The Neutral Level of NGDP and the NGDP Gap: Q1 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

The nominal GDP (NGDP) gap, a measure of unexpected changes in the dollar size of the US economy, is calculated as the percentage difference between the actual and the neutral levels of NGDP. The neutral level of NGDP, in turn, is a sum of all dollar incomes expected by households and businesses coming into a specific time period and is created using data from consensus forecasts. In the third quarter of 2021, the median NGDP gap rose to 0.70 percent, up from the previous quarter's value of −0.02 percent. The 0.70 percent NGDP gap means that the dollar size of the economy, $23.17 trillion, was close to the expected $23.01 trillion. Moreover, the 10th and 90th percentiles of the NGDP gap show that

Economic Growth eJournal, 2020

One of the most important questions facing the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also one of the hardest for it to answer: What is the current stance of monetary policy? The answer to this question is straightforward in theory, but is quite challenging to apply in practice. Despite many valiant efforts by central bankers, academics, and market participants, there is still a lot of uncertainty in real time about whether monetary policy is too tight, too loose, or just about right. This policy brief attempts to add some clarity to this question by providing a new measure of the stance of monetary policy.<br><br>This policy brief specifically shows how to construct a benchmark growth path for nominal GDP (NGDP) where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Deviations of actual NGDP from this neutral level of NGDP provide a way to assess the stance of monetary policy. These deviations, called the NGDP gap, can be used by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as...

2011

olicymakers use various indicators of economic activity to assess economic conditions and set an appropriate stance for monetary policy. A key challenge for policymakers is finding indicators that give a clear and accurate signal of the state of the economy in real time-that is, at the time policy is actually made. Unfortunately, most indicators are initially estimated based on incomplete information and subsequently revised as more information becomes available. Moreover, some indicators are based on economic concepts that are not directly observable. Two indicators of economic activity often used to guide monetary policy are the output gap and the growth rate of real GDP. The output gap measures how far the economy is from its full employment or "potential" level. The output gap is a noisy signal of economic activity, however, because it depends on potential GDP, which is unobservable, and because it depends on estimates of GDP that are subject to revision. In contrast, estimates of GDP growth have the advantage of being observable-albeit with a lag. But these estimates are also subject to revision as more and better underlying information becomes available.

OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 2012

Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ECO/WKP(2012)54 Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2012)54 2

IMF Working Papers, 2015

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach) and accounts for unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB by using estimates of "shadow" policy rates. We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved variables in the model. Results show a significant trend decline in the neutral real rate over time, driven only in part by a decline in potential growth whereas other factors (including excess global savings) matter. Neutral rates likely turned negative during the Global Financial Crisis and are expected to increase only gradually looking forward.

2011

2012

In this paper two new measures of the Colombian output gap and the real neutral interest rate are proposed. Instead of relying only on statistical filters, the proposed measures use semi-structural New-Keynesian models, adapted for a small open economy. The output gap measures presented are in line with previous works for Colombia and capture all the turning points of the Colombian business cycle, as measured by Alfonso et al. (2011). They are also strongly correlated with inflation and precede its movements along the sample. The neutral interest rate computed indicates that the monetary policy stance has been overall countercyclical, but has failed to anticipate the output gap’s movements, or at least react strongly enough to them.

Terdapat berbagai jenis permainan yang menggunakan raket yang dimainkan dewasa ini dan tenis merupakan salah satu permainan yang paling disukai.

Inquiry

In Context and Coherence (2021), Una Stojnic defends a conventionalist account of context-sensitivity on which interpretations are resolved by linguistic convention alone. Her target is the standard, Gricean account, which accords reasoning about speakers' intentions a central role. Central to her argument is the observation that much interpretation is resolved automatically, a phenomenon that Gricean accounts are ill-suited to explain. Her arguments for Conventionalism over Gricean Intentionalism are largely persuasive. However, a full defense of Conventionalism requires comparison to non-Gricean, non-conventionalist accounts. Here I sketch and assess the comparative merits of a novel objectivist account. Objectivist accounts accord extra-linguistic, extra-intentional features of a speech situation a role to play in resolving interpretation. After identifying several gaps in Stojnic's account, I show how Objectivism is able to explain the automaticity of interpretation, as well as to provide fuller explanations of several of the cases she discusses.

https://psyjournals.ru/files/114630/chp_2020_n2_Stetsenko.pdf, 2020

The article addresses the challenge of conceptualizing agency within a non-dichotomous, dialectical approach that gives full credit to the social roots of agency and does justice to it being an achievement of togetherness possible only in a communal world shared with others. Critical steps in this direction are undertaken by the Transformative Activist Stance (TAS) approach advanced by this article’s author and further developed and applied to various topics by scholars from many parts of the world. This approach is firmly rooted in cultural-historical activity theory yet also moves beyond it in overcoming some of its impasses. The core elements of TAS are discussed to reveal how they coalesce on the nexus of social practices of self- and world-making. Agency is the process that enacts this nexus of ongoing, ceaseless social-individual transformations whereby people simultaneously, in one process, co-create their world and themselves so that each individual person makes a difference and matters in the totality of social practices. Ethical-political entailments of TAS are discussed to combat the legacy of passivity and inequality still permeating psychology and neighboring fields.