Papers by José U Mora Mora
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
The analysis of the pandemic and its effects have been widely studied. For instance, in Economics... more The analysis of the pandemic and its effects have been widely studied. For instance, in Economics, most research has studied the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy, a group of countries, or a single country, while the small-scale effects of the pandemic have not received enough attention. In this respect, we study the effects of the pandemic on consumer behavior in Colombia using monthly sales data, from January 2017 to September 2020, by groups of goods and services. To do so, we use the two-stage decision-making model proposed by Acevedo et al. (2020), which shows that consumption choice can be the result of a specific shock and the size of the probability of occurrence of the shock on each group can be computed. We show that on average the value of a probability of a given shock is zero and, therefore, there are no reasons for a consumer to change her consumption patterns. That is, the optimal choice is constant along time. However, when there is an unexpected event, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the change in the probability of the shock is not zero anymore. As a result, consumption patterns are disrupted, and the shock can have transitory or permanent effects.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015
This paper analyzes the impact that social public policies might have had on the economic growth ... more This paper analyzes the impact that social public policies might have had on the economic growth of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, and Venezuela during the period of 1980 to 2010. It also examines the hypothesis of convergence in these countries. To accomplish this goal, it uses panel data analysis on data extracted from the CEPAL and the Penn World Table databases. Empirical results are consistent with those found by Barro
SSRN Electronic Journal
This paper proposes a mathematical two-stage decision making model based on dual-decision models ... more This paper proposes a mathematical two-stage decision making model based on dual-decision models from behavioral economics that includes, in addition to cognitive and affective systems, an individualistic human factor and a stochastic shock. The model provides a new vision of the decision-making process and the impact of individualism. In the first stage, the agent´s initial willingness to choose is obtained following traditional economic theory but including an individual human factor, which is composed by the learning process, free will, and other human factors. This allows us to explain the reason why sometimes people are inclined to choose options that seem to be irrational decisions from the view of traditional economics logic. In the second stage, the model explains how the cognitive and affective systems and the influence of a stochastic shock affect the initial willingness to choose, obtained in the first stage. The shock might be produced by those negative and/or positive feelings and information not known or considered previously that allows the individual arrive to the final decision. Finally, our model demonstrates that the individual human factor and the stochastic shock are fundamental elements that define the rational irrationality when traditional economic theory fails to explain individuals´choices.
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
This paper aims to analyze economic and commercial convergence in the three active integration ag... more This paper aims to analyze economic and commercial convergence in the three active integration agreements in the region: Central American Integration System, Southern Common Market, and Pacific Alliance. To this end, we estimated the Economic Convergence Index and correlations among the main macroeconomic aggregates. The empirical evidence reveals that, apart from Venezuela, Latin American countries have a high potential to form a common market. This potential derives more from the dynamics of their economies than from the political blocs or agreements that States want to pursue.
Sustainability
This study considers how the formation and implementation strategies of a Latin America alliance ... more This study considers how the formation and implementation strategies of a Latin America alliance between four of the best economic performance countries in the region have impacted the quality of entrepreneurship in these countries. To this end, we studied the Pacific Alliance (PA) and employed an ordered probit model with sample selection bias and statistical information from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) database for the 2012–2017 period. As a dependent variable, we used the growth aspiration of entrepreneurs as a proxy to measure the future growth of the company, from which a possible economic impact could be inferred. The evidence shows that during the implementation period of the PA, there is a positive impact on entrepreneur growth aspirations in member countries; the likelihood that entrepreneurs have high-growth aspirations is found to be greater during and after the implementation period than before the signing of the PA. Likewise, it was found that motivation, ...
Journal of Economic Integration
This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of c... more This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of capital mobility in some Latin American countries. Mundell's (1963) and Fleming's (1962) models show that this effect could be very large or small (close to zero) depending on the exchange rate and the degree of capital mobility, and the potency of a fiscal policy is inversely correlated with the degree of capital mobility. Based on Mora's (2013) model, we argue that the multiplier might not be negatively correlated with capital mobility in these countries. In other words, the potency of fiscal policy could be small because the degree of capital mobility in Latin American countries is quite low. The empirical findings support our hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain around 1.40 in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Latin American countries are still large but could be larger if they become more financially integrated with the rest of the world.
Revista de Economía Institucional
Este escrito analiza la hipótesis de convergencia y el impacto de las políticas sociales en el cr... more Este escrito analiza la hipótesis de convergencia y el impacto de las políticas sociales en el crecimiento económico de los seis países más grandes de América Latina entre 1980 y 2010. Los resultados indican que las políticas sociales han influido en el crecimiento económico de esos países. De manera más precisa, existen variables no observables (efectos fijos) que afectaron positivamente el crecimiento de Venezuela y Chile, y factores no observables que afectaron negativamente a Brasil y México. Se encontró, además, que la velocidad de convergencia disminuye cuando aumenta el nivel de ingresos, lo que podría indicar que estos países pueden estar convergiendo a sus estados estacionarios.
Revista CIFE: Lecturas de Economía Social, 2013
por el financiamiento y el apoyo para la conclusión de este proyecto. Cómo citar este artículo: M... more por el financiamiento y el apoyo para la conclusión de este proyecto. Cómo citar este artículo: Mora, J. (2013). Fluctuaciones económicas bajo régimen de cambio fijo en una economía pequeña con dos sectores. Revista CIFE, 15 (22), pp. 141-160.
Resumen: este libro tiene por objetivo plantear la pertinencia y la convergencia de la integració... more Resumen: este libro tiene por objetivo plantear la pertinencia y la convergencia de la integración en América Latina. Para ello, pertinencia se utiliza en el sentido de la eficiencia, la viabilidad, la realización, el impacto y los resultados de un proyecto, y convergencia como la confluencia o la concurrencia que es resultado de actos o acciones de converger. Por lo tanto, esta reflexión sobre la convergencia de la integración latinoamericana parte aceptando que se deben superar grandes asimetrías, integrando diversidades manifiestas. En este sentido, se dan respuestas que contemplan la necesidad de reforzar las instituciones para recuperar la gobernabilidad en los países y en los procesos de integración, así como el desarrollo de una gobernanza multinivel, en la que se logre mayor participación de la sociedad civil, con un particular trabajo en la armonización de políticas económicas y de medidas orientadas a lograr mayor cohesión social, que faciliten una distribución más equitat...
Desarrollo y Sociedad, 2013
La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR 1
Revista Economía, 2018
Resumen Este trabajo presenta un modelo de oferta y demanda agregada para la economía venezolana ... more Resumen Este trabajo presenta un modelo de oferta y demanda agregada para la economía venezolana suponiendo dos sectores productivos: petróleo y otras actividades, un régimen de cambio fijo y una restricción absoluta a la movilidad de capitales. Este modelo permite explicar de manera teoría cómo los shocks internos y externos causan los ciclos económicos, la inflación y cambian las otras variables que miden la actividad económica. Aún cuando los resultados son consistentes con la teoría económica, contrario a sus postulados tradicionales, una devaluación del bolívar produce una contracción del producto real y aumenta el nivel de precios, mientras que el aumento de los precios del petróleo provoca un aumento del producto real, pero su efecto sobre el nivel de precios es ambiguo. Palabras clave: ciclos económicos, demanda agregada, oferta agregada, regímenes cambiarios. Abstract This paper presents an aggregate demand and supply model for the Venezuelan economy assuming two productive sectors (oil and non-oil), a fixed exchange rate regime, and an absolute restriction to capital mobility. The model helps explain the impacts that fiscal, monetary, and productivity domestic and foreign shocks have on real output, inflation and overall economic activity in Venezuela. Although the results are consistent with economic theory, it is necessary to emphasize that, contrary to its standard postulates, a Bolivar devaluation contracts real output and raises the price level and that an oil price increase causes an increase in real output but triggers an ambiguous effect on the price level.
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019
This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of c... more This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of capital mobility in some Latin American countries. Mundell's (1963) and Fleming's (1962) models show that this effect could be very large or small (close to zero) depending on the exchange rate and the degree of capital mobility, and the potency of a fiscal policy is inversely correlated with the degree of capital mobility. Based on Mora's (2013) model, we argue that the multiplier might not be negatively correlated with capital mobility in these countries. In other words, the potency of fiscal policy could be small because the degree of capital mobility in Latin American countries is quite low. The empirical findings support our hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain around 1.40 in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Latin American countries are still large but could be larger if they become more financially integrated with the rest of the world. JEL Classifications: E62, E12, F41, O54
Revista Economía del caribe, 2019
La integración monetaria corresponde al proceso mediante el cual un conjunto de países previamen... more La integración monetaria corresponde al proceso mediante el cual un conjunto de países previamente integrados adoptan una moneda común. Desde 1987, antes de la creación del Mercado Común del Sur (Mercosur), se plantea la necesidad de avanzar en los acuerdos que permitan lograr la unificación monetaria de esta región y se han sugerido distintos enfoques teóricos acerca de cómo lograrlo. En este sentido, el presente artículo tiene como propósito ampliar las contribuciones teóricas realizadas acerca del tema y contribuir al debate sobre las alternativas a seguir para la construcción de la moneda única en el mercado común suramericano. Para ello se realiza una revisión de la literatura sobre el origen y los enfoques teóricos planteados a la integración monetaria del Mercosur y se analizan las lecciones que ha dejado la integración europea al acuerdo regional suramericano.
Revista Aportes para la Integración Latinoamericana, 2018
RESUMEN La integración monetaria corresponde al proceso mediante el cual un conjunto de países pr... more RESUMEN La integración monetaria corresponde al proceso mediante el cual un conjunto de países previamente integrados adoptan una moneda común. En el Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR), desde 1987 se plantea la necesidad de avanzar en los acuerdos regionales que permitan lograr la unificación monetaria. Desde entonces se han sugerido distintos enfoques teóricos-metodológicos acerca de cómo lograrlo. En este sentido, el presente artículo tiene como propósito presentar las contribuciones teóricas-metodológicas realizadas acerca del tema y contribuir a reabrir el debate sobre las alternativas a seguir para la construcción de la moneda única en el mercado común suramericano. Para ello se identifica el origen y los enfoques teóricos-metodológicos planteados a la integración monetaria del MERCOSUR. PALABRAS CLAVE Integración Monetaria, enfoque estructuralista, enfoque monetarista, MERCOSUR, unión monetaria europea.
ABSTRACT Monetary Integration corresponds to the process by which a set of previously integrated countries adopt a common currency. In the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), since 1987, the proposal for a common currency within the regional agreement was raised. Since then, different theoretical-methodological approaches have been suggested about how to achieve it. In this sense, the aim of this article is to broaden the theoretical-methodological contributions made on the subject and contribute to reopen the debate on the alternatives to follow for the construction of the single currency zone in the South American common market. In order to do so, the origin and the theoretical-methodological approaches to the monetary integration of MERCOSUR are identified. KEY WORDS Monetary Integration, structural approach, monetary approach, MERCOSUR, European monetary union.
Economía UNAM, 2018
Este artículo analiza las alternativas de integración monetaria que tiene el Mercado Común del Su... more Este artículo analiza las alternativas de integración monetaria que tiene el Mercado Común del Sur (Mercosur) como opción para recuperar el dinamismo de la década anterior. Para ello se analizaron los costos y beneficios de la implementación de un régimen de tipo de cambio fijo con intención irrevocable o un régimen de moneda única, mediante la sustitución de las monedas nacionales por una divisa de la región, fuera de esta o creada. A partir del nivel de correlación de los países del bloque con el país emisor de la moneda común se identificó el nivel de impacto de cada alternativa. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que la alternativa de crear e implementar una nueva moneda a nivel regional es una opción deseable debido a la correlación positiva en el crecimiento económico y en las tasas de depreciación de las monedas de los países del bloque, así como por la posibilidad de crear una institución comunitaria responsable de la política monetaria común con bajo sesgo inflacionario.
Abstract This paper analyzes the alternatives of monetary integration for the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) in order to recover the dynamics experienced during the previous decade. To this end, the costs and benefits of implementing a fixed exchange rate regime with an irrevocable intention or a single currency regime were analyzed by replacing national currencies with a currency from the region, from outside or created.
Journal of Economic Integration, 2019
This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of c... more This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of capital mobility in some Latin American countries. Mundell’s (1963) and Fleming’s (1962) models show that this effect could be very large or small (close to zero) depending on the exchange rate and the degree of capital mobility, and the potency of a fiscal policy is inversely correlated with the degree of capital mobility. Based on Mora’s (2013) model, we argue that the multiplier might not be negatively correlated with capital mobility in these countries. In other words, the potency of fiscal policy could be small because the degree of capital mobility in Latin American countries is quite low. The empirical
findings support our hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain around 1.40 in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Latin American countries are still large but could be larger if they become more financially integrated with the rest of the world.
Revista de Economía Institucional, 2019
This paper analyzes the convergence hypothesis and the impact of social policy on the economic gr... more This paper analyzes the convergence hypothesis and the impact of social policy on the economic growth of the six largest countries in Latin America between 1980 and 2010. Results suggest that social public policies have positively influenced growth in these economies. Particularly, there are non-observed variables (fixed effects) that positively affect the economic growth in Venezuela and Chile; however, there are other non-observed variables that may be negatively affecting growth in Brazil and Mexico. Regarding the convergence hypothesis, results reveal that the speed of convergence diminishes as real income rises, implying that these countries might be converging to their stable states.
This paper presents an aggregate demand and supply model for the Venezuelan economy assuming two ... more This paper presents an aggregate demand and supply model for the Venezuelan economy assuming two productive sectors (oil and non-oil), a fixed exchange rate regime and cero capital mobility. This model helps explain the impacts that domestic (fiscal, monetary productivity, etc.) and foreign shocks have on real output and the price level. Although results are consistent with economic theory, it is necessary to emphasize that a Bolivar devaluation contracts real output and raises the price level and that an oil price increase causes an increase in real output but triggers an ambiguous effect on the price level.
This paper uses a Cholesky Factorization in a var analysis to investigate the relative
importance... more This paper uses a Cholesky Factorization in a var analysis to investigate the relative
importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy during the 1960:i-2004:ii period. The economy is assumed to be driven by foreign (U. S. gdp and oil prices) and domestic (exchange rate, fiscal, monetary, inflation, and output) orthogonal shocks. As shown by the empirical evidence foreign shocks tend to be relatively more important than domestic shocks. Precisely, oil price and U. S. gdp shocks tend to have permanent effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates. Monetary policy only has temporary effects on output and the nominal exchange rate.
El presente trabajo examina los costos y beneficios de diferentes alternativas de unificación mon... more El presente trabajo examina los costos y beneficios de diferentes alternativas de unificación monetaria y los compara con los correspondientes costos y beneficios de mantener la discrecionalidad de una política monetaria independiente para los países suramericanos. De manera más precisa, se pretende evaluar mediante el análisis de correlaciones entre las tasas de inflación, correlaciones de los ciclos económicos, volatilidad del crecimiento económico y correlaciones entre la variabilidad de la tasas de cambio cuál o cuáles de los escenarios u opciones alternativas propuestas se consideraría más efectiva por sus efectos macroeconómicos. Los principales resultados de esta investigación señalan que dolarizar la economía sin conformar una unión monetaria es la alternativa más factible para algunos países suramericanos ya que representa menores costos en términos de volatilidad del producto y una menor tasa de inflación. Por otra parte, dadas las asimetrías existentes entre los países y la posibilidad de shocks asimétricos y el bajo grado de intercambio comercial entre los mismos, imponen severas restricciones a la unificación monetaria ya que los costos superan los beneficios que los países pudieran obtener en caso de seleccionarse esta alternativa.
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Papers by José U Mora Mora
ABSTRACT Monetary Integration corresponds to the process by which a set of previously integrated countries adopt a common currency. In the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), since 1987, the proposal for a common currency within the regional agreement was raised. Since then, different theoretical-methodological approaches have been suggested about how to achieve it. In this sense, the aim of this article is to broaden the theoretical-methodological contributions made on the subject and contribute to reopen the debate on the alternatives to follow for the construction of the single currency zone in the South American common market. In order to do so, the origin and the theoretical-methodological approaches to the monetary integration of MERCOSUR are identified. KEY WORDS Monetary Integration, structural approach, monetary approach, MERCOSUR, European monetary union.
Abstract This paper analyzes the alternatives of monetary integration for the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) in order to recover the dynamics experienced during the previous decade. To this end, the costs and benefits of implementing a fixed exchange rate regime with an irrevocable intention or a single currency regime were analyzed by replacing national currencies with a currency from the region, from outside or created.
findings support our hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain around 1.40 in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Latin American countries are still large but could be larger if they become more financially integrated with the rest of the world.
importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy during the 1960:i-2004:ii period. The economy is assumed to be driven by foreign (U. S. gdp and oil prices) and domestic (exchange rate, fiscal, monetary, inflation, and output) orthogonal shocks. As shown by the empirical evidence foreign shocks tend to be relatively more important than domestic shocks. Precisely, oil price and U. S. gdp shocks tend to have permanent effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates. Monetary policy only has temporary effects on output and the nominal exchange rate.
ABSTRACT Monetary Integration corresponds to the process by which a set of previously integrated countries adopt a common currency. In the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), since 1987, the proposal for a common currency within the regional agreement was raised. Since then, different theoretical-methodological approaches have been suggested about how to achieve it. In this sense, the aim of this article is to broaden the theoretical-methodological contributions made on the subject and contribute to reopen the debate on the alternatives to follow for the construction of the single currency zone in the South American common market. In order to do so, the origin and the theoretical-methodological approaches to the monetary integration of MERCOSUR are identified. KEY WORDS Monetary Integration, structural approach, monetary approach, MERCOSUR, European monetary union.
Abstract This paper analyzes the alternatives of monetary integration for the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) in order to recover the dynamics experienced during the previous decade. To this end, the costs and benefits of implementing a fixed exchange rate regime with an irrevocable intention or a single currency regime were analyzed by replacing national currencies with a currency from the region, from outside or created.
findings support our hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain around 1.40 in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Latin American countries are still large but could be larger if they become more financially integrated with the rest of the world.
importance of foreign and domestic shocks in the Venezuelan economy during the 1960:i-2004:ii period. The economy is assumed to be driven by foreign (U. S. gdp and oil prices) and domestic (exchange rate, fiscal, monetary, inflation, and output) orthogonal shocks. As shown by the empirical evidence foreign shocks tend to be relatively more important than domestic shocks. Precisely, oil price and U. S. gdp shocks tend to have permanent effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates. Monetary policy only has temporary effects on output and the nominal exchange rate.
distribution of income throughout the country.
or (at least) to remain relatively stable, around 1.40, in these countries in the short run;
however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that fiscal policy is still very potent, but given their economic structure differences, could be larger if Latin American countries become more financially integrated with the rest of the world.