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    BASS Simulation Sundar

    Uploaded by

    Boi Hutagalung
    This document simulates sales of a new product over time using the Bass diffusion model, which models sales as a function of innovation (p) and imitation (q) effects. It runs multiple simulations varying the values of p and q. The first simulation sets p to 0.0039 and q to 0.753, resulting in rapid growth in sales peaking around 1998 then declining slowly to zero by 2025. Subsequent simulations explore the impact of varying p and q values.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    BASS Simulation Sundar

    Uploaded by

    Boi Hutagalung
    45 views13 pages
    This document simulates sales of a new product over time using the Bass diffusion model, which models sales as a function of innovation (p) and imitation (q) effects. It runs multiple simulations varying the values of p and q. The first simulation sets p to 0.0039 and q to 0.753, resulting in rapid growth in sales peaking around 1998 then declining slowly to zero by 2025. Subsequent simulations explore the impact of varying p and q values.

    Original Description:

    Simulation of Sales with prediction pi and q

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    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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    This document simulates sales of a new product over time using the Bass diffusion model, which models sales as a function of innovation (p) and imitation (q) effects. It runs multiple simulations varying the values of p and q. The first simulation sets p to 0.0039 and q to 0.753, resulting in rapid growth in sales peaking around 1998 then declining slowly to zero by 2025. Subsequent simulations explore the impact of varying p and q values.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    45 views13 pages

    BASS Simulation Sundar

    Uploaded by

    Boi Hutagalung
    This document simulates sales of a new product over time using the Bass diffusion model, which models sales as a function of innovation (p) and imitation (q) effects. It runs multiple simulations varying the values of p and q. The first simulation sets p to 0.0039 and q to 0.753, resulting in rapid growth in sales peaking around 1998 then declining slowly to zero by 2025. Subsequent simulations explore the impact of varying p and q values.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 13

    SIMULATION of

    p and q
    103,000,000 N
    0.0039 p
    0.753 q

    25

    20

    SALES

    results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2


    Year
    Sales
    Cum. Sales
    1989
    0
    0
    1990
    401,700
    401,700
    1991
    701,434
    1,103,134
    1992
    1,219,161
    2,322,295
    1993
    2,101,904
    4,424,199
    1994
    3,572,772
    7,996,971
    1995
    5,924,702
    13,921,673
    1996
    9,413,520
    23,335,193
    1997
    13,901,200
    37,236,393
    1998
    18,158,867
    55,395,259
    1999
    19,464,483
    74,859,743
    2000
    15,510,223
    90,369,966
    2001
    8,393,490
    98,763,455
    2002
    3,075,426
    101,838,882
    2003
    868,994
    102,707,876
    2004
    220,485
    102,928,361
    2005
    54,186
    102,982,547
    2006
    13,208
    102,995,755
    2007
    3,213
    102,998,968
    2008
    781
    102,999,749
    2009
    190
    102,999,939
    2010
    46
    102,999,985
    2011
    11
    102,999,996
    2012
    3
    102,999,999
    2013
    1
    103,000,000
    2014
    0
    103,000,000
    2015
    0
    103,000,000
    2016
    0
    103,000,000
    2017
    0
    103,000,000
    2018
    0
    103,000,000
    2019
    0
    103,000,000
    2020
    0
    103,000,000
    2021
    0
    103,000,000
    2022
    0
    103,000,000
    2023
    0
    103,000,000
    2024
    0
    103,000,000
    2025
    103,000,000
    2026
    103,000,000
    2027
    103,000,000
    2028
    103,000,000
    2029
    103,000,000
    2030
    103,000,000

    Impact of "p" and

    15

    10

    Year

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2031
    2032
    2033
    2034
    2035
    2036
    2037
    2038
    2039
    2040
    2041
    2042
    2043
    2044
    2045

    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000

    Impact of "p" and "q"


    120
    100
    80

    60
    Sales

    Cum. Sales

    40
    20

    1998

    2000

    2002

    YEAR

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    25000000

    120000000

    100000000
    20000000

    80000000
    15000000
    60000000
    Sales

    Cum. Sales

    10000000
    40000000

    5000000
    20000000

    0
    Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

    SIMULATION of
    p and q
    103,000,000 N
    0.0039 p
    0.0753 q

    2.5

    SALES

    results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2


    Year
    Sales
    Cum. Sales
    1989
    0
    0
    1990
    401,700
    401,700
    1991
    430,263
    831,963
    1992
    460,596
    1,292,560
    1993
    492,767
    1,785,327
    1994
    526,842
    2,312,169
    1995
    562,880
    2,875,050
    1996
    600,936
    3,475,985
    1997
    641,052
    4,117,037
    1998
    683,265
    4,800,302
    1999
    727,596
    5,527,898
    2000
    774,052
    6,301,950
    2001
    822,625
    7,124,575
    2002
    873,286
    7,997,861
    2003
    925,984
    8,923,845
    2004
    980,644
    9,904,489
    2005
    1,037,164
    10,941,653
    2006
    1,095,411
    12,037,063
    2007
    1,155,221
    13,192,285
    2008
    1,216,397
    14,408,681
    2009
    1,278,703
    15,687,384
    2010
    1,341,868
    17,029,252
    2011
    1,405,582
    18,434,834
    2012
    1,469,499
    19,904,333
    2013
    1,533,233
    21,437,566
    2014
    1,596,366
    23,033,932
    2015
    1,658,446
    24,692,378
    2016
    1,718,994
    26,411,371
    2017
    1,777,508
    28,188,879
    2018
    1,833,470
    30,022,349
    2019
    1,886,354
    31,908,703
    2020
    1,935,633
    33,844,336
    2021
    1,980,792
    35,825,128
    2022
    2,021,332
    37,846,461
    2023
    2,056,789
    39,903,249
    2024
    2,086,735
    41,989,984
    2025
    2,110,796
    44,100,780
    2026
    2,128,657
    46,229,437
    2027
    2,140,072
    48,369,509
    2028
    2,144,869
    50,514,379
    2029
    2,142,959
    52,657,337
    2030
    2,134,332
    54,791,670

    Impact of "p" and

    1.5

    0.5

    2031
    2032
    2033
    2034
    2035
    2036
    2037
    2038
    2039
    2040
    2041
    2042
    2043
    2044
    2045

    2,119,066
    2,097,320
    2,069,333
    2,035,415
    1,995,945
    1,951,359
    1,902,137
    1,848,798
    1,791,885
    1,731,955
    1,669,567
    1,605,275
    1,539,615
    1,473,101
    1,406,217

    56,910,736
    59,008,056
    61,077,389
    63,112,804
    65,108,749
    67,060,108
    68,962,244
    70,811,042
    72,602,927
    74,334,881
    76,004,448
    77,609,723
    79,149,338
    80,622,440
    82,028,656

    Impact of "p" and "q"


    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    Sales

    Cum. Sales

    30
    20
    10
    0

    YEAR

    SIMULATION of
    p and q
    N= [-b - sqrt(b^2-4ca)]/2c =
    103,000,000 N
    p= a/N =
    0.359 p Hi
    q= b+p =
    0.0043 q Low
    results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2
    Year
    Predicted Sales Predicted Cum. Sales
    1989
    0
    0
    1990
    36,977,000
    36,977,000
    1991
    23,804,177
    60,781,177
    1992
    15,263,686
    76,044,863
    1993
    9,762,468
    85,807,331
    1994
    6,233,756
    92,041,088
    1995
    3,976,359
    96,017,447
    1996
    2,534,726
    98,552,173
    1997
    1,615,070
    100,167,243
    1998
    1,028,806
    101,196,048
    1999
    655,240
    101,851,288
    2000
    417,272
    102,268,560
    2001
    265,710
    102,534,270
    2002
    169,191
    102,703,461
    2003
    107,729
    102,811,190
    2004
    68,593
    102,879,783
    2005
    43,674
    102,923,457
    2006
    27,808
    102,951,265
    2007
    17,705
    102,968,970
    2008
    11,273
    102,980,243
    2009
    7,178
    102,987,421
    2010
    4,570
    102,991,991
    2011
    2,910
    102,994,901
    2012
    1,853
    102,996,753
    2013
    1,180
    102,997,933
    2014
    751
    102,998,684
    2015
    478
    102,999,162
    2016
    304
    102,999,466
    2017
    194
    102,999,660
    2018
    123
    102,999,784
    2019
    79
    102,999,862
    2020
    50
    102,999,912
    2021
    32
    102,999,944
    2022
    20
    102,999,964
    2023
    13
    102,999,977
    2024
    8
    102,999,986
    2025
    5
    102,999,991
    2026
    3
    102,999,994
    2027
    2
    102,999,996
    2028
    1
    102,999,998
    2029
    1
    102,999,998
    2030
    1
    102,999,999
    2031
    0
    102,999,999

    2032
    2033
    2034
    2035
    2036
    2037
    2038
    2039
    2040
    2041
    2042
    2043
    2044
    2045

    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0

    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000
    103,000,000

    40

    120

    35
    100
    30
    80

    Sales

    25
    20

    60

    15
    40
    10
    20
    5
    0

    Year 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044
    Year

    Predicted Sales

    Predicted Cum. Sales

    Millions

    Millions

    Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations


    Varying Values of "p" and "q" (p>>q)

    SIMULATION of
    p and q
    87 N
    0.01 p
    0.38 q

    10
    9
    8
    7
    6
    SALES

    results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2


    Year
    Sales
    Cum. Sales
    1989
    0
    0
    1990
    1
    1
    1991
    1
    2
    1992
    2
    4
    1993
    2
    6
    1994
    3
    9
    1995
    4
    12
    1996
    5
    17
    1997
    6
    23
    1998
    7
    30
    1999
    8
    38
    2000
    9
    47
    2001
    9
    56
    2002
    8
    64
    2003
    7
    70
    2004
    5
    76
    2005
    4
    80
    2006
    3
    82
    2007
    2
    84
    2008
    1
    85
    2009
    1
    86
    2010
    0
    86
    2011
    0
    87
    2012
    0
    87
    2013
    0
    87
    2014
    0
    87
    2015
    0
    87
    2016
    0
    87
    2017
    0
    87
    2018
    0
    87
    2019
    0
    87
    2020
    0
    87
    2021
    0
    87
    2022
    0
    87
    2023
    0
    87
    2024
    0
    87
    2025
    0
    87
    2026
    0
    87
    2027
    0
    87
    2028
    0
    87
    2029
    0
    87
    2030
    0
    87

    ODI- Contact Lenses: Impact

    5
    4
    3
    2
    1
    0
    Year

    1990

    1992

    1994

    2031
    2032
    2033
    2034
    2035
    2036
    2037
    2038
    2039
    2040
    2041
    2042
    2043
    2044
    2045

    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0

    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87
    87

    act Lenses: Impact of "p" and "q"


    90
    80
    70
    60
    50
    40
    Sales

    Cum. Sales

    30
    20
    10
    0

    1996

    1998

    YEAR

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

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