Exemplar material

Support Materials GCE Economics H061/H461:  AS/A Level Economics Exemplar Materials Contents 1 Unit F581: Markets In Action 3 2 Unit F582: The National and International Economy 6 3 Unit F583: Economics of Work and Leisure 9 4 Unit F584: Transport Economics 20 5 Unit F585: The Global Economy 34 2 GCE Economics 1 Unit F581: Markets In Action Question G Strong Candidates answer: GCE Economics 3 Weak Candidates answer 4 GCE Economics Question E (iii) Strong Candidates answer Weak Candidates answer GCE Economics 5 2 Unit F582: The National and International Economy Strong Candidates answer ‘Comment on one likely effect of rising exports on the Spanish economy.’ If exports rise by more than imports, there will be an increase in net exports and so an increase in aggregate demand (AD). Higher AD will increase real GDP. Cyclical unemployment, which is caused by a lack of AD, is likely to be reduced. Low unemployment is one of the government’s macroeconomic objectives. But if exports increase when the economy is at or close to full employment, there may be little impact on unemployment. In this case the main effect will be on the price level – there will be inflation. It is also possible that a rise in exports may be exceeded by a rise in imports. In this case, AD will fall and unemployment will rise. ‘Discuss the causes of economic growth.’ Economic growth can be caused by an increase in aggregate demand (AD) if there are unemployed resources. In the diagram the economy is initially operating at a real GDP of Y. An increase in AD will cause real GDP to increase to Y1. (See Figure 1) 6 GCE Economics The increase in AD may be the result of government policy, increases in consumer and business confidence or an improvement in the country’s international trade position. The government can use fiscal policy to raise real GDP and reduce unemployment. A rise in government spending will directly increase AD. A cut in income tax will increase people’s disposable income which allows them to spend more. Monetary policy can also be used. Lower interest rates should encourage people to borrow more and purchase more goods. If people and firms feel more optimistic about the future, consumption and investment will increase. As well as increases in C, I and G causing an increase in AD and so economic growth, there may be an increase in net exports. Exports may rise and imports may fall if the exchange rate falls or incomes abroad increase. Increases in AD can only cause economic growth for a while. This is because eventually full capacity will be reached and the economy will not be able to produce any more. In the long run there must be an increase in aggregate supply (AS) for economic growth to continue. The diagram shows both AD and AS increasing. (See Figure 2) If increases in AS can match increases in AD, the economy can grow without inflation. AS increases when there is an increase in the quantity of resources or their quality. For instance, immigration of workers and improvements in education and training should enable an economy to produce a higher output. One important cause of economic growth is investment. When firms buy capital goods they add to AD and they add to AS. Additional capital goods and replacement capital goods that use more advanced technology increase an economy’s productive capacity. GCE Economics 7 Weak Candidates answer ‘Comment on one likely effect of rising exports on the Spanish economy.’ Exports are goods sold to other countries. An increase in exports will mean that firms will produce more goods to sell to other countries. Firms will take on more workers. This will increase employment. So unemployment should fall. This will save the government money. ‘Discuss the causes of economic growth.’ Economic growth is an increase in a country’s output. Firms will produce more if there is a rise in aggregate demand. The higher output will mean that firms will take on more workers and so unemployment will fall. More employment means that there will be more workers producing more goods and services. So there is more output as measured by GDP. Changes in GDP are the measure of economic growth. There is a risk that when demand becomes too high there will be inflation. This is a disadvantage of economic growth. The diagram shows aggregate demand increasing. This causes a rise in supply and an increase in productivity. (See Figure 3) Firms supply more because their profits rise. The existence of supernormal profits may encourage more firms to enter the industry. It may be difficult to increase supply if there are barriers to entry. 8 GCE Economics 3 Unit F583: Economics of Work and Leisure Strong Candidates answer GCE Economics 9 10 GCE Economics GCE Economics 11 Weak Candidates answer 12 GCE Economics GCE Economics 13 Strong Candidates answer 14 GCE Economics GCE Economics 15 16 GCE Economics Stretch and challenge extension GCE Economics 17 18 GCE Economics Weak Candidates answer GCE Economics 19 4 Unit F584: Transport Economics Question 1(b)(ii) Comment on how the strength of barriers to entry can determine the market structure of an industry. Strong Candidates answer Stretch and challenge extension Weak Candidates answer 20 GCE Economics Question 1(c) Discuss how Stagecoach’s acquisition of the Traction Group might affect the contestability of the local bus market in the UK. Strong candidates answer Stretch and challenge extension GCE Economics 21 Weak Candidates answer 22 GCE Economics Question 2(b) Discuss the extent to which the proposed system of road user charging announced in July 2005 might lead to a more efficient allocation of resources. Strong Candidates answer GCE Economics 23 24 GCE Economics Stretch and challenge extension GCE Economics 25 Weak Candidates answer 26 GCE Economics Question 3(b) Discuss whether economists are right to have increasing concerns over the growth in demand for low-cost air transport in Europe. Strong candidates answer GCE Economics 27 28 GCE Economics Stretch and challenge extension GCE Economics 29 Weak Candidates answer 30 GCE Economics Question 4(b) Discuss the extent to which the Department of Transport’s ‘New Approach to Road Appraisal’ overcomes criticism of the traditional cost benefit approach. Strong Candidates answer GCE Economics 31 Stretch and challenge extension 32 GCE Economics Weak Candidates answer GCE Economics 33 5 Unit F585: The Global Economy Question 1 (c) Comment on the extent to which rapid economic growth, such as that experienced in China, is desirable. [10] Strong Candidates answer Rapid economic growth in China has brought many benefits to the Chinese economy. Economic growth is a measure of how an economy’ output, income and expenditure is rising. Since the standard of living is related to the material well-being of an economy, rising GDP will make it possible for consumers to enjoy greater levels of consumption of goods and services and be better off. In addition, since the economy is producing more output it will need to employ more of the three factors of production – land, labour and capital. Greater employment of labour will have a number of benefits for the economy, making rapid economic growth desirable. These benefits include not just higher incomes and expenditure but also more tax receipts for the government. This will allow the government to spend more on health and education. Higher GDP, increased life expectancy and higher literacy levels will increase the measured level of human development as measured in the HDI. The rapid growth of an economy such as China will also be desirable to other economies. Rising aggregate demand in China will generate an increase in demand for goods and services produced in by other economies. This will cause higher export demand, creating employment and incomes in the global economy. This will directly feed through into higher AD in economies such as the UK or the US. Rapid economic growth in China raises world demand – this is especially important at a time when domestic economies such as the US are suffering the consequences of a slowdown in economic activity due to the credit squeeze. Rapid economic growth also brings costs. Too rapid growth might not be sustainable. An economy can only grow in the long term as rapidly as its productive capacity increases. This means that, in the short term, rapid economic growth might be undesirable as it will put upward pressure on prices, generating demand-pull inflation. Rapid economic growth will, therefore, not be sustainable because to deal with the problem of inflation, governments will have to raise interest rates to reduce the growth in spending and encourage consumers to save more. Rapid economic growth will also bring environmental costs. Depending on how the economic growth is achieved there may be an increase in negative externalties, such as the traffic congestion in Shanghai. This causes MSC to be higher than MPC, creating overproduction and consumption. There may be too much production and consumption taking place with rapid economic growth. Another cost might be for other countries. Rapid economic growth in China will drive up the demand for energy globally, This will increase the demand for oil and gas. These goods have price inelastic supply in the short run, so there will be a more than proportionate increase in the price of such goods. This will create higher production costs in other economies, so China’s rapid economic growth will not be beneficial for them. Overall, rapid economic growth in China will generate economic benefits and costs. The benefits make the growth desirable whereas the costs make it less so. It depends, therefore, whether the benefits outweigh the cost – if they do, economic growth is desirable. 34 GCE Economics Stretch and challenge answer Economic growth is the increase in a nation’s inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measured as the percentage change over a period of time, normally over a year. Whether rapid economic growth, such as that experienced in China, is desirable depends in part on the balance of the benefits and costs of economic growth but also on whether the perspective taken. Economic growth may be desirable for China, its consumers and its producers, but may have undesirable consequences for other national economies, the environment and the global economy. From China’s perspective, rapid economic growth will bring many significant benefits. GDP is a measure of the value of the goods and services produced by an economy. Rising real GDP will cause an increase, not just in the value of output, but also in the nation’s real income. Assuming no increase in population over the period of economic growth, the nation’s real GDP per capita will increase. As a result there will be an increase in the Chinese standard of living and material well-being. This is likely, in China’s case, to be accompanied by an increase in employment. Whilst economic growth does not necessarily imply economic development, real GDP per capita is an important component of measures of economic development such as the Human Development Index. Rising incomes (both for firms and workers) increases the tax take for the government. This will allow greater expenditure on a range of merit goods, public goods and goods and services with positive externalities. It would be possible, therefore, for the Chinese government to increase expenditure on health and education. In the longer term, this will bring benefits in terms of higher literacy and life expectancy. This will further raise China’s HDI. The extent to which growth is desirable, however, depends on whether the benefits of economic growth are widely spread amongst the population. Whilst some economists believe that growth benefits ‘trickle down’ to all, it is possible that the benefits are received by only a few. Rising GDP and rising income inequality would limit the extent of the benefit of rapid economic growth. For example, the benefits of economic growth might not reach the rural poor in China. Without active measures to redistribute income it may be that growth is only desirable for some. Growing affluence in urban areas may attract rural migrants putting pressure on urban infrastructure. The consequence may be that rapid economic growth brings with it environmental problems, creating negative externalities. The external costs of growth may be higher than the private costs of growth, resulting in economic inefficiencies. For economic growth to be truly desirable, therefore, it must also be sustainable. The extent to which Chinese growth is sustainable depends on the willingness of the Chinese authorities to intervene to internalise the negative externalities of growth, for example through making polluters pay for environmental damage caused. Rapid growth may also be unsustainable, and therefore undesirable, if the pace of growth exceeds the long term potential growth of the economy. The extent to which this is a problem depends on whether measures are put in place to increase the economy’s productive capacity, raising long run aggregate supply. China’s rapid economic growth brings opportunities and threats for the global economy too. The opportunities centre around the trade benefits for other economies as a result of rising aggregate demand in China. These may be limited, though, by an appreciation of China’s exchange rate or by restrictions on trade which make access to the Chinese market difficult. There may be global environmental problems resulting from higher demand for energy from the rapidly growing economy. Without global measures in place to price the environment, the benefits of rapid economic growth my be more illusory than real. In summary, there are clear benefits of rapid economic growth of an economy such as China. Whether growth is desirable, however, depends on ways of ensuring that the costs of economic growth are minimised relative to the benefits. This calls for government intervention by the Chinese authorities and for global action to ensure growth is environmentally sustainable. GCE Economics 35 Weak Candidates answer China is one of the fastest growing economies in the world today. All sort of products are now made in China, including lots of high tech goods such as electronics. Multinational companies are attracted to economies like China and India because of their cheap labour, so they are able to make higher profits. They employ lots of people too, which means that the Chinese people are much better off with rapid economic growth. More people employed means that there will be higher incomes in China, which increases the quality of life and the standard of living. It will left people out of poverty as they are able to earn high wages. Economic growth is caused by an increase in aggregate demand. This is made up of C+I+G+(X – M). So rapid economic growth will increase spending by consumers, giving them a higher standard of living and more income. Higher AD will result in higher GDP, which is a measure of a nation’s income, output or expenditure. The GDP per person will also be bigger and there will be less people in poverty or suffering from infant mortality. The government in China will be able to send more people to school, so more children will be able to read and write. The adult literacy rate will be higher. Rapid economic growth will reduce poverty in China – more people will be employed in industry and less people in agriculture which is a good sign of economic development. An economy is not developed if it has lots of people in subsistence agriculture, so by producing more output the Chinese economy will develop. Its HDI will increase because there is more output, better health and more literacy. Rapid economic growth is just what China needs to get better economically. It is now one of the economic super-powers, bigger than the US economy. Rapid economic growth brings more incomes, more jobs and less poverty and raises the standard of living. That’s why rapid economic growth is desirable – it means that economic development can happen quickly. 36 GCE Economics Question 2 (c) Comment on the obstacle faced by economies, such as China, in international trade. [10] Strong Candidates answer China faces a significant obstacle to international trade in the form of quotas on its exports to the EU. Quotas are not the only obstacle, though. Others include tariffs which raise the price of imports, state aid which tends to favour domestic producers and technical product standards which make it hard for countries to gain access to market abroad. In the diagram below we see the effect of both a quota and a tariff. The result of a quota is a reduction in the quantity demanded of textiles in the EU from Q4 to Q3 and EU suppliers are able to increase supply from Q1 to Q2. This is similar to the impact of a tariff of t which has the same impact on the EU market Such obstacles to S internation al trade are likely to create significant problems for an economy Pc(i) such as China. t Access to Pc internation al markets D is an important Quantity mechanis Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 m by which economic developme nt can be promoted. Low levels of economic development result in low levels of income. As a result of low incomes, the level of savings in the economy is low for any given rate of saving. Since domestic investment has to be financed from domestic savings, this will constrain investment in the capital stock and limit economic development. The Chinese economy would be unable to break out of this development trap if it faced obstacles to international trade on a large scale. International trade has acted as the engine for China’s economic development. Domestically, this is likely to impact on employment and incomes with an adverse effect on economic and human development. Price As a member of the WTO, China may be able to challenge the obstacles to international trade. However, the WTO rules allow countries to protect their domestic markets from low cost competition whilst they restructure the industries affected. It would appear that, whilst the EU is given time to adjust to increased global competition, China’s economic and human development must wait. Global trading rules seem to be biased against China. GCE Economics 37 Stretch and challenger answer Obstacle to international trade take many different forms. In the Extract material China is facing an obstacle imposed by the EU in the form of a quota. Other obstacles can include tariffs, state aid which subsidises domestic firms and laws which regulate what can be legally sold in a country. Developing economies, however, also face obstacles to international trade which are related to their level or stage of economic development. Barriers to international trade imposed by other countries work by raising the cost of imports as the diagram below shows. For example a quota of Q3 – Q2, raises the price of Chinese imports from Pc to Pc(i). As a result, there is a reduction in the quantity demanded of textiles in the EU from Q4 to Q3 and EU suppliers are able to increase supply from Q1 to Q2. This is similar to the impact of a tariff of t which has the same impact on the EU market. Tariff and non-tariff S barriers to trade are not the only obstacles to internation al trade faced by Pc(i) economies such as t China. Pc Developin g nations D also face obstacle Quantity which Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 result from within the economy. One example of these is the infant industry. An infant industry is typical in developing economies and arises when an industry lacks the economies of scale necessary to compete in global markets. The lack of economies of scale is related to the small size of the domestic market caused by a low level of income. It results in higher unit costs for the industry and a lack of price competitiveness. In addition, low levels of income in developing countries might also restrict the amount of finance available to industries which restricts investment. This lower level of investment is likely to have an impact on labour productivity and consequently unit labour costs. Alternatively it may result in the production of low quality output which is hard to sell abroad. This kind of obstacle makes it difficult for developing economies to diversify production into the secondary sector of the economy and compete on international markets. Price It may be argued that developing economies might overcome some of these obstacles, however, Trade negotiations can deliver results in reducing the obstacles faced by developing economies. This may require action by the WTO and could take considerable time. In some cases, some obstacles may be of advantage to developing economies. Quotas for example, by raising the price paid for imports, raise the value of trade. This may be a reason why limits on textile imports have been agreed by China, at least in the short term. It is hard to overcome infant industry inefficiencies without investment, although economies which have been able to attract foreign direct investment have been able to ‘import’ the investment needed to overcome the obstacles created by a low level of economic development. Multinational investment may also ‘open up’ international markets for developing economies, particularly where production is integrated globally. By allowing MNCs to take advantage of lower labour costs in developing nations, 38 GCE Economics assembly of semi-finished products can be exported to production facilities elsewhere in the world. It is less likely that developing economies face obstacles to trade where they enjoy a comparative advantage in production of certain commodities or some unique factor endowment, particularly in terms of natural resources such as mineral deposits. It is unlikely that developed nations will place restrictions on the import of commodities which they themselves are unable to produce. However, the capital requirements fro extraction may still create an obstacle to international trade. On top of this, basic commodity prices are notoriously volatile due to price inelasticities of demand and supply. In addition, low income elasticities of demand may result in a long term decline in the terms of trade for some economies who specialise in the production of such goods. This will create an obstacle to trade in that, over time, a greater volume of trade will be required to maintain export earnings. In summary, obstacles to trade can be both outside an economy’ control or result from a low level of development. The latter, though difficult to remove, can be tackled whereas the actions of other countries require political power to ‘negotiate away’ GCE Economics 39 Weak Candidates answer Extracts 4 and 5 show how Chinese exports to the EU are being limited by the use of quotas. These are an obstacle which China faces in international trade. A quota is a physical limit on the amount of a good or service which can be imported into a country. This limits the amount that China can export to the EU. As can be seen in the diagram below a quota restricts imports into the EU and pushes up the price of imports. EU consumers buy less Chinese textiles as a result. This makes it harder for Chinese firms to sell to the EU and is a barrier to international trade. A quota works a bit like a tariif. Less supply from China increases the price of textiles in the EU, so that demand is reduced. Firms in the EU are able to supply more. The effect is that there is less of the market for Chinese producers. Price S Quota Pc D Quantity In commentary this is bad news to the women who knit textiles in Zhuhangxi. The only way for them to export is by exporting to a third country. 40 GCE Economics Question 3 Discuss the extent to which China’s rapid economic development will impact on the global economy. [20] Strong Candidates answer Stretch and challenge extension shown by material in [brackets in italics and bold type] China’s rapid economic development will have a significant impact on the global economy. China can be categorised as a large under-developed economy with vast reserves of cheap labour and a government committed to the pursuit of rapid economic growth. It has become a major player in international markets since it joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO). From the perspective of the global economy, China’s rapid economic development represents a supply-side shock. The effect of China’s rapid development and its integration into the global economy will be that the world’s aggregate supply curve will shift to the right to AS1. The result is that world output will rise (to Y1) and there will be a fall in the average or general price level in the global economy (to P1). China’s rapid economic development will be, therefore, a significant boost to the global economy – it will stimulate economic growth and put downward pressure on inflation. This can best be seen in the way in which economies throughout the world, but particularly in the Price level THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AS AS1 P P1 AD Y Y1 Real GDP developed world, have benefited from cheaper imports from China. The influx of Chinese goods onto world markets represents an increase in global competition. This is likely to force existing firms to become more productively efficient, which will lead to improvements in the global allocation of resources. Again from a global point of view, China’s rapid economic development will lead to an increase in the gains from trade. Comparative advantage theory shows that specialisation and trade raises world output and allows countries to consume outside their production possibility frontier (PPF). Since China’s rapid economic development has been outward looking, these benefits have been shared globally. GCE Economics 41 [, although the distribution of these benefits may be unequal with some coutries benefiting more than others. This is especially true for countries which share a similar comparative advantage to China as they might lose out from China’s rapid economic development and huge export drive]. The benefits arise from China’s comparative advantage in labour intensive production, which it enjoys because of its endowment of large amounts of cheap labour. [The extent of these benefits, though, is difficult to determine as they will depend on the terms of trade – the ratio of export prices to import prices.] This positive view of the impact of China’s rapid economic development on the global economy can be challenged. The reason for China’s growth is not wholly down to its comparative advantage and factor endowment. The United States has complained that China has deliberately under-valued its exchange rate in order to promote its price competitiveness in the global economy. The argument is that China’s rapid economic development has been possible because of the large current account deficits on the balance of payments in the US. From this point of view, China’s rapid economic development has created big trade imbalances in the global economy. This could threaten global economic stability, as countries try to correct current account deficits by raising interest rates or dampening down on economic activity. It is also true that the increased global competition, which has come hand-in-hand with China’s rapid economic development, has caused a decline in manufacturing output and employment in the developed world. These negative impacts could be significant if the unemployment created turns out to be structural rather than frictional. [This is more likely to be a problem if the global economy enters a slowdown or recession as alternative employment will be limited. So long as the global economy continues to grow, employment opportunities in other sectors of developed economies will materialise. The extent of any problem of structural unemployment depends on the geographical and occupationally mobility, both of which can be improved by appropriate supply side policies. Economic change requires economies and labour markets to be dynamic and flexible to minimise the costs of change].The location of industry has been affected too, as companies in the developed world have re-located production to China in order to re-gain international competitiveness. In addition, the rapid growth in China has increased the demand for energy and put upward pressure on oil prices, raising production costs throughout the world. [Whilst some countries in the global economy are disadvantaged by rising commodity prices for others this will be an opportunity to gain higher export revenue and increase their own economic development. For other developing economies, China’s rapid economic development represents an increase in export opportunities]. In conclusion, it can be seen that China’s rapid economic development is likely to have both a beneficial and negative impacts on the global economy. The benefits of lower prices for consumers come at the cost of jobs, particularly in manufacturing industry in the developed world. [Overall, the extent of the impact is likely to be positive. Many of the negative effects reflect changes in the distribution of world output rather an overall decline. Economic theory would tend to support an increase in competition whether it be at the market or global level.] 42 GCE Economics Weak Candidates answer China’s rapid economic development has increased competition in global markets, such as the textile market. This has brought both threats and opportunities to firms in the global economy. The result has been that some textile companies such as Ulster Weavers have had to make staff redundant and close their production facilities. This is because the price of textiles has fallen and firms in Europe have found it difficult to remain competitive, at a time when their costs are rising. The loss in jobs will cause unemployment in Europe to rise. This could cause family problems and stress and an increase in crime. The government will have to spend more money on unemployment benefits, leading to a budget deficit. Workers are angry at the loss of jobs, which will cause a loss of motivation and production in firms hit by this increased competition. These things will have a negative impact on the economies of many countries, as the diagram below shows. As the rest of the world imports more from China there will be a reduction in aggregate demand in their economies. The AD curve shifts left and there is a reduction of output to Y1. With lower GDP there will be more people unemployed and a reduction in the standard of living. Price level AS AD AD1 Y1 GCE Economics Y Real GDP 43