Effects of Syrian Refugee Crisis on Turkey
Riddhi Chopravisibility
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— Since the outbreak of Syrian war in 2011, an estimated 9 million Syrians have fled their homes, taking shelter in neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and other European Union nations. As a result of Turkey's " open door policy " , it is now hosting refugees more than its critical threshold which led to a huge economic stemming and is impacting the country socially, ethically, economically and culturally. With limited assistance provided by the international community, Turkey is now struggling to cope with the growing numbers. The paper intends to provide a profound analysis on how the displacement crisis has impacted Turkey and its shift on the refugee policies in order to encompass long term solutions.
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DEMOGRAPHICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYRIAN REFUGEE POPULATION AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND MUNICIPALITY SERVICES IN TURKEY IN NEAR FUTURE
Effects of Syrian Refugee Crisis on Turkey
Riddhi Chopra
School of Liberal Studies, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University
[email protected].
Abstract— Since the outbreak of Syrian war in 2011, an estimated 9 million Syrians have fled their homes, taking shelter in neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and other European Union nations. As a result of Turkey’s “open door policy”, it is now hosting refugees more than its critical threshold which led to a huge economic stemming and is impacting the country socially, ethically, economically and culturally. With limited assistance provided by the international community, Turkey is now struggling to cope with the growing numbers. The paper intends to provide a profound analysis on how the displacement crisis has impacted Turkey and its shift on the refugee policies in order to encompass long term solutions.
Keywords— Turkey, Syrian war, refugees, open door policy, impact
INTRODUCTION
Since the Syrian crisis began in 2011, Turkey established an “open door policy” assuming the conflict would come to a swift conclusion earning Turkey worldwide recognition for its humanitarian action and influence in a reformed Syria. Later in 2014, Turkey witnessed an unprecedented increase in asylum applications from Iraq due to ISIS territorial gains in the region; as a result Turkey now also accommodates 100,000 Iraqi refugees However, as the conditions deteriorated in Syria, the number of refugees skyrocketed and reached 1.7 million as of March, 2015 and the significant unregistered refugee population implies that the true figure is even larger [1].. Turkey maintained an emergency response of a consistently high standard and declared a temporary protection regime, ensuring non-refoulement and assistance in 25 camps, where an estimated 1.8 million people are staying at a monthly cost of $2 million [2]. Five southern Turkish provinces bordering Syria—Gaziantep, Hatay, Kilis, Mardin, and Sanliurfa—where 622,864 of the 747,000 registered refugees are concentrated, collectively host 83% of Turkey’s registered Syrian refugees [3]. The escalating number of refugees in Turkey has aggravated a range of social, cultural, political and economic nuances thus impacting the country’s economy. Large swaths of Syria being under ISIS control and without any unified and credible opposition capable of overthrowing the Assad regime guarantees that the inflow rate is bound to increase [4].
Implications for the region
Turkey now faces social, demographic, ethnic, and sectarian
pressure created by the largest refugee flow in the country’s modern history [3].
Social
Turkey provided free access to health care to all registered refugees and built camps that have been internationally recognised, jeopardized country’s fiscal sustainability. More than 500,000 people have been sent to hospitals from the refugee camps and, according to the Ministry of Health, nearly 35,000 Syrians have given birth in Turkey. The citizens have expressed their disappointment as all the public revenue gets exhausted in providing the services and undermines their access. Moreover the camps have also witnessed increase in divorce rate, polygamy, child marriage, prostitution, which is affecting the social atmosphere.
Shift in ethnic composition
The refugee presence is altering the ethnic and sectarian balance of the region. For instance, Kilis’s Arab population, previously less than 1%, has now jumped to a whopping 59%. The ethnic transformation adjoins a political dimension in Hatay, where the Alawites dominate; constituting one-third of the province’s population and supporting Assad’s regime, but the entry of Sunni refugees is disturbing the balance, potentially sparking a Sunni-Alawaite conflagration. Moreover the Alawites are critical of AKP’s (Justice and Development Party) policy on the displacement crisis which has given rise to numerous rallies and demonstration leading to instability in the region.
The Alevis, constitute about 15% of the total population, share similar secular attitude towards Sunni refugees and staunchly oppose the AKP’s policies over its stance on Syria, by supporting the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Alevis, Alawite resentment towards the AKP was further inflamed by the crackdown of Gezi protests in Istanbul, June, 2013, and the ripple effects demonstrations across Turkey.
Economic impact
The growth rate of the Turkish economy during the initial stages of crisis was 9%, but with the upsurge in refugees it has fallen below 3%, which made financing the crisis an arduous task. The crisis has drained the Turkish economy as most of the revenue gets exhausted in the upkeep of camps and providing other services. Also the gap in demand and supply led to inflation thereby raising the cost of living and consequently generated antipathy among the locals. Besides, most of the refugees are employed in the informal sector, work for lower wages, generate no revenue and as a result, usurp job opportunities from the Turks. With the closing of border, exports have decreased and so has investment.
Housing
During the preliminary stages of the crisis, refugees were mostly housed in schools, sports halls, warehouses and factories to isolate them from the locals. However, as the numbers plummeted, the Disaster and Emergency Management Agency (AFAD) of Turkey was assigned the task of constructing camps. By Oct 2013, 21 camps were erected. By Aug 2015, 4 more camps were built to accommodate Christian and Yazidi refugees escaping the ISIS ambush, but due to the acceleration un numbers, AFAD were left helpless[6], [1]. Due to camp’s shrinking capacity many refugees are now taking shelters in urban setting, as a result unplanned structures have been constructed which has been a source of growing hostility between the refugees and host community.
Employment
With their savings depleting, Syrians are forced to find employment – often in informal sectors due to legal restrictions. Those working in informal sectors are exposed to exploitation owing to their illegal status. Those left jobless, either turn into pro-Assad militants or join Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS in a hope to earn and reintegrate into the society [7].
The Kobane crisis
The crisis over the beleaguered Syrian city of Kobane, lead to increased scrutiny of Turkey’s policy towards Syria. The ruthless attacks initiated by ISIS against the Kurds in Kobane in October 2014 led to another big wave of Syrian refugees flooding the nation, inciting the Kurds in Turkey to join the PYD (Democratic Union Party) forces in their fight against ISIS. Turkey has been severely criticised for not intervening during the conflict in Kobane. Though there are various reasons cited; one of them being both the sides engaged in violence were terrorist organisations. While on the other hand, hard liners press that with the general elections in 2015, ruling party AKP wasn’t in strong favour to supporting the PKK (Kurdistan Worker’s Party) openly. Turkey’s reluctance in responding to the crisis in Syria, led to country-wide rallies and protests where ultimately people lost faith in the government.
International Reaction
As the displacement crisis gained unprecedented momentum and the prospects of return dimmed, Turkey sought support for burden-sharing from the international community for financial assistance and resettlement purpose.
The establishment of International refugee system was based on the shared understanding that assisting the refugees and the host country would be the responsibility of every nation. . The U.S. administration has shied away from intervening in Syria to bring about regime change and instead has increasingly focused on defeating ISIS, so far with no major impact. Iran and Russia continue to prop up the Syrian regime [4].
Also sharing the cost of protecting the refugees has been disappointingly limited. The Turkish government as of Aug 2015, had spent between $ 5.6 to 6.0 billion for the refugees and in return has received minimal international assistance amounting to less than $ 400 million.
United Nations
The UN Security Council seemingly paralyzed has failed to find any resolution to the crisis. It has struggled to fund and provide humanitarian assistance to the host countries. Less than two-thirds of the 2014 aid budget for Syrian refugee crisis was met, while in August 2015 the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan (3RP) for 2015-16 that budgeted for $624 million, still remained unfunded by more than 60% [8]. UN High Commissioner for Refugees made over 10,000 places available for the resettlement, an amount corresponding to less than 3% of the overall refugees.
Safe zones
Turkey has previously pushed the idea of safe zones along the Turkish borders so as to reduce the burden on the government. Turkey and the US have come to an understanding, but it appears that the latter is more interested in establishing a ‘No ISIS zone’ than safe zones for refugees.
European Union
EU is pressurizing Turkey to patrol its coastline, to restrict the flow of refugees who reach Europe via Turkey. Recent EU Summit in Brussels, Oct, 2015 agreed to provide Turkey with $3 billion and prospects of visa free travel for Turks in Europe. Turkey also pushed EU to reconsider its long pending membership.
Syrian Peace process
UN Security Council, endorsing the Vienna Process unanimously passed a transition plan for formal talks between Syrian government and the opposition on 18th Dec, 2015.
Initiatives by Turkey
The Syrian refugee crisis has pushed Turkey to reassess its legal framework for asylum and International protection and to accelerate pre-existing reforms. Turkey lifted the 1951 Geneva Convention, which limits asylum rights to Europeans.
Turkey revised its “Settlement law of 2006” which promotes the settlement of ‘Turkish origin, descent and culture’ According to the new law, non-European refugees who enter Turkey can legally receive a temporary residence permit in any province other than Hatay (sectarian tensions being high) and Sirnak (violence issues and deep poverty). The Foreigners and International Protection, passed in 2013, first implemented in April 2014 is aimed at improving Turkey’s refugee policy and protecting asylum seekers, creating a specialized institution—the Directorate General of Migration Management, under the Ministry of Interior—to implement related laws [9].
Temporary Protection Regulation came into effect on Oct 22, 2014, to create an effective legal system that will provide Syrian refugees with satisfactory protection and humanitarian assistance. The TP Circular also gives the right to registered refugees to seek legal employment. Negotiations to open parts of the economy for formal employment have been on the table, so that the refugees can increase their net fiscal contribution to the host economy. Without a chance to education, the youth stands at a risk of falling victim to radical and terrorist groups. Schools for Syrian refugees have been opened by local authorities in many South Eastern provinces and Istanbul. The Turkish and Foreign Languages Research and Application Centre (TOMER) at the University of Gaziantep provides Turkish language course in twelve refugee camps. Even outside the refugee camps, many youth centres provide a three-month course to Syrian refugees between the ages of 12-22. Moreover the Government decided to grant scholarships to many Syrian university students to promote education [10].
CONCLUSION
Syria crisis is now considered to be the worst exodus of all times. Syrian economy having crumbled by more than 50% since the conflict began, hence, even if the political disturbance settles, the refugees might not return. Thus it is inevitable that most of the refugees are likely to stay in Turkey, so the government and International community must make arrangements accordingly.
With AKP’s clear majority during the recent election in Nov, 2015, it can create comprehensive policies to guide the integration process and mobilize public support for the same, which needs to go beyond the TP circular. Ankara needs to relax its limitations regarding INGO International Non-Government organisation) activity on its soil when it faces the prospect of permanent settlement by refugees. Turkey should strictly supervise the entry of refugees and differentiate between refugee fleeing wars and economic migrants. Rapid integration of refugees into labour market is important.
It is necessary that the international community engages itself by offering monetary assistance and facilitates the provision for education and employment. The World Humanitarian summit, 2016 would provide Turkey a platform to seek monetary assistance and push the idea of safe havens – based on Northern Iraqi safe haven created in 1991. Turkey can also call EU to reassess its membership in return for strict control over the refugees moving towards Europe.
Knowing that Russia has a strategic interest in Syria, and is backing Assad diplomatically and militarily, Turkey must take a cautious, tolerant yet proactive approach in its dealings with Russia.
REFERENCES
Ahmet Icduygu, April 2015, Migration policy institute, Syrian refugees in Turkey: the long road ahead
[2] The UN Refugee Agency, 2015 UNHCR country operation profile- Turkey, Overview
[3] Soner Gacaptay, July 2014, Bilge Meneske, The Washington Institute For Near East Policy, The impact of Syria’s refugees on Southern Turkey, Introduction
[4] Kemal Krisici, Elicabeth Ferris, Brookings Institute, Not likely to go home- Syrian refugees and the challenges to Turkey- and the international community
[5] Soner Gacaptay, July 2014, Bilge Meneske, The Washington Institute For Near East Policy, The impapct of Syria’s refugees on Southern Turkey, Shift in ethnic balance of border province
[6] Erdoğan, 2015b, p. 43-70, op cit endnote 42
[7] Mona Alami, Aug 7, 2015, Al-Monitor, “NGO finds work for Syrian refugees in Turkey,”
[8] UNHCR, Aug 24, 2015, “3RP Funding Update 2015” and UN OCHA Financial Tracking Service, “Total Funding to the Syria Crisis 2014,”
[9] Bulent Sarioglu, April 5, 2013, Hurriyet “190 bin Suriyeliye yeni statü,”
[10] Anadolu Agency, Oct 24, 2013, “Suriyeli siginmaci genclere sinavsiz universite,”
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