Earth system

The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme.

A simulation study of the sea breeze circulation and thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) characteristics has been carried out at the tropical site Kalpakkam on the east coast of India, for operational atmospheric dispersion prediction. The community based PSU/NCAR MM5 Mesoscale meteorological model is used for the study. Three cases on typical days in summer (24 May 2003), southwest (SW) monsoon (1 July 2001) winter season (2 February 2003) with different largescale flow pattern are studied. The MM5 model is used with 3 nested domains with horizontal grid resolutions 18 km, 6 km and 2 km and 26 vertical levels. The model is integrated for 24 hours in the above cases with initial and boundary conditions taken from NCEP-FNL analyses data. Observations of 10 meteorological stations and coastal boundary layer experiments conducted at Kalpakkam are used for comparison and validation of the simulation. The characteristics of simulated sea breeze and TIBL at Kalpakkam are seen to vary in the above cases according to the prevailing large-scale winds and surface fluxes. The sea breeze circulation is seen to develop early with larger strength and inland propagation in the summer case under the influence of moderate synoptic wind and strong heating conditions than in the SW monsoon and winter cases. The horizontal and vertical extents of TIBL are found to be larger in the summer case than in other cases. Although model parameters agree in general with observations, all the fine features are not clearly captured and some slowness in model sea breeze development is also seen. The results indicate the need to improve i) the initial conditions by assimilation of available surface/upper air observations to reduce model bias and ii) surface net radiation parameterisation. The model could predict the essential features of the local circulation and further improvement is expected with better initial condition data and incorporation of more realistic surface data.

Seasonal snow cover is a vital natural resource in the Himalaya. Monitoring of the areal extent of seasonal snow cover is important for both climatological studies as well as hydrological applications. In the present paper, snow cover monitoring was carried out to evaluate the region-wise accumulation and ablation pattern of snow cover in Pir Panjal and Shamshawari ranges of Kashmir valley. The study was carried out for the winter period between November and April of 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07, using multi-temporal WiFS sensor data of IRS-1C/1D satellites. The study shows reduction in the areal extent of seasonal snow cover and rising trend of maximum temperature in three winters for the entire Kashmir valley. This has been validated with 20 years (1988-89 to 2007-08) climatic conditions prevailed in both ranges of Kashmir valley. Region-wise study shows the spatial and temporal variability in seasonal snow cover within Kashmir valley. Advance melting was observed in Banihal and Naugam/Tangdhar regions than Gurez and Machhal regions. Different geographical parameters of these regions were studied to evaluate the influence on snow cover and it was observed that altitude and position of region with respect to mountain range are the deciding factors for retaining the seasonal snow cover for longer duration. Such region-wise study of snow cover monitoring, can provide vital inputs for planning the hydropower projects, development in habitat areas, recreational and strategic planning in the region. . The medium spatial resolution (10-90 m) satellite sensors, e.g., Landsat MSS (80 m) and TM (30 m), Terra ASTER

Thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing of land-surface temperature (LST) provides valuable information about the sub-surface moisture status required for estimating evapotranspiration (ET) and detecting the onset and severity of drought. While empirical indices measuring anomalies in LST and vegetation amount (e.g., as quantified by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) have demonstrated utility in monitoring ET and drought conditions over large areas, they may provide ambiguous results when other factors (e.g., air temperature, advection) are affecting plant functioning. A more physically based interpretation of LST and NDVI and their relationship to sub-surface moisture conditions can be obtained with a surface energy balance model driven by TIR remote sensing. The Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model is a multi-sensor TIR approach to ET mapping, coupling a two-source (soil + canopy) land-surface model with an atmospheric boundary layer model in time-differencing mode to routinely and robustly map daily fluxes at continental scales and 5 to 10-km resolution using thermal band imagery and insolation estimates from geostationary satellites. A related algorithm (DisALEXI) spatially disaggregates ALEXI fluxes down to finer spatial scales using moderate resolution TIR imagery from polar orbiting satellites. An overview of this modeling approach is presented, along with strategies for fusing information from multiple satellite platforms and wavebands to map daily ET down to resolutions on the order of 10 m. The ALEXI/DisALEXI model has potential for global applications by integrating data from multiple geostationary meteorological satellite systems, such as the US Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, the European Meteosat satellites, the Chinese Fen-yung 2B series, and the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellites. Work is underway to further evaluate multi-scale ALEXI implementations over the US, Europe, Africa and other continents with geostationary satellite coverage.

The Mylliem granitoids of the Meghalaya Plateau, northeastern India, represent one of the disharmonic Neoproterozoic igneous plutons, which are intrusive into low-grade Shillong Group of metasediments. Field studies indicate that the Mylliem granitoids cover an area of about 40 km2 and is characterized by development of variable attitude of primary foliations mostly marked along the margin of the pluton. Xenoliths of both Shillong Group of metasediments and mafic rocks have been found to occur within Mylliem granitoids. Structural study of the primary foliation is suggestive of funnel-shaped intrusion of Mylliem granitoids with no appreciable evidence of shearing. Petrographically, Mylliem granitoids are characterized by pink to white phenocrysts of prismatic microcline/perthite and lath-shaped plagioclase (An20–An29). Groundmass material is characterized by quartz, microcline, plagioclase, muscovite and biotite. Sphene and apatite occur as accessory minerals. Petrographically Mylliem granitoids have been discriminated as granite and granodiorite according to IUGS system of classification. Critical evaluation of geochemical data and variation trends of major oxides/trace elements suggests a significant role of fractional crystallization in the evolution of Mylliem pluton. Th/U ratios (3.22–6.77) indicate a relatively higher abundance of Th over U. Chondrite-normalized REE diagram characteristically shows an enriched LREE pattern and prominent negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.16–0.42) indicating the significant role of plagioclase fractionation from the parent magma. An overall strong REE fractionation pattern has been envisaged for Mylliem granitoids. The strong REE fractionation of the Mylliem granitoids is depicted by (Ce/Yb)N values, which show a range of 1.39 to 1.65. The aluminium saturation index (ASI) (ranging from 1.0 to 1.3), A/CNK ratios (ranging from 1.4 to 2.11) and A/NK ratios (ranging from 1.75 to 2.43) provide evidences for the peraluminous, S-type nature of the Mylliem granitoids. The peraluminous, S-type character is further supported by geochemical parameters such as Fe* and MALI (modified alkali lime index). Normative corundum > 1.0 wt.% is suggestive of the S-type nature of Mylliem granitoids. This is indicative of parent melt-extraction from metasedimentary source rocks by partial melting. Distinct geochemical parameters suggest a post-orogenic tectonic environment for the Mylliem granitoids. The peraluminous, calc-alkalic to alkali-calcic, post-orogenic Mylliem granitoids are geochemically correlatable with the post-orogenic Caledonian granitoids of Ireland and Britain.

Streambed temperatures can be easily, accurately and inexpensively measured at many locations. To characterize patterns of groundwater-stream water interaction with a high spatial resolution, we measured 140 vertical streambed temperature profiles along a 220 m section of a small manmade stream. Groundwater temperature at a sufficient depth remains nearly constant while stream water temperatures vary seasonally and diurnally. In summer, streambed temperatures of groundwater discharge zones are relatively colder than downwelling zones of stream water. Assuming vertical flow in the streambed, the observed temperatures are correlated to the magnitude of water fluxes. The water fluxes are then estimated by applying a simple analytical solution of the heat conduction-advection equation to the observed vertical temperature profiles. The calculated water fluxes through the streambed ranged between 455 Lm −2 d −1 of groundwater discharging to the stream and approximately 10 Lm −2 d −1 of stream water entering the streambed. The investigated reach was dominated by groundwater discharge with two distinct high discharge locations accounting for 50% of the total flux on 20% of the reach length.

Current insurer responses to anthropogenic climate change are generally adaptive and weakly mitigative rather than strongly mitigative. In this chapter, we argue successful insurance system adaptation to anthropogenic climate change depends on returning the climate to a stable, familiar and relatively predictable state. Effective mitigation is therefore a necessary precondition for successful longer-term insurance system adaptation to climate change. To make this argument, we highlight important ways the Earth system, the global economy and insurance are all inter-connected.

Two of the most relevant components of any flood forecasting system, namely the rainfall-runoff and flood inundation models, increasingly benefit from the availability of spatially distributed Earth Observation data. With the advent of microwave remote sensing instruments and their all weather capabilities, new opportunities have emerged over the past decade for improved hydrologic and hydraulic model calibration and validation. However, the usefulness of remote sensing observations in coupled hydrologic and hydraulic models still requires further investigations. Radar remote sensing observations are readily available to provide information on flood extent. Moreover, the fusion of radar imagery and high precision digital elevation models allows estimating distributed water levels. With a view to further explore the potential offered by SAR images, this paper investigates the usefulness of remote sensing-derived water stages in a modelling sequence where the outputs of hydrologic models (rainfall-runoff models) serve as boundary condition of flood inundation models. The methodology consists in coupling a simplistic 3-parameter conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a 1-D flood inundation model. Remote sensing observations of flooded areas help to identify and subsequently correct apparent volume errors in the modelling chain. The updating of the soil moisture module of the hydrologic model is based on the comparison of water levels computed by the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model with those estimated using remotely sensed flood extent. The potential of the proposed methodology is illustrated with data collected during a storm event on the Alzette River (Grand-Correspondence to: M. Montanari ([email protected]) Duchy of Luxembourg). The study contributes to assess the value of remote sensing data for evaluating the saturation status of a river basin.

For hydrological modelling studies at the river basin scale, decision makers need guidance in assessing the implications of uncertain data used by modellers as an input to modelling tools. Simulated solute transport through the unsaturated zone is associated with uncertainty due to spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties and derived hydraulic model parameters. In general for modelling studies at the river basin scale spatially available data at various scales must be aggregated to an appropriate scale. Estimating soil properties at unsampled points by means of geostatistical techniques require reliable information on the spatial structure of soil data. In this paper this information is assessed by reviewing current developments in the field of soil physical data uncertainty and adopting a classification system. Then spatial variability and structure is inspected by reviewing experimental work on determining spatial length scales for soil physical (and soil chemical) data. Available literature on spatial length scales for soil physical-and chemical properties is reviewed and their use in facilitating change of spatial support discussed. Uncertainty associated to the derivation of hydraulic properties from soil physical properties in this context is also discussed.

Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, 5 spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct obser-10 vations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE" (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: 15 the first component is a "basin" flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network" module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to 20 allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (Météo France); and (iii) the spatially distributed soil and other surface proper-25 ties viewed from space (land cover map from SPOT or LANDSAT, main rivers, . . . ). The stream flood propagation model simulates flood propagation in main rivers by solving 1D Saint Venant equations. The data required for this part of the model are the river 3398 HESSD 3, 3397-3438, 2006 MARINE distributed model for flash flood modeling V. Estupina-Borrell et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU morphology, topography and roughness. The MARINE model has already been used previously for real time flash floods forecasting in the frame of the PACTES project on "forecasting and anticipation of floods with spatial techniques" (funded by the CNES and the French Ministry of Research) concerning the catastrophic 1999 flash flood that occurred in the South of France. The main advantages of MARINE are its ability to run 5 on insufficiently gauged basins (with the help of satellite information) and to run in an operational mode for real-time flood forecasting. 25 ever, most models are not necessary compatible with real time forecasting requirements. Furthermore, the lack of accurate data characterizing flash floods is probably 3399 HESSD

The paper analyses the prevailing breach mechanisms of fluvial dikes. Piping in the dike foundation and slope failure as a consequence of seepage flow through a dike core (micro-instability) were identified as two of the dominant breach mechanisms for historically-grown dikes along with overtopping and slope macro-instability. For the former two mechanisms the physically-based and empirical process descriptions were reviewed and led to the formulation of the reliability functions. Evaluation of these functions in the Monte Carlo framework for the time dependent load led to the development of fragility functions. These functions indicate the probability of failure of a dike section upon loading and can be computed for each spatially discretised dike section. The probability of breaching is conditioned by the uncertainty in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters. This uncertainty is explicitly taken into account during computation of the fragility functions in a Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to identify the sensitive geotechnical parameters influencing the distribution of failure probability. The identification of sensitive parameters indicates the priorities in geotechnical measurement campaigns aimed at the assessment of dike stability. The newly developed fragility functions can be applied in flood hazard and risk assessment studies for modelling of dike failures in a probabilistic framework.

The objective is to present a reservoir management system which is capable of determining optimal operating rules both for flood event based and normal operation while at the same time attempting to achieve ecologically oriented operation. In order to maintain the variability of the natural flow regime, a new dynamic operating policy is introduced for normal operation. Flood event based operation is managed by a two-part step function. Both operating policies are optimized using a state-of-the-art multi-objective evolution strategy algorithm.

The Samchampi-Samteran alkaline complex occurs as a plug-like pluton within the Precambrian granite gneisses of Mikir Hills, Assam, northeastern India and it is genetically related to Sylhet Traps. The intrusive complex is marked by dominant development of syenite within which ijolitemelteigite suite of rocks is emplaced with an arcuate outcrop pattern. Inliers of alkali pyroxenite and alkali gabbro occur within this ijolite-melteigite suite of rocks. The pluton is also traversed by younger intrusives of nepheline syenite and carbonatite. Development of sporadic, lumpy magnetite ore bodies is also recorded within the pluton. Petrographic details of the constituent lithomembers of the pluton have been presented following standard nomenclatorial rules. Overall pyroxene compositions range from diopside to aegirine augite while alkali feldspars are typically orthoclase and plagioclase in syenite corresponds to oligoclase species. Phase chemistry of nepheline is suggestive of Na-rich alkaline character of the complex. Biotite compositions are typically restricted to a uniform compositional range and they belong to ‘biotite’ field in the relevant classification scheme. Garnets (developed in syenite and melteigite) typically tend to be Ti-rich andradite, which on a closer scan can be further designated as melanites. Opaque minerals mostly correspond to magnetite. Use of Lindsley’s pyroxene thermometric method suggests an equilibration temperature from ∼450°–600°C for melteigite/alkali gabbro and ∼400°C for syenite. Critical assessment of other thermometric methods reveals a temperature of equilibration of ∼700°–1350°C for ijolite-melteigite suite of rocks in contrast to a relatively lower equilibration temperature of ∼600°C for syenite. Geobarometric data based on pyroxene chemistry yield an equilibration pressure of 5.32–7.72 kb for ijolite, melteigite, alkali pyroxenite, alkali gabbro and nepheline syenite. The dominant syenite member of the intrusive plug records a much higher (∼11 kb) equilibration pressure indicating a deeper level of intrusion. Major oxide variations of constituent lithomembers with respect to differentiation index (D.I.) corroborate a normal magmatic differentiation. A prominent role of liquid immiscibility is envisaged from field geological, petrographic and petrochemical evidences. Tectonic discrimination diagrams involving clinopyroxene chemistry strongly suggest within plate alkaline affinity for the parental magma which is in conformity with the regional plume tectonics.

In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000-3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000-2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000-3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000-2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000-2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m 3 s −1 ) is significantly higher than for 4000-3000 BP (244.8 m 3 s −1 ), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m 3 s −1 ) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m 3 s −1 ) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

Peatland carbon and water cycling are tightly coupled, so dynamic modeling of peat accumulation over decades to millennia should account for carbon-water feedbacks. We present initial results from a new simulation model of long-term peat accumulation, evaluated at a well-studied temperate bog in Ontario, Canada.

The study area Mettur forms an important industrial town situated NW of Salem district. The geology of the area is mainly composed of Archean crystalline metamorphic complexes. To identify the major process activated for controlling the groundwater chemistry an attempt has been made by collecting a total of 46 groundwater samples for two different seasons, viz., pre-monsoon and post-monsoon. The groundwater chemistry is dominated by silicate weathering and (Na + Mg) and (Cl + SO 4 ) accounts of about 90% of cations and anions. The contribution of (Ca + Mg) and (Na + K) to total cations and HCO 3 indicates the domination of silicate weathering as major sources for cations. The plot for Na to Cl indicates higher Cl in both seasons, derived from Anthropogenic (human) sources from fertilizer, road salt, human and animal waste, and industrial applications, minor representations of Na also indicates source from weathering of silicate-bearing minerals. The plot for Na/Cl to EC indicates Na released from silicate weathering process which is also supported by higher HCO 3 values in both the seasons. Ion exchange process is also activated in the study area which is indicated by shifting to right in plot for Ca + Mg to SO 4 + HCO 3 . The plot of Na − Cl to Ca + Mg − HCO 3 − SO 4 confirms that Ca, Mg and Na concentrations in groundwater are derived from aquifer materials. Thermodynamic plot indicates that groundwater is in equilibrium with kaolinite, muscovite and chlorite minerals. Saturation index of silicate and carbonate minerals indicate oversaturation during pre-monsoon and undersaturation during post-monsoon, conforming dissolution and dilution process. In general, water chemistry is guided by complex weathering process, ion exchange along with influence of Cl ions from anthropogenic impact. 1966;.

Coastal areas are highly exposed to natural hazards associated with the sea. In all cases where there is historical evidence for devastating tsunamis, as is the case of the southern coasts of the Iberian Peninsula, there is a need for quantitative hazard tsunami assessment to support spatial planning. Also, local authorities must be able to act towards the population protection in a preemptive way, to inform "what to do" and "where to go" and in an alarm, to make people aware of the incoming danger. With this in mind, we investigated the inundation extent, run-up and water depths, of a 1755-like event on the region of Huelva, located on the Spanish southwestern coast, one of the regions that was affected in the past by several high energy events, as proved by historical documents and sedimentological data. Modelling was made with a slightly modified version of the COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model) code. Sensitivity tests were performed for a single source in order to understand the relevance and influence of the source parameters in the inundation extent and the fundamental impact parameters. We show that a 1755-like event will have a dramatic impact in a large area close to Huelva inundating an area between 82 and 92 km 2 and reaching maximum run-up around 5 m. In this sense our results show that small variations on the characteristics of the tsunami source are not too significant for the impact assessment. We show that the maximum flow depth and the maximum run-up increase with the average slip on the source, while the strike of the fault is not a critical factor as Huelva is significantly far away from the potential sources identified up to now. We also show that the maximum flow depth within the inundated area is very dependent on the tidal level, while maximum run-up is less affected, as a consequence of the complex morphology of the area.

The Mylliem granitoids of the Meghalaya Plateau, northeastern India, represent one of the disharmonic Neoproterozoic igneous plutons, which are intrusive into low-grade Shillong Group of metasediments. Field studies indicate that the Mylliem granitoids cover an area of about 40 km 2 and is characterized by development of variable attitude of primary foliations mostly marked along the margin of the pluton. Xenoliths of both Shillong Group of metasediments and mafic rocks have been found to occur within Mylliem granitoids. Structural study of the primary foliation is suggestive of funnel-shaped intrusion of Mylliem granitoids with no appreciable evidence of shearing. Petrographically, Mylliem granitoids are characterized by pink to white phenocrysts of prismatic microcline/perthite and lath-shaped plagioclase (An 20 -An 29 ). Groundmass material is characterized by quartz, microcline, plagioclase, muscovite and biotite. Sphene and apatite occur as accessory minerals. Petrographically Mylliem granitoids have been discriminated as granite and granodiorite according to IUGS system of classification.

The one-dimensional linear advection-diffusion equation is solved analytically by using the Laplace integral transform. The solute transport as well as the flow field is considered to be unsteady, both of independent patterns. The solute dispersion occurs through an inhomogeneous semi-infinite medium. Hence, velocity is considered to be an increasing function of the space variable, linearly interpolated in a finite domain in which solute dispersion behaviour is studied. Dispersion is considered to be proportional to the square of the spatial linear function. Thus, the coefficients of the advection-diffusion equation are functions of both the independent variables, but the expression for each coefficient is considered in degenerate form. These coefficients are reduced into constant coefficients with the help of a new space variable, introduced in our earlier works, and new time variables. The source of the solute is considered to be a stationary uniform point source of pulse type.

Global circulation models (GCMs) depict different pictures for the future of Nile basin flows in general and for the Blue Nile sub-basin in particular. This study analyses the output of 17 GCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report. Downscaled precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) scenarios for the 2081-2098 period 5 were constructed for the upper Blue Nile basin. These were used to drive a fine-scale hydrological model of the Nile Basin to assess their impacts on the flows of the upper Blue Nile at Diem, which accounts for about 60% of the total annual Nile yield. All models showed increases in temperature with annual values ranging from 2 • C to 5 • C. All GCMs also showed increases in total annual PET varying from +2 to +14%.

The calcretes in the Thar desert occur in a variety of settings, including the piedmonts, sheetwash aggraded plains; and this study adds calcretes in regolith and colluvio-alluvial plains to the group of settings in which calcretes occur in the region. Field logs, morphological details and analytical data such as petrographic, cathodoluminescence and geochemical characteristics are described along with a discussion on their implications. Sand dunes and sandy plains dating to < 20 ka have weakly developed calcretes. The better-developed calcrete horizons occur in piedmonts, interdunes or in areas that have sufficient groundwater. Deep sections in the region show phases of calcrete development in aeolian sand aggradation at ∼ 150, ∼ 100, ∼ 60 and 27-14 ka. The extensive sheetwash plains have mature calcretes and date to mid-Pleistocene. Our studies indicate that these calcretes represent a hybrid process, where carbonate enrichment of the originally calcareous host occurred due to periodically raised groundwaters, and its differentiation into nodules occurred under subaerial environment i.e., after recession of groundwater. Deep sections also show a stack of discrete calcretes that developed in individual aggradation episodes with hiatuses as indicated by ESR dating results. Nodules display a multiplicity of carbonate precipitation events and internal reorganization of calcitic groundmass. The process is accompanied by degradation and transformation of unstable minerals, particularly clays and with a neosynthesis of palygorskite.

The paper investigates the ionospheric variations before some large earthquakes that occurred during 2004-2007 in Sumatra using GPS and CHAMP data. The TEC shows the occurrence of positive and negative anomalies detected within a few hours to 6 days before the earthquakes. These anomalies mostly occur during the daytime hours between 4 and 17 LT. The TEC anomalies are mostly consistent with the CHAMP satellite electron density data. The electron density analysis over the 28 March 2005 earthquake epicenter shows that an equatorial anomaly modification took place a few days before the event. The modification took shape in the form of crest amplification during the daytime. The comparison between the TEC and electron density measurements during very quiet geomagnetic conditions is shown to be a useful indicator of a forthcoming earthquake.

Harvesting of clams (Tapes philippinarum) has important socio-economic and environmental implications for the Venice lagoon area, Italy. Clam harvesting disrupts the structure of benthic communities but the effects upon sediment stability and surface structure remain unclear. The effect of clam fishing on the sediment properties of the lagoon bed was investigated at two different sites, a heavily fished site (San Angelo) and an infrequently fished site (San Giaccomo). Both sites were assessed for immediate impacts of fishing, using indicators of biogenic sediment stabilisation. Samples were taken at three points along three 100 m linear transects at each site prior to and post fishing. Paired samples were also taken parallel to each transect at a distance of 5m, to allow for temporal variation. Sediment stability, measured with a cohesive strength meter (CSM), was significantly higher at the less impacted site (F 1,34 = 6.23, p < 0.018), was correlated with indicators of biogenic sediment stabilisation and decreased by approximately 50% following the trawling event. Concomitant decreases in chlorophyll a (chl a), colloidal-S carbohydrate and dry bulk density were observed on the transect after fishing but not adjacent to the fishing path. At the heavily impacted site, clam fishing by trawling had, in general, no significant effect on the biological and physical properties (although chl a did decrease significantly after fishing). The lack of a significant impact from fishing at the impacted site was attributed to the higher frequency of fishing occurring in this area. Hence, frequent fishing of the lagoon prevents establishment of biotic communities, preventing biostabilisation and thus reduces the stability of the surface sediment.

We report here a 40 Ar-39 Ar age of 66.0 ± 0.9 Ma (2σ) for a reversely magnetised tholeiitic lava flow from the Bhimashankar Formation (Fm.), Giravali Ghat, western Deccan province, India. This age is consistent with the view that the 1.8-2 km thick bottom part of the exposed basalt flow sequence in the Western Ghats was extruded very close to 67.4 Ma. JEB127.4b) of a basalt flow from the Bhimashankar Fm., exposed at Giravali Ghat. The studies on whole-rock basalts, Deccan Traps, India: evaluation of the timing of volcanism relative to the K-T boundary; Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 121 43-56 Baksi A K 1999 Reevaluation of plate motion models based on hotspot tracks in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans; J Geol. 107 13-26 Beane J E 1988 Flow stratigraphy, chemical variation and petrogenesis of Deccan flood basalts from the Western Ghats, India; Ph.D. Dissertation, Washington State University, Pullman. Beane J E, Turner C A, Hooper P R, Subbarao K V and Walsh J N 1986 Stratigraphy, composition and form of the Deccan basalts, Western Ghats, Deccan, India; Bull. Volcanol. 48 61-83 Cox K G and Hawkesworth C J 1985 Geochemical stratigraphy of the Deccan Traps at Mahabaleshwar, Western Ghats, India, with implications for open system magmatic processes; J. Petrol. 26 355-377 Courtillot V, Besse J, Vandamme D, Montigny R, Jaeger J J and Capetta H 1986 Deccan flood basalts at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary? Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 80 361-374 Courtillot V, Feraud G, Maluski H, Vandamme D, Moreau M G and Besse J 1988 Deccan flood basalts and the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; Nature 333 842-846 Dalrymple G B, Alexander E C Jr., Lanphere M A and Kraker G P 1981 Irradiation of samples for 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dating using the Geological Survey TRIGA reactor, U. S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap., 1176 55 pp.

In this research, we propose recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to build a relationship between rainfalls and water level patterns of an urban sewerage system based on historical torrential rain/storm events. The RNN allows signals to propagate in both forward and backward directions, which offers the network dynamic memories. Besides, the information at the current time-step with a feedback operation can yield a time-delay unit that provides internal input information at the next time-step to effectively deal with time-varying systems. The RNN is implemented at both gauged and ungauged sites for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-min-ahead water level predictions. The results show that the RNN is capable of learning the nonlinear sewerage system and producing satisfactory predictions at the gauged sites. Concerning the ungauged sites, there are no historical data of water level to support prediction. In order to overcome such problem, a set of synthetic data, generated from a storm water management model (SWMM) under cautious verification process of applicability based on the data from nearby gauging stations, are introduced as the learning target to the training procedure of the RNN and moreover evaluating the performance of the RNN at the ungauged sites. The results demonstrate that the potential role of the SWMM coupled with nearby rainfall and water level information can be of great use in enhancing the capability of the RNN at the ungauged sites. Hence we can conclude that the RNN is an effective and suitable model for successfully predicting the water levels at both gauged and ungauged sites in urban sewerage systems.

Aerosol parameters are measured using a ground-based Multi-wavelength Radiometer (MWR) at Mohal (31.90 • N, 77.11 • E, 1154 m amsl) in the Kullu valley during clear sky days of a seasonal year. The study shows that the values of spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) at 500 nm and theÅngstrom turbidity coefficient 'β' (a measure of columnar loading in atmosphere) are high (0.41 ± 0.03, 0.27 ± 0.01) in summer, moderate (0.30 ± 0.03, 0.15 ± 0.03) in monsoon, low (0.19 ± 0.02, 0.08 ± 0.01) in winter and lowest (0.18 ± 0.01, 0.07 ± 0.01) in autumn, respectively. TheÅngstrom wavelength exponent 'α' (indicator of the fraction of accumulation-mode particles to coarse-mode particles) has an opposite trend having lowest value (0.64 ± 0.06) in summer, low (0.99 ± 0.10) in monsoon, moderate (1.20 ± 0.15) in winter and highest value (1.52 ± 0.03) in autumn. The annual mean value of AOD at 500 nm, 'α' and 'β' are 0.24 ± 0.01, 1.06 ± 0.09 and 0.14 ± 0.01, respectively. The fractional asymmetry factor is more negative in summer due to enhanced tourists' arrival and also in autumn months due to the monthlong International Kullu Dussehra fair. The AOD values given by MWR and satellite-based moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer have good correlation of 0.76, 0.92 and 0.97 on diurnal, monthly and seasonal basis, respectively. The AODs at 500 nm as well as 'β' are found to be highly correlated, while 'α' is found to be strongly anti-correlated with temperature and wind speed suggesting high AODs and turbidity but low concentration of fine particles during hot and windy days. With wind direction, the AOD and 'β' are found to be strongly anti-correlated, while 'α' is strongly correlated.

Within the framework of the SCHEMA FP6 EC co-funded project (<a href="http://www.schemaproject.org" target=_blank>http://www.schemaproject.org</a>), we have identified the sources of errors/uncertainties that can be introduced at several steps of the damage assessment process, from post-disaster field measures up to hazard and damages maps production. Errors, for instance, are introduced when collecting post-disaster observations owing to different types of instruments/methods, water marks considered, tide correction, etc.: in extreme cases, differences of meters can be found between water heights data published by different teams for the same locations. Much uncertainty comes from difficulties in identifying and characterizing the potential tsunami sources and from numerical modelling. Moreover, the resolution of the employed Digital Terrain Models can noticeably affect the predicted inundation extent. We have also verified that the consistency of the computations on the long term varies sensitively depending on the code, raising the problem of results reliability for emergency management in dangerous coasts exposed to repeated waves. In addition, damage assessment is performed using damage functions linking the mean damage level on buildings with the maximum water elevation measured in the field without considering other tsunami parameters such as stream velocity. Finally, we examined uncertainties introduced in hazard and vulnerability mapping due to cartographic processing.

The first thermoluminescence (TL) dates of pottery from a Ramayana associated site are reported. The TL dates for pre-NBPW Black-Slipped Ware levels are 730 and 765 B.C., while radiocarbon date takes the earliest Black Slipped Ware level (for which no TL dates are available) to 905 B.C. (uneorrectedJ. For the OCW level, three TL dates are available which range from 1035 B.C. to 875 B.C. The early NBPW period believed to be associated with the Ramayana episode will thus be post-750 B.C.

First time observations of spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) at Mohal (31.9°N, 77.11°E; altitude 1154 m amsl) in the Kullu valley, located in the northwestern Indian Himalayan region, have been carried out during Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB), as a part of the Indian Space Research Organisation-Geosphere Biosphere Program (ISRO-GBP). AODs at six wavelengths are obtained using Microtops-II Sunphotometer and Ozonometer. The monthly mean values of AOD at 500 nm are found to be 0.27 ± 0.04 and 0.24 ± 0.02 during March and April, 2006 respectively. However, their monthly mean values are 0.33 ± 0.04 at 380 nm and 0.20 ± 0.03 nm at 870 nm during March 2006 and 0.31 ± 0.3 at 380 nm and 0.17 ± 0.2 at 870 nm during April 2006, showing a gradual decrease in AOD with wavelength. The Ångstrom wavelength exponent ‘α’ had a mean value of 0.72 ± 0.05, implying reduced dominance of fine particles. Further, the afternoon AOD values are higher as compared to forenoon values by ∼ 33.0% during March and by ∼ 9.0% during April 2006 and are attributed to the pollutant lifted up from the valley by the evolving boundary layer. Besides the long-range transportation of aerosol particles by airmass from the Great Sahara and the Thar Desert regions to the observing site, the high values of AODs have also been influenced by biomass burning and frequent incidents of forest fire at local levels.

The saturation index of clay minerals like Gibbsite, Kaolinite, Illite, Montmorillonite and Chlorite in groundwater were studied in detail by collecting 29 groundwater samples from the shallow coastal aquifers in and around Kalpakkam. The samples collected were analysed for major cations, anions and trace elements by using standard procedures. The study reveals that pH has a significant role in the saturation index (SI) of minerals. It also shows that the relationship of electrical conductivity to the SI of these minerals is not significant than that of the ionic strength, log pCO 2 values, and alumina silica ratio have significant relation to the SI of these clay minerals. The SI of these clay minerals was spatially distributed to identify the areas of higher SI. Silica has good correlation to SI of Kaolinite, Gibbsite and Montmorillonite and Al has good correlation to SI of all the minerals except to that of Chlorite.

Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE" (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin" flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network" module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (Météo France); and (iii) the spatially distributed soil and other surface properties viewed from space (land cover map from SPOT or LANDSAT, main rivers,. . .). The stream flood propagation model simulates flood propagation in main rivers by solving 1D Saint Venant equations. The data required for this part of the model are the river 3398 HESSD 3, 3397-3438, 2006 MARINE distributed model for flash flood modeling V. Estupina-Borrell et al.

We present Top-kriging, or topological kriging, as a method for estimating streamflow-related variables in ungauged catchments. It takes both the area and the nested nature of catchments into account. The main appeal of the method is that it is a best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) adapted for the case of stream networks without any additional assumptions. The concept is built on the work of Sauquet et al. (2000) and extends it in a number of ways. We test the method for the case of the specific 100-year flood for two Austrian regions. The method provides more plausible and, indeed, more accurate estimates than Ordinary Kriging. For the variable of interest, Top-kriging also provides estimates of the uncertainty. On the main stream the estimated uncertainties are smallest and they gradually increase as one moves towards the headwaters. The method as presented here is able to exploit the information contained in short records by accounting for the uncertainty of each gauge. We suggest that Top-kriging can be used for spatially interpolating a range of streamflow-related variables including mean annual discharge, flood characteristics, low flow characteristics, concentrations, turbidity and stream temperature.

Several new active fault traces were identified along Katrol Hill Fault (KHF). A new fault (named as Bhuj Fault, BF) that extends into the Bhuj Plain was also identified. These fault traces were identified based on satellite photo interpretation and field survey. Trenches were excavated to identify the paleoseismic events, pattern of faulting and the nature of deformation. New active fault traces were recognized about 1 km north of the topographic boundary between the Katrol Hill and the plain area. The fault exposure along the left bank of Khari River with 10 m wide shear zone in the Mesozoic rocks and showing displacement of the overlying Quaternary deposits is indicative of continued tectonic activity along the ancient fault. The E-W trending active fault traces along the KHF in the western part changes to NE-SW or ENE-WSW near Wandhay village.

Sediment trap samples collected from a depth of 1018 m in the Central Arabian Sea Trap (CAST) at 14 • 28.2 N, 64 • 35.8 E were analyzed for temporal variation of coccolithophore fluxes from October 1993 to August 1994. Out of the twenty species of coccolithophores encountered, Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Emiliania huxleyi, Umbilicosphaera sibogae and Umbellosphaera irregularis were the most abundant. The total coccolithophore fluxes ranged from 28.5 × 10 6 m −2 d −1 to 50.3 × 10 6 m −2 d −1 showing seasonality with higher fluxes during the northeast (NE) monsoon and lower fluxes during the spring intermonsoon. The higher fluxes were attributed to the enhancement of primary production in the central Arabian Sea due to southward extent of nutrients from the northeast Arabian Sea by the prevailing surface currents. Similarly, the occurrences of relatively lower coccolithophore fluxes during the spring intermonsoon and southwest (SW) monsoon were attributed to the low nutrients in the warm, shallow surface mixed layer and downwelling to the south of Findlater Jet respectively in the central Arabian Sea. Some of the coccolithophore species such as E. huxleyi, G. oceanica, Calcidiscus leptoporus and Umbellosphaera tenuis showed signs of dissolution.

The political pressure on the scientific community to provide medium to long term flood forecasts has increased in the light of recent flooding events in Europe. Such demands can be met by a system consisting of three different model components (weather forecast, rainfall runoff forecast and flood inundation forecast) which are all liable to considerable uncertainty in the input, output and model parameters. Thus, an understanding of cascaded uncertainties is a necessary requirement to provide robust predictions. In this paper, 10-day ahead rainfall forecasts, consisting of one deterministic, one control and 50 ensemble forecasts, are fed into a rainfallrunoff model (LisFlood) for which parameter uncertainty is represented by six different parameter sets identified through a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) analysis and functional hydrograph classification. The runoff of these 52 * 6 realisations form the input to a flood inundation model (LisFlood-FP) which acknowledges uncertainty by utilising ten different sets of roughness coefficients identified using the same GLUE methodology. Likelihood measures for each parameter set computed on historical data are used to give uncertain predictions of flow hydrographs as well as spatial inundation extent. This analysis demonstrates that a full uncertainty analysis of such an integrated system is limited mainly by computer power as well as by how well the rainfall predictions represent potential future conditions. However, these restrictions may be overcome or lessened in the future and this paper establishes a computationally feasible methodological approach to the uncertainty cascade problem.

For hydrological modelling studies at the river basin scale, decision makers need guidance in assessing the implications of uncertain data used by modellers as an input to modelling tools. Simulated solute transport through the unsaturated zone is associated with uncertainty due to spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties and derived 5 hydraulic model parameters. In general for modelling studies at the river basin scale spatially available data at various scales must be aggregated to an appropriate scale. Estimating soil properties at unsampled points by means of geostatistical techniques require reliable information on the spatial structure of soil data. In this paper this information is assessed by reviewing current developments in the field of soil physical data 10 uncertainty and adopting a classification system. Then spatial variability and structure is inspected by reviewing experimental work on determining spatial length scales for soil physical (and soil chemical) data. Available literature on spatial length scales for soil physical-and chemical properties is reviewed and their use in facilitating change of spatial support discussed. Uncertainty associated to the derivation of hydraulic prop-15 erties from soil physical properties in this context is also discussed. 10

This study describes time series analysis of snow-melt, radiation data and energy balance for a seasonal snow cover at Dhundi field station of SASE, which lies in Pir Panjal range of the N-W Himalaya, for a winter season from 13 January to 12 April 2005. The analysis shows that mean snow surface temperature remains very close to the melting temperature of snow. It was found close to −1 • C for the complete observational period which makes the snow pack at Dhundi moist from its beginning. The average air temperature over this period was found to be 3.5 • C with hourly average variation from −5.5 • C to 13 • C. The snow surface at this station received a mean short wave radiation of 430 W m −2 , out of which 298 W m −2 was reflected back by the snow surface with mean albedo value of 0.70. The high average temperature and more absorption of solar radiation resulted in higher thermal state of the snowpack which was further responsible for faster and higher densification of the snowpack. Net radiation energy was the major component of surface energy budget with a mean value of 83 W m −2 . Bulk transfer model was used to calculate turbulent fluxes. The net energy was utilized for satisfying cold content and snow-melt by using measured snow surface temperature and density of snow pack. The mean square error between calculated and measured daily snow-melt was found to be approximately 6.6 mm of water equivalent. reduces the strength of snow layers significantly and poses the wet snow avalanche hazard. The net

Integrating community-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) is identified at the policy and practical level as critical to aid effectiveness. Successful integration reduces both duplication of efforts and confusion at the community level, thus contributing to sustainable development. The challenges of integrating DRR and CCA are widely discussed from the global to the local level among policymakers, practitioners and academics alike. However, to date, little progress has been made in achieving practical solutions. By focusing on the governance aspects of DRR and CCA integration in the Pacific (with a particular focus on Fiji and Samoa), this study highlights potential pathways to overcome the separation of these two dynamic and overlapping fields. In applying the Earth System Governance framework as a novel analytical tool, we reveal that the issues of agency and architecture are especially significant as challenges to effectively integrating DRR and CCA.

Chuaria circularis (Walcott 1899) from the Suket Shale of the Vindhyan Supergroup (central India) has been reinvestigated for its morphology and chemical composition using biostatistics, electron microscopy and pyrolysis-gas chromatography. Morphology and microscopic investigations provide little clues on the specific biological affinity of Chuaria as numerous preservational artifacts seem to be incorporated. On the contrary, the predominance of n-aliphatic pyrolysates of presently studied Chuaria from India rather supports an algal affinity. Moreover, the reflectance of C. circularis can be used to obtain a comparative maturity parameter of the Precambrian sediments. The review of the age and geographical distribution of C. circularis constrains that this species cannot be considered as an index fossil for the Proterozoic time.

Spatial patterns as well as temporal dynamics of soil moisture have a major influence on runoff generation. The investigation of these dynamics and patterns can thus yield valuable information on hydrological processes, especially in data scarce or previously ungauged catchments. The combination of spatially scarce but temporally high resolu-

S Naseema Beegum et al lower (∼1) over the Arabian Sea compared to Bay of Bengal (BoB) (∼1.4) as revealed by the data respectively from Minicoy and Port Blair. Occurrences of higher values of α, showing dominance of accumulation mode aerosols, over BoB are associated well with the advection, above the boundary layer, of fine particles from the east Asian region during March and April. The change in the airmass to marine in May results in a rapid decrease in α over the BoB.

In May of 2007, a study was initiated by the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa, India, to investigate the influence of monsoonal rainfall on hydrographic conditions in the Mandovi River of India. The study was undertaken at a location ∼2 km upstream of the mouth of this estuary. During the premonsoon (PreM) in May, when circulation in the estuary was dominated by tidal activity, phytoplankton communities in the high saline (35-37 psu) waters at the study site were largely made up of the coastal neritic species Fragilaria oceanica, Ditylum brightwellii and Trichodesmium erythraeum. During the later part of the intermonsoon (InterM) phase, an abrupt decline in salinity led to a surge in phytoplankton biomass (Chlorophyll a ∼14 mg m −3), of a population that was dominated by Thalassiosira eccentricus. As the southwest monsoon (SWM) progressed and the estuary freshened salinity and Chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations decreased during the MoN, Skeletonema costatum established itself as the dominant form. Despite the low biomass (Chl a <2 mg m −3), the phytoplankton community of the MoN was the most diverse of the entire study. During the postmonsoon (PostM), the increase in salinity was marked by a surge in dinoflagellate populations comprising of Ceratium furca, Akashiwo sanguinea, and Pyrophacus horologium.

Realistic simulation/prediction of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall on various space-time scales is a challenging scientific task. Compared to mid-latitudes, a proportional skill improvement in the prediction of monsoon rainfall in the medium range has not happened in recent years. Global models and data assimilation techniques are being improved for monsoon/tropics. However, multimodel ensemble (MME) forecasting is gaining popularity, as it has the potential to provide more information for practical forecasting in terms of making a consensus forecast and handling model uncertainties. As major centers are exchanging model output in near real-time, MME is a viable inexpensive way of enhancing the forecasting skill and information content. During monsoon 2008, on an experimental basis, an MME forecasting of large-scale monsoon precipitation in the medium range was carried out in real-time at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India. Simple ensemble mean (EMN) giving equal weight to member models, biascorrected ensemble mean (BCEMn) and MME forecast, where different weights are given to member models, are the products of the algorithm tested here. In general, the aforementioned products from the multi-model ensemble forecast system have a higher skill than individual model forecasts. The skill score for the Indian domain and other sub-regions indicates that the BCEMn produces the best result, compared to EMN and MME. Giving weights to different models to obtain an MME product helps to improve individual member models only marginally. It is noted that for higher rainfall values, the skill of the global model rainfall forecast decreases rapidly beyond day-3, and hence for day-4 and day-5, the MME products could not bring much improvement over member models. However, up to day-3, the MME products were always better than individual member models.