Papers by Antonia Gkergki
Limited scholarly attention has been devoted to examining the impact of immigration on developing... more Limited scholarly attention has been devoted to examining the impact of immigration on developing economies relative to developed ones. Even the impact of immigration on developed nations continues to be a subject of intense debate. The voluminous empirical literature that has emerged in this field is far from conclusive. In this paper we test the impact of an unprecedented increase in immigrants with dissimilar social, but similar human capital on the host country’s crime. To do this we explore the Syrian refugee influx in Turkey. Our work contributes to the new area of research in the literature by examining how immigrants with varying levels of social capital affect emerging economies rather than developed ones. We found no impact on violent crime, but found a significant impact on non-violent crime. Using a more machine learning approach of ‘Trajectory Balancing’, we found our significant impact result for the non-violent crime to be robust and strikingly close. We also use ’Causal Forest’ which is one of the most sophisticated (if not the most) causal machine learning methods. Using Causal Forest, we effectively unmasked the average treatment effect on the non-violent crime rate and investigate the heterogeneous treatment effect depending on region level characteristics, which can greatly assist policymakers in this regard. We also argue that the higher impact on non-violent crime rate is due to the displacement of natives by migrants, from the more competitive informal job (agricultural) sector in the treated regions.
Journal of Regional & Socio-Economic Issues , 2023
The turmoil in the Middle East and particularly the civil war in Syria, that started in 2011, ... more The turmoil in the Middle East and particularly the civil war in Syria, that started in 2011, has sent waves of refugees through many regions in the world. Greece, which is a first port of entry for those who want to move further in Europe, has become something like a “holding pen” for people seeking asylum. This paper focuses on the unexpected, rapid, and large influx of refugees in Greece as a result of forced out immigration from the Middle East region and examines the effect of these influxes on the GDP per capita. In this paper the difference-in-differences approach is used to estimate the effect of immigration on GDP. The main outcome of the analysis is that the immigrant influx had a negative effect on the treated regions; this is demonstrated by the standard DID test as well as all of the different tests that included differing sets of covariates for robustness. Thus, the primary conclusion supports a hypothesis that the impacted regions served as a “break-water” for the immigrant waves, absorbing most of the negative economic effect.
This paper investigates the effect of electricity production on GDP growth and on poverty in Bang... more This paper investigates the effect of electricity production on GDP growth and on poverty in Bangladesh by utilizing a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) via GTAP-POV (Global Trade Analysis Project-Poverty) framework. As Bangladesh targets to transition into a middle-income country from a low-income country by 2021, GDP growth and reduction of poverty are crucial factors for achieving this goal. One of the ways of increasing the GDP growth is by increasing the production of electricity. By calculating the electricity production requirement, we found that, by increasing electricity production by 25%, it is possible to increase the GDP growth of Bangladesh by 1%. The results also suggest that, whenever there is an increase in electricity production, there is an increase in output in non-agricultural sectors as well. Furthermore, the skilled workers in the economy benefit more and perform better considering the reduction of poverty. A robustness check has been conducted by re...
This paper is studies the relative relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, a... more This paper is studies the relative relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, and tests this relationship in four developed and developing countries (USA, UK, India, and Malaysia) for the period 1970-2000.
This paper examines the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth from 1968... more This paper examines the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth from 1968 to 2019 in Greece, by employing the vector error-correction model estimation. A series of econometric tests are employed concerning the stationary of the data, and the co-integration and the relationship among the variables during the long- and short-term. The empirical results suggest that there is no bidirectional relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. More specifically, GDP per capita does not affect the energy consumption of the three primary sources either in the long-term or the short-term. In other words, the economic crisis and its implications for GDP do not affect energy consumption, and they are not responsible for the considerable decrease in energy sources’ consumption. On the other hand, the energy consumption of oil and coal negatively affect the GDP per capita. These results are different from previous studies’ conclusions for Greece; this is because they never been experienced before. These findings raise new research questions and also show the limi-tations of the Greek market, as it is regulated and controlled by the government.
Journal of Knowledge Globalization, Vol 10, No 2, 2018
This paper investigates the effect of electricity production on GDP growth and on poverty in Bang... more This paper investigates the effect of electricity production on GDP growth and on poverty in Bangladesh by utilizing a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) via GTAP-POV (Global Trade Analysis Project-Poverty) framework. As Bangladesh targets to transition into a middle-income country from a low-income country by 2021, GDP growth and reduction of poverty are crucial factors for achieving this goal. One of the ways of increasing the GDP growth is by increasing the production of electricity. By calculating the electricity production requirement, we found that, by increasing electricity production by 25%, it is possible to increase the GDP growth of Bangladesh by 1%. The results also suggest that, whenever there is an increase in electricity production, there is an increase in output in non-agricultural sectors as well. Furthermore, the skilled workers in the economy benefit more and perform better considering the reduction of poverty. A robustness check has been conducted by reducing the tax on electricity, and it suggests similar results.
Drafts by Antonia Gkergki
The turmoil in the Middle East and particularly the civil war in Syria, that started in 2011, has... more The turmoil in the Middle East and particularly the civil war in Syria, that started in 2011, has sent waves of refugees through many regions in the world. Greece, which is a first port of entry for those who want to move further in Europe, has become something like a "holding pen" for people seeking asylum. This paper focuses on the unexpected, rapid, and large influx of refugees in Greece as a result of forced out immigration from the Middle East region and examines the effect of these influxes on the GDP per capita. In this paper the difference-indifferences (DID) approach was used to estimate the effect of immigration on GDP. The main outcomes of the analysis were that the immigrant influx had a negative effect on the treated regions in the standard DID test as well as in all the different tests that included differing sets of covariates for robustness. Thus, the primary conclusion supports a hypothesis that the impacted regions served as a "break-water" for the immigrant waves, absorbing most of the negative economic effect. 2
In this paper we examine Greece's experience as part of the Eurozone. Specifically, we investigat... more In this paper we examine Greece's experience as part of the Eurozone. Specifically, we investigate the causal effect of adopting the euro on the per capita GDP of Greece by using the synthetic control method that constructs a credible counterfactual for comparison. The results show that Greece benefited early from the introduction of the euro but these gains did not last. Although Greece was doing significantly better than its synthetic until 2010, during and after the European crisis Greece significantly underperformed its synthetic control. This large shortfall in GDP shows (as of 2017) no sign of shrinking and the size of the post-2010 underperformance swamps the size of the pre-2010 gains.
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Papers by Antonia Gkergki
Drafts by Antonia Gkergki