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    Metode Tren Semi Rata-Rata

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    Muh Fuad
    1. The document contains annual time series data from 1997 to 2007 with variables such as year, period, value (Y), projection, and error. 2. Two regression models are fitted to the data: linear regression using the least squares method, and exponential trend line. 3. The linear regression results in a good fit with an intercept of 121.24 and slope of 8.51. The exponential trend line also fits well with R-squared of 0.69.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Metode Tren Semi Rata-Rata

    Uploaded by

    Muh Fuad
    10 views8 pages
    1. The document contains annual time series data from 1997 to 2007 with variables such as year, period, value (Y), projection, and error. 2. Two regression models are fitted to the data: linear regression using the least squares method, and exponential trend line. 3. The linear regression results in a good fit with an intercept of 121.24 and slope of 8.51. The exponential trend line also fits well with R-squared of 0.69.

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    Book11

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    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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    1. The document contains annual time series data from 1997 to 2007 with variables such as year, period, value (Y), projection, and error. 2. Two regression models are fitted to the data: linear regression using the least squares method, and exponential trend line. 3. The linear regression results in a good fit with an intercept of 121.24 and slope of 8.51. The exponential trend line also fits well with R-squared of 0.69.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    10 views8 pages

    Metode Tren Semi Rata-Rata

    Uploaded by

    Muh Fuad
    1. The document contains annual time series data from 1997 to 2007 with variables such as year, period, value (Y), projection, and error. 2. Two regression models are fitted to the data: linear regression using the least squares method, and exponential trend line. 3. The linear regression results in a good fit with an intercept of 121.24 and slope of 8.51. The exponential trend line also fits well with R-squared of 0.69.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xls, pdf, or txt
    of 8

    TAHUN

    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007

    PERIODE
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9

    Y
    47
    115
    125
    120
    130
    128
    135
    140
    160
    155

    PROYEKSI
    ERROR
    92.92
    -45.92
    100.16
    14.84
    107.4
    17.6
    114.64
    5.36
    121.88
    8.12
    129.12
    -1.12
    136.36
    -1.36
    143.6
    -3.6
    150.84
    9.16
    158.08
    -3.08
    92.92

    KELOMPOK 1 : 47 , 115 , 125 , 120 , 130


    KELOMPOK 2 : 128 , 135 , 140 , 160 , 155
    Y1 = 47 + 115 + 125 + 120 + 130
    5

    = 107.4

    Y2 = 128 + 135 + 140 + 160 + 155


    5

    = 143.6

    X1 = 2

    X2 = 7

    Y = a + bX
    Y1 = a + bX1

    : 107.4 = a + b(2) a
    = 107.4 - 2b
    Y2 = a + bX2 : 143.6 = a + b(7) 143.6
    = a + 7b
    = 143.6 = 107.4 - 2b + 7b
    = 36.2 + 5b
    b
    = 36.2 : 5 = 7.24
    a
    = 107.4 - 2 (7.24)
    = 107.4 - 14.48 = 92.92
    Persamaan Trennya : Y = 92.92 + 7.24X
    b = 7.24

    METODE TREN SEMI RATA-RATA

    TAHUN
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007

    PERIODE
    -4
    -3
    -2
    -1
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5

    Y
    47
    115
    125
    120
    130
    128
    135
    140
    160
    155

    PROYEKSI ERROR
    87.182
    -40.182
    95.6971 19.3029
    104.2122 20.7878
    112.7273
    7.2727
    121.2424
    8.7576
    129.7575
    -1.7575
    138.2726
    -3.2726
    146.7877
    -6.7877
    155.3028
    4.6972
    163.8179
    -8.8179
    121.2424 -121.242

    SUMMARY OUTPUT
    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R 0.829654
    R Square 0.688326
    Adjusted R Square
    0.649366
    Standard Error
    18.40043
    Observations
    10
    ANOVA
    df
    Regression
    Residual
    Total

    SS
    MS
    F
    Significance F
    1 5981.894 5981.894 17.66782 0.002983
    8 2708.606 338.5758
    9
    8690.5

    Coefficients
    Standard Error t Stat
    P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
    Upper 95.0%
    Intercept
    121.2424 5.906231 20.52788 3.32E-08 107.6226 134.8622 107.6226 134.8622
    X Variable 1 8.515152 2.02582 4.20331 0.002983 3.843601 13.1867 3.843601 13.1867

    METODE TREN KUADRAT TERKECIL ( LEAST SQUARE )

    Upper 95.0%

    ARE )

    TAHUN PERIODE
    1997
    -4
    1998
    -3
    1999
    -2
    2000
    -1
    2001
    0
    2002
    1
    2003
    2
    2004
    3
    2005
    4
    2006
    5
    JUMLAH
    5

    n
    LogY
    XLogY
    X2

    Y
    47
    115
    125
    120
    130
    128
    135
    140
    160
    155
    1255

    LOG Y
    1.672097858
    2.06069784
    2.096910013
    2.079181246
    2.113943352
    2.10720997
    2.130333768
    2.146128036
    2.204119983
    2.190331698
    20.80095376

    X LOG Y
    -6.68839
    -6.18209
    -4.19382
    -2.07918
    0
    2.10721
    4.260668
    6.438384
    8.81648
    10.95166
    13.43091

    X2
    16
    9
    4
    1
    0
    1
    4
    9
    16
    25
    85

    = 10
    = 20.800
    = 13.430
    = 85

    Maka Persamaan Terbentuk dari Nilai-Nilai tersebut adalah:


    Log a

    =LogY = 20.800
    20.8
    =
    n
    10

    Log b

    13.43
    =
    85

    0.158

    Y = 20.8 + 0.158

    SUMMARY OUTPUT
    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R 0.829654
    R Square 0.688326
    Adjusted R Square
    0.649366
    Standard Error
    18.40043
    Observations
    10
    ANOVA
    df
    Regression
    Residual
    Total

    SS
    MS
    F
    Significance F
    1 5981.894 5981.894 17.66782 0.002983
    8 2708.606 338.5758
    9
    8690.5

    Coefficients
    Standard Error t Stat
    P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
    Upper 95.0%
    Intercept
    121.2424 5.906231 20.52788 3.32E-08 107.6226 134.8622 107.6226 134.8622
    X Variable 1 8.515152 2.02582 4.20331 0.002983 3.843601 13.1867 3.843601 13.1867

    Upper 95.0%

    TAHUN
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007

    PERIODE
    -4
    -3
    -2
    -1
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    5

    Y
    47
    115
    125
    120
    130
    128
    135
    140
    160
    155

    LOG Y pred
    20.168
    20.326
    20.484
    20.642
    20.8
    20.958
    21.116
    21.274
    21.432
    21.59
    21.59

    PROYEKSI
    ERROR
    1.472
    45.528
    2.118 112.882
    3.047 121.953
    4.385 115.615
    6.309 123.691
    9.078 118.922
    1.306 133.694
    1.879 138.121
    2.703 157.297
    3.89
    151.11
    3.89

    METODE TREND EKSPONENSIAL

    TAHUN
    1997
    1998
    1999
    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    Jumlah

    PERIODE
    -4
    -3
    -2
    -1
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    5

    Y
    47
    115
    125
    120
    130
    128
    135
    140
    160
    155
    1255

    XY

    X2
    -188
    -345
    -250
    -120
    0
    128
    270
    420
    640
    775
    1330

    16
    9
    4
    1
    0
    1
    4
    9
    16
    25
    85

    X2Y
    752
    1035
    500
    120
    0
    128
    540
    1260
    2560
    3875
    10770

    N = 10
    Y = 1255
    XY = 1330
    X2 = 85
    X2Y = 10770
    X4 = 1333
    1. 1255 = 10.a + c.85
    2. 1330 = 85b
    3. 10770 = 85a + 1333c
    Mencari Nilai a :
    1225 = 10.a + c.85
    x 85
    10770 = 85a +1333c
    x 10
    Sehingga persamaan nya menjadi :
    95625
    = 850a + 7225c
    107700 = 850a + 13330c
    12075
    6105c
    c
    = 1.978
    Mencari Nilai a :
    10.a + 85(1.978)
    1225 = 9.a + 168.13
    1056.87 = 10.a
    a
    = 1056.87 : 10 = 105.687
    Mencari Nilai b :
    1330 = 85b
    b
    = 15.647
    Persamaan trend paraboliknya adalah :
    Y = 105.687 + 15.647X + 1.978x2

    METODE TREN PARABOLIK

    X4
    256
    81
    16
    1
    0
    1
    16
    81
    256
    625
    1333

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