Gartner Hype Cycle

In this study, a method to simulate Gartner’s hype cycle [1] is proposed. A search of the academic literature on this topic provides no clear guidance on how to draw hype cycle curves with mathematical functions. This article explores a new process for simulating the curve as a combination of bell-shaped curves and S-shaped curves, and applies this process to some high-tech innovations in Japan. Trends in technologies such as customer relationship management (CRM), supply chain management (SCM), and cloud computing are analyzed by using a corpus of 4,772 newspaper articles. For these examples,Gompertz functions show better fit than logistic functions. For the combined curve, polynomial functions of degree 9 provide the best fit, with adjusted R-square values of more than 0.97.

A kötet alapmű a digitális trendek áttekintéséhez és megértéséhez. Egyszerre ad muníciót több szakmának - az IT-tól a marketingig, az üzleti döntéshozástól a felsőoktatás-kutatásig és a művészetig. A szerző átfogó nemzetközi tapasztalatát kamatoztatja példáival és illusztrációival. Az olvasó végül egy hosszabb távon érvényes kötet birtokosa lehet a gyorsan változó trendek világában. Az itt elérhető változat a teljes kötet harminc százaléka. A teljes változat elérhető a mersz.hu, Akadémiai Kiadó oldalon és a könyvesboltokban. Link: http://bit.ly/sc-academia-edu

Judging by recent media reporting and pronouncements by senior
US military and security officials, the use of drones by militant
groups is both reshaping conflict between armed non-state actors
and state parties and now presents a grave and direct threat to
nations in the West and elsewhere. But does this threat warrant
the attention it is currently receiving? To answer this question, this
article surveys how various militant groups have used drones both
tactically on the battlefield and for wider strategic purposes.
Closely examining how drones have been employed and by
whom provides a basis for understanding variation in adoption.
The article shows how drone usage or non-usage is highly
contingent on the setting of the conflict, the aims of different
groups, and the capacity of groups to adopt the technology.
Though advances in drone technology could make the use-case
more appealing for militant groups, drones will be subject to the
same back-and-forth, techno-tactical adaptation dynamic between
adversaries that have accompanied prior military innovations.

In this work we provide an overview of gamification, i.e. the application of methods from game design to enrich non-gaming processes. The contribution is divided into five subsections: an introduction focusing on the progression of gamification through the hype cycle in the recent years (1), a brief introduction to gamification mechanics (1) and an overview of the state of the art in established areas (3). The focus is a discussion of more recent attempts of gamification in service and production (4). We also discuss the ethical implications (5) and the future perspectives (6) of gamified business processes. Gamification has been successfully applied in the domains education (serious games) and health (exergames) and is spreading to other areas. In recent years there have been various attempts to " gamify " business processes. While the first efforts date back as far as the collection of miles in frequent flyer programs, we will portray some of the more recent and comprehensive software-based approaches in the service industry, e.g. the gamification of processes in sales and marketing. We discuss their accomplishments as well as their social and ethical implications. Finally a very recent approach is presented: the application of gamification in the domain of industrial production. We discuss the special requirements in this domain and the effects on the business level and on the users. We conclude with a prognosis on the future development of gamification.

This article recounts some of the basic history of laser weapons in the context of the great-power rivalries of the United States, Russia, and China. The author then offers his perspective on the current escalation of investments in high-tech warfare.

The current statuses and future promises of the Internet of Things (IoT), Internet of Everything (IoE) and Internet of Nano-Things (IoNT) are extensively reviewed and a summarized survey is presented. The analysis clearly distinguishes between IoT and IoE, which are wrongly considered to be the same by many commentators. After evaluating the current trends of advancement in the fields of IoT, IoE and IoNT, this paper identifies the 21 most significant current and future challenges as well as scenarios for the possible future expansion of their applications. Despite possible negative aspects of these developments, there are grounds for general optimism about the coming technologies. Certainly, many tedious tasks can be taken over by IoT devices. However, the dangers of criminal and other nefarious activities, plus those of hardware and software errors, pose major challenges that are a priority for further research. Major specific priority issues for research are identified.

W artykule została poruszona problematyka inwestowania w metody zarządzania wiedzą w agrobiznesie. Rozważania zostały oparte na krzywej atrakcyjności (HypeCycle) opracowanej przez specjalistów z firmy Gartner Inc. Dojrzałość
niektórychmetod stwarza warunki do bezpiecznego inwestowania, co jest szansą dla firma grobiznesu do budowania przewagi konkurencyjnej na przyszłym rynku. W artykules ygnalizacyjnie wskazano na potencjalne możliwości inwestowania firm agrobiznesu w konkretne metody i narzędzia zarządzania wiedzą
.

This text is an attempt to understand if, and how, art can exist in the present time. We know we are living an age that is profoundly different from that in which contemporary art was born: an age of acceleration, present shock, distracted gaze and end of the future. And yet, when it comes to art, we still confront it as if nothing had actually changed.
Rather than providing answers, this essay raises questions such as: is it still possible to make art under these conditions, and to experience art as it should? What’s the price we have to pay for engaging today’s media and the crucial issues of our time, in terms of duration and long term appreciation?

This study focuses on the 5-year Protein 3000 Project launched in 2002, the largest biological
project in Japan. The project aimed to overcome Japan’s alleged failure to contribute fully to
the Human Genome Project, by determining 3000 protein structures, 30 percent of the global
target. Despite its achievement of this goal, the project was fiercely criticized in various sectors of
society and was often branded an awkward failure. This article tries to solve the mystery of why
such failure discourse was prevalent. Three explanatory factors are offered: first, because some
goals were excluded during project development, there was a dynamic of failed expectations;
second, structural genomics, while promoting collaboration with the international community,
became an ‘anti-boundary object’, only the absence of which bound heterogeneous domestic
actors; third, there developed an urgent sense of international competition in order to obtain
patents on such structural information.

The development of digital repositories has been a recent one, starting in late 2000 when the UK's University of Southampton released a software package called E-Prints. Since that time, the establishment of digital repositories has gained momentum. Factors such as the falling costs for online storage, the increase of broadband and gigabit networking technologies, as well as the development of metadata standards to describe repository content, have all contributed to their current popularity. Questions to be asked are: to what extent are digital repositories, as a method for communicating scientific and scholarly information, accepted or are they just hype?; how mature are institutional repositories as a technology?; and, to what extent are institutional repositories used by faculty and researchers?
The Gartner Hype Curve is a tool introduced by the Gartner Group in the 1990’s to explain general phenomena of interest in new technologies. This framework plots the typical progression of a technology from its early introduction through its maturation to broad market acceptance. The first question is answered by an investigation into the status of digital repositories in the context of the Gartner Hype Curve. The second question is answered by plotting institutional repositories on the product life cycle (Sigmoid Curve) and the third question is answered by applying the Diffusion of Innovation Theory to institutional repositories.

Quando novas tecnologias fazem promessas ousadas, como distinguir o hype daquilo que é comercialmente viável, e quando é que essas inovações trarão proveitos? O Gartner Hype Cycle oferece uma representação gráfica da maturidade e adoção das tecnologias. Esta metodologia oferece uma perspetiva da evolução da tecnologia, fornecendo diretrizes para a gestão do seu desenvolvimento dentro do contexto de um objetivo de negócio específico.

In den 2000er-Jahren wurde Nanotechnologie im gesamten OECD-Raum zum Gegenstand staatlicher Förderprogramme. Im Politikfeld Nanotechnologie stechen zwei Charakteristika hervor: Erstens der internationale »Hype« um die Nanotechnologie, d. h. ihre durch überschießende Zukunftsversprechen geprägte diskursive Konstruktion, die massive Förderungen rechtfertigt und damit finanzielle, wissenschaftliche und Innovationsdynamiken antreibt. Zweitens fällt im Politikfeld Nanotechnologie die deutliche Präsenz von dialogischen Praktiken und Leitbildern teilnahmeorientierter Demokratie auf. So ist in der Literatur gar von einer »deliberativen« oder »partizipativen Wende« im Nanotechnologiefeld die Rede. In diesem Artikel wird diese Wende kritisch untersucht. Folgende Fragen werden diskutiert: Warum kommt es gerade in diesem Politik-feld zur Häufung partizipativ-dialogischer Praktiken? Und warum manifestiert sich dieser Trend etwa gleichzeitig in verschiedenen Ländern? Schlagworte: Nanotechnologie, Hype, Deliberation, Konvergenz, Wissenschaftskommunikation Franz Seifert: Nanotechnology. Technology Hype and Democratisation Efforts (pp. 153-172) In the 2000s, nanotechnology became the subject of state funding programs across the OECD and beyond. In the nanotechnology policy field, two characteristics stand out: on the one hand, the international »hype« about nanotechnology, that is to say its discursive construction, characterized by excessive future promises and expectations that justify massive funding programs and drive financial, scientific and innovative dynamics. Secondly, specific features of the nanotechnology field are the prominence of dialogical practices and ideals of participatory democracy. The literature even talks about a »deliberative« or »participatory turn« in the nanotechnology field. The article critically examines this turn. The following questions are being discussed: First, why do we observe the proliferation of participative-dialogical practices specifically in this field? Second, why does this trend manifest itself in different countries at about the same time?

Firms are learning they have to meet IT bosses' needs
Until recently, analyst firms such as Gartner and Ovum controlled the complicated triangle between technology users, suppliers and analysts. Now IT directors hold sway. Many analysts have been wounded by their backlash. Only firms that focus on the three Rs responsiveness, relevance and realism — will survive.
By spending less on generic research and more on tailored advice, IT chiefs are forcing analysts to work more responsively. That hurts houses such as IDC, Forrester, Datamonitor, Jupiter, Aberdeen and Hurwitz that have traditionally struggled to give tailored advice to IT directors.
It also forces analysts to be more relevant. Forrester's value leapt earlier this year after it bought Giga, a firm that serves IT directors better. Similarly, Datamonitor recently bought Computerwire and IDC bought Meridien Research.
Consequently, analysts that mainly serve IT suppliers, such as Jupiter and Hurwitz, are disappearing. Many IT directors believe those analysts often just rehash the views of suppliers. In contrast, Gartner grew its consulting revenue by 4% this year by focusing on users' concerns.
Ovum and Giga responded by publishing strict independence charters. IT suppliers must now work much harder to convince tough analysts who view them through critical eyes.
Looking forward, IT directors' demands should also rebalance the US bias displayed by many analyst houses. As they seek to be more relevant to European IT directors, the best firms will aim to differentiate their material from an industry that largely told Europe to copy the US. Having been over-optimistic year after year, the analyst community is also becoming more realistic.
In the long run, everybody should win — the user community will get solid advice, suppliers' claims will be more believable and analysts will offer more value.