The Economic Effects of Large Wildfires

University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln JFSP Research Project Reports U.S. Joint Fire Science Program 2013 The Economic Effects of Large Wildfires Cassandra Mosley Dr. University of Oregon, [email protected] Krista Gebert Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Pamela Jakes Dr. Forest Service Northern Research Station Laura Leete Dr. University or Oregon Max Nielsen-Pincus Dr. University of Oregon See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/jfspresearch Part of the Forest Biology Commons, Forest Management Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons, Other Environmental Sciences Commons, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences Commons, Sustainability Commons, and the Wood Science and Pulp, Paper Technology Commons Mosley, Cassandra Dr.; Gebert, Krista; Jakes, Pamela Dr.; Leete, Laura Dr.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max Dr.; Davis, Emily Jane Dr.; Ellison, Autumn; Evers, Cody; Rishel, Branden; and Sundstrom, Shiloh, "The Economic Effects of Large Wildfires" (2013). JFSP Research Project Reports. 55. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/jfspresearch/55 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the U.S. Joint Fire Science Program at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in JFSP Research Project Reports by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska Lincoln. Authors Cassandra Mosley Dr., Krista Gebert, Pamela Jakes Dr., Laura Leete Dr., Max Nielsen-Pincus Dr., Emily Jane Davis Dr., Autumn Ellison, Cody Evers, Branden Rishel, and Shiloh Sundstrom This article is available at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln: http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/jfspresearch/55 The Economic Effects of Large Wildfires Final Report: JFSP Project Number 09-1-10-3 Project website: http://ewp.uoregon.edu/largefires/context Principal Investigator: Dr. Cassandra Moseley, Director, Ecosystem Workforce Program, Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, 5246 University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403. Phone: (541)346-4545. Email: [email protected]. Co- investigators: Krista Gebert, Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT Dr. Pamela Jakes, Forest Service Northern Research Station, St. Paul, MN Dr. Laura Leete, University or Oregon, Eugene, OR Dr. Max Nielsen-Pincus, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR Research Associates and Assistants Dr. Emily Jane Davis, Autumn Ellison, Cody Evers, Branden Rishel, and Shiloh Sundstrom University of Oregon, Eugene, OR Students Assistants: Katie Conaghan, Aleta Katra, Liz Podowski, and Nina Rinaldi University of Oregon, Eugene, OR This research was sponsored in part by the Joint Fire Sciene Program. For further information go to www.firescience.gov. Ecosystem Workforce Program INSTITUTE FOR A SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENT 5247 University of Oregon Eugene OR 97403-5247 T 541-346-4545 F 541-346-2040 [email protected] • ewp.uoregon.edu I.    Abstract   Large  wildfires  disrupt  the  lives  of  workers,  families,  and  employers.  However,   fire  suppression  and  recovery  efforts  may  provide  economic  opportunities.  Unlike   with  other  natural  hazards,  there  has  been  little  research  about  how  wildfires  affect   local  economies.  The  purpose  of  this  project  was  to  analyze  the  effects  of  large   wildfires  on  labor  markets  and  examine  how  fire  suppression  spending  may  mediate   these  effects.       Main  findings  from  this  research  suggest  that  (1)  in  the  short  term,  labor   market  impacts  from  large  wildfires  are  positive  during  the  course  of  a  fire,  (2)  in  the   long-­‐term,  large  wildfires  lead  to  greater  economic  instability  by  amplifying  seasonal   variation  in  employment,  (3)  local  capture  of  suppression  spending  helps  mediate   negative  labor  market  impacts,  and  (4)  local  business  capacity  to  capture  suppression   contracts  varies  and  can  be  measured  by  the  number  of  suppression-­‐related  vendors   active  in  the  county.           II.    Background  and  purpose     Large  wildfires  disrupt  communities  and  often  have  lasting  socioeconomic   effects  (Burchfield  2007,  Carroll  et  al.  2005).    However,  the  input  of  money  from  fire   suppression  and  recovery  efforts  may  also  provide  economic  opportunities.  The  cost   of  suppressing  large  wildfires  has  been  increasing  continually  since  records  of   expenses  began  in  the  1970s,  with  annual  expenses  reaching  well  over  $1  billion   annually  in  the  past  decade.  Unlike  with  other  natural  hazards,  there  has  been  little   research  about  how  large  wildfires  and  the  associated  spending  affect  local   economies.    Prior  to  this  project,  no  generalizable  empirical  research  had  quantified   the  specific  effect  of  large  wildfires  on  local  employment  and  wages.       The  purpose  of  this  project  was  to  fill  this  gap  in  knowledge  in  order  to  help   land  managers,  policy  makers,  and  community  leaders  better  understand,  anticipate,   and  plan  for  the  local  economic  effects  of  wildfires.  The  specific  knowledge  objectives   of  this  study  were  to  (1)  produce  and  provide  information  to  decision-­‐makers  that   will  assist  them  in  making  management  and  policy  decisions  that  support  local   economies  by  minimizing  potential  negative  economic  effects  of  wildfire  and   maximizing  potential  positive  effects,  and  (2)  provide  fire  social  scientists  and   economists  with  knowledge  about  the  effects  of  wildfires  on  local  economic  patters   and  economic  development  efforts.                  These  were  accomplished  through  two  interconnected  research  objectives:       (1)  An  in-­‐depth  study  of  the  social  and  economic  effects  of  the  2008  fire  season   in  Trinity  County,  California.  This  objective  examined  both  the  community   response  to  and  social  impacts  of  the  extreme  wildfire  season  as  well  as  the   economic  impacts  of  the  fires  across  different  sectors  in  the  county.     (2)  A  generalizable  investigation  of  the  relationship  between  fire  suppression   and  local  labor  markets  in  the  west.  This  objective  used  county-­‐level  labor   market  data  to  examine  changes  in  local  employment  and  wage  rates  that   occurred  during  and  after  large  wildfires  from  2004-­‐2008.  It  also  examined   how  differing  levels  of  local  suppression  spending  affected  changes  in  rates,   and  factors  of  local  business  capacity  that  influence  greater  local  capture  rates.           2          III.    Study  description  and  location       The  project  examined  local  community  and  economic  impacts  from  large   wildfires  through  a  dual-­‐methods  approach,  using  an  in-­‐depth  case  study  and  a  larger   west-­‐wide  labor  markets  analysis  to  address  each  objective.       The  first  objective  focused  on  Trinity  County,  CA,  where  our  goal  was  to   develop  a  mixed-­‐methods  case  study  of  the  social  and  economic  impacts  of  large   wildfires.  This  focused  approach  allowed  us  to  delve  deeply  into  qualitative  as  well  as   qualitative  evidence  of  wildfire  experiences  in  rural  communities  in  fire-­‐prone   ecosystems.     Trinity  County  is  a  remote,  mountainous  area  with  more  than  80  percent   public  lands  and  historic  reliance  on  the  forest  industry.  Nearly  the  entire  county  is   classified  as  fire  regime  condition  class  three,  and  has  population  of  approximately   13,500  with  poverty  rates  well  above  the  national  average.  Residents  of  this  county   face  isolation,  poverty,  and  a  challenging  business  environment.  A  number  of  small   recreation-­‐based  communities  lie  along  the  Trinity  River.  Weaverville,  the  county   seat,  has  a  service-­‐based  economy  and  is  home  to  the  county’s  one  remaining  sawmill.   Marijuana  cultivation  has  become  a  primary  source  of  income  for  many  residents.   Trinity  County  also  has  strong  community  efforts  to  reduce  hazardous  fuels  and  build   a  local  biomass  utilization  industry.  In  2008,  numerous  wildfires  burned  in  this   county;  13  of  these  fires  cost  more  than  $1  million  in  suppression.  Total  suppression   costs  in  that  year  were  over  $150  million,  and  the  county  experienced  damages  to   over  $2  million  of  private  timber  as  well  as  road  and  forest  closures  that  affect   recreation  and  natural  resource-­‐based  businesses.     Prior  to  this  fire  season,  researchers  from  another  JFSP-­‐funded  project  had   examined  the  successes  and  challenges  to  developing  biomass  utilization  capacity  to   facilitate  fire  hazard  reduction  and  local  economic  development.  This  made  Trinity   County  an  ideal  case  to  return  to  for  both  re-­‐measurement  and  assessment  of  new   objectives  around  the  economic  impacts  of  large  wildfires.       To  understand  the  effects  of  the  2008  wildfires  in  this  case,  we  first  examined   Forest  Service  financial  transaction  information  to  analyze  patterns  of  suppression   spending,  and  Bureau  of  Labor  Statistics  labor  market  data  to  document  employment   and  wage  rates  before,  during,  and  after  the  fire  season.  For  the  labor  market  analysis,   we  used  a  statistical  regression  model  to  predict  average  employment  and  wage  rate   growth  per  quarter  by  controlling  for  past  growth,  state-­‐level  growth,  economic   volatility,  and  the  effect  of  a  wildfire.  We  applied  the  model  to  Trinity  County’s  overall   labor  market  and  to  specific  economic  sectors.  Second,  we  reviewed  newspapers  and   agency  reports  about  the  2008  wildfires,  and  then  conducted  in-­‐person  semi-­‐ structured  interviews  in  May  2010.  We  used  open-­‐ended  questions  about  the  local   effects  of  the  fires  in  order  to  capture  consistent  data  while  retaining  the  flexibility  to   explore  unanticipated  topics  (Schoenberger  1991).    We  interviewed  twenty-­‐one   individuals,  including  citizens,  business  owners,  elected  officials  and  government   employees,  nonprofit  organization  staff  members,  and  Forest  Service  staff  members.   After  transcription,  coding,  and  analysis,  we  integrated  the  interview  data  with   suppression  spending  and  labor  market  data  to  produce  a  comprehensive  account  of   3   impacts    (Bryman  2006).  This  mixed-­‐methods  case  study  approach  allowed  us  to   show  how  large  fires  may  have  extensive,  interrelated  effects  on  several  economic   sectors  at  local  levels.         The  second  objective  of  the  study  sought  to  generalize  the  labor  market   findings  found  in  the  Trinity  County  research  (Objective  1).  For  this  we  examined  the   effects  of  large  wildfires  on  county-­‐level  employment  and  wages  across  the  West.     Large  wildfires  were  defined  as  those  with  total  suppression  costs  greater  than  $1   million.    In  the  11  western  states,  346  large  wildfires  for  which  the  Forest  Service  was   the  lead  suppression  agent  burned  in  124  counties  from  2004-­‐2008  (see  figure  1).         Figure  1.    Large  wildfires  and  costs,  2004-­‐2008.    The  135  wildfires  in  the   spending  breakdown  sample  are  shown  in  orange.             Using  the  same  methods  of  labor  market  analysis  as  for  Trinity  County,  we   used  statistical  regression  models  to  quantify  local  employment  and  wage  shifts  in   counties  when  large  wildfires  occurred.    In  addition,  to  determine  the  effect  of  local   suppression  spending,  we  requested  transaction  level  financial  information  from  the   Forest  Service’s  Foundation  Financial  Information  System  for  a  sample  of  135  of  the   large  wildfires  stratified  for  Forest  Service  region  and  metropolitan  or  rural  status.   We  coded  each  transaction  for  each  wildfire  based  on  the  county  of  the  recipient’s   address.  We  defined  local  transactions  as  those  where  the  recipient  was  located  in  the   4   same  county  as  the  wildfire.  We  analyzed  these  data  to  identify  where  and  how  fire   suppression  funds  were  spent.   Finally,  we  analyzed  how  the  number  of  federal  contractors  in  a  county  prior   to  a  wildfire  and  county  economic  specialization  predicted  local  business  suppression   capacity  and  influenced  local  capture  when  large  wildfires  occurred.  Together,  these   analyses  revealed  findings  regarding  the  impacts  of  large  wildfires  on  1)  local  labor   markets  across  the  west;  2)  how  the  Forest  Service  spends  suppression  dollars  and   how  local  spending  affects  local  economies,  and  3)  factors  that  influence  local   business  capacity  for  performing  and  capturing  suppression  contracts.           IV.  Key  Findings   The  findings  addressed  below  represent  some  of  the  main  findings  from  this  research   project.    These  findings  are  addressed  only  in  brief  here.    More  in-­‐depth  findings  and   discussion  can  be  found  in  in  the  working  papers  (#s  30,  31,  41,  42,  and  43)  and   briefing  papers  (EWP  BPs  #  44-­‐48)  for  the  project,  which  can  be  found  on  the  project   website  at  http://ewp.uoregon.edu/largefires/context.         A. Impacts  in  Trinity  County,  California     The  initial  case  study  in  Trinity  County,  CA  utilized  qualitative  interviews  and   quantitative  labor  market  data  to  examine  the  social  and  economic  impacts  of  the   2008  fire  season  in  the  county.  The  case  study  provided  a  close  look  at  large  wildfire   impacts  on  a  community  level,  and  yielded  initial  findings  and  established  methods  to   measure  labor  market  impacts  on  a  larger  scale  across  the  west  in  the  rest  of  the   project.     Large  wildfires  in  Trinity  County,  California,  in  2008  caused  dynamic  varied   economic  impacts  including  short-­‐term  suppression  spending  that  helped  some   local  businesses  avoid  closing;  but  natural  resource  wages  and  employment   declined  following  the  fires.    In  the  Trinity  County  case  study,  combined  qualitative   analysis  with  suppression  spending  and  labor  market  data  showed  a  nuanced  range   of  impacts  from  large  wildfires.  Trinity  County  businesses  captured  $7.8  million  or  6   percent  of  the  $150  million  spent  on  suppression  of  the  2008  wildfires.  Interviews   showed  that  many  local  residents  perceived  a  lack  of  local  opportunities  to  perform   this  work;  however,  for  those  who  did  participate  in  the  suppression  effort,  several   businesses  avoided  bankruptcy  and  were  able  to  "pull  out"  of  crisis.  Labor  market   data  showed  that  overall  county  employment  and  wages  increased  during  the   wildfires,  but  natural  resource  and  hospitality  sectors  experienced  decreases  in  the   longer-­‐term.  Trinity  County  residents  considered  the  fires  a  severe  economic  blow   that  intersected  with  existing  conditions  such  as  a  depressed  economy  and  limited   management  activity  on  local  forests.       B. Labor  market  impacts  from  large  wildfires  across  the  West.       Following  from  the  findings  on  labor  market  impacts  realized  in  Trinity  County,  the   project  expanded  in  scope  to  include  wildfire-­‐affected  counties  across  the  American   5   West.    Analysis  of  county-­‐level  labor  market  data  for  all  counties  that  either   experienced  a  large  wildfire  or  where  adjacent  to  a  county  experiencing  a  large   wildfire  during  the  study  period  yielded  the  following  findings:       Large  wildfires  tended  to  have  positive  effects  on  local  labor  markets  during   the  quarter  of  the  fire.    Both  local  employment  and  average  wages  in  affected   counties  increased  when  large  wildfires  occurred.    Although  the  roughly  one  percent   increase  in  employment  and  wages  may  appear  marginal,  it’s  enough  to  make  a   difference  in  local  unemployment  rates.    These  increases  suggest  that,  in  the  short   term,  the  local  economic  impacts  of  large  wildfires  are  positive  as  employment  and   wages  tended  to  grow  faster  than  expected  given  seasonal  trends  and  statewide   business  cycles.  The  effect  spilled  into  neighboring  economies  too.    Counties  that   were  not  directly  hit  by  wildfire,  but  were  adjacent  to  wildfires  experienced  modest   increases  in  both  average  wages  and  employment.     The  labor  market  impacts  from  large  wildfire  events  varied  between  different   types  of  counties.    Counties  with  economies  that  were  dominated  by  recreation,   service,  or  government  sectors  experienced  impacts  that  were  significantly  different   than  the  overall  average.  Greater  increases  in  employment  occurred  in  counties  that   were  economically  reliant  on  recreation  and  government  sectors  while  employment   was  negatively  affected  in  counties  reliant  on  traditional  service  sector  jobs.    Average   wages  also  increased  over  2.7  percent  during  periods  of  wildfire  in  counties  with  a   large  share  of  federal  and  state  government  employment.    The  results  suggest  that   employment  added  during  large  wildfires  may  pay  differently  depending  on  the   sector  where  it  is  added.    Wages  for  fire-­‐associated  jobs  in  government  sectors,  for   instance,  may  grow,  reflecting  hazard  and  overtime  pay  that  may  not  exist  in  other   sectors.   The  amount  of  money  that  is  spent  locally  during  wildfire  suppression  had  a   significant  effect  on  the  labor  market  changes  that  occurred  during  the  wildfire.     Local  labor  markets  were  affected  by  how  suppression  money  was  distributed   geographically.  Local  economic  growth  was  significantly  influenced  by  the  amount  of   suppression  expenses  spent  in  the  county  of  the  fire.  On  average,  for  every  million   spent  locally,  local  employment  increased  one  percent.  In  contrast  the  total  cost  of  the   fire  had  no  effect  on  the  local  economy,  suggesting  that  local  suppression  spending  is   a  better  indicator  for  estimating  local  economic  impacts.   Large  wildfires  had  persistent  effects  on  local  economies.    Although  the  short-­‐ term  effects  of  wildfires  on  local  economies  were  generally  positive,  in  the  medium  to   longer-­‐term,  local  economies  experienced  increased  volatility  in  employment  and   average  wages  (see  figure2).  Wildfires  tended  to  amplify  existing  seasonal  economic   patterns,  reducing  local  economic  stability  in  communities  for  a  year  or  two  after  the   fire.  Similar  to  findings  form  other  natural  disasters,  the  large  wildfires  created  more   drastic  seasonal  patterns  in  the  years  following  the  event.  Although  increased   employment  and  wages  during  wildfires  will  not  likely  negate  these  longer-­‐term   impacts,  they  may  indicate  increased  local  capacity  to  contribute  to  suppression   activities  and  adapt  to  growing  wildfire  risk.   6   Figure  2.    Percent  change  in  average  employment  and  per-­‐worker  wage  growth   rates  during  and  after  large  wildfires       Large  wildfires  affected  county  level  employment  growth  differentially  by   sector.  Some  sectors  naturally  grew  in  response  to  suppression  and  recovery  efforts   while  other  sectors  contracted  as  the  demand  for  other  goods  and  services  declined   until  the  uncertainty  of  the  impact  of  the  wildfire  was  over.  Although  overall   employment  growth  was  positive,  large  fires  had  a  negative  effect  on  employment   growth  in  several  sectors,  while  other  sectors  exhibited  strong  growth  in  months   when  large  wildfires  were  burning.  Natural  resources,  trades,  information,  and   finance  sectors  exhibited  positive  employment  growth  during  large  wildfires.   Construction,  manufacturing,  professional  services,  education  and  health,  and  leisure   and  hospitality  sectors  exhibited  less  than  expected  employment  growth  during  large   wildfires.    Government  employment  remained  stable  during  large  wildfires,  although   county  labor  market  data  showed  that  counties  with  large  proportions  of  government   employees  experienced  significant  growth  in  wages  during  large  wildfires.         C. Forest  Service  spending   How  and  where  the  Forest  Service  spends  suppression  money  can  have  a  significant   impact  on  the  local  communities  and  economies  located  near  wildfires.    The   transaction-­‐by-­‐transaction  breakdown  from  the  135  large  wildfires  in  our  spending   sample  yielded  the  following  findings  about  Forest  Service  spending  on  large  wildfire   suppression:       The  amount  of  local  spending  during  large  wildfires  varied  greatly  between   fires.  The  people,  equipment,  and  skills  involved  in  suppression  work  came  from   both  nearby  communities  and  from  locations  much  farther  away.    Overall,  just  nine   7   percent  of  all  suppression  spending  in  our  sample  of  135  wildfires  was  spent  in  the   county  of  the  fire.    Between  fires,  local  spending  varied  from  zero  to  39  percent  of  the   total  fire  cost.    While  the  large  majority  of  fires  had  less  than  five  percent  local   spending,  a  handful  had  more  than  twenty  percent.     The  Forest  Service  spent  more  money  on  contracted  services  than  any  other   suppression  expenditure  category.    During  wildfires  the  Forest  Service  uses  its   own  workforce,  contracts  with  outside  businesses,  and  enters  into  agreements  with   other  government  entities  to  perform  services.    Because  suppression  contracts  are   made  with  private  vendors,  they  represent  a  central  avenue  for  local  businesses  to   provide  services  during  wildfires  and  capture  spending  locally.    Contracts  for  services   with  private  firms  made  up  39  percent  of  the  total  federal  suppression  spending  we   analyzed,  a  greater  proportion  of  spending  than  wages  for  federal  personnel  and   governmental  agreements  combined.         The  proportion  of  each  large  wildfire  that  went  to  contracted  services  varied  between   fires,  and  was  significantly  related  to  the  overall  cost  of  the  fire,  the  geography  of  the   fire,  and  the  total  cost  of  all  large  wildfires  occurring  at  any  given  time.    As  the  total   cost  of  the  fire  went  up,  the  proportion  of  suppression  expenditures  that  were  spent   on  contracted  services  increased.    In  addition,  fires  in  the  northwestern  part  of  the   study  area  had  higher  proportions  of  contract  spending  than  fires  in  the  southeastern   part.    Finally,  as  the  cost  of  all  wildfires  occurring  across  the  west  increased,  the   proportion  of  the  wildfire  expenses  awarded  to  private  contractors  also  increased.       Spending  on  large  wildfire  suppression  included  substantial  payments  for  a   large  variety  of  suppression  support  services  in  addition  to  direct  suppression   work.    The  highest-­‐paid  service  vendors  in  the  sample  of  wildfires  provided  a  wide   variety  of  services.  Suppression  contracts  were  made  in  sectors  that  varied  from   traditional  natural  resource  services  to  housekeeping  and  utility  services.    While   some  of  the  highest  paid  vendors  in  our  sample  of  wildfires  provided  line  crews  and   suppression  equipment,  others  provided  food  catering,  janitorial  and  other  base-­‐ camp  set  up  or  support  services.    Whether  a  community  has  the  capacity  to  provide   some  of  these  services  or  whether  a  community’s  ability  to  participate  is  quickly   outpaced  may  explain  whether  more  suppression  spending  is  awarded  locally  during   some  wildfires  than  others.         In  the  years  following  large  wildfires,  significant  increases  occurred  in  recovery   and  rehabilitation  service  contracts.    Beyond  suppression  costs,  large  wildfires   incur  significant  costs  for  recovery  after  the  fire  has  been  put  out.    In  the  year  after   large  wildfire  occurrences  in  counties,  service  contracts  increased  for  a  variety  of   facility  and  structure  restoration,  and  natural  rehabilitation  services.    Although  this   research  focused  on  the  impacts  of  the  $1  billion  plus  spent  only  on  suppressing   wildfires  each  year,  additional  impacts  are  implicit  in  the  spending  needed  to  recover   from  wildfire  events.         8   D. Local  business  capacity  and  contract  capture.       Because  suppression  contracts  represent  a  central  avenue  for  local  communities  to   participate  in  wildfire  suppression,  the  research  examined  the  variability  around   local  spending  in  terms  of  differences  in  local  business  capacity  to  provide  the  types   of  work  needed  to  engage  with  suppression  efforts.  The  research  examined  variability   in  local  contract  capture  and  identified  indicators  of  business  capacity  correlated  with   local  capture  rates.         Variability  in  local  capture  of  suppression  contracts  was  one-­‐and-­‐a-­‐half  times   as  great  as  the  variability  in  total  local  spending  during  large  wildfires.       Local  contract  capture  ranged  from  zero  to  62  percent  of  the  total  contracted  cost  per   fire  (see  figure  2),  suggesting  that  some  counties  are  more  adept  in  capturing   suppression  contracts  locally  than  others.    This  means  that  across  wildfire  events,   different  scenarios  of  local  suppression  contract  capture  occur,  with  some  counties   capturing  no  contract  spending  and  others  capturing  the  majority  of  contract   spending.  With  just  12  percent  local  capture  across  all  fires,  the  large  majority  of   suppression  contract  dollars  in  our  study  still  went  to  nonlocal  vendors.     Figure  3.    Percent  of  contracted  suppression  costs  to  local  vendors  by  fire         9   Capture  of  fire  suppression  contracts  is  concentrated  in  a  few  areas  in  the  West.   Capture  of  suppression  contracts  is  not  necessarily  tied  to  the  places  with  the  most   fires.  The  distribution  of  contract  spending  from  the  sample  of  wildfires  across  the   West  suggests  that  capacity  for  local  capture  is  greater  in  some  counties  than  others   (see  figure  3).  Large  wildfire  suppression  events  did  not  always  translate  to  broad   local  participation  in  suppression  contracting,  suggesting  that  capacity  for  local   capture  does  not  always  coincide  with  local  fire  risk.  Furthermore,  some  regions   appear  to  be  particularly  specialized  in  capturing  suppression  contracts,  regardless  of   a  fire’s  location.  This  apparent  specialization  could  be  due  to  the  types  of  existing   businesses  in  these  counties,  long-­‐term  agreements  between  contractors  and  the   Forest  Service  for  suppression  services  in  specific  counties,  or  a  deliberate  business   development  strategy  for  wildfire  suppression  that  is  not  well  understood.         Figure  4.    Distribution  of  contract  expenditures  relative  to  location  of  fires         Local  business  capacity  for  suppression  work  can  be  measured  by  the  number   of  suppression-­‐related  vendors  active  in  the  county  prior  to  the  fire.  Counties   with  more  vendors  captured  more  contract  spending  locally.  In  addition,  counties   with  greater  number  of  vendors  exhibited  greater  variability  in  the  amount  of   suppression  contracting  captured  locally,  indicating  that  the  number  of  vendors  is  a   necessary  but  not  sufficient  condition  for  local  capture.  The  underlying  composition   of  the  local  economy  also  affected  local  capture.    Counties  with  diverse  and  broad-­‐ based  economies  captured  the  most  contract  spending,  while  counties  with  more   narrow  economic  specializations,  including  specializations  in  services,  government,   and  farming  all  had  lower  rates  of  local  capture.     10   The  number  of  relevant  vendors  and  local  economic  specialization  can  be  seen   as  measures  of  contracting  capacity.    Local  economic  specialization  influences  the   types  of  business  present  in  the  county,  and  counties  that  have  more  and  diverse   suppression-­‐related  businesses  interfacing  with  the  federal  government  have  more   resources  for  federal  suppression  work.    Together,  these  two  factors  accounted  for  62   percent  of  the  variance  in  local  capture.    Our  research  suggests  that  although  there   are  other  factors  at  play,  underlying  economic  structure  and  the  number  of  vendors   interfacing  with  the  federal  government  are  important  predictors  of  how  local   economies  experience  large  wildfires.         V.    Management  implications   Taken  together,  these  findings  suggest  that  the  details  of  how  wildfires  affect   communities  economically  differs  based  on  the  particulars  of  the  fire  and  the  local   economy.    Some  sectors,  such  as  tourism  and  natural  resources,  are  more  likely  than   others  to  feel  the  effects  of  a  wildfire.  Some  of  these  impacts  are  simply  the  result  of   underlying  ecological  and  economic  processes.    In  most  cases,  however,  fire   suppression  spending  reduces  the  negative  impacts  of  a  large  wildfire,  by  stimulating   short-­‐term  economic  growth.    The  greater  the  amount  of  suppression  money  spent   locally,  the  greater  the  short-­‐term  economic  growth.    Consequently,  agency   decisions  about  how  they  spend  suppression  funds  influences  how  a  community   experiences  a  wildfire.     Clearly,  there  are  complex  dynamics  in  play  that  drive  the  complex  wildfire   response  system,  not  the  least  of  which  is  the  need  to  ensure  that  there  is  adequate   natural  hazard  response  capacity  available  nationally  at  a  moments  notice  without   wasting  precious  resources  developing  excess  capacity.    This  paper  does  not  suggest   that  all  suppression  spending  needs  to  occur  locally;  rather  it  suggests  that   suppression  policies,  management  strategies,  and  associated  spending  decisions  are   not  without  economic  and  social  costs  (and  benefits)  to  communities  where  wildfires   occur.   This  study  also  finds  that  pre-­‐existing  local  business  capacity  is  a  factor   influencing  how  much  contract  suppression  spending  is  captured  locally  during  a  fire.     Local  economics  that  include  many  of  businesses  that  contract  with  the  federal   government  for  either  natural  resource  or  fire-­‐related  services  prior  to  a  wildfire   tend  to  capture  more  suppression  spending  when  the  large  fire  comes  to  that   community.  Business  capacity  to  participate  in  preparation,  mitigation,  response,   and  recovery  needs  to  be  considered  as  one  of  the  components  of  influencing   community  resiliency  to  wildfire.     Over  the  past  decade,  there  has  been  a  significant  policy  emphasis  on  engaging   communities  in  reducing  fire  hazards  and  preparing  for  wildfire.  One  central  strategy   for  accomplishing  this  has  been  to  encourage  local  community  groups  and  fire   departments  to  develop  and  implements  wildfire  protection  plans,  reduce  fire  hazard,   and  increase  rural  fire  department  response  capacity.    This  approach,  however,  has   tended  to  neglect  business  capacity.  Communities  may  want  to  increase  attention   on  ensuring  that  relevant  local  businesses  are  prepared  to  participate  in  federal   contracting  across  all  phases  of  wildfire  management  and  that  relevant   11   government  agencies  are  structuring  contracting  opportunities  and  dispatch   practices  to  foster  that  local  capacity  while  meeting  agency  needs.  This  is   particularly  true  in  parts  of  the  country  where  the  federal  land  management  agencies   make  significant  use  of  contractors  for  wildfire  management.     This  study  also  finds  that  large  fires  are  most  likely  to  occur  in  communities   with  significant  seasonal  variation  in  employment,  and  that  large  wildfires  tend  to   increase  this  economic  volatility.    In  places  with  already  weak  and  vulnerable   economies,  large  wildfires  can  create  further  instability.    In  addition,  communities   that  are  isolated,  lack  economically  diversity,  and  have  low  population  tend  to  fewer   businesses  available  to  participate  in  wildfires  and  have  lower  capture  rates  of   suppression  contract  spending.    With  this  limited  pre-­‐existing  capacity  and  local   capture,  large  fires  may  destabilize  already  vulnerable  local  economy.           In  isolated  communities  with  significant  public  lands,  low  populations,  and   narrow  economic  diversity,  federal  land  management  agencies  and  community   leaders  may  need  to  develop  deliberate  strategies  to  increase  resiliency.  In  these   communities,  it  may  be  productive  to  develop  integrated  mitigation,  preparation,   response,  and  recovery  capacity  across  the  public,  non-­‐profit,  private  sectors  to   create  a  mutually  reinforcing  system  for  fire  and  forest  management.    Building  this   integrated  capacity  would  likely  require  attention  to  the  structure  of  the  contracting   systems  that  drive  demand  for  wildfire  management  services,  and  the  capacity  of  the   organizational  of  the  entities  that  respond  to  that  demand.    Given  the  limited  capacity   and  risks  to  resilience  in  these  communities,  success  may  require  more  intensive   and  deliberate  investments  in  capacity  building  than  in  more  diverse,  affluent,   and  larger  population  communities.         VI.  Relationship  to  other  recent  findings  and  ongoing  work       This  was  the  first  project  to  examine  the  economic  impacts  of  wildfires  on  local  labor   markets.    This  inquiry  builds  onto  several  bodies  of  research:     1)  Wildfire  suppression  expenditures   Previous  research  on  wildfire  suppression  costs,  such  as  Prestemon,  Gebert,  and   others,  has  focused  on  the  trend  of  growing  costs  and  increasingly  severe  fire   seasons,  often  at  the  national  scale.  Little  attention  has  been  given  to  local  impacts,   business  capture,  and  the  resulting  fire  suppression  industry  that  has  arisen.  Our   work  adds  to  this  research  by  better  documenting  how  and  where  suppression   money  is  spent,  in  particular  how  it  “reaches  the  ground”  across  the  West.       2)  Economic  impacts  of  natural  disasters   While  this  project  was  the  first  to  examine  the  economic  impacts  of  large  wildfire   events  from  the  community  perspective,  there  is  longer  tradition  of  looking  at  local   economic  impacts  from  natural  hazards.  The  project  builds  onto  existing  literature   that  examines  labor  market  shifts  from  natural  disasters  such  as  hurricanes  (Belasen   and  Polachek  2008)  and  tornados  (Ewing  et  al.  2005),  introducing  wildfires  into  the   research  and  literature  on  local  economic  impacts  during  disasters.   12      3)  Local  business  capacity  for  natural  resource  work   Our  research  explored  two  dimensions  of  community  capacity  in  relation  to  wildfires.   First,  we  contributed  new  work  on  local  business  capacity  for  performing   suppression  activities.  Although  there  is  existing  literature  on  natural  resource   management  businesses  and  their  ability  to  capture  local  work  from  federal  land   management  agencies  (e.g.  Moseley  and  Shankle  2001,  Moseley  and  Toth  2004),  this   focus  had  not  yet  been  applied  to  wildfire-­‐related  activities,  including  the  variety  of   support  services  that  are  contracted.  Second,  we  also  have  contributed  to  a  broader   literature  on  community  capacity  and  wildfire  response  that  Williams  and  others   have  recently  spearheaded.  This  work  has  focused  on  community  wildfire  protection   planning  and  the  social  and  institutional  dimensions  of  community  preparedness  and   experiences.  Our  research  adds  economic  and  business  considerations  to  this  work,   providing  a  more  complete  picture  of  community  capacity.       In  addition  to  contributing  to  the  the  bodies  of  research  noted  above,  members  of  the   research  team  are  currently  involved  in  a  number  of  related  ongoing  projects  that   build  from  and  supplement  the  findings  from  this  project:     Managing  the  market:  How  procurement  practices  impact  private  sector   wildfire  response  capacity   This  study  looks  at  how  the  Forest  Service  acts  as  a  market  manager  during  wildfire   suppression  contracting  through  its  processes,  partnerships,  requirements,  and   dispatching  protocols.    It  then  assesses  the  business  models  that  suppression   contractors  use  do  develop  and  maintain  suppression  capacity  in  ways  that  are   competitive,  sustainable,  and  responsive  to  government  requirements  and   regulations.    This  study  will  help  enable  respondents  to  the  recent  JFSP  RFA   associated  with  calculating  the  costs  and  benefits  of  hazardous  fuels  reduction  by   providing  information  on  the  role  and  costs  of  suppression  work.         Understanding  the  Roles  of  Socioeconomic  Vulnerability,  Adaptive  Capacity,   and  Mitigation  in  Determining  Economic  Impacts  of  Wildfire   This  study  examines  how  socioeconomic  status,  wildfire  planning  and  adaptive   capacity  in  communities  interact  and  influence  community  resilience  to  large   wildfires  when  they  occur.  The  study  considers  the  identified  economic  impacts  in  the   myriad  of  large  wildfire  effects  to  communities,  and  considers  community  capacity   for  planning  by  examining  130+  Community  Wildfire  Protection  Plans  (CWPPs)   across  western  states.  This  project  also  builds  onto  the  2004-­‐2008  data  set  of  Forest   Service  suppression  spending  on  large  wildfires,  extending  the  set  of  large  wildfires   with  detailed  spending  information  to  2011.         Community-­‐Based  Organizations,  Social  Networks,  and  Conservation:  Strategies   for  Rural  Economic  Development  in  the  West   This  project  examines  natural  resource-­‐based  economic  development  in  rural   communities  across  the  West.  In  particular,  the  study  investigates  the  role  of  non-­‐ profit  community  based  organizations  in  building  this  capacity  and  enhancing  the   13   business  environment  in  public  lands  communities.  This  includes  businesses  that   perform  fire  suppression  as  well  as  other  natural  resource  management  work.  Like   Williams,  Cheng,  Jakes,  and  others,  we  are  interested  in  the  institutions  and  networks   that  enable  community  capacity  and  business  innovation.       Economic  Impacts  of  Forest  and  Watershed  Restoration   We  have  conducted  studies  of  the  economic  impacts  of  restoration  in  Oregon   (Nielsen-­‐Pincus  and  Moseley  2010)  and  are  currently  expanding  this  project   nationally.  This  has  included  analysis  of  federal  and  state  investments  in  restoration,   a  profile  of  the  restoration  industry,  and  tools  to  help  practitioners  better  estimate   and  understand  the  economic  impacts  of  their  work.  Through  this  large  fires  study,   we  have  gained  valuable  knowledge  about  the  impacts  of  fire  suppression  work  and   the  connections  between  suppression  and  restoration  work  in  sustaining  capacity,   creating  a  more  complete  picture  of  both  the  business  and  community  capacity  to   manage  natural  resources  and  wildfires.       Northwest  Fire  Science  Consortium   We  are  part  of  the  leadership  team  of  the  JFSP-­‐funded  Northwest  Fire  Science   Consortium  that  began  providing  science  and  knowledge  dissemination  in  2012.  We   help  bring  social  and  economic  research  such  as  this  study  forward  through  this   venue,  ensuring  that  community  capacity  and  economic  development  findings  are   shared  with  diverse  manager  and  practitioner  audiences  across  this  region.  In   particular,  the  consortium  has  provided  a  channel  to  better  and  more  broadly   communicate  the  findings  of  this  study  with  these  audiences.         VII.    Future  work  needed   The  ongoing  research  above  reflects  some  of  the  research  team’s  and  other’s   focus  on  future  needed  work.  In  particular,  this  research  raises  questions  about    (1)   fire  suppression  business  capacity;  and  (2)  connections  between  the  markets  and   business  models  that  connect  hazardous  fuels  reduction/restoration  and  fire   suppression.       First,  this  study  finds  that  greater  local  capacity  for  suppression  contracts   leads  to  greater  local  capture,  and  greater  labor  market  benefit  during  large  wildfire   events.    More  research  is  needed  to  determine  what  the  “right”  amount  of  local   capacity  is;  in  other  words,  the  level  of  local  capacity  that  allows  a  community  to   effectively  mitigate  the  economic  disruption  and  instability  caused  by  large  wildfires.   Further  inquiry  might  also  address  the  level  of  local  capacity  that  is  needed  for  a   community  to  effectively  contribute  to  the  scale  of  services  required  during  large   wildfire  events.  Additional  research  is  also  needed  to  understand  how  communities   create  and  sustain  capacity,  and  how  policies  can  promote  community  capacity.  In   particular,  an  understanding  of  the  roles  of  non-­‐suppression  contracting  practices,   dispatch  practices,  and  local  direct  federal  employment  is  needed.       Second,  this  study  finds  that  large  fires  impact  local  labor  markets  for  at  least  a   year  after  a  fire.    It  also  finds  that  pre-­‐existing  natural  resource  contractor  capacity   influences  the  amount  of  local  capture  of  contract  suppression  spending.    Taken   14   together,  these  two  findings  raise  intriguing  questions  about  how  restoration   contracting  industry  and  the  suppression  contracting  industry  are  connected  to  each   other.    Little  is  known  about  these  relationships.    Although  this  research  suggests  that   managers  and  policy  makers  may  be  able  to  temper  the  boom-­‐bust  economics  of  fire   suppression  by  thinking  about  their  hazardous  fuels/ecosystem  restoration   contracting  in  concert,  more  research  is  needed  to  understand  this  relationship.    In   order  to  create  effective  policy  and  management  options,  we  need  to  know  more   about  how  these  markets  are  connected  to  each  other  as  well  as  more  about  the   interconnections  between  local  and  regional  contracting  markets.                                                                                 15   VIII. Deliverables Cross-Walk Table Products produced beyond those proposed are noted in green Proposed Delivered Status Project website http://ewp.uoregon.edu/largefires/context Project description 2-pager Transferred to website description of project, final results briefing paper (BP #48) 4 conference presentations (see end citations): 2 preliminary results (ISSRM 2010, EMFR 2011) 2 with final results (ISSRM 2012, FireEco. 2012) HDWF 2012-1 (Capacity) HDWF 2012-2 (Labor Markets) 1) EWP Working Paper # 30 2) EWP Working Paper # 31 3 additional EWP Working Papers (#’s 41, 42, 43). See end citations. 5 EWP Briefing Papers (#’s 44, 45, 46, 47, 48) See end citations. On 9/14/12, EWP released a preliminary findings press-release to coincide with the fire season. The release was re-covered by Oregon Public Broadcasting, Science Daily, 2 local news stations, EE news, and others. 1) Davis et al., submitted to Society and Natural Resources 2) Nielsen-Pincus et al, submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 3) Moseley et al, submitted to International Journal of Wildland Fire 4) Nielsen-Pincus at al, in prep for Forect Policy and Economics 12/11/12-12/14/12, meetings with key personnel, intereste groups, and congressional staff. Brown bag lunch of research findings with key Forest Service personnel on 12/11/12. Follow up information and data provided the following week upon request. JFSP Cold Springs Field Tour Presentation, 9/12/12 Webinar on Results via Forest Guild 12/17/12 Complete, update as needed Completed 3 academic conferences: 2 with preliminary results 1 with final results Two presentation/poster at manager/ practitioner conferences 1 Trinity County non-referred paper 1 non-referred report of findings 1 non-referred briefing paper of findings 1 press release announcing findings Two referred journal articles submitted Washington D.C. briefings for key FS personnel, interest groups, and congressional staff Ellison et al, Rural Connections article Completed Completed Completed Completed Completed Completed 1) 2) 3) 4) Under review Under review Under review In prep Completed Additonal presentation completed Additional dissemination of results completed Additonal product/ dissemination completed 16 IX.  Sources  Cited     Belasen,  A.R.,  and  S.W.  Polachek.  2008.    How  hurricanes  affect  wages  and  employment  in  local   labor  markets.    American  Economic  Review:  Papers  and  Proceedings  98:  49-­‐53     Bryman,  A.    2006.    Integrating  quantitative  and  qualitative  research:  how  is  it  done?   Qualitative  Research  6(1):  97-­‐113.         Burchfield,  J.  2007.  Community  impacts  of  large  wildfire  events:  Consequences  of  actions   after  the  fire.  Pages  124-­‐140  in  T.C.  Daniel,  M.S.  Carroll,  C.  Moseley,  C.  Raish,  eds.  People,  Fire,   and  Forests:  A  Synthesis  of  Wildfire  Social  Science  (Corvallis,  Oregon:  OSU  Press,  2007).     Carroll,  M.S.,  P.J.  Cohn,  D.N.  Seesholtz,  and  L.L.  Higgins.  2005.  Fire  as  a  galvanizing  and   fragmenting  influence  on  communities:  The  Case  of  the  Rodeo-­‐Chediski  Fire.  Society  and   Natural  Resources  18(4):  301-­‐20.     Ewing,  B.,  J.B.  Kruse,  and  M.A.  Thompson.  2005.    Twister!  Employment  responses  to  the  May   3,  1999,  Oklahoma  City  Tornado.  Applied  Economics  41  (6):  691-­‐  702.       Moseley,  C.,  and  S.  Shankle.  2001.  National  forest  contracting  in  the  Pacific  Northwest.  Journal   of  Forestry  99(3);  32-­‐37.     Moseley,  C.,  and  N.  Toth.  2004.  Fire  hazard  reduction  and  economic  opportunity:  How  are  the   benefits  of  the  National  Fire  Plan  distributed?  Society  and  Natural  Resources  17(8):701-­‐716.       Shoenberger,  E.  1991.  The  corporate  interview  as  a  research  method  in  economic  geography.   The  Professional  Geographer  43(2):180-­‐189.         X.    Deliverables     Final  report:       Moseley,  C.,  K.  Gebert,  P.  Jakes,  L.  Leete  and  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus.    2012.  The  economic  impacts   of  large  wildfires.    Final  Project  Report  (JFSP  Project  Number:  09-­‐1-­‐10-­‐3).    December  31,   2012.  Eugene,  OR.         Website:     The  Economic  Impacts  of  Large  Wildfires.    Research  Project  Website:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/largefires/context       Press  Release:       Preliminary  findings  release:     http://uonews.uoregon.edu/archive/news-­‐release/2012/9/uo-­‐study-­‐shows-­‐wildfires-­‐ positive-­‐and-­‐negative-­‐economic-­‐impacts   17        Conference  Presentations/  Workshops       M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  E.J.  Davis,  C.  Moseley,  and  P.  Jakes.    The  economic  impacts  of  large   wildfires:  A  mixed  methods  perspective  from  Trinity  County,  CA.    June  7,  2010.    International   Symposium  on  Society  and  Resource  Management.    Madison,  WI.     Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  M.,  C.  Moseley,  E.J.  Davis,  P.  Jakes,  and  L.  Leete.    The  economic  impacts  of  large   wildfires.    November  16,  2011.    Exploring  the  Mega-­‐fire  Reality:  A  Forest  Ecology  and   Management  Conference.    Tallahassee,  FL.     Moseley,  C.,  C.  Evers,  and  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus.    Community  Business  Capacity  to  Participate  in   Wildland  Fire  Operations.    April  18,  2012.    Third  Conference  on  the  Human  Dimension  of   Wildland  Fire,  International  Association  of  Wildland  Fire.    Seattle,  WA.     Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  M.,  C.  Moseley,  E.J.  Davis,  L.  Leete,  and  P.  Jakes.    The  effect  of  large  wildfires  on   local  labor  markets.    April  18,  2012.    Third  Conference  on  the  Human  Dimension  of  Wildland   Fire,  International  Association  of  Wildland  Fire.    Seattle,  WA.     Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  M.,  L.  Leete,  E.  Jane  Davis,  P.  Jakes,  C.  Moseley.    The  effect  of  large  wildfires  on   local  labor  markets:  A  mixed  methods  perspective  from  the  western  US  and  Trinity  County,   California.    June  17,  2012.    International  Symposium  on  Society  and  Natural  Resource   Management.    Edmonton,  Alberta.     Moseley,  C.,  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  E.J.  Davis,  A.  Ellison,  and  C.  Evers.    Local  Contracting  Capacity   and  Economic  Impacts  of  Large  Wildfires.  Paper  presented  at  the  5th  Association  of  Fire   Ecology  Conference,  Portland,  Oregon,  December  3-­‐7,  2012.       Invited  Papers/  Presentations     Moseley,  C.  and  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus.  Local  Economic  Effects  of  Large  Wildfires.  Webinar  on   December  17,  2012  at  11  AM  PST.    Hosted  by  the  Forest  Guild.  Link  to  audio:   https://forestguild.mitel-­‐nhwc.com/join/bkcpphh     Washington,  DC  presentations:     PI,  Cassandra  Moseley,  traveled  to  Washington,  D.C.  the  week  of  December  15th  to  present   findings  to  managers  and  policy  makers.    She  had  15  meetings  with  Forest  Service,  Office  of   Management  and  Budget,  USDA,  and  Hill  staff.    Forest  Service  meetings  included  a  seminar   presentation  to  approximately  12  people  as  well  as  briefings  with  the  Associate  Chief,  Deputy   Chief  for  State  and  Private  Forestry,  and  Director  of  Fire  and  Aviation  Management.  She  me   with  congressional  staff  from  the  Oregon  delegation,  as  well  as  the  House  and  Senate   resource  committees.     JFSP  Cold  Springs  field  tour:   PI,  Cassandra  Moseley  presented  preliminary  research  findings  linked  to  the  economic   impacts  of  the  Cold  Springs  Fire  in  particular,  during  the  JFSP  Cold  Springs  Field  Tour  on   September  12,  2012.  A  briefing  paper  of  findings  for  the  research  and  the  fire  was  created  for   distribution  (see  briefing  paper  citation  below).         18      Publications  in  Print/  in  Press     Working  papers:   M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  Evers,  C.,  A.  Ellison,  and  C.  Moseley.    2012.    Wildfire  Suppression   Contracting:    The  Effect  of  Local  Business  Capacity  during  Large  Wildfire  Events.    Ecosystem   Workforce  Program  Working  Paper  43.    University  of  Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online   [URL]:  http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/working/.     Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  M.,  A.  Ellison,  and  C.  Moseley.    The  Effect  of  Large  Wildfire  on  Local  Labor   Markets.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program  Working  Paper  42.    University  of  Oregon.  Eugene,   OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:  http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/working/.   Ellison,  A.,  C.  Moseley,  C.  Evers,  and  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus.    2012.    Forest  Service  Spending  on   Large  Wildfires  in  the  West.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program  Working  Paper  41.    University  of   Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/working/.     Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  M.,  C.  Moseley,  and  E.J.  Davis.    2011.    Fire  suppression  costs  and  impacts  of   the  2008  wildfires  in  Trinity  County,  California.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program  Working   Paper  31.    University  of  Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/working/.     Davis,  E.J.,  C.  Moseley,  P.  Jakes,  and  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus.    2011.    The  Lost  Summer:  Community   experiences  of  large  wildfires  in  Trinity  County,  California.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program   Working  Paper  30.    University  of  Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/working/.     Briefing  papers:     Moseley,  C.,  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  E.J.  Davis,  C.  Evers,  and  A.  Ellison.  2012.  Economic  Effects  of   Large  Fires:  Main  Findings.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program  Briefing  Paper  48.  University  of   Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/briefing/       Ellison,  A.,  C.  Moseley,  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus  and  C.  Evers.  2012.  Wildfire  Suppression   Contracting:    The  Effect  of  Local  Business  Capacity  during  Large  Wildfire  Events.    Ecosystem   Workforce  Program  Briefing  Paper  47.  University  of  Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online   [URL]:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/briefing/     Ellison,  A.,  C.  Moseley,  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus  and  E.J.  Davis.  2012.  The  Effect  of  Large  Wildfires  on   Local  Labor  Markets.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program  Briefing  Paper  46.  University  of  Oregon.   Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/briefing/     Ellison,  A.,  C.  Moseley,  C.  Evers,  and  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus.  2012.  Forest  Service  Spending  on   Large  Wildfires  in  the  American  West.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program  Briefing  Paper  45.   University  of  Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:   19   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/briefing/     Moseley,  C.,  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  and  B.  Rishel.  2012.  Economic  Effects  of  Large  Fires:   Application  to  the  Cold  Springs  Fire.    Ecosystem  Workforce  Program  Briefing  Paper  44.   University  of  Oregon.  Eugene,  OR.    Available  Online  [URL]:   http://ewp.uoregon.edu/publications/briefing/       Other:   Ellison,  A.,  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  E.J.  Davis,  C.  Evers,  and  C.  Moseley.  The  Economic  Impacts  of   Large  Wildfires.  Rural  Connections  magazine.           Publications  under  Review  (refereed)     Davis,  E.J.,  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  C.  Moseley,  and  P.  Jakes.    The  community  economic  impacts  of   large  wildfires:  A  case  study  from  Trinity  County,  CA.    Submitted  to  Society  and  Natural   Resources  on  October  15,  2012.     Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  M.,  C.  Moseley,  K.  Gebert.    The  effect  of  large  wildfires  on  economic  growth   and  volatility  in  the  western  United  States.    Submitted  to  Proceedings  of  the  National  Academy   of  Sciences  on  November  16,  2012.   Evers,  C.,  C.  Moseley,  and  M.  Nielsen-­‐Pincus.    Predicting  local  business  participation  in   wildfire  suppression  contracting  in  the  Western  United  States.    Submitted  to  International   Journal  of  Wildland  Fire  on  December  30,  2012.       Publications  in  Preparation  (refereed)     Nielsen-­‐Pincus,  M.,  C.  Moseley,  and  K.  Gebert.    The  impact  of  large  wildland  fires  on  local  labor   markets.    In  preparation  for  Forest  Policy  and  Economics.                 20