Introduction: Great Power Politics

Great Power Politics in Greater Eurasia Great Power Politics in Greater Eurasia Regional Alliances, Institutions, Projects, and Conflicts Edited by Rahman Dağ and Özgür Tüfekçi LEXINGTON BOOKS Lanham • Boulder • New York • London Published by Lexington Books An imprint of The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc. 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706 www.rowman.com 86-90 Paul Street, London EC2A 4NE Copyright © 2023 by The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote passages in a review. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data ISBN 978-1-66691-411-5 (cloth : alk. Paper) ISBN 978-1-66691-412-2 (electronic) The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992. Contents Introduction: Great Power Politics Rahman Dağ and Özgür Tüfekçi 1 PART I: GREAT POWER POLITICS VIA CONFLICTS 1 2 3 Power Politics over Syrian Crisis: A New Battleground Among Global, Regional and Sub-National Powers Rahman Dağ and Özgür Tüfekçi 21 Causes and Prospects of The Georgia South-Ossetia Conflict: Applying the ARIA Framework Javadbay Khalilzade 37 Balancing in Central Asia: Russia-China Relations at the Region’s Level in Realist Perspective Ioan-David Onel 57 PART II: GREAT POWER POLITICS VIA INSTITUTIONAL/ REGIONAL ALLIANCES 4 Challenges and Prospects for Future of the EU Relations in Central Asia: The Special Case of Kazakhstan Ana Belén Perianes 83 5 CSTO & EAEU and the Path to a New Eurasia: Return or Retreat? 103 Ana Isabel Xavier 6 UK’s Post Brexit Strategy “Global Britain”: A Quest of being Great Power Emrah Atar and Hamdullah Baycar v 119 vi Contents PART III: GREAT POWER POLITICS VIA PROJECTS 7 The Geopolitical View of The European Union and China’s The Belt and Road Initiative Tianyi Liu and Giuseppe Bettoni 143 8 The Renewal of Dashed Turkish Hopes in Central Asia Gülşen Şeker Aydın 157 9 A Century-Long Great Power Politics over the Nile River Basin Mohammed Hashiru and Özgür Tüfekçi 181 10 Great Power Rivalry in Central Asia: New Strategy, Old Game Adrian Pogacian 201 Conclusion Rahman Dağ and Özgür Tüfekçi 217 Index 225 About the Contributors 217 Introduction Great Power Politics By Rahman Dağ and Özgür Tüfekçi The common understanding that the power center flows from the West to the East is a popular subject in academia. Even if it is true and has an academic and intellectual background, it is evident that this process could not suddenly occur, but it will take a great deal of time and struggle over significant geographies, institutions, natural resources, and ideas (Gilpin, 1981; Wohlforth, 1999: 32; Posen, 2009; Schweller and Pu, 2011). It may not be possible to set an exact date for this power flow, but it continues for sure. In this regard, power transition theory makes sense by arguing that one’s relative power downgrading could lead to another’s power upgrading (Chan, 2007; Lai, 2011; Pop and Brînză, 2017). “The character of these respective changes contradicts power transition theory, which claims that the dominant power, as a status quo power, will seek to actively maintain the status quo, and the rising power, as a revisionist power, will challenge the existing system” (Zhou, 2019: 3). In this core assumption, there has to be a certain and limited power in a total of the world, and this power is distributed among the nations in the world. However, in case the idea that the nations are able to create more power and surpass the others is considered correct, then rising powers’ appetite for getting more space in their sphere of influence and also more say in world politics, especially in the issues that directly influence their national interests. In other words, the observed decline in hegemonic or superpower inclines rising powers to challenge the embedded international system (Volgy and Imwalle, 1995: 827; Schweller and Pu, 2011: 42). These theoretical assumptions do not have to reject progressive developments of all nations but are mostly about which nation would grow much faster and get ahead of others and, finally, which nation is adequately powerful to keep its prominent position prolonging. 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London and New York: Routledge. About the Contributors Rahman Dağ obtained his BA from Istanbul Yeditepe University. And then, he got a master’s degree from the Department of Near and Middle Eastern Studies, SOAS (School of Orient and African Studies) in London. He was awarded the Philosophy of Doctorate from Exeter University, Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies in the field of Middle East Politics. In addition, he is one of the founding members of CESRAN International (www.cesran.org) and acting as the Deputy Director of Cesran International. His affiliation with Cesran continues as book review editor of the Rest: Journal of Politics and Development (The Rest Journal). After finishing his higher education, He got appointed as a research assistant in 2014 and was promoted to assistant professorship at Adıyaman University within a month. He worked for the University for more than six years. Once he was awarded an associate professorship by the Higher Education Council in Turkey, he got a promotion by working as associate professor at Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University. His expertise revolves around Middle East politics specializing in the Kurdish question and Turkish foreign policy. His latest interest is in great power politics and accommodation of rising or regional powers in the world politics and international system Özgür Tüfekçi is an associate professor of international relations at Karadeniz Technical University in Turkey. He is also the founder and directorgeneral of CESRAN International, a UK-based think tank (www.cesran.org). He holds a master’s degree in international studies from the University of Sheffield and a PhD in sociology and international relations from Coventry University. His primary research interests are (Turkish) Eurasianism, nationbuilding, theories of nationalism, geopolitical studies, rising powers, and regionalism. He published a monograph titled The Foreign Policy of Modern 227 228 About the Contributors Turkey: Power and the Ideology of Eurasianism (2017) and co-edited Domestic and Regional Uncertainties in the New Turkey (2017), Eurasian Politics and Society: Issues and Challenges (2017), Politics of Conflict and Cooperation in Eurasia (2018), and Trends and Transformations in World Politics (2022). He is also the editor in chief of The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development. Emrah Atar holds his PhD in development policy and management at Global Development Institute at The University of Manchester, which focuses on the impact of the refugee crisis on public service delivery in hosting countries such as Turkey. Emrah worked as a senior tutor at Manchester University and is currently working as a lecturer at Recep Tayyip Erdogan University. His focus topics and research interests further escalate his prospects on politics, governance, migration, policy development, human resource management, and urbanization policies. Emrah is an assistant executive editor of the Political Reflection Magazine and commissioning editor of the E-International Relations. He can be at [email protected]. Gülşen Şeker Aydın has worked at the Department of International Relations of Ataturk University as an assistant professor since 2010 and lectures on the theories of international relations, international political economy, and the Caucasus and Central Asia. She received her BS (2001), MSc (2004), and PhD (2010) degrees from the International Relations Department of Middle East Technical University, Turkey. Her current research interest includes the theories of international relations (IR), international political economy, international organizations, post-Soviet economic and political change, Eurasian integration, and Turkish foreign policy. Hamdullah Baycar is a PhD candidate at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter. His research focuses on the identity politics of the Gulf. Orientalism, colonialism, and post-colonialism are among the topics he is focusing on in his PhD. Before joining Exeter, he was a graduate student in the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard University (2017). He holds a BA in international relations from Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey (2013). Giuseppe Bettoni is a professor of geography in the Department of History, Humanities and Society at the University of Rome Tor Vergata. He focuses his research on internal and external geopolitical conflicts, as defined by Yves Lacoste. The areas of research in terms of external geopolitics are the area known as the Near East, North Africa and Sahel. After several experiences About the Contributors 229 of research on the ground in Lebanon and Syria and research work carried out with other colleagues from several universities, studies have resulted in issues of territorial control and identity representation. In matters of internal geopolitics, Giuseppe Bettoni, particularly in Italian and European fields, has a direct experience of more than twenty-five years. Thus is an expert on the question of conflict in land use planning, identity building, antagonisms concerning governance models. On all these subjects, Giuseppe Bettoni is still today a regular guest on the sets of several important radio and television stations, both French and Italian. Mohammed Hashiru was born in Nsawam, a small town in the Eastern Region of Ghana. His first degree was in theological studies at the Islamic University of Ghana. He has a master’s degree in philosophy of religion and another in Middle East studies, both from Sakarya University. He is currently a PhD student in international relations at Karadeniz Technical University. His main research interest is African politics, religion and politics, foreign policy and the Middle East. Javadbay Khalilzade is a PhD candidate and teaching assistant at the Department of Political Science, Kent State University, Ohio, USA. He completed his MA degree at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Istanbul 29 Mayis University, Turkey, in 2016. Prior to beginning his doctoral program in the USA, he worked at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Istanbul Şehir University, throughout the 2015– 2018 period. Khalilzade’s main research areas are authoritarian politics, state violence, interstate conflict analysis, politics of Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey, and the Post-Soviet Caucasus. Tianyi Liu, PhD, is a cultural heritage, education and territory student at the University of Rome Tor Vergata, in Rome, Italy. His research focuses on the geopolitical view of Italy and China’s The Belt and Road Initiative. Currently, he is studying geopolitical events along the Silk Road that could have a long-term impact on government policy. Clarify the geographical category and connotation of the Maritime Silk Road. He is an enthusiastic, adaptive, and fast-learning person with a broad and acute interest in the discovery of new innovative research. He particularly enjoys collaborating with scientists from different disciplines to develop new skills and solve new challenges. Ioan-David Onel is a PhD candidate in the field of political sciences, at the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration (SNSPA), in Bucharest, Romania. He graduated from the “Security and Diplomacy” 230 About the Contributors MA programme at the Department of International Relations and European Integration and the BA at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the same University. His fields of academic interest include the regional dynamics in Central Asia and the Western influence in the region and the competition between the great powers. Ana Belén Perianes is a Spanish political scientist. She holds a PhD in peace and international security and a University specialized degree in Mediterranean, Near and Middle Eastern Security. The title of her doctoral dissertation was: “The George W. Bush Administration’s Foreign Policy (2001–2008): Consequences for the International Security.” Her main research interests are E.U. security and defense; EU-Central Asia relations and the Belt and Road Initiative; U.S. foreign policy; the transatlantic link; women, peace and security; Sahel; human security; human rights and democratic governance. At present, she works as a postdoctoral researcher on peace, security and defense affairs and professor at The University Institute General Gutierrez MelladoUNED in Madrid. Adrian Pogacian is a RIAC (Russian International Affairs Council) expert. He is a PhD in History and PhD candidate at MGIMO University and holds an MA degree in politics and economics in Eurasia from the same institute. He is interested in Great Powers rivalry, Russian foreign policy, and fear in international politics, being a defender of realism in international relations. He launched ReThinking Europe, a regional non-profit, non-partisan and independent think tank based in Tîrgu-Mureş, Romania. ReThinking Europe’s work focuses on the following topics: European politics and health security. Ana Isabel Xavier is an associate professor at the Autonomous University of Lisbon (UAL). Integrated researcher and deputy director of OBSERVARE— Observatory of External Relations, where she is the main coordinator, and executive manager of the project “The Country That We Are, The World (S) That We Have: A Route Towards the Strategic Concept for The Next Decade,” funded by the Ministry of National Defense (2020–2021). She is a Visiting Professor in the History Department at ISCTE and an associate researcher at the Centre for International Studies (CEI-IUL) and at CISDIUM—Centre for Research in Security and Defense at the Military University Institute. She holds a PhD in International Relations from the Faculty of Economics, the University of Coimbra (specializing in European Studies), with a thesis entitled “The European Union and Human Security: an actor in crisis management in search of a strategic culture? Prospective analysis” (2011). About the Contributors 231 She has a Master in Sociology of Development and Social Transformation (2006) and a degree in international relations (2003) from the same faculty. She has a post-graduate degree (2005) in human rights and democratisation from the University of Coimbra Law School.