?
Where did those dollars come from?
The Cold War and American overseas investment both helped to maintain
the flow of dollars to other countries. As a result, European countries
quickly recovered and the dollar gap closed in the 1950s. This was quite
different to the situation in the 1920s (see Chapter 7).
the fixed exchange rate for the dollar that underpinned Bretton
Woods. The same applies to the other option, a rise in the exchange
rates of the yen and the mark.
c. Other countries increase their dollar reserves by five.
d. People and companies in other countries build up dollar holdings by
five.
e. The USA introduces import controls to reduce imports by five.
f. The USA introduces capital controls to reduce the capital outflow by
five.
g. The USA deflates the economy and as a result net exports increase
by five.
4. The excess of dollars rises to five plus eight equals thirteen.
The possibility that the USA might have a deficit had not been anticipated
in the post-war settlement. But American foreign policy made it likely that a
deficit would eventually appear.
The increase in direct investment overseas by American companies made
a deficit even more likely. The appearance of the American capital deficit
meant that bonds, denominated in dollars were taken up by the overseas
central banks. This increased the central bank reserves. In theory the central
banks could have used the increase to finance more spending. But they
would not do this, largely because of a fear of inflation. This meant that by
holding US bonds the European central banks were in effect lending money
to the Americans. This was bound to weaken the dollar in the long run (see
below).
Fixed exchange rates had been established by the early 1950s. But this was
a bit of an illusion. Convertibility was the most difficult aspect of the postwar settlement to establish. Many European currencies were not 100 per
cent convertible until the 1960s, for example. And countries still had some
controls on currency used for capital movements (but not on currency used
for trade).
When the controls were lifted, it was not possible to avoid devaluations. This
was contrary to the original Bretton Woods agreements, under which fixed
exchange rates were taken for granted and IMF loans would only be made to
cover temporary balance of payments deficits.
But if a countrys export performance was weak it might be necessary to
devalue. Not devaluing would be more damaging than doing so.
Pause and think
Consider an economy with a fixed exchange rate that is too high. This means that the
economy cannot operate at full employment, for example. What other effects would it have?
Eventually devaluations would have to be allowed, as with the British pound
in 1967, and the French franc several times. The German mark had to be
revalued.
Fixed exchange rates remained an objective but it was going to be more
difficult to achieve them.
Germany and Japan were increasing faster than American exports. Finally,
the Vietnam war led to inflation in the USA.
Hence Germany and Japan had trade surpluses and the USA, a trade
deficit. The USA was losing gold reserves to cover the deficit. (Remember
that the US dollar was convertible into gold, unlike other currencies.)
Faced with the weakness of the dollar and the consequent gold losses, the
American government could follow one of several options:
Do nothing. This would mean that the USA would continue to lose
gold. The problem was that although US gold stocks were very large
they would eventually run out, which would destroy the convertibility
of the dollar.
Deflate the economy. This would reduce income in the USA and,
hence, reduce US imports. The problem, of course, was whether
deflation was politically acceptable that is if the electorate would
allow the government to reduce the standard of living.
Control capital flows which they did. The problem with this
solution to the deficit was that the IMF system was designed to ensure
convertibility. By the 1960s, countries were not allowed to have
exchange controls on their current accounts. Moreover, the GATT rules
did not allow countries to increase tariffs. Obviously, the USA, which
had, in effect, forced other countries to follow these rules, was hardly
in a position to break them.
Devalue the dollar. This was also impossible under the IMF system
which was designed to ensure fixed exchange rates. The dollar was the
key currency, against which all the other exchange rates were set. The
dollar could not be devalued without changing the whole system. If a
devaluation of the dollar was allowed, it would be an admission that
the post-war international economic system had failed.
Pause and think
If the USA was boxed in and unable to devalue the dollar, what alternatives can you think
of which would have restored stability to the international economy?
The final way out was, rather than devaluing the dollar, to persuade the
surplus countries to revalue. But this was easier said than done since
it would mean that the exports of the surplus countries, such as Germany
and Japan would fall.
In other words it was easier for the surplus countries to adjust their
economies if there was an exchange rate problem. However the fact that
exchange rates were fixed meant that it was the deficit countries that had
to adjust and not the surplus countries. This was because, under fixed
exchange rates, a deficit country that did not adjust would eventually run
out of reserves.
This problem had been anticipated, but when the USA had designed the
system in 1944, it was not anticipated that the USA would itself be a
deficit country one day.
The IMF system was making it difficult for the USA to solve the weakness
of the dollar.
124
$
OPEC
Euro $ (42%)
Deficit countries
IMF (10%)
$
Figure 11.1
The increase in the price of oil meant large flows of dollars into the OPEC
countries because oil was priced in dollars. (OPEC is the Organisation of
125
Petroleum Exporting Countries). But the OPEC countries were not able
to absorb all the dollars that they were earning. Hence they lent them to
other countries or international institutions.
About 35 per cent of OPEC earnings went into assets in the UK and USA
(property, shares and bonds), about 42 per cent went to the Eurodollar
market (which was located in London) and about 10 per cent went into
IMF funds. In this way the dollars that had been paid to OPEC were
recycled.
Pause and think
What was the effect on the world distribution of income? Compare the effects on:
an OPEC member country
a developing country exporting agricultural products and importing oil.
11.2.7.2 The switching problem
The price of imports of oil had risen. The switching problem was basically
the way the extra cost of oil imports was absorbed, or if it was not
absorbed, how the cost was switched. In the importing countries the extra
cost was paid (absorbed) through a large increase in their debt.
Developed countries such as Germany and Japan paid for the oil in dollars
then borrowed the dollars back from the OPEC countries. This increased
their debts but these debts were eventually repaid without it being
necessary to significantly reduce living standards in those countries.
The less developed countries also had to borrow to finance oil imports.
But these countries could not increase exports to repay the loans, as
the developed countries had been able to do. Hence, debt continued to
increase. By 1982 the debt had reached crisis proportions. It was possible
that some less developed countries would default on their debts, which
would threaten the stability of some of the commercial banks which had
lent to them.
Eventually, the creditors the World Bank, and the commercial banks
imposed large deflationary packages on these less developed countries
in the 1980s. These were called Structural Adjustment Packages and
included rescheduling loan repayments. The aim was to reduce imports
and make it easier for them to repay their debts. However, imports were
reduced by depressing the already low living standards in these countries.
11.2.7.3 Stagflation
The oil crisis was partly responsible for a major change in the internal
economies of developed countries. The increase in the oil price fed
through into the price of most products, causing inflation. At the same
time rising energy costs led to reduced output and more unemployment.
This considerably worsened a problem which had first appeared in the
1960s the coexistence of both unemployment and inflation, stagflation,
as this phenomenon was called. This was made more serious by incorrect
policy responses to the oil crisis. These issues are dealt with in Chapter 13.
126
After 1973, currencies were floated. As we have already seen it had been
thought that a strong international economy depended on the certainty
of fixed exchange rates. When currencies floated in the later 1970s,
there were large variations in their value. This was called the volatility
problem. It had been thought that the volatility of exchange rates when
currencies floated would lead to chaos, but this did not occur.
127
Summary
In 1944, attempts were made to create a set of institutions to ensure that
the problems of the 1930s would not reccur in the post-war international
economy. These institutions did not work well and had to be modified
in the light of circumstances, particularly the problems of reconstruction
from the effects of the Second World War in Europe.
But the international economy did recover and in the 1950s and 1960s
there was unprecedented economic growth, as we will see in Chapter 12.
Then a new and unforseen problem appeared.
This was the relative weakness of the American economy and of the dollar.
Changes in the structure of the international economy were inevitable as a
result and particularly after the oil crisis of 1973. By then, fixed exchange
rates had gone and the international economy entered a new phase.
Questions
1. How far were the Bretton Woods agreements the reason for the
recovery of the international economy after the Second World War?
2. What were the effects of the change from a dollar shortage to a dollar
glut on the international economy in the second half of the twentieth
century?
3. What was the effect of the 1973 oil crisis on the less developed
countries?
128
Objectives
To:
explain why rapid growth occurred in the 1950s and 1960s
explain why growth slowed down in the 1970s
outline what this growth and slowdown meant for the international
economy.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activity, you should be able to:
explain why growth rates in western Europe after the Second World
War were relatively high
discuss the importance of labour market behaviour in growth rates
give reasons why technology favoured the shift to very large integrated
markets in the late twentieth century
show how changes in the relative growth rates may be explained by the
idea of convergence.
Essential reading
Broadberry, B.N. and K. ORourke (eds) The Cambridge economic history of
modern Europe. Volume 2: 1870 to the present. (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2010) [ISBN 9780521708395] pp.33449.
Further reading
Aldcroft, D.H. The European economy, 19142000. (London: Routledge, 2001)
[ISBN 0415250633 pbk] pp.12862, pp.16872 and pp.1806.
Blackford, M.G. The rise of modern business in Great Britain, the United States
and Japan. (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North California Press, 1988)
[ISBN 0807842028 pbk] pp.1417.
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.25862 and pp.28991.
129
Introduction
We start with a discussion of the changes in the share of American,
Japanese and western European manufactures in the international
economy since the Second World War. We then concentrate on explaining
two features of the growth of the western European economies in the
period:
why post-war growth in western Europe was exceptionally fast
compared with all other periods
why growth rates fell in the 1970s.
Remember an important lesson from Chapter 11. It wasnt the rules of the
Bretton Woods agreements that led to a flourishing international economy.
Rather, success came for other reasons. In economic history we must be
careful to find the real causes of events.
USA
Germany
France
Italy
Japan
195060
2.2
1.6
6.5
3.5
5.3
7.0
196070
2.2
2.6
3.3
5.0
4.7
10.0
197080
1.8
1.7
2.6
3.0
3.3
3.6
198090
2.4
1.8
2.3
2.1
2.3
4.0
19902000
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.2
200008
1.9
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.3
0.8
Activity
Look back at Chapters 2 and 3.
What were typical growth rates for those countries, which had achieved modern
economic growth in the nineteenth century?
How do the nineteenth-century rates compare with those shown in Table 12.1?
What other economic information would you want before assessing how far living
standards were raised in the countries shown in Table 12.1?
After 1950 per capita growth rates were high. The growth rates are much
higher than any previous period, so much so in fact that the 1950s and
1960s have been called a golden age.
Table 12.1 also shows that the growth rates of the continental European
countries were faster in the 1950s and 1960s than in the 1970s and
1980s. The reasons for the high growth rates must also have been truly
exceptional and would not be repeated.
130
West Germany
25
9
Italy
41
19
France
29
14
UK
6
3
Table 12.2 Percentage of the labour force in agriculture, 1950 and 1970
131
133
A major reason why there was full employment was that the reduction
in trade barriers within the EEC expanded demand which, in turn, led
to more output. This was because trade creation was more important
than trade diversion. Think about the effect of a common market with
a common external tariff. One effect would be to divert imports which
had previously come from a lower cost producer outside the common
market to a higher cost producer within it. This would reduce income. The
other effect is that the larger common market increases demand within
it so that trade specialisation increases. This would increase income. In
the 1958 common market, trade creation was more important than trade
diversion, so incomes rose.
USA
Germany
France
Italy
Japan
China
all seven
countries
1960
13
18
15
62
1970
15
16
62
1980
10
55
1990
11
14
14
57
1997
13
11
10
50
2010
11
12
12
54
136
137
138
The need for young workers to receive virtually the same conditions
as adults had the effect of protecting adult jobs since it prevented
adult wages from being undercut. But, at the same time, it made it less
attractive to employ young workers. Their wages were high relative to
their productivity. Hence youth unemployment increased.
The increase in job security in European countries for the existing
full-time adult workers and young workers led to the growth of
secondary labour markets. Fewer full-time workers and young
workers were recruited. Far more part-time workers, who were
mainly women and immigrants, were recruited. Such workers were
rarely unionised, were paid lower wages and fewer benefits than the
established workers. This phenomenon occurred in every European
country in the 1960s but particularly in the UK.
Pause and think
What are the arguments in favour of and against paying young workers the going wage
for adults?
12.9 Convergence
In 1957 there were considerable differences in per capita income between
the original six countries of the EEC, notably between Italy and Germany.
By the 1990s these differences were quite small.
Pause and think
What was the mechanism for this convergence?
Labour had moved from low to high-income countries, for instance
from Italy to Germany.
Investment was moving to countries where labour was cheaper, for
instance from Germany to Britain.
As a result, real income differences between the EU countries (with the
exception of Spain, Portugal and Greece, which only joined the EU in
the 1980s) are within probably plus or minus 10 per cent of the average
income. A spectacular example was Ireland. Ireland was relatively poor
but the country had growth rates of five to 10 per cent per annum in the
1980s. By 2000 Irish income per head exceeded the EU average.
Pause and think
Convergence has had an important political consequence. Can you think what it is?
Opposition to further European integration has decreased. Also the
attractiveness of joining the EU has become obvious to other countries.
The process of enlargement of the EU into central and eastern Europe has
been marked by local enthusiasm, particularly from business and political
leaders.
Note that the UK growth rate, which had been relatively low in the 1970s,
changed in the 1980s to the European average (or even slightly above).
This may be related to the Thatcher experiment. In the 1980s, the power
of the trade unions was weakened, taxes on high incomes reduced and an
enterprise culture fostered. This included lower personal taxes and fewer
constraints on accumulating personal wealth.
139
We must remember, however, that two factors were behind the better
economic performance of the UK:
changes in government policy
convergence within the more integrated west European economy.
Summary
Economic growth in western Europe in the 1950s and 1960s was
unprecedented. The growth was caused by catch up and the improvement
in the performance of the international economy. In turn, this led to
further integration of the economies and to further growth. In the 1970s
growth slowed, partly due to changes in the labour market. But the
convergence of the European economies continued.
Questions
1. Why were growth rates in western European economies relatively high
in the 1950s and 1960s?
2. Why did growth rates in the western European economies fall in the
1970s?
3. Explain the economic benefits of the creation of a common market in
western Europe. Were the expected benefits achieved?
140
Objectives
To:
explain why economic management in the USA became more difficult
in the 1960s
explain supply-side economics and show the reasons why it did not
work as expected
argue that the poor performance of the dominant world economy leads
to problems for other countries.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
list and explain the objectives of economic policy
give reasons why economic management became more difficult in the
1970s
analyse why supply-side economics in the USA did not work
list and explain the international implications of the poor performance
of the largest economy.
Essential reading
Kemp, T. The climax of capitalism. (London: Longman, 1990) [ISBN
0582494230 pbk] pp.12734, pp.1437, pp.17788 and pp.20411.
Introduction
We have seen how the US economy dominated the post-war international
economy during the 1940s and 1950s. This dominance started to change
in the 1960s.
13.1.2 Unemployment
A new problem in the 1960s was the rise in unemployment to what in
the USA was considered to be a high level (6 per cent). At this time,
unemployment was considered to be a structural problem and nothing to
do with the overall demand for labour in the economy.
For example surveys showed that unemployment rates among young
black men and women were several times as high as the national average.
Black men and women were less well educated than whites. Hence,
unemployment policy was aimed at increasing their skill levels. This
meant that unemployment policicy was aimed at individuals, as opposed
to demand management.
13.1.3 Growth
A second problem was that since the 1940s, the growth rate of the
American economy had been very low. The 1960s decade had higher
growth but it was against a trend of falling growth rates and the 1960s
were seen as an aberration. In other words, the US economy seemed to
have peaked in the 1940s.
Moreover, budget deficits were increasing and inflation was increasing in
the USA. In other words, economic management did not seem to
be working. However, the failure of economic management was passed
off, not as a problem of government policy, but as a problem of industry.
Firms were individually blamed by the US government for increasing their
prices.
Pause and think
Why was this view unfair?
13.1.4 Stagflation
We noted briefly in Chapter 11 that the problems of the 1960s were
followed by a new combination of problems in the 1970s and 1980s.
Prices were rising.
Output was falling.
Unemployment was rising.
This was a new combination of problems and the economic models
available could not explain it.
In the standard Keynesian model, which was developed in the 1930s
and was in the toolbox of all government economists in the 1960s,
unemployment and inflation were substitutes. This meant that, in theory,
142
% INFLATION
Y
Year 2
Year 1
% UNEMPLOYMENT
143
Figure 13.1 is a schematic way of showing the reasons why the trade off
between unemployment and inflation had gone and, hence, the dilemma
faced by government policy under stagflation:
In the first year, the economy has Y per cent inflation and X per cent
unemployment.
In the second year, the workers expect that prices will continue to rise
by Y per cent.
Workers are able to demand wages to compensate them for the
expected inflation (see below).
Any government policy to reduce inflation will lead not to X per cent
unemployment but to even more unemployment (Z per cent).
D1
O2 O1
144
The oil crisis was a supply problem. This is shown in Figure 13.2
where the supply curve moves from S1 to S2 while the demand curve D1
remains fixed. The supply curve was also affected by more than the oil
price (e.g. COLAs).
The American government was faced with two choices. The correct
policy would have been to reduce expenditure and demand. This would
have reduced inflation, but the problem was that it would have further
increased unemployment. This is shown in Figure 13.3 Option A. If the
supply curve had moved from S1 to S2, the most effective policy would
have been for the American government to reduce demand that is to
move D1 to D2.
The American government chose to try and reduce inflation without
reducing demand. But they failed to control inflation. This meant that
the high price of fuel was causing shortages, which was reducing output.
To deal with this the government then increased demand from D1 to D2.
The effect of this was to cause much more inflation, but not much more
output. This is shown in Figure 13.3 Option B.
The key point to understand is this: stagflation meant that conventional
economic management would not work.
Option B
Option A
S2
S2
S1
S1
P2
P2
P1
P1
D1
D2
D1
D2
O2
O1
O1 O2
The second oil crisis of 1979 (which was caused by the IranIraq War)
was much better handled by governments because most understood the
stagflation problem. Monetary policy was tightened (so real interest rates
rose) and most governments were careful not to allow expenditure to rise.
Hence there was little inflation, which in turn led to low wage demands.
The failure of government policy in the 1970s, in this and similar
episodes, led to the discussion of different cures for stagflation, including
monetarism. Milton Friedman (a Professor at the University of Chicago)
argued that:
Governments must take a long-run view.
Government intervention made the economy unstable. There would
only be stability if there was no government intervention.
An important reason was that people always anticipate government
policy. (As in the case of the COLAs which changed peoples
expectations about future inflation.)
145
146
savings increase
productivity rises
investment increases
output rises
output rises
prices fall*
unemployment falls*
147
Activity
Consider some of the assumptions of Reaganomics. For example:
Would a super-rich person work harder if marginal tax rates fell?
Do successful rich people, like business managers, only work for money?
Is it possible for such people to work harder than they do?
Predictions
Outcomes
Productivity increases
Productivity falls
Savings increase
Savings fall
Investment increases
Investment falls
Prices fall
Unemployment falls
If you work through Figure 13.5 you can see that the objectives were
achieved, but not because of supply-side economics.
There were also some undesirable side effects:
The balance of payments deficit rose.
The budget deficit rose (because taxes fell).
The growth rate was low (because savings and investment were low).
And, (as Reaganomics intended) there was more income inequality.
Poverty increased. Welfare declined.
148
Summary
In the 1950s and 1960s it was believed that government intervention in
the economy could guarantee full employment and economic growth.
This was not the case in the 1970s, which lead to the implementation of
different economic policies monetarism and Reaganomics.
Economic performance improved in the 1980s, but not necessarily because
economic policies were the correct ones.
149
Questions
1. Why did Keynesian demand management become difficult in many
countries in the 1970s?
2. For what reasons were supply-side policies introduced in the USA in the
1980s? Were the policies successful?
3. How did the poor performance of the American economy after the
1960s affect the international economy?
150
Objectives
To:
explain why the share of industry in developed countries has declined
show the main long-run changes in manufacturing technology
explain the main contribution of Japanese industry to world
technology.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
explain why the relative share of services in the output of the major
economies increased
discuss whether the increase in the share of services was a source of
problems in economies
describe the major differences between flexible production methods
and mass production methods in industry
explain why it was possible in the late twentieth century to have
products that were both cheap and of high quality, and why it was not
in any other period.
Essential reading
Kemp, T. Industrialisation in the non-Western world. (London: Longman, 1989)
[ISBN 0582021820 pbk] pp.200203 and pp.21218.
Further reading
Blackford, M.G. The rise of modern business in Great Britain, the United States
and Japan. (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North California Press, 1988)
[ISBN 0807842028 pbk] pp.12738 and pp.14868.
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.2627.
151
Introduction
In this chapter we will show the changes in the demand for industrial
goods and services in the second half of the twentieth century. We look
closely at the concept of deindustrialisation why the share of industry in
the output of the major industrial economies fell compared with the share
of services.
We will also discuss a related issue long-run changes in technology:
from craft production to the early factory system
from early factory system to mass production
from mass production to flexible production.
And we will use the automobile industry, in particular, the rise of the
Japanese automobile industry as our example.
14.1 Deindustrialisation
We begin with the evidence for deindustrialisation. (Table 14.1)
Shares in total employment by sector (%)
UK
USA
Japan
1870
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
21
34
26
50
17
25
85
4
10
1913
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
12
32
42
32
22
37
61
20
20
1955
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
5
36
47
10
29
53
39
18
37
1980
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
3
26
62
3
22
66
10
25
55
1997
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
1
24
64
3
23
70
5
32
59
Agriculture
Manufacture
19
15
26
Services
79
83
69
152
Activity
Table 14.1 presents a number of intriguing features. Look through the table and find
answers to the following questions:
Did the agricultural labour force fall in all countries?
Was employment in services generally high or low, and was this rising or falling over
time?
Did manufacturing employment rise or fall relative to services?
By the late twentieth century which sector was the greatest employer in all
economies?
Was the shift to services greater in the USA and UK than in Japan?
How far are the data in Table 14.1 affected by differences in productivity in the
different sectors of the economy?
It is possible that the fall in manufacturing employment reflects the fact
that fewer people have been needed in industry compared with services
that is productivity in manufactures grew faster than in services.
Pause and think
Is it likely that productivity in manufactures grew faster than in services?
Actually, the answer is yes. It is easier to use capital to raise productivity in
manufacturing. Many service industries are labour intensive, so we would
expect labour productivity to rise faster in services.
Ask yourself now: what are the implications of these changes in
employment for:
growth rates?
unemployment?
international trade?
The causes of deindustrialisation have been explained in three main ways:
industrial failure
trade specialisation
structural change.
Later we introduce a fourth idea that perhaps the distinction between
manufacturing and services has become blurred.
153
You can see that these criticisms are similar to those which led to
Reaganomics in the USA and Thatcherism in the UK in the 1980s (see
Chapter 13).
One problem was that the solution to industrial inefficiency led to a
further relative decline of the industrial sector. In the UK, for example, the
competitiveness of industry was far higher in 1990 than it was in 1979.
But industry was also relatively smaller. Competitiveness had risen because
the less efficient firms had disappeared, leaving only the most efficient
firms, which were leaner and fitter.
Pause and think
How valid were the criticisms in the bullet list of the older industrial economies?
Something that you might consider is that in the 1970s, Germany, Japan, France and
Italy, the faster growing economies, were, in general, more bureaucratic than the UK and
the USA. In addition, most of these countries had more powerful unions than the UK
and the USA. Perhaps the critics of the UK and USA were missing the real reasons for
deindustrialisation?
154
This argument says that services will always grow relative to manufactures
because of productivity differences. Historically, it has normally been much
easier to increase productivity in industry than in services. (Although
there also many examples where productivity can increase in services,
for example roads, railways, utilities and financial services.) This means
that as manufacturing output rose, fewer people were needed to make
the same output. Hence manufacturing employment declined relative to
service employment. But output of manufactures did not. This is shown in
Table 14.2
Manufacturing
Marketed services
Non-marketed services
France
Germany
Japan
UK
USA
3.7
1.5
1.9
2.9
2.7
1.4
4.6
2.5
1.9
3.3
1.9
0.4
2.1
1.1
-0.3
Source: IMF
Table 14.2 Percentage growth in output per hour by sector, 197395
France
Germany
Japan
UK
USA
2.0
0.9
1.4
1.2
1.2
France
Germany
Japan
UK
USA
1503
1523
1758
1483
1610
Table 14.2 confirms that in the late twentieth century, the growth in
output per hour in manufacturing was higher than it was in services
that is labour productivity growth was higher. The table also shows
that productivity growth in non-traded services, which are largely those
provided by governments, such as education or health appear low
compared with marketed services. This could be misleading, however. The
output of government services is not always sold, and therefore, because
it has no price it cannot be counted as output. In this case, the output is
usually measured by the input. This means, for example, that the output of
a state university is largely counted as the salaries of its staff and is almost
certainly understated (see below).
Table 14.4 shows that there are considerable variations in the number of
hours worked per year in manufacturing. France, for example, had more
holidays (more time off per worker) but produced more per unit of labour
than the USA and Japan.
Activity
Estimate how much it would cost you to buy a television, video recorder, stereo,
refrigerator, cooking stove and small second-hand car in your country.
Assuming that the products last approximately seven years, what does your total for
the point above represent as a percentage of annual average income in your country?
How much does a university place cost in your country? (How much does the
government pay and how much the individual?)
What proportion of average income is this?
Comparing your answers, what does this say about the relationship between the cost
of manufacturing and service products?
My rough calculation for the UK cost of the consumer goods would be
about 7,500, which would mean an average UK family paying 4 per cent
of their annual income to acquire them.
In 2012, it is estimated that the UK Government will charge 9000 per
year in fees at most British universities. This will cover most, but not the
entire, fee. In addition, a student will need about 10,000 for living costs
etc. This is 65 per cent of the average wage for the three (or four) years of
a first degree. Fortunately, the cost can be spread over a long time frame,
but the debt will then increase.
This example shows that as income rises in developed countries, relatively
less is spent on manufactures because they are so cheap, and relatively
more on services because they are more expensive. It is possible
155
156
The question of whether public services are less productive than private
ones is not easy to answer. Crudely, the argument is that because
government output is not traded (sold) there is no criterion against which
to judge efficiency. Government services are therefore often considered to
be over-staffed and inefficient.
The problem is that we observe only the inputs that go into government
services (e.g. the cost of the labour working in a hospital) not the output
(e.g. a higher standard of health for the population as a whole).
But the output of a public service could be very large. For example, the
additional output created by a university degree may not be easy to
measure, but all countries think that a highly educated labour force is
essential for economic growth. (Although the private return is higher, of
course, which is why the British and other governments expect individuals
to pay.)
Nor is it true that all government services are not traded. (A governmentowned airline sells its output, for example.) Much of the output of
government is sold in competitive markets.
We conclude that there is no evidence that economies which have a
high proportion of their output in services were (or are) necessarily less
efficient than economies with a smaller proportion in services.
Pause and think
Could a country export only services and import all its manufactured goods?
Currently the market for traded services in the world is limited. Services
are only one third of world exports of goods and services combined. In
fact, it is probably more difficult for countries to increase their exports of
services than of manufactures. This means that an economy that is highly
dependent on exporting services has to be very productive in order to
compete. It is probably easier to compete in the export of manufactures.
158
LABOUR
PRODUCTIVITY
J
US
JUS
E
NIC
QUALITY
Figure 14.1 Quality and productivity in world car production in the 1980s
Activity
Study Figure 14.1 which shows the relationship between labour productivity and quality.
It includes car plants in Japan, the USA, Europe and the NICs (newly industrialised countries)
and also Japanese-owned plants in the USA (JUS in the diagram). The further out on the Y
axis, the higher is productivity. The further on the X axis, the higher is the quality.
Write down the main points that the diagram illustrates (seven are listed below). Try this
before reading on.
159
Make sure that you can see that the diagram shows the following:
Japanese plants at that time had the highest productivity and were high
quality.
US plants had high productivity (but less than Japan) but lower quality.
European plants had high quality (the same as Japan) but lower
productivity.
Plants in the NICs (the New Industrial Countries in south and east
Asia) have lower quality and lower productivity.
The US plants achieved high productivity at the expense of quality.
The European plants achieved high quality at the expense of
productivity.
Japanese plants achieved high quality and productivity.
Pause and think
Could Toyotas high performance be due to cultural factors?
Could Japanese workers and managers have some special cultural feature that makes
them perform well?
The productivity differences were not because the Japanese workers were
different to non-Japanese workers. We may see this from the performance
of Japanese-owned and American-owned plants in USA, both of which had
American workers. The Japanese-owned plants had higher quality than the
American-owned plants but the same productivity as the American-owned
plants.
The conclusion of the Toyota study was that Japanese plants had achieved
high productivity and high quality because their production methods were
more flexible than American ones.
This was a consequence of the particular problems of the Japanese motor
industry in its early years. Japan did not have a mass-produced consumer
car industry until the 1950s. The market was too small and the economy
had been destroyed in the Second World War. In other words there was a
desperate shortage of capital.
Not long after the war, Toyota engineers returned from the USA with
some second-hand American machinery. But because Toyota had very
little capital it could not use the inflexible high volume machines, made
for American mass-production methods. It took the company ten years to
work out how to use the machines flexibly. This led to what is called total
quality control. (In total quality control the workers are individually
responsible for the quality of the product.) The companies introduced just
in time production because they did not have the capital to hold large
stocks of materials (see below).
Pause and think
The Japanese car companies must have been maximising the use of particular resources
by introducing total quality control. Which resources were they?
By the early 1970s Japanese imports were making inroads into the US
domestic market.
The American car producers knew that by the 1970s the large Japanese
car plants had higher productivity than American car plants.
American car producers misread the signals and thought that the
reason for Japanese success was automation.
This led American companies to introduce robots in car assembly. So
they built highly automated plants just to make a single model.
Even with robotic car assembly labour productivity was still lower than
in Japan.
Another problem was that the new integrated plants were very
inflexible. If the model they were building turned out to sell badly, it
was very expensive to change the plant and produce a different one.
LABOUR
PRODUCTIVITY
JAPAN
USA
NIC
EUROPE
AUTOMATION
Figure 14.2 Automation and productivity in world car production in the 1980s
Study the diagram. (NIC stands for newly industrialising countries.) The
further along the X axis a country is, the greater the degree of automation;
the further along the Y axis, the greater the productivity. The diagram
shows that the Americans had less automation and less productivity
than Japan. European producers had high automation but not very high
productivity. The point was that there was no direct relationship between
automation and labour productivity.
14.3.2 Manufacturability
The Toyota study of the 1980s discovered another difference between
Japanese and other cars. They asked all the car companies which car was
the easiest to manufacture. Nearly all producers in the world said that
Japanese car design made it easier to assemble the cars. It was
thought that half of the Japanese cost advantage was because of better
design and about a half was because of better factory organisation.
Pause and think
How did Japanese plants manage to achieve both low cost and high quality?
161
Summary
Massive changes in the productivity of industry and the quality of
products reduced the inputs needed to produce high quality products.
There is now much less of a trade off between quality and cost.
Consumers in developed countries have a whole range of good quality
products at low prices and still have money left over.
Transport costs are now much lower than previously.
Since the consumer in the developed country is not going to spend
more on food (as opposed to on restaurants) they spend it on services.
162
Questions
1. Why was deindustrialisation a major concern of the large industrial
economies in the late twentieth century? Was the alarm justified?
2. Account for the success of the Japanese motor industry and the relative
failure of the American motor industry in the later twentieth century.
3. Examine the main differences between best practice mass-production
methods of the mid-twentieth century and flexible manufacturing
methods of the late twentieth century.
163
Notes
164
Chapter 15: International trade and developing countries in the late twentieth century
Objectives
To:
identify those developing economies which have been successful
examine the relation between developed and developing countries
look at some simple models of economic development
understand those factors which make development more likely.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading and
activities, you should be able to:
give the main reasons why first one country, then another dominated
the international economy
explain why it took less time for Japan to catch up the USAs position
in the international economy than it had for the USA to catch up the
UKs position
account for the rise of the Chinese economy (see Chapter 16)
explain whether the circumstances of the international economy were
more favourable to the poorest countries in the past than they are
today
describe and analyse some of the main ways that poor countries have
developed in the past.
Essential reading
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed The growth of the international economy,
18202000: an introductory text. (London: Routledge, 1999) fourth edition
[ISBN 0415199301 pbk] pp.25366 and pp.31726.
Further reading
Foreman-Peck, J. A history of the world economy: international economic
relations since 1850. (New York: Harvester/Wheatsheaf, 1995) second
edition [ISBN 0745009352 pbk] pp.2704, pp.31519, pp.3249, pp.3323
and pp.3446.
Jones, E., L. Frost and C. White Coming full circle. An economic history of the
Pacific Rim. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993) [ISBN 0813312418 pbk]
pp.11215 and pp.15663.
165
Introduction
In this chapter we consider whether or not economic conditions were more
conducive to the economic development of the poorer countries in the late
twentieth century than in the early twentieth century.
We discuss the effects on the less developed countries of changes in
international economic relations and in the economies of the richer
countries.
There is also an appraisal of the relationship between trade and growth
in historical perspective which will include a brief description of the
contrasting growth paths followed by developing countries.
c. 1890
= manufacturers
USA
PP
USA
c. 1950
UK
PP
J
c. 1990
USA
PP
C
c. 2010
PP
USA
Chapter 15: International trade and developing countries in the late twentieth century
Typical products
Reasons?
UK
18001914
textiles/ships
USA
19141970
cars/machinery
resources/management/research
Japan
19701995
cars/electronics
management/research
China
1995
manufactures
low wages/management
The first column shows the period when the country was the most
important one in the international economy. The second column gives
example important products that helped the country to be the most
important exporter and the third column gives a simple reason why the
countrys exports were able to dominate. Try the next activity.
Activity
As we said, Table 15.1 is very crude and very simplified. Try adding industries and reasons
for their success to the table.
Next we consider in more detail the cases of Britain, the USA and Japan.
15.1.1 Britain
Pause and think
What was Britains success in the pre-1914 period based upon? Use Figure 15.1 and
Table 15.1 to answer the question.
The British success was based upon a combination of technology and
human capital and by the economys marketing expertise.
In textiles for example, the British used a technology, which maximised the
supply of highly skilled textile workers, which they had, in abundance.
The skills were not learnt by formal training but by learning on the job.
This meant that the early start was important for UK trade. The longer
industry had been developing in the UK, the greater the supply of human
capital. The same argument may be applied to its marketing success. This
is another example of path dependency (see 6.7.1 in Chapter 6).
The other advantage of an early start, which we discussed in Chapter 2, was
that the first industrial country gained access, through trade with the New
World, to a source of raw materials and foodstuffs and a market for exports.
167
15.1.3 Japan
The reasons for the increasing importance of the Japanese economy are
different to the reasons for the USA when it was the dominant economy.
Japanese industry is highly technological and produces very high quality
products. Therefore its success depends on a high level of skills plus
research and development programmes.
Research in Japan occurs within large business corporations, unlike in
the UK and the USA where it is more likely to come from universities
and research units. It was Japanese not American industry that created
reprogrammable machines which were different to the American massproduction machines of an earlier period.
Pause and think
The UK dominated the international economy for over 100 years.
The USA dominated it for not much more than 50 years.
Japan dominated it for not much more than 20 years.
In each case the catch-up time was less. Why has the catch-up period got shorter each
time?
168
Chapter 15: International trade and developing countries in the late twentieth century
The reason for the catch-up period reducing is, of course, that the world
economy has become much more integrated. Direct foreign investment is
much commoner than in the past. (In a recent publication, the World Bank
estimated that, on average, 56 per cent of each countrys share capital and
government stock was held overseas.)
Globalisation has had an important effect for developing countries. It
is now possible, for example, to purchase turnkey plants which come
complete and ready to operate (the Brazilian steel industry has done this).
In the nineteenth century technical transfer depended on the transfer
of skills, which were difficult to acquire outside the already developed
economies. Hence it was difficult for other countries to catch-up with the
UK because they did not have the UKs stock of human capital.
15.1.3.1 Japan and the international economy
Pause and think
Japanese exports were large through the 1980s compared with Japanese imports. Did
this create a yen gap?
It is important to remember that:
Exchange rates were flexible in the 1980s. Hence the yen rose 100 per
cent against the dollar in the 1980s.
The yens rise increased the price of Japanese exports, and perhaps
more importantly, reduced the price of Japanese imports.
There was a big rise in imports into Japan in the 1980s. About half of
the imports were manufactures.
Pause and think
Where do you think Japanese imports in the 1980s came from?
The rise in the yen had encouraged Japanese corporations to invest in
overseas production, particularly in south-east Asia.
Many of the industrial products were exported from south-east Asia
to Japan (car parts, car assembly, computer assembly, and consumer
durables).
Pause and think
Does the evidence above suggest that Japan is ceasing to be a major industrial economy?
In the 1980s, Japanese industrial imports were relatively lowtechnology products. Examples included washing machines and
televisions. Japan did not import high value-added products, only
exported them.
The composition of Japanese industrial exports has changed.
Increasingly, Japan exports industrial technology rather than products.
This was similar to the British position in the international economy
before the First World War, with one crucial difference. The UK was
importing high-tech products at that time; Japan in the late twentieth
century was not.
Pause and think
Why has Japans importance in the international economy diminished?
169
15.1.4 China
Although China is technically a socialist country, a series of reforms from
about 1995 onwards made it capitalist. It has now become the dominant
producer of industrial goods. Because the country is still quite poor, GNP
per capita is about $4700 a year. Import demand does not equal the
demand for exports. There is a large luxury trade in China high quality
motor cars, fashion items, etc. But the majority of the population does not
buy them. On the other hand, demand for raw materials is very large,
because the country is still at the stage of developing major industries.
(For example, the Australian economy is becoming increasingly dependent
on Chinese demand for iron ore and coal.)
Hence, because on average China is poor and because savings are very
high, it has a balance of trade surplus. This is partly invested abroad,
in, for example, African raw materials and partly it helps pay for other
countries trade deficits. So, for example, about 15 per cent of the USA
trade deficit is financed by China. One effect of this is to stop the Renminbi
rising, which is good for Chinas exports.
Both Japan and China will be discussed in greater detail in Chapter 16.
Chapter 15: International trade and developing countries in the late twentieth century
One piece of evidence to think about it this over recent decades, primary
products has been a decreasing proportion of international trade.
16%
1953
11%
1980s
2%
2010
4%
Table 15.2 UK net imports, food and raw materials (as a percentage of GNP)
Since the Second World War UK raw material imports have declined
relatively and absolutely. The UK can import all the primary products
it needs at very low cost only 4 per cent of GDP in 2010. Obviously,
this does not provide a large market for primary products from the less
developed countries. (This is much lower proportionately than UK imports
in 1914.)
Activity
You should try to work out why this happened yourself before reading further. The things
to think about are deindustrialisation, changing demand, price levels and agricultural
protection. Another factor special to Britain was the exploitation of oil from the North Sea
during the 1980s; this affects Table 15.2.
The reasons for the change in imports were:
Deindustrialisation: We discussed this in Chapter 14. In developed
countries productivity in industry increased very fast, which meant that
the price of industrial goods fell. People could purchase large quantities
of consumer goods at low prices. Since many people could buy all
the consumer goods they needed, they spent more of their increased
income on services, and the share of manufactures in output fell. But
services needed fewer raw materials. So, as income rose, the demand
for raw materials fell.
Engels Law: This observation, made by Marxs collaborator
Freidrich Engels is that, as income rises, the proportion of household
income spent on basic necessities declines. As a result, the demand
for food increases at a slower rate than the demand for manufactured
goods and services.
Pause and think
Try to put the argument above in terms of the income elasticity of demand for food.
With the exception of oil, the price of food and raw materials has
been low since the Korean war, when prices were high. This is because of
technology and competition between producers.
Pause and think
Technology and competition between producers might lead us to expect an increase in
demand. Why was there was little increase in demand using the concept of price elasticity
of demand?
171
North Sea oil: This was the reason why UK imports were so low in
the 1980s. A fraction of it provided most of the countrys energy needs.
The rest was exported. At its peak, North Sea oil comprised five per
cent of UK GDP.
Agricultural protection. All industrial countries support agriculture
and protect their farmers against imports. The USA is currently
the worst offender. The UK as part of the EU follows the Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP). Under the CAP, European farmers are partly
protected. European consumers pay more for European products than
they would if they imported them from outside the EU. For a long time,
UK farmers were investing heavily in protected agricultural products
leading to amazing increases in productivity.
wheat
barley
land
+64%
+166%
output
+350%
+442%
120
145
240
248
The table shows that after a period of less than thirty years, the average
cow in the UK produced double the milk and the average hen twice as
many eggs. Output of wheat rose by 3.5 times, through an increase in the
area sown and a two times increase in yield per hectare.
Pause and think
Is protecting agriculture the correct policy for a country like the UK?
What are the effects of the UK agriculture protection policy on the poorest countries?
Which country would benefit most if there were no tariffs in the UK?
Would the UK be a poor country if it removed its tariffs?
172
Chapter 15: International trade and developing countries in the late twentieth century
173
174
Chapter 15: International trade and developing countries in the late twentieth century
The late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries were not uniquely
favourable to international trade in primary products.
Primary product prices were not high relative to the prices of
manufactures. In other words the terms of trade were not much more
favourable than today.
The reason why the industrial countries bought large amounts of
primary products in the nineteenth century was because they were
cheap, i.e. because the terms of trade were against primary products.
Pause and think
Would an LDC develop faster if the price of its exports was high or low?
If the prices of primary products are high, industrial countries will develop
substitutes such as plastics to replace metal, and synthetics to replace
rubber and cotton. In any case it is not the price alone that matters to
LDCs but the total revenue from exports (price times quantity). In the
nineteenth century, countries bought large quantities of primary products
because they were cheap.
Therefore low prices on their own are not a reason to avoid exporting
primary products. But that leaves the basic question unanswered can
trade be an engine of growth? To answer this let us look at the other
possibility: can growth be an engine for trade?
175
In other words, what matters is not finding markets for export crops. What
matters is having the foundations for growth that can then take advantage
of world markets through trade.
In the main, the large LDCs have grown faster than the developed
countries since the Second World War. Countries like India have grown
as fast as the industrial countries, though rapid population growth
makes the per capita growth rate less. It is simply that the big LDCs
were very poor in 1945. So it will take them a long time for their
income to catch up with the rich countries.
As we saw in Chapter 11, the oil crises were a particular problem for
the LDCs, most of which are oil importers. The crises left many LDCs
with huge debts.
Summary
Conditions affecting LDCs, with the significant exception of the oil crises,
are not very different than they were in the early twentieth century. The
key to their development is not, in the main, exporting primary products.
Rather it is establishing the right social and political conditions to allow
growth to begin. Trade will then follow.
Questions
1. Was the international economy of the early twentieth century more
favourable to trade in primary products than the late twentieth
century?
2. Why did manufactures become the most important components of
international trade in the later twentieth century?
176
Objectives
To:
show how first Japan and then China industrialised very fast and how
they became important players in the international economy
show how the communist regime in China was unable to deliver
economic growth and was replaced by a system which was largely
capitalist in nature including (in effect) private ownership of land and
industry.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading,
you should be able to:
explain the main features of growth in these countries
discover why countries that were very poor, for example, China, grew
very fast in the last 60 years
explain the significance of the relative fall of the Japanese economy in
recent years
show how socialism was replaced by capitalism
explain why growth was different in some periods than in others.
Reading
China
Jones, E., L. Frost and C. White Coming full circle. An economic history of the
Pacific Rim. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993) [ISBN 0813312418
pbk] pp.12230.
Naughton, B. The Chinese economy: transitions and growth. (Cambridge, MA:
MIT Press, 2006) [ISBN 9780262640640 pbk]pp.210, pp.338, pp.6982,
pp.87101, pp.11434, pp.14050, pp.1567, pp.16472, pp.2104,
pp.27582, pp.37886 and pp.3918.
Japan
Jones, E., L. Frost and C. White Coming full circle. An economic history of the
Pacific Rim. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993) [ISBN 0813312418
pbk] pp.10721.
Mosk, C. Japanese economic development: markets, norms, structures. (Abingdon:
Routledge, 2008) [ISBN 9780415771580] pp.2318, pp.26359, pp.26472,
pp.278282, pp.3058, pp.3126, pp.32131 and pp.33752.
177
Introduction
Both Japan and China were devastated by the effects of the Second World
War. Japan was richer and continued its development of capitalism. But
there were several features that were unique to Japanese society.
China initially pursued a policy of strict socialism, which only had a
modest growth rate. Hence the strict socialism had to be replaced by
largely free markets and private ownership of industry. This has led to very
high rates of economic growth.
16.1 China
China has achieved an average growth rate of 10 per cent from 1978 (per
capita, 8.5 per cent). Because of the world depression the average growth
rate is now a bit lower but still 8 per cent or so. At these rates China
will overtake US GDP, per capita, round about 2050. Of course, we dont
know whether this will actually occur. For example, it was predicted that,
per capita, Japanese growth would exceed US GDP by 2005, but, in fact
Japanese GDP was only 80 per cent of US GDP in 2005.
The important features of the Chinese economy are:
Initially, China was very poor.
China is moving away from a socialist economy and moving towards
many features of a market economy.
China is in the middle of an industrial revolution, with profound
changes to its economy and society.
11.8 million and Beijing only rose 6.7 million to 9.1 million in this period.)
In roughly the same period (195082), the urban growth in most of the
less developed countries grew about 200 per cent. Most significantly, the
government controlled the export of food (that is, from the countryside)
to the cities. This was at low prices, which obviously befitted the cities, but
meant that the farmers could not benefit directly from industrialisation.
In other words, the farmers did not receive high prices from the urban
population.
Pause and think
What was the governments objective? Why restrict ruralurban movement?
Perhaps the government realised that if there were no controls, the
number of migrants would be very large. This is what happened in most
less developed countries. Urban wages, in the period, were very low. But
rural wages were much lower.
180
19521978
6.0
1.9
4.1
19782005
9.6
1.1
8.5
181
The benefits to urban workers include job security, health care and
education for their children. Urban workers also gained access to low cost
housing from their employers on favourable terms. Rural workers, on the
other hand, pay more for health services about 90 per cent of health care
expenses, even though their income is lower than urban workers. This
means that there are large differences between urban and rural workers
about three times, in effect.
And it is difficult for rural residents to change their place of work
permanently, even if the rural resident was married to an urban resident.
Only those with permanent residence permits have the right to live in
the city. This has been liberalised since 1980, but not completely. It is still
virtually impossible for a rural worker to live in Shanghai or Beijing, for
instance. But movement to the cities was commonplace in virtually all the
countries at a similar level of development. So a basic problem emerges.
How is China going to cater for large numbers of rural workers who want
jobs in the city? Will they be able to forbid it?
16.1.9 Trade
In 2005, exports were around 34 per cent of GDP. Membership of the
World Trade Organisation (WTO), from 1991, has had a major effect on
trade. In the early 1990s, Chinese trade was about 15 per cent of GDP.
By 20045 it had grown to nearly 30 per cent and then to 34 per cent
in 2005. Most major trading countries blame the Renminbi, which is
normally assumed to be an undervalued currency. But, say, a devaluation
of the Renminbi by some 10 per cent would have an effect on trade, but
Chinese trade would still be very important. The Chinese were able to join
the World Trade Organisation in 2001. This was because of a further set of
market reforms, which in turn led to a further acceleration in the growth
rate.
16.1.9.1 Exports and imports
Initially, China exported products largely based on natural resources. After
1985 Chinas trade grew rapidly. But increasingly the raw material trade
was replaced by manufacturing products. These were labour intensive.
When China became a member of the World Trade Organisation in 2002,
this mean that a high proportion of imports could enter the Chinese
182
16.2 Japan
There is some more material about Japanese industry in Chapter 14 and
foreign trade in Chapter 15.
16.2.3 Tenancy
Most farmers were tenants before the Second World War owing rent to
landlords. But, after the war, the USA (who was the occupying power) had
legislated against tenancy. So landlordism was destroyed. By 1950, only 12
per cent of peasant workers were tenants. As the economy was developing
very rapidly, the surplus labour could leave the farm. Hence, a large
number of farmers moved into (small scale) industry. The better educated
urban workers moved into modern industry.
183
called seniority wages, with the oldest person having the highest income
in the company. But this has declined in recent years. Moreover, seniority
wages were very useful when the labour force was so young in the 1950s
and 1960s. But in the present day, the Japanese have an extremely old
population with the increasing problems of an older labour force.
But there are problems with a view that the Japanese are culturally
different. Confucianism (the majority Japanese belief) has not been a
very good predictor of economic growth. For example, the Japanese
performance has been rather poor in more recent years, and does not look
likely to overtake the USA in income per capita. Of course, Japan started
out with the labour costs of a developing country. Now it has the labour
costs of a higher productivity country.
185
186
Summary
China was a desperately poor country at the end of the Second World
War. The government tried to produce a socialist state but this failed.
From about 1976, agricultural productivity grew faster. Industry became
capitalist, and this led to enormous growth in construction and overseas
trade.
Japan was the first Asian country to industrialise, particularly after the
Second World War. Progress was so fast that some people thought that
Japan would exceed US GDP per capita by about 2010. However, in early
1992, Japan suffered a collapse from which it has not fully recovered.
Questions
1. Why has China become more capitalist and less socialist?
2. Account for the success of foreign trade in China.
3. Why has the Japanese growth rate been no more than 2 per cent in the
last 15 years compared with 4 per cent in the period after 1973?
187
Notes
188
Objectives
To:
understand how the US economy affected the rest of the world
understand how incorrect polices made the situation more serious.
Learning outcomes
By the end of this chapter, and having completed the Essential reading,
you should be able to:
explain how the problem of the US economy spread so quickly around
the world
discuss the main problem of the securitisation of assets
describe how far the main policies were appropriate
identify the problems of the US housing market.
Essential reading
Stiglitz, J. Freefall: free markets and the sinking of the global economy. (London:
Penguin Books, 2010) [ISBN 9780141045122 pbk] pp.5066, pp.7786,
pp.10920, pp.13646, pp.16972, pp.18692, pp.198200, pp.30915,
pp.3258 and pp.3359.
Further reading
Krugman, P. The return of depression economics and the crisis of 2008. (London:
Penguin Books, 2008) [ISBN 9781846142390 pbk] pp.928, pp.5676,
pp.96100, pp.1205, pp.16580, pp.1856 and p.189.
Introduction
The financial crisis came as a shock to many people. But it neednt have.
In the first place, much of the world had had similar experiences Japan,
Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Argentina, for example. However, it
was thought that the countries of the west would be immune to a slump
and a serious fall in their GNP. The prevailing theory was the Washington
consensus, which held that a slump was impossible.
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There was too much money going into real estate debt. This financed a
housing bubble, of course, but also a consumption binge. House ownership
in the USA increased very rapidly. Normally, a 20 per cent deposit was
required to buy a house. This was thought to go back to Franklin Roosevelt
in the 1930s. But around 2000 the banks or their agents started to
sell mortgages to people who had little financial resources. And these
mortgages were often 100 per cent that is, there was no deposit. But
in the long run, many people were unable to afford the repayment. The
banks made their money in several ways, but, for example, there was a big
increase in mortgage fees (the fees for negotiating the mortgage). Many
of the purchasers walked away from their property if they were unable to
buy them. The original bank, however, had already sold on the mortgage
to other banks. Some of these mortgages were good ones that is, they
would repay the bank but these were bundled up with poor mortgages. If
the house was given up it didnt matter as the bank would sell on a rising
market, but in 2007, the market turned down. The banks were left holding
quantities of worthless houses. Some of these banks were rather remote.
There were quite a few in Germany, for example.
Of course, the problem that the banks faced meant that too much money
was going into real estate. But the banks all bet that there was no real
estate bubble and that real estate prices would not fall. Of course, the
problem was systematic risk. All the banks tried to sell loans at the same
time, so prices fell everywhere at the same time. Foreclosure notices in
the USA were already 1.3 million in 2007. In 2008 they were 2.3 million.
Moodys thought that 3.6 homes million would default and 2.6 million
households would lose their homes in 2009.
The problem is that the big banks became too big to fail. The banks knew
that the effects of bank failures would lead to devastating losses in the
real economy. Projects could not be completed, leading to unemployment,
ordinary citizens would lose their savings, pensioners income would be
lost etc. Hence, many of the banks assumed that the government would
step in to save them.
One problem was securitisation. These were a collection of mortgage
obligations (collateralised mortgage obligations) which were sold on to
other banks. In the second quarter of 2008, there were $10.24 trillion
outstanding. That is almost ten months of the annual US income. But it
was very difficult to apportion the risks that the banks were running. This
is a classic problem of imperfect information. The market did a very bad
job of being risk averse that is, they did not know how to apportion risk.
The bank itself always knows more than its customers big or small. This
would include the government. Hence, the government had little option
but to aid the banks.
In addition, a lot of the banks had been working off balance sheet, so
that shareholders could not tell what they were doing. The staff of the
banks were paid with stock options. This was one of the easiest ways to
move potential losses off balance sheet while recording profitable fees.
What should have happened is that the banks should have moved to real
incentive pay in other words, pay should reflect the actual performance
of the bank. For example, Lehman Brothers had a net worth of $26 billion
shortly before its collapse. But the hole in its balance sheet was getting
close to $200 billion.
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large Dutch bank with undisclosed liabilities was their undoing. By 2009,
the government owned 68 per cent of RBS. British banks are still in the
doldrums. They wont be as affected as the French and German banks by
the problems of the Euro because Britain is not in the eurozone. But
the banks are still not lending to small businesses and the rate of new
house building is at its lowest peacetime rate since the 1920s. In 2010,
the Labour government was replaced by a coalition of Conservatives and
Liberal-Democrats. They immediately embarked on a policy of cutting
government spending and raising taxes. This policy is more restrictive than
any policy of all the major countries and the IMF. It is designed to reduce
the government deficit from 11.2 per cent of GDP to 4 per cent, which was
the pre-2007 rate, in four years. Many, included the IMF, think that it is too
harsh. Only time will tell.
Summary
The world depression started in the US housing market, quickly spreading
to US banks, other financial institutions and overseas. In many countries,
some banks collapsed and others were taken over by government.
The main cause was the profligate lending policy of banks, leading to
enormous debts on government account. At the time of writing, for
example, the USA is still experiencing the effects of the depression and the
Euro is still suffering problems. But in Asia, for example, there is a much
higher growth rate.
Questions
1. Why was the housing market in the USA at the forefront of the
depression of 2008?
2. What has been the effect on the Euro on the international depression
starting in 2008?
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Section A
Answer one question from this section and not more than a further
two questions. (You are reminded that four questions in total are to be
attempted with at least one question from Section B.)
1.
2.
3.
What were the main economic consequences of the First World War?
4.
5.
Discuss the reasons for the seriousness of the Depression of the early
1930s in any two the following countries: USA, Germany, France or
the UK.
6.
Why did the international economy fail to recover after the Depression
of the early 1930s when most national economies did recover?
Section B
Answer one question from this section and not more than a further
two questions. (You are reminded that four questions in total are to be
attempted with at least one question from Section A.)
7.
8.
What was the nature of the dollar gap in Europe immediately after the
Second World War? How was the gap closed?
9.
10. Account for the fluctuating fortunes of the major car industries in the
second half of the twentieth century.
11. Should the so-called deindustrialisation of the developed economies
in the late twentieth century be considered a problem?
12. How far have changes in the international economy in the later
twentieth century been to the advantage or disadvantage of the less
developed countries?
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Notes
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