Ana Maria Ramanath and Nigel Gilbert: The Design of Participatory Agent-Based Social Simulations
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©Copyright JASSS
Ana Maria Ramanath and Nigel Gilbert (2004)
The Design of Participatory Agent-Based Social Simulations
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 7, no. 4
<http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/4/1.html>
To cite articles published in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation , reference the above information and include paragraph numbers if
necessary
Received: 13-Jul-2003
Accepted: 21-Jul-2004
Published: 31-Oct-2004
Abstract
It is becoming widely accepted that applied social simulation research is more effective if
potential users and stakeholders are closely involved in model specification, design, testing and
use, using the principles of participatory research. In this paper, a review of software
engineering principles and accounts of the development of simulation models are used as the
basis for recommendations about some useful techniques that can aid in the development of
agent-based social simulation models in conjunction with users. The authors' experience with
scenario analysis, joint analysis of design workshops, prototyping and user panels in a
collaborative participatory project is described and, in combination with reviews from other
participatory projects, is used to suggest how these techniques might be used in simulationbased research.
Keywords:
Participatory Simulation, Software Methodologies, Development Techniques
Introduction
1.1
While agent-based social simulation as an approach to the understanding of social processes
and as a technique for creating tools to assist policy formation and evaluation has grown rapidly
over the last decade, there has been insufficient effort as yet to formalize, systematize and
communicate methods for developing useful social simulations (but see Gilbert and Troitzsch
1999; Suleiman, Troitzsch and Gilbert 2000; Barreteau and others 2003). This is especially true
of research that aims to involve stakeholders in the development of simulation models, using a
'participatory' approach in which users are involved in the design of the models from the earliest
stage (see Gilbert et al. 2002). A growing number of descriptions of such models are available,
some of which include reflections on how the models were designed and used, but much of this
work has proceeded by trial and error and the accumulated experience is somewhat fragmented
and anecdotal.
1.2
This paper begins to augment such methodological experience by examining the literature on
the development of complex software systems. There is a great deal more that can be learned
from the literature in software engineering about how to manage such participatory processes
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and, in particular, about techniques such as rapid iterative development and user workshops
that deserve to be more widely known within the social simulation community.
1.3
Drawing from methodological traditions in several research fields, several of these techniques
have been applied to a current European project called Simweb (http://www.simdigital.com).
The project uses agent-based simulation for exploring innovative e-business models in the
digital contents sector. The effect of the growth of e-business on the publishing and music
retailing sectors in Europe has been to open up new ways of doing business for publishers and
retailers. On-line delivery of news and music products to consumers has become possible, but
new questions about managing new classes of consumer, the appropriate legal and financial
infrastructures, intellectual property rights and discouraging fraud have to be tackled. Firms
entering this market have to create new business models, while the existing providers often find
themselves facing competitors whose activities are as yet little understood.
1.4
Section 2 of this paper reviews a sample of participatory simulation studies to extract common
methodological lessons that may be used as a starting point for future participatory simulation
projects. Section 3 examines the similarities between techniques for building participatory
simulations and other software and systems. In section 4, initial results from the Simweb
project are used to illustrate these techniques and section 5 offers some recommendations.
Lessons from Agent-based Participatory Social Simulation Studies
2.1
The more traditional way of doing social simulation (that is, researcher-centred) gives
stakeholders an essentially passive role. Stakeholders are those with a direct or indirect stake in
the outcomes of research projects (see Hare and Pahl-Wostl 2002; Estrella 2000). Stakeholders
may be researchers, management and decision-makers in organisations, policymakers (or their
representatives), etc. Without a greater involvement of clients (or end-users) in particular, as
Gilbert et al. (2002:2) argue: "...it is frequently the case that policy-makers dismiss academic
research as too theoretical, unrelated to the actual problems they are wrestling with, or in other
ways irrelevant to their concerns..."
2.2
User-centred social simulation allows stakeholders to rerun decisions made under differing
scenarios and environmental and strategic conditions (see for example, Bonabeau and Meyer
2001; Thesen and Travis 1995; Hannon and Ruth 2001). This can provide support for decision
making in a relatively cost effective way (Wickenberg and Davidsson 2002). The use of scenarios
as a technique that enhances understanding of tasks and communication among stakeholders is
also receiving increasing attention in the neighbouring field of systems/software engineering
(see for example, Sampaio et al. 2000; Zhu and Jin 2000). For the purposes of this paper, usercentred simulation and participatory simulation can be considered synonymous. To achieve
more end-user involvement, participatory simulation draws on ideas from two areas. First, it
borrows techniques from approaches variously labelled interactive social science, participatory
methods, integrated assessment, and action research (see Gilbert et al. 2002). Secondly, it
makes use of games as a strategic technique to achieve requirement and knowledge elicitation
from end-users, model testing by users and even end-user training (Colella et al. 1998).
2.3
A number of previous studies, including d'Aquino et al. (2002), Gilbert et al. 2002), Barreteau et
al. (2001); Lynam et al. (2002), Bousquet el al. (2002) and Purnomo et al. (2002), that have
adopted a participatory simulation approach have been reviewed to identify methodological
lessons. Other literature that examines the methodology of participatory related simulations
was also reviewed, including Parunak et al. (1998); Terna (1998); Parker and Swatman (1999);
Asakawa and Gilbert (2002) and Hare et al. (2001). The main conclusion that can be drawn from
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these studies is that participatory approaches need to allow for iteration, collaboration and
exploration of alternative scenarios. Table 1 brings together some of the comments made in
these studies about critical aspects of the simulation development process.
Table 1: Advice from previous studies on practice in developing
participatory simulations
Stakeholders
Participatory agent-based simulations are useful for the
exploration of scenarios involving multiple stakeholders (see
Parunak et al. 1998; Purnomo et al. 2002; Hare et al. 2001;
Gilbert et al. 2002; d'Aquino et al. 2002; Lynam et al. 2002;
Barreteau et al. 2001).
Effective communication between stakeholders and putting
decision-making into the hands of stakeholders are key for
collaboration throughout all of the stages of participatory
projects. However, stakeholders need to be aware of the
tangible and intangible costs and benefits of cooperating
(see Purnomo et al. 2002; d'Aquino 2002; Lynam et al.
2002)
Lack of motivation can result in stakeholders losing interest
or even dropping out of a project. A good structure,
organisation and a certain degree of formality of activities
contribute to maintaining stakeholder motivation throughout
projects. As Barreteau et al. (2001:11) argue, during roleplaying, for example, the focus needs to be on achieving a
balance "between the extremes of a 'stage' play (if the
sessions are too slow, or the players too neutral), and too
much uncontrolled drift". Other factors favouring motivation
reported in the literature (Asakawa and Gilbert, 2002;
Gilbert et al. 2002; Hare et al. 2001; d'Aquino et al. 2002;
Barreteau et al. 2001) include good time management, a
desire to learn among stakeholders, and user-friendly
software interfaces (where applicable).
Achieving the 'right mix' of stakeholders for these projects is
important. Stakeholder/player homogeneity needs to be
taken into account too, as the mixing of superiors and
subordinates may at times be problematic (Parker and
Swatman 1999; Hare et al. 2001; Asakawa and Gilbert 2002;
d'Aquino et al. 2002; Bousquet et al. 2002; Barreteau et al.
2001).
Design
There can be a number of sources of bias and data problems
in the design process. Irvine et al. (1998), for example, list
29 possible sources of what the authors call "judgemental
biases" grouped into three main categories: biases related to
data (e.g. adjusting and anchoring; availability;
conservatism; data saturation; spurious cues etc.); biases
related to decision-makers (e.g. desire for self-fulfilling
prophecies, expectations, fact value confusion; habit;
hindsight, wishful thinking etc.); and decision-maker use of
data (data presentation context, law of small numbers,
representativeness etc.).
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In the design of Internet-mediated simulations (e.g. games)
aspects such as: synchronicity (of play), support for technical
or training problems, security (copyright, passwords, login
names) and communication (sensitivity to cultural and
language differences, sharing of sensitive data/information),
are important for designers to consider. With regards to
synchronicity, decisions about, for instance, how
participants in different locations and time schedules will
play with each other (e.g. over the Internet, or via videoconferencing, or person-to-person, etc.) need to be made
early (see Asakawa and Gilbert 2002).
Tools
The use of high level, structured programming tools assists
in publishing simulation results and aids replication. These
high level tools (for a review, see Tobias and Hofman 2004),
can help to make writing the software easier and less prone
to error (Terna 1998).
Using programming languages such as Java and running the
resulting simulation software as applets on client machines
may place great demands on these machines and can make
maintenance of the code tricky. With recent Web-enabled
languages (such as PHP) that make it easier to generate web
pages dynamically, all the code remains on the server. This
can also have advantages for inter-player communication
during gaming simulations, for example, because all players'
actions are stored on the server for later analysis (see Gilbert
et al. 2002).
Another tool that has been used for building multi-agent
based applications is XML (Extensible Mark-up Language).
XML is an open standard for the representation of
information that can be processed by machines and read by
people. It supports data representations in a way that is
generic enough and yet sufficiently feature-rich to allow for
a range of concepts to be modeled. It also allows
information to be stored in structured files and ported
across different platforms (see Erl 2004).
Evaluation
There can be significant differences between simulation
results and reality. This can be due to software errors, but
also to omission of key (social) aspects during the initial
conceptualisation and modeling stages (see Purnomo et al.
2002; Edmonds and Hales 2003).
The potential for undesirable as well as desirable results in
multi-agent based simulations can be a side effect of
emergent behaviour that arises as a result of interactions
between the system components (see Bousquet et al. 2002;
Kearney and Merlat 1999). This can pose a problem for the
more engineering-oriented simulation researchers. As
Edmonds and Hales (2003) point out: "If we are to be able to
trust the simulations we use, we must independently
replicate them. An unreplicated simulation is an
untrustworthy simulation".
Parker and Swatman (1999) suggest that simplified
documentation which places emphasis on a step-by-step,
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rather than an explanatory approach, can reduce the time
and costs associated with activities such as training,
briefing/debriefing, role-playing, and dissemination of
results; and, that use of email as a tool for communication
and as substitute for certain types of detailed documents
has been effective. However, those authors also conclude
that, despite the benefits of using the Web, stakeholders
continue to favour face-to-face communication, particularly
for briefing and debriefing purposes.
2.4
The stages of an iterative research process (Conceptualisation, Design, Construction, and
Evaluation) are carried out in most published simulation models. There is, however, another
stage of the process that is less often performed although it also needs to be considered, that
is, replication (see for example, Gilbert and Troitzsch 1999; Axelrod 1997). Replication means
confirming that the claimed results of any given simulation are reliable, in the sense that they
can be reproduced by anyone. However, replication that involves literal reconstruction of the
same simulation using the same programming infrastructure has the disadvantage that
unacknowledged assumptions built into the original version can be reproduced in the replication
and are not therefore tested. A better technique may involve docking, the construction of a
conceptually identical simulation using different tools and even different methodology (Hales,
Rouchier and Edmonds 2003).
Bringing together Techniques from the fields of Social Simulation and Software
Engineering
3.1
The steps involved in participatory simulation projects (that is, conceptualisation, design,
construction and evaluation) are not dissimilar to the development stages of software (or
systems) engineering projects. Some software engineering techniques which may be valuable in
simulation research include: structured workshops with users; formal or informal stakeholder
interviewing and prototyping.
3.2
However, although software engineering methods have evolved to increase stakeholder
participation, some of the methods probably originated from the social sciences, where
structured group processes in which participants play an active role and articulate their
knowledge, values and preferences have been evolving for nearly a century (see for example,
van Asselt et al. 2001; Estrella 2000; Vennix 1998; Chambers 2002). A review of simulation
literature revealed some useful and detailed advice for exploration, involving stakeholders in
situations where the target reality is messy or complex. As such, the software engineering
community may benefit from new developments taking place in this area of social science
research. The use of scenarios as a technique that enhances understanding of tasks and
communication among stakeholders, for example, is receiving increasing attention in the
software engineering field (see Sampaio et al. 2000; Zhu and Jin 2000).
3.3
From a review of software and simulation literature, four techniques were found to have value in
helping to understand and refine user requirements and in developing a foundation for the
simulation model(s) during the Simweb project. These techniques, namely, scenario analysis,
joint application design workshops, prototyping and user panels are described next.
Scenario Analysis
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3.4
Scenario analysis is an interactive process in which a group is engaged in a process of
identifying key issues and creating and exploring scenarios, in order to learn about the external
environment and to integrate insights into the decision-making of the organisation. The freeformat approach enables the exchange and synthesis of ideas and encourages creative thinking
(van Asselt et al. 2001). 'Scenarios' are connected statements that paint a broad but relatively
shallow picture of possible futures (Gilbert et al. 1998). According to van Asselt et al. (2001),
the first step in the process of scenario analysis is the identification of key issues or questions
relevant to the organisation(s), or project and the time frame associated with the focal issue(s).
This is followed by brainstorming exercises to expose ideas associated with the relevant issues.
Also, the involvement of decision-makers in the scenario creation and exploration process may
be limited to a single interview, but it can also involve participating in workshops that may run
for several days at a time. These scenario workshops may involve the use of software (e.g.
prototypes) as a facility for group support. As a follow up to the workshops (or interviews), there
should be a period of reflection, writing up the scenarios and exploring their implications (van
Asselt et al. 2001:15,16).
3.5
Foresight (Gilbert et al. 1998) is one type of strategic scenario exploration process that could be
useful at the outset of a participatory project. Scenario analysis could also be used during the
evaluation phase of participatory simulations in the form of round-table discussions with users
in order to help them elucidate plausible, innovative alternative futures based on the results of
many simulation runs.
Joint Application Design Workshops
3.6
JAD workshops (or sessions) are one type of user-oriented participatory workshop aimed at the
initial phases of a software development project. Martin and Odell (1996) describe in
considerable detail the various types of workshops that are possible (for example: 'Joint
Enterprise Modeling', or JEM; 'Joint Requirements Planning', or JRP; etc.). The workshops vary in
duration and scope depending upon the complexity of the requirements, the availability of key
stakeholders, etc. (Martin 1991). The authors offer suggestions on how to organise them
(location, equipment, participant selection, training), control them (conflict management,
documentation), and moderate them (duration, dynamics).
3.7
JAD is very useful for the discussion of more technical issues aided by the use of prototypes and
also as a side effect contributes to user computer literacy (Martin 1991). JAD sessions typically
last three to five days depending upon the complexity and novelty of the requirements. Martin
and Odell (1996) offer guidelines on how to set-up and conduct JAD sessions, including sample
agendas and questions for such meetings. When issues come up during the workshops that
cannot be resolved, they recommend that such problems are declared as "open issue(s)", and
that a scribe (or note-taker) should note the issue number, issue name, person assigned to
resolve the issue, date for resolution and description. JAD may therefore be a useful technique
during model design in participatory simulations. The literature stresses the importance of a
skilled facilitator for these sessions. Facilitators are expected to have excellent communication
skills, be impartial, unbiased and neutral, be good at conducting meetings, have negotiating
skills and be diplomatic (Martin and Odell 1996).
Prototyping
3.8
Prototyping is a firmly established technique in software engineering, although going under a
variety of different names. For example, in the Extreme Programming methodology (or XP) it is
referred to as a 'spike' (see Wells 2001). Also, methodologies employ prototyping to different
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degrees. In the Rational Unified Process methodology (or RUP) an 'executable architectural
prototype' is considered an important output of the construction phase (see Jacobson et al.
1999). Prototyping can be employed in several phases of the software life cycle for building a
quick and (if need be) rough version of a desired software product or parts of a system (see for
example, Agresti 1986, Martin 1991). During design it can be used to develop screens, dialogs
and reports to conform to user requirements (for discussion during workshops with end-users,
for example); and during construction prototyping may speed up the iterative cycles of software
enhancements (particularly in situations where users are unsure of what they want) (Martin and
Odell 1996). Depending on the chosen purpose, prototypes can either evolve continuously until
eventually they become the final software product, or in a step-by-step fashion in which they
are discarded after every step (Pressman 1994; Brooks 1995>; Martin and Odell 1996). In line
with the advice in the software engineering literature, it is recommended that prototyping may
be used often and from the start in participatory simulation projects.
User Panels
3.9
The Freshwater Integrated Resource Management with Agents (FIRMA) project
(seehttp://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk/firma) has used panels of stakeholder representatives to
evaluate design proposals and this is a technique that may also be useful for many participatory
simulation projects. Potential users of the simulation software are gathered around a table and
the software is demonstrated to them. The panel is then asked to discuss it, and the resulting
interaction is videotaped for later analysis. The approach is similar to using a focus group (and
the procedures for running the panel are similar), but differs in that the group is responding to
the software as a 'stimulus' for their discussion. A similar format can be used for de-briefing
sessions when several users have tried the software - it may be better to have group debriefing sessions than individual ones. It is envisaged that this technique may be useful during
the evaluation phase of participatory simulation projects because the comments from users are
likely to be much more revealing and helpful than could be obtained from, for example, a
structured evaluation form.
Modelling the European Digital Contents Market
4.1
The Simweb project has used the four techniques outlined in the previous section in the
development of two participatory simulations, one modelling the development of online news
and the other, online music. In the paragraphs that follow, some results of using such
techniques during the initial iterative cycles of simulation build and evaluation are presented.
Model Conceptualisation: Scenario Analysis(es)
Goal:
Structure:
Workshop(s) to explore future possibilities by developing
scenarios
Half-day workshop with agenda and minutes
Literature review about the state-of-the-art of the online news
and music sectors
Participants: Researchers and Board representatives from end-user
organisations (between 10 and 12 people per session)
Outputs:
Summary report; video and audio recording of the meeting
Inputs:
4.2
The Scenario workshops contributed to a better understanding of the social, technological,
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economic, environmental and political factors affecting the sectors in which the end-user
organisations operate (e.g. newspapers in the online news sector, music retailers, etc.).
However, the prior commitments of some of the Board members prevented them from
participating for the full duration of the workshop. While they found the exercise interesting,
immediate operational issues were of much higher priority.
Model Design: JAD Workshop(s)
Goal:
Workshop for software conceptualisation and design that
involves both developers and end-users
Structure:
Day workshops with agenda, minutes, presentations by
participants (as starting points for some of the topics for group
discussion) and use of visual aids (e.g. flipcharts) for team
design/brainstorming
Inputs:
Executive summaries or reports resulting from the previous
scenario analysis. Brief, initial descriptions of the online news
and music markets derived from literature reviews, face-toface or telephone interviews with market players, survey data
analysis, etc.
Rough (prototype) software design. The prototype was
presented to the JAD audience for feedback as a presentation
from a projected laptop
Participants: End-users representing the sectors and developers (between 7
and 10 people)
Outputs:
An initial list of the main entities (whether animate or
inanimate) which will make up the model structure (e.g.
software agents: key attributes and properties, their
interactions, etc.)
4.3
The JAD workshops were useful for the learning and exchange of ideas between partners with
different technical expertise (for example, software developers and news media). As the project
evolved, participants engaged in additional face-to-face meetings between research partners
and increased telephone, email and web-based communications among research team
members. One problem was the learning required of those who needed to grasp specialist
aspects of the development starting with very little previous knowledge (e.g. about agent-based
simulation, industry sectors, IT platform and tools, etc.).
Model Construction: Prototyping
Goal:
Structure:
Inputs:
Building a quick and rough version of a desired
software/system involving designers and end-users
The number of software developers involved in prototyping
tends to vary depending upon the size and needs of each
project. In Simweb's case, for example, the prototypes were
built by small teams (3 to 5 software developers) based at
different locations.
Reports and software releases derived from previous activities
(e.g. scenario analysis, JAD meetings, emails, surveys, web site
documentation, etc.), but mainly the initial model structure,
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draft simulation software requirements, and initial software
prototype releases.
Participants: Simulation designers and developers with input from relevant
stakeholders (researchers, end-users)
Outputs:
Up-to-date prototype software release. Prototypes are
functional software but with an incomplete model and reduced
features. They may or may not evolve into the final simulation
software product as required by stakeholders. The software
may consist of, for example, of a graphical input/output
interface plus a core background application.
4.4
With regards to prototyping, 'quick' software releases can provide a tangible basis for
discussion about requirements and features among team members. This, combined with the
less formalised, rapid development environment of a small team of developers can encourage
frequent face-to-face communications. In Simweb, the proximity of developers at times
resulted in the use of simpler, low tech design tools (e.g. pen-and-paper, blackboard, etc.), but
email, instant messaging and video conferencing were also used.
4.5
The rapid prototyping cycles in Simweb each lasted approximately 12 weeks (including software
design, coding and testing). But it is expected that as the requirements become clearer and the
software more robust, the design/build cycles will take longer to complete (around six months).
That is, the software build activity then becomes a more 'top-down' activity, because the
previous prototypes provide a more useful tool for discussion among developers and endusers.
4.6
Partitioning the prototyping tasks amongst partners in different locations led to some software
integration issues. The speed at which the initial prototypes are built (combined with the
learning curve with technical aspects and difficulties in pinning down software requirements)
also led to lack of time for thorough software testing and more need for software 'debugging'.
Also, the focus of rapid prototyping on programming activities left developers little time to
produce software documentation. In Simweb's case, for example, given the rapid iterative
approach, it became difficult for the small team of developers to produce relevant (software and
end-user) documentation (e.g. detailed requirements and design specifications, test
specifications, tutorials, etc.). However, some UML (Unified Modelling Language, Jacobson et al.
1999) descriptions are being used by prototype developers to represent objects/agents in more
recent software iterations.
Evaluation: User Panel
Goal:
Structure:
Demonstration and discussion among developers and users
Inputs:
Prototype software presentation(s) by relevant stakeholders
A full day meeting with agenda and minutes. Given time
constraints and a need to capture as much feedback from endusers as possible during these panel meetings, roles were
assigned to participants prior to these meetings (e.g. chair/time
keeping, facilitator, minute-taker).
A list of unresolved issues usually provided by the prototype
developers (e.g. behavioural rules for the agent-based
software; software implementation issues, data related issues,
etc.)
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Participants: Between 10 and 12 people including representatives from all
the research partners, and representatives from end-user
organisations
Outputs:
Hand-written (or electronic) notes about software refinements
required based mainly on user feedback
4.7
During User Panel meetings, prototype presentations by technology partners (and the
discussions which follow) assisted participants to understand better what to expect as an
outcome from the simulation modelling process. Hands-on demonstrations (with real data) of
prototype software can help users assess the usability and functionality aspects of the software
more effectively. Following the User panel, additional face-to-face meetings between partners
may be required in order to refine software requirements prior to further iterative simulation
development cycles.
Conclusion
5.1
This paper has offered an initial set of techniques and ideas for the development of
participatory agent-based social simulation. It has done this by drawing on the extensive
literature on methodologies to be found within the field of software engineering and on the
much rarer accounts of how existing social simulation models have been developed. An
illustration of the use of these techniques in the Simweb project on business strategies for
digital online media were presented. Overall, the participatory simulation approach has proved
useful as a research design strategy for Simweb. In particular, it has contributed to the detailed
planning and conduct of tasks and as such it has been a useful guide for the project
management and researchers. However, it is not possible to compare the progress of the project
with what might have happened if a less participatory approach had been taken, or if the
methods that were used had not been adopted, since we only have the one history of the
project and no control case study. It is our impression that it was easier to motivate all the
partners to engage with the project because their participation is so clearly a central part of the
project work. But we cannot tell whether, without the participation, the development might have
been more straightforward or efficient.
5.2
It is for this reason that the methods and techniques suggested in this paper should be
regarded at this stage as hypotheses: it seems plausible that adopting some of these techniques
could enhance the quality and effectiveness of social simulation models, but the community
does not yet have enough experience and has not yet devoted sufficient effort to recording and
synthesizing that experience to be sure that these techniques do work as one might expect. In
this respect, this paper is merely a start and much remains to be done if we are to understand
clearly how to build participatory agent-based models so that we are able to pass on our
expertise to those who come after.
Acknowledgements
The study has been conducted as part of a European Union supported project, Simweb, contract
IST-2001-34651.
The authors are indebted to the anonymous reviewers of the article for their suggestions and to
all the members of the project, who not only provided the inspiration for using rapid
prototyping, but also consented to be guinea pigs, being observed as subjects for our study
while wrestling with the trials of gathering data in a fast moving business sector which changed
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as we studied it, and also producing complex software to schedule. The following in particular
contributed to this study: Kornelia van der Beek, Mary Ebeling, Cornelia Krüger, Barbara Llacay,
Maite López, Xavier Noria, Gilbert Peffer, Stephan Schuster, Paula Swatman and Miguel Varela.
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