Books by James D J Brown
Japan's Foreign Relations in Asia has been specifically designed to introduce students to Japan’s... more Japan's Foreign Relations in Asia has been specifically designed to introduce students to Japan’s foreign relations in Asia since 1990, a period in which there have been dramatic developments in Japan, including the reinterpretation of the Constitution and expanded US–Japan defence cooperation. The geopolitical dynamics and implications of these new developments are profound and underscore the need for a new textbook on this subject.
In the final chapter, James Brown takes us on an imaginary journey by train from Tokyo to Yuzhno-... more In the final chapter, James Brown takes us on an imaginary journey by train from Tokyo to Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk in the year 2036. The shinkansen travels via the world’s longest undersea tunnel that connects Hokkaidō with Sakhalin. This is also the route of the Russia-Japan energy bridge and gas pipeline. In the twenty years separating us from this imaginary future, Russia and Japan have successfully resolved the territorial dispute, concluded a free trade agreement, and introduced mutual visa free travel. Brown then explains how this highly optimistic vision could materialize. Above all, there will need to be major changes in attitudes on both sides. In particular, political leaders will need to be courageous and set aside considerations of short-term popularity. If their countries’ decisionmakers concentrate on the enormous future potential of this bilateral relationship, and not on the tensions of the past, perhaps they can find the inspiration to transform Russia-Japan relations.
The territorial dispute between Japan and Russia over four islands off the northeast coast of Hok... more The territorial dispute between Japan and Russia over four islands off the northeast coast of Hokkaido has been an enduring obstacle to closer relations between the two powers and therefore an important determinant of geopolitics in North-East Asia. Having emerged at the end of World War II, this conflict has now existed for more than seven decades. And yet, despite the passage of so much time, within Japan there remains a resilience of belief that the islands will eventually be returned.
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s prospects of ever recovering these "Northern Territories". Offering an in-depth account of why the Japanese side believe they still have a chance of securing the return of the four islands, it also provides an objective and methodical evaluation of the prospects of these expectations being realised. The key finding is that Japanese policymakers and scholars have consistently overestimated the extent of Japan’s leverage with regard to Russia, and that there is, in fact, already no possibility whatsoever of sovereignty over the four islands being restored to Japan. This has major implications for Japanese decision makers who must balance their principled commitment not to compromise on territorial issues with more pragmatic considerations of energy security and how to contain the rise of Chinese regional power.
Presenting a unique analysis and a strikingly different perspective on this territorial dispute, the findings of this book are of considerable importance for international relations within the Asia-Pacific region. It will be of interest to students and scholars of Japanese Politics, Russian Politics and International Relations.
National wealth derived from the production of oil and gas is considered exceptional. As well as ... more National wealth derived from the production of oil and gas is considered exceptional. As well as being potentially detrimental to the broader economy, it is thought liable to diminish standards of governance and fuel civil conflict. However, while these and other domestic effects have received significant attention, little systematic research has been completed into the potential for fluctuations in energy wealth to function as an underlying determinant of foreign policy. This book corrects this oversight by presenting the energy impact theory of foreign policy. Drawing upon the "resource curse" literature as well as existing works of foreign policy analysis, the model predicts that increases in energy riches not only amplify the scale and scope of major energy-producing states' international activity, but induce aggression, unilateralism, and even potentially ruinous overconfidence. This model is tested using detailed case studies of the Soviet Union and Russian Federation, 1970 to 2010, and is found to display considerable predictive potential. As such, this book is likely to be of significance to all those with an interest in energy, IR theory and Soviet/Russian foreign policy.
Papers by James D J Brown
Российский Совет по Международным Делам [Russian International Affairs Council], 2020
75-я годовщина атомных бомбардировок Хиросимы и Нагасаки (6 и 9 августа соответственно) заметно д... more 75-я годовщина атомных бомбардировок Хиросимы и Нагасаки (6 и 9 августа соответственно) заметно доминировала в общественных дебатах и в публикациях СМИ в Япони. В этом году, как и в прежние годы, церемония поминовения этих трагических событий не привела к проявлениям антиамериканизма внутри Японии. Этот факт часто удивляет внешних наблюдателей, в том числе и в России. Причина кроется не в незнании того, что произошло и кто виноват. Скорее, так происходит потому, что японское общество высоко ценит то, что США сделали для Японии после войны.
To what extent does increased China-Russia naval cooperation pose a threat to Japan? Additionally... more To what extent does increased China-Russia naval cooperation pose a threat to Japan? Additionally, what has been Japan’s response? This essay addresses these questions and considers the implications for regional stability.
East Asia Forum, 2019
Territorial talks with Russia were once seen as a way for Abe to burnish his legacy. Recently, th... more Territorial talks with Russia were once seen as a way for Abe to burnish his legacy. Recently, they are looking more like a political liability.
The Diplomat, 2019
What would such a peace agreement include and can it be delivered?
Shingetsu News Agency, 2019
Japan’s Prime Minister Abe has long sought to present himself as a skilled practitioner of intern... more Japan’s Prime Minister Abe has long sought to present himself as a skilled practitioner of international affairs, yet the abject failure of his Russia policy raises questions about his diplomatic competence.
Nikkei Asian Review, 2019
Despite the pain, Japan should put claims on back burner and adopt realistic Russia policy
Sasakawa USA Forum, 2019
As negotiations between Japan and Russia over the status of the disputed Southern Kuril Islands h... more As negotiations between Japan and Russia over the status of the disputed Southern Kuril Islands have accelerated under Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s administration, Moscow has increasingly looked to connect the issue to the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. This is a longstanding tactic that Moscow has employed to encourage Japan to distance itself from its U.S. ally, and it has found renewed success in influencing Japan’s foreign policy under Abe. Some may be tempted to intervene to remind Tokyo of where its priorities should lie, yet Washington should remain reticent since a heavy-handed intervention may be precisely what Moscow is hoping for. Abe’s Russia policy may be naive and disconcerting to many in the West, yet it should be permitted to run its natural course.
US and allies cannot easily split the new 'quasi-alliance' without compromising their principles
While the Abe administration presents Aegis Ashore as an essential and relatively uncontroversial... more While the Abe administration presents Aegis Ashore as an essential and relatively uncontroversial contribution to the defense of Japan from the North Korean threat, in reality the deployment of this missile defense system risks further destabilizing the security situation in Northeast Asia, especially with regard to Russia.
While Abe may once have been an outlier within the G7 when it comes to Russia, he can now claim t... more While Abe may once have been an outlier within the G7 when it comes to Russia, he can now claim that his policy has the support of Japan’s most important ally: the United States
Годы премьерства Синдзо Абэ благодаря его личной и семейной симпатии к России создали реальную во... more Годы премьерства Синдзо Абэ благодаря его личной и семейной симпатии к России создали реальную возможность навсегда трансформировать отношения между двумя странами. Но теперь, когда правление Абэ подходит к концу, двусторонние отношения, скорее всего, вернутся к прежней холодности и регулярным кризисам. Кажется, российская сторона полностью оценит возможности, которые открывало премьерство Абэ только тогда, когда оно уже закончится
Abe should welcome Moscow's initiative and avoid further conflict over territorial row
Tokyo wants to make sure a Russian-Chinese alliance never emerges to threaten Japan, but giving M... more Tokyo wants to make sure a Russian-Chinese alliance never emerges to threaten Japan, but giving Moscow a pass won't accomplish that.
International Affairs, 2018
The growing threats from North Korea and China, as well as heightened concerns about the long-ter... more The growing threats from North Korea and China, as well as heightened concerns about the long-term reliability of the United States, have led Japan to cultivate closer security relations with other regional players. Priority has been placed on Australia, India, South Korea and south-east Asian countries, yet Japan's National Security Strategy also states that cooperation with Russia is crucial. This is controversial since the pursuit of closer ties continued despite Russia's intervention in Ukraine and since the policy sets Japan apart from its US ally. The purpose of this article is to explain the nature, motivations and prospects of this emerging security relationship. The article's key finding is that the Japanese security elite do not regard Russia as a significant threat since a clear differentiation is made between Russia's actions in eastern Europe and east Asia. Additionally, cooperation is considered vital to neutralize the danger of a prospective China–Russia united front. These and related incentives have encouraged Japan to explore security cooperation with Russia, including via 2+2 meetings and search and rescue drills. However, due to a range of international and domestic constraints, Japan's security ties with Russia are likely to remain less developed than those with other partners in the region.
Japan’s prime minister struggles for success abroad amid mounting difficulties at home
Although claimed as a success, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s latest meeting with Russian President ... more Although claimed as a success, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s latest meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin produced meagre results, demonstrating just how far his Russia policy has fallen short of his lofty ambitions.
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Books by James D J Brown
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s prospects of ever recovering these "Northern Territories". Offering an in-depth account of why the Japanese side believe they still have a chance of securing the return of the four islands, it also provides an objective and methodical evaluation of the prospects of these expectations being realised. The key finding is that Japanese policymakers and scholars have consistently overestimated the extent of Japan’s leverage with regard to Russia, and that there is, in fact, already no possibility whatsoever of sovereignty over the four islands being restored to Japan. This has major implications for Japanese decision makers who must balance their principled commitment not to compromise on territorial issues with more pragmatic considerations of energy security and how to contain the rise of Chinese regional power.
Presenting a unique analysis and a strikingly different perspective on this territorial dispute, the findings of this book are of considerable importance for international relations within the Asia-Pacific region. It will be of interest to students and scholars of Japanese Politics, Russian Politics and International Relations.
Papers by James D J Brown
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s prospects of ever recovering these "Northern Territories". Offering an in-depth account of why the Japanese side believe they still have a chance of securing the return of the four islands, it also provides an objective and methodical evaluation of the prospects of these expectations being realised. The key finding is that Japanese policymakers and scholars have consistently overestimated the extent of Japan’s leverage with regard to Russia, and that there is, in fact, already no possibility whatsoever of sovereignty over the four islands being restored to Japan. This has major implications for Japanese decision makers who must balance their principled commitment not to compromise on territorial issues with more pragmatic considerations of energy security and how to contain the rise of Chinese regional power.
Presenting a unique analysis and a strikingly different perspective on this territorial dispute, the findings of this book are of considerable importance for international relations within the Asia-Pacific region. It will be of interest to students and scholars of Japanese Politics, Russian Politics and International Relations.
Ihor Kharchenko
Ambassador of Ukraine to Japan
Yoko Hirose
Associate Professor of Keio University
James D.J. Brown
Assistant Professor of Temple University, Japan Campus
As Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other G7 leaders warn Russian President Vladmir Putin of fresh sanctions over Ukraine, we invite the Ukrainian ambassador and a panel of Japanese experts to discuss what comes next between Russia and the West, Abe and Putin, and Putin and Ukrainian President-elect Petro Poroshenko.
The Ukraine crisis could not have come at a worse time for Japan. In an attempt to finally settle the Northern Territories issue, Abe has spent a huge amount of political capital with Russia, meeting President Vladimir Putin five times and becoming, in 2013, the first Japanese leader to visit Moscow in ten years. All that effort may come to nothing if Abe agrees to US demands to toughen its stance against Putin.
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Japan, Ihor Kharchenko was last at the Club in March as Russia prepared to take control of Crimea. He will return to discuss his country's deteriorating relations with Russia since. A career diplomat with many years service abroad, including stints in Romania, Poland and the UK, Ambassador Kharchenko has been in Japan since 2013.
Yoko Hirose is an associate professor at Keio University's Faculty of Policy Management, and an expert on Russian affairs and the Caucasus region.
James D.J. Brown is an assistant professor at the department of Political Science and International Affairs at Temple University's Japan Campus. His current research focuses on Russian-Japanese relations, with particular regard to the territorial dispute over the Northern Territories/Southern Kurils.
This narrative may be familiar, yet it is also largely false. As Amy King convincingly argues in her new book on postwar China–Japan economic relations, the years 1949 to 1971 are far from being lost years. Indeed, ‘by 1965, Japan had become China's most important...