Causal Loop Diagram

Social enterprises are non-profit organizations that seek to achieve social goals through commercial activity. Because they have both social and commercial objectives, social enterprises are confronted with high levels of complexity in their strategizing and operations; not only do they have to generate sufficient revenue to re-invest in their business operations, they also have to maintain investment in social projects in their community. Under conditions of resource scarcity, this poses severe challenges which can threaten the long-term sustainability of the enterprise. In this paper the tension between allocating resources to commercial activity and social action is explored. A simple causal-loop diagram is constructed which maps out the relationships between resource allocation and a number of other variables thought to influence the sustainability of social enterprises. By tracing through the diagram, a range of generic strategic alternatives available to social enterprises is evaluated and discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding the context and problems of a manufacturing enterprise (ME) and its internal dynamics, primarily through modeling by its processes, operations, and activities. This paper attempts to provide indeepth understanding of the structure and internal mechanisms of ME that shape the overall dynamic behavior through system dynamics modeling. In this paper, we discuss the system dynamics model in detail and present the insights gained from running simulations. Before adopting a new policy, this model may be used to investigate alternative policy possibilities pertaining to decisions and can be used to forecast system behaviour and acquire insights using solid engineering and scientific concepts and approaches. The paper describes major influences in ME from a system perspective, problems inherent in production systems made clear because the modeling of causal loops introduce cross-departmental issues and promote process Integration. This model guides managers through a continuous improvement process relative to addressing physical, policy or paradigm constraints in their production system.

Objective – The aim of the article is to present the development of a simulation framework which identifies Malaysia Pension Fund main sources as well as the financial activities.
Methodology/Technique – Numerous factors influencing the financial condition pension fund is summarized. Based on the set of system factors in literature summarization, causal loop diagram is used to analyse the inter-relationships among these factors.
Findings – Causal loop diagram shows a relationship between these factors, which can be used in analysing financial condition of a pension fund. In the developed causal loop diagram, it shows the main sources of Malaysia pension fund, the asset allocation, and the future benefit payment.
Novelty – The causal loop diagram will then, be used as a dynamic hypothesis of this study and serves as a basis for quantitative models.

Within river basins different social, economic, political and physical subsystems interact. When making decisions, policy makers should be aware of such interactions as any new policy will affect more than one subsystem. To determine the adequacy of a specific management policy, an integrated study is needed of a complicated water management system in the basin considering major physical, social, economic and political aspects. The Zayandeh-Rud river basin, in central Iran with a semi-arid climate and large agricultural, industrial and domestic water uses, is an example of a complicated watershed system where the lack of complete knowledge about all the interacting subsystems has led to failure of the policy makers in addressing the water shortage in the basin. Although water shortages occur fairly soon after completion of each new water source, transbasin water diversion is still the major policy of water planners to address ongoing shortages. System dynamics provides a unique framework for integrating the disparate physical, socio-economic and political systems important to watershed management. This approach is used to comprehend the interactions of different drivers of the problem and to convey the experiences, lessons learned, and perceptions gained during the model development process. A simulation model, built based on causal loop diagrams of the problem, shows that transbasin diversion is not the best and only solution to the problem. The results of the model for different scenarios suggest that various options of demand management and population control can be more effective in addressing the water crisis of the basin when combined with transbasin water diversions, increasing water storage capacity and controlling of groundwater withdrawal.

Production pressure is often cited as an underlying contributory factor of organizational accidents. The relationship, however, between production and safety protection is complex and has not been adequately addressed by current theories regarding organizational accident. In addressing this gap, this paper uses the methodology of system dynamics to develop a causal model to address the dynamic interaction between management of production and protection, which can accumulate in an organizational accident. A case study of a fatal rock fall accident in Tasmania, Australia was conducted based on the developed model and is used to uncover the intricate dynamics linking production pressure, risk tolerability, perception of safety margin, and protection efforts. In particular, the study demonstrates how a strong production focus can trigger a vicious cycle of deteriorating risk perception and how increased protection effort can, ironically, lead to deterioration of protection.

Urbanization coupled with the lack of space has led to soil sealing and encroachment upon stream corridors in many cities the world over. This has caused not just the degradation of the riparian ecosystem, but has also increased the frequency and intensity of flash flooding. India is one of the countries worst affected by urban floods. To manage flood risk, especially in the case of rain-fed urban streams, not just the government but also the public needs to be engaged in the management of the stream corridor. In this context of flood risk management, the resilience concept is increasingly being applied. It revisits some fundamental notions conventionally associated with viewing and managing floods, beginning by acknowledging that floods are natural and unavoidable, and resilience, not stability is the desirable quality. This research aims to study how governance attributes like public participation can enhance flood resilience. To this end, relevant literature on resilience and governance has been studied followed by a study of the events surrounding the flooding of the Ramnadi stream corridor in Pune city through policy analysis, data derived from documents and maps, and through semistructured interviews with stakeholders like locals, experts, activists and civic authorities. Categorization and meaning interpretation of relevant data has enabled an analysis of the governance structure for the Ramnadi corridor using a causal loop diagram. The nodes, linkages and feedback loops in this diagram have been studied to understand how public participation affects resilience characteristics. Findings of this investigation along with draft recommendations for specific actors were presented to stakeholders in a validation workshop. Implications of the results on the theories of flood resilience, governance and public participation have been examined which has enabled their analytic generalization. General policy recommendations have been based on this. Subsequently, recommendations which promote systems approach based public participation and systems thinking in the governance of social-ecological systems have been made.

Specific methodologies that consider a more comprehensive/diverse set of parameters must be explored by the LCA community. This study utilises the Group Model-Building (GMB) method to identify, and Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) technique to make explicit, variables which are not typically considered in LCA studies, but may have significant influence upon environmental impacts through causeeeffect links and feedback loops in product systems. A literature review on LCAs concerning household washing machines and conventional passenger cars product systems is performed to investigate what are the commonly used functional unit, life cycle stages and system boundaries. Two parallel GMB sessions were organised to elicit relevant variables and relations in the product systems and build in a first version of CLDs. Individual interviews with the participants were undertaken to refine and validate the system models. Final versions of the system models were built. GMB and CLD can serve as a basis for (i) delimitating appropriated system boundaries for LCA and (ii) identifying variables/areas to be included in sensitivity and scenario analysis. Sensitivity and scenario analysis examine the influence that those variables/areas have on the environmental impacts of the product and describe both different contexts and profiles of users. GMB and CLD have the potential to bridge the divide between quantitative and qualitative variables, for more robust understanding of the causes and mechanisms of environmental impacts and improving conclusions and recommendations in LCA.

This paper puts forward a multi-level model, based on system dynamics methodology, to understand the impact of cyber crime on the financial sector. Consistent with recent findings, our results show that strong dynamic relationships, amongst tangible and intangible factors, affect cyber crime cost and occur at different levels of society and value network. Specifically, shifts in financial companies’ strategic priorities, having the protection of customer trust and loyalty as a key objective, together with considerations related to market positioning vis-à-vis competitors are important factors in determining the cost of cyber crime. Most of these costs are not driven by the number of cyber crime incidents experienced by financial companies but rather by the way financial companies choose to go about in protecting their business interests and market positioning in the presence of cyber crime. Financial companies’ strategic behaviour as response to cyber crime, especially in regard to over-spending on defence measures and chronic under-reporting, has also an important consequence at overall sector and society levels, potentially driving the cost of cyber crime even further upwards. Unwanted consequences, such as weak policing, weak international frameworks for tackling cyber attacks and increases in the jurisdictional arbitrage opportunities for cyber criminals can all increase the cost of cyber crime, while inhibiting integrated and effective measures to address the problem.

To better grasp the interconnected range of socioeconomic impacts from the implementation of rural roads in northern Ethiopia, we have experimented with Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs), a tool commonly used in systems dynamics, but generally under-used in development research. The expansion of the rural road network in Africa is praised for reducing spatial isolation, lowering transport cost, increasing access to markets, and bringing services closer to home. However, different segments of society will benefit differently from the establishment of a rural road. This difference may lead to dynamics that either exacerbate or reduce existing inequities, which forms the central question for this paper. As part of a broader study on the multiple (in)direct effects of rural roads on productive employment, we undertook oral testimonies in four municipalities to explore how people perceive road impacts on livelihoods, mobility, and work. CLDs were then used to assemble those seemingly loose observations into a systematized view of the whole. The exercise reveals conflicting feedback processes that may dominate system at different times and drive the inequities between surplus food producers and laborer households up or down. The method used can be particularly useful for studying similar infrastructures that seemingly bring benefits to all, but may cause subtle, concealed or delayed effects, and ultimately surprising system behavior.

Tourism is a type of inter-organisational system with global and local properties. Problems are defined softly and phenomena are uncertain. There are demands for fast and integrated decisions for guest satisfaction as service users and tourism organisations as service providers. There are many different methodologies and methods that master softly structured problems. Here one encounters methods of systems dynamics and systems thinking. These tools were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. System dynamics models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. Attention will be paid to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model, which is the basis of causal connections among model variables. Thus, a connection between qualitative and quantitative models will be restored.

The National Guard of each state operates a Regional Training Institute (RTI) that teach different courses to National Guard, Reserve, and Active Duty soldiers as part of the One Army School System (OASS). Although they are designed to handle a large number of students, RTIs are typically small units comprised mainly of part-time personnel who drill just one weekend each month. Due to their unique structure and reporting requirements, the complexity of problems encountered by RTIs often threatens to overwhelm the staff’s analytical ability to solve them. The good news is that the RTIs can use systems thinking (Kauffman, 1980) to gain an understanding of the complexity that surrounds them, and often to find the leverage necessary to generate the outcomes desired.

Access to all public websites is crucial to assuring equal opportunities for all citizens to participate in society. Several studies have been carried out to analyse the accessibility of websites. However, we have not been able to find any studies on the factors (other than technical) affecting website accessibility. The purpose of this paper is therefore to explore different factors prior to the web page development that may have an influence on the accessibility of municipal websites in Norway. This is achieved through reviewing relevant literature and performing a set of in-depth interviews with web-masters and web-editors from various Norwegian municipalities. The findings from these sources were compiled into a Causal Loop Diagram. Several leverage points to enhance public websites accessibility were discovered by ex ploring the Causal Loop Diagram:

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on all levels of society, including people with disabilities, who in the pre-pandemic period faced obstacles in various sectors of life that affected efforts to fulfill basic living needs due to difficulties in accessing employment. Objective: The objective of this study was to identify various factors and causal interaction patterns that affect the inclusiveness of workers with disabilities in pandemic situations, a dynamic system is needed to capture causal interaction patterns related to the inclusiveness of workers with disabilities in pandemic situations. Method: This study used a causal loop diagram approach, which is part of a dynamic system that begins with determining the interaction of causal variables. The process of identifying and extracting data was carried out through a literature review and in-depth interviews with informants who met the principles of appropriateness and adequacy criteria. Result: The interaction pattern between the factors that influence the inclusiveness of disabled workers was depicted in three causal loop diagrams covering three major domains, namely social, educational, and economic aspects. The three causal loop diagrams showed an increasingly dynamic interaction pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic, considering that workers with disabilities have greater vulnerability, which impacts their level of acceptance and inclusiveness at work. Recommendation: There needs to be a specific policy to expand the acceptance of workers with disabilities by strengthening cross-sectoral collaboration and company commitments. The existence of a policy that prioritizes education, increases the budget, and procures adequate infrastructure for people with disabilities is a government commitment that is demanded to be fulfilled during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Standard OR/MS methods mainly focus on 'hard' aspects of problems represented by quantitative or mathematical formulations. Organisational settings typically pose challenges in the use of such methods, in that they may be inadequate to capture the 'softer' issues surrounding human behaviours, organisational practices and policies. Over the last 20 years, a number of 'soft OR' tools, methods and methodologies have emerged as a means of addressing such challenges, and in this paper, we selectively examine how such methodologies can complement hard and other soft methods. In particular, we examine the potential contribution of the theory of constraints (TOC) and system dynamics (SD) to multi-methodological intervention. We begin by discussing their philosophical underpinnings in relation to other OR/MS methods, and by exploring how such an understanding can provide a theoretical basis for mixing methodologies and for their complementary use. Then, using a case suitable for classroom discussion, the paper provides insights into how the systemic qualities of selected TOC methods and tools may be harnessed in multi-methodological intervention by identifying the communality and complementarity of TOC and other hard and soft OR/MS approaches to problem solving, in particular, the causal loop diagramming method of SD.

Iceland is facing severe land degradation in many parts of the country. This study aims to increase the understanding of the complex interactions and interconnectivity between the critical factors that help maintain the land degradation processes in sub-arctic environments. A holistic approach in the form of a causal loop diagram (CLD) is applied for diagnosing the influencing factors. To further study the relationship between vegetation cover and its degradation, a dynamic model that uses a long-term temperature data as the main indicator function is constructed to simulate potential vegetation cover during the Holocene. The results depict an oscillating vegetation cover. Gradual degradation in potential vegetation cover begins ca. 3000 BP and accelerates greatly after ca. 2500 BP. From the time of the Norse settlement in the latter halve of the 9th century to present time, the simulated vegetation cover retreats ca. 25% in relation to climatic cooling.

Specific methodologies that consider a more comprehensive/diverse set of parameters must be explored by the LCA community. This study utilises the Group Model-Building (GMB) method to identify, and Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) technique to make explicit, variables which are not typically considered in LCA studies, but may have significant influence upon environmental impacts through causeeeffect links and feedback loops in product systems. A literature review on LCAs concerning household washing machines and conventional passenger cars product systems is performed to investigate what are the commonly used functional unit, life cycle stages and system boundaries. Two parallel GMB sessions were organised to elicit relevant variables and relations in the product systems and build in a first version of CLDs. Individual interviews with the participants were undertaken to refine and validate the system models. Final versions of the system models were built. GMB and CLD can serve as a basis for (i) delimitating appropriated system boundaries for LCA and (ii) identifying variables/areas to be included in sensitivity and scenario analysis. Sensitivity and scenario analysis examine the influence that those variables/areas have on the environmental impacts of the product and describe both different contexts and profiles of users. GMB and CLD have the potential to bridge the divide between quantitative and qualitative variables, for more robust understanding of the causes and mechanisms of environmental impacts and improving conclusions and recommendations in LCA.

Increasing the efficiency of the healthcare system in the United States is an important subject due to rapidly rising costs. Among many propositions to improve the operation of the system, adoption of Electronic Health Records is widely discussed. This study uses a system dynamics methodology to develop a simulation model of the adoption process that will allow for the exploration of policies. This paper presents the development and the preliminary findings of this model.

Tourism is a type of inter-organisational system with global and local properties. Problems are defined softly and phenomena are uncertain. There are demands for fast and integrated decisions for guest satisfaction as service users and tourism organisations as service providers. There are many different methodologies and methods that master softly structured problems. Here one encounters methods of systems dynamics and systems thinking. These tools were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. System dynamics models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. Attention will be paid to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model, which is the basis of causal connections among model variables. Thus, a connection between qualitative and quantitative models will be restored.

Background: System dynamics (SD) modelling can inform policy decisions under Thailand's Universal Health Coverage. We report on this thinking approach to Thailand's strategic health workforce planning for the next 20 years (2018-2037). Methods: A series of group model building (GMB) sessions involving 110 participants from multi-sectors of Thailand's health systems was conducted in 2017 and 2018. We facilitated policymakers, administrators, practitioners and other stakeholders to co-create a causal loop diagram (CLD) representing a shared understanding of why the health work-force's demands and supplies in Thailand were mismatched. A stock and flow diagram (SFD) was also co-created for testing the consequences of policy options by simulation modelling. Results: The simulation modelling found hospital utilisation created a vicious cycle of constantly increasing demands for hospital care and a constant shortage of healthcare providers. Moreover, hospital care was not designed for effectively dealing with the future demands of ageing populations and prevalent chronic illness. Hence, shifting emphasis to professions that can provide primary care, intermediate care, long-term care, palliative care, and end-of-life care can be more effective. Conclusions: Our SD modelling confirmed that shifting the care models to address the changing health demands can be a high-leverage policy of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term.

Production pressure is often cited as an underlying contributory factor of organizational accidents. The relationship, however, between production and safety protection is complex and has not been adequately addressed by current theories regarding organizational accident. In addressing this gap, this paper uses the methodology of system dynamics to develop a causal model to address the dynamic interaction between management of production and protection, which can accumulate in an organizational accident. A case study of a fatal rock fall accident in Tasmania, Australia was conducted based on the developed model and is used to uncover the intricate dynamics linking production pressure, risk tolerability, perception of safety margin, and protection efforts. In particular, the study demonstrates how a strong production focus can trigger a vicious cycle of deteriorating risk perception and how increased protection effort can, ironically, lead to deterioration of protection.

Biogas has been developed in Indonesia for years, especially in rural area. There are plenty of biogas project implemented to smallholders in many rural area in Indonesia by government, private sector, and Non Governmental Organization (NGO). Even though, many of the biogas project failed. Some references argued that the development (adopting and diffusing) of technology in renewable energy such as biogas, particularly in rural area depend on various factors, such as social, technical, economic, and institutional factors, but not many consider financing as an important factor in determining the success level of biogas project. The development of biogas project in rural area can be accelerated by providing appropriate financial incentives, subsidies and strengthening supporting infrastructures to ensure reliability, quality and efficiency of biogas project. However, financing issue in biogas project in Indonesia rural area is not been widely explored. This paper aims to analyze some options for biogas financing in Indonesia rural area and review its advantage and disadvantage, especially in Lembang, West Java using causal loop diagram (CLD). Causal loop diagram is a useful tool to capture the complex structure of biogas project, in order to better understand the role of financing for biogas project. Data and information in this research is gathered through field observation and a set of interviews to farmers who use biogas energy in Lembang area, West Java, and the local government, a cooperative, and NGO who involved in the biogas project.