1
Human and social capital strategies for Mafia
network disruption
arXiv:2209.02012v3 [cs.SI] 9 Jan 2023
Annamaria Ficara, Francesco Curreri, Giacomo Fiumara, Pasquale De Meo
Abstract—Social Network Analysis (SNA) is an interdisciplinary science that focuses on discovering the patterns of
individuals interactions. In particular, practitioners have used
SNA to describe and analyze criminal networks to highlight
subgroups, key actors, strengths and weaknesses in order to
generate disruption interventions and crime prevention systems.
In this paper, the effectiveness of a total of seven disruption
strategies for two real Mafia networks is investigated adopting
SNA tools. Three interventions targeting actors with a high
level of social capital and three interventions targeting those
with a high human capital are put to the test and compared
between each other and with random node removal. Human
and social capital approaches were also applied on the BarabásiAlbert models which are the one which better represent criminal
networks. Simulations showed that actor removal based on social
capital proved to be the most effective strategy, by leading to the
total disruption of the criminal network in the least number of
steps. The removal of a specific figure of a Mafia family such as
the Caporegime seemed also promising in the network disruption.
Index Terms—Criminal Network, Social Network Analysis,
Disruption, Social Capital, Human Capital, Simulation.
I. I NTRODUCTION
C
RIMINAL organizations are groups that covertly engage
in illegal activities to provide goods and services to
gain a profit, by accomplishing achievements at the cost of
other individuals, groups or societies [1]. In particular, Mafia
is a criminal group defined by Gambetta as a “territorially
based criminal organization that attempts to govern territories
and markets” [2], by defining the one located in Sicily as
the original Mafia. Compared to other criminal organizations,
Mafia groups differ in their structure. They are structured as
a collection of loosely coupled groups, which last for several
generations [3], [4]. Each of these groups is referred to as
cosca, family or clan. Because of their strong resilience to
disruption, such networks pose particularly hard challenges
to Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs). Herein, we borrow
methods and tools from Social Network Analysis (SNA)
to investigate the effectiveness of several law enforcement
interventions against two Mafia networks, based on a realworld dataset built from a major anti-mafia operation called
“Montagna” which was concluded in 2007. Such dataset was
used in different studies on Mafia networks through SNA, in
particular to analyze the structure of such networks [5]–[7],
identifying subgroups and highlighting strategically positioned
key actors [8], [9], and developing disruption and prevention
methods [10]–[12].
SNA is a growing interdisciplinary science that focuses
on discovering the patterns of individuals interactions. It
found extensive application in organizational behavior, inter-
organizational relations, criminal groups analysis, the study of
breakouts, mental health, the diffusion of information. As an
interdisciplinary science, it spans through different domains
such as Anthropology, Sociology, Psychology, Economics,
Mathematics, Medicine and Computer Science [13]. Some of
the challenges currently involving SNA deal with big data
analytics, information fusion, scalability, statistical modeling
for large networks, pattern modeling and extraction, or visualization.
The idea of conceiving organized crime as a network, rather
than a hierarchical structure, has incrementally grown in criminologist literature over the last century. During the twentieth
century, the most common approach to study organized crime
was the “alien conspiracy theory”, that blamed the origin
of crime to outsiders (hence its name) and that considered
it structured as a bureaucratic organization that followed a
specific hierarchy with specific roles [14]. Only by the end
of that century, such view was abandoned in favor of new
analytical methods that viewed organized crime as a system
of loosely structured relationships mainly based on patronclient relations [15]. Investigations started to be conducted
by performing link analysis through visual representations of
the structure of the criminal groups [16], giving birth to the
first applications of network analysis as a “tool” [17]. Already
by the ’80s, network methods and concepts, such as density
and centrality, were adopted to study criminal groups [16] and
time by time the interest in the discipline grew significantly,
contributing to opening new research trends and bringing
significant developments [18], [19].
Nowadays, SNA for criminal analysis focuses on the
computation for network measurements such as density and
centralization, analysis of clusters and the measure of the
centrality of individuals, that are able to identify critical actors
in the group [20]–[23] and whose removal would maximize
network disruption [24], [25] and allow to construct crime
prevention systems [12], [26]. Some actors within criminal
networks can have particularly strong connections or more
connections than others. Some actors may also act as brokers
between other actors.
Social networks, including criminal networks, can thus be
conceptualized as being made of two kinds of capital, on
which dismantling approaches are based: human capital and
social capital. The first approach deals with techniques able
to identify high human capital figures within the network
and it is based on the importance of roles. Human capital
is indeed defined as “the knowledge, skills, competencies and
attributes embodied in individuals that facilitate the creation
of personal, social and economic well-being” [27]. The social
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capital approach identifies key actors based on their ties in
the group and the centrality measures from SNA, giving
more importance to the communicative flow rather than the
importance of roles. Social capital is defined as “those tangible
assets that count for most in the daily lives of people: namely
goodwill, fellowship, sympathy, and social intercourse among
the individuals and families who make up a social unit” [27].
In [28], we provided a literature review of the most
significant works on covert network disruption underlining
how disruption strategies based on human or social capitals
are usually developed in a parallel fashion and exploit very
different techniques. Social and human capital can be used
together thus creating a third approach which we defined as
the mixed approach. Only few researchers tried this unified
approach that seeks to identify nodes in the network which
are simultaneously able to deteriorate both of the capitals [25],
[29]–[38]. For example, Bright et al. [37] adopted different
strategies based on either human or social capital exploring
the validity of five LEAs interventions in dismantling and
disrupting criminal networks. We also noticed that most of
the works on covert network disruption refer to terrorist
networks while there are very few papers about Mafia network
disruption. For this reason and inspired by [37], in this paper,
we introduced and tested on our Mafia networks different
disruption strategies based on either human and social capital.
We used three traditional centrality measures to target actors
with a high level of social capital: degree, betweenness and
closeness centralities. We also selected caporegimes, soldiers
and entrepreneurs as targeted actors with a high level of
human capital. At each step, an actor is removed and the
network integrity is evaluated through three measures, namely
the number of connected components, the size of the largest
connected component and the average global efficiency. Such
interventions are then compared with each other and with
random removal of actors for both of the two networks, leading
to a total of seven different strategies. The random strategy
is an important comparison since it can be seen as the case
in which LEAs randomly raid sites of illegal actions making
arrests on the spot. The aim is to gain insights about the most
efficient disruptive strategy, that is evaluated by the number
of steps before the complete disruption and consistency above
replications.
Bright et al. [37] considered a case study related to the
manufacture and trafficking of synthetic drugs like methamphetamine. To perform their duties and carry out the process
of drug cultivation, production, and distribution, the actors
within the network must possess specific resources: drugs,
precursor chemicals, equipment, money, premises, skills, labor
and information. The used human capital strategy was implemented by removing actors possessing a particular resource
and with the highest degree centrality value. Our approach is
different because our aim is to dismantle mafia families, which
have a very peculiar hierarchical structure [8], with different
characteristics from simple criminal groups who produce and
distribute synthetic drugs. In fact, our human capital strategy
does not consist in targeting actors who possess a particular
resource but those who have a particular role in the hierarchy
of the mafia group. Then, we want to verify if it is possible to
create a network model for criminal network disruption using
an artificial network with the same characteristics of a mafia
network. In our previous work [7], we used some popular network models like the Erdös-Rényi (ER) [39] model, the WattsStrogatz (WS) [40] model and different configurations of the
Barabási-Albert (BA) [41] model to replicate the topology of a
criminal network. Our experiments identified the BA model as
the one which better represents a criminal network. Once we
have identified the key role in the hierarchy of a mafia family
or in its criminal activities, we want to try to identify this
role in BA models and apply our disruption strategies to these
models. Specifically, the human capital approach is simulated
targeting nodes with the same rank of the caporegimes in our
Mafia networks.
The paper is structured as follows. In Section II, our dataset
adopted in this work is introduced; Section III describes all
the seven strategies adopted, divided in three subgroups: social
capital based strategies, human capital based strategies and
random disruption; the algorithms for the simulations are
explained and measures to evaluate the network integrity are
given as well; Section IV shows the results and comparison
between the methods applied on Mafia networks and BA
models and conclusions are finally drawn.
II. C RIMINAL NETWORK DATASET
Our analysis focuses on two real criminal networks related
to a specific anti-mafia operation called Montagna [7]–[12].
This operation was conducted by the Special Operations
Group (ROS) of the Italian Carabinieri and the Provincial
Command of Messina (Sicily) who were able to eliminate
leaders of the Mistretta Mafia family and the Batanesi clan
(operating in Tortorici) making 39 arrests under preventive
detention orders and reporting 28 suspected criminals on the
loose. The Mistretta family and the Batanesi clan, between
2003 and 2007, monopolized the sector of public contracts
in the Tyrrhenian strip and in the nebroidal district of the
province of Messina, through a cartel of entrepreneurs close
to the Sicilian Mafia. Between the end of the ’90s and the
beginning of the 2000s, these entrepreneurs acquired important
public orders, from supplies for works on roads and highways
to contracts for the methanization of many municipalities in
the area. Furthermore, the Montagna operation identified the
Mistretta family as a mediator between Mafia families in
Palermo and Catania and other criminal organizations around
Messina.
In 2007, after the conclusion of the anti-mafia operation,
a pre-trial detention order for 38 individuals was issued by
the Preliminary Investigation Judge of Messina. It was a two
hundred pages document which contained a lot of details about
crimes, activities, meetings, and calls among the suspected
criminals. From this order, we extracted two unique undirected
and weighted networks, i.e. Montagna Meetings MM and
Montagna Phone Calls MP C . The first one contains 101
suspected criminals close to the Sicilian Mafia connected by
256 links which represent meetings emerging from the police
physical surveillance. The second one contains 100 suspects
connected by 124 links which represent phone calls emerging
3
Fig. 1. The Montagna Meetings MM and Phone Calls MP C networks. The edge width is equal to the edge weights, i.e. the number of meetings (or phone
calls). The node size is proportional to node degree. Caporegimes are marked in purple, soldiers in burgundy and entrepreneurs in green.
from the police audio surveillance. MM and MP C share 47
nodes and are available on Zenodo [42].
As we have already discussed in [8], a Mafia family or clan
has a typical hierarchical structure. On top of the pyramid
hierarchical chart is the Boss who keeps a low-profile often
hiding his real identity. He makes all the major decisions,
controls the other members of the clan and resolves any kind
of dispute. Just below him is the Underboss who is the second
in command. If the Boss risks going to jail or is pretty old,
the Underboss can replace him and resolve some disputes
without involving him. In-between the Boss and Underboss
there are two key roles which are the Consigliere and the
Messaggero. The first one advices the boss and makes fair
decisions for the good of the Mafia. The second one is a
messenger who limits the public exposure of the boss, reducing
the need for sit-downs or meetings between the clans. In
a specific geographical location, the Caporegime or Capo
manages his group of criminals within the family. He is just
below the underboss and his career depends on the amount
of money he can bring into the criminal family. The number
of Caporegimes in a given family depends on the dimension
of that family. A capo can have many soldiers in his crew.
Soldiers are street level mobsters who essentially are no more
than average criminals. Then come associates who work with
Mafia soldiers and caporegimes on various criminal activities.
They can be drug dealers or thieves, as well as entrepreneurs,
pharmacists, lawyers, politicians or police officers, who are
not actual members of the Mafia, but work with the mob.
Starting from our pre-trial detention order, we were also
able to reconstruct the roles of the actors according to the
specific hierarchy of Mafia families and also defining the roles
of associates in our criminal networks. Thus, we built a labeled
graph in which each node has an attribute as described in
TABLE I
L IST OF ATTRIBUTES AND NUMBER OF NODES WHO POSSESS EACH IN THE
M EETINGS AND P HONE C ALLS NETWORKS EXTRACTED FROM THE
M ONTAGNA OPERATION
No. nodes
Attribute
Boss
Messaggero
Caporegime
Deputy Caporegime
Soldier
Associate
Relative
Cohabitee
Fugitive
Charged
In jail
Figurehead
Unclear
Entrepreneur
Pharmacist
Lawyer
Electrician
City employee
Transporter
Cooperating witness
Landowner
Bar owner
Fishmonger
Accountant
Breeder
Construction worker
External partnership
Meetings
Phone Calls
4
1
12
2
18
26
2
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
5
6
0
1
0
2
0
16
0
1
7
2
18
25
2
1
0
1
2
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
8
3
2
0
2
3
2
16
Table I.
Crimes committed by the Mafia families at the centre of the
Montagna operation involve flow of human capital, resources,
information, specific roles and tasks. The identification of
specific roles is important for the development of human
4
capital strategies for network disruption. For example, the
role of an associate as an entrepreneur could be important
to win public tenders and to accomplish the public contracts
in a fraudulent way. Also soldiers can be important because
they are those who actually commit crimes such as beatings,
money collection and robbery. Then, caporegimes have a
significant role having the major social status and influence
in the organization. They command a crew of soldiers and
report directly to the Boss or the Underboss. In Figure 1,
caporegimes, soldiers and entrepreneurs are colored in purple,
burgundy and green, respectively.
i
where vhk
is the number of shortest paths from the actor h to
the actor k by passing through i and ghk is the total number of
shortest paths from h to k. BC represents the ability of some
actors to control the flow of connectivity (e.g. information,
resources etc.) within the network. Since these actors often
connect otherwise poorly connected parts of the network, they
are called brokers.
Closeness centrality attacks were implemented by removing
the actors sequentially according to the maximal closeness
centrality. Closeness centrality (CL) [43] is defined as:
n
,
(3)
CLi = P
dij
j
III. C RIMINAL NETWORK DISRUPTION STRATEGIES
In our experiments we reproduced the interventions that
law enforcement agencies usually carry out to disrupt and
dismantle criminal networks, that is to say we removed a node
and all the incident edges. The nodes were selected according
to their human and social capital, following criteria that will be
discussed in detail in Subsects. III-A and III-C. Each of these
interventions was modeled by a targeting method which begins
with the full networks MM and MP C respectively of 101 and
100 actors. At each time step we delete a node according
to the specific targeting method. At each step we measured
the number of connected components, the size of the largest
connected component, and the average global efficiency. For
each intervention, the simulation stopped when the network
was completely disrupted: that is, when no nodes remain. For
this study three general disruption approaches have been used:
social capital disruption, random disruption and human capital
disruption and a total of seven different disruption strategies.
A. Social capital disruption
The social capital disruption approach aims at strategic
positions within criminal networks. It is described in the
Algorithm 1.
We used three main strategies: degree centrality attack,
betweenness centrality attack and closeness centrality attack.
Degree centrality attacks were implemented by removing
the actors sequentially according to the maximal degree centrality. Degree centrality (DC) [43] determines the importance
of an actor based on the number of connections and it is
defined as
di
,
(1)
DCi =
n−1
where di is the degree of the actor i and n is the number of
nodes of the network. High degree centrality actors are called
hubs because they are important for the flow of resources and
information throughout the network [25]. Hubs are associated
with powerful and influential positions within social networks.
Betweenness centrality attacks were implemented by removing the actors sequentially according to the maximal betweenness centrality. Betweenness centrality (BC) [44] measures
how frequently a node lies on the shortest paths between other
pairs of nodes:
X vi
hk
,
(2)
BCi =
ghk
h,k
where dij is the distance between i and j and n is the size of
the network. CL measures how close an actor is to the other
actors in the network. This measure has the aim of measuring
the ability of autonomy or independence of the actors.
Algorithm 1 Social capital disruption.
% Initialization;
set an undirected graph G = (V, E);
set the initial number of connected components cc0 of G;
set the initial size of the largest connected component lcc0 of
G;
0
set the initial average global efficiency Eglob
of G;
set T = |V |, the number of steps to stop the algorithm;
for each step s = 1 : T do
% Choose a centrality measure (Degree, Betweenness,
Closeness);
compute the centrality of each node n ∈ V ;
% Apply the target strategy to disrupt G;
set a node c ∈ V as the most central;
remove c from V ;
% Compute the normalized number of connected components;
ccs = ccs /cc0 ;
% Compute the normalized size of the largest connected
component;
lccs = lccs /lcc0 ;
% Compute the normalized average global efficiency;
s
s
0
= Eglob
/Eglob
;
Eglob
end
B. Random disruption
The random disruption approach follows no preference or
ranking during the actor selection for removal. It is described
in the Algorithm 2. This strategy can be associated with nonstrategic opportunistic law enforcement interventions. This
is the case in which for example law enforcement officers
randomly bust sites of illicit activities and make arrests on the
spot [25].
C. Human capital disruption
The human capital disruption strategy consists in targeting
actors with special skills or knowledge. This approach is
described in Algorithm 3.
5
Algorithm 2 Random disruption.
% Initialization;
set an undirected graph G = (V, E);
set the initial number of connected components cc0 of G;
set the initial size of the largest connected component lcc0 of
G;
0
of G;
set the initial average global efficiency Eglob
set T = |V |, the number of steps to stop the algorithm;
for each step s = 1 : T do
% Apply the random selection strategy to disrupt G;
randomly pick a node n ∈ V ;
remove n from V ;
% Compute the normalized number of connected components;
ccs = ccs /cc0 ;
% Compute the normalized size of the largest connected
component;
lccs = lccs /lcc0 ;
% Compute the normalized average global efficiency;
s
s
0
Eglob
= Eglob
/Eglob
;
end
Based on observations within the data under study and the
literature on Mafia networks, the roles of entrepreneur, soldier
and caporegime were selected to analyze this strategy.
Targeting entrepreneurs attacks were implemented by removing the actors with the specific role of entrepreneur in
order of decreasing DC.
Targeting soldiers attacks were implemented by removing
the actors with the specific role of soldier in order of decreasing DC.
Targeting caporegimes attacks were implemented by removing the actors with the specific role of caporegime in order of
decreasing DC.
Algorithm 3 Human capital disruption.
% Initialization;
set an undirected graph G = (V, E);
add customize labels on G nodes according to Table I;
set S ⊂ V as a subset of nodes with a specific label
(Entrepreneur, Soldier, Caporegime);
set the initial number of connected components cc0 of G;
set the initial size of the largest connected component lcc0 of
G;
0
set the initial average global efficiency Eglob
of G;
set T = |S|, the number of steps to stop the algorithm;
for each step s = 1 : T do
% Compute centrality;
compute the degree centrality of each node n ∈ S;
% Apply the target strategy to disrupt G;
set a node c ∈ S as the most central;
remove c from S;
% Compute the normalized number of connected components;
ccs = ccs /cc0 ;
% Compute the normalized size of the largest connected
component;
lccs = lccs /lcc0 ;
% Compute the normalized average global efficiency;
s
s
0
Eglob
= Eglob
/Eglob
;
end
in a graph G is the multiplicative inverse of the shortest path
distance between the nodes:
X 1
1
.
(4)
E(G) =
n(n − 1)
di,j
i6=j∈G
The average global efficiency of a graph is the average
efficiency of all pairs of nodes.
IV. R ESULTS
D. Disruption effects on criminal network structure
As portrayed in Algorithms 1, 2, 3, after each actor removal,
performed following the disruption strategies described above,
we wanted to measure the impact of our attacks on the
networks structure in terms of connectivity and efficiency.
Therefore we used the following metrics: (1) the number of
connected components cc; (2) the largest connected component
lcc; (3) the global efficiency Eglob .
The connected components show the reachability within
the network. In connected components, all the nodes are in
fact always reachable from each other. When the number of
connected components increases, the number of isolated nodes
increases.
In real undirected graphs, we typically find that there is a
largest connected component which fills most of the graph
while the rest of the network is divided into a large number
of small components disconnected from the rest.
Latora and Marchiori [45] introduced the concept of efficiency of a graph as a measure of how efficiently it exchanges
information. The average efficiency of a pair of nodes i and j
To facilitate comparisons across the disruption strategies described in Subsect. III, we plotted three outcome measures on
three separate figures: number of connected components (see
Figure 2), largest connected component size (see Figure 3),
and average global efficiency (see Figure 4). For each plot,
the x-axis shows the number of steps performed. At each step,
one actor is removed according to the social, human or random
approach.
Our results show that the social capital approach is able
to increase the number of connected components, to decrease
the size of the largest connected components and the network
efficiency in both the Meetings and Phone Calls networks on
average by step 20.
Random disruption strategy is the least effective.
The human capital approach is as ineffective as the random
one. Unexpectedly, targeting based on entrepreneurs seems
to be able to disrupt the networks despite they should have
a key role in the Montagna operation. Targeting based on
caporegimes represents an exception because it seems to be
able of disrupting the networks as the degree, betweenness
and closeness targeting.
6
Fig. 2. Number of connected components in Montagna Meetings and Montagna Phone Calls networks.
Fig. 3. Largest connected component in Montagna Meetings and Montagna Phone Calls networks.
Based on this good result about the removal of caporegimes,
we decided to rank nodes according to their degree of connectivity, highlighting in red the caporegimes (see Figure 5).
Then, we did a different kind of analysis to know: (1) if it is
possible to identify a role of a Mafia family as the caporegime
on a network model based on the ranking of nodes; (2) if the
application of the random, social and human capital disruption
strategies is effective on a network model.
In one of our previous works [7], we used some popular network models like random networks (i.e. the ER [39] model),
small-world networks (i.e. the WS [40] model), and different
configurations of scale-free networks (i.e. the BA [41] model)
to replicate the topology of our Meetings network.
Since our experiments identified the BA model as the one
which better represents the criminal networks under study in
the present work, we ranked nodes according to their degree
of connectivity in two kinds of BA models. We highlighted
in red the nodes with the same rank of the caporegimes in
the Meetings and Phone Calls networks (i.e. the supposed
caporegimes). A BA graph of n nodes is grown by attaching
new nodes each with m edges that are preferentially attached
to existing nodes with high degree. In this study we chose
n = 100 and m = 2 and m = 3.
Then, we applied our disruption strategies to the BA models.
We plotted the three outcome measures on three separate
figures: number of connected components (see Figure 7),
largest connected component size (see Figure 8), and average
global efficiency (see Figure 9). Our results show once again
the efficiency of the social capital approach respect to the random one and how the targeting of the supposed caporegimes
appears effective as the social capital approach. The efficacy of
the removal of the supposed caporegimes also proves that the
caporegimes were correctly identified in the network model.
7
Fig. 4. Global efficiency in Montagna Meetings and Montagna Phone Calls networks.
Fig. 5. Ranking nodes in Montagna Meetings and Montagna Phone Calls networks according to their degree of connectivity.
Moreover, the results obtained for the BA graph with m = 2
are more similar to the one obtained for our criminal networks.
The network in fact starts to be dismantled on average by step
20. The BA model with m = 3 starts to be dismantled on
average by step 30.
V. C ONCLUSIONS
Application of SNA in criminology has already been applied
in the past, as in the study of Mafia networks that have been
showed to stand out from other types of criminal networks
due to their structure. This study allowed to simulate different
types of interventions to disrupt two real criminal Mafia
networks. Such a framework allowed to test various hypothetical disruption scenarios by comparing three law enforcement
interventions that targeted social capital (degree centrality,
betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and three law
enforcement strategies that targeted human capital. In case
of Mafia networks, such human capital-based strategies target
actors belonging to a specific role rather than actors owning
specific resources and skills like in other types of criminal
networks. In particular, in this study, the human capital-based
strategies target respectively the roles of entrepreneur, soldier
and caporegime.
A seventh strategy based on random removal was used
as a baseline against which to compare the performance of
the other six. Such strategy is comparable with opportunistic
law enforcement interventions. All strategies based on social
capital and human capital were far more effective at disrupting
the Mafia network compared with the random one.
Overall, the most effective disruption strategies showed to
8
Fig. 6. Ranking nodes in Barabási-Albert models according to their degree of connectivity.
Fig. 7. Number of connected components in Barabási-Albert models.
be the ones that target actors with the highest social capital,
with the betweenness centrality-based one to be the best
performing among the three. Human capital-based strategies
showed to be quite ineffective, with the one targeting caporegimes to perform best among the three. For this reason,
another analysis was carried to understand if it would be
possible to identify a role in a Mafia networks based on
the ranking of the nodes. Such new analysis was carried
to repeat and confirm the experiments on a Barabási-Albert
model which was shown, from our previous studies, to be the
artificial model that best reproduces Mafia networks. Results
showed once again the effectiveness of the social capital-based
approaches and the caporegime-based one with respect to the
random disruption strategy.
In the real world, the arrest of actors inside a criminal group
could cause perturbations inside the network that lead to ties
broken and other new created and overall readjustments. The
feature of being dynamic and adaptable is a crucial concept
tied to criminal networks. In literature, this phenomenon is
generally referred to as resilience. Resilience is indeed the
ability of such networks to face pressures from LEAs and
to reorganize after specific attacks, based on the original
topology. For instance, the arrest of actors may threaten trust
inside the network, since it may raise suspicions of informants
close to the arrested subject, that the arrested individual may
have confessed the crime and expose others or that LEAs have
other network members under surveillance. Such dynamics
could cause a reorganization inside the network.
SNA tools allow to study criminal network resilience. From
previous studies it has emerged that after going against strong
9
Fig. 8. Largest connected component in Barabási-Albert models.
Fig. 9. Global efficiency in Barabási-Albert models.
perturbations, criminal networks succeed in reestablishing
their structure, even by substituting the missing members.
Future simulations could then model such responses, taking
network adaption into account.
One limitation in SNA application in criminology is finally
related to the data source and to the modeling used for the
simulations. Although criminal data are a common source,
such data are vulnerable to error for several reasons. It
generally suffers from incompleteness, given the covert nature
of criminal networks; incorrectness, due to human errors or
deceptions; inconsistency, caused by misleading information.
Moreover, gathering complete network data is an impossible
task, due to the feature of a criminal network to be dynamic
and due to the impossibility to establish its boundaries that
are often prone to ambiguity. Finally, there is not a standard
method in SNA to turn data into graph, that is a labor-intensive
and time-consuming procedure left to the analyst themself.
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VI. B IOGRAPHY S ECTION
Annamaria Ficara is a Teaching Assistant at the University of Messina,
Italy. She has a PhD in Mathematics and Computational Sciences from the
University of Palermo, Italy. Her main research interests are in network
science, social network analysis, criminal networks and complex systems.
Contact her at
[email protected].
Francesco Curreri is a PhD Student in Mathematics and Computational
Sciences at the University of Palermo, Italy. His main research interests
are in system identification and nonlinear systems modeling, soft sensors,
neural models, social network analysis and criminal networks. Contact him
at
[email protected].
Giacomo Fiumara is an Associate Professor of Computer Science at the
University of Messina, Italy since 2009. In 1993 he took his PhD in Physics.
His research interests include network science, criminal networks, simulations
of model systems. He has published more than 80 papers in international
journals and conference proceedings. He is member of various conference
PCs. Contact him at
[email protected].
Pasquale De Meo is an Associate Professor of Computer Science at
the Department of Ancient and Modern Civilizations at the University of
Messina, Italy. His main research interests are in the area of social networks,
recommender systems, and user profiling. De Meo has a PhD in Systems
Engineering and Computer Science from the University of Calabria. He has
been the Marie Curie Fellow at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Contact him
at
[email protected].