Papers by Frederico Valtuille Faleiro
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2020
AimHistorical climate variations, current climate and human impacts are known to influence curren... more AimHistorical climate variations, current climate and human impacts are known to influence current species richness, but their effects on phylogenetic and trait diversity have been seldom studied. We investigated the relationship of these three factors with the independent variations of species, phylogenetic and trait diversity of European mammals. Considering the position of the 0 ºC isotherm in the Last Glacial Maximum as a tipping point, we tested the following hypotheses: northern European assemblages host fewer species than southern European ones; northern areas harbour trait and phylogenetically clustered assemblages, while the more stable southern areas host random or overdispersed assemblages; and species richness correlates positively with human influence, while phylogenetic and trait diversity show clustered patterns in areas with stronger human influence.LocationWestern Palaearctic.Time periodCurrent and Late Pleistocene effects on present‐day diversity.Major taxa studied...
Diversity and Distributions, Jun 15, 2017
Aim: To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under... more Aim: To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socioeconomic costs, presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants. Location: The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods: We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and socioeconomic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. Results: Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on average 26%-34% of species' distributions. The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change scenarios. Main conclusions: Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity.
Diversity and Distributions, 2013
Aim To analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversit... more Aim To analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic costs. Location Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 154 mammals inhabiting the cerrado. We combined model projections to produce consensus maps of species' distributions for three types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models). We used these range summaries as input data in spatial prioritization analyses. We compared six conservation scenarios, considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, political willingness to act and the distribution of species using trade-off analyses. We complemented the current network of protected areas, aiming to achieve a target of 17% of land protection in the cerrado. Results Species-rich sites coincide with regions with high human population, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use and diverse levels of political willingness to act. We found a significant change in spatial priorities when we included socioeconomic and political dimensions in analyses: top-priority sites moved north, reduced by 68% potential conservation conflicts with human population, reduced by 72% the total monetary cost of actions and reduced by 68% conflict with other anthropogenic land uses. It also increased by 80% the beneficial effect of political willingness to act. Main conclusions Our results reinforce the idea that using only biological criteria for proposing spatial conservation priorities can undermine conservation plans given increases in socioeconomic and political conflicts.
ENCICLOPÉDIA BIOSFERA, 2009
RESUMO O desenvolvimento sustentável está diretamente relacionado à agregação de valor aos elemen... more RESUMO O desenvolvimento sustentável está diretamente relacionado à agregação de valor aos elementos da flora e da fauna, o que promove a preservação ambiental e a conservação dos recursos naturais. Sendo o Cerrado uma área prioritária para conservação (Hotspot), caracterizada por ter uma biodiversidade rica e ameaçada no mais alto grau, o Núcleo de Estudos em Tecnologias para Socialização do conhecimento em Biologia (NETESB)-Sala Verde (Espaço Samambaia, M. M. A.) visou desenvolver com estudantes do ensino fundamental a presente proposta de conscientização e práticas que lhes possibilitem respeitar a natureza por relações de significado e experiências intra e interpessoais, permitindo resignificar esses conceitos de forma a inseri-los no seu cotidiano, sem que sejam práticas impostas. Nesse sentido, desenvolvemos atividades diversas, como aulas de campo, seções de filmes e atividades lúdicas com o uso de jogos, sendo elas realizadas na Universidade Federal de Goiás e nas escolas do ensino fundamental da região noroeste de Goiânia. A avaliação das metodologias desenvolvidas foi feita através da aplicação de questionários e de entrevistas informais feita aos estudantes. Concluímos que as propostas como aula de campo, mostras de filmes e jogos, agregando valor aos elementos da flora do cerrado, são importantes abordagens educacionais e que podem propiciar melhor exploração de temáticas na área da Educação Ambiental, e ao mesmo tempo socializar a ciência por meio da transformação da linguagem cientifica em linguagem popular.
Acta Scientiarum Biological Sciences, 2013
The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as ... more The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as determinants of current species richness pattern of forestry trees in South America. The study predicted the distribution of 217 tree species using Maxent models, and calculated the potential species richness pattern, which was further deconstructed based on range sizes and modeled against current and historical climates predictors using Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) analyses. The current climate explains more of the wide-ranging species richness patterns than that of the narrow-ranging species, while the historical climate explained an equally small amount of variance for both narrow-and-wide ranging tree species richness patterns. The richness deconstruction based on range size revealed that the influences of current and historical climate hypotheses underlying patterns in South American tree species richness differ from those found in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, the historical climate appears to be an important determinant of richness only in regions with marked climate changes and proved Pleistocenic refuges, while the current climate predicts the species richness across those Neotropical regions, with nonevident refuges in the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, this study's analyses show that these climate hypotheses are complementary to explain the South American tree species richness.
Mamıferos do Brasil: Genética, Sistemática, Ecologia e Conservaçao, 2012
As acoes humanas tem desencadeado diversas ameacas a biodiversidade como as mudancas de uso do so... more As acoes humanas tem desencadeado diversas ameacas a biodiversidade como as mudancas de uso do solo e do clima, sobre-exploracao, poluicao e introducao de especies invasoras, que afetas os organismos da escala local ate a global. A ciencia da conservacao espacial para conservacao emergiu como uma abordagem quantitativa que tem o objetivo de auxiliar escolhas espaciais que lidem com essas ameacas enquanto minimizam conflitos socioeconomicos e politicos. Aqui nos desenvolvemos solucoes espaciais para conservacao de mamiferos nao voadores do Cerrado considerando os custos socioeconomicos e as oportunidades vindas da governanca ambiental (primeiro objetivo). Alem disso, nos geramos solucoes espaciais que lidem com as mudancas do uso do solo e climaticas levando em consideracao as capacidades de dispersao das especies e as incertezas associadas ao processo de modelagem de distribuicao de especies (MDE) (segundo objetivo). Em ambos objetivos nos consideramos a atual rede de reservas do Ce...
As mudancas climaticas sao uma das principais ameacas a biodiversidade e e esperado que aumente s... more As mudancas climaticas sao uma das principais ameacas a biodiversidade e e esperado que aumente seu impacto ao longo do seculo XXI. As mudancas climaticas afetam todos os niveis de biodiversidade, de individuos a biomas, reduzindo os servicos ecossistemicos. Apesar disso, as predicoes dos impactos das mudancas climaticas na biodiversidade e ainda um desafio. A superacao dessas questoes depende de melhorias em diferentes aspectos da ciencia que da suporte para predizer o impacto das mudancas climaticas na biodiversidade. A pratica comum para predizer o impacto das mudancas climaticas consiste em formular modelos de nicho ecologico baseado no clima atual e projetar as mudancas baseadas no clima futuro predito pelos modelos climaticos. No entanto, existem algumas limitacoes reconhecidas na formulacao do modelo de nicho ecologico e no uso das predicoes dos modelos climaticos que precisam ser analisadas. Aqui, no primeiro capitulo nos revisamos a ciencia por detras dos modelos climaticos...
DATASETS FOR: Planning for conservation and restoration under climate and land use change in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest
The file "Accessible areas_ENMs.rar" includes ESRI shapefiles for each of the species i... more The file "Accessible areas_ENMs.rar" includes ESRI shapefiles for each of the species included in the study, in WGS84 geographic coordinates. The file "Occurrence points.rar" includes comma-delimited ASCII files for each of the species included in the study, with columns for species name, longitude, and latitude.
Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation
Natureza & Conservação, 2015
ABSTRACT Species invasions are severe drivers of environmental change. Invasive plants may affect... more ABSTRACT Species invasions are severe drivers of environmental change. Invasive plants may affect soil dynamics, interactions and ecosystem functioning, leading to environmental and economic losses. Although species invasion success has been explained by niche conservatism, recent studies have demonstrated that niche shifts may also play a key role in this process. In this study, we tested whether niche shift has occurred during the range expansion of the Yellow Bells, Tecoma stans (Bignoniaceae) and predicted its global risk of invasion. We used Reciprocal Ecological Niche Models techniques and multivariate analyses to test our hypothesis and produce a worldwide invasion risk for this species. Niche spaces of African, Australian, and American exotic populations did not differ substantially from the natural one, although the reciprocal models we fitted for exotic and native occurrences poorly predicted each other. The predictions of the models indicated that T. stans is prone to invade new areas where it has not been recorded yet. Given its competitive abilities, preventive programs in prone-to-be-invaded areas are highly recommended.
Mamıferos do Brasil: Genética, Sistemática, Ecologia e Conservaçao, 2012
AimTo analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity... more AimTo analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic costs.To analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic costs.LocationCerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.MethodsWe built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 154 mammals inhabiting the cerrado. We combined model projections to produce consensus maps of species' distributions for three types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models). We used these range summaries as input data in spatial prioritization analyses. We compared six conservation scenarios, considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, political willingness to act and the distribution of species using trade-off analyses. We complemented the current network of protected areas, aiming to achieve a target of 17% of land protection in the cerrado.We built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 154 mammals inhabiting the cerrado. We combined model projections to produce consensus maps of species' distributions for three types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models). We used these range summaries as input data in spatial prioritization analyses. We compared six conservation scenarios, considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, political willingness to act and the distribution of species using trade-off analyses. We complemented the current network of protected areas, aiming to achieve a target of 17% of land protection in the cerrado.ResultsSpecies-rich sites coincide with regions with high human population, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use and diverse levels of political willingness to act. We found a significant change in spatial priorities when we included socioeconomic and political dimensions in analyses: top-priority sites moved north, reduced by 68% potential conservation conflicts with human population, reduced by 72% the total monetary cost of actions and reduced by 68% conflict with other anthropogenic land uses. It also increased by 80% the beneficial effect of political willingness to act.Species-rich sites coincide with regions with high human population, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use and diverse levels of political willingness to act. We found a significant change in spatial priorities when we included socioeconomic and political dimensions in analyses: top-priority sites moved north, reduced by 68% potential conservation conflicts with human population, reduced by 72% the total monetary cost of actions and reduced by 68% conflict with other anthropogenic land uses. It also increased by 80% the beneficial effect of political willingness to act.Main conclusionsOur results reinforce the idea that using only biological criteria for proposing spatial conservation priorities can undermine conservation plans given increases in socioeconomic and political conflicts.Our results reinforce the idea that using only biological criteria for proposing spatial conservation priorities can undermine conservation plans given increases in socioeconomic and political conflicts.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as ... more The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as determinants of current species richness pattern of forestry trees in South America. The study predicted the distribution of 217 tree species using Maxent models, and calculated the potential species richness pattern, which was further deconstructed based on range sizes and modeled against current and historical climates predictors using Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) analyses. The current climate explains more of the wide-ranging species richness patterns than that of the narrow-ranging species, while the historical climate explained an equally small amount of variance for both narrow-and-wide ranging tree species richness patterns. The richness deconstruction based on range size revealed that the influences of current and historical climate hypotheses underlying patterns in South American tree species richness differ from those found in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, the historical climate appears to be an important determinant of richness only in regions with marked climate changes and proved Pleistocenic refuges, while the current climate predicts the species richness across those Neotropical regions, with nonevident refuges in the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, this study's analyses show that these climate hypotheses are complementary to explain the South American tree species richness.
Biological Conservation, 2013
Creating and managing protected areas is critical to ensure the persistence of species but dynami... more Creating and managing protected areas is critical to ensure the persistence of species but dynamic threats like land-use change and climate change may reduce the effectiveness of protected areas planned under a static approach. Here we defined spatial priorities for the conservation of non-flying mammals inhabiting the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil, that overcome the likely impacts of land-use and climate change to this imperiled fauna. We used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in mammal distribution. We also generate a future land-use model that indicates how the region would be impacted by habitat loss in the future. We then used our models to propose priority sites for mammal conservation minimizing species climate-forced dispersal distance as well as the mean uncertainty associated to species distribution models and climate models. At the same time, our proposal maximizes complementary species representation across the existing network of protected areas. Including land-use changes and model uncertainties in the planning process changed significantly the spatial distribution of priority sites in the region. While the inclusion of land-use models altered the spatial location of priority sites at the regional scale, the effects of climate change tended to operate at the local scale. Our solutions already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future priority sites for mammal conservation, as well as a formal risk analysis based on planning uncertainties. We hope to provide decision makers with conservation portfolios that could be negotiated at the decision level.► Land-use and climate changes challenge the way spatial conservation planning is done. ► Species distribution models are useful for such plans, but carry uncertainty. ► We included species range shifts and land-use changes in mammal conservation planning. ► Our spatial plans where improved by the inclusion of dynamics threats and uncertainty. ► We offer a methodological way to consider these threats in spatial planning.
PLOS ONE, Jan 1, 2012
A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in ... more A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages. Citation: Loyola RD, Lemes P, Faleiro FV, Trindade-Filho J, Machado RB (2012) Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation. PLoS ONE 7(9): e46257.
Natureza & Conservação, Jan 1, 2011
A conservação in situ é a pedra angular da biologia da conservação, i.e., proteger populações em ... more A conservação in situ é a pedra angular da biologia da conservação, i.e., proteger populações em locais onde estas ocorrem naturalmente, ainda hoje, se apresenta globalmente como a estratégia de conservação mais viável e econômica . Entretanto, desde a escala regional até a global, a eficiência das áreas protegidas em representar os diversos atributos da biodiversidade ainda é baixa . Fundamentalmente, essa ineficiência advém do fato de que o estabelecimento de novas reservas não tem base científica, importando mais, na prática, a vontade política e a oportunidade imediata. Como alternativa a esse tipo de priorização surgiu a ciência do planejamento sistemático para a conservação , que visa propor o melhor conjunto de locais para a conservação e manejo da biodiversidade dentre aqueles disponíveis, satisfazendo princípios-chave como abrangência, adequação, representatividade e eficiência .
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Papers by Frederico Valtuille Faleiro