Papers by Roberto Dell'Anno
HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, 2013
ABSTRACT The aims of this article are to propose an overall index of social exclusion and to anal... more ABSTRACT The aims of this article are to propose an overall index of social exclusion and to analyze its relationship with economic growth in European countries. We approach social exclusion as a multidimensional phenomenon by a three-mode principal components analysis (Tucker3 model). This method is applied to estimate an indicator of social exclusion for 28 European countries between 1995 and 2010. The empirical evidence shows that in the short run: (1) Granger causality runs one way from social exclusion to economic growth and not the other way; (2) countries with a higher level of social exclusion have higher growth rates of real GDP per capita; and (3) social exclusion has a larger effect than income inequality on economic growth. The policy implication of our analysis is that social inclusion is not a source of economic growth in the short term.
Drawing from the existing literature on risk and inequality measurement, we implement the notion ... more Drawing from the existing literature on risk and inequality measurement, we implement the notion of ''certainty equivalent citation'' in order (i) to generalize most of the h-type citation indexes (h-, g-,g; t-, f-, w-index), and (ii) to highlight the centrality of the decision-maker's preferences on distributive aspects (concentration aversion) for the ranking of citation profiles. In order to highlight the sensitivity of citation orderings with respect to concentration aversion, an application to both simulated and real citation profiles is presented.
The Journal of Socio-Economics, 2009
This paper aims to show that aggregate tax evasion may be largely explained by tax morale and tha... more This paper aims to show that aggregate tax evasion may be largely explained by tax morale and that tax morale is dependent on the taxpayers' intrinsic attitudes to honesty and social stigma. The theoretical hypothesis is that these attitudes are influenced by the taxpayers' perceptions of the size of tax evasion as well as by their perceptions of the policy maker's effectiveness in exercising control over the relevant macroeconomic variables and safeguarding the interests of citizens. Applying Gordon's [Gordon, J.P.F., 1989. Individual morality and reputation costs as deterrents to tax evasion. European Economic Review 33(4), 797-805] framework, a dynamic model of aggregate tax evasion is proposed whereby multiple equilibria may emerge. Econometric analysis on Latin American countries supports the assumptions made in the model.
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2010
As recently suggested, the shadow economy and its determinants (taxation, regulations, corruption... more As recently suggested, the shadow economy and its determinants (taxation, regulations, corruption, etc.) are linked such that just two stable equilibria are possible. In the good one there is a small hidden sector, large fiscal revenues and honest/ appreciated institutions. The other (bad) equilibrium is quite the opposite. Our paper examines the links between these variables in relatively uncorrupt systems. Unlike mainstream literature, we suggest that a continuum of SE equilibrium rates can emerge and that taxation and underground activities can be positively correlated. Empirical evidence for OECD countries broadly supports the model.
Empirical Economics, 2014
ABSTRACT This paper provides an empirical analysis of fiscal illusion by estimating an index of f... more ABSTRACT This paper provides an empirical analysis of fiscal illusion by estimating an index of fiscal illusion for 28 European countries over the period 1995–2008 employing a structural equation approach. Using Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes models, the paper investigates the main indicators of fiscal illusion and develops an index of fiscal illusion. It concludes that the chief determinants for the deployment of fiscal illusion strategies are the share of self-employment on total employment, the educational level of citizens, and the size of tax burden. At the same time, policy makers attempt to ‘conceal’ the real tax burden by means of debt illusion, fiscal drag, wage withholding taxes, as well as taxes on labour.
Constitutional Political Economy, 2010
The aim of this study is to assess the causes of the Informal Economy (IE) in Latin American coun... more The aim of this study is to assess the causes of the Informal Economy (IE) in Latin American countries. By including indicators of institutional framework such as human development, marginal tax rate, public social spending, and unemployment rate in panel regressions, we find empirical evidence that the institutional background is a key indicator of the size of the IE in these countries. We observe that the correlation between the size of the IE and the human development index follows an inverted U shaped curve. Suggestions are offered for policies that may be adopted.
International Tax and Public Finance, 2013
Journal of Economic Studies, 2010
The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the per... more The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach and to analyze the relationship between UE and recorded GDP (gross domestic product). In particular, we propose to measure UE by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda-Yamamoto casuality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP. This research provides fresh evidence on the size of the UE to the recorded GDP in Turkey which ranges from 10.65% to 18.91% over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality. Suggestions for economic policy and hints for further research are also offered.
This paper offers estimations of the shadow economy evolution in three very different Mediterrane... more This paper offers estimations of the shadow economy evolution in three very different Mediterranean countries: France, Spain and Greece. A multiple indicator and multiple cause model based on the latent variable structural theory has been applied; following filtered data to solve the non-stationarity problems are used. The model includes tax burden (as a whole and decomposed in indirect taxes, direct taxes and social security contributions), regulation, unemployment rate and self-employment as causes of shadow economy and the participation ratio and currency ratio as indicators of the underground economy. Results confirm that unemployment, fiscal burden and self-employment are the main causes of shadow economy in these countries.
Applied Economics, 2008
This article aims to estimate the size of the US shadow economy (SE) using a structural equation ... more This article aims to estimate the size of the US shadow economy (SE) using a structural equation approach and to evaluate if a structural relationship exists between the SE and the unemployment rate (UR) in the United States. The size of the SE is estimated to be decreasing over the ...
Economics of Transition, 2013
This study analyzes the impact of the speed of transition reforms on economic growth in transitio... more This study analyzes the impact of the speed of transition reforms on economic growth in transition countries in the context of the debate on 'big-bang vs. gradualist approach'. It builds a new indicator for the speed of transition reforms based on a three-way principal component analysis. It shows that: (i) the speed of transition reforms Granger-causes economic growth and there is no reverse causation; (ii) the impact of contemporaneous speed of transition reforms on economic growth is negative, but becomes positive in the longer horizon; and (iii) other factors, such as initial conditions and macroeconomic stabilization programmes, also drive economic growth. Although the first two results are robust to different estimators, the impact of control variables depends on the econometric specification.
Public Finance Review, 2012
ABSTRACT This article estimates the magnitude of fiscal illusion around the world and evaluates w... more ABSTRACT This article estimates the magnitude of fiscal illusion around the world and evaluates whether relationships exist between fiscal illusion and a set of potential observed variables. The index of fiscal illusion is derived for approximately fifty countries over the period 2000–08. Using MIMIC models, the authors conclude that the structure of employment (self-employment as a percentage of total employment) and nominal marginal tax rates, by increasing the visibility of the tax burden, may constitute the greatest incentives for policy makers to distort taxpayers' perceptions. Less relevant are the determinants of fiscal illusion related to the information acquisition and processing capabilities of the taxpayer (i.e., freedom of the press and tertiary education).
Journal of Economic Studies, 2010
The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the per... more The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach and to analyze the relationship between UE and recorded GDP (gross domestic product). In particular, we propose to measure UE by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda-Yamamoto casuality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP. This research provides fresh evidence on the size of the UE to the recorded GDP in Turkey which ranges from 10.65% to 18.91% over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality. Suggestions for economic policy and hints for further research are also offered.
Comparative Economic Studies, 2007
In this paper the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) approach (adjusted) is... more In this paper the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) approach (adjusted) is applied to estimate the size of the non-observed economy (NOE) in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the year 2001. The method proposed attempts to identify the structure of the NOE according to the reasons behind the unrecorded value added (statistical, illegal and economic). The NOE was estimated for each of the Bosnian entities separately according to sector of activity. A definition of the shadow economy is proposed based on SNA93. A comparison with alternative estimates of shadow economies in Central and Eastern European countries is provided. Comparative Economic Studies (2007) 49, 609-631.
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Papers by Roberto Dell'Anno