DEMOGRAPHY & PANDEMIC PAPER PM

6° RISE OF ASIA CONFERENCE 2020 International and Multidisciplinary Conference ONLINE WEBINAR 10 FEBRUARY 2022 NOTES ON DEMOGRAPHY AND PANDEMIC by Paolo Motta FOREWORD The present COVID-19 pandemic, which follows others in recent years, due to its duration and global spread, has and will have a significant impact on demographics and migration movements around the world. It has in fact accelerated and increased trends that have been going on for several years in the composition and distribution of the world population. A decline in the birth rate has already been observed in industrialized countries, greater than in other contexts, which will lead to further aging of the population and reduction of the active labor force. This will entail an increased need for young populations, which feed the growing migratory phenomena from developing countries, with socio-economic problems aggravated by the impact of the pandemic. The constant migratory flows towards Europe by people from North and Central African countries, the Middle East, Afghanistan and others, and to the United States from Central American countries, all affected by very serious economic and environmental crises, bear witness to this. These are the most visible examples to which are added substantial population displacements from areas of the world in conflict such as: Tigray, Iraq, Palestine, Rwanda, Libya, etc. to which to add those linked to ethnic and religious minorities such as the Rohangi just to name one. Or more or less forced displacements within the same countries, to reduce the weight of local minority ethnic groups, see the Uighurs or Tibetans in China. To whose must be added the less visible but relevant flows of economic migrants that move to the new emerging economies from less favored countries Predictably, these phenomena will be joined by migrants fleeing their territories due to the growing impacts of the pandemic, which will not only be health care but socioeconomic as a whole. In this constantly evolving scenario, it is also necessary to take into account the demographic changes caused by global migrations from rural areas to large urban agglomerations, where they settle mostly in marginal and precarious situations. So this is a fundamental aspect of the epochal change that the pandemic together with new technologies are bringing to the entire planetary order that can only be addressed and managed through a new vision shared among all for the overall demographic, environmental, social and economic existing models. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS To elaborate any hypothesis of future development it is essential to analyze and evaluate as a matter of priority the global demographic data and their aggregations, given that the numbers are the elements that will condition every future scenario. Currently, world population growth 1 has slowed from the high pace of the past, it has seen continuous growth with the growth rate peaking at 2.19% per annum in 1964, but nearly halved in 2008. In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world population grew at a rate of 1.14%, equal to 75 million people per year, however down from the peak of 86 million in 1987. Overall, from the peak of 2 , 19% by 1963, the growth rate of the Earth's population is steadily declining, but that growth remains high in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, a population peak of 9.2 billion is expected in 2050. Projections for world population growth and / or decline, including estimates of the most populous countries, after around 2050 become problematic and rather speculative. Recently the World Economic Forum (2020) explains that, from 7.83 billion (December 2020), according to the UN (2019 estimate, updated), the world population will grow to 8.5 billion in 2030, to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100. The projections for the growth and / or decline of the world population, including the estimates of the most populous countries, after about 2050 become only speculative. The growth rate in the near future will not be homogeneous, but will vary from area to area. It will be high in nine states, which together will form half of the total increase, from highest to lowest rate, they are: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and United States of America . It should be noted that in 2027, India will overtake China and become the most populous nation in the world and that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will have doubled by 2050. While much less population growth will be recorded in much of Oceania, East and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and with the lowest overall (2%) in Europe. The global fertility rate, equal to 3.2 children per woman, already dropped to 2.5 in 2019 will drop to 2.2 in 2050; therefore the world population will reach a peak of 9.7 billion in 2064 and will suffer a subsequent decline with 8.8 billion in 2100. The world population is 2 expected to decline, following a peak, and halving by 2100 at least half of the population in many industrialized countries such as Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea and Poland. The People's Republic of China itself will suffer a large reduction in population, falling from the current 1.4 billion people to 730 million by 2100. On the contrary, and it is the most relevant figure at the end of the century, Sub-Saharan Africa will triple the its population, rising from 1 to 3 billion people. In particular, of all African countries, Nigeria will reach nearly 800 million people in 2100, surpass the PRC and be the second most populous country in the world just after India, with 1.1 billion people. This growth trend in Africa will continue beyond 2100. For that date, the UN projects the population in SubSaharan Africa will reach 3.8 billion,+ the bulk of the world's population growth is predicted to take place in Africa: of the additional 1.9 billion people projected between 2020 and 2050, 1.2 billion will be added in Africa, 0.7 billion in Asia and zero in the rest of the world. Africa's share of global population is projected to grow from 17% in 2020 to 26% in 2050 and 39% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 59% in 2020 to 55% in 2050 and 43% in 2100. The strong growth of the African population will happen regardless of the rate of decrease of fertility, because of the exceptional proportion of young people already living today. Thus the population of the more developed countries is slated to remain mostly unchanged, All population growth comes from the less developed regions. The 2019-2022 COVID 19 pandemic, which follows others in recent years, should not have a particular impact on the large numbers of these statistics, due to its duration and global spread will still have an impact on demographics and movements. migrants around the world. It has in fact accelerated and increased trends that have been going on for several years in the composition and distribution of the world population. A decline in the birth rate has already been observed in industrialized countries, greater than in other contexts, which will lead to further aging of the population and reduction of the active labor force. This will entail an increased need for young populations, which feed the growing migratory phenomena from developing countries, with socio-economic problems aggravated by the impact of the pandemic. The constant migratory flows towards Europe by people from North and Central African countries, the Middle East, Afghanistan and others, and to the United States from Central American countries, all affected by very serious economic and environmental crises, bear witness to this. These are the most visible examples to which are added substantial population displacements from areas of the world in conflict such as: Tigray, Iraq, Palestine, 3 Rwanda, Libya, etc. to which to add those linked to ethnic and religious minorities such as the Rohangi just to name one. Or more or less forced displacements within the same countries, to reduce the weight of local minority ethnic groups, see the Uyghurs or Tibetans in China. In the near future, these flows will likely be joined by other migrants who will escape from their territories due to the growing impacts of the pandemic, which will not only be health problems but mainly socio-economic ones. In this constantly evolving scenario, it is also necessary to take into account the demographic changes caused by internal migrations, now on a global level, from rural areas to large urban agglomerations, where newcomers settle mostly in marginal and precarious situations. Unbridled urbanization is a fundamental aspect of the epochal change, which the pandemic together with new technologies are bringing to the entire planetary order, which can only be regulated and managed through a new vision, integrated and shared among all, aimed at the overall demographic rebalancing. , environmental, social and economic. these forecasts of a population decline can have different impacts, positive for less land use, less pollution, less reduction of natural resources, etc, negative as regards the workforce and productivity necessary for the maintenance of the economy. If a country can increase its workforce productivity faster than its population's decline, the results, in terms of its economy, the quality of life of its citizens, and the environment, will be net positive. But if it cannot increase workforce productivity faster than its population's decline, the results will be mostly negative. MIGRATION IMPACTS Even if not directly caused by an increase in the population and by the birth rate, the demographic trend of the various regions of the globe is conditioned by the growing migratory flows of the last decades and increased in the last few years due to phenomena related to climate change (floods, drought , sea level rise, etc), to war conflicts, to deportation of ethnic minorities, but above all to economic and social factors, to which health reasons will now predictably be added. Since the last century, with the advent of the various industrial revolutions there has been a migration from rural and marginal areas to urban ones, with reduced initial flows that have grown exponentially over the last few decades, so that currently the urbanized population is growing globally. towards 70% in 2050, as reported below. Migration phenomena have a significant impact on the structural changes of the population and on this it is interesting to analyze the data on how the main migratory flows are distributed which, contrary to what is believed, are not only towards more industrialized countries in the north, in fact global migration South-South accounts for 38% of total 4 migration, while the global South-North account represents the 34%. This means that in addition to the most well-known migrations in the media, due to their dramatic events, such as that to Europe by sea and now also by land or those from Central American countries to the United States, there are very consistent flows to other countries. emerging from those in the developing world. Up to now, this phenomenon has not been sufficiently analyzed and deserves further study to understand its causes, times and main countries of destination and basins of origin. Even if not directly caused by an increase in the population and by the birth rate, the demographic trend of the various regions of the globe is conditioned by the growing migratory flows of the last decades and increased in the last few years due to phenomena related to climate change (floods, drought , sea level rise, etc), to war conflicts, to deportation of ethnic minorities, but above all to economic and social factors, to which health reasons will now predictably be added.Since the last century, with the advent of the various industrial revolutions there has been a migration from rural and marginal areas to urban ones, with reduced initial flows that have grown exponentially over the last few decades, so that currently the urbanized population is growing globally towards 70% in 2050, as reported Migration phenomena have a significant impact on the structural changes of the population and on this it is interesting to analyze the data on how the main migratory flows are distributed which, contrary to what is believed, are not only towards more industrialized countries in the north, in fact global migration South-South accounts for 38% of total migration, while the global South-North account represents the 34%. This means that in addition to the most well-known migrations in the media, due to their dramatic events, such as that to Europe by sea and now also by land or those from Central American countries to the United States, there are very consistent flows to other countries. emerging from those in the developing world. Up to now, this phenomenon has not been sufficiently analyzed and deserves further study to understand its causes, times and main countries of destination and basins of origin. From the esteems of the United Nations reports emerges, that during the period 2010–2020, fourteen countries have seen a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will have seen a net outflow of similar proportions. The largest migratory outflows have been in response to demand for workers by the industrialized an emerging economies who are coming from other countries as Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines. Or due to insecurity in the home country like Myanmar, Ethiopia, Syria; Iraq and 5 Venezuela. Meanwhile Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Serbia and Ukraine have experienced a net inflow of migrants over the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by a general negative natural increase. Therefore it is believed that within the next thirty years at least 216 million people will be forced to abandon their places of birth or residence, driven by the impacts of climate change, both due to the increase in temperatures, the rise in sea level, and for the violence and frequency of weather-climatic phenomena. The highest number of these mass migrations will affect, as we already see is happening, mainly sub-Saharan Africa with 86 million people on the run, a good 4.2% of the total population. There is talk of 49 million for East Asia and the Pacific area, 40 million for South Asia and to follow with lower, but no less dramatic percentages: North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and also Eastern European areas .. Faced with this picture, which does not seem to wane in the near future, it is obvious that farreaching strategies and measures are needed to be taken globally and not in random order. The EU itself is currently unable to adopt a common migration policy to deal with the phenomenon that has besieged it for many years. The same can be said for the USA, where the change of administration, while reducing some of the severe restrictions of the previous one, does not appear to be able to manage the migratory aspects and the millions of irregular residents. Each strategy must be aimed at retaining the inhabitants in their territories of origin by providing them with employment, educational, health and social standards, which reduce the gap with those that are not always found in urban areas, guaranteeing everyone an adequate quality of life. in rural and marginal areas. If the demographic pressure seems destined to remain stable, it will be precisely the migratory flows that will change the populations of the various continents ever more profoundly, not only in strictly numerical terms but in terms of society as a whole. METROPOLITAN AREAS POPULATION Large urban areas are hubs of economic development and innovation, with larger cities underpinning regional economies and local and global sustainability initiatives. Currently, 757 million humans live in the 101 largest cities; these cities are home to 11% of the world's population. By the end of the century, the world population is projected to grow, with estimates ranging from 6.9 billion to 13.1 billion; ] Most of these agglomeration are located in the emerging countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and Megacities, considered those with more than 10 million people, are projected to increase in number from 33 in 2018 to 43 in 2030, and are mostly located in Asia and Africa, 6 and in these cities are also located the largest informal agglomerations, where a relevant segment of the population lives in completely inadequate conditions. The growth of informal settlements, slums, and poor residential neighborhoods is a global phenomenon accompanying the growth of urban populations and is modifying the entire structure of our cities. An estimated 25 % of the world’s urban population lived in 2016 in slums or informal settlements with 213 million residents (UN-HABITAT-2015).For example, in Asia India’s cities hosted, according to 2015 data, about a total of 13.8 million households, which translates to about 100 million people living in slums across the country—that is, about 24 % of all urban households(UNSD 2015). Today in Africa there are about 297 million people living in urban areas, so a 38% of the total population, and it is estimated that by 2030 this figure will be destined to reach more than 50 percent(UNARP 2012). This continent has an annual urbanization rate of 3.5 percent, the highest in the world, and the number of African cities with a population of over one million inhabitants almost doubled, passing from 40 to 70, in 2015, and this number is expected to be over 100 in 2030. Similar situation faces Latin America, where the six metropolitan areas (Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Mexico City, Santiago de Chile and São Paulo) existing in 2015 are continuing to grow and have a relevant quota of dwellers in slums or precarious settlements (favelas, pueblos jovenes, villas, etc.).The urbanized population in this continent is expected to rise up to 83% in 2030. FINAL REMARKS If is true that not ruled urbanization can threaten the quality of life, cities can also provide the test place needed to come up with related solutions. Cities everywhere have been dramatically 7 impacted by COVID-19, which has closed businesses and prompted a reassessment of public spaces. It will only be through the collective efforts of governments, the private sector, and the public, and by harnessing transformative technologies and developing green economy, that will be possible rethink cities in ways that realize their true potential. Therefore is evident that urban issues represents one of the mayor challenges that we are facing nowadays and the relevance of monitoring "on the field" the main problems faced by the urban areas around the world and collect the main problems and needs of their residents, so to provide a real and updated survey for a correct definition of possible interventions and mitigation actions. Resuming previous considerations, presented for the first time in this Rise of Asia Conference in 2018, I want to underline again how ecology, urban settlements and architecture are strictly connected, and the forecasts done just few years ago for next years, suddenly are here and the changes in daily life by the spread use of new technologies will remain and have a great impact in the entire sustainable development model. We have to rethink and resume the role that minor towns and rural villages represent, as fundamental elements on environment protection, heritage preservation and especially of social cohesion and collective identity feeling. The pandemic highlight the advantages of living in these settlements, not only for just health impacts, but for the fast and continuous response of local communities in reciprocal aid and support, helping the elders and disfavoured categories, facing difficult circumstances much better than urban societies. The environment also advantages from a human presidium that can prevent, with a compatible use of the natural resources, dramatic events as floods, fires, landslides, and so on , not leaving abandoned and unused vast territories that can be revived by modern agricultural methods, not just massive, but also at disposal of smaller enterprises and farmers. This approach can be applied successfully in emerging economies, that still have large rural areas to be developed with the upgrading of many sectors as infrastructures, energy, communications, housing, services, logistic and others with holistic approach and implementation. These countries can and should be the main actors promoting a deep shift from the models imposed by the developed industrial ones from long time, and apply strategies and criteria focused mainly on the overall quality of life of inhabitants and environment friendly sustainable development. As previously stated, the Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the inadequacy of the current urban settlement model, accepted as the inevitable urbanization trend of much of humanity in the coming decades. Hence the need to identify alternative hypotheses, now even more possible thanks to new technologies. This difficult situation in which the whole planet is affected, when ended will certainly have significant consequences in many sectors not only on the economy, whose recovery will certainly not be fast. This "new normality" and the accelerated epochal change based on the widespread use of technologies in all sectors, can favor a desirable modification of the current global financial and economic rules, that are still based on rules over seventy years old and established, in a profoundly different context, by the western countries. Is urgent to implement measures to mitigate the ongoing urbanization trend as soon as possible to reduce negative effects on pollution, environment, land-use and natural resources shortages, with a global action oriented 8 to revamp the rural settlements and retain a large number of inhabitants, mitigating at the same time the pressure of migrating flows toward the huge urban agglomerations. Arch. Paolo Motta EURISPES Senior Expert IASQ- Key Advisor CIVVIH-ICOMOS Member ICTC-ICOMOS Member SDGWG-ICOMOS Member mottapa2gmail.com 9