Illegal Migration and Terrorism

The General Jonas Žemaitis The General Military Academy Jonas Žemaitis of Lithuania Military Academy of Lithuania University of Salford A Greater Manchester University University of Salford A Greater Manchester University Ministry of National Defence Ministry Republic of Lithuania of National Defence Republic of Lithuania Energy Security NATO Energy Center Security Centre of Excellence World Institute for Engineering and Technology Education Vilnius Gediminas Technical University journal of Security and Sustainability Issues www.lka.lt/index.php/lt/217049/ jOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES 2011 1(1) 2029-7025 online ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2016 June Volume 5 Number 4 http://dx.doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2016.5.4(1) ILLEGAL MIGRATION AND TERRORISM józsef Kis-Benedek National University of Public Service, Ludovika tér 2, H-1083 Budapest, Hungary E-mail: [email protected] Received 12 December 2015; accepted 15 February 2016 Abstract. The connection between illegal migration and terrorism is in the focal point of security dilemmas since the beginning of the flow of migration and since the terrorist attacks in Paris in particular. The basic question is whether the terrorist organizations are able and will embed terrorists among the migrants. The essay makes a comparison between the American and European handling of refugees emphasizing the effectiveness of the American refugee’s processes. The author refers the challenges of the security services facing the Islamic State. Keywords: illegal migration, terrorism, intelligence, security, screening of refugees, Islamic State. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Kis-Benedek, J. 2016. Illegal migration and terrorism, Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues 5(4): 455–464. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2016.5.4(1) JEL Classifications: 011 1. Introduction The Paris attacks are transforming Europe’s migration crisis into a security debate, spurring calls for a clampdown on free movement across borders, and putting proponents of an open door for refugees on the defensive. France’s firm belief that Islamic State militants planned the attacks – and the possibility that at least one assailant may have posed as a Syrian refugee – are fueling arguments over whether Europe is doing enough to protect itself from terrorists who might infiltrate the thousands of migrants arriving daily from the Middle East and elsewhere. Evidence that some of the attackers crossed internal European Union boundaries to get to Paris have also brought more demands from EU-skeptic politicians to abolish the continent’s system of open borders. To proponents of European integration, the attacks highlight the need for more EU cooperation on security and better joint protection of the EU’s external frontier. The wave of migration to Europe in 2015 raises the connection between terrorism and illegal migration. There are plenty of arguments pro and contra. „In December 2015, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees announced that 2015 saw record-breaking levels of forced migration; over 60 million individuals were pushed from their homes. Syrian refugees, in images of capsized boats and dead children on the shores of JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online Greece, have captured the world’s attention, bringing media coverage to the plight of forced migrants. But the reality is that the world is paying attention to only one subset of the issue: cross-border refugees. The plight of internally displaced people has gone less noticed, simply because these migrants do not land on our shores” (Mitchneck, Beth 2016). I would like to emphasis at the beginning of this essay that the direct connection between terrorism and migration is a strategic mistake. Neither the refugees nor the better life seeking are terrorists. The refugees look for protection against persecution often perpetrated by terrorists. However it should be taken into consideration that the terrorist organizations can use the illegal migration to send operatives to the target countries. The today’s terrorist organizations seek for finding assailants in the Western countries having citizenship, with no connection to religious organization, possibly without file by security services and having a „normal” daily life. In many European countries they can find people like this. (Besenyő, János 2015) The experiences of the London, Madrid and other attacks have shown this assertion. But the risk that Islamic State or other terrorist organizations could smuggle militants into Europe under cover of a huge wave of migrants is much smaller than some politicians suggest. Islamic State has no need to export fighters to Europe because it imports fighters from Europe. There are five to six thousand Europeans who are, or have been, in Syria, and others are living there all the time. So it’s hard to see the advantage for Islamic State to export Syrian or Iraqis, people who speak Arabic, who know Iraq and Syria, and who they need over there. (http://www.euractiv.com 2015) It is a very cumbersome and plenty of risks to come into the European Union. There is a lot of easier ways to slip in. There is another reason why Islamic State needn’t care about smuggling people into Europe: there is no shortage of ’lone wolf’ militants already in place. From Brussels and Paris to Copenhagen, deadly attacks have been committed since last year by people living in Europe and able to travel freely across continent due to the Schengen borders. There is no need for them to send people right now, but this may well change over time. „The activity of the Islamic State is facilitated by a rather good propaganda. The effective use of social media has brought to the ISIS efficient results and accomplishments, especially in recruiting youth worldwide. Social media has helped the ISIS disseminate their views and stories across societies around the globe” (Shamieh, Luna – Szenes, Zoltán 2015). 2. The Paris attacks The brutal terrorist attack in France on November 13 opened a debate over accepting refugees from Syria and the Middle East. A Syrian who applied for asylum could have been of the attackers, although his passport was forged. Later the French authorities discovered another suspected person as well. All identified attackers have been French or Belgian nationals. The attacks revealed the extent to which the situation in Syria, the immigration crisis in Europe and international terrorism are interconnected. (https://www.stratfor.com 2015) The repercussions of the attacks will be similarly far-reaching not only in the fight against terrorism, but other fields as well. Let see some examples: – Governors and presidential candidates in the USA have voiced opposition to accepting any Syrian refugees. – The Paris attack will serously challenge the continuity of the Schengen Agreement. France has re-established border-controls, as have Sweden, Germany and Slovenia. Hungary built a fence to protect its border (Schengen external border) with Serbia and Croatia. In November 2015 Slovenia and Macedonia started to build fence on the border. – Closing off Europe’s external borders without finding a home for the migrants could lead to seriously problems in the Balkans, where migrants will be stranded. As several thousand men and women become involuntary migrants to countries with high unemployment and ethnic tensions, the region’s already fragile political and social structures will experience significant strain in the next few month. Of course it depends on whether the European countries will be able to find a common solution to the migrant crisis. 456 JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online – The rising of terrorism and migration could accelerate the rise of nationalist parties across Europe. – The rise of Euroskepticism will be felt elsewhere in Europe. In Germany, under pressure of conservative forces, Chancellor Angela Merkel has already changed policy to toughen regulation of asylum. – The Paris attack and the growing terrorist threat in Europe will make it hard for the European Commission to defend its plan to relocate refugees across the Continent. The plan is already in serious trouble, only a few hundred of the 120,000 refugees have actually been relocated. Poland said it will opt out from the plan, and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe will probably follow suit. Brussels will be too weak to introduce sanctions against the countries that choose not to participate in the plan. – The European Union and Turkey try to enhance the cooperation to prevent asylum seekers from entering Europe. If somebody could do effective steps against the flow of migrants to Europe, this is Turkey. The Turkish government basically made three requests: money, visa liberalization for Turkish citizens and a no-fly zone in northern Syria. After the Paris attacks, Brussels will probably offer more flexible visa conditions and other concession for Turkish citizens and the Turkish state. – The migration and the growing terrorism in Europe will accelerate some processes that were underway in Europe, such as resistance to migration and criticism of the Schengen Agreement. 3. Differences between European and American refugee’s admission There is a huge difference between the European and American refugee’s admission system. Unfortunately the EU countries made a big mistake in 2015 in letting enter thousands of illegal migrants without control to Europe. The defense of external Schengen borders is the task of the country respective but very few countries had taken this regulation seriously. It is very hard to check the refugees after entering the country. A basic difference between the European and American practice is that the European first let enter the foreigners and thereafter try to check them. The American method is to check first and let them enter after a comprehensive control. In defense of the European method I have to mention the huge number of refugees arriving in mass to the border or mainly to the „green border”. The authorities often were not able to stop them. They refused the registration because they wanted to be registered in Germany or later in Sweden. Many of them showed no passport or other paper for identification. In many cases they refused taking photo or fingerprints as well. Terrorist organizations certainly have realized and profited this great possibility to send theirs people to Europe. I am convinced that actually nobody can say in Europe the exact number of terrorist or would-be terrorists. The uncontrolled flow of refugees carries another threat as well: those who cannot be integrated to the societies can be later radicalized and from the radicalization is the terrorism not far away. I am convinced that the book of Samuel P. Huntington on the Clash of civilization (the book was written 20 years ago) is very actual in 2016 as well. „The religious revival has in part involved expansion by some religions, which gained new recruits in societes where they had previously not had them. To a much larger extent, however, the religious resurgence involved people returning to, reinvigorating and giving new meaning to the traditional religions of their communities” (Huntington, Samuel P. 1997). It is worth seeing the American method of admitting refuges and connection between terrorism and refugees. From the 859,629 refugees admitted in the USA from 2001 onwards, only three have been convicted of planning terrorist attacks on targets outside of the United States and none was successfully carried out (Nowrasteh, Alex 2015). That is one terrorism-planning conviction for every 286, 543 refugees that have been admitted. To put that in perspective about one in every 22,541 Americans committed murder in 2014. The terrorist threat from Syrian refugees in the United States is over-exaggerated and they have very little to fear from them because the refugee vetting system is so thorough. There are many differences between Europe’s vetting of asylum seekers from Syria and how the United States screens refugees. The geographic distance between the United States and Syria allows the US government to better control the migrants, while large numbers of Syrian who try to go to Europe are less carefully checked. 457 JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online It is important to make differences between refugees and asylum seekers. The asylum seekers show up at national borders and ask to stay. They must show they have a well- founded fear of persecution due to their race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or their political opinion if they return to their country of origin. There is an application and investigation process, and governments often detain the asylum seeker during that process. But the investigation and vetting of the asylum seeker often take place place while he is allowed inside the country. Many of the Syrians and others who have entered Europe are asylum seekers who are vetted through similar, less stringent security screens, but due to the huge number of refugees and the unpreparedness of the authorities it happened many times that unregistered, unknown people from different crisis areas moved across countries. In the US a refugee is somebody who is identified by the United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in a refugee camp. In the United States UNHCR does the first round of security checks on the refugee according to international treaties to which the United States is a party, and refers some of those who pass the initial checks to the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP). The referrals are then interviewed by a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) officer abroad. The refugee must be outside of the United States, be of special humanitarian concern to the government, demonstrate persecution due to race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group, and must not be firmly resettled in another country. Refugees are processed from a great distance away and more thoroughly vetted than asylum seekers as a result. Because the refugee is abroad while the U.S. government checks their background, potential terrorist links, and their claims to refugee status, the vetting is a lot more thorough and can take up to two years for non-Syrians. For Syrians, the vetting can take about three years because of the heightened concerns over security. Asylum seekers, on the other hand face rigorous checks, but they are conducted while the asylum seeker is inside the United States and not always while he is in a detention center. Syrian fleeing violence that come the United States will be refugees, whereas many getting into Europe are asylum seekers. This distinction shows very well that the United States is in a far better security situation vis-a-vis Europe on any potential terrorist threat from Syria. The distinction between asylum seekers and refugees is usually lost when discussing the security treat from refugees. 4. The process of the refugee’s screening in the USA The first step for a refugee is to arrive and register in an UNHCR refugee camp outside of Syria. The UNHCR then refers those who pass the first stage of vetting to the U.S. government refugee process. The National Counterterrorism Center, the Terrorist Screening Center, the Department of Defense, the FBI, Department of Homeland Security and the State Department use biometrics and biographical information collected through several interviews of the refugee and third party persons who know him or could know him to evaluate their security risk and to investigate whether they are suspected of criminal activity or terrorism. Numerous medical checks are also performed. During this entire screening process, which takes about three years for Syrians, the refugee has to wait in the camp. If there is any evidence that the refugee is a security threat he or she is not allowed to go to the United States. Refugee security screening goes beyond weeding out actual terrorists but also seek to identify those who provided material support to them. Remarkable are the figures: in 2015, the United States has accepted only 1,682 Syrian refugees, which is 0.042 percent of the 4,045,650 registered Syrian refugees. (Refugee Processing Center 2015) Only one out of every 2,405 Syrian refugees in a camp was resettled in the United States in 2015. If the United States still takes in 10,000 Syrian refugees in 2016, and the number of refugees rises to 4.5 million, a mere 0.22 percent of them–one out of every 450 will be resettled in the United States. That number is still so small and the process so well monitored that potential terrorists are unlikely to see the refugee system as a viable way to enter the United States. The US refugee process is so long, so thorough, that it is probably the least efficient way for a potential terrorist to enter the US. In the 14 years since September 11, 2001, the United 458 JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online States has resettled 784,000 refugees from around the world, according to data from the Migration Policy Institute, a D.C. think tank. And within that population, three people have been arrested for activities related to terrorism. None of them were close to executing an attack inside the U.S. and two of the men were caught trying to leave the country to join terrorist groups overseas (Berman, Russell 2015). As we have seen the vetting of refugees before entering a country needs time and is not easy at all, but not impossible. After entering a country the checking of refugees is highly difficult. This is the case in Europe. In Europe not only the refugees are considered as a security threat but those who have travelled to crisis areas mainly to Syria and Iraq and entered to the ranks of ISIS or other terrorist organization. Theirs return to Europe means a serious security threat. It is not by chance that France after the Paris attacks made a proposal to the EU to screen every single EU passport holders entering to continent for the first time to catch fighters returning from the Middle East. Europol admitted that only 2,000 of the estimated 5,000 extremist who have travelled to Syria and Iraq to make jihad have been logged on an EU-vide intelligence sharing database used by Britain to disrupt plots. It means Britain has no way of checking the background of 3,000 suspected terrorists, even if their own country has identified them as a threat. One French official said the EU’s borders were „like a sieve”. (Holehouse, Matthew 2015) Another proposal after the Paris attacks is that every single migrant is checked against a terror watch list, after French authorities revealed that Abdelhamid Abaaoud and another terrorist were able to return from Syria via the migrant route of Greece, intensifying fears that terrorists are able easily to exploit the refugee crisis to get to Europe. According to Bernard Cazeneuve, the French interior minister, French intelligence was unaware Abaaoud was in the country until after the massacre, and said other states had provided no intelligence on his whereabouts. At present, only non-EU passport holders are meant to have SIS checks (SIS = Schengen Information System). EU passport holders only undergo a cursory visual passport inspection, to respect their “freedom of movement”. Up to six of the eight Paris attackers fought in Syria, and Abaaoud had boasted to an ISIL magazine of how police failed to catch him as he moved several times between Belgium and Syria, with border guards failing to recognize his face as a wanted man. (Holehouse, Matthew 2015). We cannot forget if the terrorist is not in the database, it is hard to identify the person. According Rob Wainwright, the director of Europol and a former intelligence officer in MI5: the majority of the data is supplied by just a handful of states. It is a fact that the majority of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks is not refugees and have European passport. Some were born and raised in France and Belgium before being radicalized. According to The Telegraph as few as one in 100 wanted terrorists carrying European passports were being checked against the EU’s anti-terrorism watch list in some countries. Just 10-20 per cent of EU citizens have their passports checked against a database designed to catch foreign fighters returning from Syria and Iraq. This means that ‚home-grown jihadists’ are able to travel freely from Syria to Europe. (Richards, Victoria 2015) An operative working for Islamic State has revealed the terror group has successfully smuggled thousands of covert jihadists into Europe. The Syrian operative claimed more than 4,000 covert ISIS gunmen had been smuggled into western nations – hidden amongst innocent refugees. He revealed the ongoing clandestine operation is a complete success. (Brown, Aron 2015) I think this as a clear propaganda of the IS but who can verify it? We cannot forget the lessons of 9/11conserning migration and terrorism. (Martin, Susan 2015) – Many of the hijackers received visas to enter the US as tourists or students so they could present valid and original travel document during border crossing. The computerized „look-out” system did not flag them as terrorists. – Even if the look-out system had identified them as a terrorist, the hijackers may have been able to enter the US illegally via Canada or Mexico. The vast majorities who enter illegally over the Mexican border are job seeker and pose no security threat, but the same vulnerabilities that permit large-scale unauthorized migration could be exploited by terrorist to enter the US. I think the situation in Europe is a little similar. – The US does not track the movement of foreigners once they have entered. – There are significant differences among countries in the treatment of immigration inside US (and in Europe as well). 459 JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online 5. Challenges facing the Intelligence Community One of the roots of the illegal migration is the Islamic State, but I would like to emphasize not the only. The causes of migration are wider. The Islamic State (IS) is much more than a terrorist organization; it is a guerilla organization with state ambitions by using mainly terrorist methods. Over the last four years, since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, the Islamic State developed from an extremist fringe and marginal faction participating in the civil war to become the strongest, most ferocious, and best funded and best armed militia in the religious and ethnic war that is waged today in Syria and Iraq. (Neriah, Jacques 2014) Many expert even Islamic stated that this organization is not Islamic at all and not a state. The Middle East influenced by the conception of Sykes-Picot began to disintegrate. The Islamic State does not seem like a passing phenomenon. The structures being established indicate that even if the actual leaders of the IS are killed, the system has created a succession procedure that will allow them to survive, just like al-Qaeda survived the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Killing the leadership of the IS is not the best method because there are many replacement and the organization is embedded in the Sunni population. Uprooting the IS phenomenon will be a long and arduous road. Without creating a chasm between the IS and the local population, and without reaching a long and lasting political solution that will put an end to Sunni-Shiite rivalries in Iraq and to the conflict in Syria, the chances of success will remain negligible. The success of the Islamic State in conquering large parts of Syria and Iraq (as big as the UK) demonstrates the fragile nature of the countries in the Middle East and the volatility of the security problems in the region. The Islamic State is a relative newcomer to the Middle East terror and Islamic extremist groups that arose over the past 50 years. Its forerunner was ‘al Qaeda in Iraq’ (AQI), a group formed in 2006 by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. AQI was so violent and extreme that Osama bin Laden dissociated al Qaeda from AQI. At the same time, Iraqi Sunni tribes formed the Awakening Movement (Sahwa) to combat AQI. Zarqawi was killed later in 2006 by an U.S. air strike. AQI was weakened by the Sahwa and did not resurface as a significant force until 2011 when the group, now under the name Islamic State of Iraq, joined the fighting in the Syrian civil war. The change of name (ISIS/ISIL) and leadership with al-Baghdadi did not diminish the group’s propensity for extreme violence. ISIS originally affiliated with Jabhat al Nusra, a group associated with al Qaeda, but soon split to display a willingness to fight any and all in the Syrian conflict. (Henley Putnam University, 2015) The Islamic State is a major threat to both rebel and loyalist forces in Syria. Having long devoted the majority of their fighters and efforts to battles against each other, rebel groups and his regime of Assad are becoming increasingly aware that they cannot afford to let the Islamic State take advantage of the country’s internal conflict to assault and seize weakly held territory. This is particularly true as the group converges on important populated areas such as Aleppo or even Homs and Damascus, where it previously had no substantial presence. Though the Islamic State certainly faces some critical threats of its own, including rebel and coalition efforts to cut off its supply lines through Turkey the group is still able to maintain its force in a number of areas. Each new base, town or supply depot that it secures only boosts its foothold in Syria’s civil war, which in turn translates into gains across the border in Iraq. The Syrian government and disparate rebel forces must now dedicate more of their attention to the Islamic State threat as it becomes an increasingly important factor in their battle plans and objectives. Concerning the future it is probable that: (https://www.stratfor.com 2015) – „The Islamic State will prioritize the defense of its core supply lines, used to provide equipment and muchneeded recruits. – The Islamic State will continue to demonstrate considerable flexibility in its offensive operations. – The Syrian government and rebel forces will have to increasingly devote their attention and resources to fighting the Islamic State, rather than prioritizing battles with each other”. Members of the Islamic State are planning to carry out major terror attacks against targets not only in the Middle East but in the United States or in Europe as well. There is evidence that the organization is running sleeper 460 JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online cells around the world, outside of Iraq and Syria. The goal: to gain a greater foothold in the Islamic world – politically and militarily. (Dvorin, Tova 2014) The intelligence community has since discovered that IS is working to recruit foreign fighters to carry out terror attacks abroad, an alarming fact revealed by a former member of al Qaeda. In addition, many people were recently arrested in Europe over IS connections, which could be considered as a proof for the recruitment. Taking into consideration that IS is more formidable than al Qaeda, (IS is) better equipped, they’re better manned, they’re better resourced, they’re better fighters, they’re better trained than the al Qaeda in Iraq that our forces faced. It is a global expansionist, global jihadist organization it is swollen with foreign fighters and suicide bombers who will go wherever the organization tells them to go. The real threat presented by the Islamic State is to the West itself, thanks to the vast and unprecedented numbers of Westerners who have joined the jihad in Iraq and Syria. Parallel whit this the Islamic extremism is growing not only in the Middle East but in Europe as well. According to the evaluation of experts „Islamic extremism is the belief that traditional Islamic values must be universally adopted to defeat the encroachment of Western influence and return to the purest form of Islam. Radical Islamists perceive that Western cultural and economic influences, the sponsorship of pro-Western Muslim governments, the creation of the state of Israel, and the dilution of traditional Islamic law (Sharia) are all violation of the Koranic scriptures by illegitimate Muslims who have abdicated their responsibility to maintain the values of the faith and the people”. (Maras, Marie-Helen 2013) European security services are already overwhelmed by the size and scope of this threat, with hundreds of European jihadists returning home every month, fresh from battle on behalf of the Islamic State, and ready to cause mayhem and recruit others for the jihad. E.g. in France, the number of its citizens waging jihad in Syria and Iraq, mostly on behalf of the Islamic State, is without precedent. While earlier jihadist campaigns in Bosnia in the 1990s or in Iraq a decade ago, for instance, attracted a few dozen French nationals apiece, the current wars in the Middle East have involved nearly a thousand French citizens – 942 in Syria over the last two years, according to French intelligence, which tracks the involvement of these fighters as best it can. Paris believes that about 350 French citizens are waging jihad in Iraq and Syria at present, and French security services are simply overwhelmed by the number of extremists – known jihadists, would-be jihadists, plus returning jihadists – they need to track. (http://20committee.com 2015) Marc Trévidic, a counterterrorism magistrate with long experience in dealing with jihadists, known for his frank talk about terrorism, portraying French intelligence, police, and courts as “disarmed” in the face of a new and more dangerous domestic extremism scene that is now directly tied to Syria and Iraq, as well as the Islamic State. His recent words to the media paint a disturbing portrait: “Everything is different these days! Before, would-be jihadist had a smattering of instruction. There is no religious background now; it is the image that wins them over. The appeal is to their feelings, not to their intellect. The explosion is due to the Internet. The youngsters we have to deal with are overexcited, not intellectually radicalized… The profiles are completely disparate. Some are impossible to check out. Never before have we come up against women and minors! Before long, the only age group missing will be the very old… We can no longer sift them or monitor them as before to find out what their intentions are. We are forced to arrest them as soon as they set foot in the country. We need to know what they have been through. On the whole, they have been through horrendous experiences. We lack the evidence needed to probe them properly. However, some of them are potentially dangerous, all the more so in that they are forced into waging an individual jihad in the attempt to escape detection”. (Sengès, Gilles 2015). The possible radicalisation of refugees is the problem of the near future. „The term ‘radicalisation’ is used widely, but a consensus on its definition and drivers has yet to be achieved and past research has proved of little explanatory value. Following the terrorist attacks in Madrid (2004) and London (2005), politicians and policy-makers began to use the term ‘radicalisation’ or ‘violent radicalisation’ to describe the attitudes and/ or behaviours of predominantly young individuals who subscribe to extreme violent beliefs”. (Dawson, Laura – Edwards, Charlie – Jeffray, Calum 2014) Concerning the future researches the radicalisation and the fight against radicalisation will be an important topic. 461 JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online The real threat presented by the Islamic State is to the West itself, thanks to the vast and unprecedented numbers of Westerners who have joined the jihad in Iraq and Syria. European security services are already overwhelmed by the size and scope of this threat, with hundreds of European jihadists returning home every month, fresh from battle on behalf of the Islamic State, and ready to cause mayhem and recruit others for the jihad. German security authorities estimate that 450 radical German Muslims have traveled in the direction of Syria. (Weinthal, Benjamin 2015) An official from Germany’s intelligence told that it is difficult to track radical German Islamists leaving Germany for Syria because they do not need a visa to first land in Turkey. The southern Turkey border has been the principal point of entry into Syria for jihadists seeking to fight Assad’s regime and create a caliphate state. Roughly 150-200 radical German Islamists have returned from Syria and are currently in Germany. The Federal Republic outlawed Islamic State activities. The Lebanese political militia Hezbollah has legal status for its socalled political wing in Germany. It is unclear if the German authorities view the 150 radical jihadists as terrorists who returned to the Federal Republic. The information from monitored ISIS conversations, also known as Islamic State, revealed that the terrorists cannot use airports on their way to Europe because of the strict control. Members of the Islamic State are planning to carry out major terror attacks against targets not only in the Middle East, but in the United States or in Europe. There is evidence that the organization is running a sleeper cells around the world, outside of Iraq and Syria. The goal is: to gain a greater foothold in the Islamic world – politically and militarily. (Dvorin, Tova 2014) The intelligence community has since discovered that IS is working to recruit foreign fighters to carry out terror attacks abroad, an alarming fact revealed by a former member of Al Qaeda. In addition, many people were recently arrested in Europe over IS connections, which could be considered as a proof for the recruitment. With the growing of the territories under the IS there is another tendency as well. The split of Iraq is a reality. To prove this statement I would like to refer on a declaration of a group of old Sheikhs and community leader from Alan bar (living and operating under ISIS controlled areas) published a statement with following principals: (Aljazeera 2015). 1. These leaders and their tribes and communities have given their allegiance to ISIS leader and recognize him as the leader of IS under which they live. 2. They call for all tribes and communities who fled Alanbar to come back home with guarantees of safety and to live with dignity instead of being under Iranian government control who has mistreated the Sunni refugees in the most in-humane manner. 3. They are calling for Sunnis everywhere to come back home and help in rebuilding IS their new nation free of Iranian influenced government. 4. They do not recognize any Sheikh that is not on the ground or who is not going back to Alanbar to be part of this new nation. 5. They vow to fight Iranian backed government and coalition forces that are supporting this Iranian backed Militia and Hashid. 6. They do not recognize Iraqi army or security forces as national because they are under the control of Iranian military relationship. The appearance and the function of the Islamic State show very clearly that the decision of the US administration to dismantle the former Iraqi armed forces during the Iraq war was a strategic mistake. 462 JOURNAL OF SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ISSN 2029-7017 print/ISSN 2029-7025 online Conclusions It is too early to assess and make a clear statement to what extent the illegal migration has been connected to terrorism. After Paris attacks the connection has been proved. But it is a mistake to make equal- mark between them. The EU countries made a fault in allowing the refugees flow without checking people. Finding the right balance between security and liberty is never easy. Prevention, prosecution and protection must be the cornerstones of any new immigration policies adopted to fight terrorism. More specifically, immigration policies and procedures should seek to identify, deter the entry of, and, to the extent possible, apprehend terrorists for criminal prosecution, in keeping with internationally recognized standards for protection of liberties and civil rights. Immigration policy reforms cannot in and of themselves prevent terrorism, but they are a key part of any comprehensive approach to combat terrorism. The activities of the Western national security services are important but not enough in finding the terrorism and preventing illegal migration. References Aljazeera (Arabic) TV channel, 3 June 2015. Berman, Russell: Can Terrorists Really Infiltrate the Syrian Refugee Program? Available on the Internet http://www.theatlantic.com/ politics/archive/2015/11/can-terrorists-really-infiltrate-the-syrian-refugee-program/416475/ (last visited 29.11.2015. 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Richards, Victoria: Paris attacks: Eight terror suspects named so far are not refugees and have EU passports. Several of the suspects lived in the Brussels neighbourhood of Molenbeek. Available on the Internet http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/paris-attacksthe-eight-terror-suspects-named-so-far-all-have-eu-passports-a6738821.html (last visited 29.11.2015.) Sengès, Gilles: La justice désarmée face aux menaces des nouveaux djihadistes. Available on the Internet http://www.lopinion.fr/3septembre-2014/justice-desarmee-face-aux-menaces-nouveaux-djihadistes-15939 (last visited 17.05.2015.) Shamieh, Luna – Szenes, Zoltán: The propaganda of ISIS/DAESH through the Virtual Space. Defence Against Terrorism Review, Vol.7. No.1 Summer 2015. ISSN 1307-9190 p. 8. The Paris Attacks Will Have Far-Reaching Effects. Available on the Internet https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/paris-attackswill-have-far-reaching-effects (last visited 26.11.2015.) Weinthal, Benjamin: US intelligence: Islamic State fighters pose as Syrian refugees to enter Europe. Available on the Internet http://www.jpost.com/International/US-intelligence-Islamic-State-fighters-pose-as-Syrian-refugees-to-enter-Europe-378084 (last visited 21.06.2015.) józsef KIS-BENEDEK , habil. Ph.D.; Hon. Col. (ret.), is honorary professor at the National University of Public Service in Budapest, Hungary. He is a former intelligent analyst. Research interests: Middle East, terrorism, crisis management and national security. He is member of the military science committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. 464